Russia: international moves, West responses, Putin's revenge & future...Ukraine 5

Russia: Babushka fascism. Oligarch-driven inequity. Young people born since USSR folded fleeing. Declining GDP & birth rate. Recruitment troubles. Casualties. Nukes and chem weapons. Yikes!

Kamil Galeev (Wilson Center) @kamilkazani | 12:05 PM · Mar 20, 2022:
(Thread with photos, maps, video https://twitter.com/kamilkazani/status/1505576160729571334 )
Military casualties in Ukraine and the end of Russia as we know it
Let's look on the list of killed Russian generals:

Major-General Suhovetsky
Major-General Gerasimov
Major-General Kolesnikov
Major-General Mityayev
Lieutenant-General Mordvichev
Major-General Tushaev (Chechen)🧵

Not counting a Chechen general Tushaev, who's an officer of Kadyrov's personal army, Mordvichev was the highest ranked Russian general killed so far. He was a commander of 8th Guard Army of the Southern Military District (=close to Ukraine)

Groups of Russian military in social media look like a never-ending list of necrologies. Consider this group of Russian airborne VDV. A captain, a colonel-lieutenant, first lieutenant, general-major are all dead. Notice they're listing only officers, including high ranked ones

Let's go to comments. A deputy commander of an airborne regiment is killed. The first comment with Z avatar:
"My God 😭😭 Are they gonna bring us half of the regiment in coffins. Every day we see regiment 331. Condolescences 🙏 to family and friends. Eternal memory and glory"

Notice Z: its author fully supports Z-operation. And yet, she's shocked by the scale of casualties. Apparently even for Z-folk the endless stream of coffins from Ukraine looks disheartening. That's why trucks with dead and wounded Russian soldiers typically show up only at night

Consider that this all is happening in a quickly depopulating country which is growing old. Russia has few youths to send to Ukraine. Russia is now a pensionary country and it's fasicsm is pensionary fascism. Specifically babushka fascism - there aren't so may grampas around

They're urgently trying to lure whomever to the army. These are listings on Avito. Avito is a classified advertisements website, kinda Craigslist. There you can find jobs, real estate, cars and whatever for sale, services, etc. They're using every channel to boost recruitment

Some advertisments are aimed at imbeciles. A recruitment station is inviting people to join "reserve". They'll be paid only for manouvers: Officers - up to 10 000 roubles for 3 days, sergeants and soldiers - up to 5 000 rubles. Broke idiots who join gonna be sent to Ukraine

For 30 days of maneovers they're offering 30-75 000 rubles to officers. Before the war it was 500-1000 usd. Sergeants and soldiers would get 150-400 usd. Russian army is luring the brokes paying them almost nothing. That's important to keep in mind

here are also unconfirmed news that Russia will send to Ukraine adolescents from Юнармия - the Youth Army. That's a patriotic paramilitary organisation. I can't confirm that's true but with situation worsening they might. Sending there conscripts is illegal and they still do

Z-war heavily relies on minorities. That's understandable. First of all, there are not so many young Russian males to send, so you need to target minorities with higher fertility. Second, affluent will dodge so you send broke ones. Here you Siberian natives killed in Ukraine

Participation of North Caucasians is even higher than that. This cafe in Dagestan feeds families of Z-soldiers for free. Reportedly, Samilksy District of Dagestan with population of 29868 people sent 500 guys to fight to Ukraine. Soldiers, cops, National Guard whomever

That's quite ironic. Russian nationalist expansion in Ukraine heavily relies on people who are not considered fully human from the Russia perspectives. They are called хачи, чурки, обезьяны (apes) and yet they provide a huge share of recruits for Z-war

We must distinguish Chechnya from the rest of Caucasus. Dagestan or Ingush serve in Russian army like everyone else. In military terms they're regulars. But Chechnya is a kingdom of Kadyrov and Chechen army, police, FSB etc are his personal army. Watch this video, feel the vibe

When you look at Kadyrov's forces in Ukraine, you can see how clean they are, how fresh, not tired at all. They're heavily burdened with equipment. Why? Because they're terror and PR troops who try to skip the fighting. They're to police, torture, keep control, not to fight

Compare those Kadyrov's cyborgs with Chechen mujahideen of the First Chechen War. You clearly see a difference. Men who actually fought tried to dress lightly, take less burden and equipment. They were also quite dirty from the fight, unlike shining show-off troops of Kadyrov

Strelkov confirms it:
"In Mariupol Chechens didn't enter the battle. Why?
- Chechens are too darling to our commanders
- Someone has to pose for the victory photos. Chechens are fresh, masculine, jacked, gonna look great
- Commanders fear Kadyrov's anger for Chechen casualties"

How will these casualties impact Russian society? Well, Russian fascism is pensionary, babushka fascism. Media are crying how sanctions will hurt poor babushkas forgetting that babushkas are *the* main electorate of Putin. This demographic group supports Z most enthusiastically

Watch this video endorsing Z-invasion. It issued by an organisation called "Putin's troops" - отряды Путина. It gives you a good glimpse of Putin's electoral base. People imagine Russia as a "bear", hard, determined, bestial power. In fact Russia is insane warmongering babushka

There is however a problem. First, insane warmongering babushkas who comprise the bulk of electorate support Z. But it's not them who's gonna fight and die. It's the youth who are much less enthusiastic. Compare this anti-war protest demographics with that of "Putin's troops"

There's another problem. Look at these funerals in regional capital of Vladimir. They're burying the entire leadership of Vladimir SOBR, all four their lieutenant colonels. SOBR is a branch of National Guard dealing with the organised crime. And they're being massacred in Ukraine

This may be a huge consequence of this war. Ukrainian War may provide a final solution of the Siloviki question. Siloviki are police, state security, intelligence and other paramilitary. This "new nobility" as their chief called them are the real source of Putin's power

Ask yourself, why elites do even obey Putin? Why barons submit to the courtiers? Well, because if they disobey Putin gonna "send a doctor". Here Moscow siloviki are arresting Khabarovsk governor Furgal who didn't forge the election in Putin's favor

Russia is a vast and very unequal country. Socio-economic and other parameters of its regions vary greatly. Putin enforced obedience, but enforced it by brutal violence. Russian siloviki whom he directly subordinated to Moscow terrorised barons, making them obey to Kremlin

Putin's reign of terror was largely motivated by objective limitations. Here you see Russia divided into three zones, red, blue & white, with almost equal population - 48,9 million. Which means key economic regions of Siberia are unthinkably remote from Russian population centres

That's why Putin had to use rely on sheer force so heavily. In a country like Russia courtiers have to use a lot of force to keep barons at check, there's no other way. And these siloviki guys were the main tool of Kremlin: arms of the courtiers used to control the barons

And here they go. This is not a funeral of Russian soldiers nor of the SOBR leadership. It's the funerals of Putin's regime and of Russia as we know it. Very soon barons will have almost no reason for obedience. Balance of power within elites gonna be renegotiated. End of thread.
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Russia Is Losing Tens of Thousands of Outward-Looking Young Professionals
Jane Arraf | March 20, 2022

...The speed and scale of the exodus are evidence of a seismic shift that the invasion set off inside Russia. Though President Vladimir V. Putin repressed dissent, Russia until last month remained a place where people could travel relatively unfettered overseas, with a mostly uncensored internet that gave a platform to independent media, a thriving tech industry and a world-class arts scene. Life was good, the émigrés said.

For the new arrivals in Armenia, a sense of controlled panic overlays the guilt of leaving their families, friends and homeland, along with the fear of speaking openly and the sorrow of seeing a country they love doing something they hate...

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/03/20/world/middleeast/ukraine-russia-armenia.html
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The Kyiv Independent @KyivIndependent | 8:14 AM · Mar 20, 2022:
⚡️Ukraine’s military intelligence claim that Russia’s elites scheme to overthrow Putin to restore economic ties with Western countries.

Aleksandr Bortnikov*, head of FSB security agency, is allegedly being considered as Putin’s successor, according to Ukraine's intelligence.

* https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alexander_Bortnikov
margd: Bortnikov might be more flexible than Putin on Ukraine, but sounds like corruption and murderous repression in Russia would continue.

"Putin Lives in Historic Analogies and Metaphors"
Political scientist Ivan Krastev is an astute observer of Vladimir Putin. In an interview, he speaks of the Russian president's isolation, his understanding of Russian history and how he has become a prisoner of his own rhetoric.
Interview Conducted by Lothar Gorris | 17.03.2022

...How will Putin end? The Russians aren’t known for being particularly rebellious.

Krastev: People die. That also applies to Putin. The changes will be so significant that the regime will have to change in order to survive, just as will happen in Europe as well. Our economy will change, as will our understanding of freedom and democracy. Already, the media has changed in order to fight the disinformation coming out of Russia. That will have consequences.

DER SPIEGEL: How do you mean?

Krastev: We are closing down Russia Today and other outlets. We will become less tolerant.

DER SPIEGEL: We are betraying the freedom of opinion?

Krastev: Perhaps. Because of the pandemic and this war, the state again plays a larger role. In the pandemic, it was the welfare state that cared for its citizens and kept them alive. In this war, it is the security state that doesn’t just protect its citizens, but could also demand something from them: Namely, the readiness to make sacrifices. A friend of mine works at one of the biggest business schools. I told him: Everything you are teaching is useless. Just as useless as teaching socialism studies was in 1990. The world of globalization and free trade, in which the economy was only interested in bottom lines and not in politics, will be over. We don’t know what will happen in Russia after Putin, or in Europe, which currently finds itself in a romantic phase. But we shouldn’t make the same mistakes as in 1989. Back then, we thought the East would change dramatically, but not the West. Now, Russia is going to change dramatically. But so will we...

https://www.spiegel.de/international/world/ivan-krastev-on-russia-s-invasion-of-...

Biden's strategy with Putin is decades in the making (CNN)

Joe Biden always says foreign relations is about relationships, and he's been developing the one he has with Vladimir Putin for two decades. Biden warned that Putin had dreams of rebuilding an authoritarian empire going all the way back to his days as a senator from Delaware. On the campaign trail, he said repeatedly that he knew Putin didn't want him to win. Since the beginning of his time as President, Biden has relied on his sense of the Russian leader to guide his own response. It's even guided the way Biden deals with Putin in their conversations, repeatedly interrupting what he and aides see as the Russian President's strategy of going off on tangents meant to muddle and undermine... Biden has deliberately worked with allies abroad to deny the Russian leader the one-on-one, Washington vs. Moscow dynamic that the President and his aides think Putin wants. Publicly and privately talking about the war as a fight for freedom and democracy, Biden has left other leaders to speak with Putin...

Russia's invasion of Ukraine puts Israel in a tricky spot (CNN)

In Israel, when someone is trying to tread carefully, it is said that they are "walking between the raindrops" -- trying not to get wet. For several weeks now, Israel has been walking between the raindrops as Russia wages war on Ukraine... Israel and Russia have had a relationship of convenience after re-establishing ties following the end of the Cold War. Israel has a large Russian-speaking population... But beyond cultural connections, what Israel cares most about with Russia is its influence on Iran and its presence in Syria... Ukraine has a large Jewish population and Israel also hosts a large Ukrainian-born population. Economically, Ukraine provides at least 40% of Israel's grain imports and is an important hub of outsourced engineering work for Israel's high-tech industry...

How do we solve a problem like Putin? Five leading writers on Russia have their say (Guardian)

Tom Burgis, Catriona Kelly, Oliver Bullough, Ruth Deyermond, Peter Pomerantsev...

Russian mercenaries in Ukraine linked to far-right extremists (Guardian)

Russian mercenaries fighting in Ukraine, including the Kremlin-backed Wagner Group, have been linked to far-right extremism including an organisation designated by the US as terrorist, analysis reveals. Although Vladimir Putin says his “special military operation” is aimed at the “denazification” of Ukraine, an investigation has found links between pro-Russian forces and violent rightwing extremism, including those directly affiliated with Wagner...

‘Hell on earth’: survivors recount the assault on Mariupol
Residents who escaped from besieged Ukrainian port depict harrowing conditions for civilians
Guy Chazan | March 20, 2022

...On Sunday night, Russia gave Ukraine until 5am local time to decide whether to surrender Mariupol. Its defence ministry said it would allow Ukrainian troops to leave the city, but only if they lay down their arms... (President Zelensky declined.)

...Now residents face a new danger: evacuation to parts of Russia, where an uncertain fate awaits them. Potential evacuees are first questioned by Russian officials, who “test them to see if they are trustworthy”, said (Anna Romanenko, a Ukrainian journalist who is in close contact with Ukrainian forces there). “They check their social media feeds for anything anti-Russian.”

She said Russian forces sent a friend of hers from the Livoberezhnyi district to Novoazovsk, a small town to the east of Mariupol that is controlled by pro-Russian separatists. “They interrogated him, took away his Ukrainian passport and sent him to Rostov, across the border in Russia,” she said. She hasn’t heard from him since...

https://www.ft.com/content/af7996a9-8c16-4421-a5b3-390315d3c7dc
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If you think Russian concentration camps for Ukrainians are unthinkable in 2022, remember China has had concentration camps for Uyghurs in Xinjiang for years with minimal reaction from the world.
- Jim Sciutto (CNN) @jimsciutto | 10:32 PM · Mar 20, 2022
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...Gulag
During the Stalin era, and especially after World War II many Ukrainians were sent to Gulag; some of them were former participants of the Ukrainian Insurgent Army. Ukrainians contributed to the Norilsk Uprising and other gulag uprisings in 1953. Many (but not all) Ukrainians living in Siberia and Russia are the descendants of prisoners.3

Modern Russia
...In mid-2014, trains began to arrive in Siberia carrying Ukrainian refugees. Many refugees and immigrants were welcomed by Siberian natives and many settled in predominantly indigenous areas.

Many however, were unaware of their location upon their arrival, in one case, immigrants from Ukraine arriving in Magadan walked out of the plane confused - asking reporters where they were. Analysts assume Ukrainians are arriving in depopulated areas (i.e. Igarka) for the purpose of repopulation...

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ukrainians_in_Siberia

Threatening military trials of civilians who do not surrender to an occupying army violates the laws of war and underscores Putin’s criminal desperation. NATO can’t let this continue and retain its credibility
- Laurence Tribe (Harvard Law, Emiratus) tribelaw | 11:25 PM · Mar 20, 2022
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Christopher Miller (BuzzFeedNews) @ChristopherJM | 5:14 PM · Mar 20, 2022
A chilling new threat. Russia's Defense Ministry says Ukraine has until 5am on March 21 to surrender the besieged city of Mariupol, adding it'll let residents and troops who lay down arms leave. Anyone left behind "with the bandits" will "face a military tribunal." via RIA (Russian news agency?)

I have done a ton of reporting on "military tribunals" conducted by Russia and its separatist proxies in eastern Ukraine since the war began in 2014. Here's a disturbing look at what they are:

The Executioners Of Slovyansk
A Death Squad Unmasked As Ukraine War Grinds On Six Years Later
Christopher Miller | July 23, 2020
.
After an RFE/RL investigation, names and faces can now be put to the Russia-backed militants — including one with ties to a longtime Putin aide in the Kremlin — who ordered the extrajudicial executions of Ukrainians by firing squad and set a dark tone for the war in the Donbas...
.
https://www.rferl.org/a/the-executioners-of-slovyansk/30743132.html
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Ukraine: No surrender.
"There can be no talk of any surrenders, laying down of arms. We have already informed the Russian side about this," says Dep PM Iryna Vereshchuk. "Instead of wasting time on 8 pages of letters, just open a humanitarian corridor."
https://pravda.com.ua/rus/news/2022/03/21/7333165/
- Christopher Miller @ChristopherJM | 7:37 PM · Mar 20, 2022
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Russia has given Ukraine until 5am to surrender Mariupol, after which it says it'll let the 130,000 remaining civilians leave.
The language it uses for Kyiv's forces – "nationalists," "foreign mercenaries," "bandits" – leaves little doubt about what Russia has in store for them.
- max seddon (FT) @maxseddon | 4:18 PM · Mar 20, 2022

Escalating fears that Putin might do something crazy
A brief note on a very strange day
Molly McKew | Mar 17, 2022

This article is an excerpt of a longer piece that will be posted shortly on Great Power — but given the strange events of the past 18 hours or so, including Putin’s “fifth column” speech from the bunker and a lot of strange flight traffic out of Moscow to points east and south, I wanted to post this section now. Maybe, sitting in Estonia as I write this, it just looks worse from here and will come to nothing. But, something feels … not great. This excerpt examines how to think about what previously seemed unthinkable, and urges us to be prepared for every eventuality. Not to engage in a cycle of escalation — but to decisively end it when the moment comes.

https://www.greatpower.us/p/escalating-fears-that-putin-might

Russians killed 56 people at nursing home in Kreminna, Luhansk oblast, also kidnapping 15 survivors on March 11. “They just put the tank in front of the house and started firing,” authorities said.

- Anastasiia Lapatina (Kiev Independent) @lapatina_ | 8:25 AM · Mar 20, 2022

(US Rep) Ted Lieu @tedlieu | 8:26 PM · Mar 19, 2022:
Turkey has not deployed its S-400 missile defense system. It’s just sitting there untouched.
Why? Because of U.S. sanctions.
Turkey wants to get back into the F-35 program.
Transferring the S-400 helps Turkey solve this problem and provides Ukraine with air defense capabilities.

Phil Stewart (Reuters) @phildstewart | 8:17 PM · Mar 19, 2022:
The United States has informally raised with Turkey the unlikely possibility of sending its Russian-made S-400 missile defense systems to Ukraine to help it fight invading Russian forces, according to three sources familiar with the matter. @humeyra_pamuk
reports

Jonny Tickle (journalist) @jonnytickle | 6:05 AM · Mar 19, 2022:
Interesting form of anti-war protest in Russia: Printing messages on banknotes

LEFT:
"No to war. They're lying to us. Open your eyes"
https://twitter.com/jonnytickle/status/1505123405024088071/photo/1

RIGHT:
"Stand clear of the closing doors. The next station is North Korea"
(In the style of a Moscow Metro announcement)
https://twitter.com/jonnytickle/status/1505123405024088071/photo/2
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A young man this time... Will he become cannon fodder?

NowThis @nowthisnews | 2:33 PM · Mar 19, 2022:
Russian police arrested this protester for holding a blank sheet of paper, claiming it was ‘illegal activity’

Russian Protester Arrested for Holding Sheet of Paper
Russian police arrested this protester for holding a blank sheet of paper, claiming it was ‘illegal activity’
2:06 ( https://twitter.com/nowthisnews/status/1505251004274692101 )

Franak Viačorka @franakviacorka | 2:07 PM · Mar 19, 2022:
Senior Advisor to Sviatlana @Tsihanouskaya, a Belarusian human rights activist and politician who ran in the 2020 Belarusian presidential election as the main opposition candidate after her husband Sergei Tikhanovsky was arrested in Hrodna by Belarusian authorities.

Heroes! Belarusian railway workers disrupted the railway connection with Ukraine so that trains with Russian equipment could not be transferred to Ukraine.
This was confirmed by the head of the Ukrainian Railways, he thanked Belarusian heroes.

Photo-Belarusian trains ( https://twitter.com/franakviacorka/status/1505244711086444545/photo/1 , click-bait for John :))

Julia Davis (Daily Beast) @JuliaDavisNews | 6:06 PM · Mar 19, 2022:
But Russian state TV is promising them these difficulties are temporary and pretty soon the U.S. will lift all sanctions & even pay them reparations. Don't laugh, some of them probably believe it.

Quote Tweet
AlexandruC4 @AlexandruC4 · Mar 19
Russians standing in long lines in Saratov today in an attempt to panic-buy sugar.
Via @visegrad24
2:16 ( https://twitter.com/JuliaDavisNews/status/1505304836769824771 )

Simon Ostrovsky (PBS News Hour) @SimonOstrovsky | 9:44 AM · Mar 19, 2022:

Kremlin crooner Oleg Gazmanov at the pro-war rally Putin went to yesterday singing
“Ukraine and Crimea, Belarus and Moldova, that is my country.”
This clip was sent to me by an acquaintance in Chișinău (capital, Moldova) where it’s being shared with increasing alarm.

0:33 ( https://twitter.com/SimonOstrovsky/status/1505178331385417730 )

In Belarusian Morgues And Hospitals, Clues To Russian Military Losses In Ukraine
RFE/RL's (Radio Free Europe Radio Liberty) Belarus Service | March 18, 2022

...in the Belarusian regions bordering Ukraine, residents and medical workers have reported a rising tide of corpses and maimed servicemen being shipped out of Ukraine and then sent elsewhere for further treatment -- or burial.

More than 2,500 soldiers' corpses had already been shipped from the Homel region back to Russia by trains or by plane as of March 13, according to one employee of the Homel regional clinical hospital...

https://www.rferl.org/a/belarus-morgues-russian-soldiers/31760144.html
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NEXTA @nexta_tv · Mar 11
The #Russian Service of BBC writes that they have information about what is happening in the Mozyr morgue
Earlier, Belarusian and #Ukrainian independent media reported that hospitals in southern #Belarus were allegedly overfilled with the bodies of the Russian soldiers. 1/2

“The bodies are not even taken to a refrigerator, but to an ordinary room - 5x5 m2, they are stored there for a while, they rot, stink - then bodies are taken away somewhere.”
“The soldiers themselves do this everything is guarded only the head of the department has access.” 2/2

According to his BBC source, "no one knows how many dead bodies there are, but everyone is horrified by what's happening. Doctors think that somewhere there is a mobile crematorium or they just bury them somewhere".

Ultimatum to Putin and Zelensky: stop the war (Europe for Peace)

European nonviolent pacifists issue an ultimatum to the warring parties:
– stop the war immediately, declare a cease-fire, allow humanitarian organisations to come to the rescue
– start all-out negotiations to resolve the dispute between Russia and Ukraine.

If you do not comply with this unconditional ultimatum by 25 March, we will organise caravans of nonviolent pacifists from all over Europe, using all possible means, to travel to the conflict zones, unarmed, to act as peacekeepers among the combatants. These caravans will be identified with a white flag and the flag of peace.

We also demand that the UN accompany us with its peacekeeping forces as it should have done from the beginning of the conflict. We demand that all governments, especially NATO members, stop sending weapons to the parties, thus fuelling the conflict immediately.

Europe for Peace Campaign

Info and membership: info@europeforpeace.eu
http://www.europeforpeace.eu/

https://www.rawstory.com/fox-news-putin/
'Appalled' former Reagan official drops the hammer on Fox News for 'pernicious' Putin support

.....That's the view of Linda Chavez, who served in the Reagan White House as director of public liaison. She now is a senior fellow at the National Immigration Forum. Writing in The Bulwark, Chavez says, "Tucker Carlson, whom I watched the other night, nearly gave me a stroke when he started essentially apologizing for Vladimir Putin, which he does almost every night on his show."

Chavez notes, "It is so appalling what is taking place on Fox News. And it’s Tucker Carlson, it’s Laura Ingraham, it’s Greg Gutfeld—Greg, by the way, he is married to a Ukrainian woman. He just had to help his mother-in-law escape from Ukraine. So, I do not understand this.".....

***
The prime-time hires are doing exactly what Murdoch hired them to do ~ it is called outrage commentary and it attracts eyes and ears.

For the third day in a row, activists on the #Poland - #Belarus border have been blocking trucks bound for #Russia.
Activists say the length of the queue of trucks is about 50 kilometers.
Photo- ( https://twitter.com/markito0171/status/1505941172325425154/photo/1 )

- C4H10FO2P @markito0171 | 12:15 PM · Mar 21, 2022

Tom Nichols (The Atlantic) @RadioFreeTom | 3:07 PM · Mar 21, 2022
Huge if true. (Seriously.) That this is leaking in a Russian paper is huge, and that number is startling.

Quote Tweet
Yaroslav Trofimov @yarotrof · 1h
Komsomolskaya Pravda, the pro-Kremlin tabloid, says that according to Russian ministry of defense numbers,
9,861 Russian soldiers died in Ukraine and 16,153 were injured. The last official Russian KIA figure, on March 2, was 498. Fascinating that someone posted the leaked number.

Text-Russian news ( https://twitter.com/yarotrof/status/1505972650786672648/photo/1 )

NATO Air Command @NATO_AIRCOM | 6:30 AM · Mar 21, 2022:
#NATO has reinforced its defensive presence in the Eastern flank of the Alliance with more forces in the Air, land and sea domains.

As you can see below, the Allies are working together to enhance our posture due to the #RussianUkrainianWar

Map ( https://twitter.com/NATO_AIRCOM/status/1505854454930812928/photo/1 )
UK Delegation to NATO and 9 others

Russia:
Russia is only defending itself against NATO enlargement, and the conflict in Ukraine is only the result of Russia's fear of undermining its integrity. We only protect our homeland and nation.

Reality:
Map-NATO Russia borders ( https://twitter.com/PatrikMalory/status/1505865908073414661/photo/1 )

- Patrik Malory @PatrikMalory | 7:16 AM · Mar 21, 2022

Koch Industries’ campaign donations questioned after company’s decision to remain in Russia
Wow, pretty sleazy Koch.

There’s an easy way to help Ukraine without military escalation: cancel its foreign debt (Guardian)

A country battered and bruised by Russia’s invading forces needs space to breathe – not demands from hedge funds...

When one recalls all the accidents and near misses with yesterday's massive nukes, the number of tactical weapons laying around available for use for less than existential reasons (MAD) is scary:

The Smaller Bombs That Could Turn Ukraine Into a Nuclear War Zone
William J. Broad | March 21, 2022

...Analysts note that Russian troops have long practiced the transition from conventional to nuclear war, especially as a way to gain the upper hand after battlefield losses. And the military, they add, wielding the world’s largest nuclear arsenal, has explored a variety of escalatory options that Mr. Putin might choose from.

...Mr. Putin might fire a weapon at an uninhabited area instead of at troops...

...some U.S. politicians and experts have denounced the smaller weapons on both sides as threatening to upend the global balance of nuclear terror.

...No arms control treaties regulate the lesser warheads, known sometimes as tactical or nonstrategic nuclear weapons, so the nuclear superpowers make and deploy as many as they want.

...Russia’s atomic war doctrine came to be known as “escalate to de-escalate” — meaning routed troops would fire a nuclear weapon to stun an aggressor into retreat or submission. Moscow repeatedly practiced the tactic in field exercises.

...Concurrent with its new offensive strategy, Russia embarked on a modernization of its nuclear forces, including its less destructive arms.

...Iskander-M, first deployed in 2005...mobile launcher can fire two missiles that travel roughly 300 miles. The missiles can carry conventional as well as nuclear warheads. Russian figures put the smallest nuclear blast from those missiles at roughly a third that of the Hiroshima bomb.

...Before the Russian army invaded Ukraine, satellite images showed that Moscow had deployed Iskander missile batteries in Belarus and to its east in Russian territory. There’s no public data on whether Russia has armed any of the Iskanders with nuclear warheads.

...nuclear warheads could also be placed on cruise missiles. The low-flying weapons, launched from planes, ships or the ground, hug the local terrain to avoid detection by enemy radar. From inside Russian territory... “they can reach all of Europe,” including Britain.

...(NATO) in contrast to Russia, does not conduct field drills practicing a transition from conventional to nuclear war. (new smaller weapons developed under Obama, placement, nuclear war psychology & planning)

...Dr. Tannenwald, the political scientist at Brown University, wondered if the old protections of nuclear deterrence, now rooted in opposing lines of less destructive arms, would succeed in keeping the peace. “It sure doesn’t feel that way in a crisis,” she said.

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/03/21/science/russia-nuclear-ukraine.html

>22 margd: I was thinking maybe Ukraine had at least one "suitcase" nuke left and maybe they would use it when Putin spoke at the pep rally in the Russian stadium recently. More realistically perhaps a swarm of drones, as used in obstacle course races, might have been more effective there and without collateral damage.

It seems obvious what Russia's current strategy is: get close enough to the cities to use artillery, then bomb and shell them into nothingness. Or surround and starve them to death, like Mariupol.

So the question remains: will NATO just throw Ukraine under the bus? Nobody wants WWIII, but will the west be able to live with itself after Ukraine is turned into a depopulated wasteland with hundreds of thousands dead? Which looks likely if the war goes on for many more months.

One possibility is to approach Lukashenko, the President of Belarus. Offer him relief from sanctions if Belarus does not directly enter the war, and stops Russian troops from using Belarus as a base. That would relieve pressure on Kiev and northern Ukraine. If Lukashenko doesn't agree (and he probably won't), then the west should look for a way to oust him-- by supporting political opposition or a military coup. The war is very unpopular in Belarus-- as is Lukashenko.

Evan @evanifitkillsme | 2:34 AM · Mar 23, 2022:
Just some casual Russian propaganda TV programming about how nice it would be to invade Moldova, Poland, and all of the Baltic states simultaneously. If you had any doubts about potential intentions there…

Quote Tweet
Carl Bildt @carlbildt · 16h
We have no right to ignore what’s said on 🇷🇺 state TV these days. This unfortunately has all the potential for getting much worse.
1:03 ( https://twitter.com/evanifitkillsme/status/1506519843872276486 )
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Connection? :/

Should Finland join NATO? Eva poll:
Yes 60% (+34)
No 19% (-21)
It’s the highest level of support for NATO membership since Eva began polling opinion on the subject in 1998.
- Visegrád 24 @visegrad24 | 3:00 AM · Mar 23, 2022

>24 madpoet: ... One possibility is to approach Lukashenko ...
It is useless to even try it. The country in question is practically occupied and looks like thoroughly controlled not unlike the old Soviet times.

Kevin Rothrock @KevinRothrock | 10:16 AM · Mar 22, 2022:
The Russian Association for Electronic Communications predicts that 70,000–100,000 I.T. specialists might emigrate from Russia next month in a new wave of brain drain.

t.me
Интерфакс
Россию в апреле могут покинуть 70-100 тысяч человек в рамках "второй волны" эмиграции IT-специалистов, такой прогноз дали в Российской ассоциации электронных коммуникаций
https://t.me/interfaxonline/18665

Way past time to end fossil fuel subsidies in favor of renewable energy...
(Blowout: Corrupted Democracy, Rogue State Russia, and the Richest, Most Destructive Industry on Earth by Rachel Maddow)
--------------------------------------------------------------------

Oil prices dropped 30% in a week and yet, Americans aren’t seeing it at the gas pump.
A windfall tax on Big Oil’s excess profits would put money directly back into Americans’ pockets, where it belongs.
- Ro Khanna @RoKhanna | 10:08 PM · Mar 22, 2022

According to the Ukrainian Foreign Ministry, Russian forces have illegally removed 2,389 Ukrainian children from Donetsk and Luhanks oblasts to Russia. This is not assistance. It is kidnapping.

- U.S. Embassy Kyiv @USEmbassyKyiv | 6:22 AM · Mar 22, 2022
-----------------------------------------------------------------

Oliver Carroll (The Economist) @olliecarroll | 11:27 AM · Mar 22, 2022:
A small detail, but you can still smell burning Mariupol on the clothes and effects of those arriving into Zaporizhzha, days after leaving. “The city is in black smoke,” they say.

Talking to refugees from Mariupol here in Zaporizhzha. Heartbreaking tales of suffering. And these are the lucky ones - the ones who had cars and petrol. “There were old women on roadside begging to be given a lift - holding out money in one hand, icons in the other”
Photo ( https://twitter.com/olliecarroll/status/1506289659592298498/photo/1 )

>24 madpoet: The Russian assault has bogged down and at least to me and from all I’ve read it doesn’t appear that a long sustained military action on several fronts by the Russian military and its allies is logistically sustainable. There are several things factoring into this but the loss of tanks, helicopters and other military vehicles in large numbers and economic sanctions imposed by Western nations are two of the main ones. Wars are mostly won on logistics….though in these times if one actor has the capability of nuking the other actor (if anyone wants to call that and the aftermath a win) they can be won that way too.

What we’ve seen so far is an extremely poor performance by the Russian military as if those in charge actually believed they could roll into a bordering country with a bunch of untrained conscripts fresh out of high school and be greeted with flowers and hot chocolate. As in Iraq and Afghanistan these things don’t even work very well with a highly trained, well equipped and motivated military. Russia’s economy cannot sustain itself for long against the sanctions nor can they produce or keep up the supply and repair of essential military equipment. Their situation is untenable already.

Two more pieces from the International Crisis Group:

Mitigating the Gendered Effects of Ukraine’s Refugee Crisis

Over three million Ukrainians have fled the Russian invasion that began on 24 February. While EU states have granted arrivals real benefits, Kyiv’s rule holding back conscription-age men increases dangers to the families leaving. States should ensure that all refugees get the help they need...

Preserving the OSCE at a Time of War

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine risks incapacitating one of the only remaining multilateral spaces for cooperation between Russia and the West, the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE). Participating states must work to prevent this outcome and preserve the OSCE’s critical role in containing conflicts...

Live by the sword, die by the sword...

‘We want them to go to the Stone Age’: Ukrainian coders are splitting their time between work and cyber warfare
Sam Shead | Mar 23 2022

Over 311,000 people have joined a group called “IT Army of Ukraine” on the social media platform Telegram.
Ukraine is one of the biggest software development hubs in Eastern Europe.
Its coders are world-renowned.

...targets had included Russian government websites, Russian banks and currency exchanges.

...DDoS attacks...distributed denial-of-service attack is a malicious attempt to disrupt the normal traffic of a website by overwhelming it with a flood of internet traffic ( Russian oil energy giant Gazprom, Russian bank Sberbank and the government )

...help reach various European and U.S. websites and ask them to stop doing business with Russia, posting on social networks

...trying, via messaging services, to tell Russian citizens what’s really happening in Ukraine

...publishing Russian credit card details online

...now targeting Russian gas stations with a cyberattack

...Ukraine’s Digital Minister Mykhailo Fedorov urged people to join the channel last month, saying Ukraine is continuing to fight on the cyber front.

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/03/23/ukrainian-coders-splitting-their-time-between-da...

Poland expels 45 Russian diplomats, official says
Reuters | March 23, 2022

...suspected of working for Russian intelligence...

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/poland-considers-expelling-45-russian-diplo...

Minorities conscripted in to the Russian military

Kamil Galeev (The Wilson Center) @kamilkazani | 11:53 PM · Mar 22, 2022:
See images and discussion at https://twitter.com/kamilkazani/status/1506479259866394625
See images, no discussion at https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1506479259866394625.html

The minority factor in Russian army is vastly underrated when discussing the course of Ukrainian war. Firstly, ethnic minorities are not so much a minority there. Judging from the casualty lists, minorities are wildly overrepresented on the battlefields as the cannon fodder🧵

We don't have aggregated data for the entire Russian army. But we can get some idea of who fights in Ukraine from this list of wounded Russian soldiers lying in Rostov hospital. More than half are clearly Dagestani. Magomed (Muhammad) - the most common name in the list of wounded

It makes total sense. As you see almost all Russian regions with high fertility are either ethnic republics or ethnic autonomous okrugs. Caucasians and Siberian natives reproduce, providing a lot of draftable males. Plus they are mostly poor so can be easily lured into the army

That's true both if we look at the country in general, and if we zoom in to the regional level. Consider Astrakhan Oblast - region studied by social anthropologist @TBaktemir
It has many ethnic groups ordered into a complex racial hierarchy. It's 67,6% Russian and 14,8% Kazakh

Astrakhan Oblast officially confirmed 7 deaths in Ukraine
Arman Narynbaev
Ali Batyrov
Temirlan Jasagulov
Rysbek Nurpeysov
Anwar Irkaliev
Aynur Nurmakov
Alexander Bezusov
6 Kazakhs, 1 Russian. Being only 14% of population, Kazakhs give 85% casualties. Russians give 14% being 67%

Why? Well the answer is obvious. In Astrakhan Kazakhs stand low in racial hierarchy. It's mostly poor rural population, uneducated and without any real perspectives of social mobility. They're locked on the bottom of social ladder and ofc are looked down upon by other ethnicities

Isn't it interesting that in Astrakhan where Kazakhs are underprivileged they, according to official sources, comprise almost all military casualties in Ukraine? Actually it makes sense. Russian army is the army of poor and minorities. That can't be any other way

How do you get to the Russian army? Well, first you need to be drafted. Affluent people are selected out at this stage. People with social capital view military service as the fate of losers. So it's the poor and naive who don't know how (or why) to dodge who are drafted

Then you need to sign a contract. They'll be persuading, shaming, luring, seducing you into signing a contract. A person with social capital who accidentally got drafted will avoid it at all cost, call his lawyers, human rights advocates. So they probably let him go

While signing the contract is usually voluntary (though not always), they heavily concentrate on rural bumpkins. First, it's easier to pressure them, they don't know their rights. Second, it's easier to bribe them with salary prospect, they don't have career anyway

Thirdly, they are disposable. Imagine kids of Moscow intelligentsia getting killed in Ukraine - that's a headache. Their families gonna call lawyers, media, human rights organizations, give interviews. Meanwhile rural bumpkin moms will cry in the pillow and that's it. AMAZING

That's why Russian army is increasingly turning into the army of minorities. Yes, it has always been the army of country folk. But in the past they were mostly ethnic Russian. Nowadays however, there is not so much youth left in ethnic Russian countryside...

...My recommendations to encourage defection and sabotage should be considered in this context. Very soon Russian army will be filled by a number of people who don't share Russian imperial mythos and got there absolutely accidentally. Their motivation will be very, very low

The same was true in WWII. These cases were not published to maintain the illusion about the "unity of Soviet people" but in fact morale of Central Asian troops was very low and they were defecting to Germans en masse, much more than Russians. They didn't see it as their war

That makes sense. Imagine you are a rural Uzbek. Do you view yourself as Russian? Ofc not. Do you believe in Communism? Well, you have to perform all the rituals because authorities demand it but it's not very much interiorised.
Z-invasion is when (non-Chechen) minorities fight and die for the Russian ethnonationalist project. What do they get in return? Well, assimilation. Notice this poster - it's like "I'm Welsh but today we're all English". For your sacrifice you're allowed to abandon your identity

From the minority perspective Z-invasion looks like a worst trade deal in the history of trade deals ever. They'll bear disproportionate burden of war, taking huge number of casualties. If Z-invasion succeeds, they'll get forced assimilation and will be losing their autonomy

Z-invasion is largely the Russian ethnonationalism run amok. If allowed to succeed in Ukraine it will obviously choose Russian minorities as the next target, that's just too predictable. Why would they need to support it? That's the question many are asking today. End of 🧵

Russian special envoy resigns over Ukraine invasion, reportedly flees country
Anatoly Chubais played a leading role in privatizing businesses under Putin
Peter Aitken | March 23, 2022

...His role as Special Envoy – specifically regarding climate and sustainable development – appears a small one, but he has supported and assisted Putin for decades...

...it was (Anatoly Chubais's) work as an economic reformer with Putin that would create a truly lasting impression on the privatization of Russia’s industries. Chubais would go on to hold a number of top-level positions at various state companies, including RAO Unified Energy System of Russia.

Most importantly, Chubais maintained close ties with Western officials, much like his contemporary and former colleague, former Russian Foreign Minister Andrei Kozyrev.

Putin’s promise that Russia would "self-cleanse" itself of "traitors" may have driven Chubais to consider his stance on the war and his personal safety.

His resignation follows that of Arkady Dvorkovich, who served as senior economic advisor to Dmitry Medvedev. Dvorkovich stepped down from his role as the head of a state-backed tech fund after condemning the invasion...

https://www.foxnews.com/world/ukraine-war-russian-special-envoy-protests-war-fle...

>30 lriley: A bit surprised that Russia would be building its latest tanks with foreign components or materials, unless from its closest allies? (Then again, that might be something we'd do?) Perhaps even close allies want cold cash these days?

NEXTA @nexta_tv | 11:39 PM · Mar 21, 2022:
The largest Eastern European media. To let the world know.

#Russia's only tank manufacturer, Uralvagonzavod, has stopped its production.
The main reason for this is a lack of component parts.
Photo-tank plant ( https://twitter.com/nexta_tv/status/1506113379118764033/photo/1 )

Belarus Expels Most Ukrainian Diplomats

In a move that may signal the entry of Belarus' active participation in Putin's War, it expelled diplomats and closed the Consulate General of Ukraine in Brest. While the Ukrainian embassy in Minsk will remain open, it will function with 1 ambassador, Ambassador Ihor Kyzym, and 4 employees/aides.

Kyiv indicates it will respond but has not said how as of yet.

In other news, NATO announced it will provide Ukraine with equipment to protect against chemical and biological weapons as well as nuclear threats in addition to cybersecurity assistance and other support. Remember when Putin declared such foreign aid to Ukraine would constitute a declaration of war against Russia, provoking WWIII? Let's see about that.

Sweden is supplying additional anti-tank weaponry and Germany missile air defense same.

As for Putin's desperate attempt to recruit mercenaries into his invasion force, that's a big fail in Syria.

"On March 22, a meeting was held between the commander of the 8th brigade in the southern Syrian province of Daraa and General of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation Alexander Zhuravlev (acting as commander of the Russian group in the southern provinces of Syria). During the meeting, the Russian general demanded to form and provide a list of names and personal information of militants from the Syrian units and the Syrian Defense Forces, who are ready to participate in the war against Ukraine. The Syrian colonel did not give a clear answer. . .

So far, about 400 Syrian militants arrived to "reinforce" Russian conscripts, leaving the "supply chain" for more another logistical headache for Putin.

Jarrett Renshaw (Reuters) @JarrettRenshaw | 10:33 AM · Mar 22, 2022:
Poland said on Tuesday it had suggested to U.S. officials that Russia be excluded from the G20 group of major economies and that the suggestion had received a "positive response".
--------------------------------------------------------

Russia's ambassador in Indonesia says Putin plans to attend G20 summit
Reuters | 23 March 2022
https://www.reuters.com/world/russias-ambassador-indonesia-says-putin-plans-atte...
--------------------------------------------------------

Russia An "Important G20 Member", Can't Be Expelled By Others: China
Agence France-PresseUpdated: March 23, 2022

China has provided a level of diplomatic protection to Russia, which is increasingly isolated over its invasion of Ukraine, with its economy tied up by sanctions....

"The G20 is the main forum for international economic cooperation," Chinese foreign ministry spokesman Wang Wenbin told reporters. "Russia is an important member, and no member has the right to expel another country."

...Wang's comments follow a briefing by a top Washington security advisor on Tuesday indicating the US will lead pressure on Russia to be cut from international forums over its invasion of its neighbour...

https://www.ndtv.com/world-news/russia-an-important-g20-member-cant-be-expelled-...

US Officially Accuses Russia of War Crimes in Ukraine

U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken, ". . . based on information currently available, the U.S. government assesses that members of Russia’s forces have committed war crimes in Ukraine. . .

He noted that a "credible court with proper jurisdiction is 'ultimately responsible' for determining guilt."

“Russia’s forces have destroyed apartment buildings, schools, hospitals, critical infrastructure, civilian vehicles, shopping centers, and ambulances, leaving thousands of innocent civilians killed or wounded,” Blinken said. “Many of the sites Russia’s forces have hit have been clearly identifiable as in-use by civilians.”

>36 margd: For WWII we had to retrofit a lot of industry particularly our auto industry to meet the demands for that war. We sent a lot of war material then to both Great Britain and the Soviet Union…..and of course that was also driven by women’s labor on the home front. It was like we had the entire country on board. Since then we’ve had our military industrial complex which literally has raked in trillions of dollars. I would think we do get a lot of necessary parts from other countries. Whether we could do almost everything in country?—well probably a lot more if we had to. I don’t think any other nation is even close to as developed as our war machine but if there were to be one the most likely would be China which has become an industrial/manufacturing giant. Russia is an oil based economy.

What also hurts Russia is they don’t have a lot of real allies.

I’d note as well—we went into Afghanistan shortly after 9-11 an event that had brought most Americans together and the idea of getting Bin Laden was an argument that was popular with the population. For Iraq there was this long drawn out canard of a buildup orchestrated by the Bush 2 presidency—a narrative supported by all our major media outlets painting Saddam and his regime as a rogue state all set to use their WMD along with insinuations that somehow Iraq had played a part in 9-11. At least in most parts of the United States all that bs resonated with the majority of the population. Bush had the population mostly on board for his adventures in nation building—all of it inevitably ending in failure…..though some of GWB’s friends made loads of $’s.

Putin’s invasion OTOH seemed to catch the Russian public by surprise as well as even the troops he sent into battle. That home support doesn’t seem to be there.

>30 lriley: It is very surprising that Belarus has not sent troops to Ukraine yet, considering how much Lukashenko is Putin's puppet. It's a sign of how unpopular the war is in Belarus, that he is afraid to openly do so. There are even Belarusian partisans who are doing acts of sabotage and fighting against the Russian army, both in Belarus and in Ukraine. I still think this is key to stopping Russia. Overthrow Lukashenko, or turn him to the 'good side' and Putin will have a much harder time in Ukraine. It will also give some security to the Baltic States, especially Lithuania.

According to some estimates, 75% of Russia's 'battle-ready battalions' are in Ukraine. And 10% of those have been lost in the first month of fighting. Russian casualties (dead, wounded, or captured) could be as high as 30-40,000 soldiers. Russia has also lost over 500 tanks, over 100 aircraft, several ships, and other hardware. If these losses continue for many more months, even if Russia 'wins' the war, its army will be severely depleted and demoralized. It would be a paper tiger. Ok, a paper tiger with nuclear weapons... But this could be the last days of Russia as a superpower.

>39 Limelite: ". . . based on information currently available, the U.S. government assesses that members of Russia’s forces have committed war crimes in Ukraine. . . He noted that a "credible court with proper jurisdiction is 'ultimately responsible' for determining guilt."

That statement from a US president, while almost certainly true, would have a lot more credibility if his own country had not gone to such great lengths to protect members of its own security forces who have been accused of war crimes in its own wars, and if it had not refused to sign up to the world's "credible court with proper jurisdiction", namely the International Criminal Court.

ETA
Russian warship destroyed in occupied port of Berdyansk, says Ukraine
3/24/2022
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-60859337
________________________________________

Ukraine hits Russian Navy in port city of Berdyansk
Yaroslav Trofimov Daniel Michaels | March 24, 2022

Ukraine said it struck the Russian-occupied port facilities in the Azov Sea city of Berdyansk, Thursday, setting off a large fire and destroying a Russian ship as the war entered its second month.

The port has become a major logistics hub for Russian forces. Footage from the area showed smoke billowing from the berthing area and Kyiv said the attack destroyed the Russian navy landing ship Orsk.

The attack in Berdyansk, nearly 100 miles from the main frontline in southern Ukraine outside the besieged Ukrainian port in Mariupol, is a sign Kyiv has retained significant military capabilities as it pursues a large-scale conventional war against Russian forces.

Russian officials didn’t immediately confirm the attack. Footage from Berdyansk shows other Russian vessels fleeing the port after the explosions...

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/ukraine-hits-russian-navy-in-port-city-of-berd...
----------------------------------------------------

Misc. tweets:

https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1506953417935179793
10:26 ( https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7g5ZVwDqLRg&t=98s )

https://twitter.com/pmakela1/status/1506875012493496321
Looks like Ukrainians struck Berdyansk Port that Russia was using to disembark its naval infantry to the Mariupol front.
We see a Ropucha-class LST leaving the burning port.

https://twitter.com/pmakela1/status/1506875442392977408
https://twitter.com/IntelDoge/status/1506869914249875456
https://twitter.com/IntelDoge/status/1506871075816280065
https://twitter.com/ELINTNews/status/1506869804111704066
https://twitter.com/sentdefender/status/1506886581323448322
https://twitter.com/Archer83Able/status/1506885289519861760
https://twitter.com/DefenceU/status/1506891243799855105
https://twitter.com/laidbacksommeli/status/1506935018253438979

ETA:
https://twitter.com/JamesAALongman/status/1506928596018999300

Hosting Ukrainian refugees in Germany: one remarkable family's story.

SoyoungQPark @DecisionPark | 7:17 PM · Mar 23, 2022:
My phone rang and woke me up around 0:30. „you volunteered to host refugees, here is a mother with two kids and a cat. Cn you host?“ … „ok, when?“ … „now.“ 15 min later, they arrived with a volunteer. 🧵🧶 1/n

https://twitter.com/DecisionPark/status/1506772038211584003

Under Fire, Out of Fuel, No Air Support: What Intercepted Russian Radio Chatter Reveals (9:01)
Robin Stein, Christiaan Triebert, Natalie Reneau, Aleksandra Koroleva and Drew Jordan•March 23, 2022

The Times’s Visual Investigations team analyzed dozens of battlefield radio transmissions between Russian forces during an initial invasion of the town of Makariv, outside Kyiv. They reveal an army struggling with logistical problems and communication failures.

https://www.nytimes.com/video/world/europe/100000008266864/russia-army-radio-mak...

@TheRickWilson explains why so many in today's GOP are falling for Putin and how that's turned it into the #PartyofPutin

01:41 CBS News ( https://twitter.com/ProjectLincoln/status/1506818564552019974 )

- The Lincoln Project | 10:21 PM · Mar 23, 2022

Doesn't sound like these Russian generals are the ones to refuse a WMD order...
(Yeah, yeah, I know: "But, the Americans...")

Reportedly, Colonel-General Mikhail #Mizintsev is commanding the siege of #Mariupol. He also led the operation in #Syria.
Mizintsev is the Head of the National Defense Management Center of #Russia since Dec. 2014.
He destroys Mariupol, as he used to reduce Syrian cities to rubble

Photo--Mizintev ( https://twitter.com/revishvilig/status/1506175678072467464/photo/1 )

- Giorgi Revishvili (King's College London) @revishvilig | 3:47 AM · Mar 22, 2022
--------------------------------------------------------

ALSO
Photo and text ( https://twitter.com/Smetkosproud/status/1506238566682222595 )

- ANJELIKA🌻 @Smetkosproud | 7:57 AM · Mar 22, 2022
--------------------------------------------------------

Hospitals Bombed and Apartments Destroyed: Mapping Incidents of Civilian Harm in Ukraine
Bellingcat Investigation Team | March 17, 2022

(See updated map at https://ukraine.bellingcat.com/ )

https://www.bellingcat.com/news/2022/03/17/hospitals-bombed-and-apartments-destr...

U.S. Makes Contingency Plans in Case Russia Uses Its Most Powerful Weapons
David E. Sanger, Eric Schmitt, Helene Cooper and Julian E. Barnes | March 23, 2022

BRUSSELS — The White House has quietly assembled a team of national security officials to sketch out scenarios of how the United States and its allies should respond if President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia — frustrated by his lack of progress in Ukraine or determined to warn Western nations against intervening in the war — unleashes his stockpiles of chemical, biological or nuclear weapons.

The Tiger Team, as the group is known, is also examining responses if Mr. Putin reaches into NATO territory to attack convoys bringing weapons and aid to Ukraine, according to several officials involved in the process. Meeting three times a week, in classified sessions, the team is also looking at responses if Russia seeks to extend the war to neighboring nations, including Moldova and Georgia, and how to prepare European countries for the refugees flowing in on a scale not seen in decades.

Those contingencies are expected to be central to an extraordinary session here in Brussels on Thursday, when President Biden meets leaders of the 29 other NATO nations, who will be meeting for the first time — behind closed doors, their cellphones and aides banished — since Mr. Putin invaded Ukraine...

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/03/23/us/politics/biden-russia-nuclear-weapons.html

"America risks being seduced by its own public relations," says ⁦@EdwardGLuce, warning that much of the world has not turned on Russia over its war on Ukraine⁩. "Not for the first time, the west is mistaking its own unity for a global consensus."

The west is rash to assume the world is on its side over Ukraine
It runs the risk of mistaking a local consensus on Russian aggression for a global one
Edward Luce | March 22, 2022

One red flag is the west’s habitual tendency to claim moral leadership.

A second point is that the west is rash to assume its values are universal.

A third is that much of the world resents western sanctions.

https://www.ft.com/content/d7baedc7-c3b2-4fa4-b8fc-6a634bea7f4d
______________________________________________

A fourth factor might be empathy failure when white people are killing white people?

How can a Siberian military be so ill-prepared for cold weather??

Russians need to run their vehicles to keep warm which creates east targets for drones with thermals
From Illya Ayzin
2:11 ( https://twitter.com/LostWeapons/status/1506774971749584898 )

- Lost Weapons @LostWeapons | 7:28 PM · Mar 23, 2022
With comments at https://twitter.com/LostWeapons/status/1506774971749584898

Mark Hertling @MarkHertling | https://twitter.com/MarkHertling/status/1506977806261051394:
https://twitter.com/MarkHertling/status/1506977806261051394

Yesterday on cnn, I was asked several times about Ukraine "morale."
A difficult quality to define. It's something commanders (& all leaders) struggle to ensure.
There's tons of research on the subject. Even Clausewitz discusses it.
So here's a thread of some thoughts. 1/16

Clausewitz says that morale (& will) is critical. For soldiers & commanders.
He says this quality is found through moral & physical courage, the acceptance of battlefield responsibility, & suppression of fear.
Interesting. But how do you achieve that? 2/

On 2/24 I wrote a thread discussing how power on the battlefield is defined by resources and will. I said then the RU had advantage in "resources," but UKR had a greater advantage in "will." And I predicted UKR would win.
Will can often override resource advantage. 3/

I believe will & morale compliment each other.
There's been many articles on what contributes to morale & will. Some of them are random musings by business leaders, some are great research studies.
But my experiences show there are 10 key elements contributing to morale. 4/

Here are those elements (not in order of importance):
1. Trust in leaders, from the small unit level to the top of the "food chain"
2. Belief that leaders will share the individual's hardships.
3. The inherent self-discipline of individuals 5/

4. The discipline instilled by the leaders in a variety of ways.
5. Training...and the individual's trust in their own ability
6. Trust... in the quality of equipment
7. Trust...in your team. 6/

8. The provisions of physical comforts: food, sleep, warmth & the ability to contact loved ones.
9. Communication (about the situation & the related expectations: "what are we doing and why do we need to do it?")
10. The belief you are on a "winning team." 7/

It's not difficult to determine which side - Russian or Ukraine - has the advantage in these ten areas.

Examples:...( https://twitter.com/MarkHertling/status/1506977806261051394 )

I’m the Prime Minister of Estonia. Putin Can’t Think He’s Won This War.
Kaja Kallas | March 24, 2022

...My mother was only a 6-month-old baby when, in 1949, the Soviets deported her, together with her mother and grandmother, to Siberia. My grandfather was sent to a Siberian prison camp. They were lucky to survive and return to Estonia, but many didn’t.

...At NATO, our focus should be simple: Mr. Putin cannot win this war. He cannot even think he has won, or his appetite will grow. We need to demonstrate the will and commit resources to defend NATO territory. To check Russia’s aggression, we need to put in place a long-term policy of smart containment.

...First, we must help Ukraine in every possible way.
...Second, we must show the aggressor that we are ready to defend ourselves and, if need be, to fight.
...Third, we must paralyze the Kremlin’s war machine.
...Fourth, we must help Ukrainians fleeing the war.

...Taken together, it’s a tall order. Stopping the Kremlin’s aggression will require time and a lot of effort. But as NATO members, Europeans and human beings, it’s a task from which we cannot flinch.

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/03/24/opinion/nato-russia-putin-estonia.html?referr...

>13 margd: Belarusian morgues, contd.

JJ Green (broadcaster) @NATSEC09 | 7:25 AM · Mar 24, 2022:
We told you at the beginning of the war Russian troops were taking mobile crematoriums into battle with them.
A source says they’ve given up trying to use them.
Photo ( https://twitter.com/NATSEC09/status/1506955308626763779/photo/1 )

Aki Peritz (U Maryland) @AkiPeritz | 7:35 AM · Mar 24, 2022
I was wondering about those things; I’m no Russian mobile crematorium expert,
but I assume those machines eat up a ton of fuel—fuel the RU army doesn’t have.

See_You_Soon @SeeYouS19092169
For a crematorium to be useful your force has to be in control of the battle space after the fighting is done.

>53 margd: it’s a good list.

UK exposes Russian spy agency behind cyber incidents
The UK, together with the US and other allies, has exposed historic malign cyber activity of Russia's Federal Security Service (FSB).
From: Foreign, Commonwealth & Development Office and The Rt Hon Elizabeth Truss MP | 24 March 2022

KGB’s successor agency, the Federal Security Service (FSB) is behind a historic global campaign targeting critical national infrastructure.

Long list of cyber operations includes UK energy sector, US aviation and a Russian dissident in the UK targeted using sophisticated hacking and spear-phishing.

Foreign Secretary Liz Truss sanctions a Russian MOD subsidiary for carrying out malicious cyber activity on a Saudi petro-chemical plant...

https://www.gov.uk/government/news/uk-exposes-russian-spy-agency-behind-cyber-in...

My dad used to lament how far beautiful Lebanon had fallen with Middle East wars... He remembered it mid-19th c as being like the Riviera. An indication of things to come? Time to support UN's World Food Program(me)?

US announces $64 mln in emergency food aid for struggling Lebanon
Joseph Haboush, Al Arabiya English | 24 March 2022

“This situation is exacerbated by Putin’s war against Ukraine due to Lebanon’s reliance on imported wheat, primarily from Ukraine,” the US Embassy said.

https://english.alarabiya.net/News/middle-east/2022/03/25/US-announces-64-mln-in...

>51 margd: It's true. I am seeing this, living in China. While the Chinese government is officially neutral, all the news (which is state-controlled) is entirely pro-Russian. So most of the people believe that the U.S. somehow started the war, and Russia is 'defending itself'. Putin, here, is a brave hero standing up to NATO, while Zelinsky is mocked. They are also hearing how Russian soldiers are handing out aid and food to the 'poor starving Ukrainians.' Russia, by the way, is winning handily in the Chinese narrative.

But you can only get away with such disinformation/propaganda in a society where media (including social media) is tightly controlled. We also get Pearl TV (a Hong Kong channel, in English) which is more even-handed in its Ukraine coverage.

Lots to discuss, but the world we live in is at turning point: we should act rather than blindly letting events decide our future. Climate should be central or rest won't matter... ( >59 madpoet: China features prominently in full article.)

Putin and Xi Exposed the Great Illusion of Capitalism
Unless the U.S. and its allies mobilize to save it, the second great age of globalization is coming to a catastrophic close.
John Micklethwait and Adrian Wooldridge | March 24, 2022

...It’s easy to mock the shortsightedness of the West’s ruling class in 1913 — for not seeing how the rise of Germany and the complex web of alliances between the Great Powers could turn an assassination in Sarajevo into a global conflict. Clio, the muse of history, is always wise after the event, but future generations could well ask the same question about us: How could they not know?

...just as World War I mattered for reasons beyond the slaughter of millions of human beings, this (Russo-Ukraine) conflict could mark a lasting change in the way the world economy works — and the way we all live our lives, however far we are from the carnage in Eastern Europe. The “inevitable” integration of the world economy has slowed, and the various serpents in our paradise — from ethnic rivalries to angry autocracies to a generalized fury with the rich — are slithering where they will.

That doesn’t mean that globalization is an unalloyed good. By its nature, economic liberalism exaggerates the downsides of capitalism as well as the upsides: Inequality increases, companies sever their local roots, losers fall further behind, and — without global regulations — environmental problems multiply. Yet liberalism has also dragged more than a billion people out of poverty in the past three decades and, in many cases, promoted political freedom along with economic freedom. The alternatives, historically speaking, have been wretched. Right now, the outcome that we have been sliding toward seems one in which an autocratic East gradually divides from — and then potentially accelerates past — a democratic but divided West.

...As German Chancellor Olaf Scholz has proclaimed, we are at a Zeitenwende — a turning point.

...Biden should pursue a two-stage strategy: First, deepen economic integration among like-minded nations; but leave the door open to autocracies if they become more flexible...

Constructing such a “new world order” will be laborious work. But the alternative is a division of the world into hostile economic and political blocs that comes straight out of the 1930s. Biden, Johnson, Scholz and Macron should think hard about how history will judge them. Do they want to be compared to the policymakers in the aftermath of World War I, who stood by impassively as the world fragmented and monsters seized the reins of power? Or would they rather be compared to their peers after World War II, policymakers who built a much more stable and interconnected world?

...John Maynard Keynes...first came to prominence as a decrier of the Treaty of Versailles — and the know-nothing statesmen of the time. But at the end of World War II he participated in something that was much more constructive.

In 1944, with the defeat of Hitler seemingly inevitable, President Franklin Roosevelt invited the Allied powers to a conference to design the postwar order — under the aegis of Keynes and, on the American side, the economist Harry Dexter White.

...the most consequential conference since the disastrous Paris Peace Conference in 1919. Keynes, no longer a protectionist, played a leading role in designing the International Monetary Fund, the World Bank, and the infrastructure of the postwar Western order of stable exchange rates. He helped persuade the U.S. to lead the world rather than retreating into itself. He helped create the America of the Marshall Plan. This Bretton Woods settlement created the regime that eventually won the Cold War and laid the foundations for the second age of globalization.

...the world that (Keynes) did so much to create lived on. That world does not need to die in the streets of Kyiv. But it is on course to do so, unless the leaders meeting this week seize the moment to create something better.

https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2022-03-24/ukraine-war-has-russia-s-p...

>59 madpoet: I suspect the only Ukrainians being fed by the Russian military are the poor souls they hauled off to God-knows-where...
Basturds:

Maria Avdeeva (Eur Expert Assn) @maria_avdv | 3:21 PM · Mar 24, 2022:
Russia launched a missile attack on a humanitarian aid center in Kharkiv this afternoon.
People queueing to receive food were hit by long-range missile.
According to preliminary data, 6 civilians were killed, another 15 were injured.
This is another cynical act of war crime.
Photo ( https://twitter.com/maria_avdv/status/1507075098678894602/photo/1 )

This is a tail section of the Hurricane rocket next to the humanitarian aid center in Kharkiv.
Hurricane or Uragan is a heavy multiple rocket launcher with cluster elements, carrying hundreds of fragments.
Photo ( https://twitter.com/maria_avdv/status/1507083016195256328/photo/1 )

A Tentative First Look at Options for Peace Operations in Ukraine (International Crisis Group)

Prior to this week’s NATO summit in Brussels, Poland stirred up discussions of sending an international peacekeeping force to Ukraine. The concept, which Polish officials have emphasised is at a “preliminary” stage, is to deploy a force that could assist with humanitarian operations and would be robust enough to defend itself in combat. The proposal is unlikely to gain traction since, like the idea of a NATO-enforced no-fly zone over Ukraine, it raises the risks of direct confrontation with Russia. But peacekeeping operations come in many shapes and sizes, and it is possible that some sort of international presence will eventually be needed to support a cessation of hostilities in Ukraine. Policymakers should not let speculation about unrealistic peacekeeping options distract them from the immediate priority, which is to facilitate a negotiated settlement to the war. But it is still useful to think about what role some kind of peace operation – which is more likely to involve peace observers than fully fledged combat troops – could play if such a settlement does become feasible...

Macron says France will spearhead operation to evacuate Mariupol
Maïa de La Baume | March 25, 2022

French President Emmanuel Macron on Friday said France would spearhead an “exceptional humanitarian operation” alongside Turkey and Greece to evacuate the Ukrainian city of Mariupol, which has been under siege by Russian forces for three weeks.

“We are going to launch a humanitarian operation in conjunction with Turkey and Greece to evacuate all those who wish to leave Mariupol,” Macron told reporters following a two-day European Council summit.

Macron gave few details but said the operation would take place “the earlier the better,” and would be conducted “in coordination” with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and the Ukrainian authorities. The French leader also said he was in touch with the mayor of Mariupol.

The French leader also said he would discuss the Mariupol operation with Russian President Vladimir Putin “within 48 to 72 hours.”...

https://www.politico.eu/article/macron-france-spearhead-exceptional-operation-ev...
_____________________________________________

Meanwhile concern that in trying to help refugees from Russian side of border, International Committee for Red Cross might become complicit in Russian deportations of unwilling people. Sounds like it had an office before in nearby Rostov and is seeking to re-open? I think the Government of Canada is matching donations of its citizens to the Red Cross:

Olga Tokariuk (independent journalist) @olgatokariuk
My friend is desperate that her mom doesn't have a choice to go to Ukraine-controlled territory instead of Russia.
She is also worried that ICRC will be working with Russia in Rostov. 'Why does Russia deport people?
Why does ICRC help the aggressor? Russia is taking hostages'

- Olga Tokariuk (independent journalist) @olgatokariuk | 10:55 AM · Mar 25, 2022
-------------------------------------------------------

Russian Federation: ICRC helps Ukrainian families
ICRC | 28 April 2016
https://www.icrc.org/en/document/icrc-helps-ukrainian-families-russia
--------------------------------------------------------

Red Cross seeks to open office near Russia-Ukraine border
International Committee of Red Cross head Peter Maurer makes request to Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov in Moscow
Elena Teslova | 24.03.2022

"I would like to get your support in strengthening the logistics structure in Russia in order to improve our work in the Donbas and other parts of Ukraine under control of the Russian armed forces,” he told Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov in Moscow. “To do this, we have sent a request to open an office in Rostov-on-Don – this will be a good starting point."

https://www.aa.com.tr/en/russia-ukraine-war/red-cross-seeks-to-open-office-near-...
--------------------------------------------------------

Red Cross Legitimizing Russian Occupation
Hybrid Warfare Analytical Group
25.03.2022, 11:47
Оригінал статті - на сайті Українського кризового медіа-центру: https://uacrisis.org/en/red-cross-legitimizing-russian-occupation
https://uacrisis.org/en/red-cross-legitimizing-russian-occupation
--------------------------------------------------------

Echoes of this in past crises elsewhere, e.g. ~ $$ being redirected or not spent?
Desperate people v a less than nimble, over-bureaucratic NGO?

Ukrainian Civil Society Appeals to ICRC for Immediate Action
March 25, 2022
https://twitter.com/Raskl20/status/1507671286201212932/photo/1
--------------------------------------------------------

ICRC ICRC | 7:15 AM · Mar 26, 2022:
We never help organize or carry out forced evacuations or deportation.
In Ukraine and everywhere we work worldwide.
We were part of two safe passages this month out of Sumy to Lubny, Ukraine.
Our role was to make sure people who wanted to leave the city could do so safely.

Kevin Rothrock (Meduza editor) @KevinRothrock | 8:12 PM · Mar 25, 2022
Passengers riding the train between Moscow and Kaliningrad (isolated bit of Russia on Baltic coast)
see this when passing through Vilnius (capital of Lithuania).
There’s also an audio message that says the same line written on the posters:
“Today Putin is killing Ukraine’s civilians. Do you consent to this?”

Photos
https://twitter.com/KevinRothrock/status/1507510779637022725/photo/1
https://twitter.com/KevinRothrock/status/1507510779637022725/photo/2
https://twitter.com/KevinRothrock/status/1507510779637022725/photo/3

from https://t.me/stranaua/32950

Russia starts military drill on disputed islands off Japan
KYODO NEWS | March 25, 2022

The Russian military said Friday it has started a military exercise involving more than 3,000 troops on a chain of islands including those disputed with Japan, Russian news agency Interfax reported.

It is the first drill on the disputed islands off Japan's northernmost main island of Hokkaido since Russia's Foreign Ministry announced earlier this week it will suspend territorial talks with Japan. Russia is withdrawing from the talks over Tokyo's sanctions against Moscow in the wake of the invasion of Ukraine.

Some hundreds of military vehicles are participating in the drill under a scenario of launching a counterattack against enemy forces attempting to land.

Russia is seen as building up its forces on the islands, called the Northern Territories by Japan and the Southern Kurils by Russia. The territorial dispute has prevented the two countries from concluding a postwar peace treaty.

Japan claims the Soviet Union illegally seized the four islands -- Kunashiri, Etorofu, Shikotan and the Habomai group of islets -- soon after Japan's surrender in World War II in August 1945, while Moscow argues the move was legitimate.

https://english.kyodonews.net/news/2022/03/c0868f95954a-russia-starts-military-d...

Help (FBI Washington Field Office) find Yevgeniy Viktorovich Prigozhin.
He allegedly conspired to defraud the U.S. by interfering with the functions of the Federal Election Commission, Justice Department, and State Department (2014-2018).
Visit http://tips.fbi.gov to submit a tip. http://ow.ly/oSlT50Ie593

Wanted poster
http://ow.ly/oSlT50Ie593
https://twitter.com/FBIWFO/status/1507387020183805974/photo/1

- FBI Washington Field @FBIWFO | 12:00 PM · Mar 25, 2022

⚡️Sowing begins in 11 regions of Ukraine.
Ukrainian Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal made the announcement on March 25, Ukrinform news agency reports.

- The Kyiv Independent @KyivIndependent | 9:21 PM · Mar 25, 2022

(Fingers crossed for a bountiful crop!)

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, March 25
Mar 25, 2022 - Press ISW*

The Russian General Staff issued a fictitious report on the first month of the Russian invasion of Ukraine on March 25 claiming Russia’s primary objective is to capture the entirety of Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts.

Rudskoi’s comments were likely aimed mainly at a domestic Russian audience and do not accurately or completely capture current Russian war aims and planned operations.

Rudskoi’s assertion that securing the unoccupied portions of Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts was always the main objective of Russia’s invasion is false.

Russia continues efforts to rebuild combat power and commit it to the fight to encircle and/or assault Kyiv and take Mariupol and other targets, despite repeated failures and setbacks and continuing Ukrainian counter-attacks.

The absence of significant Russian offensive operations throughout most of Ukraine likely reflects the inability of the Russian military to generate sufficient combat power to attack rather than any decision in Moscow to change Russia’s war aims or concentrate on the east.

The West should not over-read this obvious messaging embedded in a piece of propaganda that continued very few true statements.

Key Takeaways

The Russian General Staff is attempting to adjust the war’s narrative so make it appear that Russia is achieving its aims and choosing to restrict operations when in fact it is not achieving its objectives and is being forced to abandon large-scale offensive operations because of its own failures and losses as well as continuing skillful Ukrainian resistance.
Ukrainian forces claimed to kill the commander of Russia’s 49th Combined Arms Army, operating around Kherson.
Ukrainian counterattacks northwest of Kyiv made further minor progress in the past 24 hours.
Ukrainian forces additionally conducted a successful counterattack east of Kyiv in the past 24 hours, pushing Russian forces east from Brovary.
Russian attempts to encircle Chernihiv remain unsuccessful.
The military situation in northeastern Ukraine did not change in the past 24 hours.
Russian forces continue to take Mariupol street-by-street and have entered the city center.
Russian forces did not conduct any offensive operations around Kherson in the past 24 hours.

(maps https://twitter.com/TheStudyofWar/status/1507476706151571458/photo/1 , https://twitter.com/TheStudyofWar/status/1507476706151571458/photo/2 , https://twitter.com/TheStudyofWar/status/1507476706151571458/photo/3 )

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessm...

* The Institute for the Study of War advances an informed understanding of military affairs through reliable research, trusted analysis, and innovative education. We are committed to improving the nation’s ability to execute military operations and respond to emerging threats in order to achieve U.S. strategic objectives. ISW is a non-partisan, non-profit, public policy research organization.
________________________________________________

ETA. A Ukrainian perspective:

Ukraine reaches breaking point in Russia’s war
Illia Ponomarenko | March 26, 2022
https://kyivindependent.com/national/%E2%80%8B%E2%80%8Bukraine-reaches-breaking-...

“On Friday, a western official reported that a Russian colonel had been deliberately run over and killed by his own men, as a result of the scale of losses taken by his brigade.

The killing of the commander of the 37th motor rifle brigade "gives an insight into some of the morale challenges that Russian forces are having", the official said.”

Russian general Yakov Rezantsev killed in Ukraine https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-60807538

Ukraine minister Anton Gerashchenko has claimed Russian defence minister Sergey Shoigu had suffered a heart attack after a heated confrontation with Russian President Vladimir Putin where Putin squarely blamed him for the 'failure' of his special military operation in Ukraine. The Ukraine minister has claimed that this is the reason why the defence minister, the man believed to be the second mastermind of the war, was not seen in the public since March 11. On March 24, the Russian defence minister was seen on television again. It is, however, not known whether the footage was new or old...

https://www.hindustantimes.com/world-news/russias-defence-minister-got-heart-att...
------------------------------------------------------------

Tired-looking Russian defence minister Sergei Shoigu, 66, appears on TV as Kremlin battles to dispel rumours that he has suffered a heart attack

Sergei Shoigu, 66, appeared tired with a raspy voice in a broadcasted meeting
The Russian defence minister read from notes in an apparent crisis session
There is also speculation that Shoigu had sought to resign at the start of the war

Elmira Tanatarova and Will Stewart | 26 March 2022
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10654653/Tired-looking-Russian-defence-...

Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine - Ukrainian Parliament @ua_parliament | 5:18 PM · Mar 24, 2022:
⚡️ The first exchange of war hostages occurred on President @ZelenskyyUa's order. Additionally, today, #Ukraine exchanged 11 Russian sailors we rescued from a sunken ship near #Odesa to 19 Ukrainian sailors (authors of the legendary phrase "Russian warship go f*** yourself")
👇
Photo ( https://twitter.com/ua_parliament/status/1507104491597881349/photo/1 )

‘Hell on earth’: survivors recount the assault on Mariupol | Free to read
Residents who escaped from besieged Ukrainian port depict harrowing conditions for civilians
Guy Chazan | March 20 2022
https://www.ft.com/content/af7996a9-8c16-4421-a5b3-390315d3c7dc
-------------------------------------------------------

Kremlin attempts to starve civilians in Mariupol are not only cruel & inhumane, but run counter to Russia's own vote & the broader 2018 UN Security Council decision condemning the use of starvation & denial of humanitarian access as war crimes. Putin's depravity knows no bounds.

- Senate Foreign Relations Committee @SFRCdems | 9:04 PM · Mar 22, 2022

Ukraine Starts Using Facial Recognition To Identify Dead Russians And Tell Their Relatives
Thomas Brewster | Mar 23, 2022

Ukraine’s deputy prime minister says the tech will help provide transparency about how many Russian soldiers are dying in the war. Critics say the use of facial recognition in war zones is a disaster in the making.

...Albert Fox Cahn, founder of the Surveillance Technology Oversight Project, said the introduction of facial recognition into the war could be disastrous, even if Ukraine is using it to tell the truth to Russian citizens. “This is a human rights catastrophe in the making. When facial recognition makes mistakes in peacetime, people are wrongly arrested. When facial recognition makes mistakes in a war zone, innocent people get shot,” he told Forbes.

“I’m terrified to think how many refugees will be wrongly stopped and shot at checkpoints because of facial recognition error...

https://www.forbes.com/sites/thomasbrewster/2022/03/23/ukraine-starts-using-faci...

Inside the terror at Mariupol’s bombed theater: ‘I heard screams constantly’
Loveday Morris and Anastacia Galouchka | March 25, 2022
https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/03/25/ukraine-mariupol-theater-deaths/

One interesting number that keeps coming up in reporting on the Russian war: 150,000 Russian troops deployed to Ukraine. When I look up Russia's current population, I get a number of ~144 million. This means that one Russian in a thousand is currently witnessing their country's assault on their neighbor.

Every soldier who returns will be a witness, and every soldier who does not return will be ten witnesses.
I may be overly optimistic, but I have to wonder: Can Putin's regime survive the end of this war? Could this be the mistake that leads to Russian democracy?

A top Ukrainian police commander offers himself to Russia in exchange for the children of Mariupol.
Valerie Hopkins | March 25, 2022

A high-profile police commander who helped liberate Mariupol in 2014 after a monthlong occupation by Russian-backed forces has offered to give himself up in exchange for the safe passage of children who remain in the now besieged city.

“Today, many children remain in the completely destroyed city, who, if not saved now, will die in the coming days,” the police commander, Vyacheslav Abroskin, wrote on Facebook. “Time is running out. I appeal to the Russian occupiers — give the opportunity to take the children out of Mariupol. Instead of living children, I offer myself.”

...Mr. Abroskin asked for three days inside the city to find all the children he could and organize their evacuation.

“At the last checkpoint during the return trip with the children, I will surrender,” he wrote. “This is my personal initiative. My life belongs to me alone, and I offer it in exchange for the lives of children who still remain in Mariupol.”

...“I am included in your sanctions lists,” Mr. Abroskin told Russia. “I’m looking for you. You plotted to assassinate me. Dozens of you were killed, and thousands of your accomplices were detained with my participation.”

https://www.nytimes.com/live/2022/03/25/world/ukraine-russia-war#a-top-ukrainian...

Shaun Walker (Guardian) @shaunwalker7 | 7:45 PM · Mar 26, 2022
Chilling footage from the drive out of Mariupol

1:39 ( https://twitter.com/shaunwalker7/status/1507866466208686080 )
From ТРУХА⚡️English
_________________________________________________

I was inside when the Russians bombed Mariupol drama theater: survivor’s story
Anna Romanenko

Nadiya was hiding in the basement of the Mariupol drama theater with her daughter, son-in-law, grandson, and elderly grandmother when Russian troops dropped a heavy bomb on the building, despite the enormous sign “children” next to it. At least 300 civilians were killed by the attack, according to city officials. Here is her eyewitness account of what she and her family witnessed that day...

https://euromaidanpress.com/2022/03/26/horror-and-terror-in-mariupol-eyewitness-...

Whatever the advisability of the "Putin must go" line in @POTUS's speech,
Putin is the about the last person on the planet who should complain about interference in the internal affairs of another country.

- David Axelrod (Obama politico) @davidaxelrod | 4:32 PM · Mar 26, 2022

>44 John5918: John, you don't understand: it's okay when we do it.
Look how we punished the war criminals who carried out a prolonged (several hours) massacre of women and children at My Lai. (Does anyone remember?)

>78 margd: Still a stupid thing to say. Validates the Russians' worst fears.

>80 davidgn: Press coverage reminded me of a tech editing class. Biden said "can not", but I'm hearing it reported as "must not", "should not". Dr. Jill would not be assigning them As, I bet!!

"For God's sake, this man cannot remain in power."

The Making of Vladimir Putin
Tracing Putin’s 22-year slide from statesman to tyrant.
Roger Cohen | March 26, 2022

...President Vladimir V. Putin addressed the German Parliament on Sept. 25, 2001. “Russia is a friendly European nation,” he declared. “Stable peace on the continent is a paramount goal for our nation.”

...Today, all togetherness shredded, Ukraine burns, bludgeoned by the invading army Mr. Putin sent to prove his conviction that Ukrainian nationhood is a myth. More than 3.7 million Ukrainians are refugees; the dead mount up in a month-old war; and that purring voice of Mr. Putin has morphed into the angry rant of a hunched man dismissing as “scum and traitors” any Russian who resists the violence of his tightening dictatorship.

Mr. Putin is an enigma, but he is also the most public of figures. Seen from the perspective of his reckless gamble in Ukraine, a picture emerges of a man who seized on almost every move by the West as a slight against Russia — and perhaps also himself. As the grievances mounted, piece by piece, year by year, the distinction blurred. In effect, he became the state, he merged with Russia, their fates fused in an increasingly Messianic vision of restored imperial glory.

From the Ashes of Empire
An Authoritarian’s Rise
A Clash With the West
The Threat of NATO Expansion
Us Versus Them
A Leader Emboldened

The 22-year arc of Mr. Putin’s exercise of power is in many ways a study of growing audacity. Intent at first at restoring order in Russia and gaining international respect — especially in the West — he became convinced that a Russia rich in oil revenue and new high-tech weaponry could strut the world, deploy military force and meet scant resistance.

...Ukraine, by ousting its Moscow-backed leader in a bloody popular uprising in February 2014, and so de facto rejecting Mr. Putin’s multibillion-dollar blandishments to join his Eurasian Union rather than pursue an association agreement with the European Union, committed the unpardonable This, for Mr. Putin, was the devouring specter of color revolution made real. It was, he insisted, an American-backed “coup.”...

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/03/26/world/europe/vladimir-putin-russia.html

How the sex trade preys on Ukraine's refugees (BBC)

Displaced and disoriented, often with no idea where to go next, refugees are forced to put their trust in strangers. The chaos of war is now behind them, but the truth is, they're not entirely safe outside Ukraine either. "For predators and human traffickers, the war in Ukraine is not a tragedy," UN Secretary General António Guterres warned on Twitter. "It's an opportunity - and women and children are the targets." Trafficking rings are notoriously active in Ukraine and neighbouring countries in peace time. The fog of war is perfect cover to increase business...

How wonderful it would be if the world were divided into Good Guys and Bad Guys. That's how Hollywood sees it, and it's from Hollywood that most people get their basic worldview.

But ... life is more complex than that. Here's a piece by Neal Ascherson from the latest London Review of Books:

---------------------------------------------------------------------

A chain of half-recognised statelets lies around the Black Sea. If Putin wins this war, a puppet Ukraine might be added as the pendant on this necklace. But if he loses, and above all if a democratic Russia emerges to make peace with its neighbours, some of the statelets will explode in blood and there will be an exodus of yet more refugees.

They are – from south-east to north-west – Artsakh, South Ossetia, Abkhazia, the two Donbas ‘republics’ of Donetsk and Luhansk, and Transnistria. Crimea, now formally annexed into the Russian Federation, is a borderline case.

None of them is recognised as a sovereign state except by one another, Russia and a few outliers (Nauru, a microstate in Oceania, recognised Abkhazia, for instance). Almost all of them (except for Artsakh, an Armenian breakaway from contested Nagorno-Karabakh) have their origins in ethnic rebellions that took place as the Soviet Union broke up. Almost all of them survive only because of Russian military protection against their vengeful neighbours.

All have tiny populations, and some have less convincing claims to statehood than others.

Abkhazia refused to become a province of an independent Georgia when the Soviet Union broke up; a Georgian punitive invasion in 1993 provoked a savage war that ended in Abkhaz victory and the flight or expulsion of the Georgian population.

Transnistria, with just under half a million people, is a strip of land between Moldova and Ukraine: its people are mostly Russian or Ukrainian speakers, who fought a five-month war of independence in 1992 to avoid being swallowed up in Romanian-speaking Moldova. (They were helped, to put it mildly, by the Russian 14th Guards Army stationed in the region).

The fate of the twin Donbas republics is still uncertain: Moscow recognises their ‘independence’ but has not yet accepted their request to be annexed by Russia.

We have to imagine a post-Putin Russia. Most of Europe – and many Russians – would rejoice. But what would happen to the statelets if a new Russia were to withdraw its military protection and seek reconciliation with Georgia, Moldova and Ukraine? There can be little doubt that Georgian forces would enter Abkhazia and South Ossetia, which it regards as Georgian territories under Russian occupation. This would provoke fierce resistance – especially in Abkhazia – and years of bloodshed. Moldova and perhaps Ukraine would wipe Transnistria and its Russophone independence off the map.

As for the Donbas republics, their position is so inflammable that Ukraine and Russia might agree to leave them as undefined zombies. And Crimea? Only a fresh war could detach it from Russia again.

The West, in its containment of Russia, has guaranteed not only the independence but the self-defined territorial integrity of Russia’s western neighbours. This could well mean supporting their revenge and reconquest in places lost to them thirty years ago – sometimes with good reason.

Leftists who support Russia:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mo5hsobzg7c

Kremlin has forbidden distribution of Zelensky interview by (4? 5?) independent Russian journalists (at least one of whom uses the term "war"). My understanding is that enterprising Russians can still access Youtube(?)
Sure hope Zelensky survives and that his reputation weathers more like Mandela than Aung San Suu Kyi...

Anne Applebaum (The Atlantic) @ | 4:34 PM · Mar 27, 2022
This is the whole Zelensky interview with independent Russian journalists.
This version has subtitles.
youtube.com

Владимир Зеленский — о переговорах, аргументах Путина , ситуации в...
Вместе с Иваном Колпаковым, Михаилом Зыгарем и Владимиром Соловьевым мы созвонились по видеосвязи с президентом Украины Владимиром Зеленским и обсудили ситуа...
1:32:32 ( https://twitter.com/anneapplebaum/status/1508180581259042827 )

>84 Doug1943: And Crimea? Only a fresh war could detach it from Russia again.

This seems to assume that Putin will be in power in perpetuity. I'm no optimist, but even I think it's a little pessimistic to suppose that Russia will be forever ruled by those who wish to be locked in a forever war with their neighbors. If democracy were to break out in Russia, there's a lot that could change. And as I've noted, Putin's war on Ukraine might well be Putin's last mistake as the Tsar of All the Russias.

Wilson Center fellow argues effect of sanctions destroy:
1. Military industry
2. Transport and communication lines
3. Production of consumer goods
Russia cohesion will be broken by its own officials aiming to avoid catastrophe in their own region. That will be a de facto economic separatism, political one will come much later...

Kamil Galeev (Wilson Center) @kamilkazani | 4:41 PM · Mar 26, 2022:
https://twitter.com/kamilkazani/status/1507819977444769794

...Now let's finally outline a scenario of collapse. First, sanctions will destroy its technological and supply chains. Many believe in self-sufficiency of Russia. But Russia is not autarkic. It's not an evil empire but a Trade Federation totally dependent on technological import

Machinery is the first victim of sanctions. It's using foreign components on all levels from microchips to bearings. Thus sanctions are destroying:
1. Military industry
2. Transport and communication lines
3. Production of consumer goods
Thus they're breaking Russia apart

Sanctions won't make Putin back off. They won't make Russian people rebel. That'd be a collective action of a huge scale which isn't gonna happen. They will undermine Russian military efforts and incentivize a much smaller scale, easier to do collective action - local separatism
Map-regions of Russia ( https://twitter.com/kamilkazani/status/1507819991168548868/photo/1 )

Let's start with military industry. Counterintuitive it may sound, it is *especially* import dependent. Why? Well, because it's relatively complex. For example, it is the main consumer of precision manufacturing industrial machines in Russia - buying over 80% of these machines

Annexation of Crimea was a major blow on Russian military industry. As Sverdlovsk Oblast minister of industry Sergey Perestorin admitted, Ural plants, including tank producing ones, started having problems with components supply immediately after 2014

Thus new types of Russian weaponry, for example, the Armata tank were never mass produced. Mass production was supposed to commence in 2015 but in 2022 it still didn't, because of the sanctions. Electronic components import, transmissions import, everything stopped after Crimean

There's another aspect of the problem. It seems Russia lost many technological competences and capacities it used to have under the USSR. In the USSR a job of engineer was prestigous and highly paid. Military engineers were kings. But now they're losers with no respect or salary

As a result construction bureaus and engineering institutions didn't get new competent engineers. Some would come after a college but than had to leave, because they had to feed their families. Average age of an engineer in tank industry is now around 55-60 years

That means that while old engineers were dying and retiring, too few capable youngsters came to learn from them. So many competences of old engineers died with them. As then deputy minister of defense Makarov pointed out Russia lost Soviet technologies of producing a tank barrel

No wonder that all the production on Uralvagonzavod, the only producer of tanks in Russia, is now stopped. Old sanctions introduced in 2014 didn't allow to develop new innovative tanks. New sanctions of 2022 don't allow to build any tanks at all

Russian military industry is fully reliant on Western equipment and components. Consider Motovilihinskie Zavody - the major producer of MLRS and artillety systems in Russia. As you see, they are using a turn-mill industrial machine of an Italian company Tacchi Giacomo e Figli SpA
Photo ( https://twitter.com/kamilkazani/status/1507820042976522245/photo/1 )

Consider an interview with a CEO of Baltic Industrial Company that supplies Russian military plants. We don't produce industrial machines, bearings, ball screws, spindles. Yeah, Russia can produce lots of "cool" weaponry. But it will fall because it can't produce any boring stuff

Non military industry is dying, too. Car and vehicles plants are stopping for the lack of details and components. They are laying off their workers. Of course some try to find solutions and built new vehicles "from Russian components". Sounds good doesn't work
Poster ( https://twitter.com/kamilkazani/status/1507820070151462912/photo/1 )

See this order of Yekaterinburg police. Policemen are not allowed to use their foreign produced cars anymorebecause under the sanction regime they can't re repaired. There are no components for that
Text ( https://twitter.com/kamilkazani/status/1507820077168558081/photo/1 )

Another victim is the railways. Russia switched its railroad cars production from the roller bearings to the cassette bearings. That's more efficient, but all 3 cassette bearing producing plants in Russia are both foreign owned and import dependent. Railways gonna have problems
Tweet? ( https://twitter.com/kamilkazani/status/1507820084730871808/photo/1 )

The railways are the main carcass keeping the country together. Unlike North America they are crucially important not only for transporting goods, but also the people. Most of Russian autoroutes are horrible. It's the railways that connect this country. Soon they'll be disrupted
Map Russian RR routes ( https://twitter.com/kamilkazani/status/1507820091299143684/photo/1 )

Russian airlines are disrupting right now. Russia isn't getting new components for its Boeings and Airbuses, won't be able to maintain them. That's why Pobeda airline for example gonna reduce its fleet by 40%. There are so few details that you can't keep all the planes working
Text-Cyrillic? ( https://twitter.com/kamilkazani/status/1507820097905180672/photo/1 )

Yes, Russia has its own aircraft industry. But the aircraft factories are working on foreign components, too. Rostov aircraft plant closed for the lack of import, so Russian-produced Ан-24 and Ан-26 planes gonna be impossible to repair. They'll function for 5-6 months the most
Text-Cyrillic? ( https://twitter.com/kamilkazani/status/1507820104553156609/photo/1 )

Consider this interview where a minister and his aides aides discussing that they won't be able to repair the stolen planes abroad. Yeah, they'll try to do it in Russia. Good luck repairing them with the import of components stopped
1:00 ( https://twitter.com/kamilkazani/status/1507820139596550145 )

Third aspect of Russian fall will be the decrease of supply in literally all consumer goods. Mutually exclusive collectively exhaustive, there are two options: prices can rise or there will be deficit. At this point both phenomena take place. People are shocked by new prices
1:56 ( https://twitter.com/kamilkazani/status/1507820186417520644 )

There's of course a deficit in consumer goods, like sugar. You can see lots of videos of people shouting, fighting, arguing over this precious deficit good
1:30 ( https://twitter.com/kamilkazani/status/1507820232827555841 )

As sugar becomes deficit, incentives to steal and stock it rise exponentially. Here you supermarket workers stealing sugar from its stocks and loading into a car trunk. A woman is commenting: "That's why they don't have sugar on shelves"
0:12 ( https://twitter.com/kamilkazani/status/1507820257498451968 )

Many will try to enrich on sugar trade. Here a man got arrested for selling a 50kg sack with sugar for above market price. The government is already fighting against the profiteering. Such things will only increase
0:35 ( https://twitter.com/kamilkazani/status/1507820320345890817 )

As you see Russian supermarkets are already restricting the purchases of "socially important goods". Too many try to buy as much as possible to stock it and create the shortage
Photo & text ( https://twitter.com/kamilkazani/status/1507820329678229505/photo/1 )

Now let's think in higher orders. People trying to stock as much as possible is indeed exacerbating the existing deficit. But the thing is - regions and towns *are doing the same*. It's not individuals stocking sugar that will kill Russia, it's that governors are doing the same
Map-Russian regions ( https://twitter.com/kamilkazani/status/1507820337097949185/photo/1 )

When we think about Russian state we are usually operating in dichotomy Putin vs People. Will people support their leader? Will they rebel? They won't but it's irrelevant. The state is not homogenous. Putin can ignore sanctions but his subordinates can't

Yes, the core electorate of Putin, is standing by their President and will stand by the end. Putin is sacred, they're not gonna blame him for anything. Whom they're gonna blame for their problems, for the lack of food? A corrupt mayor and governor of course
1:54 ( https://twitter.com/kamilkazani/status/1507820593671913473 )

I am not joking. Lots of Putin's supporters are fully supporting Z-invasion. They're also already suffering from the economic problems. Whom they're gonna blame? The governor, that corrupt scum, guilty of everything. Putin is sacred but governor is not
0:26 ( https://twitter.com/kamilkazani/status/1507820593671913473 )

This Russian political culture makes position of regional authorities unbearable. Putin is sacred, innocent, unaccountable. That's the local authority who's responsible for the quality of life. The life quality is deteriorating because of Putin, but governor will be blamed

Now what they're gonna do? Some are trying to encourage return to subsistence farming. Sounds good, doesn't work. Indeed, in the past Russians survived economic crises via their dachas and private gardens. But that culture is gone. Boomers are the last generation who could do it
Photo & text ( https://twitter.com/kamilkazani/status/1507820673132949506/photo/1 )

Subsistence farming is extremely unproductive. It's also extremely laborious and time consuming. It also requires competences that the youngsters simply lack. In the good economy expensive oil years they never learnt how to garden from their babushka and now won't learn quickly

The current economic crises is unique in Russian history. First of all, it's now uniquely old. During the previous crises it was much, much younger. Even more importantly, it is the first crisis that happened *after* most of population forgot how to do subsistence farming

Russian economic situation is awful. It's a catastrophe which local authorities will be blamed for. What they're gonna do? Stock up. Stock as much as possible. That's already happening. Stavropol doesn't have sugar shortage. Why? They don't allow exporting it to other regions
Stavropol on map of Russia? ( https://twitter.com/kamilkazani/status/1507820698038726656/photo/1 )

That will be the major factor of Russian collapse. It's not that regional authorities will suddenly declare independence. They won't, at least for now. It's that they will act in the best interest of their regions. Because if a catastrophe happens there, they'll be blamed for it

In acting in the best interest of their regions under the deficit of literally everything they'll inevitably stock up, thus breaking supply lines and technological chains. With the communication lines deteriorating due to sanctions it will be easier and easier to do

Russia won't fall because of collective morally justified action. It's cohesion will be broken by its own officials aiming to avoid catastrophe in their own region. That will be a de facto economic separatism, political one will come much later

In discussing the collapse of Russia and rise of separatist states on its ruins, many focus on ethnic conflicts and identity politics. That's not completely wrong. I'll argue however that the main drivers of collapse will be geographic and socio economic

The best benchmark for Russian collapse isn't Yugoslavia or Austro Hungary. It's a fall of Spanish Colonial Empire with all of its creoles vs peninsulares divisions. Russia is much more of a Latin American country politics, economy, culture wise than many think. End of (thread)
Old map of S America ( https://twitter.com/kamilkazani/status/1507820717127000064/photo/1 )

“Global food prices set a record last month, according to the United Nations, as Russia’s invasion of Ukraine disrupted shipments from the countries that, together, supply one-quarter of the world’s grain and much of its cooking oil. More-expensive food may be frustrating to the middle class, but it’s devastating to communities trying to claw their way out of poverty. For some, ‘demand destruction’ will be a bloodless way to say ‘hunger.'”

Farm Inflation: Fertilizer, Food, and Equipment Manufacturing
Keith Good (IL) | March 28, 2022

Financial Times opinion columnist Rana Foroohar indicated yesterday that, “We know that the war in Ukraine has led to sharp increases in prices for both food and fuel. This in turn has sparked concern that we may see a repeat of the famine and food riots that took place in 22 countries in the years following the global financial crisis, caused by a perfect storm of rising commodities price

“While US wheat farmers should be in a good position to help buffer some of the pain from agricultural disruptions in Ukraine and Russia, they are worried about inflation of another sort — in fertiliser.

Foroohar stated that, “The war is part of that problem, too. Russia was until recently the second largest foreign exporter of fertiliser to the US, providing 10 per cent of the total supply. But it is not the only reason prices are rising.

“As a March 11 release from the US Department of Agriculture put it: ‘Fertiliser prices have more than doubled since last year due to many factors including Vladimir Putin’s price hike, a limited supply of the relevant minerals and high energy costs, high global demand and agricultural commodity prices, reliance on fertiliser imports, and lack of competition in the fertiliser industry.'”

With respect to food price inflation, Bloomberg writers David R Baker, Allison Nicole Smith, and Sheela Tobben reported yesterday that, “Global food prices set a record last month, according to the United Nations, as Russia’s invasion of Ukraine disrupted shipments from the countries that, together, supply one-quarter of the world’s grain and much of its cooking oil. More-expensive food may be frustrating to the middle class, but it’s devastating to communities trying to claw their way out of poverty. For some, ‘demand destruction’ will be a bloodless way to say ‘hunger.'”

And late last week, Reuters writer Bianca Flowers reported that, “Howard Dahl stopped taking farm equipment orders from customers as a shortage of parts and labor and escalating inflation threatened profits for his North Dakota-based firm Amity Technology.

“He did so even as high crop prices suggested strong demand for the sugar beet and silage machinery his company makes ahead of spring planting season.

“‘Normally we begin selling equipment in early November,’ said Dahl. ‘Largely because of the uncertainty of the supply chain, we limited what we were going to build.'”

The Reuters article noted that, A shortage of raw materials saddled manufacturers with increased costs even before Russia’s invasion of Ukraine sent gas prices sky-rocketing and darkened the global inflation outlook.

Now, overall costs of materials for Dahl have jumped 21% year over year through March while the price of steel has doubled, putting him in a delicate situation to price equipment and control costs.

Flowers pointed out that, “Farmer income is expected to drop by $5.4 billion from 2021, according to the U.S Department of Agriculture, as federal aid payments given during the pandemic ease. But tractor sales remained solid in February as farmers eye high crop prices, increasing 9.2% from the same time a year ago, the Association of Equipment Manufacturer’s latest report showed.

“Still, inflation has companies weighing to what extent they can pass costs on to consumers. As prices of raw materials continue to rise, companies may need to find other alternatives to cushion the impact on big price-tag equipment like tractors and keep margins intact, analysts say.”

https://farmpolicynews.illinois.edu/2022/03/farm-inflation-fertilizer-food-and-e...

Roman Abramovich and Ukrainian Peace Negotiators Suffer Suspected Poisoning
The Russian oligarch and others developed symptoms they blamed on hard-liners in Moscow who they say want to sabotage talks to end the war
Yaroslav Trofimov and Max Colchester | Mar. 28, 202
https://www.wsj.com/articles/roman-abramovich-and-ukrainian-peace-negotiators-su...
-------------------------------------------------

Bellingcat @bellingcat | 11:18 AM · Mar 28, 2022:

Bellingcat can confirm that three members of the delegation attending the peace talks between Ukraine and Russia on the night of 3 to 4 March 2022 experienced symptoms consistent with poisoning with chemical weapons. One of victims was Russian entrepreneur Roman Abramovich.

Abramovich, along with another Russian entrepreneur, had taken part in the negotiations alongside Ukraine’s MP Rustem Umerov. The negotiation round on the afternoon of 3 March took place on Ukrainian territory, and lasted until about 10 pm.

Three members of the negotiating team retreated to an apartment in Kyiv later that night and felt initial symptoms - including eye and skin inflammation and piercing pain in the eyes - later that night. The symptoms did not abate until the morning.

The next day the group of negotiators drove from Kyiv to Lviv on the way to Poland and then Istanbul, to continue informal negotiations with the Russian side. A Bellingcat investigator was asked to help provide an examination by chemical weapons specialists.

Based on remote and on-site examinations, the experts concluded that the symptoms are most likely the result of intentional poisoning with an undefined chemical weapon.

An alternative less likely hypothesis was use of microwave irradiation. The symptoms gradually subsided in the course of the following week.

The three men experiencing the symptoms consumed only chocolate and water in the hours before the symptoms appeared. A fourth member of the team who also consumed these did not experience symptoms.

According to two consulted CW experts and a doctor, the symptoms were most consistent with variants of porphyrin, organophosphates, or bicyclic substances. A definitive determination was not possible due to the absence of specialized laboratory equipment near the victims.

The experts said the dosage and type of toxin used was likely insufficient to cause life-threatening damage, and most likely was intended to scare the victims as opposed to cause permanent damage. The victims said they were not aware of who might have had an interest in an attack

Bellingcat chose not to report this story earlier due to concern about the safety of the victims. Given the choice of the targeted individuals to speak up, Bellingcat and its investigative partner @the_ins_ru intend to publish an investigation into the presumed poisonings.
________________________________________________________

>87 kiparsky: I think that the article is suggesting that a democratic and chastened Russia would give Crimea back to Ukraine and the ethnic Russians in Crimea would revolt.

Americans who wouldn't support America:
https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/why-are-so-few-americans-willing-to-defend-t...

And why should these young people risk injury or death, or even just inconvenience, for such a racist homophobic sexist transphobic hell-hole? Let those dumb Trump-supporting rednecks sacrifice THEIR children.

>62 John5918: I think peacekeepers are needed in the Chernobyl Exclusion Zone and maybe around other nuclear power plants, to protect them and ensure there isn't fighting in the area. But I don't see too many countries volunteering their soldiers for that thankless task...

Like you said, after the war there might have to be peacekeepers to ensure both sides respect the peace and the borders. Russia has not done so in Georgia, since the war there (they have been quietly moving the border markers and encroaching on Georgian territory).

>92 Doug1943:
Pretty sure the author of that article lives in the UK so she'll have to load her wine in a canoe if she plans to flee to Canada or Mexico.

>93 madpoet: Presence of any kind of peacekeepers (even to protect the nuclear reactors) will be considered by Russia as a presence of NATO.

>86 margd: They can access it via VPN but watching this video was made specifically illegal so not sure how many will know it exists or will dare to watch it.

The interview is quite insightful on many levels.

>95 annushka:

Possibly. But possibly not if they were peacekeepers from non-aligned rather than western nations. It would probably also depend on how the peacekeeping operation would be authorised. It would have to be a UN operation which means that both Russia itself and China would need to at least abstain and not use their vetos even if they didn't vote in favour. But peacekeeping really only works if both sides have a general intention to respect whatever peace agreement is supposedly being kept. Otherwise the peacekeepers just become another set of combatants.

>97 John5918: "Otherwise the peacekeepers just become another set of combatants."

Or hostage to their whims. As UN Peacekeeper in Cyprus, my dad came under fire between the combatants as he made his way to breakfast. He dropped to road and crawled to his destination, where he lodged full-throated protest with Greek and Turkish leadership. He explained to me that either side would be happy to blame the other if a blue beret was killed.

>98 margd:

Oh definitely. Peacekeepers often come under fire from one side or the other, but if there is a peace agreement or ceasefire genuinely agreed by both sides then it's usually the result of indiscipline or local issues by individual soldiers or small units rather than a formal policy by one side or the other, and it can usually be quickly defused. However when armed "peacekeepers" come to enforce a "peace" which one or both sides have not agreed to, then the incomers are simply more combatants who escalate the level of violence.

How Biden's 9 unscripted words could impact the war in Ukraine (CNN)

Just nine unscripted words put an already jittery world on edge again. President Joe Biden's suggestion in Poland on Saturday that Vladimir Putin's onslaught on Ukraine should disqualify him from power triggered an international political storm. Back in Washington Sunday evening, Biden told reporters that he was not calling for regime change in Russia -- echoing a message spelled out multiple times by his subordinates even before he had returned to the US. But the global reverberations from the remarks leave the administration facing grave questions. Some are strategic and could impact the future course of the war and so-far elusive hopes for a ceasefire. Others are political and relate to Biden's standing at home, amid a torrent of Republican criticism, and internationally, as he seeks to keep the Western coalition together...

Did the President's comment dangerously escalate already high tensions in the worst confrontation between the West and Russia in decades? Has Biden shaken international confidence in his so-far strong leadership in bringing the NATO alliance together in a united front against Moscow? And will Putin be able to exploit disquiet over Biden's comments in European capitals? Will the notion that Biden hopes to topple Putin -- even if the US says it's not true -- harden the embattled Russian leader's resolve against negotiations or cause him to further escalate an already merciless war against civilians? Has Biden's now stinging rhetoric about Putin effectively ruled out any future direct diplomacy or meetings between the world's top nuclear powers -- and could it endanger global peace if they can't communicate in a future crisis that threatens humanity? Or will Biden's human reaction to spending time with Ukrainian refugees soon be overtaken by the daily unfolding horror of the war or come to be seen as a strong moral stand that changed the way the world views the Russian leader?... And finally, since Moscow already sees extraordinarily tough Western sanctions as economic warfare and given Putin's deeply conspiratorial view of the West and its role in vanquishing the Soviet Union, can a few loose presidential words that rile up everyone in Washington really make things any worse?...

How many deaths is Putin directly responsible for? Has anyone estimated the total?
e.g., https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_wars_involving_Russia
Apartment bombings
School hostage invasion
Assassinations
Chechen wars
Dagestan
N Caucasus Insurgency
Anti-terrorist operation in Makhachkala, Dagestan
Georgia
Russian military intervention in the Syrian Civil War (Aleppo...)
Russo-Ukrainian War (2014, 2022)
Central African Republic Civil War (?)
_____________?

Other metrics of misery?

(While you're at it, feel free to do same for US in same time frame. I know that's where some will head immediately. e.g., https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_wars_involving_the_United_States#21st-cent... )

Roman Abramovich handed Putin a note from Zelenskyy seeking peace, but Putin replied 'tell him I will thrash them,' report says
Sinéad Baker | 3/29/2022

...Abramovich met with Putin earlier this month in Moscow, where he was handed the note from Zelenskyy to give to Putin, The Times reported. Zelenskyy said Abramovich, who has been involved in the peace talks, had been trying to help.

According to the report, the note laid out the terms that Zelenskyy would accept to end the war, which started when Russia invaded Ukraine on February 24.

But Putin was not convinced, saying, "Tell him I will thrash them," The Times reported...

https://www.businessinsider.com/roman-abramovich-gave-putin-peace-note-zelenskyy...

https://www.mediaite.com/tv/tom-brokaw-blames-fox-news-and-poisonous-right-wing-...
Tom Brokaw Blames Fox News and ‘Poisonous Right-Wing Political Organizations’ for Putin Invading Ukraine

The current state of Vladimir Putin reminds me of that famous line from boxer Mike Tyson. He said everyone has a plan until they get punched in the mouth. Well guess what, Putin is getting punched in the mouth right now. From the beginning Putin has been a war monger with a sour face. He obviously thought he could run over Ukraine while President Joe Biden was under constant attack by Fox News and ever more poisonous right-wing political organizations. Putin thought Ukraine’s president was just a boy comedian.

Well, President Biden and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky are not in hiding like Putin. They’re taking him on, thank God, but the senseless death of brave Ukrainians, men and women and children, the destruction of a fragile Ukrainian economy … goes on and for what in the final analysis? Where are the so-called smart men of Russia, the oligarchs who have gotten filthy rich because of Putin. The march of folly just goes on and on and more people tragically will die as a result.

***
Putin saw how right-wingers were attacking Biden continuously and he must have decided that there was a good chance that would continue because in America news is a money-making venture ~ millions of eyes and/or ears equal ad dollars. Being complimented for his incursion into Ukraine must have been the cherry on the top of the sundae for Putin.

Yes, of course any peacekeeping mission would have to be agreed on by both sides. And it needs to be a UN (not NATO) mission. But there is little trust between the Russians and Ukrainians, and if there isn't some kind of buffer zone, with observers, there will be violations by one or both sides. Putin could very easily use that as a pretext to invade again.

Oh, yes: if Putin has to settle for just the Donbass region, he will almost certainly invade again, to try to get more. The 'security guarantees' of France, Italy, Turkey, etc. are a joke. Do you really think any one of those countries will go to war against Russia to stop another invasion of Ukraine? When Ukraine voluntarily gave up the world's third largest stockpile of nuclear weapons in 1994, the U.S., U.K. and Russia all promised (Article 2 of the Budapest Memorandum):

2. The United States of America, the Russian Fed-
eration, and the United Kingdom of Great Britain and
Northern Ireland, reaffirm their obligation to refrain
from the threat or use of force against the territorial in-
tegrity or political independence of Ukraine, and that
none of their weapons will ever be used against Ukraine
except in self-defense or otherwise in accordance with
the Charter of the United Nations.

Russia obviously broke that promise, and the other two signatories did nothing to stop them.

>104 madpoet: I think the Ukrainians will be afraid of Putin looking for ways to invade again.

Why the Red Cross has to be neutral in the Ukraine conflict (BBC)

The International Committee of the Red Cross has condemned what it calls a "widespread and systematic campaign of misinformation" about its work in Ukraine. These are strong words from the famously neutral organisation, and reflect deep concern that its humanitarian operations worldwide could be undermined by what appears to be a co-ordinated strategy designed to destroy trust. "It is a targeted deliberate campaign, discrediting the ICRC and its work. It's unacceptable," said the organisation's director general, Robert Mardini. For at least two weeks, across multiple social media platforms, criticism and false accusations against the ICRC have been appearing, in Ukrainian and in Russian... The ICRC is the guardian of the Geneva Conventions; the only side it will ever take in a conflict, says Mr Mardini, is the side of civilians, the wounded, prisoners of war, and the rules of war themselves... "These are concerns that should transcend politics," said Robert Mardini. "These are the basics of humanity"...

public dressing downs are not the ICRC's style... "We're not some dial-a-quote organisation," an ICRC officer told me at the time, "there are human rights groups for that." Preserving access to civilians suffering in war zones, to detainees and prisoners of war, is the ICRC's number one priority. Its strategy is to explain the rules of war to the warring parties privately, but not to go running to the media when it learns violations are taking place. That, the argument goes, could put an end to the access... The task now though will be to ensure that trust in the ICRC's work is not damaged further. It remains unclear who is behind the campaign of misinformation, but the ICRC is convinced it is targeted and deliberate... The ICRC and its local Red Cross and Red Crescent partners are not armed, and they never travel with armed guards. Their protection, Robert Mardini says "is the red cross"... "We need to ensure we are perceived as neutral and impartial. This neutrality, international humanitarian law, when it works, it does save lives. At the end of the day, this, the rules of war, is the frontier between barbarism and humanity. So we will always keep pushing for this."

Dunno about ICRC, but (American?) Red Cross lost credibility in recent campaigns for natural emergencies (hurricanes? NOLA? Caribbean? Sandy?), when revealed that monies weren't being spent according to appeal and were even transferred to other programs without notice. I'm a regular blood donor with Red Cross, but UN food (WFP) and refugees (High Commission for Refugees) seem like better places to send money? Reassuring that every time there's a catastrophe in the news, I see bags of WFP-branded food being distributed. (Just checked Charity Navigator: ICRC & WFP well rated, ARC & UN HCR, less so. UN HCR spends too much on soliciting, apparently, though I barely see anything from them compared to some charities, which are virtual Energizer Bunnies!)

Lots of data:
The War in Ukraine Is Creating the Greatest Global Food Crisis Since WWII, the U.N. Says
https://time.com/6162598/ukraine-war-food-shortage/
--------------------------------------------------------

Ukraine war: Russia blocks ships carrying grain exports
Up to 300 ships have been stopped by Russian forces from departing the Black Sea, leaving one of the key global trade routes for grain virtually blocked. The fertile region is known as "the world's breadbasket."
Nik Martin | 17/03/2022

..."Zero grain is currently being exported from the ports of Ukraine — nothing is leaving the country at all," Jörg-Simon Immerz, head of the grain trading at BayWa, (Germany's largest agricultural trader BayWa said this week...) told dpa news agency.

He added that the export activity on the Russian side is "very limited."....

https://www.dw.com/en/ukraine-war-russia-blocks-ships-carrying-grain-exports/a-6...
-------------------------------------------------------

The Russia-Ukraine war threatens Africa’s wheat supply
Carlos Mureithi | March 14, 2022. Last updated March 23, 2022

...Somalia imports most of its wheat from Egypt, which imports about 85% of its wheat from Russia and Ukraine.

...Russia and Ukraine are major exporters of food globally, with the two exporting almost 12% of total calories traded in the world. The two countries are also leading producers of wheat, which African countries heavily rely on them for import. Eastern Africa, which meets most of its wheat demand through imports, gets 90% of its imported wheat from Russia and Ukraine.

...The Russia-Ukraine war is likely to affect wheat supply chains as Ukraine, Russia, and Romania, three major wheat exporters that ship grains from ports in the Black Sea, face disruptions from the conflict, closure of ports, and sanctions, says the World Food Programme (WFP)...

Another reason for possible supply chain disruption by the war is that Russians and Ukrainians make up about 15% of the global shipping workforce, meaning there would be complications in the distribution of products if the war hindered the movement of this workforce....

https://qz.com/africa/2141561/the-war-in-ukraine-war-threatens-africas-wheat-sup...
----------------------------------------------------------

Fuel price increases and fertilizer shortages may affect production and prices for North American farmers, e.g.,
https://www.thespec.com/news/hamilton-region/2022/03/29/ontario-grain-farmers-wa... .

Hopefully, weather cooperates...

Biden says he was 'expressing my outrage' but not making a policy change when he said Putin 'cannot remain in power' (CNN)

President Joe Biden reiterated on Monday that he was not announcing a change in US policy when he had said that Russian President Vladimir Putin "cannot remain in power" -- a remark that caught American and international officials off-guard, sending the White House into clean-up mode over the weekend. "I just was expressing my outrage. He shouldn't remain in power, just like, you know, bad people shouldn't continue to do bad things," Biden said... "But it doesn't mean we have a fundamental policy to do anything to take Putin down in any way"...

While it's often hard to remember when reading Pro and Con, this is supposedly a website about books, so it should not be surprising that Tuesday evening I was in a big chain bookstore, browsing the shelves, and made a curious observation.

Usually whenever something happens they put in the front a display with a few related books (the relation can be embarrassingly tangential, I once discreetly photographed a "Chinese New Year" display that was mostly contemporary Japanese novels) for interested patrons to buy. Does it work? I guess they have better numbers than I do make that call, but I hardly ever see anybody by the display.

Anyways, no such display for the conflict in Ukraine. Not a Ukrainian in sight (or even a Russian or Pole, which would at least be funny). Only the Russian classics in that one bookshelf by the back, and the usual Karkhovs for the midwits. Sounds like that war does not lend itself very well to marketing.

When the war is over, Ukraine will need to be rebuilt. What about a 'International Brigade' of people with construction skills, to help?

And: assuming that a number of people who look at this group are academics or have academic ties, what about having universities (US, UK, Canadian, Australian ... and any others who want to) link up with one or more of their Ukrainian counterparts, and do some modest fund-raising to replace destroyed libraries, etc? Perhaps shipments in kind would be possible as well: books, laptops.

Finally: one of the many reactionary outcomes of this war will be the growth of paranoid national isolationism in Russia. That should be resisted. What about contacting Russian academics I'm working on an email list of same re-affirming our wish to see them as part of the world intellectual community.

To quote a 19th Century thinker, 'Previous philosophers have only interpreted the world.... the point is to change it.'

Science published an appeal not to isolate R scientists--I'll link later. Cosmonauts and NASA set good example, I think.

Maintaining a Coalition in Support of Ukraine at the UN (International Crisis Group)

The UN General Assembly has now passed two resolutions condemning Russia’s assault on Ukraine. But the majority is not as solid as it seems. Allies of Kyiv should pay more attention to the concerns of countries from the Global South... Since the General Assembly first voted on the situation in Ukraine, many members of the Non-Aligned Movement (NAM) at the UN (which accounts for some 120 of the body’s 193 members) have started to worry about the global effects of the crisis. These include the threat of food price shocks – which are likely to hit Africa and the Middle East particularly hard, as both are major importers of grain from Russia and Ukraine – and the likelihood that the U.S. and European donors will need to divert development and humanitarian aid to help Ukraine and Ukrainian refugees, creating funding shortfalls elsewhere...

https://www.mediaite.com/tv/tucker-carlson-says-ignore-those-surprised-by-russia...
Tucker Carlson Says ‘Ignore’ Those Surprised By Russia’s Invasion of Ukraine

Jist of article ~ Biden warned us but he really didn't believe what he was saying.

***
What TC is really thinking ~ don't believe him/them ~ believe me ~ I am paid millions of dollars by an Aussie billionaire to scr*w with the gray matter between your two ears.

The Russian Army has finally moved out of the Chernobyl region apparently. If reports are to be believed while they were there (including the Red Forest—the most contaminated area) they were digging trenches and stirring up radioactive dust with heavy motorized vehicles and that hundreds of their soldiers are already being treated in Belarus for radiation poisoning because no precautions and very little if any safety gear was available for them.

Japan’s Russian Dilemma
Yuriko Koike | Mar 31, 2014

...Japan is particularly concerned with Russian expansionism, because it is the only G-7 country that currently has a territorial dispute with Russia, which has occupied its Northern Territories since the waning days of World War II. That occupation began between August 28 and September 5, 1945, when the Soviet Union hurriedly nullified the existing Soviet-Japanese Neutrality Treaty and invaded not only Japanese-occupied Manchuria, but also southern Sakhalin Island and the ancient Japanese territories of Etorofu Island, Kunashiri Island, Shikotan Island, and the Habomai Islands.

Concerned that America’s development and use of atomic weapons against Japan would deprive the Soviet Union of any territorial gains in the east, Stalin ordered the Red Army to invade. But Japan, having already endured the bombings of Hiroshima and Nagasaki, had accepted the Potsdam Declaration on August 14, meaning that the war was already over when the Red Army marched in.

Since then, these islands have been controlled by either the Soviet Union or its successor state, Russia. And, as elsewhere in Russia, their residents have been impoverished by consistently incompetent and corrupt government, whether run by Communists or today’s crony capitalists.

In a strange historical twist, given the Crimean annexation, after the Japanese citizens native to the Northern Territories were killed or expelled, many Ukrainians were brought to the islands during the Soviet years, and still live there.

...Japanese territory and territorial waters are being threatened “by force” in the East China Sea by China...

https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/yuriko-koike-regards-vladimir-putin...

---------------------------------------------------

🇯🇵 Japan will officially call the Kuril Islands Russian-occupied territories

- Hromadske Int. @Hromadske | 9:27 AM · Mar 31, 2022
Hromadske – in English. We explain what's happening in Ukraine & Eastern Europe. Also in UA @hromadskeua
and GER @HromadskeDE

UK map: A map that shows the Russian attacks and troop locations in Ukraine, March 31, 2022
https://twitter.com/DefenceHQ/status/1509487294738317312/photo/1

Ministry of Defence 🇬🇧 @DefenceHQ | 7:06 AM · Mar 31, 2022
The illegal and unprovoked invasion of Ukraine is continuing.
The map (above) is the latest Defence Intelligence update on the situation in Ukraine - 31 March 2022

Find out more about the UK government's response: http://ow.ly/4wVE50IwZep

Alik Puhati @rajdianos | 4:53 PM · Mar 30, 2022:
https://twitter.com/rajdianos/status/1509244396381822978
Writing from the heart of the North Caucasus - Ossetia. YouTube: http://youtube.com/c/Rajdian Podcasts: http://anchor.fm/rajdian

Returned soldiers on the border of Russia and South Ossetia. They hitchhiked home.
https://twitter.com/rajdianos/status/1509272515809587203/photo/1
https://twitter.com/rajdianos/status/1509272515809587203/photo/2

The former president of South Ossetia called not to draw hasty conclusions and not to accuse the guys of desertion, but to carefully investigate the situation when soldiers are sent to combat operations without full outfit and stocks of weapons, warm clothing and protective equipment.
-------------------------------------------------

Rooslán Totrov @RooslanTotrov |
Political editor, public speaker, columnist. The voice of Ossetia in the (world)
https://twitter.com/RooslanTotrov
https://twitter.com/RooslanTotrov/status/1509320247081410567

Alik’s publication (https://twitter.com/rajdianos/status/1509244396381822978 ABOVE) requires a background deep dive. Here is what I have to say about South Ossetian soldiers’ voluntary refusal to partake in the warfare in Ukraine.

1. Many Ossetians seek revenge against Ukraine for its de-facto political and military support of Georgia when the latter conducted genocide and repression of non-Georgian ethnic groups of former Georgian Soviet Socialist Republic.

1.1 What certainly stands out in that regard is the participation of UNA-UNSO in the war against South Ossetia back in 2008.

2. South Ossetia had its own army back in the days but it was demolished by president Bibilov – a loyal puppet to Kremlin’s then eminense grise Vladislav Surkov.

South Ossetian president Bibilov's attempt to deconstruct our independence and downgrade the country into yet another Russian state should be treated as treason without any doubt. Mr. Bibilov has to be prosecuted to the full extent of the law.

2.1 Mr. Bibilov forced the merger of Ossetian military personnel into Russian army, and oppressed, utilizing Mr. Surkov’s immense influence, all his political rivals who were not in favor of such a decision.

3. South Ossetian soldiers ended up in Ukraine as integral part of the Russian army. Again, this is due to president Bibilov’s decision some time ago.

3.1 The very fact of sending hundreds of Ossetians to Ukraine sparked the flames of discontent in South Ossetia as the country has literally lost most of its soldiers for the time being and become completely vulnerable to Georgia.

4. There was no rapport between Ossetian soldiers and Russian commanders from the get-go, as the former didn’t buy into the latter’s strategy and tactics in the territory they were fighting in.

4.1 Ossetians were expected to carelessly attack well defended Ukrainian positions in the kamikaze style, without any well thought thru strategy. This would have led to immense losses. At some point Ossetian soldiers just ignored orders and started fighting their own way.

5. As the outcome of such a rebellious and independent demeanor, major incident followed: a refusal to supply ammunition and maps to the Ossetian unit.

5.1 This triggered Ossetians to come up with a tense theory: “They want to have as many people from Caucasus slaughtered in this senseless bloodbath as possible”. (Interestingly enough, there is a disproportionate number of casualties from Dagestan and North Ossetia per capita).

7. The commander immediately called in a group of loyal Russian soldiers for his protection. Thus, all the hierarchical ties in the unit were destroyed.

6. And then there was the final incident that almost ended at the gunpoint. One of the commanders prohibited Ossetian soldiers to retrieve their dead comrade’s body from the battlefield. This ignited a real unrest.

6.1 Soldiers tried to explain that according to Ossetian tradition the body had to be delivered to the family, but the commander suggested sending in an empty coffin. The response was fierce: we are going to put you in that coffin and ship to Ossetia in case you try to stop us.

Lesia Vasylenko (Ukrainian MP) @lesiavasylenko | 4:37 PM · Mar 30, 2022:
#Irpin after #Russia’s liberation operation. This is pure destruction.
Photos
https://twitter.com/lesiavasylenko/status/1509268506776567808/photo/1
https://twitter.com/lesiavasylenko/status/1509268506776567808/photo/2
https://twitter.com/lesiavasylenko/status/1509268506776567808/photo/3
https://twitter.com/lesiavasylenko/status/1509268506776567808/photo/4
----------------------------------------------

John Reed จอห์น รีด (Financial Times) @JohnReedwrites | 2:41 PM · Mar 30, 2022:
According to the mayor of Irpin, which #Ukraine recently recaptured, the Russians “simply shot the people that they didn’t like”, and flattened some of the bodies of the dead with tanks. via @ukrpravda_news pravda.com.ua*

“The dead were crushed by tanks”: up to 300 civilians killed in Irpin – Mayor of Irpin
Roman Petrenko – Wednesday, 30 March 2022, 16:19

* “The dead were crushed by tanks”: up to 300 civilians killed in Irpin – Mayor of Irpin
30 March 2022
https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2022/03/30/7335813/
----------------------------------------------

Olena Halushka @OlenaHalushka | 10:33 AM · Mar 30, 2022:
Anti-Corruption Action Centre. We're curbing grand political corruption in Ukraine. Public finance monitoring, anti-money laundering, assets recovery.

.@ServiceSsu published another piece of intercepted talks of russian invaders in Ukraine. They rape minors and eat dogs. Moreover, neither them, nor their interlocutors: moms, wives or friends seem to be shocked or ashamed
0:44 ( https://twitter.com/OlenaHalushka/status/1509177054696284166 )
----------------------------------------------

Arrow Intel @IntelArrow | 2:35 PM · Mar 30, 2022
PhD student studying world politics at @MSU_1755 ( Lomonosov MSU ). Currently residing in Kyiv.
Mariupol city center, today. Complete devastation.
2:03 ( https://twitter.com/IntelArrow/status/1509237906417795077 )
----------------------------------------------

The Kyiv Independent @KyivIndependent | 4:14 PM · Mar 30, 2022:
⚡️Russian strikes hit Red Cross warehouse in besieged Mariupol.

It didn't help that its roof was marked with the Red Cross symbol, indicating the presence of wounded people or civilian or humanitarian cargo.

Armstrong🕊️ @Armstrong001919 | 4:31 PM · Mar 30, 2022:
The roof of the building is marked with the Red Cross sign. According to the Geneva convention, if the building is hit, "within the scope of war crimes", aid cargo vehicles can also be seen in front of the building. Of course if you want to see it..

No explanation was given from the #WHO, the #UN or the #RedCross about the hospital that the occupying #Russia deliberately bombed in Mariupol. Are we surprised? ...
Aerial photo Red Cross-marked bldg and cargo trucks ( https://twitter.com/Armstrong001919/status/1509267018800840705/photo/1 )

>112 margd: "Science published an appeal not to isolate R scientists--I'll link later. Cosmonauts and NASA set good example, I think."
The below came in from https://www.thedailyupside.com/ in an email today, I know posts have been made on the same topic:

From Russia, With a STEM Degree
Young workers are fleeing to avoid possible conscription. Meanwhile, tech firms with international customers are relocating to avoid sanctions and the stigma of conducting Russia-related business. The brain drain is not necessarily surprising given the global hunger for tech workers, which Russia produces with almost as much vigor as it does oil and vodka. A 2020 Global Skills Index report found Russians scored highest in technology and data science proficiency.

So where are these workers headed? High-end talent holding fancy European Union visas has fled to Poland, Latvia, and Lithuania. Others have decamped to Armenia, Georgia, and former Soviet republics in Central Asia, where Russians don’t need a visa. In total, an astounding number of tech workers are in mass exodus:
•
In just five weeks since war broke out, 70,000 computer specialists have emigrated from Russia, according to one estimate cited by the Associated Press.
•
Through April, another 100,000 tech workers could leave the country, Sergei Plugotarenko, head of industry lobbying group the Russian Association for Electronic Communications, told a parliamentary committee last week, the AP reported.
To prevent any further outflow, Putin this week signed legislation eliminating all income taxes until 2024 for Russian IT company employees.

Security Concerns: The fleeing workers aren’t necessarily trusted. “The IT sector in Russia is very closely connected to the security services,” Lithuanian political analyst Marius Laurinavicius told the AP. “We risk importing parts of the criminal system of Russia.” Lithuania has since blocked visa applications from Russian firms and startups.

The Time to Obey is Now: Nonviolence in a World of War (Daniel Berrigan Collective)

A webinar on 9th April 2022 (12 pm EDT) with Frida Berrigan and Yurii Sheliazhenko, executive secretary of the Ukrainian Pacifist Movement and a board member of the European Bureau for Conscientious Objection. Registration details are included in the linked web page.

Retreating Russians rape women, kill men 16-60...

Михайло Подоляк @Podolyak_M | 3:14 AM · Apr 3, 2022:
Adviser to the Head of the Office of President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelenskyy

Kyiv region. 21st century Hell. Bodies of men and women, who were killed with their hands tied. The worst crimes of Nazism have returned to 🇪🇺. This was purposely done by 🇷🇺. Impose an embargo on energy resources, close seaports. Stop the murders!
Photos-murdered civilians
https://twitter.com/Podolyak_M/status/1510515954270322689/photo/1
https://twitter.com/Podolyak_M/status/1510515954270322689/photo/2
https://twitter.com/Podolyak_M/status/1510515954270322689/photo/3
https://twitter.com/Podolyak_M/status/1510515954270322689/photo/4
--------------------------------------------------------------

New Srebrenica. The Ukrainian city of Bucha was in the hands of 🇷🇺 animals for several weeks. *Local civillians were being executed arbitrarily*, some with hands tied behind their backs, their bodies scattered in the streets of the city.
1:09 ( https://twitter.com/DefenceU/status/1510372750665433089 )

- Defence of Ukraine @DefenceU | 5:44 PM · Apr 2, 2022
Ukraine government organization
--------------------------------------------------------------

Illia Ponomarenko 🇺🇦 @IAPonomarenko | 6:04 AM · Apr 3, 2022:
That’s it.
The Ukrainian military has secured the Belarussian-Ukrainian border in Kyiv region.
--------------------------------------------------------------

Dead civilians are seen on the sidelines of highway 20km from Kyiv, Kyiv region, Ukraine April 2, 2022. Under the blanket 4 or 5 dead naked women whom tried to be burned on the roadside.
Photo (https://twitter.com/mpalinchak/status/1510308722328977412/photo/1)

- Mikhail Palinchak @mpalinchak | 1:30 PM · Apr 2, 2022
Documentary and street photographer from Kyiv, Ukraine
--------------------------------------------------------------

Inna Sovsun @InnaSovsun | 9:59 PM · Apr 2, 2022:
Member of #Ukraine🇺🇦 Parliament, Deputy Head of @GolosZmin party, First Deputy Minister of Education and Science (2014-2016)

Photos-putinated corpses...:(
https://twitter.com/InnaSovsun/status/1510436882995421187/photo/1
https://twitter.com/InnaSovsun/status/1510437883806638089/photo/1
https://twitter.com/InnaSovsun/status/1510376372333682692/photo/1
https://twitter.com/InnaSovsun/status/1510242951389233157/photo/1

0:40 ( https://twitter.com/InnaSovsun/status/1510242839657345026 )
--------------------------------------------------------------

The world must see this. Bucha, Kyiv oblast, just liberated from Russian invading forces 1/2

Photos-more putinated corpses:
https://twitter.com/StratcomCentre/status/1510492528822390789/photo/2
https://twitter.com/StratcomCentre/status/1510492528822390789/photo/3
https://twitter.com/StratcomCentre/status/1510492528822390789/photo/4

https://twitter.com/StratcomCentre/status/1510492656069193730/photo/1
https://twitter.com/StratcomCentre/status/1510492656069193730/photo/2

- Stratcom Centre UA @StratcomCentre | 1:40 AM · Apr 3, 2022
The Centre for Strategic Communications and Information Security under the Ministry of Culture and Information Policy of Ukraine
--------------------------------------------------------------

У Бучі знайшли "братську могилу", де поховані майже 300 людей, на вулицях десятки трупів
https://pravda.com.ua/news/2022/04/2/7336702/
(Translated from Ukrainian by google: In Bucha found a "mass grave" (in Bucha), where nearly 300 people are buried, dozens of corpses on the streets)
https://pravda.com.ua/news/2022/04/2/7336702/
Photo ( https://twitter.com/ukrpravda_news/status/1510354866211799043/photo/1 )

- Українська правда ✌️ @ukrpravda_news4:33 PM · Apr 2, 2022
Ukraine Pravda News
--------------------------------------------------------------

Map of the approximate situation in Ukraine as of 00:00 UTC 03/04/22.
https://twitter.com/War_Mapper/status/1510413433438621696/photo/1

- Ukraine War Map @War_Mapper | 8:26 PM · Apr 2, 2022
---------------------------------------------------------------

Ukraine accuses Russian forces of executing civilians in the town of Bucha.
Cassandra Vinograd and Andrew E. Kramer | April 2, 2022
https://www.nytimes.com/live/2022/04/03/world/ukraine-russia-war#ukraine-accuses...
--------------------------------------------------------------

Russia in Broad Retreat From Kyiv, Seeking to Regroup From Battering
Andrew E. Kramer and Neil MacFarquhar | April 2, 2022
https://www.nytimes.com/2022/04/02/world/europe/ukraine-russia-kyiv.html
--------------------------------------------------------------

Bodies of mutilated children among horrors the Russians left behind
Louise Callaghan | April 02 2022

“We found 18 bodies in there. They had been torturing people. Some of them had their ears cut off. Others had teeth pulled out. There were kids like 14, 16 years old, some adults. They just took the bodies away yesterday.”

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/bodies-of-mutilated-children-among-horrors-th...

⚡️Ukraine's economy shrinks by estimated 16% between January and April.

The economy may shrink by 40% by the end of 2022 due to the war, according to Denys Kudin, the first deputy minister of economy. PM Denys Shmyhal earlier said that economic losses could exceed $1 trillion.

- The Kyiv Independent @KyivIndependent | 6:52 AM · Apr 2, 2022

Andrei Sidorov from the #Moscow State University:
"I am not sure that #Ukraine, like many other small states, should retain its #sovereignty after our special operation.
In today's world, sovereignty is based, whether we like it or not, on force".

0:53 ( https://twitter.com/nexta_tv/status/1510122583487922178 )

- NEXTA @nexta_tv | 1:10 AM · Apr 2, 2022
The largest Eastern European media. To let the world know.

Amateur shipwatchers are very good at locating ships--I wonder how one could hide from pros for any length of time??

Russian oil tankers are vanishing off the map
Matt Egan | March 30, 2022

... As the war in Ukraine drags on, Russian tankers carrying crude oil and petroleum products are increasingly disappearing from tracking systems.

So-called dark activity, where ships' transponders are turned off for hours at a time, has in the past been viewed by US officials as a deceptive shipping practice that is often used to evade sanctions.

Dark activity among Russian-affiliated crude oil tankers is up by 600% compared with before the war began, predictive intelligence company Windward, told CNN.

"We're seeing a spike in Russian tankers turning off transmissions deliberately to circumvent sanctions," Windward CEO Ami Daniel said in an interview. "The Russian fleet is starting to hide its whereabouts and its exports."

And this is not just happening with crude oil. Similar trends are playing out with other petroleum products, too.

During the week of March 12, there were 33 occurrences of dark activity by Russian oil-chemical and oil-product tankers, according to Windward, which uses artificial intelligence to track the maritime industry. That's 236% higher than the weekly average of the prior 12 months.

'THESE VESSELS WANT TO DISAPPEAR'

International regulations require vessels like oil tankers keep their transponders on almost all the time...

https://www.ctvnews.ca/world/russian-oil-tankers-are-vanishing-off-the-map-1.584...

Nonviolent resistance to the war in Ukraine: Exploring multiple perspectives (Global Campaign for Peace Education)

Predictably, much of the Western press has focused on Ukrainian diplomatic or military resistance to Russia’s invasion...

The Global Campaign for Peace Education has curated a collection of perspectives, analyses, and stories of nonviolent resistance to the war in Ukraine.

5 ways to support courageous nonviolent resistance in Ukraine: The courageous and creative actions of nonviolent resistance being done in Ukraine, Russia and elsewhere should be amplified; Donors, governments and multilateral institutions can step up their support for unarmed civilian protection to nonviolently protect civilians; All stakeholders, including adversaries, need to be re-humanized; Ukrainian President Zelensky should be encouraged to sign a phase one agreement with Russia to end the war; A wave of strategic delegations or a humanitarian airlift into Ukraine to generate time and space, or peace zones, for interrupting hostilities should be considered...
Resistance to War in Ukraine: Actions, News, Analyses, and Resources for Nonviolence: Actions inside of Russia and from Russians; Citizen and Other Actions Inside Ukraine; Reports from Within Ukraine; Citizen Actions Around Globe; Tech and Big Business Actions; Political Actions excluding Generalized Sanctions; Statements, Appeals, and Signs of Solidarity including Protest Actions...
Ukrainians vs. Putin: Potential for Nonviolent Civilian-based Defense: The data show that between 1900 and 2006, nonviolent struggles against occupiers succeeded 35% of the time while armed resistance succeeded 36% of the time (Chenoweth & Stephan 2011). Neither type of resistance succeeded more often than it failed, but successful and failed armed resistance lasted on average three times longer than its nonviolent counterparts; always came with a huge human and infrastructural cost for the local population (e.g. Vietnam 1960s); had much lower probability of building democracy afterwards (Algeria 1962); and destroyed or traumatized civil society (e.g. Hungary 1956) whose strength and mobilization are needed for democracy building and its sustainability...
Ukraine doesn’t need to match Russia’s military might to defend against invasion: Throughout history, people facing occupation have tapped into the power of nonviolent struggle to thwart their invaders...
Ukraine’s secret weapon may prove to be civilian resistance: Unarmed Ukrainians changing road signs, blocking tanks and confronting the Russian military are showing their bravery and strategic brilliance. Predictably, much of the Western press has focused on Ukrainian diplomatic or military resistance to Russia’s invasion, such as the arming of regular citizens to patrol and protect. These forces have already proven stronger than Russian President Vladimir Putin has expected and are disrupting his plans with great courage... History shows that successful resistance against a militarily stronger opponent often requires a wide variety of resistance, including from those who are unarmed — a role that is often given less attention, both by the mainstream media and by maniacal power-obsessed opponents. Yet, even as Putin’s swift invasion of Ukraine has left a lot of shock, Ukrainians are showing what unarmed people can do to resist, too...
National Security through Civilian-Based Defense: Many people are now convinced that we need alternatives to present military deterrence and defense policies. The alternatives are usually still sought within the context of military assumptions and means, and so far only rarely beyond them. The search for alternatives is important and needs to be intensified. Present policies, with their serious limitations, would retain few supporters if superior substitute policies existed and were widely known...

Russians "cleaning house" in Mariupol: like Bucha?

lifenews_ru @lifenews_ru | lifenews_ru @lifenews_ru | 7:04 AM · Apr 4, 2022:
Государственное издание, Россия
LIFE – о жизни в России, только самые интересные новости. Канал в Яндекс.Дзен: https://zen.yandex.ru/life.ru Каналы в Telegram: http://t.me/shot_shot http://t.me/lifenews

Государственное издание, Россия
Кадры зачистки домов в Мариуполе от первого лица.
Российские военные и бойцы ВС ДНР обходят все подвалы, у населения проверяют документы и наличие нацистских татуировок
Translated from Russian by
Footage of cleaning houses in Mariupol from the first person.
Russian military and fighters of the Armed Forces of the DPR go around all the basements, the population is checked for documents and the presence of Nazi tattoos

1:04 ( https://twitter.com/lifenews_ru/status/1510936347695104000 )

Ukraine: Apparent War Crimes in Russia-Controlled Areas
Summary Executions, Other Grave Abuses by Russian Forces
Human Rights Watch | April 3, 2022

...“The cases we documented amount to unspeakable, deliberate cruelty and violence against Ukrainian civilians,” said Hugh Williamson, Europe and Central Asia director at Human Rights Watch. “Rape, murder, and other violent acts against people in the Russian forces’ custody should be investigated as war crimes.”

Human Rights Watch interviewed 10 people, including witnesses, victims, and local residents of Russia-occupied territories, in person or by telephone. Some people asked to be identified only by their first names or by pseudonyms for their protection...

https://www.hrw.org/news/2022/04/03/ukraine-apparent-war-crimes-russia-controlle...
_____________________________________________

Jack Detsch (Foreign Policy) @JackDetsch | 5:42 PM · Apr 3, 2022

NEW: Russian troops built a 45-foot long mass grave in a church yard after killing hundreds of Ukrainian civilians in massacres in Bucha, near the capital of Kyiv.

Ukrainian troops liberated the city as Russia recently retreated from positions near Kyiv.

📷:@Maxar
Aerial photo of Bucha churchyard ( https://twitter.com/JackDetsch/status/1510734387729649676 )
_____________________________________________

Russia denies Bucha massacre: "another hoax", "a staged provocation for the Western media"
Photo of Russian statement ( https://twitter.com/Putin_it_to_ya/status/1510703897244971009/photo/1 )
----------------------------------------------------------

Putin's troops besieging Kiev included Chechens:

Ukrainians fear Chechen fighters. Russian soldiers hate them
Ramzan Kadyrov's fighters once fought and killed Putin's forces
Julius Strauss | 16 March 2022
https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/ukrainians-fear-chechen-fighters-russian-sol...
_____________________________________________

Olga Irisova @IrisovaOlga | 8:33 AM · Apr 3, 2022:
German Chancellor fellow at Alexander von Humboldt Foundation, Editor-in-Chief at @RiddleRussia...

Tram stop near Russian embassy in Stockholm. “Dear KGB agents and other staff of Russian embassy: find it difficult to go to work? Feeling shame at the end of each working day? Soon it will be too late to escape! Get in touch with us for advise on how to get political asylum.”

Photo of sign at Stockholm tram stop ( https://twitter.com/IrisovaOlga/status/1510596423334694920 )
----------------------------------------------------------

Rachel Kelly @rksve:
Here's some pictures from the park behind this bus stop (taken 2 weeks ago).
https://twitter.com/rksve/status/1510623611509522433/photo/1
https://twitter.com/rksve/status/1510623611509522433/photo/2
https://twitter.com/rksve/status/1510623611509522433/photo/3
https://twitter.com/rksve/status/1510623611509522433/photo/4

Russian embassy in the background.
https://twitter.com/rksve/status/1510884419376144389/photo/1

_____________________________________________

The Lincoln Project @ProjectLincoln | 9:05 AM · Apr 5, 2022
Trump and his allies aren’t looking away from this. They’re promoting it.

Genocide
From The Lincoln Project
2:08 ( https://twitter.com/ProjectLincoln/status/1511329094323126278 )

A pattern of atrocities that are not limited to Bucha is beginning to emerge in Ukraine.
We travelled to Borodyanka, just 15 miles away, where we also found evidence of summary executions.
Our report for PBS @NewsHour pbs.org

Russian retreat from areas around Kyiv reveals 'pattern of apparent war crimes' (6:07, transcript)
As the world responds to apparent Russian atrocities in Ukraine, more evidence of the civilian toll is emerging near the city of Bucha.
Simon Ostrovsky and videographer Yegor Troyanovsky, Alexis Cox | April 5, 2022

-Simon Ostrovsky (PBS) @SimonOstrovsky | 2:26 AM · Apr 6, 2022

>130 margd: I think Russia should be expelled from the United Nations. They no longer have any credible claim to it’s mission.

>131 2wonderY: Can't disagree... Is there a mechanism, though? And would there be a quorum?

Execution of Village Mayor Becomes Symbol of Russian Brutality in Ukraine
A beloved mayor and her family helped townspeople resist Russian occupation. They paid for it with their lives. ‘Why were they killed? Because they were Ukrainians’
James Marson | Photographs by Emanuele Satolli | Apr. 5, 2022

A car that belonged to Motyzhyn Mayor Olha Sukhenko's family was found near a mass grave with a V symbol used by Russian forces. (photo)

MOTYZHYN, Ukraine—Mayor Olha Sukhenko took care of her village like a family for more than a decade, locals say, sprucing up public buildings, organizing concerts and settling disputes.

When the Russian army withdrew last week after a monthlong occupation, her neighbors found Ms. Sukhenko’s lifeless body in a shallow grave, her hands bound. Her husband and son lay next to her, dead...

https://www.wsj.com/articles/execution-of-village-mayor-becomes-symbol-of-russia...

>131 2wonderY:

I don't agree. Further exclusion and isolation is not going to bring peace to the world, and the UN is the one forum where Russia has to at least listen to other nations, not only in the assembly but also in all the behind-the-scenes diplomacy that goes on there. Once we start expelling nations, where do we stop? Israel has ignored and/or rejected more UN resolutions than any other nation. The USA invaded Iraq and other nations without a UN mandate. Membership of the UN should not be a reward for good behaviour, but a recognition that, however imperfect it may be, there has to be some multilateral international body where all nations can meet.

What I do believe, though, is that we need to reform the archaic system where five nations have a permanent seat on the UN Security Council and also have a veto simply because they happened to be on the "winning" side of World War II and were amongst the first to possess nuclear weapons.

>133 John5918: well, let’s explore that Security Council thought. I think it’s been suggested that Russia is not the Soviet Union and should not have inherited its seat. I suppose it remains there just because of its nuclear arsenal.

>131 2wonderY: One mechanism, below:

U.S. pushes to suspend Russia from U.N. human rights body
Michelle Nichols | 5 April 2022

The United States will ask the U.N. General Assembly to suspend Russia from the Human Rights Council, the U.S. ambassador to the United Nations said on Monday, after Ukraine accused Russian troops of killing dozens of civilians in the town of Bucha.

A two-thirds majority vote by the 193-member assembly in New York can suspend a state for persistently committing gross and systematic violations of human rights...

https://www.reuters.com/world/urgent-us-pushes-suspend-russia-human-rights-counc...
______________________________________________

Sergej Sumlenny @sumlenny | 5:22 AM · Apr 4, 2022
Berlin-based 🇩🇪 Eastern Europe expert. 10+ yrs of work in Ukraine, Russia, Belarus. Former Director @boell_stiftung
Kyiv (UA+BY)office. Speak 🇩🇪🇺🇦🇧🇾🇷🇺
https://twitter.com/sumlenny/status/1510910740261134338 (texts are in Russian)

THREAD: Russian state-owned propaganda outlet RIA published the new programmatic article with the title "What Russia must do with Ukraine". The article reveals a detailed plan for a genocide, starting from full elimination of Ukrainian state. Details below.
1st page, in Russian ( https://twitter.com/sumlenny/status/1510910740261134338/photo/1 )

1) it calls almost every Ukrainian a Nazi who deserves death. "Nazis who took weapons, must be killed in numbers as much as possible... Not just the elites, the most of the people are guilty, they are passive Nazis, Nazi enablers. They supported these elites and must be punished"

2) It foresees tyrannic approach to culture. "Further denacification of the mass of the population is to be reached through ideological repression (oppression) of Nazi ideas and through harsh censorship: not only in politics, but in culture and education areas".

3) it foresees economic and political destruction of Ukraine: "Ukraine must pay for its guilt towards Russia. It must be treated as an enemy, and therefore may develop only in dependency to Russia. No "Marshall plan" may happen. No "neutrality" both ideological or practical".

4) A tyrannical future emerges: "Personnel providing denazification in new denazified republics (plural! - Sumlenny) cannot act on another way but only with direct military-police and management support from Russia. Denazification must be a Deukrainisation".

5) Ukraine is the enemy: "The history has proven: Ukraine may not exist as a national state. Any attempt to create it leads to Nazism. Ukrainism is an artificial anti-Russian construct... De-banderisation is not enough... Denazification of Ukraine must be De-Europeazation of it".

6) Deliberate targeting of civilians: "The Bandera-elites must be liquidated, they cannot be re-educated. The social "swamp" who supported them must experience terror of war and learn the lesson, and pay for its guilt".

Well, I expect from those who supported Russia in its war and who found excuses for Russia, to find excuses for these plans. And also for the purchases of Russian gas. The link to the article for those who want to google translate the whole text: https://ria.ru/20220403/ukraina-1781469605.html

You can also read my older thread about why this policy of destroying Ukrainian identity is not something new, but is a continuation of 300-years-long Russian (and Soviet) politics....

President @ZelenskyyUa today: "The Article 'What Russia must do with Ukraine' must become one of evidences for a future international tribunal": https://ru.interfax.com.ua/news/general/821045.html

Alexey Navalny @navalny | 11:43 AM · Apr 5, 2022:
Основатель Фонда борьбы с коррупцией, лидер партии Россия Будущего.
https://twitter.com/navalny/status/1511368941758787592

1/14 How an ordinary Russian TV viewer (one of whom I currently am) sees it.
I learned about the monstrous events in Bucha yesterday morning from the news that Russia was convening the UN Security Council in connection with the massacre by Ukrainian Nazis in Bucha.

2/14 In the evening, the Channel One anchor explained everything. And I wouldn't have believed it if I hadn't seen it with my own eyes and heard it with my own ears:

3/14 "NATO has been preparing he provocation in Bucha for a long time and at the highest level. It is also confirmed by the fact that President Biden called Putin a "butcher" not long ago”.

4/14 “Listen how consonant the English word "butcher" and the name of the city "Bucha" are. This is how the Western audience was subconsciously prepared for this provocation."

5/14 I'm telling you, the monstrosity of lies on federal channels is unimaginable. And, unfortunately, so is its persuasiveness for those who have no access to alternative information.

6/14 My point is that Putin's propaganda has long ceased to be a tool. They are actual warmongers and have become a party in their own right.

7/14 The endlessly squealing anchors and their "experts" are revving up their fury and have long since surpassed the military in their aggressiveness.

8/14 They demand a war to the bitter end, storming Kyiv, bombing Lviv. Even the prospect of a nuclear war does not scare them. They mop up the floor with their fellow Putinists on live television if they as much as hint at the fact that peace talks are a good thing...
_____________________________________________

As the world reacts in horror to Bucha, China’s state media strikes a different tone
Simone McCarthy and Yong Xiong | April 6, 2022

...domestic media reports on the civilian casualties in Bucha have been quick to emphasize the Russian rebuttal, with two prominent televised reports from national broadcaster CCTV this week highlighting unsubstantiated claims from Moscow that the situation was staged after Russian forces withdrew from the area.

In one report, a caption citing Russia with the words “Ukrainians directed a good show,” flashes over heavily blurred footage from the Ukrainian town.

Beijing has sought to portray itself as a neutral actor, calling for peace while blaming the situation on the United States.

...This was on show in an editorial published in the nationalist tabloid the Global Times on Wednesday, which appeared to question the veracity of what it called, in quotes, the “Bucha incident” and absolve Russia of responsibility.

“It is regrettable that after the exposure of the ‘Bucha incident,’ the US, the initiator of the Ukraine crisis, has not shown any signs of urging peace and promoting talks, but is ready to exacerbate the Russia-Ukraine tensions,” the editorial said.

... At a UN Security Council special session on Tuesday, Chinese Ambassador Zhang Jun acknowledged that the images of civilian deaths in Bucha were “deeply disturbing,” but when it came to attributing blame for the situation he urged “all sides” to “exercise restraint and avoid unfounded accusations.”

“The relevant circumstances and specific causes of the incident should be verified and established. Any accusations should be based on facts,” Zhang said....

https://www.cnn.com/2022/04/06/china/china-reacts-bucha-ukraine-atrocities-intl-...

The Czech Republic has become the first country to donate tanks to Ukraine.

Czech Deputy Defense Minister Tomáš Kopečný says that the country has sent more than a dozen modernized, Soviet-designed T-72M tanks.

Time for NATO to send those S-300s and MiG-29s too!

-Visegrád 24 @visegrad24 | 2:56 PM · Apr 5, 2022
Aggregating and curating news, politics, current affairs, history and culture from the Visegrád countries.
The Visegrád Group is a cultural and political alliance of four Central European countries: the Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland, and Slovakia. (wikipedia)
__________________________________________________
ETA:

Denmark imposes moratorium on purchase of Russian oil
20:05 04.04.2022

Denmark has decided not to buy oil from Russia, Andriy Yermak, head of the President's Office, said.

"Denmark has imposed a moratorium on the purchase of Russian oil. An example for others is that the oil embargo should work, the sooner the better," Yermak wrote on the Telegram channel on Monday.

https://en.interfax.com.ua/news/general/821024.html

Mark Hertling @MarkHertling | 5:50 PM · Apr 4, 2022:
Retired soldier. Loves family, dedicated to nation. Studies leadership, nat’l security & healthcare. Commissioner, @usabmc...
https://twitter.com/MarkHertling/status/1511098952933945347

The National Security Advisor @jakejsullivan just briefed what might happen next.
His brief fits well into my desire to provide a 🧵 on what both sides face in the next weeks/months.
Key topics: what we'll see, regeneration, & the battle of attrition that is coming 1/22

The NSA said RU wants to refocus on Donbas...the east of UKR where there's been fighting since 2014.
That seems likely, but there's more to it. I don't expect a RU "frontal assault" into Donetsk & Lahansk, but rather an envelopment from N & S.
And...perhaps more. 2/

RU's original strategic objectives were to destroy UKR army/subjugate the population.
They will NOT give up territorial gains they've made in the N...the road from Kharkiv to Izyum
There is still the desire to control Donbas & they also want the Azov & Black Sea coasts. 3/

Along the coasts, the fights in Mariupol & Berendyansk in the east have been brutal, as have the fights in Kherson and Mykolaiv (in the west)
In the S, they get logistics from their bases in Crimea.
But RU will want more - much more - in the South. 4/

RU still wants Odesa...and more.
I believe the plan is "hold in the east, move S from Kharkiv and Izyum, link Mariupol w/ Donetsk S of the Dnieper, move N toward Dnipro, attk from the sea, & move further W to Odesa...& beyond?
Here's an imprecise operational sketch: https://twitter.com/MarkHertling/status/1511098964908691456/photo/1 5/

Less ambitious than the original plan...
but still indicative of a lack of troop-to-task reqt, log support planning, understanding of terrain & UKR Army, & knowledge of the capability of the UKR force.
I will predict - again - RU will be challenged with all this 6/

Over the last few days, we've heard the RU force N of Kyiv is "withdrawing" or "redeploying."
Both those terms indicate a force moving under a pre-determined plan.
That's not what happened N of Kyiv.
The RU forces there were mauled, routed. 7/
Photo ( https://twitter.com/MarkHertling/status/1511098969518231553/photo/1 )

The RU forces - of various types - have suffered losses beyond comprehension. Some estimates have said 10-15%...I'd put it closer to 30-50% of the front line combat units.
This isn't a computer game, or stratego...those forces do not just leave one area to fight in another. 8/

UKR MoD estimated RU casualty figures of 18,000+ soldiers; 700 tanks destroyed or captured.
As an old tank Division Commander, those figures are unfathomable to me.
The US went into Desert Storm with 400k+ troops and a bunch of equipment...imagine those losses back then. 9/

Which brings me to RECONSTITUTION, a doctrinal term describing REORGANIZATION of units (into other units, or combining depleted units together) with REGENERATION of capabilities (due to loss of leadership, men, equipment, supplies).
It's hard, sometimes impossible. 10/

The US Army has doctrine on reconstitution & there has been extensive study in military schoolhouses.
Luckily, we've never had to do it combat. But we do practice it at our training centers.
Here's a "lesson learned" pamphlet from @USArmy_CALL 11/
https://usacac.army.mil/sites/default/files/publications/20-01.pdf

To reconstitute, you need to consider:
1. State of chain of command (leadership)
2. Personnel losses
3. Equipment readiness to reenter the fight
4. Supplies on hand to support the equipment & men
5. Training needs to overcome first fight failures
RU gets an F in all. 12/

Based on loss of leaders, loss of RU soldiers, the terrible condition of equipment & supplies going into the fight, the extremely poor training of RU units, regeneration is gonna be tough.
You can't throw units like these back into the fight and expect different results. 13/

The DIA assessment is that RU has committed 60-70% of their fighting units to this mission.
RU is also at the beginning of a new conscription process, with old conscripted schedule to leave soon.
I'd suggest RU is not in great shape to continue this campaign anytime soon. 14/

There's another piece. RU soldiers have been in the field Belorus for months, in intense combat over 6 wks.
Physical, mental, psychological & emotional factors have taken their toll.
Many have committed criminal actions.
Those troops, in my view, are done. 15/

Add to this something I've said earlier (and will portray with this hand-drawn graphic): Movement. RU must use exterior lines to reposition units, while UKR can use interior lines.
It's about 1400 miles - the distance between Boston & St Louis - around UKR. 16/
Map ( https://twitter.com/MarkHertling/status/1511098986874159111/photo/1 )

Certainly, Ukrainian troops & territorial forces have also taken a toll...but they have massive support from civilians, politicians, each other. And they're fighting on their own ground. They're getting resupplied, albeit slowly. That should increase. 17/

So, here's the matchup
RUSSIA:
-RU likely hasn't fixed any of their many problems
-their units are spent, and there are few replacements
-their logistics base is bad, and will get worse
-they are still attacking on at least 3 axes & appear to not have a centralized command. 18/
-a call for war crime tribunals
-Most importantly, they are facing resistance from UKR forces, territorials & civilians...who are all increasingly pissed about what RU has done to their country, and how they've committed war crimes. 19/

UKR:
-Also spent from fighting, but maintain great initiative & the fighting spirit. They've suffered casualties, but likely way less than RU.
-They have interior lines & support from citizens & allies (again, more than most realize).
-Better civilian & military leadership. 20/
-UA will face RU attacks on different axes & will need to quickly maneuver forces to face RUs at different locations.
-regeneration of logistics, equipment, personnel will be as important to UKR as it will be to RU, because that's what a battle of attrition requires. 21/

Bottom line:
The civilian casualties and war crimes will affect Ukraine, but they will fight on.
And I still believe they must - and will - defeat and perhaps destroy the RU army. 22/22

>131 2wonderY: and others

The United Nations has the power to punish Putin. This is how it can be done (Guardian)

Numerous proposals have been floated and sunk over the years, mostly involving the enlargement of the UNSC’s permanent membership to include states such as Japan, Brazil, India, South Africa and Germany. Some suggest abolishing the UNSC veto. All such ideas have predictably foundered on national rivalries and the jealous preservation of existing rights, with Britain and France prominent among the guilty parties.

This situation plainly cannot continue while Ukraine burns. A sensible, doable first step would be to hold an exceptional one-off vote to allow majority voting in the security council on specifically Ukraine-related issues and override Russia’s inevitable veto. The rule change could be ratified by the anti-Russia two-thirds majority that already exists in the general assembly. If Putin didn’t like it, he could lump it. And if he didn’t comply with subsequent resolutions – for example, on withdrawing Russian forces – all UN members would be expected to support UN-agreed punitive measures, as in the case of North Korea.

Majority voting in the UNSC could be introduced more generally over time. But, in any event, Guterres should now ask all member states to support the convening of a new foundational conference akin to that in San Francisco in 1945, to relaunch the UN, institutionally and organisationally, in ways that reflect the global power balances and priorities of the 21st century.

This is a critical moment. Ukraine needs urgent help. The UN desperately needs a fresh start. And so, too, does the disintegrating international order. If the UN fails over Putin and Ukraine as the League of Nations did over Mussolini and Ethiopia, then the global consequences, as in the 1930s, may be catastrophic for all.

>139 John5918: Thanks for checking on that.

>139 John5918: A reconstituted UN might be able to more effectively address other issues such as climate change?

>141 margd:

Definitely. The current UN system leaves the real power in the hands of the Security Council, and in that council there are five permanent member states which have a veto - USA, China, Russia, UK and France. Since east and west are usually ideologically opposed to each other, it is very difficult to pass any resolution which is not fudged and watered down. As that article suggests, there should be some way of overcoming a veto, perhaps with a sort of super-majority in the General Assembly. There should also be serious discussion on whether those five powers should remain permanent members of the Security Council, whether the Council should be expanded with other permanent members, and indeed whether there should even be provision for a veto. The balance of power in the world is far different now than it was at the end of World War II, and many of the current members of the UN did not even exist as independent countries at that time. While it certainly makes sense to have some of the more powerful members of the global community on the Security Council (as per the old adage "better to have someone inside the tent pissing out than outside pissing in") but it shouldn't simply be a clique dominated by the biggest bullies on the block (and particularly ex-bullies, as UK and France can no longer be considered to be in the top tier of global powers).

>135 margd:

Russia has officially been expelled from the UN Human Rights Commission after a vote of the general assembly
Record of vote ( https://twitter.com/Blake_Allen13/status/1512097579970015236/photo/1 )

- Blake Allen @Blake_Allen13 | 11:58 AM · Apr 7, 2022
Former campaign finance hack, former staffer at OU International Human Rights Clinic. Attorney. Choctaw...
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(93 countries, including the U.S., voted in favor of removal. 24 countries opposed the measure, and 58 abstained)
--------------------------------------------------------
:o\

This is great and appropriate, but if we continue down this path the entire Human Rights Council will consist of Denmark.

- Clifford Asness @CliffordAsness | 11:56 AM · Apr 7, 2022

Kristin Wilson (CNN) @kristin__wilson | 1:12 PM · Apr 7, 2022:
413-9. The House members who voted against the bill to ban Russian oil, coal and natural gas.

GOP:
Marjorie Taylor Greene
Tom Massie
Matt Gaetz
Dan Bishop
Andy Biggs
Chip Roy
Paul Gosar

DEM:
Ilhan Omar
Cori Bush
--------------------------------------------

Sarah Clark @a_bowl_of_stars | 3:31 PM · Apr 7, 2022
I suspect the two surprise oppositions were over this administration’s inaction in Tigray

Quote Tweet
🇺🇦 Валерія Voshchevska
@Val_Voshchevska
· Apr 6
If you care about what’s going on in my country Ukraine you should also care about what’s going on in Western #Tigray. Horrifying but important report from @hrw and amnesty. With amazing work by @vanessatsehaye. Stand against atrocities everywhere. https://amnesty.org/en/latest/news/2022/04/ethiopia-crimes-against-humanity-in-w...
Show this thread

Russia’s war dead belie its slogan that no one is left behind
As Russian mothers and widows grieve, countless bodies are unclaimed in Ukraine
Robyn Dixon, Sudarsan Raghavan, Isabelle Khurshudyan, and David L. Stern | 8 April 2022

...Ukraine has about 7,000 unclaimed Russian corpses in morgues and refrigerated rail cars, according to Oleksiy Arestovych, adviser to the head of Ukraine’s presidential administration. He said his government’s figure of 18,600 Russian dead was based on Ukrainian reports from the battlefield and intercepted Russian military communications.

...(Valentina Melnikova, former leader of The Soldiers’ Mothers Committee) said she believes Ukraine’s list is fairly accurate because it lists names from identity documents.

“But since our army does not collect the bodies of the dead and don’t always pick up the wounded, there can be many discrepancies,” she said, referring to Russia’s figures. “It’s cheaper to report them as ‘missing in action.’”

...Sergei Krivenko, director of the rights group “Citizen Army Law,” said Russians were sensitive about deaths of conscripts. Putin has said that conscripts have not been sent to Ukraine, but some have been. Losses among volunteers or “contract” soldiers in Ukraine, however, are less shocking.

“The mentality is that you’re paid for this and if you are sent to a military operation and you die, it’s your choice,” Krivenko said. “A soldier is just a tool to do a job. … The main task is to destroy the enemy, and how many losses we take is a secondary issue.”...

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/04/08/russia-war-dead-soldiers-bodies/

Putin's Exploitation of Africa Could Help Him Evade Sanctions (TIME)

Since the invasion of Ukraine, an extraordinary coalition of allies is working together to isolate Russia economically, imposing sanctions and cutting off access to the global financial system. This campaign has shown success in degrading Russia’s economy. The Kremlin, however, may find a financial lifeline in an unlikely place—Africa. The more successful the economic war on Russia is, the more the Kremlin will rely on plundered African resources as a means of evading sanctions and keeping the Russian war machine going...

Africa might seem remote from the current war in Ukraine; worse yet, some may disregard Africa as a strategic priority for the U.S. But make no mistake: Putin and his allies favor kleptocracy. They thrive on corruption. In the end, their only real ideology is graft, and when they are able to spread it, they create new zones in which they can exert their influence. Corrupt leaders in places like Sudan, CAR, and Mali welcome Moscow’s mercenaries under the guise of law and order, but in reality they use the hired guns to maintain their own power. In exchange, they barter away precious national resources to Russia...

Two massacres, continents apart (The New Humanitarian)

The massacre of what authorities say is at least 320 civilians in Bucha, a small city northwest of Kyiv, has captured global attention...

As the Bucha killings triggered global outcry, an atrocity involving Russian forces in the central Malian town of Moura garnered far less attention. Mercenaries from the Kremlin-linked Wagner Group are accused of executing between 300-500 people while conducting an anti-jihadist offensive alongside the Malian army. Rights groups say the massacre – which started on 27 March – is the worst single atrocity reported in a decade-long armed conflict...

Oksana Ostapchuk (political sci) @O_Ostapchuk | 12:07 AM · Apr 9, 2022

I owe you some positive news
Oleksandr Hutsal, 14, saved the lives of his parents, 3 younger siblings and 30 more people surviving a monthlong Russian siege of #Bucha. Every day the boy sneaked through Russian position to find food, water & wood and bring them back to the basement
Photo ( https://twitter.com/O_Ostapchuk/status/1512643300741816322/photo/1 )

The boy risking his life under Russian gunfire let over three dozens of civilians survive a month in extreme cold - only 8° C. One man has been shot by Russians when he left a shelter to smoke. The boy's family'll remain in the basement till public utilities are restored in Bucha

From what I learned the basement seemed to be filled mainly with vulnerable people I guess. His father was busy with strengthening the basement from inside (Russians tried to break into), mom has 3 more kids (including a toddler) and cooked for all people.

Article: https://tsn.ua/ru/ato/riskoval-zhiznyu-chtoby-prokormit-semyu-14-letniy-malchik-...

Elon Musk...

U.S. quietly paying millions to send Starlink terminals to Ukraine, contrary to SpaceX claims
Cristiano Lima with research by Aaron Schaffer | April 8, 2022
https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2022/04/08/us-quietly-paying-millions-se...

Ukraine War Drives Food Prices to Record High
Soaring prices for grain and other produce threaten shortages for the world’s poor and headaches for food manufacturers
Alistair MacDonald and Patrick Thomas | Apr. 8, 2022
https://www.wsj.com/articles/ukraine-war-drives-food-prices-to-record-high-11649...

David Frum @davidfrum | 9:44 AM · Apr 11, 2022
The time to begin thinking about Ukraine reconstruction is now

Quote Tweet
The Atlantic @TheAtlantic · 1h
"Ukraine needs both large, immediate infusions of cash aid to help with social and military costs now, and a promise of early and full reconstruction in partnership with Western allies," @davidfrum writes:
http://on.theatln.tc/BOy2hdK

Some key points from my piece on Ukraine reconstruction
1) The physical rebuild cannot begin yet - but now is exactly the time to make decisions about how to apportion costs and how to impose reparation on Russia.

2) Ukraine has large immediate cash needs. At the same time as it must finance its defense against Russian aggression, it continues to owe pensions and operate a health system - despite the collapse of the economy and the disappearance of tax revenues.

3) Reconstruction means more than just restoring what existed before. Ukraine needs to reorient its economy to European standards - eg convert its railway network from USSR to EU gauges; improve highway connections; upgrade environmental standards.

4) Reconstruction bill will seem huge. Doubtful that enough can be extracted from Russia to cover them. Funds from Western allies will be required.

5) But don't be daunted by apparent bill of Ukraine reconstruction. Back in the 1960s, Italian economic catch-up stimulated growth in northern European economies. Ukraine catchup can be a growth bonus too for all its partners, especially in slow-growing EU
----------------------------------------------------------

Anthony Veitch @tonyveitchuk | 10:50 AM · Apr 11, 2022
The railway gauge issue would be a hell of a lot of work. But at least it's in the easier direction - narrower.

Russia appoints general with cruel history to oversee Ukraine offensive
Russian Gen. Alexander Dvornikov most recently oversaw Russian troops in Syria and has a history of targeting civilians.
Doha Madani, Courtney Kube and Alexander Smith | April 10, 2022

...Gen. Alexander Dvornikov ... appointment signifies an apparent streamlining of Russia's chain of command, replacing the three commanders previously heading the war with one central figure ahead of an expected renewed assault in Ukraine's eastern Donbas region.

The decision to bring in Dvornikov could also be an acknowledgment of what U.S. intelligence officials have described as a failure to achieve the quick takeover Russian President Vladimir Putin envisioned, retired Adm. James Stavridis said Sunday on “NBC Nightly News.”

"The appointment of this new general indicates Vladimir Putin’s intent to continue this conflict for months, if not years...He is the goon called in by Vladimir Putin to flatten cities like Aleppo in Syria...He has used tools of terrorism throughout that period, including working with the Syrian forces, torture centers, systematic rape, nerve agents. He is the worst of the worst."

...Until now, Russia's invasion of Ukraine has had "essentially three competing field commanders," said Mark Galeotti, a senior associate fellow at the Royal United Services Institute, a think tank based in London.

That fragmented hierarchy "reflects the fact that really this war was not started by the generals, but by the spooks; Putin and a handful of his closet ex-KGB allies have been micromanaging the process," he said. "There's a recognition that this didn't work, and now it's time to let the Russian army fight the way it was trained and prepared to fight."...

https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/russia-appoints-general-cruel-history-oversee...

Ukraine war could worsen crises in Yemen and Afghanistan (BBC)

"Don't make us take food from children that are hungry to give to children that are starving," pleads the United Nations World Food Programme (WFP). Soaring food and fuel costs, together with budget cuts in some traditional donor countries, have forced the WFP to halve the amount of food it is giving to millions of people in Yemen, Chad and Niger... As aid workers stress, these are not people who will be made a bit more comfortable by help from the UN. They are people, particularly children, who will probably die without it. But that appeal was made before Russia invaded Ukraine. Both countries used to sell grain to the WFP. Back then, Ukraine was a supplier, not a country in need of humanitarian assistance...

https://original.antiwar.com/mcgovern/2022/04/10/mearsheimer-russia-sees-existen...
Mearsheimer: Russia Sees ‘Existential Threat,’ Must Win
by Ray McGovern Posted on April 11, 2022

University of Chicago Professor John Mearsheimer, widely respected "dean" of the realism school (aka, "offensive realism") of international relations, has put the conflict in Ukraine in a context that everyone can understand – and needs to understand before it is too late.

Speaking at an April 7 webinar, Mearsheimer was, true to form, "offensively realistic". He explained: (1) the root cause lies in the April 2008 NATO summit Declaration that Ukraine (and Georgia) "will become members of NATO"; and (2) that Russia sees this as an "existential threat" and therefore "must win" this one.

Houston, We Have a Problem

For President Joe Biden and the Democrats, even though Ukraine poses zero strategic threat to the U.S., a Russian "win" would be, politically, a "devastating defeat", says Mearsheimer. In that sense, the conflict is a "must-win" for the US as well. Underscoring the obvious, he noted it is impossible for both sides to "win" – at least not in current circumstances.

Compromise? The kind of give and take needed to cobble together some kind of compromise has become equally impossible with the years-long demonization of Russian President Vladimir Putin. One cannot compromise, of course, with the devil – even if this means that others (in this case, the militarily outmatched Ukrainians) have to shed more blood – of course, not US/NATO blood so far. But this may come; there are always unintended consequences from what historian Barbara Tuchman called the March of Folly toward war.

Mearsheimer notes that the US is already "as close as you can get" to being directly involved. And who can be sure that President Biden will be able to continue resisting ever mounting pressure to do more. And what are the odds that President Putin will be able to resist similar pressures to take fuller advantage of Russia’s dominance in its "near-abroad". By invading Ukraine he has already acted more aggressively than many analysts, myself included, thought likely.

NATO is still doubling down, sending weaponry into Ukraine, even as Russia makes it clear it will try to destroy them as soon as they cross the border. However "offensive" you may find Mearsheimer’s realism, it is, well, real. His enviable historical record is clear; he is not given to overstatement. And so he must be taken seriously when he points out that the Ukraine conflict is more dangerous than the Cuban missile crisis of 60 years ago and that, like the situation in 1962, escalation to the use of nuclear weapons is a growing possibility....