Climate change issues, prevention, adaptation 11
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1margd
Greenland Polar Bears...
Michael V. Westbury et al. 2023. Impact of Holocene environmental change on the evolutionary ecology of an Arctic top predator. Science Advances 8 Nov 2023, Vol 9, Issue 45. DOI: 10.1126/sciadv.adf3326 https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/sciadv.adf3326
...DISCUSSION
...Our study demonstrates the long-term association between demographic change and environmental perturbations in an Arctic top predator. The indirect connection of the polar bear to lower trophic levels can therefore be used to infer ecological dynamics across millennia. Collectively, our results suggest that the size and connectivity of polar bear populations around Greenland have been negatively influenced by past increases in SST (sea surface temperature), decreases in sea ice cover, and losses in the southern parts of the range, in line with predictions of contemporary populations... However, our findings also suggest that bears may ecologically adapt relatively rapidly. This ability is crucial for their resilience to ongoing rapid shifts in the distribution and abundance of prey caused by anthropogenic climate change... Adaptation through phenotypic and/or ecological shifts is more rapid than by DNA nucleotide changes and is a major factor allowing species to survive conditions of accelerating changes in climate and food availability... However, even with behavioral and phenotypic plasticity, the pace and scale of predicted near-future ecological change in the Arctic.., coupled with a long generation time, are likely to leave polar bears vulnerable to climate and environmental change in the near future...
Photo swimming polar bear ( https://twitter.com/ScienceMagazine/status/1724683715035484597/photo/1 )
Michael V. Westbury et al. 2023. Impact of Holocene environmental change on the evolutionary ecology of an Arctic top predator. Science Advances 8 Nov 2023, Vol 9, Issue 45. DOI: 10.1126/sciadv.adf3326 https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/sciadv.adf3326
...DISCUSSION
...Our study demonstrates the long-term association between demographic change and environmental perturbations in an Arctic top predator. The indirect connection of the polar bear to lower trophic levels can therefore be used to infer ecological dynamics across millennia. Collectively, our results suggest that the size and connectivity of polar bear populations around Greenland have been negatively influenced by past increases in SST (sea surface temperature), decreases in sea ice cover, and losses in the southern parts of the range, in line with predictions of contemporary populations... However, our findings also suggest that bears may ecologically adapt relatively rapidly. This ability is crucial for their resilience to ongoing rapid shifts in the distribution and abundance of prey caused by anthropogenic climate change... Adaptation through phenotypic and/or ecological shifts is more rapid than by DNA nucleotide changes and is a major factor allowing species to survive conditions of accelerating changes in climate and food availability... However, even with behavioral and phenotypic plasticity, the pace and scale of predicted near-future ecological change in the Arctic.., coupled with a long generation time, are likely to leave polar bears vulnerable to climate and environmental change in the near future...
Photo swimming polar bear ( https://twitter.com/ScienceMagazine/status/1724683715035484597/photo/1 )
2margd
Drawing on 30 years of data, researchers in Science show that the number of homes within wildfire perimeters in the U.S. has doubled since the 1990s:
Judson Boomhower 2023. Adapting to growing wildfire property risk. Cost-effective and equitable physical and financial protections are needed. Science 9 Nov 2023, Vol 382, Issue 6671, pp. 638-641
DOI: 10.1126/science.adk7118 https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/science.adk7118
Judson Boomhower 2023. Adapting to growing wildfire property risk. Cost-effective and equitable physical and financial protections are needed. Science 9 Nov 2023, Vol 382, Issue 6671, pp. 638-641
DOI: 10.1126/science.adk7118 https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/science.adk7118
3margd
How does climate change threaten where you live? A region-by-region guide.
The U.S. government's most comprehensive report on the effects of climate change details challenges for every part of the country.
Grist staff | Nov 14, 2023
Every four years, the federal government is required to gather up the leading research on how climate change is affecting Americans, boil it all down, and then publish a National Climate Assessment. This report, a collaboration between more than a dozen federal agencies and a wide array of academic researchers, takes stock of just how severe global warming has become and meticulously breaks down its effects by geography — 10 distinct regions in total, encompassing all of the country’s states and territories.
The last report, which the Trump administration tried to bury when it came out in 2018, was the most dire since the first assessment was published in 2000. Until now.
The Fifth National Climate Assessment, released on Tuesday by the Biden administration, is unique for its focus on the present. Like previous versions, it looks at how rising temperatures will change the United States in decades to come, but it also makes clear that the rising seas, major hurricanes, and other disastrous consequences of climate change predicted in prior reports have begun to arrive. The effects are felt in every region. In the 1980s, the country saw a billion-dollar disaster every four months on average. Now, there’s one billion-dollar disaster every three weeks, according to the assessment. All of the many extreme weather events that hit the U.S., from the tiniest flood to the biggest hurricane, cost around $150 billion every year — and that’s likely a huge underestimate...
https://grist.org/climate/national-climate-assessment-2023-us-regional-impacts-s...
-------------------------------------------
The Fifth National Climate Assessment
US 2023
The Fifth National Climate Assessment is the US Government’s preeminent report on climate change impacts, risks, and responses. It is a congressionally mandated interagency effort that provides the scientific foundation to support informed decision-making across the United States.
1. Overview
2. How the United States Is Addressing Climate Change
3. How the United States Is Experiencing Climate Change
4. Current and Future Climate Risks to the United States
5. The Choices That Will Determine the Future
6. How Climate Action Can Create a More Resilient and Just Nation
https://nca2023.globalchange.gov/
The U.S. government's most comprehensive report on the effects of climate change details challenges for every part of the country.
Grist staff | Nov 14, 2023
Every four years, the federal government is required to gather up the leading research on how climate change is affecting Americans, boil it all down, and then publish a National Climate Assessment. This report, a collaboration between more than a dozen federal agencies and a wide array of academic researchers, takes stock of just how severe global warming has become and meticulously breaks down its effects by geography — 10 distinct regions in total, encompassing all of the country’s states and territories.
The last report, which the Trump administration tried to bury when it came out in 2018, was the most dire since the first assessment was published in 2000. Until now.
The Fifth National Climate Assessment, released on Tuesday by the Biden administration, is unique for its focus on the present. Like previous versions, it looks at how rising temperatures will change the United States in decades to come, but it also makes clear that the rising seas, major hurricanes, and other disastrous consequences of climate change predicted in prior reports have begun to arrive. The effects are felt in every region. In the 1980s, the country saw a billion-dollar disaster every four months on average. Now, there’s one billion-dollar disaster every three weeks, according to the assessment. All of the many extreme weather events that hit the U.S., from the tiniest flood to the biggest hurricane, cost around $150 billion every year — and that’s likely a huge underestimate...
https://grist.org/climate/national-climate-assessment-2023-us-regional-impacts-s...
-------------------------------------------
The Fifth National Climate Assessment
US 2023
The Fifth National Climate Assessment is the US Government’s preeminent report on climate change impacts, risks, and responses. It is a congressionally mandated interagency effort that provides the scientific foundation to support informed decision-making across the United States.
1. Overview
2. How the United States Is Addressing Climate Change
3. How the United States Is Experiencing Climate Change
4. Current and Future Climate Risks to the United States
5. The Choices That Will Determine the Future
6. How Climate Action Can Create a More Resilient and Just Nation
https://nca2023.globalchange.gov/
4margd
More lightning, more wildfires and a warmer world. Welcome to the ‘doom loop’
Climate-induced lightning is becoming more frequent and powerful, triggering more wildfires, particularly in Siberia, Canada and Alaska, and releasing the carbon locked in permafrost...
David Dodwell | 17 Nov, 2023
...The wildfire increase is concentrated in the boreal forests of Siberia, Canada and Alaska encircling the Arctic – and is set to unleash the huge volumes of carbon locked in the Arctic permafrost for centuries. By 2030, wildfires are likely to increase by 14 per cent, according to the UN Environmental Programme (UNEP).
While most of these boreal forests are out of sight and mind for many people, they account for around 30 per cent of the world’s forests. They are underlain mostly by permafrost – and the trees and permafrost they are rooted in store between 30 and 40 per cent of all terrestrial carbon.
These findings coincide with research earlier this year that identified a lightning-wildfire “doom loop” – where rising global temperatures cause stronger storms, triggering more, and more powerful, “Promethean bolts” of lightning that are strikingly effective in sparking serious and sustained wildfires. Every 1 degree Celsius of warming could cause a 10 per cent increase in Promethian bolts.
These “hot lightning” bolts – scientifically described as “long continuing current lightning” and which can last for longer than 40 milliseconds each – are very good fire-starters. They could have caused up to 90 per cent of the 5,600 US wildfires analysed.
...it is the new patterns of wildfire generation, most of them far beyond the sight or influence of humans, that are the most recent cause of concern. Between 2002 and 2020, only 1.2 per cent of the global burned area was outside the tropics – yet this accounted for about 8.5 per cent of all carbon emissions from fires...
Almost all such fires are caused by lightning, not humans. Across Siberia’s boreal forests (also known as “taiga”), a series of blazes in 2003 alone accounted for 22 million hectares of scorched land; across Russia, almost 56 million hectares have been consumed by wildfires since 2001...
“Future increases in lightning ignitions threaten to destabilise vast carbon stores in extratropical forests, particularly as weather conditions become warmer, drier and overall more fire-prone in these regions,” said Dr Matthew Jones, one of the researchers on the team.
...The team predicts that the biggest increases in wildfire risk are concentrated in the western United States, southeast Australia, eastern Siberia and western Canada.
Europe will be particularly vulnerable around the Mediterranean, as has been clearly seen through the past summer’s wildfire season, among its worst.
https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3241826/more-lightning-more-wildfir...
----------------------------------------------------
"Promethean bolts"
An incendiary form of lightning may surge under climate change
Warming temperatures could drive up the rate of flashes, increasing the risk for more wildfires
Nikk Ogasa | February 28, 2023
...An analysis of satellite data suggests “hot lightning” — strikes that channel electrical charge for an extended period — may be more likely to set landscapes ablaze than more ephemeral flashes... Each 1 degree Celsius of warming could spur a 10 percent increase in the most incendiary of these Promethean bolts, boosting their flash rate to about four times per second by 2090 — up from nearly three times per second in 2011.
...Among all the forces of nature, lightning sets off the most blazes. Flashes that touch down amid minimal or no rainfall — known as dry lightning — are especially effective fire starters. These bolts have initiated some of the most destructive wildfires in recent years...
But more than parched circumstances can influence a blast’s ability to spark flames. Field observations and laboratory experiments have suggested the most enduring form of hot lightning — “long continuing current lightning”— may be especially combustible. These strikes channel current for more than 40 milliseconds. Some last longer than one-third of a second — the typical duration of a human eye blink...
https://www.sciencenews.org/article/hot-lightning-strike-wildfire-spark-risk-cli...
------------------------------------------------------
Francisco J. Pérez-Invernón etal. 2023. Variation of lightning-ignited wildfire patterns under climate change. Nature Communications volume 14, Article number: 739 (10 Feb 2023). Open access. https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-023-36500-5
Abstract
Lightning is the main precursor of natural wildfires and Long-Continuing-Current (LCC) lightning flashes are proposed to be the main igniters of lightning-ignited wildfires (LIW). Previous studies predict a change of the global occurrence rate and spatial pattern of total lightning. Nevertheless, the sensitivity of lightning-ignited wildfire occurrence to climate change is uncertain. Here, we investigate space-based measurements of LCC lightning associated with lightning ignitions and present LCC lightning projections under the Representative Concentration Pathway RCP6.0 for the 2090s by applying a recent LCC lightning parameterization based on the updraft strength in thunderstorms. We find a 41% global increase of the LCC lightning flash rate. Increases are largest in South America, the western coast of North America, Central America, Australia, Southern and Eastern Asia, and Europe, while only regional variations are found in northern polar forests, where fire risk can affect permafrost soil carbon release. These results show that lightning schemes including LCC lightning are needed to project the occurrence of lightning-ignited wildfires under climate change.
Climate-induced lightning is becoming more frequent and powerful, triggering more wildfires, particularly in Siberia, Canada and Alaska, and releasing the carbon locked in permafrost...
David Dodwell | 17 Nov, 2023
...The wildfire increase is concentrated in the boreal forests of Siberia, Canada and Alaska encircling the Arctic – and is set to unleash the huge volumes of carbon locked in the Arctic permafrost for centuries. By 2030, wildfires are likely to increase by 14 per cent, according to the UN Environmental Programme (UNEP).
While most of these boreal forests are out of sight and mind for many people, they account for around 30 per cent of the world’s forests. They are underlain mostly by permafrost – and the trees and permafrost they are rooted in store between 30 and 40 per cent of all terrestrial carbon.
These findings coincide with research earlier this year that identified a lightning-wildfire “doom loop” – where rising global temperatures cause stronger storms, triggering more, and more powerful, “Promethean bolts” of lightning that are strikingly effective in sparking serious and sustained wildfires. Every 1 degree Celsius of warming could cause a 10 per cent increase in Promethian bolts.
These “hot lightning” bolts – scientifically described as “long continuing current lightning” and which can last for longer than 40 milliseconds each – are very good fire-starters. They could have caused up to 90 per cent of the 5,600 US wildfires analysed.
...it is the new patterns of wildfire generation, most of them far beyond the sight or influence of humans, that are the most recent cause of concern. Between 2002 and 2020, only 1.2 per cent of the global burned area was outside the tropics – yet this accounted for about 8.5 per cent of all carbon emissions from fires...
Almost all such fires are caused by lightning, not humans. Across Siberia’s boreal forests (also known as “taiga”), a series of blazes in 2003 alone accounted for 22 million hectares of scorched land; across Russia, almost 56 million hectares have been consumed by wildfires since 2001...
“Future increases in lightning ignitions threaten to destabilise vast carbon stores in extratropical forests, particularly as weather conditions become warmer, drier and overall more fire-prone in these regions,” said Dr Matthew Jones, one of the researchers on the team.
...The team predicts that the biggest increases in wildfire risk are concentrated in the western United States, southeast Australia, eastern Siberia and western Canada.
Europe will be particularly vulnerable around the Mediterranean, as has been clearly seen through the past summer’s wildfire season, among its worst.
https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3241826/more-lightning-more-wildfir...
----------------------------------------------------
"Promethean bolts"
An incendiary form of lightning may surge under climate change
Warming temperatures could drive up the rate of flashes, increasing the risk for more wildfires
Nikk Ogasa | February 28, 2023
...An analysis of satellite data suggests “hot lightning” — strikes that channel electrical charge for an extended period — may be more likely to set landscapes ablaze than more ephemeral flashes... Each 1 degree Celsius of warming could spur a 10 percent increase in the most incendiary of these Promethean bolts, boosting their flash rate to about four times per second by 2090 — up from nearly three times per second in 2011.
...Among all the forces of nature, lightning sets off the most blazes. Flashes that touch down amid minimal or no rainfall — known as dry lightning — are especially effective fire starters. These bolts have initiated some of the most destructive wildfires in recent years...
But more than parched circumstances can influence a blast’s ability to spark flames. Field observations and laboratory experiments have suggested the most enduring form of hot lightning — “long continuing current lightning”— may be especially combustible. These strikes channel current for more than 40 milliseconds. Some last longer than one-third of a second — the typical duration of a human eye blink...
https://www.sciencenews.org/article/hot-lightning-strike-wildfire-spark-risk-cli...
------------------------------------------------------
Francisco J. Pérez-Invernón etal. 2023. Variation of lightning-ignited wildfire patterns under climate change. Nature Communications volume 14, Article number: 739 (10 Feb 2023). Open access. https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-023-36500-5
Abstract
Lightning is the main precursor of natural wildfires and Long-Continuing-Current (LCC) lightning flashes are proposed to be the main igniters of lightning-ignited wildfires (LIW). Previous studies predict a change of the global occurrence rate and spatial pattern of total lightning. Nevertheless, the sensitivity of lightning-ignited wildfire occurrence to climate change is uncertain. Here, we investigate space-based measurements of LCC lightning associated with lightning ignitions and present LCC lightning projections under the Representative Concentration Pathway RCP6.0 for the 2090s by applying a recent LCC lightning parameterization based on the updraft strength in thunderstorms. We find a 41% global increase of the LCC lightning flash rate. Increases are largest in South America, the western coast of North America, Central America, Australia, Southern and Eastern Asia, and Europe, while only regional variations are found in northern polar forests, where fire risk can affect permafrost soil carbon release. These results show that lightning schemes including LCC lightning are needed to project the occurrence of lightning-ignited wildfires under climate change.
5margd
My dad's favourite bird, which he called "whiskey jack" (an anglicized version of the Cree name "wîskicahk"): the “Canada jay”, Perisoreus canadensis.
The Naturalist and the Wonderful, Lovable, So Good, Very Bold Jay
Canada jays thrive in the cold. The life’s work of one biologist gives us clues as to how they’ll fare in a hotter world.
by Brian Payton | November 14, 2023
...(81-year-old ornithologist Dan Strickland) believes Boreal Canada jays are suffering from “cache-rot.” Basically, for every 10 °C rise in temperature, chemical reactions double—as does bacterial decay. It’s analogous to stocking the freezer with enough groceries to see your family through the winter only to have the power go out. It’s too early to tell how this population of Pacific Canada jays is faring, but Strickland has gathered evidence of a two-thirds decline in Canada jays in Algonquin Provincial Park. Declines have also been reported in Wisconsin, Michigan, New York, and Maine, as well as on the lower edges of the species’ range in Colorado and Arizona.
What’s clear is that as climate change continues to threaten their cold-storage system, Boreal Canada jay populations will eventually shift north.
“The trees are growing out into the tundra now, so they’ll be territorial gains at the top end. I don’t think the gains will be anywhere near as great as the losses in the south. But I think in 50 to 100 years from now, there still will be Canada jays.”
On Vancouver Island, Pacific Canada jays—the ones eating out of our hands—don’t have that option. “It’s to be predicted that, with warming temperatures, they’re going to be shoved farther and farther up the mountain,” Strickland says...
https://hakaimagazine.com/features/the-naturalist-and-the-wonderful-loveable-so-...
The Naturalist and the Wonderful, Lovable, So Good, Very Bold Jay
Canada jays thrive in the cold. The life’s work of one biologist gives us clues as to how they’ll fare in a hotter world.
by Brian Payton | November 14, 2023
...(81-year-old ornithologist Dan Strickland) believes Boreal Canada jays are suffering from “cache-rot.” Basically, for every 10 °C rise in temperature, chemical reactions double—as does bacterial decay. It’s analogous to stocking the freezer with enough groceries to see your family through the winter only to have the power go out. It’s too early to tell how this population of Pacific Canada jays is faring, but Strickland has gathered evidence of a two-thirds decline in Canada jays in Algonquin Provincial Park. Declines have also been reported in Wisconsin, Michigan, New York, and Maine, as well as on the lower edges of the species’ range in Colorado and Arizona.
What’s clear is that as climate change continues to threaten their cold-storage system, Boreal Canada jay populations will eventually shift north.
“The trees are growing out into the tundra now, so they’ll be territorial gains at the top end. I don’t think the gains will be anywhere near as great as the losses in the south. But I think in 50 to 100 years from now, there still will be Canada jays.”
On Vancouver Island, Pacific Canada jays—the ones eating out of our hands—don’t have that option. “It’s to be predicted that, with warming temperatures, they’re going to be shoved farther and farther up the mountain,” Strickland says...
https://hakaimagazine.com/features/the-naturalist-and-the-wonderful-loveable-so-...
6margd
DW News @dwnews | 7:38 PM · Nov 20, 2023:
A dangerous heat wave is sweeping across large swathes of Brazil, with wildfires burning widely in the Pantanal biome — the world's biggest tropical wetlands:
1:00 ( https://twitter.com/dwnews/status/1726761853320053075 )
A dangerous heat wave is sweeping across large swathes of Brazil, with wildfires burning widely in the Pantanal biome — the world's biggest tropical wetlands:
1:00 ( https://twitter.com/dwnews/status/1726761853320053075 )
7margd
Oil, gas, and coal exports are not counted when countries tally their greenhouse gas emissions under the Paris Agreement. This allows wealthy nations to report progress on emissions reduction goals, while shipping their fossil fuels — and the pollution they produce — overseas.
Bill McKibben • November 14, 2023
...{US} If the liquefied natural gas (LNG) buildout continues as planned, for instance, by 2030 U.S. LNG exports will be responsible for more greenhouse gases than every house, car, and factory in the European Union. The emissions, under the U.N. accounting system, will show up on the scorecards of the EU and the dozens of mostly Asian nations that will buy the gas.
...Norway has, arguably, done as good a job as any country on earth on moving past oil and gas; almost every new car in the country runs on electricity. But it’s planning one of the dozen biggest expansions in national oil and gas production, almost all of it for export. Canada and Australia fall into the same basket....
https://e360.yale.edu/features/fossil-fuel-export-emissions-climate-change
-----------------------------------
PLANET WRECKERS: HOW COUNTRIES’ OIL AND GAS EXTRACTION PLANS RISK LOCKING IN CLIMATE CHAOS (22 p)
Oil Change Intl | 22 Sept 2023
https://priceofoil.org/content/uploads/2023/09/OCI-Planet-Wreckers-Report.pdf
Bill McKibben • November 14, 2023
...{US} If the liquefied natural gas (LNG) buildout continues as planned, for instance, by 2030 U.S. LNG exports will be responsible for more greenhouse gases than every house, car, and factory in the European Union. The emissions, under the U.N. accounting system, will show up on the scorecards of the EU and the dozens of mostly Asian nations that will buy the gas.
...Norway has, arguably, done as good a job as any country on earth on moving past oil and gas; almost every new car in the country runs on electricity. But it’s planning one of the dozen biggest expansions in national oil and gas production, almost all of it for export. Canada and Australia fall into the same basket....
https://e360.yale.edu/features/fossil-fuel-export-emissions-climate-change
-----------------------------------
PLANET WRECKERS: HOW COUNTRIES’ OIL AND GAS EXTRACTION PLANS RISK LOCKING IN CLIMATE CHAOS (22 p)
Oil Change Intl | 22 Sept 2023
https://priceofoil.org/content/uploads/2023/09/OCI-Planet-Wreckers-Report.pdf
8margd
DW News @dwnews | 5:31 AM · Nov 24, 2023:
More than 500 emergency responders, supported by aircraft, are battling uncontrolled bushfires on the outskirts of Perth, Western Australia's capital:
0:37 ( https://twitter.com/dwnews/status/1727998390091272323 )
More than 500 emergency responders, supported by aircraft, are battling uncontrolled bushfires on the outskirts of Perth, Western Australia's capital:
0:37 ( https://twitter.com/dwnews/status/1727998390091272323 )
9margd
Australia: More than 100 climate activists arrested
DW | 26 Nov 2023
The protesters were blocking shipping traffic at the Port of Newcastle over the weekend, challenging the nation's dependence on fossil fuel exports.
Five minors and a 97-year-old reverend were among the more than 100 climate activists arrested in Australia on Monday after their protest continued past the allotted deadline.
The demonstrators, using a fleet of kayaks, were staging a floating blockade of shipping traffic at Australia's largest coal port, the Port of Newcastle, over the weekend.
The protest aimed to challenge the nation's dependence on fossil fuel exports, according to the organizer Rising Tide.
Authorities agreed to let the protest run for 30 hours, but made arrests after activists refused to leave the water once the deadline expired...
https://www.dw.com/en/australia-more-than-100-climate-activists-arrested-after-p...
DW | 26 Nov 2023
The protesters were blocking shipping traffic at the Port of Newcastle over the weekend, challenging the nation's dependence on fossil fuel exports.
Five minors and a 97-year-old reverend were among the more than 100 climate activists arrested in Australia on Monday after their protest continued past the allotted deadline.
The demonstrators, using a fleet of kayaks, were staging a floating blockade of shipping traffic at Australia's largest coal port, the Port of Newcastle, over the weekend.
The protest aimed to challenge the nation's dependence on fossil fuel exports, according to the organizer Rising Tide.
Authorities agreed to let the protest run for 30 hours, but made arrests after activists refused to leave the water once the deadline expired...
https://www.dw.com/en/australia-more-than-100-climate-activists-arrested-after-p...
10margd
In spite of lung illness, "Pope Francis...confirmed his trip to Dubai next weekend for the climate conference (COP28)", bless him.
https://www.dw.com/en/pope-francis-suffers-lung-inflammation-as-health-fears-gro...
https://www.dw.com/en/pope-francis-suffers-lung-inflammation-as-health-fears-gro...
11margd
Satire--or is it?
The Goose @The_Goose_Media | 12:41 PM · Nov 28, 2023:
Satire and ideas for a better Canadian 🇨🇦 future.
LEAKED Big Oil video is surprisingly honest about sabotaging the latest climate summit
5:36 ( https://twitter.com/The_Goose_Media/status/1729556083574726659 )
The Goose @The_Goose_Media | 12:41 PM · Nov 28, 2023:
Satire and ideas for a better Canadian 🇨🇦 future.
LEAKED Big Oil video is surprisingly honest about sabotaging the latest climate summit
5:36 ( https://twitter.com/The_Goose_Media/status/1729556083574726659 )
12margd
ETA: By the map, Russian Siberia, like global South, lacks weather stations.
Without Warning: A Lack of Weather Stations Is Costing African Lives
Friederike Otto | October 31, 2023
A scarcity of weather stations in Africa and elsewhere in the Global South means millions of people cannot be alerted about impending extreme weather events. What’s needed is funding for equipment and early warning systems, which will reduce damage and save lives...
...The U.S. and E.U. combined have 636 weather radar stations for a population of 1.1 billion, while Africa, with 1.2 billion people, has just 37...
...Early warnings of an impending disaster give people a chance to seek shelter or evacuate. Compare 2021’s Hurricane Ida in the U.S. with 2019’s Tropical Cyclone Idai in East Africa: Both were Category 4 storms, but Ida killed fewer than 100 people, while Idai killed more than 1,000. Early warning was a key difference between the two disasters. “U.S. residents were alerted to evacuate before Hurricane Ida made landfall, while Cyclone Idai caught African populations by surprise,” scientists wrote in Nature...
https://e360.yale.edu/features/africa-weather-stations-climate-change
Without Warning: A Lack of Weather Stations Is Costing African Lives
Friederike Otto | October 31, 2023
A scarcity of weather stations in Africa and elsewhere in the Global South means millions of people cannot be alerted about impending extreme weather events. What’s needed is funding for equipment and early warning systems, which will reduce damage and save lives...
...The U.S. and E.U. combined have 636 weather radar stations for a population of 1.1 billion, while Africa, with 1.2 billion people, has just 37...
...Early warnings of an impending disaster give people a chance to seek shelter or evacuate. Compare 2021’s Hurricane Ida in the U.S. with 2019’s Tropical Cyclone Idai in East Africa: Both were Category 4 storms, but Ida killed fewer than 100 people, while Idai killed more than 1,000. Early warning was a key difference between the two disasters. “U.S. residents were alerted to evacuate before Hurricane Ida made landfall, while Cyclone Idai caught African populations by surprise,” scientists wrote in Nature...
https://e360.yale.edu/features/africa-weather-stations-climate-change
13margd
Coal, forest fires... Our uninsulated summer place was often downwind of Quebec's 2023 wildfires, which plluted NYC and DC. Amazing how quickly our (DIY) Corsi-Rosenthal air filter clogged...we couldn't vacuum the intrusive dust (i.e., particulate matter) out of the MERV13 filters...
Air pollution linked to almost a million stillbirths a year
First global analysis follows discovery of toxic pollution particles in lungs and brains of foetuses
Damian Carrington | 29 Nov 2022
...The research, published in Nature Communications*, used data on stillbirths and air pollution between 1998 and 2016 from 54 low- and middle-income countries (LMIC), including Pakistan, India and Nigeria. This was used to estimate the number of stillbirths attributable to PM2.5 exposure across the 137 LMIC countries, taking into account the fact that the impact of dirty air was greater on older mothers.
Virtually all the mothers in the study were exposed to PM2.5 levels above the WHO’s current guideline level of 5 micrograms per cubic metre (μg/m3). There were 2.09 million stillbirths recorded in the studied countries in 2015, and 950,000 of them (45%) were attributable to exposure above the 5 μg/m3 level, the study estimated.
...The proportion of stillbirths attributed to PM2.5 pollution was particularly high in Pakistan, India, Nigeria and China...
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2022/nov/29/air-pollution-million-stillb...
* Tao Xue et al. 2023. Estimation of stillbirths attributable to ambient fine particles in 137 countries. Nature Communications volume 13, Article number: 6950 (29 Nov 2022) https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-022-34250-4
Air pollution linked to almost a million stillbirths a year
First global analysis follows discovery of toxic pollution particles in lungs and brains of foetuses
Damian Carrington | 29 Nov 2022
...The research, published in Nature Communications*, used data on stillbirths and air pollution between 1998 and 2016 from 54 low- and middle-income countries (LMIC), including Pakistan, India and Nigeria. This was used to estimate the number of stillbirths attributable to PM2.5 exposure across the 137 LMIC countries, taking into account the fact that the impact of dirty air was greater on older mothers.
Virtually all the mothers in the study were exposed to PM2.5 levels above the WHO’s current guideline level of 5 micrograms per cubic metre (μg/m3). There were 2.09 million stillbirths recorded in the studied countries in 2015, and 950,000 of them (45%) were attributable to exposure above the 5 μg/m3 level, the study estimated.
...The proportion of stillbirths attributed to PM2.5 pollution was particularly high in Pakistan, India, Nigeria and China...
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2022/nov/29/air-pollution-million-stillb...
* Tao Xue et al. 2023. Estimation of stillbirths attributable to ambient fine particles in 137 countries. Nature Communications volume 13, Article number: 6950 (29 Nov 2022) https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-022-34250-4
14margd
Thierry Goose @ThierryGooseBC | 8:47 PM · Dec 1, 2023:
Worldwide weather news from Vancouver, BC 🇨🇦 Amateur climatologist. Free diver 🤿, runner/marathoner, hiker, underwater hockey player, traveller, bear lover.
Incredible warmth in #Nunavut (territory in extreme north of Canada} with many *monthly* records destroyed today.
🌡️5.4°C Grise Fiord {31°C above average}
🌡️2.3°C Arctic Bay
🌡️1.7°C Pond Inlet
🌡️-1.3°C Resolute
No monthly records below but very high temperatures.
🌡️-0.1°C Sanirajak/Hall Beach
🌡️-3.0°C Alert ...
Patrick Duplessis and 9 others:
Map Arctic 2m temp ( https://twitter.com/ThierryGooseBC/status/1730765494947655777/photo/1 )
Table Grise Fiord ( https://twitter.com/ThierryGooseBC/status/1730765494947655777/photo/2 )
Worldwide weather news from Vancouver, BC 🇨🇦 Amateur climatologist. Free diver 🤿, runner/marathoner, hiker, underwater hockey player, traveller, bear lover.
Incredible warmth in #Nunavut (territory in extreme north of Canada} with many *monthly* records destroyed today.
🌡️5.4°C Grise Fiord {31°C above average}
🌡️2.3°C Arctic Bay
🌡️1.7°C Pond Inlet
🌡️-1.3°C Resolute
No monthly records below but very high temperatures.
🌡️-0.1°C Sanirajak/Hall Beach
🌡️-3.0°C Alert ...
Patrick Duplessis and 9 others:
Map Arctic 2m temp ( https://twitter.com/ThierryGooseBC/status/1730765494947655777/photo/1 )
Table Grise Fiord ( https://twitter.com/ThierryGooseBC/status/1730765494947655777/photo/2 )
15margd
The Climate Summit Is a Sick Joke. You Should Be Angry and Afraid | Opinion
Peter Kalmus, NASA Climate Scientist | Dec 01, 2023
...We need a global, international summit process that works because global heating is a global problem. When that international summit system has been corrupted by the fossil fuel industry, which is led by some of the most evil people in human history, this is straight up how we lose our gorgeous, fragile, civilization-supporting planet. Instead of being in charge, these executives and lobbyists should be behind bars. At the very least, the UN should ban them from climate summits.
As a climate scientist, I am appalled, frustrated, disgusted. I am losing my faith in humanity. Everything here should be obvious to all. To have to write it down, again and again, is deeply painful. At the end of the day, if you take a moment to think about it, nothing is more important than a habitable planet. Everything else—all of humanity's hopes and dreams and aspirations, all our happiness and love and growth—depends on it.
https://www.newsweek.com/climate-summit-sick-joke-you-should-angry-afraid-opinio...
Peter Kalmus, NASA Climate Scientist | Dec 01, 2023
...We need a global, international summit process that works because global heating is a global problem. When that international summit system has been corrupted by the fossil fuel industry, which is led by some of the most evil people in human history, this is straight up how we lose our gorgeous, fragile, civilization-supporting planet. Instead of being in charge, these executives and lobbyists should be behind bars. At the very least, the UN should ban them from climate summits.
As a climate scientist, I am appalled, frustrated, disgusted. I am losing my faith in humanity. Everything here should be obvious to all. To have to write it down, again and again, is deeply painful. At the end of the day, if you take a moment to think about it, nothing is more important than a habitable planet. Everything else—all of humanity's hopes and dreams and aspirations, all our happiness and love and growth—depends on it.
https://www.newsweek.com/climate-summit-sick-joke-you-should-angry-afraid-opinio...
162wonderY
>15 margd: And the host nation, United Arab Emirates, is using the get-together to broker oil and gas deals, I heard.
17Molly3028
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/planet-tipping-points-pose-unprecedented-th...
Planet tipping points pose 'unprecedented' threat to humanity: report
Humanity faces an "unprecedented" risk from tipping points that could unleash a domino effect of irreversible catastrophes across the planet, researchers warned Wednesday.
Planet tipping points pose 'unprecedented' threat to humanity: report
Humanity faces an "unprecedented" risk from tipping points that could unleash a domino effect of irreversible catastrophes across the planet, researchers warned Wednesday.
18margd
Difficulty in getting mortgages and property insurance probably drive migration, as well as fear of being flooded:
More Than 3 Million Americans Are Already Climate Migrants, Researchers Say
Leslie Kaufman | December 18, 2023
...In all, First Street finds, 3.2 million Americans moved away from high-flood-risk areas between 2000 and 2020. The full extent of the migration has been hidden, however, since most people didn’t move far.
...found that when between 5% to 10% of properties in a census block are at risk of flooding, there is a tipping point, and people begin moving out even if there are other attractive amenities, such as a view of the coast...
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-12-17/canada-to-announce-2035-all-e...
More Than 3 Million Americans Are Already Climate Migrants, Researchers Say
Leslie Kaufman | December 18, 2023
...In all, First Street finds, 3.2 million Americans moved away from high-flood-risk areas between 2000 and 2020. The full extent of the migration has been hidden, however, since most people didn’t move far.
...found that when between 5% to 10% of properties in a census block are at risk of flooding, there is a tipping point, and people begin moving out even if there are other attractive amenities, such as a view of the coast...
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-12-17/canada-to-announce-2035-all-e...
19margd
A New 66 Million-Year History of Carbon Dioxide Offers Little Comfort for Today
A Massive Study Sharpens the Outlook on Greenhouse Gases and Climate
by Kevin Krajick | December 7, 2023
A massive new review of ancient atmospheric carbon-dioxide levels and corresponding temperatures lays out a daunting picture of where the Earth’s climate may be headed. The study covers geologic records spanning the past 66 million years, putting present-day concentrations into context with deep time. Among other things, it indicates that the last time atmospheric carbon dioxide consistently reached today’s human-driven levels was 14 million years ago—much longer ago than some existing assessments indicate. It asserts that long-term climate is highly sensitive to greenhouse gas, with cascading effects that may evolve over many millennia.
The study was assembled over seven years by a consortium of more than 80 researchers from 16 nations...
... a doubling of CO2 is predicted to warm the planet a whopping 5 to 8 degrees C.
...there are sluggish, cascading effects that will last for thousands of years...
https://news.climate.columbia.edu/2023/12/07/a-new-66-million-year-history-of-ca...
---------------------------------------------------
The Cenozoic CO2 Proxy Integration Project (CenCO2PIP) Consortium 2023. Toward a Cenozoic history of atmospheric CO2. Science 8 Dec Vol 382, Issue 6675
DOI: 10.1126/science.adi5177 https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/science.adi5177
A Massive Study Sharpens the Outlook on Greenhouse Gases and Climate
by Kevin Krajick | December 7, 2023
A massive new review of ancient atmospheric carbon-dioxide levels and corresponding temperatures lays out a daunting picture of where the Earth’s climate may be headed. The study covers geologic records spanning the past 66 million years, putting present-day concentrations into context with deep time. Among other things, it indicates that the last time atmospheric carbon dioxide consistently reached today’s human-driven levels was 14 million years ago—much longer ago than some existing assessments indicate. It asserts that long-term climate is highly sensitive to greenhouse gas, with cascading effects that may evolve over many millennia.
The study was assembled over seven years by a consortium of more than 80 researchers from 16 nations...
... a doubling of CO2 is predicted to warm the planet a whopping 5 to 8 degrees C.
...there are sluggish, cascading effects that will last for thousands of years...
https://news.climate.columbia.edu/2023/12/07/a-new-66-million-year-history-of-ca...
---------------------------------------------------
The Cenozoic CO2 Proxy Integration Project (CenCO2PIP) Consortium 2023. Toward a Cenozoic history of atmospheric CO2. Science 8 Dec Vol 382, Issue 6675
DOI: 10.1126/science.adi5177 https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/science.adi5177
20margd
Surge in extreme forest fires fuels global emissions
Xiaoying You | 20 December 2023
Climate change and human activities have led to more frequent and intense forest blazes over the past two decades.
...On average, the area of forest burnt by fires between 2001 and 2022 was 11 times the size of the forests planted by humans during that period...
https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-023-04033-y
Xiaoying You | 20 December 2023
Climate change and human activities have led to more frequent and intense forest blazes over the past two decades.
...On average, the area of forest burnt by fires between 2001 and 2022 was 11 times the size of the forests planted by humans during that period...
https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-023-04033-y
21margd
Now about those cars, cows, methane flaring, deforestation...and accomplishments in renewable electricity generation in some countries (incl. Canada & US) occur with backdrop of significant fossil fuel exports...
Britain likely to generate more electricity from wind, solar and hydro than fossil fuels for the first year ever in 2023
Grant Wilson, Joseph Day, Katarina Pegg | December 22, 2023
...2023 could be the first year where renewable generation exceeds domestic electricity demand (homes comprise 36% of total electrical demand). This means the annual electricity generated by Britain's wind turbines, solar panels and hydro resource will now be greater than that consumed over the year by its 29 million households.
...in 2024, ... another 1.7 GW of offshore wind capacity will begin generating and Britain's last coal-fired power station is scheduled to cease producing electricity altogether...
https://techxplore.com/news/2023-12-britain-generate-electricity-solar-hydro.htm...
------------------------------------------------
TABLE: 45 Countries Whose Electricity Generation in 2021 was 50-100 Wind-Water-Solar (WWS) (Including 10 With 97.3-100 WWS Generation) and Two States With 97.2-120 of Their Electricity Consumed From WWS
By Mark Z. Jacobson
{ Wind-water-solar % electricity generation
25.97% World
26.90% China
19.27% India
19.18% Russia
18.91% U.S.
17.84% Japan }
https://web.stanford.edu/group/efmh/jacobson/WWSBook/Countries100Pct.pdf
Britain likely to generate more electricity from wind, solar and hydro than fossil fuels for the first year ever in 2023
Grant Wilson, Joseph Day, Katarina Pegg | December 22, 2023
...2023 could be the first year where renewable generation exceeds domestic electricity demand (homes comprise 36% of total electrical demand). This means the annual electricity generated by Britain's wind turbines, solar panels and hydro resource will now be greater than that consumed over the year by its 29 million households.
...in 2024, ... another 1.7 GW of offshore wind capacity will begin generating and Britain's last coal-fired power station is scheduled to cease producing electricity altogether...
https://techxplore.com/news/2023-12-britain-generate-electricity-solar-hydro.htm...
------------------------------------------------
TABLE: 45 Countries Whose Electricity Generation in 2021 was 50-100 Wind-Water-Solar (WWS) (Including 10 With 97.3-100 WWS Generation) and Two States With 97.2-120 of Their Electricity Consumed From WWS
By Mark Z. Jacobson
{ Wind-water-solar % electricity generation
25.97% World
26.90% China
19.27% India
19.18% Russia
18.91% U.S.
17.84% Japan }
https://web.stanford.edu/group/efmh/jacobson/WWSBook/Countries100Pct.pdf
22margd
As Africa Loses Forest, Its Small Farmers Are Bringing Back Trees
Fred Pearce • June 13, 2023
The loss of forests across Africa has long been documented. But recent studies show that small farmers from Senegal to Ethiopia to Malawi are allowing trees to regenerate on their lands, resulting in improved crop yields, productive fruit harvests, and a boost for carbon storage...
https://e360.yale.edu/features/africa-tree-cover-farmer-managed-natural-regenera...
Fred Pearce • June 13, 2023
The loss of forests across Africa has long been documented. But recent studies show that small farmers from Senegal to Ethiopia to Malawi are allowing trees to regenerate on their lands, resulting in improved crop yields, productive fruit harvests, and a boost for carbon storage...
https://e360.yale.edu/features/africa-tree-cover-farmer-managed-natural-regenera...
23margd
GIF of gorgeous, dynamic Earth from 22,000 miles (NOAA Satellites):
https://twitter.com/i/status/1740825453768974734
{https://www.nesdis.noaa.gov/real-time-imagery/imagery-collections}
https://twitter.com/i/status/1740825453768974734
{https://www.nesdis.noaa.gov/real-time-imagery/imagery-collections}
24margd
Next Year Likely to Surpass 2023 as the Hottest Ever
Yale Environment 360 | December 28, 2023
...According to the World Meteorological Organization, the first 10 months of this year measured 1.40 degrees C warmer than the preindustrial baseline, a product of both human-caused warming and, to a lesser extent, the onset of El Niño, when warm waters pool in the eastern Pacific Ocean. The previous hottest year, in 2016, also coincided with an El Niño.
Next year is likely to surpass 2023 as the hottest ever, according to the U.K. Met Office, which projects that 2024 will likely measure 1.46 degrees C warmer than preindustrial times, but could conclude up to 1.58 degrees C warmer. The Paris Agreement aims to keep long-term warming below 1.5 degrees C.
“It’s important to recognize that a temporary exceedance of 1.5 degrees C won’t mean a breach of the Paris Agreement,” said Adam Scaife, a climate scientist with the Met Office. “But the first year above 1.5 degrees C would certainly be a milestone in climate history.”
https://e360.yale.edu/digest/2024-hottest-year
Yale Environment 360 | December 28, 2023
...According to the World Meteorological Organization, the first 10 months of this year measured 1.40 degrees C warmer than the preindustrial baseline, a product of both human-caused warming and, to a lesser extent, the onset of El Niño, when warm waters pool in the eastern Pacific Ocean. The previous hottest year, in 2016, also coincided with an El Niño.
Next year is likely to surpass 2023 as the hottest ever, according to the U.K. Met Office, which projects that 2024 will likely measure 1.46 degrees C warmer than preindustrial times, but could conclude up to 1.58 degrees C warmer. The Paris Agreement aims to keep long-term warming below 1.5 degrees C.
“It’s important to recognize that a temporary exceedance of 1.5 degrees C won’t mean a breach of the Paris Agreement,” said Adam Scaife, a climate scientist with the Met Office. “But the first year above 1.5 degrees C would certainly be a milestone in climate history.”
https://e360.yale.edu/digest/2024-hottest-year
25margd
Red alert in Antarctica: the year rapid, dramatic change hit climate scientists like a ‘punch in the guts’
Adam Morton and Graham Readfearn | 30 Dec 2023
Study after study showed the breakdown of climate systems taking place much earlier than foreseen, with potentially catastrophic results
...meltwater from the continent’s ice sheets could dramatically slow down the Southern Ocean overturning circulation, a deep ocean current, by 2050 if greenhouse gas emissions continued at their current level...the circulation, which influences global weather patterns and ocean temperatures and nutrient levels, had already slowed by about 30% since the 1990s. {The (Southern Ocean) overturning circulation originates in the cold and dense waters more than 4,000 metres down off the Antarctic continental shelf. It spreads to ocean basins globally, bringing oxygen to the depths and nutrients to the surface. Australian scientists found freshwater from melting Antarctic glacial ice was already reducing the water density and slowing the circulation.}
...accelerated melting of ice shelves extended over the Amundsen Sea in west Antarctica is locked in and beyond human control for the rest of this century even if emissions are significantly reduced...
... a permanent fall in sea ice is likely to accelerate ocean warming, as dark water absorbs more heat than ice and amplify the rate of global sea level rise by removing a buffer protecting the continent’s ice shelves...
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/dec/31/red-alert-in-antarctica-the-year-r...
Adam Morton and Graham Readfearn | 30 Dec 2023
Study after study showed the breakdown of climate systems taking place much earlier than foreseen, with potentially catastrophic results
...meltwater from the continent’s ice sheets could dramatically slow down the Southern Ocean overturning circulation, a deep ocean current, by 2050 if greenhouse gas emissions continued at their current level...the circulation, which influences global weather patterns and ocean temperatures and nutrient levels, had already slowed by about 30% since the 1990s. {The (Southern Ocean) overturning circulation originates in the cold and dense waters more than 4,000 metres down off the Antarctic continental shelf. It spreads to ocean basins globally, bringing oxygen to the depths and nutrients to the surface. Australian scientists found freshwater from melting Antarctic glacial ice was already reducing the water density and slowing the circulation.}
...accelerated melting of ice shelves extended over the Amundsen Sea in west Antarctica is locked in and beyond human control for the rest of this century even if emissions are significantly reduced...
... a permanent fall in sea ice is likely to accelerate ocean warming, as dark water absorbs more heat than ice and amplify the rate of global sea level rise by removing a buffer protecting the continent’s ice shelves...
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/dec/31/red-alert-in-antarctica-the-year-r...
26margd
Record High: Dispatches from the era of extreme heat
Grist
EDITOR’S NOTE
As carbon emissions rise, communities across the globe are dealing with increasingly severe and frequent bouts of extreme temperatures. Scientists have observed an eightfold increase in record-breaking hot months over the past decade, and at any given time, extreme heat is now affecting about one-tenth of the Earth’s land area. Some 8 million Americans were exposed to “extreme danger” temperatures last year alone, defined by the National Weather Service as a heat index of more than 125 degrees Fahrenheit. By 2053, that number is expected to rise to 107 million...
https://grist.org/extreme-heat/record-high/
Grist
EDITOR’S NOTE
As carbon emissions rise, communities across the globe are dealing with increasingly severe and frequent bouts of extreme temperatures. Scientists have observed an eightfold increase in record-breaking hot months over the past decade, and at any given time, extreme heat is now affecting about one-tenth of the Earth’s land area. Some 8 million Americans were exposed to “extreme danger” temperatures last year alone, defined by the National Weather Service as a heat index of more than 125 degrees Fahrenheit. By 2053, that number is expected to rise to 107 million...
https://grist.org/extreme-heat/record-high/
27margd
Octopus DNA reveals that the West Antarctic Ice Sheet collapsed during the Last Interglacial ~129,000 to 116,000 years ago—when temperatures were only about 1°C warmer than preindustrial levels...
Editor’s summary. How the West Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS) responded to warmer climates in the geologic past has obvious relevance to our understanding of what its future could be as global temperatures rise due to human activities. Using genetic analyses of a type of circum-Antarctic octopus, Pareledone turqueti, Lau et al. showed that the WAIS collapsed completely during the last interglacial period, when global sea levels were 5 to 10 meters higher than today and global average temperatures were only about 1°C warmer (see the Perspective by Dutton and DeConto). The implication of this finding is that major WAIS collapse and the consequent rise in sea level could be caused even by the minimal temperature rises projected for stringent climate change mitigation. —H. Jesse Smith
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
Sally C. Y. Lau et al. 2023. Genomic evidence for West Antarctic Ice Sheet collapse during the Last Interglacial. Science, 21 Dec 2023, Vol 382, Issue 6677, pp. 1384-1389. DOI: 10.1126/science.ade0664 https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/science.ade0664
A. Dutton and R. M. DeConto 2023. Genetic insight on ice sheet history: Octopus DNA reveals timing of the most recent collapse of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet (Perspective). Science, 21 Dec 2023, Vol 382, Issue 6677. pp. 1356-1357.
DOI: 10.1126/science.adm6957 https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/science.adm6957
Editor’s summary. How the West Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS) responded to warmer climates in the geologic past has obvious relevance to our understanding of what its future could be as global temperatures rise due to human activities. Using genetic analyses of a type of circum-Antarctic octopus, Pareledone turqueti, Lau et al. showed that the WAIS collapsed completely during the last interglacial period, when global sea levels were 5 to 10 meters higher than today and global average temperatures were only about 1°C warmer (see the Perspective by Dutton and DeConto). The implication of this finding is that major WAIS collapse and the consequent rise in sea level could be caused even by the minimal temperature rises projected for stringent climate change mitigation. —H. Jesse Smith
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
Sally C. Y. Lau et al. 2023. Genomic evidence for West Antarctic Ice Sheet collapse during the Last Interglacial. Science, 21 Dec 2023, Vol 382, Issue 6677, pp. 1384-1389. DOI: 10.1126/science.ade0664 https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/science.ade0664
A. Dutton and R. M. DeConto 2023. Genetic insight on ice sheet history: Octopus DNA reveals timing of the most recent collapse of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet (Perspective). Science, 21 Dec 2023, Vol 382, Issue 6677. pp. 1356-1357.
DOI: 10.1126/science.adm6957 https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/science.adm6957
28margd
I thought most of us were going to die from the climate crisis. I was wrong
Hannah Ritchie | 2 Jan 2024
...To tackle climate change, we have to accept two things: climate change is happening and human emissions of greenhouse gases are responsible. We simply don’t have time to argue about the existence of climate change. By “we”, I mean all of us, collectively. The time for debating is over. We need to move past it to the question of what we’re going to do about it.
...In 2012, the world topped out at 4.9 tonnes per person. Since then, per capita emissions have been slowly falling. Nowhere near fast enough, but falling nonetheless. This is a signal that the peak in our total (not per capita) CO2 emissions is coming. This is the case with any metric in a world with an increasing population. Per capita measures will peak first, then it’s a tug-of-war over whether our impacts per person will fall more quickly than the population is growing.
We are very close. Emissions increased rapidly in the 1960s and 70s, then again in the 1990s and early 2000s. But in recent years, this growth has slowed down a lot. Emissions barely increased at all from 2018 to 2019. And they actually fell in 2020 as a result of the Covid-19 pandemic. I’m optimistic we can peak global emissions in the 2020s.
...my carbon footprint is less than half that of my grandparents’ when they were my age. When my grandparents were in their 20s, the average person in the UK emitted 11 tonnes of CO2 per year. We now emit less than five tonnes....
Technology has made that possible. In 1900, nearly all of the UK’s energy came from coal and, by 1950, it was still supplying more than 90%. Now coal supplies less than 2% of our electricity, and the government has pledged to phase it out completely by 2025. Coal is now almost dead in its birthplace, where it all began. It has been replaced with other sources of energy: gas, then nuclear, and now a transition to wind, solar and other renewable sources.
That means that, for every unit of energy we consume, we emit much less CO2. But that’s not the only change. We also use much less energy overall. Per capita energy use has fallen by around 25% since the 1960s. Year after year, more efficient gadgets have come into our lives. ...
These massive strides in technology mean that we use much less energy than we did in the past, despite appearing to lead much more extravagant, energy-intensive lifestyles. The notion that we need to be frugal to live a low-carbon life is simply wrong. In the UK, we now emit about the same as someone in the 1850s. I emit the same as my great-great-great-grandparents. And I have a much, much higher standard of living.
...We have a habit of underestimating how quickly things can change. ...
In just a decade between 2009 and 2019, solar photovoltaic and wind energy went from the most to the least expensive source. The price of electricity from solar has declined by 89%, and the price of onshore wind has declined by 70%. They are now cheaper than coal. Leaders no longer have to make the difficult choice between climate action and providing energy for their people. The low-carbon choice has suddenly become the economic one. It’s staggering how quickly this change has happened.
Poorer countries do not have to follow the fossil fuel-heavy and unsustainable trajectories that rich countries did. They can leapfrog the centuries-long journey that we’ve taken. And they don’t have to sacrifice human wellbeing or access to energy. In fact, by adopting these technologies they can ensure that even more people have access to affordable energy.
...{This is an edited extract from Not the End of the World: How We Can Be the First Generation to Build a Sustainable Planet by Hannah Ritchie, which will be published by Chatto & Windus on 11 January (£22). }
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2024/jan/02/hannah-ritchie-not-the-end-o...
Hannah Ritchie | 2 Jan 2024
...To tackle climate change, we have to accept two things: climate change is happening and human emissions of greenhouse gases are responsible. We simply don’t have time to argue about the existence of climate change. By “we”, I mean all of us, collectively. The time for debating is over. We need to move past it to the question of what we’re going to do about it.
...In 2012, the world topped out at 4.9 tonnes per person. Since then, per capita emissions have been slowly falling. Nowhere near fast enough, but falling nonetheless. This is a signal that the peak in our total (not per capita) CO2 emissions is coming. This is the case with any metric in a world with an increasing population. Per capita measures will peak first, then it’s a tug-of-war over whether our impacts per person will fall more quickly than the population is growing.
We are very close. Emissions increased rapidly in the 1960s and 70s, then again in the 1990s and early 2000s. But in recent years, this growth has slowed down a lot. Emissions barely increased at all from 2018 to 2019. And they actually fell in 2020 as a result of the Covid-19 pandemic. I’m optimistic we can peak global emissions in the 2020s.
...my carbon footprint is less than half that of my grandparents’ when they were my age. When my grandparents were in their 20s, the average person in the UK emitted 11 tonnes of CO2 per year. We now emit less than five tonnes....
Technology has made that possible. In 1900, nearly all of the UK’s energy came from coal and, by 1950, it was still supplying more than 90%. Now coal supplies less than 2% of our electricity, and the government has pledged to phase it out completely by 2025. Coal is now almost dead in its birthplace, where it all began. It has been replaced with other sources of energy: gas, then nuclear, and now a transition to wind, solar and other renewable sources.
That means that, for every unit of energy we consume, we emit much less CO2. But that’s not the only change. We also use much less energy overall. Per capita energy use has fallen by around 25% since the 1960s. Year after year, more efficient gadgets have come into our lives. ...
These massive strides in technology mean that we use much less energy than we did in the past, despite appearing to lead much more extravagant, energy-intensive lifestyles. The notion that we need to be frugal to live a low-carbon life is simply wrong. In the UK, we now emit about the same as someone in the 1850s. I emit the same as my great-great-great-grandparents. And I have a much, much higher standard of living.
...We have a habit of underestimating how quickly things can change. ...
In just a decade between 2009 and 2019, solar photovoltaic and wind energy went from the most to the least expensive source. The price of electricity from solar has declined by 89%, and the price of onshore wind has declined by 70%. They are now cheaper than coal. Leaders no longer have to make the difficult choice between climate action and providing energy for their people. The low-carbon choice has suddenly become the economic one. It’s staggering how quickly this change has happened.
Poorer countries do not have to follow the fossil fuel-heavy and unsustainable trajectories that rich countries did. They can leapfrog the centuries-long journey that we’ve taken. And they don’t have to sacrifice human wellbeing or access to energy. In fact, by adopting these technologies they can ensure that even more people have access to affordable energy.
...{This is an edited extract from Not the End of the World: How We Can Be the First Generation to Build a Sustainable Planet by Hannah Ritchie, which will be published by Chatto & Windus on 11 January (£22). }
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2024/jan/02/hannah-ritchie-not-the-end-o...
29margd
Germany 2023 emissions lowest in 70 years: study
DW | Jan 4 2024
...Germany emitted 673 million tons of greenhouse gasses last year — 73 million tons fewer than in 2022. The figure is the lowest "since the 1950s"...
The decline in emissions was partially driven by an increase in domestic renewable energy production. Last year, electricity generation from renewable sources such as wind and solar was more than 50% of the total for the first time.
Another factor was a significant drop in the production of coal-fired electricity, which fell to its lowest levels since the 1960s. The think tank estimated that the cut in coal use accounted for a reduction of 46 million tons in CO2 emissions.
Germany aims to phase out coal by 2038, and Economy Minister Robert Habeck has even pushed for an earlier exit by 2030. Western German states are in agreement over the earlier date, though the eastern brown coal belt has shown resistance.
Emissions were also impacted by energy-intensive manufacturers scaling down production as a result of spiking gas prices following a shift away from Russian piped gas supply to liquefied natural gas imports.
Industrial emissions fell by 20 million tons...
...While the figures may indicate progress, the industry emissions reduction did not reflect a "sustainable development," cautioned {energy think tank Agora director Simon Müller}. "The crisis-related slump in production weakens the German economy. If emissions are subsequently relocated abroad, then nothing has been achieved for the climate"...
https://www.dw.com/en/germany-2023-emissions-lowest-in-70-years-study/a-67887578
DW | Jan 4 2024
...Germany emitted 673 million tons of greenhouse gasses last year — 73 million tons fewer than in 2022. The figure is the lowest "since the 1950s"...
The decline in emissions was partially driven by an increase in domestic renewable energy production. Last year, electricity generation from renewable sources such as wind and solar was more than 50% of the total for the first time.
Another factor was a significant drop in the production of coal-fired electricity, which fell to its lowest levels since the 1960s. The think tank estimated that the cut in coal use accounted for a reduction of 46 million tons in CO2 emissions.
Germany aims to phase out coal by 2038, and Economy Minister Robert Habeck has even pushed for an earlier exit by 2030. Western German states are in agreement over the earlier date, though the eastern brown coal belt has shown resistance.
Emissions were also impacted by energy-intensive manufacturers scaling down production as a result of spiking gas prices following a shift away from Russian piped gas supply to liquefied natural gas imports.
Industrial emissions fell by 20 million tons...
...While the figures may indicate progress, the industry emissions reduction did not reflect a "sustainable development," cautioned {energy think tank Agora director Simon Müller}. "The crisis-related slump in production weakens the German economy. If emissions are subsequently relocated abroad, then nothing has been achieved for the climate"...
https://www.dw.com/en/germany-2023-emissions-lowest-in-70-years-study/a-67887578
30margd
Zack Labe @ZLabe | 8:22 AM · Jan 4, 2024:
Climate Scientist (Atmospheric) PhD | Postdoc at Princeton and NOAA_GFDL
🚨 Last year averaged the highest global mean sea surface temperature on record.
Extensive warm anomalies stretched across the world's oceans in addition to the ongoing El Niño.
Data from NOAA ERSSTv5 averaged from January to December at https://psl.noaa.gov/data/gridded/data.noaa.ersst.v5.html
Line graph time series of global mean sea surface temperature anomalies for each year from 1900 to 2023. There is interannual variability and a long-term warming trend. ( https://twitter.com/ZLabe/status/1742899323640406064/photo/1 )
Climate Scientist (Atmospheric) PhD | Postdoc at Princeton and NOAA_GFDL
🚨 Last year averaged the highest global mean sea surface temperature on record.
Extensive warm anomalies stretched across the world's oceans in addition to the ongoing El Niño.
Data from NOAA ERSSTv5 averaged from January to December at https://psl.noaa.gov/data/gridded/data.noaa.ersst.v5.html
Line graph time series of global mean sea surface temperature anomalies for each year from 1900 to 2023. There is interannual variability and a long-term warming trend. ( https://twitter.com/ZLabe/status/1742899323640406064/photo/1 )
31margd
Human-induced climate change to blame for sharp decline in spring snowpack: study
The Canadian Press | Jan 10, 2024
31 major river basins have been affected in the Northern Hemisphere, including the St. Lawrence-Great Lakes...
...anthropocentric climate change was responsible for a seven-per-cent drop in March snowpack per decade over 40 years. {margd: so 28%??}
John Pomeroy, a leading Canadian expert in water resources and climate change who was not part of the study, says Canada is already seeing the effects of lower spring snowpack in the form of droughts and wildfires.
https://montrealgazette.com/news/national/human-induced-climate-change-to-blame-...
-----------------------------------------------------
Alexander R. Gottlieb & Justin S. Mankin 2024. Evidence of human influence on Northern Hemisphere snow loss. Open access. Nature volume 625, pages 293–300 (10 Jan 2024). https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-023-06794-y
Abstract
...Here we show that human-caused warming has caused declines in Northern Hemisphere-scale March snowpack over the 1981–2020 period. Using an ensemble of snowpack reconstructions, we identify robust snow trends in 82 out of 169 major Northern Hemisphere river basins, 31 of which we can confidently attribute to human influence. Most crucially, we show a generalizable and highly nonlinear temperature sensitivity of snowpack, in which snow becomes marginally more sensitive to one degree Celsius of warming as climatological winter temperatures exceed minus eight degrees Celsius. Such nonlinearity explains the lack of widespread snow loss so far and augurs much sharper declines and water security risks in the most populous basins. Together, our results emphasize that human-forced snow losses and their water consequences are attributable—even absent their clear detection in individual snow products—and will accelerate and homogenize with near-term warming, posing risks to water resources in the absence of substantial climate mitigation.
The Canadian Press | Jan 10, 2024
31 major river basins have been affected in the Northern Hemisphere, including the St. Lawrence-Great Lakes...
...anthropocentric climate change was responsible for a seven-per-cent drop in March snowpack per decade over 40 years. {margd: so 28%??}
John Pomeroy, a leading Canadian expert in water resources and climate change who was not part of the study, says Canada is already seeing the effects of lower spring snowpack in the form of droughts and wildfires.
https://montrealgazette.com/news/national/human-induced-climate-change-to-blame-...
-----------------------------------------------------
Alexander R. Gottlieb & Justin S. Mankin 2024. Evidence of human influence on Northern Hemisphere snow loss. Open access. Nature volume 625, pages 293–300 (10 Jan 2024). https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-023-06794-y
Abstract
...Here we show that human-caused warming has caused declines in Northern Hemisphere-scale March snowpack over the 1981–2020 period. Using an ensemble of snowpack reconstructions, we identify robust snow trends in 82 out of 169 major Northern Hemisphere river basins, 31 of which we can confidently attribute to human influence. Most crucially, we show a generalizable and highly nonlinear temperature sensitivity of snowpack, in which snow becomes marginally more sensitive to one degree Celsius of warming as climatological winter temperatures exceed minus eight degrees Celsius. Such nonlinearity explains the lack of widespread snow loss so far and augurs much sharper declines and water security risks in the most populous basins. Together, our results emphasize that human-forced snow losses and their water consequences are attributable—even absent their clear detection in individual snow products—and will accelerate and homogenize with near-term warming, posing risks to water resources in the absence of substantial climate mitigation.
32margd
Quebec man who blamed wildfires on government pleads guilty to setting 14 fires
The Canadian Press | January 15, 2024
CHIBOUGAMAU, Que. {northwest of Quebec City}- A Quebec man who posted conspiracy theories onl ine that forest fires were being deliberately set by the government has pleaded guilty to starting a series of fires himself that forced hundreds of people from their homes.
...(Brian) Paré's Facebook page, where he regularly posted about Quebec's record-breaking forest fire season...(included) claims the fires had been deliberately set by the government to trick people into believing in climate change.
https://www.thestar.com/news/canada/quebec-man-who-blamed-wildfires-on-governmen...
The Canadian Press | January 15, 2024
CHIBOUGAMAU, Que. {northwest of Quebec City}- A Quebec man who posted conspiracy theories onl ine that forest fires were being deliberately set by the government has pleaded guilty to starting a series of fires himself that forced hundreds of people from their homes.
...(Brian) Paré's Facebook page, where he regularly posted about Quebec's record-breaking forest fire season...(included) claims the fires had been deliberately set by the government to trick people into believing in climate change.
https://www.thestar.com/news/canada/quebec-man-who-blamed-wildfires-on-governmen...
33margd
Peter Dynes @PGDynes | 5:03 AM · Jan 15, 2024
Adaptation/Mitigation through SRT (surface reflection technology). Belfast.
"Soon everyone could be fighting over water" - Approximately 1.1 billion people worldwide lack access to clean drinking water, and 2.7 billion people experience water scarcity for at least one month every year.
0:51 ( https://twitter.com/PGDynes/status/1746835555034280029 )
Adaptation/Mitigation through SRT (surface reflection technology). Belfast.
"Soon everyone could be fighting over water" - Approximately 1.1 billion people worldwide lack access to clean drinking water, and 2.7 billion people experience water scarcity for at least one month every year.
0:51 ( https://twitter.com/PGDynes/status/1746835555034280029 )
34margd
Clearing Skies: Opening a New Path on Climate and the Future
James Gustave Speth • November 28, 2023
Adapting to climate change does not address the societal systems and values that spawned the current crisis. What’s needed is “systemic adaptation” that fundamentally changes our economy, our politics, and our priorities in ways that put community and the planet first.
...the Big Mistake of climate catastrophe. What is it about our society, our economy, our politics, and our culture that has let this giant failing happen? What is it that has led us to this tragedy?
First, America decades ago unleashed a virulent, fast-growing strain of corporate-consumerist capitalism.
Second, our political economy evolved and gathered force in parallel with the U.S. role in the Cold War.
Third, a weak, flawed democratic system has also made the Big Mistake possible.
Fourth. The final, and in many ways the most fundamental, flaw leading to the Great Mistake are a set of dominant cultural values and habits of thought — an outmoded and now dangerous consciousness.
Perhaps there are other paths to today’s climate crisis, but I see these four as the main ones leading to the Big Mistake, at least for the United States. When one considers them, it is clear why systemic adaptation is needed. Taken together they are destructive of people and planet, and unless change occurs, they will continue to be...
Progress towards systemic adaptation is hardly certain, but for those who care about our future, the struggle is essential.
https://e360.yale.edu/features/systemic-adaptation
James Gustave Speth • November 28, 2023
Adapting to climate change does not address the societal systems and values that spawned the current crisis. What’s needed is “systemic adaptation” that fundamentally changes our economy, our politics, and our priorities in ways that put community and the planet first.
...the Big Mistake of climate catastrophe. What is it about our society, our economy, our politics, and our culture that has let this giant failing happen? What is it that has led us to this tragedy?
First, America decades ago unleashed a virulent, fast-growing strain of corporate-consumerist capitalism.
Second, our political economy evolved and gathered force in parallel with the U.S. role in the Cold War.
Third, a weak, flawed democratic system has also made the Big Mistake possible.
Fourth. The final, and in many ways the most fundamental, flaw leading to the Great Mistake are a set of dominant cultural values and habits of thought — an outmoded and now dangerous consciousness.
Perhaps there are other paths to today’s climate crisis, but I see these four as the main ones leading to the Big Mistake, at least for the United States. When one considers them, it is clear why systemic adaptation is needed. Taken together they are destructive of people and planet, and unless change occurs, they will continue to be...
Progress towards systemic adaptation is hardly certain, but for those who care about our future, the struggle is essential.
https://e360.yale.edu/features/systemic-adaptation
35margd
Atlantic Ocean Current Predicted to Collapse by Mid-Century
University of Copenhagen | 26 Jul 2023
Important ocean currents that redistribute heat, cold and precipitation between the tropics and the northernmost parts of the Atlantic region will shut down around the year 2060 if current greenhouse gas emissions persist. This is the conclusion based on new calculations from the University of Copenhagen that contradict the latest report from the IPCC.
Contrary to what we may imagine about the impact of climate change in Europe, a colder future may be in store. In a new study, researchers from the University of Copenhagen's Niels Bohr Institute and Department of Mathematical Sciences predict that the system of ocean currents which currently distributes cold and heat between the North Atlantic region and tropics will completely stop if we continue to emit the same levels of greenhouse gases as we do today.
Using advanced statistical tools and ocean temperature data from the last 150 years, the researchers calculated that the ocean current, known as the Thermohaline Circulation or the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), will collapse - with 95 percent certainty - between 2025 and 2095. This will most likely occur in 34 years, in 2057, and could result in major challenges, particularly warming in the tropics and increased storminess in the North Atlantic region.
"Shutting down the AMOC can have very serious consequences for Earth's climate, for example, by changing how heat and precipitation are distributed globally. While a cooling of Europe may seem less severe as the globe as a whole becomes warmer and heat waves occur more frequently, this shutdown will contribute to an increased warming of the tropics, where rising temperatures have already given rise to challenging living conditions," says Professor Peter Ditlevsen from the Niels Bohr Institute...
https://www.miragenews.com/atlantic-ocean-current-predicted-to-collapse-by-10534...
-------------------------------------------------------
Peter Ditlevsen & Susanne Ditlevsen 2023. Warning of a forthcoming collapse of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation. Open access. Nature Communications volume 14, Article number: 4254 (25 July 2023). https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-023-39810-w#Sec7
University of Copenhagen | 26 Jul 2023
Important ocean currents that redistribute heat, cold and precipitation between the tropics and the northernmost parts of the Atlantic region will shut down around the year 2060 if current greenhouse gas emissions persist. This is the conclusion based on new calculations from the University of Copenhagen that contradict the latest report from the IPCC.
Contrary to what we may imagine about the impact of climate change in Europe, a colder future may be in store. In a new study, researchers from the University of Copenhagen's Niels Bohr Institute and Department of Mathematical Sciences predict that the system of ocean currents which currently distributes cold and heat between the North Atlantic region and tropics will completely stop if we continue to emit the same levels of greenhouse gases as we do today.
Using advanced statistical tools and ocean temperature data from the last 150 years, the researchers calculated that the ocean current, known as the Thermohaline Circulation or the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), will collapse - with 95 percent certainty - between 2025 and 2095. This will most likely occur in 34 years, in 2057, and could result in major challenges, particularly warming in the tropics and increased storminess in the North Atlantic region.
"Shutting down the AMOC can have very serious consequences for Earth's climate, for example, by changing how heat and precipitation are distributed globally. While a cooling of Europe may seem less severe as the globe as a whole becomes warmer and heat waves occur more frequently, this shutdown will contribute to an increased warming of the tropics, where rising temperatures have already given rise to challenging living conditions," says Professor Peter Ditlevsen from the Niels Bohr Institute...
https://www.miragenews.com/atlantic-ocean-current-predicted-to-collapse-by-10534...
-------------------------------------------------------
Peter Ditlevsen & Susanne Ditlevsen 2023. Warning of a forthcoming collapse of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation. Open access. Nature Communications volume 14, Article number: 4254 (25 July 2023). https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-023-39810-w#Sec7
36lriley
>33 margd: This has been coming on for a while. Resource wars will be a thing of the future. Another reason for people to turn to some kind of communal socialism because the billionaires of this world are going to want to lock up control of all the various resources.
FWIW we live up a steep hill and have a well with over 100' of water according to the driller.
That said who really ever owns anything? I kind of look at myself as the temporary placeholder and as a 66 year old having gone through one bout with cancer if I can make it through another 15 years of some kind of relative health......anyway I don't take it for granted that the cancer won't come back or any number of other things that happen to people as they age.
To go back to my opening comment because the one political party is on the side of the wealthy....and of billionaires whether or not a good % of its supporters have much wealth or not. The other major political party won't go there either or at least not the current version. Some of the true progressives might particularly what's known today as the Justice Democrats but you can't really trust those who have their hands out to any lobbying group willing to give them campaign cash. The bulk of democratic politicians at least right now aren't going to make the hard choices because it doesn't benefit them.
FWIW we live up a steep hill and have a well with over 100' of water according to the driller.
That said who really ever owns anything? I kind of look at myself as the temporary placeholder and as a 66 year old having gone through one bout with cancer if I can make it through another 15 years of some kind of relative health......anyway I don't take it for granted that the cancer won't come back or any number of other things that happen to people as they age.
To go back to my opening comment because the one political party is on the side of the wealthy....and of billionaires whether or not a good % of its supporters have much wealth or not. The other major political party won't go there either or at least not the current version. Some of the true progressives might particularly what's known today as the Justice Democrats but you can't really trust those who have their hands out to any lobbying group willing to give them campaign cash. The bulk of democratic politicians at least right now aren't going to make the hard choices because it doesn't benefit them.
37margd
In Collapse: How Societies Choose to Fail or Succeed, Jared Diamond reviewed case histories of a number of societies, some of which overcame challenges of finite resources, and others which succumbed. I seem to recall that autocrats and democrats experienced both success and failure? Unless remarkable leaders emerge--and soon-- I can't see how our society is going to survive climate change, though. Sorry, kids! :(
38margd
The #1 Reason I Became A Doomer
Collapse Musings | Jan 16, 2024
We're not doomed because of climate change, resource depletion, or biodiversity loss. We're doomed because human nature made those things inevitable.
...To be clear, I’m not saying humans aren’t intelligent enough to deal with the polycrisis. I believe that if everyone on the planet became collapse-aware and committed to saving the human race and as much of the natural world as possible, we could actually pull it off. The population would still decline due to overshoot, but we could turn the decline into a glide instead of a crash.
The problem isn’t a lack of intelligence. Rather, the problem is both psychological and sociological. Humans are incapable of overcoming the polycrisis because they tend to ignore or deny facts that make them uncomfortable.
...{Hannah Ritchie >28 margd:} is telling people that we can maintain modern civilization and stop climate change. That we can have our cake and eat it too. By doing this, she’s only making things worse. Books and articles like hers make it easier for people to deny reality and continue their carbon-based lifestyles without feeling guilty or afraid.
If climate change had a simple fix—like the Montreal Protocol—we would have done it already. But there is no fix for climate change. At best, we could slow it down, but that would require most people to drastically lower their standard of living—something like a permanent Great Depression. And since that is unthinkable, people deny the truth and tell themselves everything will be okay.
That’s why I became a doomer. I realized that people are unwilling to make the changes necessary to avoid collapse, so they deny reality and cling to false hope. For decades, scientists have been warning us that we have to act as soon as possible, yet all we’ve done is the bare minimum. I don’t see any signs of that changing.
Humans simply didn’t evolve to handle a situation like this, and now there is research confirming it. According to a study by the University of Maine*, certain features of human evolution could be stopping us from solving environmental problems. Researchers looked at how sustainable human systems emerged in the past, and they found two patterns:
Sustainable systems emerge only after groups have failed to maintain their resources. But today, if we don’t learn our lesson until after we’ve exhausted our resources, it will be too late. We won’t have the option to relocate to a new area because climate change and resource depletion are happening everywhere.
Systems of environmental protection tend to address problems within societies, not between societies. To slow down climate change, we would need worldwide regulatory, economic, and social systems. Without that, individual countries and regions will focus on their own problems and could even go to war with their neighbors for resources.
...In other words, the traits were beneficial in natural selection and allowed humans to colonize the entire planet are counterproductive in a global civilization. Our technological progress has far outpaced our emotional maturity, and now we’re like monkeys playing with blowtorches. Eventually, we’re gonna burn everything down.
And like I said before, even if we were capable of facing reality and working together on a global scale, it’s already too late to prevent a climate catastrophe. Maybe we could slow it down, but it wouldn’t prevent the collapse of modern civilization because it’s already too late.
So what now?
Instead of lying to ourselves and repeatedly claiming that “there is a rapidly closing window of opportunity to secure a livable and sustainable future for all,” we should just admit that we fucked up and deal with the consequences.
Once we do this, we can stop trying to sustain an unsustainable civilization and instead focus on adapting to a warmer world and minimizing the pain as much as possible. It will still be hell, but I believe we could make a significant difference if we tried. For example, maybe the global population could drop by a billion per decade instead of a billion per year.
But right now, it looks like we’re heading for a rather sudden and uncontrollable collapse in the next decade or two. When that happens, we’re going to see the worst of humanity. Once all the food is gone, people are going to turn on each other, and it’s gonna get ugly. However, I believe we’ll also see the best of humanity. We’ll see acts of heroism, bravery, and sacrifice like never before.
I don’t know how my life is going to end, but I’d rather go out helping people than hurting people. As Michael Campi wrote, “What if we did things not for points, or rewards, or recognition but for the sheer joy that comes from making someone else happy for a moment? That’s all that’s left to us.”
He’s right. We’ve already lost everything else. All we can do now is wait for the end and try to be a source of comfort and strength for those around us.
https://www.collapsemusings.com/the-1-reason-i-became-a-doomer/
------------------------------------------------
* Timothy M. Waring et al. 2024. Characteristic processes of human evolution caused the Anthropocene and may obstruct its global solutions. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B. Published:13 November 2023. https://doi.org/10.1098/rstb.2022.0259 https://royalsocietypublishing.org/doi/10.1098/rstb.2022.0259
Abstract
We propose that the global environmental crises of the Anthropocene are the outcome of a ratcheting process in long-term human evolution which has favoured groups of increased size and greater environmental exploitation. To explore this hypothesis, we review the changes in the human ecological niche. Evidence indicates the growth of the human niche has been facilitated by group-level cultural traits for environmental control. Following this logic, sustaining the biosphere under intense human use will probably require global cultural traits, including legal and technical systems. We investigate the conditions for the evolution of global cultural traits. We estimate that our species does not exhibit adequate population structure to evolve these traits. Our analysis suggests that characteristic patterns of human group-level cultural evolution created the Anthropocene and will work against global collective solutions to the environmental challenges it poses. We illustrate the implications of this theory with alternative evolutionary paths for humanity. We conclude that our species must alter longstanding patterns of cultural evolution to avoid environmental disaster and escalating between-group competition. We propose an applied research and policy programme with the goal of avoiding these outcomes.
Abstract
1. Introduction
2. Human evolutionary ratchets help explain the Anthropocene
3. The evolution of the human ecological niche
4. Group-level cultural traits for environmental control
5. The population structure problem of the human evolutionary transition
6. Navigating human evolution in the Anthropocene
7. The expansive nature of human sociality
8. Research agenda
9. Implications for policy and intervention in the Anthropocene
10. Conclusion
Collapse Musings | Jan 16, 2024
We're not doomed because of climate change, resource depletion, or biodiversity loss. We're doomed because human nature made those things inevitable.
...To be clear, I’m not saying humans aren’t intelligent enough to deal with the polycrisis. I believe that if everyone on the planet became collapse-aware and committed to saving the human race and as much of the natural world as possible, we could actually pull it off. The population would still decline due to overshoot, but we could turn the decline into a glide instead of a crash.
The problem isn’t a lack of intelligence. Rather, the problem is both psychological and sociological. Humans are incapable of overcoming the polycrisis because they tend to ignore or deny facts that make them uncomfortable.
...{Hannah Ritchie >28 margd:} is telling people that we can maintain modern civilization and stop climate change. That we can have our cake and eat it too. By doing this, she’s only making things worse. Books and articles like hers make it easier for people to deny reality and continue their carbon-based lifestyles without feeling guilty or afraid.
If climate change had a simple fix—like the Montreal Protocol—we would have done it already. But there is no fix for climate change. At best, we could slow it down, but that would require most people to drastically lower their standard of living—something like a permanent Great Depression. And since that is unthinkable, people deny the truth and tell themselves everything will be okay.
That’s why I became a doomer. I realized that people are unwilling to make the changes necessary to avoid collapse, so they deny reality and cling to false hope. For decades, scientists have been warning us that we have to act as soon as possible, yet all we’ve done is the bare minimum. I don’t see any signs of that changing.
Humans simply didn’t evolve to handle a situation like this, and now there is research confirming it. According to a study by the University of Maine*, certain features of human evolution could be stopping us from solving environmental problems. Researchers looked at how sustainable human systems emerged in the past, and they found two patterns:
Sustainable systems emerge only after groups have failed to maintain their resources. But today, if we don’t learn our lesson until after we’ve exhausted our resources, it will be too late. We won’t have the option to relocate to a new area because climate change and resource depletion are happening everywhere.
Systems of environmental protection tend to address problems within societies, not between societies. To slow down climate change, we would need worldwide regulatory, economic, and social systems. Without that, individual countries and regions will focus on their own problems and could even go to war with their neighbors for resources.
...In other words, the traits were beneficial in natural selection and allowed humans to colonize the entire planet are counterproductive in a global civilization. Our technological progress has far outpaced our emotional maturity, and now we’re like monkeys playing with blowtorches. Eventually, we’re gonna burn everything down.
And like I said before, even if we were capable of facing reality and working together on a global scale, it’s already too late to prevent a climate catastrophe. Maybe we could slow it down, but it wouldn’t prevent the collapse of modern civilization because it’s already too late.
So what now?
Instead of lying to ourselves and repeatedly claiming that “there is a rapidly closing window of opportunity to secure a livable and sustainable future for all,” we should just admit that we fucked up and deal with the consequences.
Once we do this, we can stop trying to sustain an unsustainable civilization and instead focus on adapting to a warmer world and minimizing the pain as much as possible. It will still be hell, but I believe we could make a significant difference if we tried. For example, maybe the global population could drop by a billion per decade instead of a billion per year.
But right now, it looks like we’re heading for a rather sudden and uncontrollable collapse in the next decade or two. When that happens, we’re going to see the worst of humanity. Once all the food is gone, people are going to turn on each other, and it’s gonna get ugly. However, I believe we’ll also see the best of humanity. We’ll see acts of heroism, bravery, and sacrifice like never before.
I don’t know how my life is going to end, but I’d rather go out helping people than hurting people. As Michael Campi wrote, “What if we did things not for points, or rewards, or recognition but for the sheer joy that comes from making someone else happy for a moment? That’s all that’s left to us.”
He’s right. We’ve already lost everything else. All we can do now is wait for the end and try to be a source of comfort and strength for those around us.
https://www.collapsemusings.com/the-1-reason-i-became-a-doomer/
------------------------------------------------
* Timothy M. Waring et al. 2024. Characteristic processes of human evolution caused the Anthropocene and may obstruct its global solutions. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B. Published:13 November 2023. https://doi.org/10.1098/rstb.2022.0259 https://royalsocietypublishing.org/doi/10.1098/rstb.2022.0259
Abstract
We propose that the global environmental crises of the Anthropocene are the outcome of a ratcheting process in long-term human evolution which has favoured groups of increased size and greater environmental exploitation. To explore this hypothesis, we review the changes in the human ecological niche. Evidence indicates the growth of the human niche has been facilitated by group-level cultural traits for environmental control. Following this logic, sustaining the biosphere under intense human use will probably require global cultural traits, including legal and technical systems. We investigate the conditions for the evolution of global cultural traits. We estimate that our species does not exhibit adequate population structure to evolve these traits. Our analysis suggests that characteristic patterns of human group-level cultural evolution created the Anthropocene and will work against global collective solutions to the environmental challenges it poses. We illustrate the implications of this theory with alternative evolutionary paths for humanity. We conclude that our species must alter longstanding patterns of cultural evolution to avoid environmental disaster and escalating between-group competition. We propose an applied research and policy programme with the goal of avoiding these outcomes.
Abstract
1. Introduction
2. Human evolutionary ratchets help explain the Anthropocene
3. The evolution of the human ecological niche
4. Group-level cultural traits for environmental control
5. The population structure problem of the human evolutionary transition
6. Navigating human evolution in the Anthropocene
7. The expansive nature of human sociality
8. Research agenda
9. Implications for policy and intervention in the Anthropocene
10. Conclusion
39margd
A record 63 billion-dollar weather disasters hit Earth in 2023
Jeff Masters | January 18, 2024
Seven nations had their most expensive weather disaster on record, and the continent of Africa suffered two of its deadliest.
The planet was besieged by a record 63 billion-dollar weather disasters in 2023, surpassing the previous record of 57 set in 2020, said insurance broker Gallagher Re in its annual report issued January 17. The total damage wrought by weather disasters in 2023 was $301 billion, with an unusually high 57% of that total being insured damages. For comparison, weather disasters did $360 billion in damage in 2022, with 39% of the total being insured damages. Gallagher Re’s historical database extends back to 1990.
U.S. sets a record for billion-dollar weather disasters, with 28
Hail the big driver of severe thunderstorm losses
Deadliest weather disaster of 2023: the European heat wave
Deadliest storm of 2023 and costliest disaster in African history: Storm Daniel in Libya
Deadliest tropical cyclone on record for Africa: Cyclone Freddy
Climate change is increasing the severity of deadly African weather disasters
Most expensive typhoon on record for China: Doksuri
...Here are the seven nations that had their costliest weather disaster in 2023:
Mexico: $15.1 billion, Hurricane Otis (previous record: $7.5 billion, 2005’s Hurricane Wilma )
Argentina: $9.2 billion, drought (previous record: $4 billion, 2018 drought)
Spain: $8.2 billion, drought (previous record: $3.1 billion, 2005 wildfires)
Libya: $7 billion, Storm Daniel (previous record: $8 million, 2019 floods)
New Zealand: $3.8 billion, Cyclone Gabrielle (previous record: $3 billion, 2023 North Island flood)
Greece: $3 billion, Storm Daniel (previous record: $2.5 billion, 2007 wildfires)
Uruguay: $1.3 billion, drought (previous record: $0.6 billion, 2018 drought)
https://yaleclimateconnections.org/2024/01/a-record-63-billion-dollar-weather-di...
Jeff Masters | January 18, 2024
Seven nations had their most expensive weather disaster on record, and the continent of Africa suffered two of its deadliest.
The planet was besieged by a record 63 billion-dollar weather disasters in 2023, surpassing the previous record of 57 set in 2020, said insurance broker Gallagher Re in its annual report issued January 17. The total damage wrought by weather disasters in 2023 was $301 billion, with an unusually high 57% of that total being insured damages. For comparison, weather disasters did $360 billion in damage in 2022, with 39% of the total being insured damages. Gallagher Re’s historical database extends back to 1990.
U.S. sets a record for billion-dollar weather disasters, with 28
Hail the big driver of severe thunderstorm losses
Deadliest weather disaster of 2023: the European heat wave
Deadliest storm of 2023 and costliest disaster in African history: Storm Daniel in Libya
Deadliest tropical cyclone on record for Africa: Cyclone Freddy
Climate change is increasing the severity of deadly African weather disasters
Most expensive typhoon on record for China: Doksuri
...Here are the seven nations that had their costliest weather disaster in 2023:
Mexico: $15.1 billion, Hurricane Otis (previous record: $7.5 billion, 2005’s Hurricane Wilma )
Argentina: $9.2 billion, drought (previous record: $4 billion, 2018 drought)
Spain: $8.2 billion, drought (previous record: $3.1 billion, 2005 wildfires)
Libya: $7 billion, Storm Daniel (previous record: $8 million, 2019 floods)
New Zealand: $3.8 billion, Cyclone Gabrielle (previous record: $3 billion, 2023 North Island flood)
Greece: $3 billion, Storm Daniel (previous record: $2.5 billion, 2007 wildfires)
Uruguay: $1.3 billion, drought (previous record: $0.6 billion, 2018 drought)
https://yaleclimateconnections.org/2024/01/a-record-63-billion-dollar-weather-di...
40margd
How meat and milk companies are racing to ease your climate guilt
Evan Halper and Laura Reiley | January 24, 2024
...Meat companies are trying to persuade consumers that eating the right kind of beef can be almost as good for curbing climate change - maybe even better - than swapping it for an Impossible Burger or the latest dinner plate innovation, lab-cultivated meat. The claims are fortified with meat industry-funded studies. The industry argument is contested by many prominent scientists and by the United Nations climate change office, which credits Impossible Burgers with generating 89 percent fewer emissions than a traditional beef patty...
...GHG Protocol, which is managed by the World Resources Institute and the World Business Council for Sustainable Development...publication of draft guidelines for farm and forestry emissions. Dozens of environmental groups and academics say the rules as proposed would allow companies to declare climate-unfriendly products such as lumber, paper, beef and milk carbon neutral - or even carbon negative - by making modest land use adjustments that don’t truly mitigate the emissions of those products...
https://news.yahoo.com/meat-milk-companies-racing-ease-223947049.html
Evan Halper and Laura Reiley | January 24, 2024
...Meat companies are trying to persuade consumers that eating the right kind of beef can be almost as good for curbing climate change - maybe even better - than swapping it for an Impossible Burger or the latest dinner plate innovation, lab-cultivated meat. The claims are fortified with meat industry-funded studies. The industry argument is contested by many prominent scientists and by the United Nations climate change office, which credits Impossible Burgers with generating 89 percent fewer emissions than a traditional beef patty...
...GHG Protocol, which is managed by the World Resources Institute and the World Business Council for Sustainable Development...publication of draft guidelines for farm and forestry emissions. Dozens of environmental groups and academics say the rules as proposed would allow companies to declare climate-unfriendly products such as lumber, paper, beef and milk carbon neutral - or even carbon negative - by making modest land use adjustments that don’t truly mitigate the emissions of those products...
https://news.yahoo.com/meat-milk-companies-racing-ease-223947049.html
41margd
How Does Plastic Affect Climate Change?
Josh Jackman* | January 16, 2024
...Plastics release 1.8 billion tonnes of greenhouse gases per year, which equates to 3.4% of the world’s emissions. That means plastic has a bigger effect on climate change every year than all aviation and shipping...
Key takeaways
Plastic releases more emissions per year than planes and shipping
93% of plastics are made with fossil fuels
14% of all extracted oil goes towards making plastic
Humans throw away 353 million tonnes of plastic per year
That figure has doubled since 2000
Plastic kills a million seabirds and 100,000 marine mammals per year
Plastics release methane as they break down, which causes global heating
Global heating causes plastics to degrade quicker...
https://blog.cleanhub.com/how-plastic-pollution-impacts-climate-change
* Josh has written about green technology and climate change for the past five years. His data-driven work has featured in the Financial Times, The i, The Independent, The Telegraph, The Times, The Sun, and the Daily Express, as well as UN and WHO reports.
Josh Jackman* | January 16, 2024
...Plastics release 1.8 billion tonnes of greenhouse gases per year, which equates to 3.4% of the world’s emissions. That means plastic has a bigger effect on climate change every year than all aviation and shipping...
Key takeaways
Plastic releases more emissions per year than planes and shipping
93% of plastics are made with fossil fuels
14% of all extracted oil goes towards making plastic
Humans throw away 353 million tonnes of plastic per year
That figure has doubled since 2000
Plastic kills a million seabirds and 100,000 marine mammals per year
Plastics release methane as they break down, which causes global heating
Global heating causes plastics to degrade quicker...
https://blog.cleanhub.com/how-plastic-pollution-impacts-climate-change
* Josh has written about green technology and climate change for the past five years. His data-driven work has featured in the Financial Times, The i, The Independent, The Telegraph, The Times, The Sun, and the Daily Express, as well as UN and WHO reports.
42margd
Jeff Berardelli @WeatherProf | 9:31 PM · Feb 1, 2024:
WFLA-TV (Tampa Bay) Chief Meteorologist and Climate Specialist. BS Atmospheric Sciences Cornell U. MA Climate Columbia U. Past CBS News NY and Miami, Tampa, WPB
In a warmer climate, snow levels {elevation} rise and snow pack decreases by a HUGE amount. Why? Think about the difference in width of the mountain base vs peak. The drop in snow pack area is huge. (This is an idealized graphic, numbers are only to help explain). The result is this… 🧵 1/
0:13 ( https://twitter.com/WeatherProf/status/1753244819084709898 )
The projected decline in snowpack and thus runoff into reservoirs is stunning and scary by mid-late century. In the orange and red snowpack thins to almost nothing in just a few decades. Think about the water woes/ wildfire threat this brings 2/
Graph, snowpack decline in CA and w US ( https://twitter.com/WeatherProf/status/1753246449813410161/photo/1 )
Today in my Climate Classroom I interviewed @UCB_CSSL Dr Andrew Schwartz to talk about this phenomena, atmospheric rivers, weather whiplash and more...
Weather whiplash increasing in a warming climate
Jeff Berardelli | Feb 1, 2024
...Human-caused climate change is heating our planet, adding massive amounts of energy to the climate system...a warmer atmosphere holds more moisture and dumps more rain...at the same time, climate change is drying the Earth’s surface... Lastly, storm patterns are becoming less consistent in some places...the lead scientist studying this discipline, Dr. Daniel Swain, says weather whiplash is increasing much faster than the climate models project it will...
https://www.wfla.com/weather/climate-classroom/weather-whiplash-increasing-in-a-...
----------------------------------------------
Erica R. Siirila-Woodbur et al. 2021. A low-to-no snow future and its impacts on water resources in the western United States (Review). Nature Reviews Earth & Environment volume 2, pages 800–819 (26 Oct 2021)
Abstract
Anthropogenic climate change is decreasing seasonal snowpacks globally, with potentially catastrophic consequences on water resources, given the long-held reliance on snowpack in water management. In this Review, we examine the changes and trickle-down impacts of snow loss in the western United States (WUS). Across the WUS, snow water equivalent declines of ~25% are expected by 2050, with losses comparable with contemporary historical trends. There is less consensus on the time horizon of snow disappearance, but model projections combined with a new low-to-no snow definition suggest ~35–60 years before low-to-no snow becomes persistent if greenhouse gas emissions continue unabated. Diminished and more ephemeral snowpacks that melt earlier will alter groundwater and streamflow dynamics. The direction of these changes are difficult to constrain given competing factors such as higher evapotranspiration, altered vegetation composition and changes in wildfire behaviour in a warmer world. These changes undermine conventional WUS water management practices, but through proactive implementation of soft and hard adaptation strategies, there is potential to build resilience to extreme, episodic and, eventually, persistent low-to-no snow conditions. Federal investments offer a timely opportunity to address these vulnerabilities, but they require a concerted portfolio of activities that cross historically siloed physical and disciplinary boundaries.
Key points
1. Mountain snowpacks in the western United States (WUS) have historically acted as large, natural reservoirs of water; yet, they are now harbingers of a changing climate through their signalling of a low-to-no snow future.
2. Models projecting the time horizon of low-to-no snow in the WUS lack spatiotemporal consensus due to differences in definitions, metrics, methods and regionally specific analyses.
3. Low-to-no snow will impose a series of cascading hydrologic changes to the water–energy balance, including vegetation processes, surface and subsurface water storage and, ultimately, streamflow that directly impacts water management.
4. A re-evaluation of long-standing hydroclimatic stationarity assumptions in WUS water management is urgently needed, given the impending trickle-down impacts of a low-to-no snow future.
5. Observational and modelling advances are needed to better understand the implications of a low-to-no snow future on water resources and to evaluate the trade-offs among a wide array of potential adaptation strategies that can address both water supply availability and water demands.
6. Co-production of knowledge between scientists and water managers can help to ensure that scientific advances provide actionable insight and support adaptation decision-making processes that unfold in the context of significant uncertainties about future conditions.
_____________________________________
Record low snowfall sounds alarm for water security in the Hindu Kush Himalaya
Mountain peaks in the Hindu Kush Himalaya (HKH) region – usually capped in a white blanket of snow in the winter – remain noticeably bare this year, particularly in the western Himalayas. This winter has been very unusual, with little or no snowfall throughout the region. Farmers are understandably concerned, as low snowfall has a direct and severe impact on agriculture. This is particularly acute for the HKH region which is heavily dependent on agriculture.
- Arshini Saikia and Chimi Seldon | 25 Jan, 2024
https://blog.icimod.org/cryosphere-water/cryosphere-water-record-low-snowfall-so...
WFLA-TV (Tampa Bay) Chief Meteorologist and Climate Specialist. BS Atmospheric Sciences Cornell U. MA Climate Columbia U. Past CBS News NY and Miami, Tampa, WPB
In a warmer climate, snow levels {elevation} rise and snow pack decreases by a HUGE amount. Why? Think about the difference in width of the mountain base vs peak. The drop in snow pack area is huge. (This is an idealized graphic, numbers are only to help explain). The result is this… 🧵 1/
0:13 ( https://twitter.com/WeatherProf/status/1753244819084709898 )
The projected decline in snowpack and thus runoff into reservoirs is stunning and scary by mid-late century. In the orange and red snowpack thins to almost nothing in just a few decades. Think about the water woes/ wildfire threat this brings 2/
Graph, snowpack decline in CA and w US ( https://twitter.com/WeatherProf/status/1753246449813410161/photo/1 )
Today in my Climate Classroom I interviewed @UCB_CSSL Dr Andrew Schwartz to talk about this phenomena, atmospheric rivers, weather whiplash and more...
Weather whiplash increasing in a warming climate
Jeff Berardelli | Feb 1, 2024
...Human-caused climate change is heating our planet, adding massive amounts of energy to the climate system...a warmer atmosphere holds more moisture and dumps more rain...at the same time, climate change is drying the Earth’s surface... Lastly, storm patterns are becoming less consistent in some places...the lead scientist studying this discipline, Dr. Daniel Swain, says weather whiplash is increasing much faster than the climate models project it will...
https://www.wfla.com/weather/climate-classroom/weather-whiplash-increasing-in-a-...
----------------------------------------------
Erica R. Siirila-Woodbur et al. 2021. A low-to-no snow future and its impacts on water resources in the western United States (Review). Nature Reviews Earth & Environment volume 2, pages 800–819 (26 Oct 2021)
Abstract
Anthropogenic climate change is decreasing seasonal snowpacks globally, with potentially catastrophic consequences on water resources, given the long-held reliance on snowpack in water management. In this Review, we examine the changes and trickle-down impacts of snow loss in the western United States (WUS). Across the WUS, snow water equivalent declines of ~25% are expected by 2050, with losses comparable with contemporary historical trends. There is less consensus on the time horizon of snow disappearance, but model projections combined with a new low-to-no snow definition suggest ~35–60 years before low-to-no snow becomes persistent if greenhouse gas emissions continue unabated. Diminished and more ephemeral snowpacks that melt earlier will alter groundwater and streamflow dynamics. The direction of these changes are difficult to constrain given competing factors such as higher evapotranspiration, altered vegetation composition and changes in wildfire behaviour in a warmer world. These changes undermine conventional WUS water management practices, but through proactive implementation of soft and hard adaptation strategies, there is potential to build resilience to extreme, episodic and, eventually, persistent low-to-no snow conditions. Federal investments offer a timely opportunity to address these vulnerabilities, but they require a concerted portfolio of activities that cross historically siloed physical and disciplinary boundaries.
Key points
1. Mountain snowpacks in the western United States (WUS) have historically acted as large, natural reservoirs of water; yet, they are now harbingers of a changing climate through their signalling of a low-to-no snow future.
2. Models projecting the time horizon of low-to-no snow in the WUS lack spatiotemporal consensus due to differences in definitions, metrics, methods and regionally specific analyses.
3. Low-to-no snow will impose a series of cascading hydrologic changes to the water–energy balance, including vegetation processes, surface and subsurface water storage and, ultimately, streamflow that directly impacts water management.
4. A re-evaluation of long-standing hydroclimatic stationarity assumptions in WUS water management is urgently needed, given the impending trickle-down impacts of a low-to-no snow future.
5. Observational and modelling advances are needed to better understand the implications of a low-to-no snow future on water resources and to evaluate the trade-offs among a wide array of potential adaptation strategies that can address both water supply availability and water demands.
6. Co-production of knowledge between scientists and water managers can help to ensure that scientific advances provide actionable insight and support adaptation decision-making processes that unfold in the context of significant uncertainties about future conditions.
_____________________________________
Record low snowfall sounds alarm for water security in the Hindu Kush Himalaya
Mountain peaks in the Hindu Kush Himalaya (HKH) region – usually capped in a white blanket of snow in the winter – remain noticeably bare this year, particularly in the western Himalayas. This winter has been very unusual, with little or no snowfall throughout the region. Farmers are understandably concerned, as low snowfall has a direct and severe impact on agriculture. This is particularly acute for the HKH region which is heavily dependent on agriculture.
- Arshini Saikia and Chimi Seldon | 25 Jan, 2024
https://blog.icimod.org/cryosphere-water/cryosphere-water-record-low-snowfall-so...
43margd
Nat Bullard @NatBullard | 7:09 AM · Jan 31, 2024:
Deep decarbonization and the business of climate. Priors: @BloombergNEF , climate , @VoyagerVC .
It's here: my annual presentation on decarbonization.
There is a lot going on, and I attempt to capture it in 200 slides. Ocean heat content, deforestation, fund performance, vehicle efficiency, lighting technology, GLP-1 agonists, and much more.
Decarbonization:
Stocks and flows, abundance and scarcity, net zero
Nat Bullard | 31 Jan 2024
My annual presentation on the state of decarbonization told with climate, capital markets, technology, and sector data. A coherent view of the future begins with the clearest possible
view of the present.
https://nathanielbullard.com/presentations
https://twitter.com/NatBullard/status/1752665369616286117/photo/1
https://twitter.com/NatBullard/status/1752665369616286117/photo/2
https://twitter.com/NatBullard/status/1752665369616286117/photo/3
https://twitter.com/NatBullard/status/1752665369616286117/photo/4
Deep decarbonization and the business of climate. Priors: @BloombergNEF , climate , @VoyagerVC .
It's here: my annual presentation on decarbonization.
There is a lot going on, and I attempt to capture it in 200 slides. Ocean heat content, deforestation, fund performance, vehicle efficiency, lighting technology, GLP-1 agonists, and much more.
Decarbonization:
Stocks and flows, abundance and scarcity, net zero
Nat Bullard | 31 Jan 2024
My annual presentation on the state of decarbonization told with climate, capital markets, technology, and sector data. A coherent view of the future begins with the clearest possible
view of the present.
https://nathanielbullard.com/presentations
https://twitter.com/NatBullard/status/1752665369616286117/photo/1
https://twitter.com/NatBullard/status/1752665369616286117/photo/2
https://twitter.com/NatBullard/status/1752665369616286117/photo/3
https://twitter.com/NatBullard/status/1752665369616286117/photo/4
44margd
Recent research found that river sediment accretion will be insufficient to match sea level rise in most U.S. tidal wetlands:
Infographic, managing sediment to protect tidal marshes ( https://twitter.com/ScienceMagazine/status/1753470876790530142/photo/1 )
"...incoming sediment loads may be sufficient in the western Gulf of Mexico and Pacific coasts but insufficient in other regions where most watersheds are smaller. Local accretion is often higher than predicted from the model, suggesting an important role for biological processes to raise marsh elevation in the face of sea-level rise." (Bianca Lopez)
--------------------------------------
Laurel G. Larsen and Brett Milligan 2023. Sediment austerity is the new coastal norm. Insufficient river-derived sediment for tidal marshes requires creative, local management (Perspective). Science 7 Dec 2023 Vol 382, Issue 6675 pp. 1123-1124. DOI: 10.1126/science.adl4251
--------------------------------------
Scott H. Ensign et al. 2024. Watershed sediment cannot offset sea level rise in most US tidal wetlands. Science 7 Dec 2023 Vol 382, Issue 6675 pp. 1191-1195 DOI: 10.1126/science.adj0513 https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/science.adj0513
Infographic, managing sediment to protect tidal marshes ( https://twitter.com/ScienceMagazine/status/1753470876790530142/photo/1 )
"...incoming sediment loads may be sufficient in the western Gulf of Mexico and Pacific coasts but insufficient in other regions where most watersheds are smaller. Local accretion is often higher than predicted from the model, suggesting an important role for biological processes to raise marsh elevation in the face of sea-level rise." (Bianca Lopez)
--------------------------------------
Laurel G. Larsen and Brett Milligan 2023. Sediment austerity is the new coastal norm. Insufficient river-derived sediment for tidal marshes requires creative, local management (Perspective). Science 7 Dec 2023 Vol 382, Issue 6675 pp. 1123-1124. DOI: 10.1126/science.adl4251
--------------------------------------
Scott H. Ensign et al. 2024. Watershed sediment cannot offset sea level rise in most US tidal wetlands. Science 7 Dec 2023 Vol 382, Issue 6675 pp. 1191-1195 DOI: 10.1126/science.adj0513 https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/science.adj0513
45margd
Trump Allies Plan to Gut Climate Research if He Is Reelected
Scott Waldman & E&E News | February 2, 2024
Former President Donald Trump’s second term could begin with a clear direction on climate policy: Trash it.
Dozens of conservative organizations have banded together to provide Trump a road map — known as Project 2025 — if he prevails in November. It outlines a series of steps that the former president could take to reverse the climate actions taken by the Biden administration...
...Trump has already said that boosting fossil fuels would be one of his top priorities. A proposed executive order in Project 2025 offers him a path for that goal, laying out a total restructuring of the U.S. Global Change Research Program to diminish its role across more than a dozen federal agencies.
Project 2025 also calls for replacing the White House climate adviser with an "energy/environment" adviser who would pivot to serving the needs of the fossil fuel industry.
...The Washington-based Heritage Foundation worked with conservative organizations to produce Project 2025, which offers 920 pages of policy prescriptions to ensure the chaos of Trump’s first term is not repeated if he gets a second...
https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/trump-allies-plan-to-gut-climate-rese...
___________________________________
Your 'bonus moment of doom' for Feb. 4, 2024 ~ Bans on green energy are expanding.
"In a few cases, such as Connecticut, Tennessee and Vermont, entire states have implemented near-statewide restrictions."
From usatoday.com
https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/investigations/2024/02/04/us-counties-ban-re...
- Prof. Eliot Jacobson @EliotJacobson | 10:05 AM · Feb 4, 2024
Retired professor of mathematics and computer science...
Scott Waldman & E&E News | February 2, 2024
Former President Donald Trump’s second term could begin with a clear direction on climate policy: Trash it.
Dozens of conservative organizations have banded together to provide Trump a road map — known as Project 2025 — if he prevails in November. It outlines a series of steps that the former president could take to reverse the climate actions taken by the Biden administration...
...Trump has already said that boosting fossil fuels would be one of his top priorities. A proposed executive order in Project 2025 offers him a path for that goal, laying out a total restructuring of the U.S. Global Change Research Program to diminish its role across more than a dozen federal agencies.
Project 2025 also calls for replacing the White House climate adviser with an "energy/environment" adviser who would pivot to serving the needs of the fossil fuel industry.
...The Washington-based Heritage Foundation worked with conservative organizations to produce Project 2025, which offers 920 pages of policy prescriptions to ensure the chaos of Trump’s first term is not repeated if he gets a second...
https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/trump-allies-plan-to-gut-climate-rese...
___________________________________
Your 'bonus moment of doom' for Feb. 4, 2024 ~ Bans on green energy are expanding.
"In a few cases, such as Connecticut, Tennessee and Vermont, entire states have implemented near-statewide restrictions."
From usatoday.com
https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/investigations/2024/02/04/us-counties-ban-re...
- Prof. Eliot Jacobson @EliotJacobson | 10:05 AM · Feb 4, 2024
Retired professor of mathematics and computer science...
46margd
No Progress on Global Emissions 8 Years After Paris Climate Agreement
Ronald Bailey | From the March 2024 issue
Officials admitted at COP28 that they are not "on track" to achieving climate goals. And they are not likely to be any time soon.
...Given a boost by a strong El Niño, 2023 will be the hottest year in the instrumental record at more than 1.4 degrees Celsius above the preindustrial baseline...
https://reason.com/2024/02/05/predictably-no-progress-on-global-emissions/
------------------------------------------
United Nations Environment Programme (2023). Emissions Gap Report 2023: Broken Record – Temperatures hit new highs, yet world fails to cut emissions (again). Nairobi. 108 p. https://doi.org/10.59117/20.500.11822/43922 https://wedocs.unep.org/bitstream/handle/20.500.11822/43922/EGR2023.pdf?sequence...
Executive Summary {p XVI / 16}
"...Failure to bring global GHG (greenhouse gas) emissions in 2030 below the levels implied by current NDCs (nationally determined contributions) will make it impossible to limit warming to
1.5°C with no or limited overshoot and strongly increase the challenge of limiting warming to 2°C..."
-------------------------------------------
Prof. Eliot Jacobson @EliotJacobson | 7:43 AM · Feb 5, 2024:
Your 'moment of doom' for Feb. 5, 2024 ~ Moving goalpost alert!
"The Paris Agreement aims to hold the global average temperature increase to 2 degrees Celsius relative to preindustrial levels."
From reason.com
Article 2 Paris agreement (https://twitter.com/EliotJacobson/status/1754486300235981223/photo/1)
Ronald Bailey | From the March 2024 issue
Officials admitted at COP28 that they are not "on track" to achieving climate goals. And they are not likely to be any time soon.
...Given a boost by a strong El Niño, 2023 will be the hottest year in the instrumental record at more than 1.4 degrees Celsius above the preindustrial baseline...
https://reason.com/2024/02/05/predictably-no-progress-on-global-emissions/
------------------------------------------
United Nations Environment Programme (2023). Emissions Gap Report 2023: Broken Record – Temperatures hit new highs, yet world fails to cut emissions (again). Nairobi. 108 p. https://doi.org/10.59117/20.500.11822/43922 https://wedocs.unep.org/bitstream/handle/20.500.11822/43922/EGR2023.pdf?sequence...
Executive Summary {p XVI / 16}
"...Failure to bring global GHG (greenhouse gas) emissions in 2030 below the levels implied by current NDCs (nationally determined contributions) will make it impossible to limit warming to
1.5°C with no or limited overshoot and strongly increase the challenge of limiting warming to 2°C..."
-------------------------------------------
Prof. Eliot Jacobson @EliotJacobson | 7:43 AM · Feb 5, 2024:
Your 'moment of doom' for Feb. 5, 2024 ~ Moving goalpost alert!
"The Paris Agreement aims to hold the global average temperature increase to 2 degrees Celsius relative to preindustrial levels."
From reason.com
Article 2 Paris agreement (https://twitter.com/EliotJacobson/status/1754486300235981223/photo/1)
47margd
Insurers such as State Farm and Allstate are leaving fire- and flood-prone areas. Home values could take a hit
Lindsey Jacobson | Feb 5 20246:02 AM EST
Jeremy Porter, head of climate implications research at First Street Foundation, a nonprofit research organization that compiles comprehensive climate risk data. “They know the risk is just too high to be actuarially sound for their business”...
In its announcement, State Farm said too many buildings are being destroyed by climate catastrophes, inflation is making it too expensive to rebuild, and it can’t protect its investments any longer...
...Porter said First Street Foundation’s research in California concluded that “the moment that an individual gets a non-renewal letter from the private insurance market, they essentially lose 12% of their property value.”...
https://www.cnbc.com/2024/02/05/what-homeowners-need-to-know-as-insurers-leave-h...
Lindsey Jacobson | Feb 5 20246:02 AM EST
Jeremy Porter, head of climate implications research at First Street Foundation, a nonprofit research organization that compiles comprehensive climate risk data. “They know the risk is just too high to be actuarially sound for their business”...
In its announcement, State Farm said too many buildings are being destroyed by climate catastrophes, inflation is making it too expensive to rebuild, and it can’t protect its investments any longer...
...Porter said First Street Foundation’s research in California concluded that “the moment that an individual gets a non-renewal letter from the private insurance market, they essentially lose 12% of their property value.”...
https://www.cnbc.com/2024/02/05/what-homeowners-need-to-know-as-insurers-leave-h...
48margd
Ryan Katz-Rosene, PhD @ryankatzrosene | 10:49 AM · Feb 5, 2024:
Professor uOttawa studying contentious CLIMATE POLITICS, esp. re aviation/rail; livestock/meat; GDP/Growth! Editor @SPE_Journal
/ Host http://EcopoliticsPodcast.ca
How much a changing climate has revised the annual temperature profile in a selection of large American cities over the last 60 years:
Graphs, temperature shifts 60 years nine US cities ( https://twitter.com/ryankatzrosene/status/1754532616399683977/photo/1 )
Professor uOttawa studying contentious CLIMATE POLITICS, esp. re aviation/rail; livestock/meat; GDP/Growth! Editor @SPE_Journal
/ Host http://EcopoliticsPodcast.ca
How much a changing climate has revised the annual temperature profile in a selection of large American cities over the last 60 years:
Graphs, temperature shifts 60 years nine US cities ( https://twitter.com/ryankatzrosene/status/1754532616399683977/photo/1 )
49margd
European Commission pushes to slash emissions by 2040
DW | 6 Feb 2024
The Commission has recommended reducing net greenhouse gas emissions by 90% by 2040. A debate on the target comes amid disruptive farmers' protests in the bloc and ahead of the elections...
https://www.dw.com/en/european-commission-pushes-to-slash-emissions-by-2040/a-68...
-------------------------------------------
European Commission pushes to slash emissions by 2040
DW | 23 Feb 2024
"The EU executive dropped specific references to agriculture emissions cuts as farmers protest across Europe."
...the bloc is faced with angry farmers staging disruptive protests that criticize, among other things, what they say are overly ambitious EU climate goals.
It also comes as the EU braces for elections over the summer, where the far-right, which has been capitalizing on the farmers' protests, is likely to make gains...
https://www.dw.com/en/european-commission-pushes-to-slash-emissions-by-2040/a-68...
DW | 6 Feb 2024
The Commission has recommended reducing net greenhouse gas emissions by 90% by 2040. A debate on the target comes amid disruptive farmers' protests in the bloc and ahead of the elections...
https://www.dw.com/en/european-commission-pushes-to-slash-emissions-by-2040/a-68...
-------------------------------------------
European Commission pushes to slash emissions by 2040
DW | 23 Feb 2024
"The EU executive dropped specific references to agriculture emissions cuts as farmers protest across Europe."
...the bloc is faced with angry farmers staging disruptive protests that criticize, among other things, what they say are overly ambitious EU climate goals.
It also comes as the EU braces for elections over the summer, where the far-right, which has been capitalizing on the farmers' protests, is likely to make gains...
https://www.dw.com/en/european-commission-pushes-to-slash-emissions-by-2040/a-68...
50margd
World's first year-long breach of key 1.5C warming limit
Mark Poynting | 7 Feb 2023
...A landmark UN report in 2018 said that the risks from climate change - such as intense heatwaves, rising sea-levels and loss of wildlife - were much higher at 2C of warming than at 1.5C.
...The period from February 2023 to January 2024 reached 1.52C of warming...(El Niño has also given air temperatures an extra boost, although it would typically only do so by about 0.2C.)
...And the world's sea surface is also at its highest ever recorded average temperature - yet another sign of the widespread nature of climate records...it's particularly notable given that ocean temperatures don't normally peak for another month or so.
...At the current rate of emissions, the Paris goal of limiting warming to 1.5C as a long-term average - rather than a single year - could be crossed within the next decade.
...Prof Myles Allen of the University of Oxford and Gresham College, and a lead author of the UN's landmark 2018 report..."Every tenth of a degree of warming causes more harm than the last one"... risks of passing "tipping points"...
...Effectively halving emissions this decade is seen as particularly crucial...
https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-68110310
Mark Poynting | 7 Feb 2023
...A landmark UN report in 2018 said that the risks from climate change - such as intense heatwaves, rising sea-levels and loss of wildlife - were much higher at 2C of warming than at 1.5C.
...The period from February 2023 to January 2024 reached 1.52C of warming...(El Niño has also given air temperatures an extra boost, although it would typically only do so by about 0.2C.)
...And the world's sea surface is also at its highest ever recorded average temperature - yet another sign of the widespread nature of climate records...it's particularly notable given that ocean temperatures don't normally peak for another month or so.
...At the current rate of emissions, the Paris goal of limiting warming to 1.5C as a long-term average - rather than a single year - could be crossed within the next decade.
...Prof Myles Allen of the University of Oxford and Gresham College, and a lead author of the UN's landmark 2018 report..."Every tenth of a degree of warming causes more harm than the last one"... risks of passing "tipping points"...
...Effectively halving emissions this decade is seen as particularly crucial...
https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-68110310
51margd
An electrifying new ironmaking method could slash carbon emissions
Robert F. Service | 5 Feb 2024
Making iron, the main ingredient of steel, takes a toll on Earth’s delicate atmosphere, producing 8% of all global greenhouse gas emissions. Now, a team of chemists has come up with a way to make the business much more eco-friendly. By using electricity to convert iron ore and salt water into metallic iron and other industrially useful chemicals, researchers report today in Joule that their approach is cost effective, works well with electricity provided by wind and solar farms, and could even be carbon negative, consuming more carbon dioxide (CO2) than it produces...
https://www.science.org/content/article/electrifying-new-ironmaking-method-could...
-----------------------------------------------------
Berkley B. Noble et al. 2024. Electrochemical chlor-iron process for iron production from iron oxide and salt water. Joule. Published: February 05, 2024 DOI:https://doi.org/10.1016/j.joule.2024.01.001 https://www.cell.com/joule/fulltext/S2542-4351(24)00001-1
Robert F. Service | 5 Feb 2024
Making iron, the main ingredient of steel, takes a toll on Earth’s delicate atmosphere, producing 8% of all global greenhouse gas emissions. Now, a team of chemists has come up with a way to make the business much more eco-friendly. By using electricity to convert iron ore and salt water into metallic iron and other industrially useful chemicals, researchers report today in Joule that their approach is cost effective, works well with electricity provided by wind and solar farms, and could even be carbon negative, consuming more carbon dioxide (CO2) than it produces...
https://www.science.org/content/article/electrifying-new-ironmaking-method-could...
-----------------------------------------------------
Berkley B. Noble et al. 2024. Electrochemical chlor-iron process for iron production from iron oxide and salt water. Joule. Published: February 05, 2024 DOI:https://doi.org/10.1016/j.joule.2024.01.001 https://www.cell.com/joule/fulltext/S2542-4351(24)00001-1
52margd
Revealed: the 1,200 big methane leaks from waste dumps trashing the planet
Damian Carrington and Seán Clarke | 12 Feb 2024
The huge leaks of the potent greenhouse gas will doom climate targets, experts say, but stemming them would rapidly reduce global heating
...Prof Euan Nisbet, a methane expert at Royal Holloway University of London, said: “Big landfills make a great deal of methane but it doesn’t cost much to bulldoze soil over a stinking, burning landfill. It’s not rocket science.”
Microbes in the soil convert methane into CO2. “Then it’s lost 97% of its greenhouse impact,” Nisbet said.
Carlos Silva Filho, president of the International Solid Waste Association, said the global methane pledge made by 150 countries to cut 30% of methane emissions by 2030 could not be achieved without tackling emissions from the waste industry. “Cutting methane is the only solution to meet the global 1.5C temperature target,” he said. “If we really focus on reducing methane emissions from the waste sector, it is a gamechanger.” About 40% of the world’s waste still goes to unmanaged dumps...
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2024/feb/12/revealed-the-1200-big-methan...
Damian Carrington and Seán Clarke | 12 Feb 2024
The huge leaks of the potent greenhouse gas will doom climate targets, experts say, but stemming them would rapidly reduce global heating
...Prof Euan Nisbet, a methane expert at Royal Holloway University of London, said: “Big landfills make a great deal of methane but it doesn’t cost much to bulldoze soil over a stinking, burning landfill. It’s not rocket science.”
Microbes in the soil convert methane into CO2. “Then it’s lost 97% of its greenhouse impact,” Nisbet said.
Carlos Silva Filho, president of the International Solid Waste Association, said the global methane pledge made by 150 countries to cut 30% of methane emissions by 2030 could not be achieved without tackling emissions from the waste industry. “Cutting methane is the only solution to meet the global 1.5C temperature target,” he said. “If we really focus on reducing methane emissions from the waste sector, it is a gamechanger.” About 40% of the world’s waste still goes to unmanaged dumps...
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2024/feb/12/revealed-the-1200-big-methan...
532wonderY
>52 margd: Another part of that is to stop putting organic material into those landfills. Separating those out at the beginning of the stream and composting would be the smart way. There are municipalities that require this.
54margd
>53 2wonderY: Landfills responsible for large methane emissions often recycle via those poor kids picking through mountains of trash...
(I'll never forget a science centre display years ago: there was an intact, 30 year old HOTDOG in a core drilled from a local landfill! There will be no secrets from tomorrow's archeologists...)
(I'll never forget a science centre display years ago: there was an intact, 30 year old HOTDOG in a core drilled from a local landfill! There will be no secrets from tomorrow's archeologists...)
55margd
One of the world’s biggest cities {Mexico City} may be just months away from running out of water
Laura Paddison, Jack Guy and Fidel Gutiérrez, CNN | February 25, 2024
...The crisis has set up a fierce debate about whether the city will reach a “day zero,” where the Cutzamala system falls to such low levels that it will be unable to provide any water to the city’s residents.
Local media widely reported in early February that an official from a branch of Conagua said that without significant rain, “day zero” could arrive as early as June 26.
But authorities have since sought to assure residents there will be no day zero. In a press conference on February 14, Mexican President Andrés Manuel López Obrador said that work was underway to address the water problems. Mexico City’s mayor, Martí Batres Guadarrama, said in a recent press conference that reports of day zero were “fake news” spread by political opponents.
Conagua declined CNN’s interview requests and did not answer specific questions on the prospect of a day zero.
But many experts warn of a spiraling crisis. Mexico City could run out of water before the rainy season arrives if it carries on using it in the same way, (Fabiola Sosa-Rodríguez, head of economic growth and environment at the Metropolitan Autonomous University in Mexico City.) said. “It’s probable that we will face a day zero,” she added...
https://www.yahoo.com/news/one-world-biggest-cities-may-103023024.html
Laura Paddison, Jack Guy and Fidel Gutiérrez, CNN | February 25, 2024
...The crisis has set up a fierce debate about whether the city will reach a “day zero,” where the Cutzamala system falls to such low levels that it will be unable to provide any water to the city’s residents.
Local media widely reported in early February that an official from a branch of Conagua said that without significant rain, “day zero” could arrive as early as June 26.
But authorities have since sought to assure residents there will be no day zero. In a press conference on February 14, Mexican President Andrés Manuel López Obrador said that work was underway to address the water problems. Mexico City’s mayor, Martí Batres Guadarrama, said in a recent press conference that reports of day zero were “fake news” spread by political opponents.
Conagua declined CNN’s interview requests and did not answer specific questions on the prospect of a day zero.
But many experts warn of a spiraling crisis. Mexico City could run out of water before the rainy season arrives if it carries on using it in the same way, (Fabiola Sosa-Rodríguez, head of economic growth and environment at the Metropolitan Autonomous University in Mexico City.) said. “It’s probable that we will face a day zero,” she added...
https://www.yahoo.com/news/one-world-biggest-cities-may-103023024.html
56margd
Civilization is adding the equivalent numbers of Cork city to the total global population DAILY. It’s set to hit 8 billion this Nov and 8.5 billion by 2030. The consequences of that rise coupled with deadly global warming of 1.5C is yet to be determined.
Graph world population growth 1700-2100 ( https://twitter.com/PGDynes/status/1762097689020285342/photo/1 )
- Peter Dynes @PGDynes | 7:50 AM · Feb 26, 2024
CSO http://MEER.org - building climate resilient Adaptation/Mitigation through SRT (surface reflection technology)
Graph world population growth 1700-2100 ( https://twitter.com/PGDynes/status/1762097689020285342/photo/1 )
- Peter Dynes @PGDynes | 7:50 AM · Feb 26, 2024
CSO http://MEER.org - building climate resilient Adaptation/Mitigation through SRT (surface reflection technology)
57margd
Mark Margavage @MeteoMark | 12:06 PM · Feb 26, 2024 from Wilkes-Barre, PA
Meteorologist, Winter Weather Specialist, and Snow Storm Chaser.
El Niño Expected to Completely Collapse 😢
The prospect of a raging La Niña returning by Fall means next winter will likely be one of, if not, THE warmest ever in the Eastern US.
In fact, I’m probably going to be predicting 0” of snow for the southern portion of my forecast area (DC, Baltimore, Philadelphia, etc) based on what happened last year. On the other hand, La Niña means there’s potential for epic Lake Effect snow in Western NY near Buffalo, as we’ve seen during recent La Niña years…I’m thinking of you Hamburg NY.
This year was an El Niño so folks in southern areas of PA, MD, and NJ did get to see some snow this year, but La Niña means the average storm track will shift to the north and that means more Great Lakes Cutters and less East Coast Nor’Easters.
It is what it is.
If you live south of I-80 and you love Winter, I really hope you see something in March this season because the prospects look grim south of I-80 next season.
Don’t shoot the messenger.
~Meteorologist Mark Margavage
12:06 PM · Feb 26, 2024
from Wilkes-Barre, PA
Meteorologist, Winter Weather Specialist, and Snow Storm Chaser.
El Niño Expected to Completely Collapse 😢
The prospect of a raging La Niña returning by Fall means next winter will likely be one of, if not, THE warmest ever in the Eastern US.
In fact, I’m probably going to be predicting 0” of snow for the southern portion of my forecast area (DC, Baltimore, Philadelphia, etc) based on what happened last year. On the other hand, La Niña means there’s potential for epic Lake Effect snow in Western NY near Buffalo, as we’ve seen during recent La Niña years…I’m thinking of you Hamburg NY.
This year was an El Niño so folks in southern areas of PA, MD, and NJ did get to see some snow this year, but La Niña means the average storm track will shift to the north and that means more Great Lakes Cutters and less East Coast Nor’Easters.
It is what it is.
If you live south of I-80 and you love Winter, I really hope you see something in March this season because the prospects look grim south of I-80 next season.
Don’t shoot the messenger.
~Meteorologist Mark Margavage
12:06 PM · Feb 26, 2024
from Wilkes-Barre, PA
58margd
Jeff Berardelli @WeatherProf | 11:25 PM · Feb 26, 2024:
WFLA-TV (Tampa Bay) Chief Meteorologist and Climate Specialist. BS Atmospheric Sciences Cornell U. MA Climate Columbia U. Past CBS News NY and Miami, Tampa, WPB
All combined, from today through Wednesday morning, there are ~350 record warm temperatures in jeopardy. Many of those monthly record highs. (This includes both daytime highs and record high mins)
0:06 US weather map ( https://twitter.com/WeatherProf/status/1762333079341773139 )
WFLA-TV (Tampa Bay) Chief Meteorologist and Climate Specialist. BS Atmospheric Sciences Cornell U. MA Climate Columbia U. Past CBS News NY and Miami, Tampa, WPB
All combined, from today through Wednesday morning, there are ~350 record warm temperatures in jeopardy. Many of those monthly record highs. (This includes both daytime highs and record high mins)
0:06 US weather map ( https://twitter.com/WeatherProf/status/1762333079341773139 )
59margd
Phillip Meintzer (he/him) @PhillipMeintzer | 2:11 PM · Feb 23, 2024:
Conservation Specialist @ABWilderness. MSc Marine Biology, BSc Zoology Marxist Settler on Treaty 7 Land Trying to leave the world better than I found it.
Photos from a colleague showing a nearly empty Oldman reservoir last night. This is the current state of Alberta's watersheds during a water crisis. Water isn't just a commodity for human consumption alone. It supports entire ecosystems.
Photos
https://twitter.com/PhillipMeintzer/status/1761106470123516059/photo/1
https://twitter.com/PhillipMeintzer/status/1761106470123516059/photo/2
For those interested in how much water is allocated to different users in Alberta, see the following figure below from the Government of Alberta.
pie chart ( https://twitter.com/PhillipMeintzer/status/1761113457800425621/photo/1 )
Conservation Specialist @ABWilderness. MSc Marine Biology, BSc Zoology Marxist Settler on Treaty 7 Land Trying to leave the world better than I found it.
Photos from a colleague showing a nearly empty Oldman reservoir last night. This is the current state of Alberta's watersheds during a water crisis. Water isn't just a commodity for human consumption alone. It supports entire ecosystems.
Photos
https://twitter.com/PhillipMeintzer/status/1761106470123516059/photo/1
https://twitter.com/PhillipMeintzer/status/1761106470123516059/photo/2
For those interested in how much water is allocated to different users in Alberta, see the following figure below from the Government of Alberta.
pie chart ( https://twitter.com/PhillipMeintzer/status/1761113457800425621/photo/1 )
60margd
Peter Dynes @PGDynes | 3:08 AM · Feb 27, 2024:
CSO http://MEER.org - building climate resilient Adaptation/Mitigation through SRT (surface reflection technology)
The temperature anomalies over the #US for this time of year is incredible. Wet bulb temperatures may well be possible in places like #Texas later this summer if things keep going the way they are.
US weather map ( https://twitter.com/PGDynes/status/1762389189054636509/photo/1 )
-------------------------------------------------------
Why you need to worry about the ‘wet-bulb temperature’
Jocelyn Timperley | Sun 31 Jul 2022
Scientists think we need to pay attention to a measure of heat and humidity – and it’s edging closer to the limits of human survivability
...Wet-bulb temperature (WBT) combines dry air temperature (as you’d see on a thermometer) with humidity – in essence, it is a measure of heat-stress conditions on humans.
The term comes from how it is measured. If you slide a wet cloth over the bulb of a thermometer, the evaporating water from the cloth will cool the thermometer down. This lower temperature is the WBT, which cannot go above the dry temperature. If humidity in the surrounding air is high, however – meaning the air is already more saturated with water – less evaporation will occur, so the WBT will be closer to the dry temperature.
Humidity and temperature are not the only things that affect a person’s body temperature: solar radiation and wind speed are other factors. But WBT is especially important as a measure of indoor environments, where deaths often occur in heatwaves, says W Larry Kenney, a physiology professor at Penn State University.
When do wet-bulb temperatures get dangerous?
Concern often centres on the “threshold” or “critical” WBT for humans, the point at which a healthy person could survive for only six hours. This is usually considered to be 35C, approximately equivalent to an air temperature of 40C with a relative humidity of 75%. ...
Humans usually regulate their internal body temperature by sweating, but above the wet-bulb temperature, we can no longer cool down this way, leading our body temperature to rise steadily. This essentially marks a limit to human adaptability to extreme heat – if we cannot escape the conditions, our body’s core can rise beyond the survivable range and organs can start failing.
The oft-cited 35C value comes from a 2010 theoretical study. However, research co-authored by Kenney* this year found that the real threshold our bodies can tolerate could be far lower. “Our data is actual human subject data and shows that the critical wet-bulb temperature is closer to 31.5C,” he says....
https://www.theguardian.com/science/2022/jul/31/why-you-need-to-worry-about-the-...
----------------------------------------------------
* Daniel J. Vecellio et al. 2021. Evaluating the 35°C wet-bulb temperature adaptability threshold for young, healthy subjects (PSU HEAT Project). J of Applied Physiology, 28 Jan 2022. https://doi.org/10.1152/japplphysiol.00738.2021 https://journals.physiology.org/doi/full/10.1152/japplphysiol.00738.2021
CSO http://MEER.org - building climate resilient Adaptation/Mitigation through SRT (surface reflection technology)
The temperature anomalies over the #US for this time of year is incredible. Wet bulb temperatures may well be possible in places like #Texas later this summer if things keep going the way they are.
US weather map ( https://twitter.com/PGDynes/status/1762389189054636509/photo/1 )
-------------------------------------------------------
Why you need to worry about the ‘wet-bulb temperature’
Jocelyn Timperley | Sun 31 Jul 2022
Scientists think we need to pay attention to a measure of heat and humidity – and it’s edging closer to the limits of human survivability
...Wet-bulb temperature (WBT) combines dry air temperature (as you’d see on a thermometer) with humidity – in essence, it is a measure of heat-stress conditions on humans.
The term comes from how it is measured. If you slide a wet cloth over the bulb of a thermometer, the evaporating water from the cloth will cool the thermometer down. This lower temperature is the WBT, which cannot go above the dry temperature. If humidity in the surrounding air is high, however – meaning the air is already more saturated with water – less evaporation will occur, so the WBT will be closer to the dry temperature.
Humidity and temperature are not the only things that affect a person’s body temperature: solar radiation and wind speed are other factors. But WBT is especially important as a measure of indoor environments, where deaths often occur in heatwaves, says W Larry Kenney, a physiology professor at Penn State University.
When do wet-bulb temperatures get dangerous?
Concern often centres on the “threshold” or “critical” WBT for humans, the point at which a healthy person could survive for only six hours. This is usually considered to be 35C, approximately equivalent to an air temperature of 40C with a relative humidity of 75%. ...
Humans usually regulate their internal body temperature by sweating, but above the wet-bulb temperature, we can no longer cool down this way, leading our body temperature to rise steadily. This essentially marks a limit to human adaptability to extreme heat – if we cannot escape the conditions, our body’s core can rise beyond the survivable range and organs can start failing.
The oft-cited 35C value comes from a 2010 theoretical study. However, research co-authored by Kenney* this year found that the real threshold our bodies can tolerate could be far lower. “Our data is actual human subject data and shows that the critical wet-bulb temperature is closer to 31.5C,” he says....
https://www.theguardian.com/science/2022/jul/31/why-you-need-to-worry-about-the-...
----------------------------------------------------
* Daniel J. Vecellio et al. 2021. Evaluating the 35°C wet-bulb temperature adaptability threshold for young, healthy subjects (PSU HEAT Project). J of Applied Physiology, 28 Jan 2022. https://doi.org/10.1152/japplphysiol.00738.2021 https://journals.physiology.org/doi/full/10.1152/japplphysiol.00738.2021
61margd
keV كيفين Pluck 🇵🇸 Alarmist Plant Murderer @kevpluck | 12:58 AM · Feb 27, 2024
Latest NASA GRACE data showing West Antarctic ice loss literally going off the scale!...
image w Antarctica ( https://twitter.com/kevpluck/status/1762356418769043721/photo/1 )
Source: https://svs.gsfc.nasa.gov/31166
0:38 Greenland & Antarctica ice mass 2002-2023 ( https://twitter.com/kevpluck/status/1762356423336640569 )
Latest NASA GRACE data showing West Antarctic ice loss literally going off the scale!...
image w Antarctica ( https://twitter.com/kevpluck/status/1762356418769043721/photo/1 )
Source: https://svs.gsfc.nasa.gov/31166
0:38 Greenland & Antarctica ice mass 2002-2023 ( https://twitter.com/kevpluck/status/1762356423336640569 )
62margd
Vincent Rajkumar @VincentRK | 6:47 AM · Feb 27, 2024:
Editor-in-Chief, Blood Cancer Journal; Oncologist; Cancer Research
Bob Kyle at 95 says to me a few weeks ago, “I’ve been in Rochester, Minnesota for 70 years. Never seen a winter like this.”
It has been the mildest winter ever for Minnesota.
From mprnews.org
https://www.mprnews.org/story/2024/02/20/50s-to-near-60-degrees-will-lock-in-the...
Editor-in-Chief, Blood Cancer Journal; Oncologist; Cancer Research
Bob Kyle at 95 says to me a few weeks ago, “I’ve been in Rochester, Minnesota for 70 years. Never seen a winter like this.”
It has been the mildest winter ever for Minnesota.
From mprnews.org
https://www.mprnews.org/story/2024/02/20/50s-to-near-60-degrees-will-lock-in-the...
63margd
Thierry Goose @ThierryGooseBC | 8:44 PM · Feb 26, 2024
Worldwide weather news from Vancouver, BC 🇨🇦. Amateur climatologist.
🌡️100°F/37.8°C recorded today in Killeen (Fort Hood/Gray AAF), TX 🇺🇸!
That's only 3°F/1.6°C below the #USA February record.
Many monthly records broken in #Nebraska (80°F Omaha), #Iowa (78°F Des Moines), #Minnesota (65°F Minneapolis), etc. #TXwx
Map, US temperature ( https://twitter.com/ThierryGooseBC/status/1762292604513697855/photo/1 )
Table, temperatures Ft Hood, TX ( https://twitter.com/ThierryGooseBC/status/1762292604513697855/photo/2 )
Quote
NWS Weather Prediction Center @NWSWPC | 8:30 PM · Feb 26, 2024:
National High/Low temps for Monday February 26, 2024:
100 at Killeen (Fort Hood/Gray AAF), TX;
5 at 8 miles southeast of East Glacier Park, MT
http://go.usa.gov/cu5tP
Worldwide weather news from Vancouver, BC 🇨🇦. Amateur climatologist.
🌡️100°F/37.8°C recorded today in Killeen (Fort Hood/Gray AAF), TX 🇺🇸!
That's only 3°F/1.6°C below the #USA February record.
Many monthly records broken in #Nebraska (80°F Omaha), #Iowa (78°F Des Moines), #Minnesota (65°F Minneapolis), etc. #TXwx
Map, US temperature ( https://twitter.com/ThierryGooseBC/status/1762292604513697855/photo/1 )
Table, temperatures Ft Hood, TX ( https://twitter.com/ThierryGooseBC/status/1762292604513697855/photo/2 )
Quote
NWS Weather Prediction Center @NWSWPC | 8:30 PM · Feb 26, 2024:
National High/Low temps for Monday February 26, 2024:
100 at Killeen (Fort Hood/Gray AAF), TX;
5 at 8 miles southeast of East Glacier Park, MT
http://go.usa.gov/cu5tP
64margd
Peter Dynes @PGDynes | 4:52 AM · Feb 28, 2024
The Scorch Trials continue. #Australia #Climate #Heatwave #TheUninhabitableEarth
Map Australia, 2m temperature C, 28 Feb 2024 ( https://twitter.com/PGDynes/status/1762777775977517454/photo/1 )
The Scorch Trials continue. #Australia #Climate #Heatwave #TheUninhabitableEarth
Map Australia, 2m temperature C, 28 Feb 2024 ( https://twitter.com/PGDynes/status/1762777775977517454/photo/1 )
65margd
Alan Urban @CollapseSurvive | 9:00 PM · Feb 28, 2024:
This is why we're doomed. Even if governments took drastic action to stop climate change, the people would protest and throw them out of office.
Climate Measures Risk Sparking Social Unrest, German Agency Warn
Petra Sorge | February 28, 2024
The European Union is at risk of widespread backlash against its climate agenda unless politicians do more to blunt the effects of rising carbon prices on low-income households, according to the head of Germany’s Environment Agency.
In some countries, farmers have taken to the streets to protest against climate policies that they say will threaten their existence. Polls also show that right-wing parties opposed to climate action are gaining traction among voters already dealing with soaring costs of living...
https://bloom.bg/3P07cvo
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-02-28/climate-measures-risk-sparkin...
This is why we're doomed. Even if governments took drastic action to stop climate change, the people would protest and throw them out of office.
Climate Measures Risk Sparking Social Unrest, German Agency Warn
Petra Sorge | February 28, 2024
The European Union is at risk of widespread backlash against its climate agenda unless politicians do more to blunt the effects of rising carbon prices on low-income households, according to the head of Germany’s Environment Agency.
In some countries, farmers have taken to the streets to protest against climate policies that they say will threaten their existence. Polls also show that right-wing parties opposed to climate action are gaining traction among voters already dealing with soaring costs of living...
https://bloom.bg/3P07cvo
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-02-28/climate-measures-risk-sparkin...
66margd
it's only a matter of when, not if, the world will experience a famine unlike any in modern times. there's no way agriculture can sustain output with all the floods, fires, droughts, and changing conditions.
- little grey mouse 🐭 @mouse_math | 10:09 PM · Feb 29, 2024
____________________________________
Vietnam’s Mekong Delta ‘rice bowl’ cracks in monster February heatwave
Associated Press | 29 Feb, 2024
Southern Vietnam’s hot weather peaks in April or May, with temperatures around 39 degrees Celsius, but February saw ‘abnormal’ highs of 38 degrees
More than 80 canals have dried up in one district of Ca Mau province, where agricultural production is entirely reliant on rainwater...
https://www.scmp.com/news/asia/southeast-asia/article/3253540/vietnams-mekong-de...
- little grey mouse 🐭 @mouse_math | 10:09 PM · Feb 29, 2024
____________________________________
Vietnam’s Mekong Delta ‘rice bowl’ cracks in monster February heatwave
Associated Press | 29 Feb, 2024
Southern Vietnam’s hot weather peaks in April or May, with temperatures around 39 degrees Celsius, but February saw ‘abnormal’ highs of 38 degrees
More than 80 canals have dried up in one district of Ca Mau province, where agricultural production is entirely reliant on rainwater...
https://www.scmp.com/news/asia/southeast-asia/article/3253540/vietnams-mekong-de...
67margd
Scientists Are Freaking Out About Ocean Temperatures
David Gelles | Feb. 27, 2024
From his office at the University of Miami, Brian McNoldy, an expert in hurricane formation, is tracking the latest temperature data from the North Atlantic with a mixture of concern and bewilderment.
For the past year, oceans around the world have been substantially warmer than usual. Last month was the hottest January on record in the world’s oceans, and temperatures have continued to rise since then. The heat wave has been especially pronounced in the North Atlantic.
“The North Atlantic has been record-breakingly warm for almost a year now,” McNoldy said. “It’s just astonishing. Like, it doesn’t seem real.”
Across the unusually warm Atlantic, in Cambridge, England, Rob Larter, a marine scientist who tracks polar ice levels, is equally perplexed.
“It’s quite scary, partly because I’m not hearing any scientists that have a convincing explanation of why it is we’ve got such a departure,” he said. “We’re used to having a fairly good handle on things. But the impression at the moment is that things have gone further and faster than we expected. That’s an uncomfortable place as a scientist to be.”
Spin the globe to the south, and the situation is similarly dire.
“The sea ice around the Antarctic just not growing,” said Matthew England, a professor at the University of New South Wales who studies ocean currents. “The temperature’s just going off the charts. It’s like an omen of the future.”...
https://web.archive.org/web/20240227190549/https://www.nytimes.com/2024/02/27/cl...
David Gelles | Feb. 27, 2024
From his office at the University of Miami, Brian McNoldy, an expert in hurricane formation, is tracking the latest temperature data from the North Atlantic with a mixture of concern and bewilderment.
For the past year, oceans around the world have been substantially warmer than usual. Last month was the hottest January on record in the world’s oceans, and temperatures have continued to rise since then. The heat wave has been especially pronounced in the North Atlantic.
“The North Atlantic has been record-breakingly warm for almost a year now,” McNoldy said. “It’s just astonishing. Like, it doesn’t seem real.”
Across the unusually warm Atlantic, in Cambridge, England, Rob Larter, a marine scientist who tracks polar ice levels, is equally perplexed.
“It’s quite scary, partly because I’m not hearing any scientists that have a convincing explanation of why it is we’ve got such a departure,” he said. “We’re used to having a fairly good handle on things. But the impression at the moment is that things have gone further and faster than we expected. That’s an uncomfortable place as a scientist to be.”
Spin the globe to the south, and the situation is similarly dire.
“The sea ice around the Antarctic just not growing,” said Matthew England, a professor at the University of New South Wales who studies ocean currents. “The temperature’s just going off the charts. It’s like an omen of the future.”...
https://web.archive.org/web/20240227190549/https://www.nytimes.com/2024/02/27/cl...
68margd
Jeff Berardelli {Tampa weatherman} @WeatherProf | 8:58 PM · Feb 29, 2024:
CanSIPS {Canadian Seasonal to Interannual Prediction System} to Caribbean and FL: Move.
Quote
Steve Copertino {private meteorologist} @TheSteveCop | 8:29 PM · Feb 29, 2024:
CanSIPS has just about as strong of a signal for an active hurricane season you'll ever see on a seasonal model.
Opening bid on some of these seasonal outlooks should be quite high.
Maps
https://twitter.com/TheSteveCop/status/1763376065026597201/photo/1
https://twitter.com/TheSteveCop/status/1763376065026597201/photo/2
https://twitter.com/TheSteveCop/status/1763376065026597201/photo/3
Quote
Andy Hazelton @AndyHazelton | 8:14 PM · Feb 29, 2024:
Associate Scientist at UM/CIMAS and NOAA AOML/HRD
Latest CanSips trends towards an even warmer Atlantic and cooler ENSO for peak hurricane season. Honestly some of these climate model forecasts are starting to look silly with the favorable setup they're showing for the Atlantic. A few months to go, but definitely some 🚨
Map sea surface anomaly ( https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1763372182904680527/photo/1 )
CanSIPS {Canadian Seasonal to Interannual Prediction System} to Caribbean and FL: Move.
Quote
Steve Copertino {private meteorologist} @TheSteveCop | 8:29 PM · Feb 29, 2024:
CanSIPS has just about as strong of a signal for an active hurricane season you'll ever see on a seasonal model.
Opening bid on some of these seasonal outlooks should be quite high.
Maps
https://twitter.com/TheSteveCop/status/1763376065026597201/photo/1
https://twitter.com/TheSteveCop/status/1763376065026597201/photo/2
https://twitter.com/TheSteveCop/status/1763376065026597201/photo/3
Quote
Andy Hazelton @AndyHazelton | 8:14 PM · Feb 29, 2024:
Associate Scientist at UM/CIMAS and NOAA AOML/HRD
Latest CanSips trends towards an even warmer Atlantic and cooler ENSO for peak hurricane season. Honestly some of these climate model forecasts are starting to look silly with the favorable setup they're showing for the Atlantic. A few months to go, but definitely some 🚨
Map sea surface anomaly ( https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1763372182904680527/photo/1 )
69margd
Emergency atmospheric geoengineering wouldn't save the oceans
Rebecca Dzombak | 29 Feb 2024
Oceans, especially the deep oceans, absorb and lose heat more slowly than the atmosphere, so an intervention that cools the air would not be able to cool the deep ocean on the same timescale...
... study suggests that while an abrupt aerosol injection later this century could provide some ocean cooling, it wouldn't be enough to nudge "stubborn" ocean patterns such as Atlantic meridional overturning circulation, which some research finds is already weakening...
https://phys.org/news/2024-02-emergency-atmospheric-geoengineering-wouldnt-ocean...
-----------------------------------------------
Daniel Pflüger et al 2024. Flawed Emergency Intervention: Slow Ocean Response to Abrupt Stratospheric Aerosol Injection, Geophysical Research Letters (2024). DOI: 10.1029/2023GL106132 https://phys.org/journals/geophysical-research-letters/
Rebecca Dzombak | 29 Feb 2024
Oceans, especially the deep oceans, absorb and lose heat more slowly than the atmosphere, so an intervention that cools the air would not be able to cool the deep ocean on the same timescale...
... study suggests that while an abrupt aerosol injection later this century could provide some ocean cooling, it wouldn't be enough to nudge "stubborn" ocean patterns such as Atlantic meridional overturning circulation, which some research finds is already weakening...
https://phys.org/news/2024-02-emergency-atmospheric-geoengineering-wouldnt-ocean...
-----------------------------------------------
Daniel Pflüger et al 2024. Flawed Emergency Intervention: Slow Ocean Response to Abrupt Stratospheric Aerosol Injection, Geophysical Research Letters (2024). DOI: 10.1029/2023GL106132 https://phys.org/journals/geophysical-research-letters/
70margd
Peter Dynes @PGDynes | 10:17 AM · Mar 1, 2024:
CSO http://MEER.org - building climate resilient Adaptation/Mitigation through SRT (surface reflection technology)
The edges of Greenland & Antarctica are disintegrating in real-time. You're watching the #flooding of the world's major coastal cities inside 50 years. Low-lying islands inundated. Places like the #Mekong Delta, which feeds millions, will no longer produce #freshwater #crops.
0:38 Greenland Antarctica ice 2002-2023(https://twitter.com/PGDynes/status/1763584331576947048)
CSO http://MEER.org - building climate resilient Adaptation/Mitigation through SRT (surface reflection technology)
The edges of Greenland & Antarctica are disintegrating in real-time. You're watching the #flooding of the world's major coastal cities inside 50 years. Low-lying islands inundated. Places like the #Mekong Delta, which feeds millions, will no longer produce #freshwater #crops.
0:38 Greenland Antarctica ice 2002-2023(https://twitter.com/PGDynes/status/1763584331576947048)
71margd
Texas battles historic wildfires as snow covers scorched land in the Panhandle
SEAN MURPHY and JIM VERTUNO | March 1, 2024
STINNETT, Texas (AP) — A dusting of snow covered a desolate landscape of scorched prairie, dead cattle and burned out homes in the Texas Panhandle on Thursday, giving firefighters brief relief in their desperate efforts to corral a blaze that has grown into the largest in state history.
The Smokehouse Creek fire grew to nearly 1,700 square miles (4,400 square kilometers). It merged with another fire and is just 3% contained, according to the Texas A&M Forest Service...
https://apnews.com/article/texas-panhandle-fire-evacuations-cbbb6a279bef1bd02072...
------------------------------------------------
Record winter heat, dry air helped drive Panhandle fire risk
Emily Foxhall | March 1, 2024
Texas has a wildfire season in winter, but climate change is extending it, scientists say.
Meteorologists at the National Weather Service office in Amarillo saw signs of possible danger in the Panhandle days before the first fire sparked. The previous week was dry and hot for February — the cities of Amarillo and Borger broke records for high temperatures as they respectively hit 83 and 85 degrees. Then a breezy cold front followed.
Forecasters on Sunday expected the days ahead to bring low relative humidity, which dries out grass and other vegetation in the Panhandle region that was already browned by winter. With a cold front blowing in, strong winds would soon gust as high as 50 to 60 mph, which could fan flames and cause them to spread. The weather was hot again. Borger tied another record high.
On Monday, their fears were realized. The first fires started as temperatures again set high records. And on Tuesday, as the front blew in, winds that had been blowing to the east shifted and pushed those long fire lines south...
https://www.texastribune.org/2024/03/01/texas-wildfires-climate-change/
SEAN MURPHY and JIM VERTUNO | March 1, 2024
STINNETT, Texas (AP) — A dusting of snow covered a desolate landscape of scorched prairie, dead cattle and burned out homes in the Texas Panhandle on Thursday, giving firefighters brief relief in their desperate efforts to corral a blaze that has grown into the largest in state history.
The Smokehouse Creek fire grew to nearly 1,700 square miles (4,400 square kilometers). It merged with another fire and is just 3% contained, according to the Texas A&M Forest Service...
https://apnews.com/article/texas-panhandle-fire-evacuations-cbbb6a279bef1bd02072...
------------------------------------------------
Record winter heat, dry air helped drive Panhandle fire risk
Emily Foxhall | March 1, 2024
Texas has a wildfire season in winter, but climate change is extending it, scientists say.
Meteorologists at the National Weather Service office in Amarillo saw signs of possible danger in the Panhandle days before the first fire sparked. The previous week was dry and hot for February — the cities of Amarillo and Borger broke records for high temperatures as they respectively hit 83 and 85 degrees. Then a breezy cold front followed.
Forecasters on Sunday expected the days ahead to bring low relative humidity, which dries out grass and other vegetation in the Panhandle region that was already browned by winter. With a cold front blowing in, strong winds would soon gust as high as 50 to 60 mph, which could fan flames and cause them to spread. The weather was hot again. Borger tied another record high.
On Monday, their fears were realized. The first fires started as temperatures again set high records. And on Tuesday, as the front blew in, winds that had been blowing to the east shifted and pushed those long fire lines south...
https://www.texastribune.org/2024/03/01/texas-wildfires-climate-change/
72margd
Africa’s Tropical Glaciers Have Shrunk by 90 Percent, Research Shows
E360 Digest | February 26, 2024
Glaciers atop Mount Kenya, Mount Kilimanjaro, and the Rwenzori Mountains in East Africa are shrinking at an alarming rate as the region heats up.
These glaciers, which sit close to the equator, are highly vulnerable to warming. In the last two decades they have lost roughly half their area, and since the turn of the last century, they have shrunk by 90 percent...
https://e360.yale.edu/digest/africa-tropical-glaciers-climate-change
-------------------------------------------
Anne Hinzmann et al 2024. Tropical glacier loss in East Africa: recent areal extents on Kilimanjaro, Mount Kenya, and in the Rwenzori Range from high-resolution remote sensing data (Letter). Environ. Res.: Climate 3 011003. Open access. DOI 10.1088/2752-5295/ad1fd7 https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/2752-5295/ad1fd7
Abstract
Over recent decades, the retreat of Kilimanjaro's glaciers has been portrayed as a beacon of climate change. The decline of glaciers over the 20th century, however, is evident for all tropical glaciers in East Africa, including those found on Mount Kenya and in the Rwenzori Range. More recent studies have focused on Kilimanjaro and Mount Kenya but the Rwenzori Range has not been considered for nearly two decades, which introduces an uncertainty about the remaining glacierization in East Africa. Therefore, the present study provides insights into the most recent glacier extents of all three mountain regions using a manual, multitemporal analysis of high-resolution satellite images for the years 2021/2022. The glacierization in East Africa is estimated to be 1.36 km2, with a glacier area of 0.98 km2 on Kilimanjaro, 0.069 km2 on Mount Kenya and 0.38 km2 in the Rwenzori Range. The uncertainty is determined to be within 12.5%. Compared to previous estimations, the overall area has declined by more than a half of its early 21st century extent. Being mainly controlled by high-altitude hygric seasonality, these glaciers are particularly valuable indicators of tropical climate variability and climate change.
_____________________________________
Paper • The following article is Open access
Intensifying human-driven heatwaves characteristics and heat related mortality over Africa
Paul Adigun et al. 2024. Intensifying human-driven heatwaves characteristics and heat related mortality over Africa (paper). Environmental Research: Climate, Volume 3, Number 1 Open access. DOI 10.1088/2752-5295/ad1f41 https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/2752-5295/ad1f41
Abstract
Heatwaves in Africa are expected to increase in frequency, number, magnitude, and duration. This is significant because the health burden is only expected to worsen as heatwaves intensify. Inadequate knowledge of the climate's impact on health in developing nations such as Africa makes safeguarding the health of vulnerable groups at risk challenging. In this study, we quantify possible roles of human activity in heatwave intensification during the historical period, and project the future risk of heat-related mortality in Africa under two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP26) and (RCP60). Heatwaves are measured using the Excess Heat Factor (EHF); the daily minimum (Tn) and maximum (Tx) are used to compute the EHF index; by averaging Tx and Tn. Two heat factors, significance and acclimatization are combined in the EHF to quantify the total excess heat. Our results confirm the intensification of heatwaves across Africa in recent years is due anthropogenic activity (increase in greenhouse gas concentration and changes in land use). The Return event highlights the potential future escalation of heatwave conditions brought on by climate change and socioeconomic variables. RCP26 projects a substantial rise in heat-related mortality, with an increase from about 9000 mortality per year in the historical period to approximately 23 000 mortality per year at the end of the 21st century. Similarly, RCP60 showed an even more significant increase, with heat-related mortality increasing to about 43 000 annually. This study highlights the potentially growing risk of intensifying heatwaves in Africa under different emission scenarios. It projects a significant increase in heatwave magnitude, number, duration, frequency, and heat-related mortality. Africa's low adaptive capacity will amplify the impact, emphasizing the need for emissions reduction and effective adaptation measures.
...5. Conclusion
In this study, our result reveals a concerning trend of increasing magnitude, frequency, duration, and number of heatwaves in Africa. The historical period (1980–2014) has already witnessed severe heatwaves, predominantly affecting the continent's northern, sub-Saharan, and southern regions. Looking ahead, under the SSP245 and SSP585 emission scenarios {Shared Socioeconomic Pathways-- SSP245 to represent a moderate mitigation scenario and SSP585 to represent a high emission scenario}, it is projected that the severity of heatwave magnitude will continue to escalate towards the end of the century. Super extreme heatwaves are expected to become more common, affecting over 70% of the African continent annually. Heatwave duration varied across regions during the historical period, averaging around one week for the entire continent. However, the future projections indicate a substantial increase in HWD, particularly in northern and eastern Africa. HWD is expected to rise between 11days to over a month, with certain regions experiencing heatwave episodes lasting several weeks. This extended duration of heatwaves poses significant challenges to various sectors and emphasizes the urgency for adaptation measures. The frequency of heatwave days (HWF) is also predicted to rise significantly. The historical period saw an average of 20–23 heatwave days per year, but by 2050, this is expected to increase to around 51 heatwave days per year under the SSP245 scenario. By the end of the 21st century, the HWF could reach approximately 55 heatwave days per year under SSP245 and 80 heatwave days per year under SSP585. These findings highlight the alarming increase in the frequency and duration of heat waves, especially under high-emission scenarios. Return periods further confirm the intensification of heatwave characteristics in the future climate. Although the changes in heatwave magnitude (HWM) between historical and projected periods are relatively minimal, they still pose significant risks to human health, agriculture, and ecosystems. Adaptation measures and sustainable practices are crucial to address Africa's challenges of extreme heat. The projected changes under different emission scenarios emphasize the urgent need for proactive measures to mitigate the impacts of heatwaves on vulnerable populations, ecosystems, and key sectors. Understanding the characteristics of heatwaves is crucial for informed decision-making, policy formulation, and planning for climate change adaptation in Africa. The study's results highlight the increasing threat of heat-related mortality in Africa due to climate change which is consistent with previous study (Scovronick et al 2018, Vicedo-Cabrera et al 2021). The analysis of heat-related mortality data from different climate models reveals significant variations in annual mortality estimates, with the highest numbers observed in EAF {East Africa} and WAF {West Africa}. However, all regions of Africa are vulnerable to heat-related mortality. Under the RCP26 {Representative Concentration Pathways--daily minimum?} the projected increase in annual heat-related mortality is substantial, with the MME estimating a rate of 23 000 mortality per year. These findings underscore the urgent need for adaptation and mitigation strategies to address Africa's escalating risks of heat-related mortality. The projected increase in heat related mortality in africa is primarily due to rising temperatures and the growing population in the region (Ebi et al 2021, Rohat et al 2019). Vulnerability to heat stress is compounded by factors such as high population density, limited healthcare access, and low adaptive capacity (Mushore et al 2018, Voelkel et al 2018). The study's results align with previous research, confirming that climate change poses a significant threat to African public health (Sarfaty et al 2014, Opoku et al 2021, Sy et al 2022). The projected rise in heat-related mortality emphasizes the importance of effective emissions reductions and adaptation measures to mitigate the impacts. Without timely action, it is estimated that heat-related mortality in Africa could reach 43 000 mortality per year by the end of the century under the RCP60 {Representative Concentration Pathways--daily maximum??}scenario. Policymakers, healthcare providers, and communities must prioritize measures that address heat-related health risks, including heatwave early warning systems, improved access to healthcare, and heat mitigation strategies in urban areas. By implementing proactive measures, Africa can work towards reducing the devastating impacts of heatwaves on human lives and maintaining the well-being of its populations in a changing climate. A limitation of the current modeling approach is the assumption of constant relative risk over time without accounting for potential acclimatization to heat. Physiological adaptations and societal changes could modify vulnerability over time as populations are increasingly exposed to higher temperatures (Rupert Stuart-Smith et al 2023). For instance, increased access to air conditioning and heat warning systems may reduce risks, causing mortality projection curves to flatten compared to a fixed temperature-mortality relationship. Capturing these acclimatization dynamics could improve projections and avoid overestimating future impacts. Assessing changes in vulnerability and developing models that allow the temperature-mortality curve to evolve based on adaptation efforts would be valuable areas for advancement. Studies incorporating time-varying exposure-response relationships are needed to provide more realistic heat-mortality projections in an adapting society.
{margd: Previous post id'd need for more infrastructure in order to provide advance forecasts. Also, "wet bulb" post suggests that there are limits to human adaptation to heat in areas of high humidity.}
E360 Digest | February 26, 2024
Glaciers atop Mount Kenya, Mount Kilimanjaro, and the Rwenzori Mountains in East Africa are shrinking at an alarming rate as the region heats up.
These glaciers, which sit close to the equator, are highly vulnerable to warming. In the last two decades they have lost roughly half their area, and since the turn of the last century, they have shrunk by 90 percent...
https://e360.yale.edu/digest/africa-tropical-glaciers-climate-change
-------------------------------------------
Anne Hinzmann et al 2024. Tropical glacier loss in East Africa: recent areal extents on Kilimanjaro, Mount Kenya, and in the Rwenzori Range from high-resolution remote sensing data (Letter). Environ. Res.: Climate 3 011003. Open access. DOI 10.1088/2752-5295/ad1fd7 https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/2752-5295/ad1fd7
Abstract
Over recent decades, the retreat of Kilimanjaro's glaciers has been portrayed as a beacon of climate change. The decline of glaciers over the 20th century, however, is evident for all tropical glaciers in East Africa, including those found on Mount Kenya and in the Rwenzori Range. More recent studies have focused on Kilimanjaro and Mount Kenya but the Rwenzori Range has not been considered for nearly two decades, which introduces an uncertainty about the remaining glacierization in East Africa. Therefore, the present study provides insights into the most recent glacier extents of all three mountain regions using a manual, multitemporal analysis of high-resolution satellite images for the years 2021/2022. The glacierization in East Africa is estimated to be 1.36 km2, with a glacier area of 0.98 km2 on Kilimanjaro, 0.069 km2 on Mount Kenya and 0.38 km2 in the Rwenzori Range. The uncertainty is determined to be within 12.5%. Compared to previous estimations, the overall area has declined by more than a half of its early 21st century extent. Being mainly controlled by high-altitude hygric seasonality, these glaciers are particularly valuable indicators of tropical climate variability and climate change.
_____________________________________
Paper • The following article is Open access
Intensifying human-driven heatwaves characteristics and heat related mortality over Africa
Paul Adigun et al. 2024. Intensifying human-driven heatwaves characteristics and heat related mortality over Africa (paper). Environmental Research: Climate, Volume 3, Number 1 Open access. DOI 10.1088/2752-5295/ad1f41 https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/2752-5295/ad1f41
Abstract
Heatwaves in Africa are expected to increase in frequency, number, magnitude, and duration. This is significant because the health burden is only expected to worsen as heatwaves intensify. Inadequate knowledge of the climate's impact on health in developing nations such as Africa makes safeguarding the health of vulnerable groups at risk challenging. In this study, we quantify possible roles of human activity in heatwave intensification during the historical period, and project the future risk of heat-related mortality in Africa under two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP26) and (RCP60). Heatwaves are measured using the Excess Heat Factor (EHF); the daily minimum (Tn) and maximum (Tx) are used to compute the EHF index; by averaging Tx and Tn. Two heat factors, significance and acclimatization are combined in the EHF to quantify the total excess heat. Our results confirm the intensification of heatwaves across Africa in recent years is due anthropogenic activity (increase in greenhouse gas concentration and changes in land use). The Return event highlights the potential future escalation of heatwave conditions brought on by climate change and socioeconomic variables. RCP26 projects a substantial rise in heat-related mortality, with an increase from about 9000 mortality per year in the historical period to approximately 23 000 mortality per year at the end of the 21st century. Similarly, RCP60 showed an even more significant increase, with heat-related mortality increasing to about 43 000 annually. This study highlights the potentially growing risk of intensifying heatwaves in Africa under different emission scenarios. It projects a significant increase in heatwave magnitude, number, duration, frequency, and heat-related mortality. Africa's low adaptive capacity will amplify the impact, emphasizing the need for emissions reduction and effective adaptation measures.
...5. Conclusion
In this study, our result reveals a concerning trend of increasing magnitude, frequency, duration, and number of heatwaves in Africa. The historical period (1980–2014) has already witnessed severe heatwaves, predominantly affecting the continent's northern, sub-Saharan, and southern regions. Looking ahead, under the SSP245 and SSP585 emission scenarios {Shared Socioeconomic Pathways-- SSP245 to represent a moderate mitigation scenario and SSP585 to represent a high emission scenario}, it is projected that the severity of heatwave magnitude will continue to escalate towards the end of the century. Super extreme heatwaves are expected to become more common, affecting over 70% of the African continent annually. Heatwave duration varied across regions during the historical period, averaging around one week for the entire continent. However, the future projections indicate a substantial increase in HWD, particularly in northern and eastern Africa. HWD is expected to rise between 11days to over a month, with certain regions experiencing heatwave episodes lasting several weeks. This extended duration of heatwaves poses significant challenges to various sectors and emphasizes the urgency for adaptation measures. The frequency of heatwave days (HWF) is also predicted to rise significantly. The historical period saw an average of 20–23 heatwave days per year, but by 2050, this is expected to increase to around 51 heatwave days per year under the SSP245 scenario. By the end of the 21st century, the HWF could reach approximately 55 heatwave days per year under SSP245 and 80 heatwave days per year under SSP585. These findings highlight the alarming increase in the frequency and duration of heat waves, especially under high-emission scenarios. Return periods further confirm the intensification of heatwave characteristics in the future climate. Although the changes in heatwave magnitude (HWM) between historical and projected periods are relatively minimal, they still pose significant risks to human health, agriculture, and ecosystems. Adaptation measures and sustainable practices are crucial to address Africa's challenges of extreme heat. The projected changes under different emission scenarios emphasize the urgent need for proactive measures to mitigate the impacts of heatwaves on vulnerable populations, ecosystems, and key sectors. Understanding the characteristics of heatwaves is crucial for informed decision-making, policy formulation, and planning for climate change adaptation in Africa. The study's results highlight the increasing threat of heat-related mortality in Africa due to climate change which is consistent with previous study (Scovronick et al 2018, Vicedo-Cabrera et al 2021). The analysis of heat-related mortality data from different climate models reveals significant variations in annual mortality estimates, with the highest numbers observed in EAF {East Africa} and WAF {West Africa}. However, all regions of Africa are vulnerable to heat-related mortality. Under the RCP26 {Representative Concentration Pathways--daily minimum?} the projected increase in annual heat-related mortality is substantial, with the MME estimating a rate of 23 000 mortality per year. These findings underscore the urgent need for adaptation and mitigation strategies to address Africa's escalating risks of heat-related mortality. The projected increase in heat related mortality in africa is primarily due to rising temperatures and the growing population in the region (Ebi et al 2021, Rohat et al 2019). Vulnerability to heat stress is compounded by factors such as high population density, limited healthcare access, and low adaptive capacity (Mushore et al 2018, Voelkel et al 2018). The study's results align with previous research, confirming that climate change poses a significant threat to African public health (Sarfaty et al 2014, Opoku et al 2021, Sy et al 2022). The projected rise in heat-related mortality emphasizes the importance of effective emissions reductions and adaptation measures to mitigate the impacts. Without timely action, it is estimated that heat-related mortality in Africa could reach 43 000 mortality per year by the end of the century under the RCP60 {Representative Concentration Pathways--daily maximum??}scenario. Policymakers, healthcare providers, and communities must prioritize measures that address heat-related health risks, including heatwave early warning systems, improved access to healthcare, and heat mitigation strategies in urban areas. By implementing proactive measures, Africa can work towards reducing the devastating impacts of heatwaves on human lives and maintaining the well-being of its populations in a changing climate. A limitation of the current modeling approach is the assumption of constant relative risk over time without accounting for potential acclimatization to heat. Physiological adaptations and societal changes could modify vulnerability over time as populations are increasingly exposed to higher temperatures (Rupert Stuart-Smith et al 2023). For instance, increased access to air conditioning and heat warning systems may reduce risks, causing mortality projection curves to flatten compared to a fixed temperature-mortality relationship. Capturing these acclimatization dynamics could improve projections and avoid overestimating future impacts. Assessing changes in vulnerability and developing models that allow the temperature-mortality curve to evolve based on adaptation efforts would be valuable areas for advancement. Studies incorporating time-varying exposure-response relationships are needed to provide more realistic heat-mortality projections in an adapting society.
{margd: Previous post id'd need for more infrastructure in order to provide advance forecasts. Also, "wet bulb" post suggests that there are limits to human adaptation to heat in areas of high humidity.}
73margd
This chart of ocean temperatures should really scare you
Benji Jones@BenjiSJones | Feb 28, 2024
The Atlantic Ocean is unusually warm right now. Here’s why scientists say that’s “deeply troubling.”...
... Right now, the North Atlantic ocean is, on average, warmer than any other time on record, running about 2 degrees Fahrenheit hotter than the average temperature over the last three decades.
...A warm Atlantic is one signal that the planet, as a whole, is heating up. There are others: This year, large stretches of the US are experiencing a “lost winter” with record-warm temperatures (Minneapolis-St. Paul reached a record 65 degrees earlier this week)
...the planet has already surpassed 1.5 degrees Celsius of warming, a limit set by the 2015 Paris Agreement to avoid the worst impacts of climate change.
...Some regions of the Atlantic have been less windy, for example. That wind not only cools the ocean surface but sends sand and dust from the Sahara out to sea, where it scatters sunlight back out to space (which further helps cool down the ocean). Ironically, a drop in air pollution {change in ship fuel} — which is ultimately a good thing — may also be helping heat up the ocean.
...warming ... altering the growth, the location, and perhaps even the color of plankton communities, which are made up of tiny marine organisms that literally every ocean animal relies on. Plankton that endangered North Atlantic right whales eat, for example, are moving north, and the whales are following them. That makes some of the protected areas ... (where activities that harm the whales are limited) less useful.
...The heat is making some fish smaller. Some fisheries, meanwhile, are shifting toward the poles, in some cases pushing them into different political territories...ocean heat can wipe out coral reefs almost overnight
...A hot winter in the Atlantic could also be a bad sign for this year’s hurricane season.
...short of getting big companies and wealthy countries to cut back on carbon emissions, solutions like {breeding heat-resistant coral and preparing for disasters} only amount to never-ending damage control.
https://www.vox.com/climate/2024/2/28/24085691/atlantic-ocean-warming-climate-ch...
Benji Jones@BenjiSJones | Feb 28, 2024
The Atlantic Ocean is unusually warm right now. Here’s why scientists say that’s “deeply troubling.”...
... Right now, the North Atlantic ocean is, on average, warmer than any other time on record, running about 2 degrees Fahrenheit hotter than the average temperature over the last three decades.
...A warm Atlantic is one signal that the planet, as a whole, is heating up. There are others: This year, large stretches of the US are experiencing a “lost winter” with record-warm temperatures (Minneapolis-St. Paul reached a record 65 degrees earlier this week)
...the planet has already surpassed 1.5 degrees Celsius of warming, a limit set by the 2015 Paris Agreement to avoid the worst impacts of climate change.
...Some regions of the Atlantic have been less windy, for example. That wind not only cools the ocean surface but sends sand and dust from the Sahara out to sea, where it scatters sunlight back out to space (which further helps cool down the ocean). Ironically, a drop in air pollution {change in ship fuel} — which is ultimately a good thing — may also be helping heat up the ocean.
...warming ... altering the growth, the location, and perhaps even the color of plankton communities, which are made up of tiny marine organisms that literally every ocean animal relies on. Plankton that endangered North Atlantic right whales eat, for example, are moving north, and the whales are following them. That makes some of the protected areas ... (where activities that harm the whales are limited) less useful.
...The heat is making some fish smaller. Some fisheries, meanwhile, are shifting toward the poles, in some cases pushing them into different political territories...ocean heat can wipe out coral reefs almost overnight
...A hot winter in the Atlantic could also be a bad sign for this year’s hurricane season.
...short of getting big companies and wealthy countries to cut back on carbon emissions, solutions like {breeding heat-resistant coral and preparing for disasters} only amount to never-ending damage control.
https://www.vox.com/climate/2024/2/28/24085691/atlantic-ocean-warming-climate-ch...
74margd
Prof. Eliot Jacobson @EliotJacobson | 2:55 PM · Feb 17, 2024:
Retired professor of mathematics and computer science
This article is great for folks who want to know what the global temperature anomaly looks like if you subtract out ENSO {El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO, which warms the world in its positive el Niño phase and cools in its negative la Niña phase}, solar and volcanic influences.
tl;dr ~ we're still f&%ked.
Adjusted Global Temperature Data
Grant Foster | February 16, 2024
https://tamino.wordpress.com/2024/02/16/adjusted-global-temperature-data/
From tamino.wordpress.com
Retired professor of mathematics and computer science
This article is great for folks who want to know what the global temperature anomaly looks like if you subtract out ENSO {El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO, which warms the world in its positive el Niño phase and cools in its negative la Niña phase}, solar and volcanic influences.
tl;dr ~ we're still f&%ked.
Adjusted Global Temperature Data
Grant Foster | February 16, 2024
https://tamino.wordpress.com/2024/02/16/adjusted-global-temperature-data/
From tamino.wordpress.com
75margd
Scott Duncan @ScottDuncanWX | 6:41 AM · Mar 3, 2024
Scottish meteorologist based in London
Truly outlandish.
Some places in Europe didn't just record their warmest February on record.... They went on to beat their warmest MARCH temperature levels.
Map Europe Feb 2024 temperature anomaly
https://twitter.com/ScottDuncanWX/status/1764254749925204257/photo/1
Effectively everywhere in the dark red shading smashed warmest February record - most by large margin. Austria 🇦🇹 has over 250 years of temperature record and nothing compares to this. Not even close.
Source: https://zamg.ac.at/cms/de/klima/n
Map Austria ( https://twitter.com/ScottDuncanWX/status/1764257496175120563/photo/1 )
Wiener Neustadt in the east of Austria was so warm that temperature of February 2024 exceeded the warmest MARCH record (data here since 1949)
News article (https://uwz.at/de/a/waermer-als-im-maerz-februar-2024-sprengt-rekorde-in-oesterreich
Poland 🇵🇱
Temperature anomalies ranged from +3.5°C to +7.5°C warmer than average, setting new warmest February on record.
Tweet (https://twitter.com/IMGW_CMM/status/1763598198998802664)
Hungary 🇭🇺 recorded national average temperature +7.0°C higher than the 1991-2020 in February 2024. Pulverising previous warmest February record
This would be considered 7th warmest March for Hungary if these temperatures fell in March.
Source: https://facebook.com/HungaroMet/pos
Graph Hungary temp 1901-2021 ( https://twitter.com/ScottDuncanWX/status/1764262502295036215/photo/1 )
Czechia 🇨🇿 also sets new national record for warmest February. Beating the previous warmest February record by +2.0°C
Tweet ( https://twitter.com/ZdenekNejedly/status/1763491472031076770 )
It was also record mild in England & Wales, records not quite as impressive as Central Europe but a new warmest February on record nonetheless. {margd: I read lots of rain in Wales; fields underwater?}
Tweet ( https://twitter.com/metoffice/status/1763596109102874890 )
Germany 🇩🇪 also set new warmest February on record (data going back to 1881). February 2024 was not that far from reaching record March levels. Nifty graphic summarising the situation by @WxNB_
Tweet ( Germany 🇩🇪 also set new warmest February on record (data going back to 1881). February 2024 was not that far from reaching record March levels. Nifty graphic summarising the situation by @WxNB_ )
Switzerland 🇨🇭 joins the cluster of countries with a new warmest February on record.
Map Switzerland winter 23/24 extreme temps
https://twitter.com/extremetemps/status/1764202803314999585/photo/1
https://twitter.com/extremetemps/status/1764202803314999585/photo/2
Zooming out... It is not just Europe.
Large portions of the Arctic, North America and NW Africa have been much warmer than average. Places like Toronto in Canada 🇨🇦 recorded warmest February on record.
Map Feb 2024 temp anomaly ( https://twitter.com/ScottDuncanWX/status/1764340388389650589/photo/1 )
Very hot in Western Australia - February helps contribute to the hottest summer on record here.
Record heat also in parts of Africa & South America in February.
Maps Feb 2024 temp anomaly
https://twitter.com/ScottDuncanWX/status/1764340921875767595/photo/1
https://twitter.com/ScottDuncanWX/status/1764340921875767595/photo/2
https://twitter.com/ScottDuncanWX/status/1764340921875767595/photo/3
Scottish meteorologist based in London
Truly outlandish.
Some places in Europe didn't just record their warmest February on record.... They went on to beat their warmest MARCH temperature levels.
Map Europe Feb 2024 temperature anomaly
https://twitter.com/ScottDuncanWX/status/1764254749925204257/photo/1
Effectively everywhere in the dark red shading smashed warmest February record - most by large margin. Austria 🇦🇹 has over 250 years of temperature record and nothing compares to this. Not even close.
Source: https://zamg.ac.at/cms/de/klima/n
Map Austria ( https://twitter.com/ScottDuncanWX/status/1764257496175120563/photo/1 )
Wiener Neustadt in the east of Austria was so warm that temperature of February 2024 exceeded the warmest MARCH record (data here since 1949)
News article (https://uwz.at/de/a/waermer-als-im-maerz-februar-2024-sprengt-rekorde-in-oesterreich
Poland 🇵🇱
Temperature anomalies ranged from +3.5°C to +7.5°C warmer than average, setting new warmest February on record.
Tweet (https://twitter.com/IMGW_CMM/status/1763598198998802664)
Hungary 🇭🇺 recorded national average temperature +7.0°C higher than the 1991-2020 in February 2024. Pulverising previous warmest February record
This would be considered 7th warmest March for Hungary if these temperatures fell in March.
Source: https://facebook.com/HungaroMet/pos
Graph Hungary temp 1901-2021 ( https://twitter.com/ScottDuncanWX/status/1764262502295036215/photo/1 )
Czechia 🇨🇿 also sets new national record for warmest February. Beating the previous warmest February record by +2.0°C
Tweet ( https://twitter.com/ZdenekNejedly/status/1763491472031076770 )
It was also record mild in England & Wales, records not quite as impressive as Central Europe but a new warmest February on record nonetheless. {margd: I read lots of rain in Wales; fields underwater?}
Tweet ( https://twitter.com/metoffice/status/1763596109102874890 )
Germany 🇩🇪 also set new warmest February on record (data going back to 1881). February 2024 was not that far from reaching record March levels. Nifty graphic summarising the situation by @WxNB_
Tweet ( Germany 🇩🇪 also set new warmest February on record (data going back to 1881). February 2024 was not that far from reaching record March levels. Nifty graphic summarising the situation by @WxNB_ )
Switzerland 🇨🇭 joins the cluster of countries with a new warmest February on record.
Map Switzerland winter 23/24 extreme temps
https://twitter.com/extremetemps/status/1764202803314999585/photo/1
https://twitter.com/extremetemps/status/1764202803314999585/photo/2
Zooming out... It is not just Europe.
Large portions of the Arctic, North America and NW Africa have been much warmer than average. Places like Toronto in Canada 🇨🇦 recorded warmest February on record.
Map Feb 2024 temp anomaly ( https://twitter.com/ScottDuncanWX/status/1764340388389650589/photo/1 )
Very hot in Western Australia - February helps contribute to the hottest summer on record here.
Record heat also in parts of Africa & South America in February.
Maps Feb 2024 temp anomaly
https://twitter.com/ScottDuncanWX/status/1764340921875767595/photo/1
https://twitter.com/ScottDuncanWX/status/1764340921875767595/photo/2
https://twitter.com/ScottDuncanWX/status/1764340921875767595/photo/3
76margd
Fracturing Antarctic glacier breaks 80 mph speed record
Ben Turner | 1 March 2024
The Pine Island glacier formed a 6.5-mile-long crack at 80 mph, proving to scientists that some glaciers can shatter like glass...
https://www.livescience.com/planet-earth/climate-change/fracturing-antarctic-gla...
----------------------------------------
Stephanie D. Olinger et al. 2024. Ocean Coupling Limits Rupture Velocity of Fastest Observed Ice Shelf Rift Propagation Event. AGU. First published: 05 February 2024. https://doi.org/10.1029/2023AV001023 https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1029/2023AV001023
Plain Language Summary
The flow rate of glaciers in Antarctica is regulated by floating bodies of ice called ice shelves. Ice shelves contain huge cracks called rifts that extend for many kilometers. On many ice shelves, these rifts grow until they disconnect a large iceberg from the rest of the ice shelf. In this study, we use satellite data and seismic recordings to observe over 10 km of rift growth at Pine Island Glacier, an important glacier in West Antarctica. The rift growth event we report is the fastest instance of rift growth ever observed. Using a computer simulation, we model the rift growth process. We find that the ice shelf interacts with the ocean as it cracks, and this interaction determines how quickly rifts can grow. Our observations and simulation also suggest that rift growth causes mixing in the ocean underneath the floating ice shelf.
Ben Turner | 1 March 2024
The Pine Island glacier formed a 6.5-mile-long crack at 80 mph, proving to scientists that some glaciers can shatter like glass...
https://www.livescience.com/planet-earth/climate-change/fracturing-antarctic-gla...
----------------------------------------
Stephanie D. Olinger et al. 2024. Ocean Coupling Limits Rupture Velocity of Fastest Observed Ice Shelf Rift Propagation Event. AGU. First published: 05 February 2024. https://doi.org/10.1029/2023AV001023 https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1029/2023AV001023
Plain Language Summary
The flow rate of glaciers in Antarctica is regulated by floating bodies of ice called ice shelves. Ice shelves contain huge cracks called rifts that extend for many kilometers. On many ice shelves, these rifts grow until they disconnect a large iceberg from the rest of the ice shelf. In this study, we use satellite data and seismic recordings to observe over 10 km of rift growth at Pine Island Glacier, an important glacier in West Antarctica. The rift growth event we report is the fastest instance of rift growth ever observed. Using a computer simulation, we model the rift growth process. We find that the ice shelf interacts with the ocean as it cracks, and this interaction determines how quickly rifts can grow. Our observations and simulation also suggest that rift growth causes mixing in the ocean underneath the floating ice shelf.
77kiparsky
>69 margd: While it's true that solar geo doesn't change the amount of CO2 in the atmosphere, this is not an argument against doing it. It's an argument against doing only solar geo - but "solar geo only" was never a serious proposal. Think of geoengineering as a tourniquet - it's not going to heal the wound, but it's a way to minimize blood loss while other interventions are taken to save the patient. If an EMT dealing with a severed artery were to say "okay, we've got a tourniquet on the guy, we're done", they would be insane, but that doesn't mean that there isn't a use for the tourniquet in emergency medicine.
78margd
>77 kiparsky: I think the argument is that while solar geo will cool both air and oceans, it will take a lot longer for the oceans to respond--and while oceans are cooling, we will lose aquatic species (coral reefs!), currents such as AMOC, and God knows what else once we're over threshold. Good and hopefully sufficient for many humans and terrestrials to cool the air, but many areas would still suffer due to warm water (hurricanes, flooding) and flipped currents (chilly UK etc.). Too, our society's likely insane response to a little reprieve would be to go back to our bad old ways--or worse. I'm not feeling terribly optimistic about our species and our societies, I'm afraid...
79kiparsky
>78 margd: Again, I agree that a "solution" proposing only solar geo-engineering would be completely useless, basically for the reasons you suggest. Solar geo reduces the amount of energy added to the atmosphere due to solar radiation, which reduces the warming of the atmosphere, and to a much lesser extent the warming of the oceans. It would not affect CO2 levels, meaning that ocean acidification would continue unabated, with all of the well-known and disastrous effects that we're seeing now (coral bleaching, etc).
And I share your pessimism about humankind's desire to actually solve this problem. Clearly national governments are not interested in taking effective action, obviously corporate entities aren't interested, and every time someone suggests a thing that a human being can do we're told that's pointless because our individual actions have no effect. (Idiocy, of course, but the argument from futility is always a reflex move of the conservative mind) If that's the case, human extinction is certainly a possibility but certainly a collapse is in store - what comes after is really a matter for science fiction to explore, but it's not going to be very pretty.
But if that's going to happen, it'll be because we've failed to take action, so let's think about what actions we might take to forestall it. Simply getting to net zero, of course, is not enough. We've got enough CO2 in the atmosphere now that temperatures will certainly continue to rise for decades or centuries if we just hit net zero. That means crop failures, mass heat death events, abandonment of the equatorial regions, etc - still a catastrophe, so we need to do a bit better. Sustained net-negative is required, meaning we have to be removing CO2 from the atmosphere faster than it's being added. and we need to stop How negative we have to go is a number-crunching matter, but it's got to be pretty substantial. The only technology we have online today - tested and deployed - is trees, which are not going to be enough. Yes, we need lots more trees and yes we need to stop cutting them down, but that doesn't solve the problem, so we're going to need to get carbon-capture working at scale. This is another tech that lots of people are worried about for much the same reasons that they worry about solar geo, basically the moral-hazard arguments, but it's hard to see how you come up with a plan that addresses the current situation without it. Finally, this does take time, and while we're getting our output as close to zero we can manage and scaling up the carbon capture, atmospheric temperature rise will be causing all of the havoc that we know about it. This is where solar geo comes in: it's a bridge technology that buys the time required for the fix to work. It's the tourniquet that allows us to get the patient to the hospital where their arterial bleeding can be addressed.
Basically, the biggest problem we have is time: all of the perfect solutions take far too long and far too many people die while we're waiting for them to work, which is why we have to seriously evaluate imperfect solutions and find ways to make them work as part of a larger package. As far as I can see, that's the only way to reduce (not eliminate, we've missed that boat!) the coming carnage.
And I share your pessimism about humankind's desire to actually solve this problem. Clearly national governments are not interested in taking effective action, obviously corporate entities aren't interested, and every time someone suggests a thing that a human being can do we're told that's pointless because our individual actions have no effect. (Idiocy, of course, but the argument from futility is always a reflex move of the conservative mind) If that's the case, human extinction is certainly a possibility but certainly a collapse is in store - what comes after is really a matter for science fiction to explore, but it's not going to be very pretty.
But if that's going to happen, it'll be because we've failed to take action, so let's think about what actions we might take to forestall it. Simply getting to net zero, of course, is not enough. We've got enough CO2 in the atmosphere now that temperatures will certainly continue to rise for decades or centuries if we just hit net zero. That means crop failures, mass heat death events, abandonment of the equatorial regions, etc - still a catastrophe, so we need to do a bit better. Sustained net-negative is required, meaning we have to be removing CO2 from the atmosphere faster than it's being added. and we need to stop How negative we have to go is a number-crunching matter, but it's got to be pretty substantial. The only technology we have online today - tested and deployed - is trees, which are not going to be enough. Yes, we need lots more trees and yes we need to stop cutting them down, but that doesn't solve the problem, so we're going to need to get carbon-capture working at scale. This is another tech that lots of people are worried about for much the same reasons that they worry about solar geo, basically the moral-hazard arguments, but it's hard to see how you come up with a plan that addresses the current situation without it. Finally, this does take time, and while we're getting our output as close to zero we can manage and scaling up the carbon capture, atmospheric temperature rise will be causing all of the havoc that we know about it. This is where solar geo comes in: it's a bridge technology that buys the time required for the fix to work. It's the tourniquet that allows us to get the patient to the hospital where their arterial bleeding can be addressed.
Basically, the biggest problem we have is time: all of the perfect solutions take far too long and far too many people die while we're waiting for them to work, which is why we have to seriously evaluate imperfect solutions and find ways to make them work as part of a larger package. As far as I can see, that's the only way to reduce (not eliminate, we've missed that boat!) the coming carnage.
80margd
Sam Carana @SamCarana | 6:25 PM · Mar 4, 2024:
Climate Reanalyzer registered a record high daily temperature of 21.2°C for the sea surface (60°S-60°N, 0-360°E) on March 3, 2024, with daily records going back to 1981. Arctic sea ice looks set for a steep decline.
Graph monthly sea surface temps 1981 - 3 Mar 2024
https://twitter.com/SamCarana/status/1764794436608016784/photo/1
Arctic sea ice set for steep decline
{Sam Carana} Arctic News | March 2, 2024
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2024/03/arctic-sea-ice-set-for-steep-decline.ht...
__________________________________
ETA:
Leon Simons | @LeonSimons8 🌊🌡️📈 | 11:17 AM · Mar 4, 2024:
The North Atlantic Ocean reached 365 days of continuous record high temperatures!...
Graph sea surface temp anomaly 1982-2024 ( https://twitter.com/LeonSimons8/status/1764686496689164735/photo/1 )
Nicole Mortillaro and 3 others
Climate Reanalyzer registered a record high daily temperature of 21.2°C for the sea surface (60°S-60°N, 0-360°E) on March 3, 2024, with daily records going back to 1981. Arctic sea ice looks set for a steep decline.
Graph monthly sea surface temps 1981 - 3 Mar 2024
https://twitter.com/SamCarana/status/1764794436608016784/photo/1
Arctic sea ice set for steep decline
{Sam Carana} Arctic News | March 2, 2024
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2024/03/arctic-sea-ice-set-for-steep-decline.ht...
__________________________________
ETA:
Leon Simons | @LeonSimons8 🌊🌡️📈 | 11:17 AM · Mar 4, 2024:
The North Atlantic Ocean reached 365 days of continuous record high temperatures!...
Graph sea surface temp anomaly 1982-2024 ( https://twitter.com/LeonSimons8/status/1764686496689164735/photo/1 )
Nicole Mortillaro and 3 others
81margd
The Recount @therecount | 12:11 PM · Mar 5, 2024:
28-11: The Florida state Senate passes a bill to remove local governments' authority to adopt heat standards, such as guaranteed shade and rest breaks, for workers.
The bill would make all local heat protections “void and prohibited.”
Florida Senate Passes Bill to Take Control of Heat Standards Authority
0:14 ( https://twitter.com/therecount/status/1765062542987084231 )
28-11: The Florida state Senate passes a bill to remove local governments' authority to adopt heat standards, such as guaranteed shade and rest breaks, for workers.
The bill would make all local heat protections “void and prohibited.”
Florida Senate Passes Bill to Take Control of Heat Standards Authority
0:14 ( https://twitter.com/therecount/status/1765062542987084231 )
82margd
Risks of heat, flood, wind, etc. for US addresses:
https://riskfactor.com/
https://riskfactor.com/
83margd
Record Ocean Temperatures Push Coral Reefs to Brink of Fourth Mass Bleaching Event
Martina Igini | 6 March 2024
...the coordinator of the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s (NOAA) Coral Reef Watch Derek Manzello said it was likely that the entire Southern Hemisphere would experience bleaching this year.
“We are literally sitting on the cusp of the worst bleaching event in the history of the planet,” the ecologist said.
The risk of a mass bleaching event was recently raised by US and Australian researchers in a paper published in the journal Science, which suggested that last year’s extreme marine heatwaves may be a precursor to a mass bleaching and coral mortality event across the Indo-Pacific in 2024-25.*
...These important ecosystems exist in more than 100 countries and territories and support at least 25% of marine species; they are integral to sustaining Earth’s vast and interconnected web of marine biodiversity and provide ecosystem services valued up to $9.9 trillion annually. They are sometimes referred to as “rainforests of the sea” for their ability to act as carbon sinks by absorbing the excess carbon dioxide in the water.
Unfortunately, coral reefs are disappearing at an alarming pace. According to the most recent report by the Global Coral Reef Monitoring Network (GCRMN), analysis showed that the world has lost approximately 14% of corals since 2009.
While coral bleaching can be a natural process that occurs due to rising oceans temperatures in the summer months or during natural weather phenomena such as El Niño, a quasi-periodic fluctuation in oceanographic and atmospheric conditions that brings in warm water, a rise in marine heatwaves linked to human activities has led to more frequent and larger bleaching events globally...
https://earth.org/record-ocean-temperatures-push-coral-reefs-to-brink-of-fourth-...
-------------------------------------------------------
* Record Ocean Temperatures Push World Climate and Marine Life Into Risk Zone, EU-Backed Study Shows
Martina Igini | Oct 30th 2023
https://earth.org/record-ocean-temperatures-push-world-climate-and-marine-life-i...
Martina Igini | 6 March 2024
...the coordinator of the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s (NOAA) Coral Reef Watch Derek Manzello said it was likely that the entire Southern Hemisphere would experience bleaching this year.
“We are literally sitting on the cusp of the worst bleaching event in the history of the planet,” the ecologist said.
The risk of a mass bleaching event was recently raised by US and Australian researchers in a paper published in the journal Science, which suggested that last year’s extreme marine heatwaves may be a precursor to a mass bleaching and coral mortality event across the Indo-Pacific in 2024-25.*
...These important ecosystems exist in more than 100 countries and territories and support at least 25% of marine species; they are integral to sustaining Earth’s vast and interconnected web of marine biodiversity and provide ecosystem services valued up to $9.9 trillion annually. They are sometimes referred to as “rainforests of the sea” for their ability to act as carbon sinks by absorbing the excess carbon dioxide in the water.
Unfortunately, coral reefs are disappearing at an alarming pace. According to the most recent report by the Global Coral Reef Monitoring Network (GCRMN), analysis showed that the world has lost approximately 14% of corals since 2009.
While coral bleaching can be a natural process that occurs due to rising oceans temperatures in the summer months or during natural weather phenomena such as El Niño, a quasi-periodic fluctuation in oceanographic and atmospheric conditions that brings in warm water, a rise in marine heatwaves linked to human activities has led to more frequent and larger bleaching events globally...
https://earth.org/record-ocean-temperatures-push-coral-reefs-to-brink-of-fourth-...
-------------------------------------------------------
* Record Ocean Temperatures Push World Climate and Marine Life Into Risk Zone, EU-Backed Study Shows
Martina Igini | Oct 30th 2023
https://earth.org/record-ocean-temperatures-push-world-climate-and-marine-life-i...
84margd
In Mongolia, a Killer Winter Is Ravaging Herds and a Way of Life
Zaya Delgerjargal • March 6, 2024
Mongolia’s nomadic herders are facing a savage “dzud” winter, with more than 2 million livestock frozen to death so far. Scientists say this lethal phenomenon — extreme cold and heavy snow following summer drought — is occurring more frequently and is linked to climate change...
Dzuds used to occur in this central Asian nation about once every decade, but there have been six in the past 10 years...
...Summer droughts are a precursor for dzuds, as malnutrition makes livestock vulnerable to harsh winter conditions.
...Mongolia has seen a marked uptick in winter snow, which has grown by 40 percent, on average, since 1961.
...Some herders in remote regions view the government’s temporary relief programs as mere publicity campaigns.
https://e360.yale.edu/features/mongolia-dzud-climate-change
Zaya Delgerjargal • March 6, 2024
Mongolia’s nomadic herders are facing a savage “dzud” winter, with more than 2 million livestock frozen to death so far. Scientists say this lethal phenomenon — extreme cold and heavy snow following summer drought — is occurring more frequently and is linked to climate change...
Dzuds used to occur in this central Asian nation about once every decade, but there have been six in the past 10 years...
...Summer droughts are a precursor for dzuds, as malnutrition makes livestock vulnerable to harsh winter conditions.
...Mongolia has seen a marked uptick in winter snow, which has grown by 40 percent, on average, since 1961.
...Some herders in remote regions view the government’s temporary relief programs as mere publicity campaigns.
https://e360.yale.edu/features/mongolia-dzud-climate-change
85margd
Peter Dynes @PGDynes | 6:41 AM · Mar 7, 2024:
CSO http://MEER.org - building climate resilient Adaptation/Mitigation through SRT (surface reflection technology)
The global Summer forecast is out and it's a total climate CODE RED. How many will lose their lives in the coming heatwaves and possible wet bulb temperature of summer 2024.... Feasible Adaptation and mitigation methods need to be accelerated urgently.
Map, ECWMF* 01/03/2024 (so March as it's a European map?) forecast global temp anomalies at 2m
https://twitter.com/PGDynes/status/1765704350720999709/photo/1
*European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts
Organization ecmwf.int
The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts is an independent intergovernmental organisation supported by most of the nations of Europe. It is based at three sites: Shinfield Park, Reading, United Kingdom; Bologna, Italy; and Bonn, Germany. It operates one of the largest supercomputer complexes in Europe and the world's largest archive of numerical weather prediction data. (Wikipedia)
CSO http://MEER.org - building climate resilient Adaptation/Mitigation through SRT (surface reflection technology)
The global Summer forecast is out and it's a total climate CODE RED. How many will lose their lives in the coming heatwaves and possible wet bulb temperature of summer 2024.... Feasible Adaptation and mitigation methods need to be accelerated urgently.
Map, ECWMF* 01/03/2024 (so March as it's a European map?) forecast global temp anomalies at 2m
https://twitter.com/PGDynes/status/1765704350720999709/photo/1
*European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts
Organization ecmwf.int
The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts is an independent intergovernmental organisation supported by most of the nations of Europe. It is based at three sites: Shinfield Park, Reading, United Kingdom; Bologna, Italy; and Bonn, Germany. It operates one of the largest supercomputer complexes in Europe and the world's largest archive of numerical weather prediction data. (Wikipedia)
86margd
2023 had record high energy-related emissions, due to demand, but less so due continued expansion of clean energy technologies...not nearly enough, IMHO...
1 in 5 new car sales globally were EVs in 2023, and that’s curbed oil demand – IEA
Michelle Lewis | Mar 2 2024
Without EVs, solar, wind, and nuclear, the global rise in emissions in the last five years would have been three times larger, new International Energy Agency (IEA) analysis shows.
...The bad news is that energy-related emissions rose in 2023. But the good news is that continued expansion of clean energy technologies meant that global energy-related emissions rose less strongly than in 2022, even as total energy demand growth accelerated.
Emissions increased by 410 million tonnes, or 1.1%, in 2023 – compared with a rise of 490 million tonnes the year before – taking them to a record level of 37.4 billion tonnes.
An exceptional shortfall in hydropower due to extreme droughts in the US, China, and several other economies resulted in over 40% of the rise in emissions in 2023 as countries turned largely to fossil fuels to plug the gap. Had it not been for the unusually low hydropower output, global emissions from electricity generation would have declined in 2023, making the overall rise in energy-related emissions significantly smaller.
Advanced economies saw a record fall in their emissions in 2023 even as their GDP grew. Their emissions dropped to a 50-year low while coal demand fell back to levels not seen since the early 1900s.
It was a combination of strong renewables deployment, coal-to-gas switching, energy efficiency improvements, and softer industrial production that drove the decline in advanced economies’ emissions, reports the IEA...
https://electrek.co/2024/03/02/1-in-5-new-car-sales-globally-in-were-evs-in-2023...
------------------------------------------------------
CO2 Emissions in 2023
A new record high, but is there light at the end of the tunnel?
IEA | March 2024
https://www.iea.org/reports/co2-emissions-in-2023
Last year was the first in which at least half of electricity generation in advanced economies came from such low-emissions sources as renewables and nuclear.
https://electrek.co/2024/03/02/1-in-5-new-car-sales-globally-in-were-evs-in-2023...
-------------------------------------------------------
Clean Energy Market Monitor – March 2024
IEA
https://www.iea.org/reports/clean-energy-market-monitor-march-2024
1 in 5 new car sales globally were EVs in 2023, and that’s curbed oil demand – IEA
Michelle Lewis | Mar 2 2024
Without EVs, solar, wind, and nuclear, the global rise in emissions in the last five years would have been three times larger, new International Energy Agency (IEA) analysis shows.
...The bad news is that energy-related emissions rose in 2023. But the good news is that continued expansion of clean energy technologies meant that global energy-related emissions rose less strongly than in 2022, even as total energy demand growth accelerated.
Emissions increased by 410 million tonnes, or 1.1%, in 2023 – compared with a rise of 490 million tonnes the year before – taking them to a record level of 37.4 billion tonnes.
An exceptional shortfall in hydropower due to extreme droughts in the US, China, and several other economies resulted in over 40% of the rise in emissions in 2023 as countries turned largely to fossil fuels to plug the gap. Had it not been for the unusually low hydropower output, global emissions from electricity generation would have declined in 2023, making the overall rise in energy-related emissions significantly smaller.
Advanced economies saw a record fall in their emissions in 2023 even as their GDP grew. Their emissions dropped to a 50-year low while coal demand fell back to levels not seen since the early 1900s.
It was a combination of strong renewables deployment, coal-to-gas switching, energy efficiency improvements, and softer industrial production that drove the decline in advanced economies’ emissions, reports the IEA...
https://electrek.co/2024/03/02/1-in-5-new-car-sales-globally-in-were-evs-in-2023...
------------------------------------------------------
CO2 Emissions in 2023
A new record high, but is there light at the end of the tunnel?
IEA | March 2024
https://www.iea.org/reports/co2-emissions-in-2023
Last year was the first in which at least half of electricity generation in advanced economies came from such low-emissions sources as renewables and nuclear.
https://electrek.co/2024/03/02/1-in-5-new-car-sales-globally-in-were-evs-in-2023...
-------------------------------------------------------
Clean Energy Market Monitor – March 2024
IEA
https://www.iea.org/reports/clean-energy-market-monitor-march-2024
87kiparsky
>86 margd: Agreed, using more clean energy doesn't help anything if it's not displacing dirty energy...
88margd
Mark Gongloff: An unexpected climate change problem: Keeping nuclear waste safe
Mark Gongloff Bloomberg Opinion (TNS) | Mar 9, 2024
...wildfires scorching the Texas Panhandle came perilously close to the Pantex nuclear-weapons facility just outside of Amarillo...When the Rocky Flats Plant, ...outside of Denver, burned in 1957, it spewed plutonium and other radioactive dust...Los Alamos National Laboratory,...New Mexico, is threatened by wildfires..., most recently in 2000, 2011 and 2022...the Idaho National Laboratory near Idaho Falls; the Santa Susana Field Laboratory outside of Los Angeles...
...Most US {nuclear power} plants are unprepared for {floods, hurricanes, wildfires and droughts}...about 60% of the country’s nuclear power capacity is directly threatened...
...Global warming could eventually thaw out nuclear waste the US military buried deep in the ice in Greenland {GAO}
...rising sea levels could disturb and spread radioactive waste in the Marshall Islands, the site of dozens of Cold War bomb tests
...Worryingly, there is little evidence nuclear operations or governments are ready for such potential catastrophes...
https://www.post-gazette.com/opinion/op-ed/2024/03/09/climate-change-warming-nuc...
Mark Gongloff Bloomberg Opinion (TNS) | Mar 9, 2024
...wildfires scorching the Texas Panhandle came perilously close to the Pantex nuclear-weapons facility just outside of Amarillo...When the Rocky Flats Plant, ...outside of Denver, burned in 1957, it spewed plutonium and other radioactive dust...Los Alamos National Laboratory,...New Mexico, is threatened by wildfires..., most recently in 2000, 2011 and 2022...the Idaho National Laboratory near Idaho Falls; the Santa Susana Field Laboratory outside of Los Angeles...
...Most US {nuclear power} plants are unprepared for {floods, hurricanes, wildfires and droughts}...about 60% of the country’s nuclear power capacity is directly threatened...
...Global warming could eventually thaw out nuclear waste the US military buried deep in the ice in Greenland {GAO}
...rising sea levels could disturb and spread radioactive waste in the Marshall Islands, the site of dozens of Cold War bomb tests
...Worryingly, there is little evidence nuclear operations or governments are ready for such potential catastrophes...
https://www.post-gazette.com/opinion/op-ed/2024/03/09/climate-change-warming-nuc...
892wonderY
>88 margd: The only safe place for that nuclear waste is in the center of the sun.
90margd
>89 2wonderY: Yep. We do, however, choose way less perfect places than the sun... In Ontario, proposal is to deposit nuclear waste underground a couple miles from Lake Huron. Before that, environmentalists successfully opposed proposal to ship it in solid enclosed blocks to Scandinavia... I don't understand why they don't send it not very far away to very deep abandoned mines in geologically stable Canadian Shield (Temagami)...
91margd
Not such a bright idea: cooling the Earth by reflecting sunlight back to space is a dangerous distraction
James Kerry, Aarti Gupta, Terry Hughes | February 29, 2024
...Human-caused climate change is already one planetary-scale experiment too many – we don’t need another.
In some circles, solar geoengineering is gaining prominence as a response to the climate crisis. However, research has consistently identified potential risks posed by the technologies such as:
unpredictable effects on climate and weather patterns
biodiversity loss, especially if use of the technology was halted abruptly
undermining food security by, for example, reducing light and increasing salinity on land
the infringement of human rights across generations – including, but not limited to, passing on huge risks to generations that will come after us.
Here, we discuss several examples of solar radiation modification which exemplify the threats posed by these technologies. These are also depicted in the graphic below. https://theconversation.com/not-such-a-bright-idea-cooling-the-earth-by-reflecti...
...
https://theconversation.com/not-such-a-bright-idea-cooling-the-earth-by-reflecti...
James Kerry, Aarti Gupta, Terry Hughes | February 29, 2024
...Human-caused climate change is already one planetary-scale experiment too many – we don’t need another.
In some circles, solar geoengineering is gaining prominence as a response to the climate crisis. However, research has consistently identified potential risks posed by the technologies such as:
unpredictable effects on climate and weather patterns
biodiversity loss, especially if use of the technology was halted abruptly
undermining food security by, for example, reducing light and increasing salinity on land
the infringement of human rights across generations – including, but not limited to, passing on huge risks to generations that will come after us.
Here, we discuss several examples of solar radiation modification which exemplify the threats posed by these technologies. These are also depicted in the graphic below. https://theconversation.com/not-such-a-bright-idea-cooling-the-earth-by-reflecti...
...
https://theconversation.com/not-such-a-bright-idea-cooling-the-earth-by-reflecti...
92margd
Is Warming Bringing a Wave of New Diseases to Arctic Wildlife?
Ed Struzik • November 6, 2018
Rapid warming and vanishing sea ice in the Arctic has enabled new species, from humpback whales to white-tailed deer, to spread northward. Scientists are increasingly concerned that some of these new arrivals may be bringing dangerous pathogens that could disrupt the region’s fragile ecosystems.
...reindeer in Scandinavia and Russia {anthrax}, muskoxen {Erysipelothrix rhusiopathiae, a bacterium normally found in pigs and poultry, and carried by wild birds and rodents, such as lemmings} on Banks and Victoria islands in Arctic Canada, polar bears {alopecia} and seals {unknown causes} off the coast of Alaska, and eider ducks in northern Hudson Bay and the Bering Sea {avian cholera} ...
...ecosystem stresses brought on by climate change — especially rising temperatures — may have made the animals more vulnerable to infection
...Because most Arctic animals have been isolated for so long, many of them have no immunity to new diseases.
...Toxoplasma gondii, a parasitic pathogen normally associated with house cats, has been found in polar bears and Arctic fox in the Norwegian Arctic archipelago of Svalbard...has also entered the beluga whale population of western Canada. The concern is not so much for the whales, which so far appear to be unaffected, but for the Inuit who eat the blubber of the animal, since the parasite can be transmitted to humans if the blubber or meat is uncooked.
...white-tailed deer, which are carriers of the meningeal brain worm. While deer are unaffected by this pathogen, moose and caribou often die once infected. White-tailed deer have moved north
...In addition to the arrival of previously rare or unknown diseases, some scientists are increasingly worried about a growing load of chemicals and toxic substances in apex predators like polar bears and killer whales...
https://e360.yale.edu/features/is-warming-bringing-a-wave-of-new-diseases-to-arc...
Ed Struzik • November 6, 2018
Rapid warming and vanishing sea ice in the Arctic has enabled new species, from humpback whales to white-tailed deer, to spread northward. Scientists are increasingly concerned that some of these new arrivals may be bringing dangerous pathogens that could disrupt the region’s fragile ecosystems.
...reindeer in Scandinavia and Russia {anthrax}, muskoxen {Erysipelothrix rhusiopathiae, a bacterium normally found in pigs and poultry, and carried by wild birds and rodents, such as lemmings} on Banks and Victoria islands in Arctic Canada, polar bears {alopecia} and seals {unknown causes} off the coast of Alaska, and eider ducks in northern Hudson Bay and the Bering Sea {avian cholera} ...
...ecosystem stresses brought on by climate change — especially rising temperatures — may have made the animals more vulnerable to infection
...Because most Arctic animals have been isolated for so long, many of them have no immunity to new diseases.
...Toxoplasma gondii, a parasitic pathogen normally associated with house cats, has been found in polar bears and Arctic fox in the Norwegian Arctic archipelago of Svalbard...has also entered the beluga whale population of western Canada. The concern is not so much for the whales, which so far appear to be unaffected, but for the Inuit who eat the blubber of the animal, since the parasite can be transmitted to humans if the blubber or meat is uncooked.
...white-tailed deer, which are carriers of the meningeal brain worm. While deer are unaffected by this pathogen, moose and caribou often die once infected. White-tailed deer have moved north
...In addition to the arrival of previously rare or unknown diseases, some scientists are increasingly worried about a growing load of chemicals and toxic substances in apex predators like polar bears and killer whales...
https://e360.yale.edu/features/is-warming-bringing-a-wave-of-new-diseases-to-arc...
93kiparsky
>91 margd: I find this sort of article weirdly irresponsible. The question is not whether we should jump feet-first into solar geo with no proof-of-concept testing to see how it actually works in practice or whether we should just sit back and do nothing because everything is fine, the question is whether we should see what solar geo can do and where it fits into a broader solution or whether we should just sit back and pretend that everything's going to be just fine.
The only argument I can think of for not exploring solar geo is the accelerationist position, which would hold that humanity has already hit a point of no return, and therefore the correct course of action is to hurry human extinction as much as possible in order to minimize the long-term harm we do - for example, if your theory is that humanity, if allowed to continue, will produce a Venus scenario, and that this can be avoided by killing off as many people as possible as soon as possible, then you might make a case for not only not trying to mitigate the atmospheric warming, but indeed to get as much CO2 and other greenhouse gases into the atmosphere as possible in order to end humanity as soon as possible.
If that's not the argument, then the "don't even try" position is pretty untenable.
The only argument I can think of for not exploring solar geo is the accelerationist position, which would hold that humanity has already hit a point of no return, and therefore the correct course of action is to hurry human extinction as much as possible in order to minimize the long-term harm we do - for example, if your theory is that humanity, if allowed to continue, will produce a Venus scenario, and that this can be avoided by killing off as many people as possible as soon as possible, then you might make a case for not only not trying to mitigate the atmospheric warming, but indeed to get as much CO2 and other greenhouse gases into the atmosphere as possible in order to end humanity as soon as possible.
If that's not the argument, then the "don't even try" position is pretty untenable.
942wonderY
>93 kiparsky: Try not to personalize the argument. Margd is presenting someone else’s opinion, not her own.
95kiparsky
>94 2wonderY: For "your", read "one's", as in standard English usage.
The point is, whoever is making it, this argument is pretty messed up.
The point is, whoever is making it, this argument is pretty messed up.
96margd
>95 kiparsky: Wish technology was the answer, I really do. Something!
However, I think the only time emissions dipped was during the Great Recession(?)... Renewable energy projects and EVs help, though not if demand keeps increasing.
However, I think the only time emissions dipped was during the Great Recession(?)... Renewable energy projects and EVs help, though not if demand keeps increasing.
97margd
Jane van Dis MD 🌎 @janevandis | 10:04 AM · Mar 11, 2024
Assistant Prof ObGyn | Climate Justice = Reproductive Justice | born at 323 ppm...
🤔 Humans might be incapable of solving this?
Graph, CO2 emissions, conferences & agreements, 1960-2020
https://twitter.com/janevandis/status/1767189902167294336/photo/1
-----------------------------------------------
Oz Steinmetz @oz_steinmetz
It's like the lottery. The chances are slim, but not even trying means 0% chance.
-----------------------------------------------
Who Is the We in “We Are Causing Climate Change”?
Everyone is not equally complicit here.
Genevieve Guenther | Oct 10, 2018
...Instead of thinking of climate change as something we are doing, always remember that there are millions, possibly billions, of people on this planet who would rather preserve civilization than destroy it with climate change, who would rather have the fossil-fuel economy end than continue. Those people are not all mobilized, by any means, but they are there. Most people are good.
But remember, too, that there are others, some of them running the world, who seem to be willing to destroy civilization and let millions of people die in order that the fossil-fuel economy to continue now. We know who those people are. We are not those people.
Remember as well that there are degrees of complicity. Without structural changes paid for collectively, most of us have no alternative but to use fossil fuels to some degree. As individuals, we must do the very best we can. But constrained choices are not akin to the unthinking complicity of the 10 percent who produce 50 percent of global emissions every year by taking multiple long-haul flights for pleasure travel, heating their homes instead of putting on a sweater, and driving swollen SUVs that they replace every few years. Nor are constrained choices akin to the deep and shameful complicity of the many in the print and television news media who refuse to mention climate change even in the stories about climate change effects they’re already reporting.
Complicit people and institutions must be called out and encouraged to change. And the fossil-fuel industry must be fought, and the governments that support the fossil-fuel economy must be replaced. But none of us will be effective in this if we think of climate change as something we are doing. To think of climate change as something that we are doing, instead of something we are being prevented from undoing, perpetuates the very ideology of the fossil-fuel economy we’re trying to transform.
...This is a battle against the forces of destruction to save something of this achingly beautiful, utterly miraculous world for your children. The fossil-fuel industry and the governments that support it are literally colluding to stop you from creating a world that runs on safe energy. They are trying to maintain the fossil-fuel economy. As for me, and for the millions of people who want to undo climate change, I say: We are against them, and we are going to fight for dear life.
https://slate.com/technology/2018/10/who-is-we-causing-climate-change.html
Assistant Prof ObGyn | Climate Justice = Reproductive Justice | born at 323 ppm...
🤔 Humans might be incapable of solving this?
Graph, CO2 emissions, conferences & agreements, 1960-2020
https://twitter.com/janevandis/status/1767189902167294336/photo/1
-----------------------------------------------
Oz Steinmetz @oz_steinmetz
It's like the lottery. The chances are slim, but not even trying means 0% chance.
-----------------------------------------------
Who Is the We in “We Are Causing Climate Change”?
Everyone is not equally complicit here.
Genevieve Guenther | Oct 10, 2018
...Instead of thinking of climate change as something we are doing, always remember that there are millions, possibly billions, of people on this planet who would rather preserve civilization than destroy it with climate change, who would rather have the fossil-fuel economy end than continue. Those people are not all mobilized, by any means, but they are there. Most people are good.
But remember, too, that there are others, some of them running the world, who seem to be willing to destroy civilization and let millions of people die in order that the fossil-fuel economy to continue now. We know who those people are. We are not those people.
Remember as well that there are degrees of complicity. Without structural changes paid for collectively, most of us have no alternative but to use fossil fuels to some degree. As individuals, we must do the very best we can. But constrained choices are not akin to the unthinking complicity of the 10 percent who produce 50 percent of global emissions every year by taking multiple long-haul flights for pleasure travel, heating their homes instead of putting on a sweater, and driving swollen SUVs that they replace every few years. Nor are constrained choices akin to the deep and shameful complicity of the many in the print and television news media who refuse to mention climate change even in the stories about climate change effects they’re already reporting.
Complicit people and institutions must be called out and encouraged to change. And the fossil-fuel industry must be fought, and the governments that support the fossil-fuel economy must be replaced. But none of us will be effective in this if we think of climate change as something we are doing. To think of climate change as something that we are doing, instead of something we are being prevented from undoing, perpetuates the very ideology of the fossil-fuel economy we’re trying to transform.
...This is a battle against the forces of destruction to save something of this achingly beautiful, utterly miraculous world for your children. The fossil-fuel industry and the governments that support it are literally colluding to stop you from creating a world that runs on safe energy. They are trying to maintain the fossil-fuel economy. As for me, and for the millions of people who want to undo climate change, I say: We are against them, and we are going to fight for dear life.
https://slate.com/technology/2018/10/who-is-we-causing-climate-change.html
98margd
LOTS more lake-effect snow when cold winds blow over open water, e.g., NY's Tug Hill Plateau and Buffalo. Ice storms...
Fewer fish and more algae? Scientists seek to understand impacts of historic lack of Great Lakes ice
Todd Richmond, AP | 11 March 2024
...Ice coverage on the {Great lakes}, which have a combined surface area roughly the size of the U.K., has generally peaked in mid-February over the last 50 years, with as much as 91% of the lakes covered at times... As of mid-February this year, only 3% of the lakes was covered, which was the lowest figure since at least 1973, when the site’s records begin.
Researchers don’t have much data about how years of iceless winters could change the lakes, but they have plenty of theories.
Iceless lakes could absorb sunlight faster and warm up sooner in the spring. Some biologists speculate that this could lead to earlier and larger blue-green algae blooms, which can be toxic to humans and put a damper on summer tourism.
Without ice, the lakes’ upper levels will likely warm even more quickly than usual, contributing to thermal stratification, in which layers of colder and warmer water form. Less oxygen would make it into the lower, colder and denser levels, which could cause plankton and other organisms to die, some scientists believe. Whitefish and lake trout typically hatch in the spring and feed on plankton, so less plankton would likely cause fish populations to shrink, potentially leading to tighter fishing quotas and higher prices at grocery stores and restaurants.
Less ice could translate to longer fishing seasons, but winter storms could wreck nets and traps and destroy whitefish eggs that rely on the ice for protection...
...Less ice also could lead to a longer lake shipping season. But without ice blanketing the lakes, powerful winter storms could erode shorelines more than usual, which could push more sediment into harbors and make them shallower and trickier to navigate... Coupled with lower lake levels due to increased evaporation, ships might have to carry less cargo so they would sit higher in the water...
https://www.greatlakesnow.org/2024/03/ap-fewer-fish-and-more-algae-scientists-se...
Fewer fish and more algae? Scientists seek to understand impacts of historic lack of Great Lakes ice
Todd Richmond, AP | 11 March 2024
...Ice coverage on the {Great lakes}, which have a combined surface area roughly the size of the U.K., has generally peaked in mid-February over the last 50 years, with as much as 91% of the lakes covered at times... As of mid-February this year, only 3% of the lakes was covered, which was the lowest figure since at least 1973, when the site’s records begin.
Researchers don’t have much data about how years of iceless winters could change the lakes, but they have plenty of theories.
Iceless lakes could absorb sunlight faster and warm up sooner in the spring. Some biologists speculate that this could lead to earlier and larger blue-green algae blooms, which can be toxic to humans and put a damper on summer tourism.
Without ice, the lakes’ upper levels will likely warm even more quickly than usual, contributing to thermal stratification, in which layers of colder and warmer water form. Less oxygen would make it into the lower, colder and denser levels, which could cause plankton and other organisms to die, some scientists believe. Whitefish and lake trout typically hatch in the spring and feed on plankton, so less plankton would likely cause fish populations to shrink, potentially leading to tighter fishing quotas and higher prices at grocery stores and restaurants.
Less ice could translate to longer fishing seasons, but winter storms could wreck nets and traps and destroy whitefish eggs that rely on the ice for protection...
...Less ice also could lead to a longer lake shipping season. But without ice blanketing the lakes, powerful winter storms could erode shorelines more than usual, which could push more sediment into harbors and make them shallower and trickier to navigate... Coupled with lower lake levels due to increased evaporation, ships might have to carry less cargo so they would sit higher in the water...
https://www.greatlakesnow.org/2024/03/ap-fewer-fish-and-more-algae-scientists-se...
99margd
Sad that while Cdn Cold War bunkers for various govts (I assume also in US) have been filled in or in one case sold for paintball games. The one exception might be the one in Ottawa ("Diefenbunker" after a 1950s PM), which is open to the public as a kind of Cold War museum. Today, rich folks--some of whose activities are driving climate change--are building bunkers that put these to shame...
From luxury bunkers to tactical vehicles, the ultra-rich are preparing for the Big One
Andre Mayer | Mar 09, 2024
Builders of fortified homes say inquiries and applications are up in recent years...Mark Zuckerberg, CEO of Meta and one of the richest individuals on the planet, was building a $100-million US compound in Hawaii...includes a bunker — 5,000 square feet, to be specific, with concrete walls and an escape hatch.
...anxious about global events and...making contingency plans for the Big One...Architectural Digest named "luxury bunkers" one of the real estate trends of 2023
...In a 2022 piece for the Guardian, technology pundit Douglas Rushkoff talked about attending a highly secretive gathering with ultra-wealthy people who wanted to pick his brain about how to prepare for "the event." They peppered him with questions not only about shelters, but also the wisdom of acquiring mercenary armies and where on Earth they were likely to be most safe.
His conclusion: "Their extreme wealth and privilege served only to make them obsessed with insulating themselves from the very real and present danger of climate change, rising sea levels, mass migrations, global pandemics, nativist panic and resource depletion. For them, the future of technology is about only one thing: escape from the rest of us."
...As {Bradley Garrett, a cultural geographer based in California and the author of Bunker: Building for the End Times} points out, collaboration is likely to be the winning strategy in any post-apocalyptic scenario..."Community is really important, because no one person can have all the skills that you need to be able to survive an event"...
https://www.cbc.ca/news/billionaire-bunkers-doomsday-1.7130152
From luxury bunkers to tactical vehicles, the ultra-rich are preparing for the Big One
Andre Mayer | Mar 09, 2024
Builders of fortified homes say inquiries and applications are up in recent years...Mark Zuckerberg, CEO of Meta and one of the richest individuals on the planet, was building a $100-million US compound in Hawaii...includes a bunker — 5,000 square feet, to be specific, with concrete walls and an escape hatch.
...anxious about global events and...making contingency plans for the Big One...Architectural Digest named "luxury bunkers" one of the real estate trends of 2023
...In a 2022 piece for the Guardian, technology pundit Douglas Rushkoff talked about attending a highly secretive gathering with ultra-wealthy people who wanted to pick his brain about how to prepare for "the event." They peppered him with questions not only about shelters, but also the wisdom of acquiring mercenary armies and where on Earth they were likely to be most safe.
His conclusion: "Their extreme wealth and privilege served only to make them obsessed with insulating themselves from the very real and present danger of climate change, rising sea levels, mass migrations, global pandemics, nativist panic and resource depletion. For them, the future of technology is about only one thing: escape from the rest of us."
...As {Bradley Garrett, a cultural geographer based in California and the author of Bunker: Building for the End Times} points out, collaboration is likely to be the winning strategy in any post-apocalyptic scenario..."Community is really important, because no one person can have all the skills that you need to be able to survive an event"...
https://www.cbc.ca/news/billionaire-bunkers-doomsday-1.7130152
100kiparsky
>96 margd: Wish technology was the answer, I really do.
That feels a bit dismissive, honestly. Clearly, there isn't a single "the answer" to find, it's not clear to me what the question is that you're looking for an answer to. Certainly we can't make the catastrophe go away, not with technology or good intentions or with everyone trying real hard and being very sincere. As we've said, people will die in tens of millions because of the climate catastrophe, that is already baked in and can't be changed. The future of this century is largely written, and it's an ugly story. There are no simple "answers" to find.
All of that being the case, the question is not "is solar geo-engineering the magic trick that'll make this all go away?" but "is solar geo-engineering something that can play a useful role in averting some of the worst effects of the ongoing catastrophe?". And from what I've seen the answer is, very likely yes, and we should test it and see.
I think the only time emissions dipped was during the Great Recession
I think that's correct. With all of the renewable resources that have come on line in recent years, the only real effect has been to flatten the rate at which emissions get worse. Are you making a case for the futility position here?
That feels a bit dismissive, honestly. Clearly, there isn't a single "the answer" to find, it's not clear to me what the question is that you're looking for an answer to. Certainly we can't make the catastrophe go away, not with technology or good intentions or with everyone trying real hard and being very sincere. As we've said, people will die in tens of millions because of the climate catastrophe, that is already baked in and can't be changed. The future of this century is largely written, and it's an ugly story. There are no simple "answers" to find.
All of that being the case, the question is not "is solar geo-engineering the magic trick that'll make this all go away?" but "is solar geo-engineering something that can play a useful role in averting some of the worst effects of the ongoing catastrophe?". And from what I've seen the answer is, very likely yes, and we should test it and see.
I think the only time emissions dipped was during the Great Recession
I think that's correct. With all of the renewable resources that have come on line in recent years, the only real effect has been to flatten the rate at which emissions get worse. Are you making a case for the futility position here?
101margd
Piyush Jain et al. 2024. Canada Under Fire – Drivers and Impacts of the Record-Breaking 2023 Wildfire Season. 45p. https://d197for5662m48.cloudfront.net/documents/publicationstatus/198300/preprin...
PREPRINT--not yet peer reviewed
Abstract
The 2023 wildfire season in Canada was unprecedented in its scale and intensity. Spanning from late April to early November and extending across much of the forested regions of Canada, the season resulted
in a record-breaking total area burned of approximately 15 million hectares, over seven times the historic national annual average. The impacts were profound with more than 200 communities evacuated
(approximately 232,000 people), periods of dense smoke that caused significant public health concerns, and unprecedented demands on fire-fighting resources. The exceptional area burned can be attributed to several environmental factors that converged early in the season to enable extreme fire danger over much of the country. These factors included early snowmelt, interannual drought conditions in western Canada, and the rapid transition to drought in eastern Canada. Furthermore, the mean May–October temperature over Canada in 2023 was a staggering 2.2°C warmer than normal (1991–2020), enabling sustained extreme fire weather conditions throughout the fire season. These conditions led to a larger than normal proportion of very large fires (50,000+ hectares), many having burned for months from the spring into the fall. Fires that started in May or June ccounted for over two-thirds of the total area burned. Overall, the 2023 wildfire season in Canada was characterized by its exceptional scale and major societal impacts, setting new records and highlighting the increasing challenges posed by wildfires in the country.
PREPRINT--not yet peer reviewed
Abstract
The 2023 wildfire season in Canada was unprecedented in its scale and intensity. Spanning from late April to early November and extending across much of the forested regions of Canada, the season resulted
in a record-breaking total area burned of approximately 15 million hectares, over seven times the historic national annual average. The impacts were profound with more than 200 communities evacuated
(approximately 232,000 people), periods of dense smoke that caused significant public health concerns, and unprecedented demands on fire-fighting resources. The exceptional area burned can be attributed to several environmental factors that converged early in the season to enable extreme fire danger over much of the country. These factors included early snowmelt, interannual drought conditions in western Canada, and the rapid transition to drought in eastern Canada. Furthermore, the mean May–October temperature over Canada in 2023 was a staggering 2.2°C warmer than normal (1991–2020), enabling sustained extreme fire weather conditions throughout the fire season. These conditions led to a larger than normal proportion of very large fires (50,000+ hectares), many having burned for months from the spring into the fall. Fires that started in May or June ccounted for over two-thirds of the total area burned. Overall, the 2023 wildfire season in Canada was characterized by its exceptional scale and major societal impacts, setting new records and highlighting the increasing challenges posed by wildfires in the country.
102margd
US energy industry methane emissions are triple what government thinks, study finds
SETH BORENSTEIN | March 13, 2024
American oil and natural gas wells, pipelines and compressors are spewing three times the amount of the potent heat-trapping gas methane as the government thinks, causing $9.3 billion in yearly climate damage, a new comprehensive study calculates.
But because more than half of these methane emissions are coming from a tiny number of oil and gas sites, 1% or less, this means the problem is both worse than the government thought but also fairly fixable, said the lead author of a study in Wednesday’s journal Nature.
The same issue is happening globally. Large methane emissions events around the world detected by satellites grew 50% in 2023 compared to 2022 with more than 5 million metric tons spotted in major fossil fuel leaks, the International Energy Agency reported Wednesday in their Global Methane Tracker 2024. World methane emissions rose slightly in 2023 to 120 million metric tons, the report said.
“This is really an opportunity to cut emissions quite rapidly with targeted efforts at these highest emitting sites,” said lead author Evan Sherwin, an energy and policy analyst at the U.S. Department of Energy’s Lawrence Berkeley National Lab who wrote the study while at Stanford University. “If we can get this roughly 1% of sites under control, then we’re halfway there because that’s about half of the emissions in most cases.”...
https://apnews.com/article/methane-natural-gas-leak-climate-change-401cc08ad784d...
SETH BORENSTEIN | March 13, 2024
American oil and natural gas wells, pipelines and compressors are spewing three times the amount of the potent heat-trapping gas methane as the government thinks, causing $9.3 billion in yearly climate damage, a new comprehensive study calculates.
But because more than half of these methane emissions are coming from a tiny number of oil and gas sites, 1% or less, this means the problem is both worse than the government thought but also fairly fixable, said the lead author of a study in Wednesday’s journal Nature.
The same issue is happening globally. Large methane emissions events around the world detected by satellites grew 50% in 2023 compared to 2022 with more than 5 million metric tons spotted in major fossil fuel leaks, the International Energy Agency reported Wednesday in their Global Methane Tracker 2024. World methane emissions rose slightly in 2023 to 120 million metric tons, the report said.
“This is really an opportunity to cut emissions quite rapidly with targeted efforts at these highest emitting sites,” said lead author Evan Sherwin, an energy and policy analyst at the U.S. Department of Energy’s Lawrence Berkeley National Lab who wrote the study while at Stanford University. “If we can get this roughly 1% of sites under control, then we’re halfway there because that’s about half of the emissions in most cases.”...
https://apnews.com/article/methane-natural-gas-leak-climate-change-401cc08ad784d...
103margd
Peter Dynes @PGDynes | 7:19 AM · Mar 16, 2024:
CSO http://MEER.org - building climate resilient Adaptation/Mitigation through SRT (surface reflection technology)
It's predicted that 3 billion people will live in #uninhabitable zones (black areas) by 2070, under 50 years. Current #climate trends look like they are bringing that timeframe forward considerably. #Migration levels will be beyond anything ever witnessed in the next 3 decades.
Map world w uninhaitable regions (https://twitter.com/PGDynes/status/1768960172699902319/photo/1 )
----------------------------------------------
Chi Xu et al. 2020. Future of the human climate niche. PNAS, May 4, 2020. 117 (21) 11350-11355 https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1910114117 https://www.pnas.org/doi/full/10.1073/pnas.1910114117
...Specifically, 3.5 billion people will be exposed to MAT {mean annual temperature} 29.0 °C or more, a situation found in the present climate only in 0.8% of the global land surface, mostly concentrated in the Sahara, but in 2070 projected to cover 19% of the global land (Fig. 3)...
CSO http://MEER.org - building climate resilient Adaptation/Mitigation through SRT (surface reflection technology)
It's predicted that 3 billion people will live in #uninhabitable zones (black areas) by 2070, under 50 years. Current #climate trends look like they are bringing that timeframe forward considerably. #Migration levels will be beyond anything ever witnessed in the next 3 decades.
Map world w uninhaitable regions (https://twitter.com/PGDynes/status/1768960172699902319/photo/1 )
----------------------------------------------
Chi Xu et al. 2020. Future of the human climate niche. PNAS, May 4, 2020. 117 (21) 11350-11355 https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1910114117 https://www.pnas.org/doi/full/10.1073/pnas.1910114117
...Specifically, 3.5 billion people will be exposed to MAT {mean annual temperature} 29.0 °C or more, a situation found in the present climate only in 0.8% of the global land surface, mostly concentrated in the Sahara, but in 2070 projected to cover 19% of the global land (Fig. 3)...
104margd
Are we all doomed? How to cope with the daunting uncertainties of climate change
Adam Sobel | 18 March 2024
How doomed are we? It’s a question I have been asked as a climate scientist many times over the years, sometimes with “doomed” replaced by less printable synonyms.
I struggle to answer it every time. It’s not a scientific question, because the terms are not well defined. What does it mean to be “doomed”? And who is “we”?
Maybe some people really mean it in the most extreme and literal sense: whether global warming is going to single-handedly wipe out the human species in the near future. In that case, it’s easy to talk them down. The evidence doesn’t support that prediction.
Threat multiplier
Emotion and action
Treating the symptoms
...The important thing is to remain engaged. That means recognizing that doom is a state of mind, and that uncertainty about the planet’s future is now just part of the human condition. It means doing our best to keep both the climate crisis and the many other dimensions of human and planetary well-being in our view at the same time, both in their global and local dimensions. It means trying to live our values in ways consistent with those realities, as well as we can understand them. And it means recognizing that science has a crucial part to play — but that science can only take us so far.
References...
Nature 627, 483-485 (2024)
doi: https://doi.org/10.1038/d41586-024-00790-6
https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-024-00790-6
Adam Sobel | 18 March 2024
How doomed are we? It’s a question I have been asked as a climate scientist many times over the years, sometimes with “doomed” replaced by less printable synonyms.
I struggle to answer it every time. It’s not a scientific question, because the terms are not well defined. What does it mean to be “doomed”? And who is “we”?
Maybe some people really mean it in the most extreme and literal sense: whether global warming is going to single-handedly wipe out the human species in the near future. In that case, it’s easy to talk them down. The evidence doesn’t support that prediction.
Threat multiplier
Emotion and action
Treating the symptoms
...The important thing is to remain engaged. That means recognizing that doom is a state of mind, and that uncertainty about the planet’s future is now just part of the human condition. It means doing our best to keep both the climate crisis and the many other dimensions of human and planetary well-being in our view at the same time, both in their global and local dimensions. It means trying to live our values in ways consistent with those realities, as well as we can understand them. And it means recognizing that science has a crucial part to play — but that science can only take us so far.
References...
Nature 627, 483-485 (2024)
doi: https://doi.org/10.1038/d41586-024-00790-6
https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-024-00790-6
105margd
Why Is the Sea So Hot?
A startling rise in sea-surface temperatures suggests that we may not understand how fast the climate is changing.
Elizabeth Kolbert | March 15, 2024
...Brian McNoldy, a hurricane researcher at the University of Miami...“It’s not like we’re breaking records by a little bit now and then...It’s like the whole climate just fast-forwarded by fifty or a hundred years. That’s how strange this looks.” It’s estimated that in 2023 the heat content in the upper two thousand metres of the oceans increased by at least nine zettajoules. For comparison’s sake, the world’s annual energy consumption amounts to about 0.6 zettajoules.
...Last winter, before ocean temperatures began their record run, the world was in the cool—or La Niña—phase of a climate pattern that goes by the acronym ENSO. By summer, an El Niño—or warm phase—had begun...ocean temperatures started to climb before the start of El Niño...
...January, 2022, eruption of an underwater volcano in the South Pacific called Hunga Tonga–Hunga Ha‘apai. Usually, volcanoes emit sulfur dioxide, which produces a temporary cooling effect, and water vapor, which does the opposite. Hunga Tonga–Hunga Ha‘apai produced relatively little sulfur dioxide but a fantastic amount of water vapor, and its warming effects, it’s believed, are still being felt.
...the current solar cycle, known as Solar Cycle 25...is ramping up—it’s expected to peak this year or next—and this, too, may be producing an extra bit of warming
...change in the composition of shipping fuel. Regulations that went into effect in 2020 reduced the amount of sulfur in the fuel used by supertankers...decline in a type of air pollution that, through direct and indirect effects, reflects sunlight back to space...
...2023...was by far the warmest year on record on land, as well as in the oceans, many countries experienced record-breaking heat waves or record-breaking wildfires or record-breaking rainstorms or some combination of these.
...Gavin Schmidt, the director of NASA’s Goddard Institute for Space Studies...“The other thing that this could all be is, we are starting to see shifts in how the system responds...All of these statistics that we’re talking about, they’re taken from the prior data. But nothing in the prior data looked like 2023. Does that mean that the prior data are no longer predictive because the system has changed? I can’t rule that out, and that would obviously be very concerning.”
https://www.newyorker.com/news/daily-comment/why-is-the-sea-so-hot?
A startling rise in sea-surface temperatures suggests that we may not understand how fast the climate is changing.
Elizabeth Kolbert | March 15, 2024
...Brian McNoldy, a hurricane researcher at the University of Miami...“It’s not like we’re breaking records by a little bit now and then...It’s like the whole climate just fast-forwarded by fifty or a hundred years. That’s how strange this looks.” It’s estimated that in 2023 the heat content in the upper two thousand metres of the oceans increased by at least nine zettajoules. For comparison’s sake, the world’s annual energy consumption amounts to about 0.6 zettajoules.
...Last winter, before ocean temperatures began their record run, the world was in the cool—or La Niña—phase of a climate pattern that goes by the acronym ENSO. By summer, an El Niño—or warm phase—had begun...ocean temperatures started to climb before the start of El Niño...
...January, 2022, eruption of an underwater volcano in the South Pacific called Hunga Tonga–Hunga Ha‘apai. Usually, volcanoes emit sulfur dioxide, which produces a temporary cooling effect, and water vapor, which does the opposite. Hunga Tonga–Hunga Ha‘apai produced relatively little sulfur dioxide but a fantastic amount of water vapor, and its warming effects, it’s believed, are still being felt.
...the current solar cycle, known as Solar Cycle 25...is ramping up—it’s expected to peak this year or next—and this, too, may be producing an extra bit of warming
...change in the composition of shipping fuel. Regulations that went into effect in 2020 reduced the amount of sulfur in the fuel used by supertankers...decline in a type of air pollution that, through direct and indirect effects, reflects sunlight back to space...
...2023...was by far the warmest year on record on land, as well as in the oceans, many countries experienced record-breaking heat waves or record-breaking wildfires or record-breaking rainstorms or some combination of these.
...Gavin Schmidt, the director of NASA’s Goddard Institute for Space Studies...“The other thing that this could all be is, we are starting to see shifts in how the system responds...All of these statistics that we’re talking about, they’re taken from the prior data. But nothing in the prior data looked like 2023. Does that mean that the prior data are no longer predictive because the system has changed? I can’t rule that out, and that would obviously be very concerning.”
https://www.newyorker.com/news/daily-comment/why-is-the-sea-so-hot?
106margd
Iron also limits bacteria growth in sea water (as with human blood), so hope oceanographers thoroughly explore ramifications before undertaking any bioengineering...
Iron Fertilization of the Ocean
Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution
...Adding small amounts of iron to the ocean’s surface can trigger a bloom of phytoplankton big enough to be seen from space. Such additions happen naturally, such as when winds blow dust from the Sahara Desert or ash from a volcanic eruption. When the plume of dust or ash settles over the ocean’s surface, it triggers massive blooms of phytoplankton that remove substantial amounts of carbon dioxide from the atmosphere. Iron fertilization is a Carbon Dioxide Removal (CDR) technique that would mimic this natural system, artificially adding iron to the ocean’s surface to stimulate growth of phytoplankton...
https://www.whoi.edu/know-your-ocean/ocean-topics/climate-weather/ocean-based-cl...
Iron Fertilization of the Ocean
Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution
...Adding small amounts of iron to the ocean’s surface can trigger a bloom of phytoplankton big enough to be seen from space. Such additions happen naturally, such as when winds blow dust from the Sahara Desert or ash from a volcanic eruption. When the plume of dust or ash settles over the ocean’s surface, it triggers massive blooms of phytoplankton that remove substantial amounts of carbon dioxide from the atmosphere. Iron fertilization is a Carbon Dioxide Removal (CDR) technique that would mimic this natural system, artificially adding iron to the ocean’s surface to stimulate growth of phytoplankton...
https://www.whoi.edu/know-your-ocean/ocean-topics/climate-weather/ocean-based-cl...
107margd
Roger Hallam @RogerHallamCS21 | 4:53 AM · Mar 20, 2024:
Co-founder of Extinction Rebellion and Just Stop Oil. '#34 Most Influential UK Progressive' - New Statesman.
Why is no one taking any notice of AMOC {Atlantic meridional overturning circulation} - the worst news for UK industry, society and the state in the last 10,000 years?
Because when journalists talk about it they say:
"Shutdown could be catastrophic for Europe and other regions."
What an utterly stupid comment - where did the "could" come from? It's fucking physics - if/when AMOC goes, it ABSOLUTELY WILL be catastrophic."
It's "errors" like this that make guardian's claim to be independent a totally sick joke.
You might have also noticed the little add on there: "and other regions" - oh yes, and a 1000 million poor black people in "other regions" are going to get totally fucked up. Passing comment @fionaharvey @KathViner .
Effects of geoengineering must be urgently investigated, experts say
Impact on ecosystems must be predicted before technology is used, US atmospheric science agency chief says
Fiona Harvey | 14 Mar 2024
https://theguardian.com/environment/2024/mar/14/geoengineering-must-be-urgently-...
------------------------------------------------
The Truth About Atlantic Ocean Circulation Collapse
Roger Hallam | Feb 12, 2024
As I write, an article on the Atlantic Ocean Circulation nearing its tipping point is the top viewed on the Guardian website. This is what they miss out:
The collapse of the Atlantic Ocean circulation (AMOC) will be the most devastating event in the last 10,000 years of human history.
It will happen overnight with sudden effects.
It will be irreversible and continue for 1000s of years.
It will destroy human civilisation because it will be impossible to grow food in northern Europe - temperatures would drop by between 3-8°C. Enough to half the amount of land where you can grow wheat.
100s of millions of Europeans will have to move or starve to death. Those that move will be subject to holocaust events created by warlords and/or fascistic regimes.
Coastal cities will have to be evacuated.
Monsoons in the tropics will collapse, resulting in 100s of millions more refugees.
This is just the beginning - the collapse also will feed into other disastrous climate tipping points like the collapse of the Amazon rainforest. We are looking at billions of deaths and possible effective extinction this century - that now has to be the main concern.
Last but not least, the above scenario is a conservative prediction because it doesn't take into account the non-linear effects of other systems on the AMOC collapse date (e.g the collapse of ice cover in the Arctic, methane release, and mega forest fires).
Why is no one talking about this?
Why aren't there emergency conferences of Europe's farmers?
Why aren't the media going on strike till the government acts?
Why aren't there mass sit-downs in cities for weeks on end?
Because repressed scientists just say that it's "kind of scary" - like saying Auschwitz was "kind of unpleasant".
The situation is totally f*cked.
https://rogerhallam.com/atlantic-ocean-circulation-collapse/
Co-founder of Extinction Rebellion and Just Stop Oil. '#34 Most Influential UK Progressive' - New Statesman.
Why is no one taking any notice of AMOC {Atlantic meridional overturning circulation} - the worst news for UK industry, society and the state in the last 10,000 years?
Because when journalists talk about it they say:
"Shutdown could be catastrophic for Europe and other regions."
What an utterly stupid comment - where did the "could" come from? It's fucking physics - if/when AMOC goes, it ABSOLUTELY WILL be catastrophic."
It's "errors" like this that make guardian's claim to be independent a totally sick joke.
You might have also noticed the little add on there: "and other regions" - oh yes, and a 1000 million poor black people in "other regions" are going to get totally fucked up. Passing comment @fionaharvey @KathViner .
Effects of geoengineering must be urgently investigated, experts say
Impact on ecosystems must be predicted before technology is used, US atmospheric science agency chief says
Fiona Harvey | 14 Mar 2024
https://theguardian.com/environment/2024/mar/14/geoengineering-must-be-urgently-...
------------------------------------------------
The Truth About Atlantic Ocean Circulation Collapse
Roger Hallam | Feb 12, 2024
As I write, an article on the Atlantic Ocean Circulation nearing its tipping point is the top viewed on the Guardian website. This is what they miss out:
The collapse of the Atlantic Ocean circulation (AMOC) will be the most devastating event in the last 10,000 years of human history.
It will happen overnight with sudden effects.
It will be irreversible and continue for 1000s of years.
It will destroy human civilisation because it will be impossible to grow food in northern Europe - temperatures would drop by between 3-8°C. Enough to half the amount of land where you can grow wheat.
100s of millions of Europeans will have to move or starve to death. Those that move will be subject to holocaust events created by warlords and/or fascistic regimes.
Coastal cities will have to be evacuated.
Monsoons in the tropics will collapse, resulting in 100s of millions more refugees.
This is just the beginning - the collapse also will feed into other disastrous climate tipping points like the collapse of the Amazon rainforest. We are looking at billions of deaths and possible effective extinction this century - that now has to be the main concern.
Last but not least, the above scenario is a conservative prediction because it doesn't take into account the non-linear effects of other systems on the AMOC collapse date (e.g the collapse of ice cover in the Arctic, methane release, and mega forest fires).
Why is no one talking about this?
Why aren't there emergency conferences of Europe's farmers?
Why aren't the media going on strike till the government acts?
Why aren't there mass sit-downs in cities for weeks on end?
Because repressed scientists just say that it's "kind of scary" - like saying Auschwitz was "kind of unpleasant".
The situation is totally f*cked.
https://rogerhallam.com/atlantic-ocean-circulation-collapse/
108margd
The Upper Atmosphere Is Cooling, Prompting New Climate Concerns
Fred Pearce • May 18, 2023
...The Earth’s atmosphere has a number of layers. The region we know best, because it is where our weather happens, is the troposphere. This dense blanket of air five to nine miles thick contains 80 percent of the mass of the atmosphere but only a small fraction of its volume. Above it are wide open spaces of progressively less dense air. The stratosphere, which ends around 30 miles up, is followed by the mesosphere, which extends to 50 miles, and then the thermosphere, which reaches more than 400 miles up.
From below, these distant zones appear as placid and pristine blue sky. But in fact, they are buffeted by high winds and huge tides of rising and descending air that occasionally invade our troposphere. And the concern is that this already dynamic environment could change again as it is infiltrated by CO2 and other human-made chemicals that mess with the temperature, density, and chemistry of the air aloft.
...Satellite data have recently revealed that between 2002 and 2019, the mesosphere and lower thermosphere cooled by 3.1 degrees F (1.7 degrees C )...the cooling of the upper air also causes it to contract...
The depth of the stratosphere has diminished by about 1 percent, or 1,300 feet, since 1980...1,120 feet of it was due to cooling caused by the extra CO2
...On the face of it, this is good news for satellite operators. Their payloads should stay operational for longer before falling back to Earth. But the problem is the other objects that share these altitudes. The growing amount of space junk — bits of equipment of various sorts left behind in orbit — are also sticking around longer, increasing the risk of collisions with currently operational satellites.
...While the ozone layer over the Antarctic is slowly reforming as CFCs disappear, the Arctic is proving different...In the Arctic, the cooling is worsening ozone loss...In the spring of 2020, the Arctic had its first full-blown ozone hole with more than half the ozone layer lost in places...while the regions beneath previous Antarctic holes have been largely devoid of people, the regions beneath future Arctic ozone holes are potentially some of the more densely populated on the planet, including Central and Western Europe.
...sudden stratospheric warming. Westerly winds in the stratosphere periodically reverse, resulting in big temperatures swings during which parts of the stratosphere can warm by as much as 90 degrees F (50 degrees C) in a couple of days. This is typically accompanied by a rapid sinking of air that pushes onto the Atlantic jet stream at the top of the troposphere. The jet stream, which drives weather systems widely across the Northern Hemisphere, begins to snake {margd: "Rossby waves?}. This disturbance can cause a variety of extreme weather, from persistent intense rains to summer droughts and “blocking highs” that can cause weeks of intense cold winter weather from eastern North America to Europe and parts of Asia...while some models predict many more sudden warming events, others suggest fewer.
{Martin Mlynczak, an atmospheric physicist at the NASA Langley Research Center in Hampton, Virginia} is hoping to reboot interest in monitoring with a special session that he is organizing at the American Geophysical Union this fall to discuss the upper atmosphere as “the next frontier in climate change.” Without continued monitoring, the fear is we could soon be returning to the days of the ignorosphere.
https://e360.yale.edu/features/climate-change-upper-atmosphere-cooling
Fred Pearce • May 18, 2023
...The Earth’s atmosphere has a number of layers. The region we know best, because it is where our weather happens, is the troposphere. This dense blanket of air five to nine miles thick contains 80 percent of the mass of the atmosphere but only a small fraction of its volume. Above it are wide open spaces of progressively less dense air. The stratosphere, which ends around 30 miles up, is followed by the mesosphere, which extends to 50 miles, and then the thermosphere, which reaches more than 400 miles up.
From below, these distant zones appear as placid and pristine blue sky. But in fact, they are buffeted by high winds and huge tides of rising and descending air that occasionally invade our troposphere. And the concern is that this already dynamic environment could change again as it is infiltrated by CO2 and other human-made chemicals that mess with the temperature, density, and chemistry of the air aloft.
...Satellite data have recently revealed that between 2002 and 2019, the mesosphere and lower thermosphere cooled by 3.1 degrees F (1.7 degrees C )...the cooling of the upper air also causes it to contract...
The depth of the stratosphere has diminished by about 1 percent, or 1,300 feet, since 1980...1,120 feet of it was due to cooling caused by the extra CO2
...On the face of it, this is good news for satellite operators. Their payloads should stay operational for longer before falling back to Earth. But the problem is the other objects that share these altitudes. The growing amount of space junk — bits of equipment of various sorts left behind in orbit — are also sticking around longer, increasing the risk of collisions with currently operational satellites.
...While the ozone layer over the Antarctic is slowly reforming as CFCs disappear, the Arctic is proving different...In the Arctic, the cooling is worsening ozone loss...In the spring of 2020, the Arctic had its first full-blown ozone hole with more than half the ozone layer lost in places...while the regions beneath previous Antarctic holes have been largely devoid of people, the regions beneath future Arctic ozone holes are potentially some of the more densely populated on the planet, including Central and Western Europe.
...sudden stratospheric warming. Westerly winds in the stratosphere periodically reverse, resulting in big temperatures swings during which parts of the stratosphere can warm by as much as 90 degrees F (50 degrees C) in a couple of days. This is typically accompanied by a rapid sinking of air that pushes onto the Atlantic jet stream at the top of the troposphere. The jet stream, which drives weather systems widely across the Northern Hemisphere, begins to snake {margd: "Rossby waves?}. This disturbance can cause a variety of extreme weather, from persistent intense rains to summer droughts and “blocking highs” that can cause weeks of intense cold winter weather from eastern North America to Europe and parts of Asia...while some models predict many more sudden warming events, others suggest fewer.
{Martin Mlynczak, an atmospheric physicist at the NASA Langley Research Center in Hampton, Virginia} is hoping to reboot interest in monitoring with a special session that he is organizing at the American Geophysical Union this fall to discuss the upper atmosphere as “the next frontier in climate change.” Without continued monitoring, the fear is we could soon be returning to the days of the ignorosphere.
https://e360.yale.edu/features/climate-change-upper-atmosphere-cooling
109margd
Scotland’s pledge to cut emissions by 75% by 2030 ‘no longer credible’
Severin Carrell | 20 Mar 2024 04.43 EDT
...In a damning report submitted to the Scottish parliament, the UK Climate Change Committee (CCC) accused the Scottish government of repeatedly failing to live up to its legally binding targets.
...The CCC’s criticisms have been growing in intensity for some years. In the Scottish government, the Scottish National party shares power with the Scottish Greens after signing a cooperation agreement in 2021 that prioritised action on climate. Humza Yousaf, who succeeded Nicola Sturgeon as first minister and as SNP leader, has put less emphasis on climate action, despite its significance in the deal with the Greens.
With the SNP facing significant losses in the next general election, he has endorsed the oil industry’s position that heavier taxes to fund a transition to clean energy are unjustified, cut funding for forestry and watered down proposals to switch farming subsidies towards nature recovery.
In its annual progress report to Holyrood, the CCC found:
Scotland would need to cut emissions across housing, transport, farming and waste by ninefold in the next six years to meet its 2030 target.
Its tree-planting, peatland restoration, heat pump installation, recycling and electric van rates are “significantly” off track.
On transport alone, the government had to achieve a fourfold increase in its annual reductions to hit the 2030 target.
It has no strategy to decarbonise aviation, and has failed to use the powers to set higher air departure taxes given to Holyrood in 2016.
In one of the few policy areas it applauded, the CCC said the government’s “bold” heat in buildings bill could become a template for the rest of the UK if it was implemented as planned.
As well as banning gas and oil-fired heating by 2045, the bill will mandate minimum energy efficiency standards for private and rented homes and require lower carbon heating to be installed when a house is sold...
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2024/mar/20/scotlands-pledge-cut-emissio...
_______________________________
New study suggests the Atlantic {meridian} overturning circulation AMOC “is on tipping course”
Stefan | 9 Feb 2024
A new paper was published in Science Advances today. Its title says what it is about: “Physics-based early warning signal shows that AMOC is on tipping course.” The study follows one by Danish colleagues which made headlines last July, likewise looking for early warning signals for approaching an AMOC tipping point (we discussed it here), but using rather different data and methods.
...Given the impacts, the risk of an AMOC collapse is something to be avoided at all cost. As I’ve said before: the issue is not whether we’re sure this is going to happen. The issue is that we need to rule this out at 99.9 % probability. Once we have a definite warning signal it will be too late to do anything about it, given the inertia in the system.
Overall the new study adds significantly to the rising concern about an AMOC collapse in the not too distant future. It thus adds even more weight to recent reports sounding strong warning sirens, such as the OECD Climate Tipping Points report of December 2022 and the Global Tipping Points report published December 2023. We will continue to ignore this risk at our peril.
https://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2024/02/new-study-suggests-the-at...
-------------------------------------------------------
René M. van Westen et al. 2024. Physics-based early warning signal shows that AMOC is on tipping course. Science Advances, 9 Feb 2024, Vol 10, Issue 6. DOI: 10.1126/sciadv.adk1189. https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/sciadv.adk1189
{See Fig. 3. Surface temperature response during AMOC collapse.
... (C) Temperature difference (with respect to model year 1600) for five different cities, including the AMOC strength {1600-2000 for London, Madrid, Vienna, Bergen, Reykjavick}}.
_______________________________________
What is happening in the Atlantic Ocean to the AMOC?
Stefan | 24 Jul 2023
https://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2023/07/what-is-happening-in-the-...
Severin Carrell | 20 Mar 2024 04.43 EDT
...In a damning report submitted to the Scottish parliament, the UK Climate Change Committee (CCC) accused the Scottish government of repeatedly failing to live up to its legally binding targets.
...The CCC’s criticisms have been growing in intensity for some years. In the Scottish government, the Scottish National party shares power with the Scottish Greens after signing a cooperation agreement in 2021 that prioritised action on climate. Humza Yousaf, who succeeded Nicola Sturgeon as first minister and as SNP leader, has put less emphasis on climate action, despite its significance in the deal with the Greens.
With the SNP facing significant losses in the next general election, he has endorsed the oil industry’s position that heavier taxes to fund a transition to clean energy are unjustified, cut funding for forestry and watered down proposals to switch farming subsidies towards nature recovery.
In its annual progress report to Holyrood, the CCC found:
Scotland would need to cut emissions across housing, transport, farming and waste by ninefold in the next six years to meet its 2030 target.
Its tree-planting, peatland restoration, heat pump installation, recycling and electric van rates are “significantly” off track.
On transport alone, the government had to achieve a fourfold increase in its annual reductions to hit the 2030 target.
It has no strategy to decarbonise aviation, and has failed to use the powers to set higher air departure taxes given to Holyrood in 2016.
In one of the few policy areas it applauded, the CCC said the government’s “bold” heat in buildings bill could become a template for the rest of the UK if it was implemented as planned.
As well as banning gas and oil-fired heating by 2045, the bill will mandate minimum energy efficiency standards for private and rented homes and require lower carbon heating to be installed when a house is sold...
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2024/mar/20/scotlands-pledge-cut-emissio...
_______________________________
New study suggests the Atlantic {meridian} overturning circulation AMOC “is on tipping course”
Stefan | 9 Feb 2024
A new paper was published in Science Advances today. Its title says what it is about: “Physics-based early warning signal shows that AMOC is on tipping course.” The study follows one by Danish colleagues which made headlines last July, likewise looking for early warning signals for approaching an AMOC tipping point (we discussed it here), but using rather different data and methods.
...Given the impacts, the risk of an AMOC collapse is something to be avoided at all cost. As I’ve said before: the issue is not whether we’re sure this is going to happen. The issue is that we need to rule this out at 99.9 % probability. Once we have a definite warning signal it will be too late to do anything about it, given the inertia in the system.
Overall the new study adds significantly to the rising concern about an AMOC collapse in the not too distant future. It thus adds even more weight to recent reports sounding strong warning sirens, such as the OECD Climate Tipping Points report of December 2022 and the Global Tipping Points report published December 2023. We will continue to ignore this risk at our peril.
https://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2024/02/new-study-suggests-the-at...
-------------------------------------------------------
René M. van Westen et al. 2024. Physics-based early warning signal shows that AMOC is on tipping course. Science Advances, 9 Feb 2024, Vol 10, Issue 6. DOI: 10.1126/sciadv.adk1189. https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/sciadv.adk1189
{See Fig. 3. Surface temperature response during AMOC collapse.
... (C) Temperature difference (with respect to model year 1600) for five different cities, including the AMOC strength {1600-2000 for London, Madrid, Vienna, Bergen, Reykjavick}}.
_______________________________________
What is happening in the Atlantic Ocean to the AMOC?
Stefan | 24 Jul 2023
https://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2023/07/what-is-happening-in-the-...
110margd
Max Wilbert @MaxWilbert | 7:01 PM · Mar 20, 2024:
Community Organizer 🌎 Author of the Biocentric newsletter and "Bright Green Lies” book
We are seeing Joseph Tainter's "Collapse of Complex Societies" thesis playing out in real-time.
A complex society trying to solve problems by adding more complexity, w/ diminishing returns.
Infographic 300 years technological development and metal consumption ( https://twitter.com/MaxWilbert/status/1770586589586198985/photo/1 )
--------------------------------------
{Academic presentation}
Collapse of Complex Societies by Dr. Joseph Tainter (1 of 7) (14:46)
Local Future | Dec 10, 2010
The collapse of complex societies of the past can inform the present on the risks of collapse. Dr. Joseph Tainter, author of the book The Collapse of Complex Societies, and featured in Leonardo Dicaprio's film The Eleventh Hour, details the factors that led to the collapse of past civilizations including the Roman Empire.
This is part 1 of 7 of a keynote talk delivered to the 2010 International Conference on Sustainability: Energy, Economy, and Environment organized by Local Future nonprofit and directed by Aaron Wissner.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ddmQhIiVM48
------------------------------------------------
{Interview, persistence of West discussed at 30:00 }
The Collapse of Complex Societies - Professor Joseph Tainter (52:49)
Plans B | Apr 10, 2023
Professor Joseph Tainter is an American anthropologist and historian studied anthropology at the University of California, Santa Barbara, and Northwestern University, where he received his Ph.D. in 1975. As of 2012 he holds a professorship in the Department of Environment and Society at Utah State University.
In this interview Professor Tainter discusses the thesis of his widely acclaimed work “The Collapse of Complex Societies”, 25 years after its publication in 1988. His book is among great classics of the study of collapse. In my view a work whose quality and relevance is comparable to Limits to Growth.
Link to his book:
https://www.abebooks.com/book-search/...
We discuss the following with Prof. Tainter:
1) What is “collapse”? What is “complexity”?
2) Can you explain your theory of decreasing marginal returns over complexity?
3) What was particularly "complex" with the Western Roman Empire?
4) Why has the Western Roman Empire collapsed while the Eastern Roman Empire has not collapsed?
5) Why do you think Western society has NOT collapsed for 1500 years now? Why has it NOT collapsed over the last 200 years?
6) What major instances of decreasing marginal returns over complexity do you observe in global modern society?
7) What do you think of “Limits to Growth” by Meadows et. al?
Transcript...
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=X3LP5IMWe84
_________________________________________
margd: Reminded me of evolution. After a catastrophe extinction event, major niches are quickly filled with new species. But it takes a lo-ng time to re-realize the richness of the community lost. That's because future species are filling niches created by the biology of the initial new species.
Community Organizer 🌎 Author of the Biocentric newsletter and "Bright Green Lies” book
We are seeing Joseph Tainter's "Collapse of Complex Societies" thesis playing out in real-time.
A complex society trying to solve problems by adding more complexity, w/ diminishing returns.
Infographic 300 years technological development and metal consumption ( https://twitter.com/MaxWilbert/status/1770586589586198985/photo/1 )
--------------------------------------
{Academic presentation}
Collapse of Complex Societies by Dr. Joseph Tainter (1 of 7) (14:46)
Local Future | Dec 10, 2010
The collapse of complex societies of the past can inform the present on the risks of collapse. Dr. Joseph Tainter, author of the book The Collapse of Complex Societies, and featured in Leonardo Dicaprio's film The Eleventh Hour, details the factors that led to the collapse of past civilizations including the Roman Empire.
This is part 1 of 7 of a keynote talk delivered to the 2010 International Conference on Sustainability: Energy, Economy, and Environment organized by Local Future nonprofit and directed by Aaron Wissner.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ddmQhIiVM48
------------------------------------------------
{Interview, persistence of West discussed at 30:00 }
The Collapse of Complex Societies - Professor Joseph Tainter (52:49)
Plans B | Apr 10, 2023
Professor Joseph Tainter is an American anthropologist and historian studied anthropology at the University of California, Santa Barbara, and Northwestern University, where he received his Ph.D. in 1975. As of 2012 he holds a professorship in the Department of Environment and Society at Utah State University.
In this interview Professor Tainter discusses the thesis of his widely acclaimed work “The Collapse of Complex Societies”, 25 years after its publication in 1988. His book is among great classics of the study of collapse. In my view a work whose quality and relevance is comparable to Limits to Growth.
Link to his book:
https://www.abebooks.com/book-search/...
We discuss the following with Prof. Tainter:
1) What is “collapse”? What is “complexity”?
2) Can you explain your theory of decreasing marginal returns over complexity?
3) What was particularly "complex" with the Western Roman Empire?
4) Why has the Western Roman Empire collapsed while the Eastern Roman Empire has not collapsed?
5) Why do you think Western society has NOT collapsed for 1500 years now? Why has it NOT collapsed over the last 200 years?
6) What major instances of decreasing marginal returns over complexity do you observe in global modern society?
7) What do you think of “Limits to Growth” by Meadows et. al?
Transcript...
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=X3LP5IMWe84
_________________________________________
margd: Reminded me of evolution. After a catastrophe extinction event, major niches are quickly filled with new species. But it takes a lo-ng time to re-realize the richness of the community lost. That's because future species are filling niches created by the biology of the initial new species.
111margd
Aashis Joshi🍉🍉 (aashisjoshi.bsky.social) @aashisjo | 3:54 AM · Mar 21, 2024:
PhD candidate @TPMTUDelft in climate adaptation 🌏 * When faced with our own destruction, we act against reason * {The Netherlands}
https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1770720743057240485.html
The climate is a complex system that has always changed, although it had been remarkably stable over the past 10k years. Civilizations in the past have frequently collapsed, primarily as a result of crop failures when climate change & ecological degradation were severe enough. 1/
Av lifespan of ancient civilizations ( https://twitter.com/aashisjo/status/1770720743057240485/photo/1 )
In the modern industrial era, however, fossil fuels & all the extractivism, technology & industrial processes they power have shielded us from the vagaries of the earth’s climate & enabled human population to consume & grow beyond the carrying capacity of its ecosystems. 2/
CO2 emitted by country/region. 1850-2014 ( https://twitter.com/aashisjo/status/1770723226311627119/photo/1 )
As our population & energy & materials consumption (the economy) keeps growing by devouring wild habitats & ecosystems—for agriculture & livestock & to extract resources—they leave in their wake a wrecked & polluted biosphere, a rapidly inhospitable climate, & what will... 3/
Losses associated w food production ( https://twitter.com/aashisjo/status/1770723609113219184/photo/1 )
... likely turn out the worst mass extinction event in 100s of millions of years. There is a limit to what our finite planet & its ecosystems can endure before breaking & in turn unleashing mayhem on ourselves. 4/
% mammals & birds wild, human-associated (https://twitter.com/aashisjo/status/1770724013729325496/photo/1)
wildlife decline 1970-2016 ( https://twitter.com/aashisjo/status/1770724013729325496/photo/2 )
Now the combined & cascading effects of modern industrial humankind’s all-encompassing destruction of our climate & the biosphere is set to overwhelm our technological & political capacity to maintain the stability of the modern world (while keeping in mind how unjust... 5/
... & dysfunctional it already is—a feature by design of the extractivist-colonialist techno-industrial capitalist world order).
The most devastating impact of the climate & ecological damage we’ve caused is going to be on our ability to grow sufficient food for 8bn people. 6/
Graph population, resources, food, etc. 1900-2100 ( https://twitter.com/aashisjo/status/1770725176126091425/photo/1 )
Vast numbers of people will also need to migrate to different places & across borders to escape heatwaves, droughts, floods, famine, sea level rise & wars & conflicts. 7/
How can we ever begin to realistically & adequately address the terrifying existential crises that loom on the horizon when we’re so stuck in our artificial social-political-economic creations such as nation-states & the neoliberal techno-industrial capitalist system? 8/
These modern ways of organizing societies lie at the root of our environmental destruction as well as social & geopolitical inequities & injustices, but they are incredibly resistant to reform & change as they have a cultural momentum & are backed by the wealthy & powerful...
9/
... classes who wield control over institutions & technologies of violence & over most peoples’ livelihoods.
How do we collectively escape the oppressive & ecocidal death trap of modern civilization? Our future & the future of all remaining life on our planet depends on it. 10/
PhD candidate @TPMTUDelft in climate adaptation 🌏 * When faced with our own destruction, we act against reason * {The Netherlands}
https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1770720743057240485.html
The climate is a complex system that has always changed, although it had been remarkably stable over the past 10k years. Civilizations in the past have frequently collapsed, primarily as a result of crop failures when climate change & ecological degradation were severe enough. 1/
Av lifespan of ancient civilizations ( https://twitter.com/aashisjo/status/1770720743057240485/photo/1 )
In the modern industrial era, however, fossil fuels & all the extractivism, technology & industrial processes they power have shielded us from the vagaries of the earth’s climate & enabled human population to consume & grow beyond the carrying capacity of its ecosystems. 2/
CO2 emitted by country/region. 1850-2014 ( https://twitter.com/aashisjo/status/1770723226311627119/photo/1 )
As our population & energy & materials consumption (the economy) keeps growing by devouring wild habitats & ecosystems—for agriculture & livestock & to extract resources—they leave in their wake a wrecked & polluted biosphere, a rapidly inhospitable climate, & what will... 3/
Losses associated w food production ( https://twitter.com/aashisjo/status/1770723609113219184/photo/1 )
... likely turn out the worst mass extinction event in 100s of millions of years. There is a limit to what our finite planet & its ecosystems can endure before breaking & in turn unleashing mayhem on ourselves. 4/
% mammals & birds wild, human-associated (https://twitter.com/aashisjo/status/1770724013729325496/photo/1)
wildlife decline 1970-2016 ( https://twitter.com/aashisjo/status/1770724013729325496/photo/2 )
Now the combined & cascading effects of modern industrial humankind’s all-encompassing destruction of our climate & the biosphere is set to overwhelm our technological & political capacity to maintain the stability of the modern world (while keeping in mind how unjust... 5/
... & dysfunctional it already is—a feature by design of the extractivist-colonialist techno-industrial capitalist world order).
The most devastating impact of the climate & ecological damage we’ve caused is going to be on our ability to grow sufficient food for 8bn people. 6/
Graph population, resources, food, etc. 1900-2100 ( https://twitter.com/aashisjo/status/1770725176126091425/photo/1 )
Vast numbers of people will also need to migrate to different places & across borders to escape heatwaves, droughts, floods, famine, sea level rise & wars & conflicts. 7/
How can we ever begin to realistically & adequately address the terrifying existential crises that loom on the horizon when we’re so stuck in our artificial social-political-economic creations such as nation-states & the neoliberal techno-industrial capitalist system? 8/
These modern ways of organizing societies lie at the root of our environmental destruction as well as social & geopolitical inequities & injustices, but they are incredibly resistant to reform & change as they have a cultural momentum & are backed by the wealthy & powerful...
9/
... classes who wield control over institutions & technologies of violence & over most peoples’ livelihoods.
How do we collectively escape the oppressive & ecocidal death trap of modern civilization? Our future & the future of all remaining life on our planet depends on it. 10/
112margd
Global carbon emissions from fossil fuels reached record high in 2023
University of Exeter and Stanford Doerr School of Sustainability | December 5, 2023
Declining coal use helped shrink U.S. emissions 3%, according to new estimates from the Global Carbon Project, even as global emissions keep the world on a path to exceed 1.5 degrees Celsius of warming before 2030 and 1.7 degrees soon after...
https://sustainability.stanford.edu/news/global-carbon-emissions-fossil-fuels-re...
University of Exeter and Stanford Doerr School of Sustainability | December 5, 2023
Declining coal use helped shrink U.S. emissions 3%, according to new estimates from the Global Carbon Project, even as global emissions keep the world on a path to exceed 1.5 degrees Celsius of warming before 2030 and 1.7 degrees soon after...
https://sustainability.stanford.edu/news/global-carbon-emissions-fossil-fuels-re...
113margd
West Africa heatwave was supercharged by climate crisis, study finds
High temperatures in February affected millions of people and put further pressure on chocolate prices
Damian Carrington | 21 Mar 2024
A searing heatwave that struck west Africa in February was made 4C hotter and 10 times more likely by human-caused global heating, a study has found.
The heat affected millions of people but the number of early deaths or cases of illness are unknown, due to a lack of reporting.
The region is the world’s largest exporter of cocoa, and farmers said the heat weakened their trees, which were already damaged from extreme rainfall in December. Prices for cocoa, the key ingredient in chocolate, have soared in recent years due to climate-related damage to the crops, and the latest heatwave adds further pressure.
The study, by the World Weather Attribution group of scientists, found that the heatwave would have happened less than once a century in a world without climate change. But instead it was a once-a-decade event, with an average of 1.2C of global heating over the last four years.
If emissions from burning fossil fuels are not rapidly reduced and global temperatures rise to 2C above pre-industrial levels, such heatwaves will occur every other year, the scientists said...
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2024/mar/21/west-africa-heatwave-climate...
High temperatures in February affected millions of people and put further pressure on chocolate prices
Damian Carrington | 21 Mar 2024
A searing heatwave that struck west Africa in February was made 4C hotter and 10 times more likely by human-caused global heating, a study has found.
The heat affected millions of people but the number of early deaths or cases of illness are unknown, due to a lack of reporting.
The region is the world’s largest exporter of cocoa, and farmers said the heat weakened their trees, which were already damaged from extreme rainfall in December. Prices for cocoa, the key ingredient in chocolate, have soared in recent years due to climate-related damage to the crops, and the latest heatwave adds further pressure.
The study, by the World Weather Attribution group of scientists, found that the heatwave would have happened less than once a century in a world without climate change. But instead it was a once-a-decade event, with an average of 1.2C of global heating over the last four years.
If emissions from burning fossil fuels are not rapidly reduced and global temperatures rise to 2C above pre-industrial levels, such heatwaves will occur every other year, the scientists said...
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2024/mar/21/west-africa-heatwave-climate...
114margd
FL is happy to accept fed FEMA dollars, though...
Florida is about to erase climate change from most of its laws
Kate Yoder | 25 March 2024
In Florida, the effects of climate change are hard to ignore, no matter your politics. It’s the hottest state — Miami spent a record 46 days above a heat index of 100 degrees last summer — and many homes and businesses are clustered along beachfront areas threatened by rising seas and hurricanes. The Republican-led legislature has responded with more than $640 million for resilience projects to adapt to coastal threats.
But the same politicians don’t seem ready to acknowledge the root cause of these problems. A bill awaiting signature from Governor Ron DeSantis... would ban offshore wind energy, relax regulations on natural gas pipelines, and delete the majority of mentions of climate change from existing state laws...
https://grist.org/politics/florida-erasing-climate-change-laws-desantis/
Florida is about to erase climate change from most of its laws
Kate Yoder | 25 March 2024
In Florida, the effects of climate change are hard to ignore, no matter your politics. It’s the hottest state — Miami spent a record 46 days above a heat index of 100 degrees last summer — and many homes and businesses are clustered along beachfront areas threatened by rising seas and hurricanes. The Republican-led legislature has responded with more than $640 million for resilience projects to adapt to coastal threats.
But the same politicians don’t seem ready to acknowledge the root cause of these problems. A bill awaiting signature from Governor Ron DeSantis... would ban offshore wind energy, relax regulations on natural gas pipelines, and delete the majority of mentions of climate change from existing state laws...
https://grist.org/politics/florida-erasing-climate-change-laws-desantis/
115margd
Jane van Dis MD 🌎 @janevandis | 1:09 PM · Mar 25, 2024:
Assistant Prof ObGyn
If a Cat 5 were to hit Miami, and caused 1.3T in damage… potentially every person in FL would be charged 60k in taxes … the math isn’t mathing ????
@WeatherProf can you help explain?
16:16 (https://twitter.com/janevandis/status/1772309950473076927)
From youtube.com
Natural Disasters: US Home Insurance Risks Financial Crisis
PBS | 03.19.2024
Read Transcript
https://www.pbs.org/wnet/amanpour-and-company/video/natural-disasters-us-home-in...
-----------------------------------------------
Jeff Berardelli @WeatherProf · 17h
WFLA-TV (Tampa Bay) Chief Meteorologist and Climate Specialist. BS Atmospheric Sciences Cornell U. MA Climate Columbia U. Past CBS News NY and Miami, Tampa, WPB
Wow. I’ll have to look into it or ask an expert on insurance
Assistant Prof ObGyn
If a Cat 5 were to hit Miami, and caused 1.3T in damage… potentially every person in FL would be charged 60k in taxes … the math isn’t mathing ????
@WeatherProf can you help explain?
16:16 (https://twitter.com/janevandis/status/1772309950473076927)
From youtube.com
Natural Disasters: US Home Insurance Risks Financial Crisis
PBS | 03.19.2024
Read Transcript
https://www.pbs.org/wnet/amanpour-and-company/video/natural-disasters-us-home-in...
-----------------------------------------------
Jeff Berardelli @WeatherProf · 17h
WFLA-TV (Tampa Bay) Chief Meteorologist and Climate Specialist. BS Atmospheric Sciences Cornell U. MA Climate Columbia U. Past CBS News NY and Miami, Tampa, WPB
Wow. I’ll have to look into it or ask an expert on insurance
116margd
Steamy Relationships: How Atmospheric Water Vapor Amplifies Earth’s Greenhouse Effect
NASA Science Editorial Team | Feb 08, 2022
... As greenhouse gases like carbon dioxide and methane increase, Earth’s temperature rises in response. This increases evaporation from both water and land areas. Because warmer air holds more moisture, its concentration of water vapor increases. Specifically, this happens because water vapor does not condense and precipitate out of the atmosphere as easily at higher temperatures. The water vapor then absorbs heat radiated from Earth and prevents it from escaping out to space. This further warms the atmosphere, resulting in even more water vapor in the atmosphere. This is what scientists call a "positive feedback loop." Scientists estimate this effect more than doubles the warming that would happen due to increasing carbon dioxide alone.
A Different Breed of Greenhouse Gas
Carbon Dioxide Is Still King
Wreaking Havoc on the Global Water Cycle
https://science.nasa.gov/earth/climate-change/steamy-relationships-how-atmospher...
NASA Science Editorial Team | Feb 08, 2022
... As greenhouse gases like carbon dioxide and methane increase, Earth’s temperature rises in response. This increases evaporation from both water and land areas. Because warmer air holds more moisture, its concentration of water vapor increases. Specifically, this happens because water vapor does not condense and precipitate out of the atmosphere as easily at higher temperatures. The water vapor then absorbs heat radiated from Earth and prevents it from escaping out to space. This further warms the atmosphere, resulting in even more water vapor in the atmosphere. This is what scientists call a "positive feedback loop." Scientists estimate this effect more than doubles the warming that would happen due to increasing carbon dioxide alone.
A Different Breed of Greenhouse Gas
Carbon Dioxide Is Still King
Wreaking Havoc on the Global Water Cycle
https://science.nasa.gov/earth/climate-change/steamy-relationships-how-atmospher...
117margd
Earth's Rotation Is Changing Because of Melting Polar Ice
Jess Thomson | Mar 27, 2024
...the "leap second" due to be added to Coordinated Universal Time (UTC) in 2026 may now be delayed until 2029, thanks to melting polar caps....
https://www.newsweek.com/earth-rotation-changing-polar-ice-melting-leap-second-1...
----------------------------------------------
Duncan Carr Agnew 2024. A global timekeeping problem postponed by global warming, Nature 27 March 2024. https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-024-07170-0
Jess Thomson | Mar 27, 2024
...the "leap second" due to be added to Coordinated Universal Time (UTC) in 2026 may now be delayed until 2029, thanks to melting polar caps....
https://www.newsweek.com/earth-rotation-changing-polar-ice-melting-leap-second-1...
----------------------------------------------
Duncan Carr Agnew 2024. A global timekeeping problem postponed by global warming, Nature 27 March 2024. https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-024-07170-0
118margd
Solar panels in Sahara could boost renewable energy but damage the global climate – here’s why
Zhengyao Lu and Benjamin Smith | February 11, 2021
...A greener Sahara
A 2018 study used a climate model to simulate the effects of lower albedo on the land surface of deserts caused by installing massive solar farms. Albedo is a measure of how well surfaces reflect sunlight. Sand, for example, is much more reflective than a solar panel and so has a higher albedo.
The model revealed that when the size of the solar farm reaches 20% of the total area of the Sahara, it triggers a feedback loop. Heat emitted by the darker solar panels (compared to the highly reflective desert soil) creates a steep temperature difference between the land and the surrounding oceans that ultimately lowers surface air pressure and causes moist air to rise and condense into raindrops. With more monsoon rainfall, plants grow and the desert reflects less of the sun’s energy, since vegetation absorbs light better than sand and soil. With more plants present, more water is evaporated, creating a more humid environment that causes vegetation to spread.
This scenario might seem fanciful, but studies suggest that a similar feedback loop kept much of the Sahara green during the African Humid Period, which only ended 5,000 years ago.
So, a giant solar farm could generate ample energy to meet global demand and simultaneously turn one of the most hostile environments on Earth into a habitable oasis. Sounds perfect, right?
...Drought in the Amazon, cyclones in Vietnam
...We are only beginning to understand the potential consequences of establishing massive solar farms in the world’s deserts. Solutions like this may help society transition from fossil energy, but Earth system studies like ours underscore the importance of considering the numerous coupled responses of the atmosphere, oceans and land surface when examining their benefits and risks.
https://theconversation.com/solar-panels-in-sahara-could-boost-renewable-energy-...
-----------------------------------------
Zhengyao Lu et al. 2024. Impacts of Large-Scale Sahara Solar Farms on Global Climate and Vegetation Cover. Geophysical Research Letters
Volume 48, Issue2, Volume 48, Issue 2, 28 January 2021. https://doi.org/10.1029/2020GL090789 https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1029/2020GL090789
Zhengyao Lu and Benjamin Smith | February 11, 2021
...A greener Sahara
A 2018 study used a climate model to simulate the effects of lower albedo on the land surface of deserts caused by installing massive solar farms. Albedo is a measure of how well surfaces reflect sunlight. Sand, for example, is much more reflective than a solar panel and so has a higher albedo.
The model revealed that when the size of the solar farm reaches 20% of the total area of the Sahara, it triggers a feedback loop. Heat emitted by the darker solar panels (compared to the highly reflective desert soil) creates a steep temperature difference between the land and the surrounding oceans that ultimately lowers surface air pressure and causes moist air to rise and condense into raindrops. With more monsoon rainfall, plants grow and the desert reflects less of the sun’s energy, since vegetation absorbs light better than sand and soil. With more plants present, more water is evaporated, creating a more humid environment that causes vegetation to spread.
This scenario might seem fanciful, but studies suggest that a similar feedback loop kept much of the Sahara green during the African Humid Period, which only ended 5,000 years ago.
So, a giant solar farm could generate ample energy to meet global demand and simultaneously turn one of the most hostile environments on Earth into a habitable oasis. Sounds perfect, right?
...Drought in the Amazon, cyclones in Vietnam
...We are only beginning to understand the potential consequences of establishing massive solar farms in the world’s deserts. Solutions like this may help society transition from fossil energy, but Earth system studies like ours underscore the importance of considering the numerous coupled responses of the atmosphere, oceans and land surface when examining their benefits and risks.
https://theconversation.com/solar-panels-in-sahara-could-boost-renewable-energy-...
-----------------------------------------
Zhengyao Lu et al. 2024. Impacts of Large-Scale Sahara Solar Farms on Global Climate and Vegetation Cover. Geophysical Research Letters
Volume 48, Issue2, Volume 48, Issue 2, 28 January 2021. https://doi.org/10.1029/2020GL090789 https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1029/2020GL090789
119margd
Wall Street Silver @WallStreetSilv · Mar 27, 2024:
A ton of Cocoa is now worth more than a ton of Copper.
What the heck is going on? 🚨
Diagram tree-canopy-ht shade cocoa bushes (https://twitter.com/peakaustria/status/1773191635796652485/photo/1)
---------------------------------------------
W.J. Blaser-Hart et al. 2021. The effectiveness of cocoa agroforests depends on shade-tree canopy height. Agriculture, Ecosystems & Environment, Volume 322, 1 December 2021, 107676. https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0167880921003807
Highlights
• Benefits of shade trees in agroforests are influenced by shade-tree canopy height.
• Low-canopy trees reduce cocoa yields likely because of higher competition for light.
• Elevated-canopy trees have neutral effects on cocoa yields, and store more carbon.
• Low- and elevated-canopy trees are equally effective at mediating climate extremes.
• Elevated-canopy shade trees improve the overall effectiveness of agroforests.
Abstract
Agroforestry is often proposed as a ‘climate smart’ strategy for allowing agriculture to both adapt to and mitigate climate change and sustainably increase agricultural production. This is because shade trees in agroforests may buffer growing conditions by creating favorable microclimates (climate-change adaptation), and because shade trees can sequester additional carbon from the atmosphere (climate-change mitigation). However, a major challenge for agroforestry is to maximize these potential benefits while minimizing costs to production as a consequence of resource competition between shade trees and the primary crop. While the effects of shade-tree density and canopy cover on the costs and benefits of agroforests are increasingly well understood, the effects of the traits of shade trees on the effectiveness of agroforests have received less attention. Here, we assess how shade trees with different crown architecture influence production, adaptation, and mitigation goals in a major cocoa growing region in Ghana, West Africa. We quantified the effects of shade trees from nine different species across two classes of height-to-crown-base (low vs. elevated canopies) on yield, microclimate, and carbon storage. We show that shade trees with elevated crowns had large positive effects on carbon storage and neutral effects on yield, while shade trees with low crowns had smaller effects on carbon storage and simultaneously caused larger reductions in incoming light, which was associated with lower yield. Trees of both crown classes were equally effective at buffering sub-canopy temperatures and vapor pressure deficit, although trees with low crowns maintained higher relative humidity. Taken together, our results suggest that shade-tree species with elevated crowns improve the effectiveness of cocoa agroforests by providing maximum benefits for climate-change adaptation and mitigation, while minimizing short-term costs to cocoa production.
...Of the many traits that can vary between shade-tree species, height of the shade-tree canopy above the primary crop is a gross, easily measured trait that is likely to strongly influence climate-smart objectives. For example, while all trees provide some shade, canopy height is likely to influence the amount of light penetration to understory crops, thus influencing the outcome of light competition between trees and crops ... Moreover, trees with canopies well above the primary crop may be less effective at protecting understory crops from ambient high temperatures and low relative humidity, and so may be less effective than low-canopy species at buffering crop microclimates. Finally, for the same amount of shade-tree cover, tall-statured trees that stand well above the understory crop are likely to be more effective at sequestering carbon simply because larger trees tend to have higher biomass ... Thus, this single tree trait is likely to be a strong driver of the effectiveness of agroforests for meeting production, and climate-change adaptation and mitigation goals. Despite its potential importance, however, the influence of shade-tree canopy height on the effectiveness of agroforests has received little empirical attention.
...Ghana, West Africa, noting that this region produces approximately 70% of the world's cocoa and the suitability for cocoa production across large parts of the West African cocoa belt is expected to decrease with climate change... Thus, improving the ability of agroforests to buffer climate extremes and sequester carbon may be particularly important for guaranteeing the long-term sustainability of cocoa production in this region
...Discussion
The ability of agroforests to meet the objectives of climate smart agriculture may be difficult if shade trees have a mix of costs and benefits for production, and climate-change adaptation and mitigation. Therefore, a key challenge for agroforestry is to maximize the benefits of shade trees while minimizing the costs ... We investigated how the benefits and costs of shade trees for production, and climate-change adaptation and mitigation...
A ton of Cocoa is now worth more than a ton of Copper.
What the heck is going on? 🚨
Diagram tree-canopy-ht shade cocoa bushes (https://twitter.com/peakaustria/status/1773191635796652485/photo/1)
---------------------------------------------
W.J. Blaser-Hart et al. 2021. The effectiveness of cocoa agroforests depends on shade-tree canopy height. Agriculture, Ecosystems & Environment, Volume 322, 1 December 2021, 107676. https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0167880921003807
Highlights
• Benefits of shade trees in agroforests are influenced by shade-tree canopy height.
• Low-canopy trees reduce cocoa yields likely because of higher competition for light.
• Elevated-canopy trees have neutral effects on cocoa yields, and store more carbon.
• Low- and elevated-canopy trees are equally effective at mediating climate extremes.
• Elevated-canopy shade trees improve the overall effectiveness of agroforests.
Abstract
Agroforestry is often proposed as a ‘climate smart’ strategy for allowing agriculture to both adapt to and mitigate climate change and sustainably increase agricultural production. This is because shade trees in agroforests may buffer growing conditions by creating favorable microclimates (climate-change adaptation), and because shade trees can sequester additional carbon from the atmosphere (climate-change mitigation). However, a major challenge for agroforestry is to maximize these potential benefits while minimizing costs to production as a consequence of resource competition between shade trees and the primary crop. While the effects of shade-tree density and canopy cover on the costs and benefits of agroforests are increasingly well understood, the effects of the traits of shade trees on the effectiveness of agroforests have received less attention. Here, we assess how shade trees with different crown architecture influence production, adaptation, and mitigation goals in a major cocoa growing region in Ghana, West Africa. We quantified the effects of shade trees from nine different species across two classes of height-to-crown-base (low vs. elevated canopies) on yield, microclimate, and carbon storage. We show that shade trees with elevated crowns had large positive effects on carbon storage and neutral effects on yield, while shade trees with low crowns had smaller effects on carbon storage and simultaneously caused larger reductions in incoming light, which was associated with lower yield. Trees of both crown classes were equally effective at buffering sub-canopy temperatures and vapor pressure deficit, although trees with low crowns maintained higher relative humidity. Taken together, our results suggest that shade-tree species with elevated crowns improve the effectiveness of cocoa agroforests by providing maximum benefits for climate-change adaptation and mitigation, while minimizing short-term costs to cocoa production.
...Of the many traits that can vary between shade-tree species, height of the shade-tree canopy above the primary crop is a gross, easily measured trait that is likely to strongly influence climate-smart objectives. For example, while all trees provide some shade, canopy height is likely to influence the amount of light penetration to understory crops, thus influencing the outcome of light competition between trees and crops ... Moreover, trees with canopies well above the primary crop may be less effective at protecting understory crops from ambient high temperatures and low relative humidity, and so may be less effective than low-canopy species at buffering crop microclimates. Finally, for the same amount of shade-tree cover, tall-statured trees that stand well above the understory crop are likely to be more effective at sequestering carbon simply because larger trees tend to have higher biomass ... Thus, this single tree trait is likely to be a strong driver of the effectiveness of agroforests for meeting production, and climate-change adaptation and mitigation goals. Despite its potential importance, however, the influence of shade-tree canopy height on the effectiveness of agroforests has received little empirical attention.
...Ghana, West Africa, noting that this region produces approximately 70% of the world's cocoa and the suitability for cocoa production across large parts of the West African cocoa belt is expected to decrease with climate change... Thus, improving the ability of agroforests to buffer climate extremes and sequester carbon may be particularly important for guaranteeing the long-term sustainability of cocoa production in this region
...Discussion
The ability of agroforests to meet the objectives of climate smart agriculture may be difficult if shade trees have a mix of costs and benefits for production, and climate-change adaptation and mitigation. Therefore, a key challenge for agroforestry is to maximize the benefits of shade trees while minimizing the costs ... We investigated how the benefits and costs of shade trees for production, and climate-change adaptation and mitigation...
120margd
Another source of misery in Sudan...
The map above shows air temperatures across East Africa on March 18, 2024. The map was produced by combining satellite observations with temperatures predicted by a version of the Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) model, which uses meteorological observations and mathematical equations to represent physical processes in the atmosphere. Colors from white to red represent temperatures at about 2 meters (6.5 feet) above the ground at about 12:00 Universal Time. The darkest reds indicate temperatures of 45°C (113°F). Output from the GEOS model indicates that the highest temperature recorded in the region on March 18 was 45°C near the border of Sudan and South Sudan.
Heat Wave in East Africa
18 March 2024
...death due to excessive heat were reported
...The map above shows air temperatures across East Africa on March 18, 2024. The map was produced by combining satellite observations with temperatures predicted by a version of the Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) model, which uses meteorological observations and mathematical equations to represent physical processes in the atmosphere. Colors from white to red represent temperatures at about 2 meters (6.5 feet) above the ground at about 12:00 Universal Time. The darkest reds indicate temperatures of 45°C (113°F). Output from the GEOS model indicates that the highest temperature recorded in the region on March 18 was 45°C near the border of Sudan and South Sudan...
https://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/images/152600/heat-wave-in-east-africa
Map heat S. Sudan area ( https://twitter.com/peakaustria/status/1773184288202392041/photo/1 )
The map above shows air temperatures across East Africa on March 18, 2024. The map was produced by combining satellite observations with temperatures predicted by a version of the Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) model, which uses meteorological observations and mathematical equations to represent physical processes in the atmosphere. Colors from white to red represent temperatures at about 2 meters (6.5 feet) above the ground at about 12:00 Universal Time. The darkest reds indicate temperatures of 45°C (113°F). Output from the GEOS model indicates that the highest temperature recorded in the region on March 18 was 45°C near the border of Sudan and South Sudan.
Heat Wave in East Africa
18 March 2024
...death due to excessive heat were reported
...The map above shows air temperatures across East Africa on March 18, 2024. The map was produced by combining satellite observations with temperatures predicted by a version of the Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) model, which uses meteorological observations and mathematical equations to represent physical processes in the atmosphere. Colors from white to red represent temperatures at about 2 meters (6.5 feet) above the ground at about 12:00 Universal Time. The darkest reds indicate temperatures of 45°C (113°F). Output from the GEOS model indicates that the highest temperature recorded in the region on March 18 was 45°C near the border of Sudan and South Sudan...
https://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/images/152600/heat-wave-in-east-africa
Map heat S. Sudan area ( https://twitter.com/peakaustria/status/1773184288202392041/photo/1 )
121margd
Peter Dynes @PGDynes | 5:32 PM · Mar 29, 2024:
Central and West #Africa are the hottest places on Earth today. #Chad was baking in 45C temperatures, and most of the region is seeing 40C plus. This is at 1.4C over and already pushing the limits of human #survivability. #Adaptation and #Mitigation for this region are urgent.
Map Africa 2m temp 29 March ( https://twitter.com/PGDynes/status/1773825471865663536/photo/1 )
Central and West #Africa are the hottest places on Earth today. #Chad was baking in 45C temperatures, and most of the region is seeing 40C plus. This is at 1.4C over and already pushing the limits of human #survivability. #Adaptation and #Mitigation for this region are urgent.
Map Africa 2m temp 29 March ( https://twitter.com/PGDynes/status/1773825471865663536/photo/1 )
122margd
At 330 Kelvin (56.85 C, 134.33F), much water could escape to space... Not that more than the simplest organisms could survive could those temps...
Max Popp et al. 2016. Transition to a Moist Greenhouse with CO2 and solar forcing. Nature Communications volume 7, Article number: 10627 (9 Feb 2016) https://www.nature.com/articles/ncomms10627
Abstract
Water-rich planets such as Earth are expected to become eventually uninhabitable, because liquid water turns unstable at the surface as temperatures increase with solar luminosity. Whether a large increase of atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases such as CO2 could also destroy the habitability of water-rich planets has remained unclear. Here we show with three-dimensional aqua-planet simulations that CO2-induced forcing as readily destabilizes the climate as does solar forcing. The climate instability is caused by a positive cloud feedback and leads to a new steady state with global-mean sea-surface temperatures above 330 K. The upper atmosphere is considerably moister in this warm state than in the reference climate, implying that the planet would be subject to substantial loss of water to space. For some elevated CO2 or solar forcings, we find both cold and warm equilibrium states, implying that the climate transition cannot be reversed by removing the additional forcing.
Max Popp et al. 2016. Transition to a Moist Greenhouse with CO2 and solar forcing. Nature Communications volume 7, Article number: 10627 (9 Feb 2016) https://www.nature.com/articles/ncomms10627
Abstract
Water-rich planets such as Earth are expected to become eventually uninhabitable, because liquid water turns unstable at the surface as temperatures increase with solar luminosity. Whether a large increase of atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases such as CO2 could also destroy the habitability of water-rich planets has remained unclear. Here we show with three-dimensional aqua-planet simulations that CO2-induced forcing as readily destabilizes the climate as does solar forcing. The climate instability is caused by a positive cloud feedback and leads to a new steady state with global-mean sea-surface temperatures above 330 K. The upper atmosphere is considerably moister in this warm state than in the reference climate, implying that the planet would be subject to substantial loss of water to space. For some elevated CO2 or solar forcings, we find both cold and warm equilibrium states, implying that the climate transition cannot be reversed by removing the additional forcing.
123margd
Everybody has a breaking point’: how the climate crisis affects our brains
Clayton Page Aldern | Wed 27 Mar 2024
Are growing rates of anxiety, depression, ADHD, PTSD, Alzheimer’s and motor neurone disease related to rising temperatures and other extreme environmental changes?
"...Psychologists and behavioural economists have illustrated the ways in which temperature spikes drive surges in everything from domestic violence to online hate speech. Cognitive neuroscientists have charted the routes by which extreme heat and surging CO2 levels impair decision-making, diminish problem-solving abilities, and short-circuit our capacity to learn. Vectors of brain disease, such as ticks and mosquitoes, are seeing their habitable ranges expand as the world warms. And as researchers like Nomura have shown, you don’t need to go to war to suffer from post-traumatic stress disorder: the violence of a hurricane or wildfire is enough. It appears that, due to epigenetic inheritance, you don’t even need to have been born yet..."
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2024/mar/27/everybody-has-a-breaking-poi...
Clayton Page Aldern | Wed 27 Mar 2024
Are growing rates of anxiety, depression, ADHD, PTSD, Alzheimer’s and motor neurone disease related to rising temperatures and other extreme environmental changes?
"...Psychologists and behavioural economists have illustrated the ways in which temperature spikes drive surges in everything from domestic violence to online hate speech. Cognitive neuroscientists have charted the routes by which extreme heat and surging CO2 levels impair decision-making, diminish problem-solving abilities, and short-circuit our capacity to learn. Vectors of brain disease, such as ticks and mosquitoes, are seeing their habitable ranges expand as the world warms. And as researchers like Nomura have shown, you don’t need to go to war to suffer from post-traumatic stress disorder: the violence of a hurricane or wildfire is enough. It appears that, due to epigenetic inheritance, you don’t even need to have been born yet..."
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2024/mar/27/everybody-has-a-breaking-poi...
124margd
Peter D Carter @PCarterClimate | 3:44 PM · Mar 31, 2024:
Director Climate Emergency Institute, IPCC expert reviewer, Co-author Unprecedented Crime, published on climate change, sustainable development, biodiversity...{VictoriaCanada}
SEVERE DROUGHT SOUTHERN AFRICA
30 Mar ABC News new drought millions facing hunger in southern Africa extreme weather scientists say more frequent and more damaging. Predicted long ago for Southern Africa global warming
Image
https://twitter.com/PCarterClimate/status/1774523170055487645/photo/1
----------------------------------------------
Extreme drought in southern Africa leaves millions hungry
FARAI MUTSAKA and GERALD IMRAY | March 31, 2024
...The United Nations Children's Fund says there are “overlapping crises” of extreme weather in eastern and southern Africa, with both regions lurching between storms and floods and heat and drought in the past year.
In southern Africa, an estimated 9 million people, half of them children, need help in Malawi. More than 6 million in Zambia, 3 million of them children, are impacted by the drought, UNICEF said. That's nearly half of Malawi's population and 30% of Zambia's.
“Distressingly, extreme weather is expected to be the norm in eastern and southern Africa in the years to come," said Eva Kadilli, UNICEF’s regional director.
While human-made climate change has spurred more erratic weather globally, there is something else parching southern Africa this year.
El Niño, the naturally occurring climatic phenomenon that warms parts of the Pacific Ocean every two to seven years, has varied effects on the world's weather. In southern Africa, it means below-average rainfall, sometimes drought, and is being blamed for the current situation...
https://abcnews.go.com/International/wireStory/cycle-extreme-weather-drought-sou...
Director Climate Emergency Institute, IPCC expert reviewer, Co-author Unprecedented Crime, published on climate change, sustainable development, biodiversity...{VictoriaCanada}
SEVERE DROUGHT SOUTHERN AFRICA
30 Mar ABC News new drought millions facing hunger in southern Africa extreme weather scientists say more frequent and more damaging. Predicted long ago for Southern Africa global warming
Image
https://twitter.com/PCarterClimate/status/1774523170055487645/photo/1
----------------------------------------------
Extreme drought in southern Africa leaves millions hungry
FARAI MUTSAKA and GERALD IMRAY | March 31, 2024
...The United Nations Children's Fund says there are “overlapping crises” of extreme weather in eastern and southern Africa, with both regions lurching between storms and floods and heat and drought in the past year.
In southern Africa, an estimated 9 million people, half of them children, need help in Malawi. More than 6 million in Zambia, 3 million of them children, are impacted by the drought, UNICEF said. That's nearly half of Malawi's population and 30% of Zambia's.
“Distressingly, extreme weather is expected to be the norm in eastern and southern Africa in the years to come," said Eva Kadilli, UNICEF’s regional director.
While human-made climate change has spurred more erratic weather globally, there is something else parching southern Africa this year.
El Niño, the naturally occurring climatic phenomenon that warms parts of the Pacific Ocean every two to seven years, has varied effects on the world's weather. In southern Africa, it means below-average rainfall, sometimes drought, and is being blamed for the current situation...
https://abcnews.go.com/International/wireStory/cycle-extreme-weather-drought-sou...
125margd
>118 margd: In places like the Sahara, both reflecting too much sun (solar panels) v. absorbing too much sun (planting trees) have implications for climate change..."is a puzzlement".
This Map Shows Where Planting Trees Would Make Climate Change Worse
E360 Digest | March 27, 2024
...Trees draw down carbon dioxide from the atmosphere, helping to keep warming in check. But their dark, green leaves also absorb heat from sunlight. Snow and sand, by virtue of their light color, reflect more sunlight back into space. As such, trees planted in snowy areas or in the desert will absorb more sunlight than their surroundings, which may negate the climate benefits of soaking up carbon dioxide...
Map world ( https://twitter.com/YaleE360/status/1774542300493816092/photo/1 )
https://e360.yale.edu/digest/tree-planting-climate-change-albedo
-------------------------------------
Natalia Hasler et al. 2024. Accounting for albedo* change to identify climate-positive tree cover restoration. Nature Communications volume 15, Article number: 2275 (26 March 2024). https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-024-46577-1 Open access.
...Discussion
...Restoring tree cover is not a panacea for climate change. It is also critical to reduce fossil fuel emissions and protect intact ecosystems. However, restoring tree cover remains a promising natural climate solution for removing carbon dioxide from the atmosphere if it is located in climate-positive locations. Our work shows the need to account for albedo change when restoring tree cover for climate change mitigation and provides the tools to do so in a robust and spatially explicit way.
* albedo, the fraction of sunlight reflected from the Earth’s surface
This Map Shows Where Planting Trees Would Make Climate Change Worse
E360 Digest | March 27, 2024
...Trees draw down carbon dioxide from the atmosphere, helping to keep warming in check. But their dark, green leaves also absorb heat from sunlight. Snow and sand, by virtue of their light color, reflect more sunlight back into space. As such, trees planted in snowy areas or in the desert will absorb more sunlight than their surroundings, which may negate the climate benefits of soaking up carbon dioxide...
Map world ( https://twitter.com/YaleE360/status/1774542300493816092/photo/1 )
https://e360.yale.edu/digest/tree-planting-climate-change-albedo
-------------------------------------
Natalia Hasler et al. 2024. Accounting for albedo* change to identify climate-positive tree cover restoration. Nature Communications volume 15, Article number: 2275 (26 March 2024). https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-024-46577-1 Open access.
...Discussion
...Restoring tree cover is not a panacea for climate change. It is also critical to reduce fossil fuel emissions and protect intact ecosystems. However, restoring tree cover remains a promising natural climate solution for removing carbon dioxide from the atmosphere if it is located in climate-positive locations. Our work shows the need to account for albedo change when restoring tree cover for climate change mitigation and provides the tools to do so in a robust and spatially explicit way.
* albedo, the fraction of sunlight reflected from the Earth’s surface
126margd
Peter D Carter @PCarterClimate | 5:00 PM · Mar 31, 2024:
Director Climate Emergency Institute, IPCC expert reviewer, Co-author Unprecedented Crime, published on climate change, sustainable development, biodiversity
INCREASING INSURANCE CATASTROPHES LOSSES
2023 was the 4th straight year over $100 billion of natural catastrophe losses. Insurance loss burden from catastrophes more than doubled the last 30 years. 30 March 2024, Fortune, Swiss Re
Infographic ( https://twitter.com/PCarterClimate/status/1774542227936784664/photo/1 )
Director Climate Emergency Institute, IPCC expert reviewer, Co-author Unprecedented Crime, published on climate change, sustainable development, biodiversity
INCREASING INSURANCE CATASTROPHES LOSSES
2023 was the 4th straight year over $100 billion of natural catastrophe losses. Insurance loss burden from catastrophes more than doubled the last 30 years. 30 March 2024, Fortune, Swiss Re
Infographic ( https://twitter.com/PCarterClimate/status/1774542227936784664/photo/1 )
127margd
Peter D Carter @PCarterClimate | 6:09 PM · Mar 31, 2024:
Director Climate Emergency Institute, IPCC expert reviewer, Co-author Unprecedented Crime, published on climate change, sustainable development, biodiversity
U.S. OIL GAS SURGING RECORD PRODUCTION
Oil and gas production by the U.S. at huge record highs and still increasing(EIA)
The future and the planet are going down fast.
https://eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=61523
Graphs oil& gas production ( https://twitter.com/PCarterClimate/status/1774559728276013479/photo/1 )
Director Climate Emergency Institute, IPCC expert reviewer, Co-author Unprecedented Crime, published on climate change, sustainable development, biodiversity
U.S. OIL GAS SURGING RECORD PRODUCTION
Oil and gas production by the U.S. at huge record highs and still increasing(EIA)
The future and the planet are going down fast.
https://eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=61523
Graphs oil& gas production ( https://twitter.com/PCarterClimate/status/1774559728276013479/photo/1 )
128margd
Ellen Robertson et al. 2024. Decoupling of bird migration from the changing phenology of spring green-up. March 2024. PNAS (Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences) 121(12):e2308433121. DOI:10.1073/pnas.2308433121 www.researchgate.net/publication/378708994_Decoupling_of_bird_migration_from_the_changing_phenology_of_spring_green-up
Significance
Spring vegetation green-up generates important food resources for many migratory animals, provided the timing of green-up matches the timing of migration. Yet green-up phenology is changing with climate change, and it is unclear for most species whether migrations are flexible to track these changes. We examined changing green-up phenology in relation to the migrations of 150 bird species over 20 y across the Western Hemisphere {eBird citizen science data}. Our findings reveal that migrations of most species synchronize more closely with long-term averages of green-up timing than with current green-up conditions. Further, changing green-up strongly influenced phenological mismatches between the timing of bird migration and the timing of green-up, highlighting changing vegetation phenology as a potential growing threat of climate change for migratory animals {especially for longer-distance migrants}.
* Phenology is the study of periodic events in biological life cycles and how these are influenced by seasonal and interannual variations in climate, as well as habitat factors. Wikipedia
Significance
Spring vegetation green-up generates important food resources for many migratory animals, provided the timing of green-up matches the timing of migration. Yet green-up phenology is changing with climate change, and it is unclear for most species whether migrations are flexible to track these changes. We examined changing green-up phenology in relation to the migrations of 150 bird species over 20 y across the Western Hemisphere {eBird citizen science data}. Our findings reveal that migrations of most species synchronize more closely with long-term averages of green-up timing than with current green-up conditions. Further, changing green-up strongly influenced phenological mismatches between the timing of bird migration and the timing of green-up, highlighting changing vegetation phenology as a potential growing threat of climate change for migratory animals {especially for longer-distance migrants}.
* Phenology is the study of periodic events in biological life cycles and how these are influenced by seasonal and interannual variations in climate, as well as habitat factors. Wikipedia
129margd
What was it like when oxygen killed almost all life on Earth?
April 1, 2024
Although life appeared early on in Earth’s history, it wasn’t until around 2.7 billion years ago that the cyanobacteria, an early photosynthetic organism, began producing oxygen copiously. A waste product of photosynthesis, oxygen gradually began accumulating in the atmosphere over hundreds of millions of years, until all at once, it triggered “snowball Earth” conditions. For some 300 million years, Earth remained frozen, but the few living organisms that persisted continued to survive. When the ice melted, everything was different.
...one event came closer than any other to bringing an end to life on Earth: a catastrophe known as either the Great Oxidation Event or the Great Oxygenation Event. Oxygen, one of the hallmark characteristics of our living Earth, was a tremendous destructive force when it first arrived in any sort of meaningful abundance some ~2 billion years after Earth first took shape. The slow alteration of our atmosphere by the gradual addition of oxygen proved to be fatal to the most common types of organism that were present on Earth at the time. For several hundred million years, the Earth entered a horrific ice age which froze the entire surface: known today as a Snowball Earth scenario. This disaster almost ended life on Earth entirely. Here’s the story of our planet’s near-death, culminating in life’s ultimate survival story.
...In the presence of virtually no competitors or predators, and given practically unlimited resources, a living population of organisms will initially grow at an exponential rate. It will:
consume the available resources,
produce whatever metabolic products arise from its biological activity,
will then reproduce in greater-than-replacement-level numbers,
and subsequent generations will continue the cycle in an ever-increasing fashion.
There’s always a limit, however, as there are always a finite number of resources in any given environment. At some point, the metabolic processes these organisms use to drive their life functions will produce a sufficient amount of “waste product” that builds to a critical level: eventually creating an environment that’s toxic to the population of the organism that produces it. If this sounds like what ... modern humans are doing by deforesting the Earth and burning fossil fuels ... you’ve put the pieces together correctly. Organisms, if left unchecked, always wind up poisoning their habitat with the waste products of their own success....
https://bigthink.com/starts-with-a-bang/oxygen-killed-life-on-earth/
April 1, 2024
Although life appeared early on in Earth’s history, it wasn’t until around 2.7 billion years ago that the cyanobacteria, an early photosynthetic organism, began producing oxygen copiously. A waste product of photosynthesis, oxygen gradually began accumulating in the atmosphere over hundreds of millions of years, until all at once, it triggered “snowball Earth” conditions. For some 300 million years, Earth remained frozen, but the few living organisms that persisted continued to survive. When the ice melted, everything was different.
...one event came closer than any other to bringing an end to life on Earth: a catastrophe known as either the Great Oxidation Event or the Great Oxygenation Event. Oxygen, one of the hallmark characteristics of our living Earth, was a tremendous destructive force when it first arrived in any sort of meaningful abundance some ~2 billion years after Earth first took shape. The slow alteration of our atmosphere by the gradual addition of oxygen proved to be fatal to the most common types of organism that were present on Earth at the time. For several hundred million years, the Earth entered a horrific ice age which froze the entire surface: known today as a Snowball Earth scenario. This disaster almost ended life on Earth entirely. Here’s the story of our planet’s near-death, culminating in life’s ultimate survival story.
...In the presence of virtually no competitors or predators, and given practically unlimited resources, a living population of organisms will initially grow at an exponential rate. It will:
consume the available resources,
produce whatever metabolic products arise from its biological activity,
will then reproduce in greater-than-replacement-level numbers,
and subsequent generations will continue the cycle in an ever-increasing fashion.
There’s always a limit, however, as there are always a finite number of resources in any given environment. At some point, the metabolic processes these organisms use to drive their life functions will produce a sufficient amount of “waste product” that builds to a critical level: eventually creating an environment that’s toxic to the population of the organism that produces it. If this sounds like what ... modern humans are doing by deforesting the Earth and burning fossil fuels ... you’ve put the pieces together correctly. Organisms, if left unchecked, always wind up poisoning their habitat with the waste products of their own success....
https://bigthink.com/starts-with-a-bang/oxygen-killed-life-on-earth/
130margd
Charles Fletcher et al. 2024. Earth at risk: An urgent call to end the age of destruction and forge a just and sustainable future. PNAS Nexus, Volume 3, Issue 4, 2 April 2024, pgae106, https://doi.org/10.1093/pnasnexus/pgae106 https://academic.oup.com/pnasnexus/article/3/4/pgae106/7638480
Abstract
Human development has ushered in an era of converging crises: climate change, ecological destruction, disease, pollution, and socioeconomic inequality. This review synthesizes the breadth of these interwoven emergencies and underscores the urgent need for comprehensive, integrated action. Propelled by imperialism, extractive capitalism, and a surging population, we are speeding past Earth's material limits, destroying critical ecosystems, and triggering irreversible changes in biophysical systems that underpin the Holocene climatic stability which fostered human civilization. The consequences of these actions are disproportionately borne by vulnerable populations, further entrenching global inequities. Marine and terrestrial biomes face critical tipping points, while escalating challenges to food and water access foreshadow a bleak outlook for global security. Against this backdrop of Earth at risk, we call for a global response centered on urgent decarbonization, fostering reciprocity with nature, and implementing regenerative practices in natural resource management. We call for the elimination of detrimental subsidies, promotion of equitable human development, and transformative financial support for lower income nations. A critical paradigm shift must occur that replaces exploitative, wealth-oriented capitalism with an economic model that prioritizes sustainability, resilience, and justice. We advocate a global cultural shift that elevates kinship with nature and communal well-being, underpinned by the recognition of Earth’s finite resources and the interconnectedness of its inhabitants. The imperative is clear: to navigate away from this precipice, we must collectively harness political will, economic resources, and societal values to steer toward a future where human progress does not come at the cost of ecological integrity and social equity.
Fig 1. Global population growth, imperialism, and an economic model based on extractive rules of exploitation and trade that ignores natural rates of resource renewal, set the stage for a convergence of several worldwide trends that threaten safe and sustainable human development: accelerating impacts from climate change, pollution, social inequality, biodiversity loss, and disease. https://academic.oup.com/view-large/figure/445953933/pgae106f1.tif
ETA: "Compared with people born in 1960, children born today will experience 7.5 times as many heatwaves, 3.6 times as many droughts, 3 times as many crop failures, 2.8 times as many river floods, and 2 times as many wildfires."
Abstract
Human development has ushered in an era of converging crises: climate change, ecological destruction, disease, pollution, and socioeconomic inequality. This review synthesizes the breadth of these interwoven emergencies and underscores the urgent need for comprehensive, integrated action. Propelled by imperialism, extractive capitalism, and a surging population, we are speeding past Earth's material limits, destroying critical ecosystems, and triggering irreversible changes in biophysical systems that underpin the Holocene climatic stability which fostered human civilization. The consequences of these actions are disproportionately borne by vulnerable populations, further entrenching global inequities. Marine and terrestrial biomes face critical tipping points, while escalating challenges to food and water access foreshadow a bleak outlook for global security. Against this backdrop of Earth at risk, we call for a global response centered on urgent decarbonization, fostering reciprocity with nature, and implementing regenerative practices in natural resource management. We call for the elimination of detrimental subsidies, promotion of equitable human development, and transformative financial support for lower income nations. A critical paradigm shift must occur that replaces exploitative, wealth-oriented capitalism with an economic model that prioritizes sustainability, resilience, and justice. We advocate a global cultural shift that elevates kinship with nature and communal well-being, underpinned by the recognition of Earth’s finite resources and the interconnectedness of its inhabitants. The imperative is clear: to navigate away from this precipice, we must collectively harness political will, economic resources, and societal values to steer toward a future where human progress does not come at the cost of ecological integrity and social equity.
Fig 1. Global population growth, imperialism, and an economic model based on extractive rules of exploitation and trade that ignores natural rates of resource renewal, set the stage for a convergence of several worldwide trends that threaten safe and sustainable human development: accelerating impacts from climate change, pollution, social inequality, biodiversity loss, and disease. https://academic.oup.com/view-large/figure/445953933/pgae106f1.tif
ETA: "Compared with people born in 1960, children born today will experience 7.5 times as many heatwaves, 3.6 times as many droughts, 3 times as many crop failures, 2.8 times as many river floods, and 2 times as many wildfires."
131margd
Prof. Stefan Rahmstorf 🌏 🦣 @rahmstorf | 11:33 AM · May 23, 2023:
Head of Earth System Analysis @ Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research & professor of Physics of the Oceans @ Potsdam University.
Striking map from a new study by Lenton et al.: after 2.7 °C global warming the purple areas will basically be too hot to live.
A billion people could be on the move to cooler lands.
Guardian article: https://theguardian.com/environment/2023/may/22/global-heating-human-climate-nic...
The study (open access): https://nature.com/articles/s41893-023-01132-6
Map + 2.7C ( https://twitter.com/rahmstorf/status/1661032613404876801/photo/1 )
----------------------------------------------
Human Climate Niches
(Map, 1.5 - 4.4C average increase temperature + precipitation)
Human Climate Niches in green 🟩 and regions of Mean Annual Temperature over 29 °C (MAT over 29 °C) in purple 🟪.
The MAT +29°C is an important threshold as beyond this point, humans are exposed to historically unprecedented levels of heat, with an increased frequency of potentially lethal maximum temperatures over 40°C and physiologically challenging wet bulb temperatures (WBT) over 28°C, posing serious threats to health and survival.
https://globaia.org/habitability {scroll down for map}
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🔺 Quantifying the human cost of global warming
Timothy M. Lenton, Chi Xu, Jesse F. Abrams, Ashish Ghadiali, Sina Loriani, Boris Sakschewski, Caroline Zimm, Kristie L. Ebi, Robert R. Dunn, Jens-Christian Svenning & Marten Scheffer.
Nature Sustainability, 2023.
https://doi.org/10.1038/s41893-023-01132-6 https://www.nature.com/articles/s41893-023-01132-6
🔺 Future of the human climate niche
Chi Xu, Timothy A. Kohler, Timothy M. Lenton, Jens-Christian Svenning, Marten Scheffer
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 2020.
https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.191011411
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Global heating will push billions outside ‘human climate niche’
Damian Carrington Environment editor | Mon 22 May 2023
World is on track for 2.7C and ‘phenomenal’ human suffering, scientists warn...
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2023/may/22/global-heating-human-climate...
Head of Earth System Analysis @ Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research & professor of Physics of the Oceans @ Potsdam University.
Striking map from a new study by Lenton et al.: after 2.7 °C global warming the purple areas will basically be too hot to live.
A billion people could be on the move to cooler lands.
Guardian article: https://theguardian.com/environment/2023/may/22/global-heating-human-climate-nic...
The study (open access): https://nature.com/articles/s41893-023-01132-6
Map + 2.7C ( https://twitter.com/rahmstorf/status/1661032613404876801/photo/1 )
----------------------------------------------
Human Climate Niches
(Map, 1.5 - 4.4C average increase temperature + precipitation)
Human Climate Niches in green 🟩 and regions of Mean Annual Temperature over 29 °C (MAT over 29 °C) in purple 🟪.
The MAT +29°C is an important threshold as beyond this point, humans are exposed to historically unprecedented levels of heat, with an increased frequency of potentially lethal maximum temperatures over 40°C and physiologically challenging wet bulb temperatures (WBT) over 28°C, posing serious threats to health and survival.
https://globaia.org/habitability {scroll down for map}
----------------------------------------------------------
🔺 Quantifying the human cost of global warming
Timothy M. Lenton, Chi Xu, Jesse F. Abrams, Ashish Ghadiali, Sina Loriani, Boris Sakschewski, Caroline Zimm, Kristie L. Ebi, Robert R. Dunn, Jens-Christian Svenning & Marten Scheffer.
Nature Sustainability, 2023.
https://doi.org/10.1038/s41893-023-01132-6 https://www.nature.com/articles/s41893-023-01132-6
🔺 Future of the human climate niche
Chi Xu, Timothy A. Kohler, Timothy M. Lenton, Jens-Christian Svenning, Marten Scheffer
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 2020.
https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.191011411
----------------------------------------------------------
Global heating will push billions outside ‘human climate niche’
Damian Carrington Environment editor | Mon 22 May 2023
World is on track for 2.7C and ‘phenomenal’ human suffering, scientists warn...
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2023/may/22/global-heating-human-climate...
132margd
Scientists pump saltwater onto ice...
https://www.theenergymix.com/scientists-test-insane-plan-to-slow-ice-melt-in-can...
https://www.theenergymix.com/scientists-test-insane-plan-to-slow-ice-melt-in-can...
133margd
Climate change is rewiring fish brains — and probably ours, too
Clayton Aldern |
Acidifying oceans are leading to sensory loss in fish. Scientists fear people might be next.
In 2011, an international team of researchers led by Hong Young Yan at the Academia Sinica, in Taiwan, (reared) dozens of clown fish in tanks of varying carbon dioxide concentrations, the researchers (placed) waterproof speakers in the water, playing recordings from predator-rich reefs, and assessing whether the fish avoided the source of the sounds. In all but the present-day control conditions, the fish failed to swim away. It was like they couldn’t hear the danger.
Hong and his colleagues (concluded) that perhaps the carbon dioxide...was directly interfering with the fishes’ nervous systems...
The following year...Philip Munday at James Cook University in Queensland, Australia, appeared to confirm this suspicion...
https://grist.org/science/climate-change-is-rewiring-fish-brains-probably-ours-t...
-------------------------------------------
Göran E Nilsson et al 2012. Near-future CO2 levels alter fish behaviour by interfering with neurotransmitter function. Nature Reports Climate Change 2(3), January 2012. DOI:10.1038/nclimate1352. https://www.researchgate.net/publication/229833416_Near-future_CO2_levels_alter_...
Clayton Aldern |
Acidifying oceans are leading to sensory loss in fish. Scientists fear people might be next.
In 2011, an international team of researchers led by Hong Young Yan at the Academia Sinica, in Taiwan, (reared) dozens of clown fish in tanks of varying carbon dioxide concentrations, the researchers (placed) waterproof speakers in the water, playing recordings from predator-rich reefs, and assessing whether the fish avoided the source of the sounds. In all but the present-day control conditions, the fish failed to swim away. It was like they couldn’t hear the danger.
Hong and his colleagues (concluded) that perhaps the carbon dioxide...was directly interfering with the fishes’ nervous systems...
The following year...Philip Munday at James Cook University in Queensland, Australia, appeared to confirm this suspicion...
https://grist.org/science/climate-change-is-rewiring-fish-brains-probably-ours-t...
-------------------------------------------
Göran E Nilsson et al 2012. Near-future CO2 levels alter fish behaviour by interfering with neurotransmitter function. Nature Reports Climate Change 2(3), January 2012. DOI:10.1038/nclimate1352. https://www.researchgate.net/publication/229833416_Near-future_CO2_levels_alter_...
134margd
Cause and Effect | Understanding the real threats of a civilisation collapse
Tannu Jain | 4/20/2024
At the UN climate summit in Poland in 2018, biologist David Attenborough made a foreboding speech. He said: “If we don’t take action, the collapse of our civilisation and the extinction of much of the natural world is on the horizon.”
...Human societies are locally adapted to a specific climate with a mean annual temperature of ∼13°C, according to a 2020 paper "Future of the human climate niche". As the current warming of the planet continues, this adaptive capacity also reduces.
...The events of the last few years are proof that the Earth is on the fast track to becoming uninhabitable, and as alarmist as it sounds: the collapse may be near. But the silver lining is that the collapse will likely not be as dramatic as the extinction of dinosaurs was, nor will it be an abrupt event.
...scientists, led by Daniel Steel, at the School of Population and Public Health and the W Maurice Young Centre for Applied Ethics, University of British Columbia, wrote in their paper published in PNAS in 2022*... identified three possible civilisation collapse scenarios:
The localised collapse of specific, vulnerable locations
The collapse of several urban and national regions, with the remaining ones experiencing negative climate-related impacts such as food and water scarcity
Global collapse in which cities around the world are abandoned, nations vanish, and world population falls rapidly.
...Maslow’s hierarchy of needs**, which defines a five-tier model of human needs, depicted as hierarchical levels within a pyramid. Among these, the basic needs of food, water, warmth and rest must be satisfied before individuals can attend to needs higher up in the pyramid...When viewed from the climate lens, these basic needs are also the things first at risk of disruption.
...(Steel et al. 2022) also identified collapse mechanisms, and grouped them into three:
Direct impact mechanisms...
Socio-climate feedback mechanisms...
Exogenous shock vulnerability mechanisms...
...So, will climate change drive humans extinct or destroy civilisation?
“If I had to rate odds, I would say the chances of climate change driving us to the point of human extinction are very low if not zero,” Adam Schlosser, the Deputy Director of the MIT Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change, said...“There are going to be some really, really bad regional and local consequences...
https://www.msn.com/en-in/news/India/cause-and-effect-understanding-the-real-thr...
-----------------------------------------
* Daniel Steel et al. 2022. Climate change and the threat to civilization (Opinion). PNAS Vol. 119 | No. 42, October 6, 2022. https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2210525119 https://www.pnas.org/doi/10.1073/pnas.2210525119
** Maslow's hierarchy of needs is an idea in psychology proposed by American psychologist Abraham Maslow in his 1943 paper "A Theory of Human Motivation" in the journal Psychological Review. Maslow subsequently extended the idea to include his observations of humans' innate curiosity. (Wikipedia)
Tannu Jain | 4/20/2024
At the UN climate summit in Poland in 2018, biologist David Attenborough made a foreboding speech. He said: “If we don’t take action, the collapse of our civilisation and the extinction of much of the natural world is on the horizon.”
...Human societies are locally adapted to a specific climate with a mean annual temperature of ∼13°C, according to a 2020 paper "Future of the human climate niche". As the current warming of the planet continues, this adaptive capacity also reduces.
...The events of the last few years are proof that the Earth is on the fast track to becoming uninhabitable, and as alarmist as it sounds: the collapse may be near. But the silver lining is that the collapse will likely not be as dramatic as the extinction of dinosaurs was, nor will it be an abrupt event.
...scientists, led by Daniel Steel, at the School of Population and Public Health and the W Maurice Young Centre for Applied Ethics, University of British Columbia, wrote in their paper published in PNAS in 2022*... identified three possible civilisation collapse scenarios:
The localised collapse of specific, vulnerable locations
The collapse of several urban and national regions, with the remaining ones experiencing negative climate-related impacts such as food and water scarcity
Global collapse in which cities around the world are abandoned, nations vanish, and world population falls rapidly.
...Maslow’s hierarchy of needs**, which defines a five-tier model of human needs, depicted as hierarchical levels within a pyramid. Among these, the basic needs of food, water, warmth and rest must be satisfied before individuals can attend to needs higher up in the pyramid...When viewed from the climate lens, these basic needs are also the things first at risk of disruption.
...(Steel et al. 2022) also identified collapse mechanisms, and grouped them into three:
Direct impact mechanisms...
Socio-climate feedback mechanisms...
Exogenous shock vulnerability mechanisms...
...So, will climate change drive humans extinct or destroy civilisation?
“If I had to rate odds, I would say the chances of climate change driving us to the point of human extinction are very low if not zero,” Adam Schlosser, the Deputy Director of the MIT Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change, said...“There are going to be some really, really bad regional and local consequences...
https://www.msn.com/en-in/news/India/cause-and-effect-understanding-the-real-thr...
-----------------------------------------
* Daniel Steel et al. 2022. Climate change and the threat to civilization (Opinion). PNAS Vol. 119 | No. 42, October 6, 2022. https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2210525119 https://www.pnas.org/doi/10.1073/pnas.2210525119
** Maslow's hierarchy of needs is an idea in psychology proposed by American psychologist Abraham Maslow in his 1943 paper "A Theory of Human Motivation" in the journal Psychological Review. Maslow subsequently extended the idea to include his observations of humans' innate curiosity. (Wikipedia)
135margd
In summer, we live within sight and 50 mi downwind/downstream of NY's troubled, aging Fitzpatrick Nuclear Plant (1975) and its twin Nine Mile Pt--both identified by US GAO as "with high flood hazard". During 2017 Lake Ontario flood, regulators changed rules to allow Fitzpatrick plant to stay open as long as floodwater was restricted to (one foot depth?) in parking lot...
My experience is that US GAO asks pointed questions, but is scupulously fair. OTOH, a retired engineer-scientist who worked on nukes for a power co. had little confidence in NRC (U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission) process closing down aging facilities.
Can Aging U.S. Nuclear Power Plants Withstand More Extreme Weather?
James Dinneen | April 23, 2024
According to the report released earlier this month by the U.S. Government Accountability Office (GAO), the investigative arm of Congress, every nuclear plant in the country is located in an area where climate change is set to worsen flooding, heat, storms, wildfires, extreme cold, or some combination. However, it found that the NRC — which is responsible for U.S. nuclear safety — has not conducted the analyses necessary to know whether nuclear power plants are prepared for those changing conditions.
The report did not demonstrate that any plants are necessarily vulnerable to these hazards, which would require a plant-by-plant analysis. But it found the NRC has not adequately addressed whether more extreme weather could force plants to shut down or lower power output more frequently, or pose a safety risk.
The findings could influence debates about the future of the country’s aging fleet of nuclear reactors, which the Biden administration is aiming to keep online for as long as possible to help reach its goal of net-zero emissions by 2050. Nearly every U.S. nuclear reactor has already had its operating life extended to 60 years, but reaching U.S. climate goals would mean keeping many plants online even longer. Eleven plants are currently in different stages of the relicensing process...
https://e360.yale.edu/digest/u.s.-nuclear-power-climate-change
------------------------------------------------
Nuclear Power Plants: NRC Should Take Actions to Fully Consider the Potential Effects of Climate Change
GAO-24-106326 Published: Apr 02, 2024. Publicly Released: Apr 02, 2024.
https://www.gao.gov/products/gao-24-106326
My experience is that US GAO asks pointed questions, but is scupulously fair. OTOH, a retired engineer-scientist who worked on nukes for a power co. had little confidence in NRC (U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission) process closing down aging facilities.
Can Aging U.S. Nuclear Power Plants Withstand More Extreme Weather?
James Dinneen | April 23, 2024
According to the report released earlier this month by the U.S. Government Accountability Office (GAO), the investigative arm of Congress, every nuclear plant in the country is located in an area where climate change is set to worsen flooding, heat, storms, wildfires, extreme cold, or some combination. However, it found that the NRC — which is responsible for U.S. nuclear safety — has not conducted the analyses necessary to know whether nuclear power plants are prepared for those changing conditions.
The report did not demonstrate that any plants are necessarily vulnerable to these hazards, which would require a plant-by-plant analysis. But it found the NRC has not adequately addressed whether more extreme weather could force plants to shut down or lower power output more frequently, or pose a safety risk.
The findings could influence debates about the future of the country’s aging fleet of nuclear reactors, which the Biden administration is aiming to keep online for as long as possible to help reach its goal of net-zero emissions by 2050. Nearly every U.S. nuclear reactor has already had its operating life extended to 60 years, but reaching U.S. climate goals would mean keeping many plants online even longer. Eleven plants are currently in different stages of the relicensing process...
https://e360.yale.edu/digest/u.s.-nuclear-power-climate-change
------------------------------------------------
Nuclear Power Plants: NRC Should Take Actions to Fully Consider the Potential Effects of Climate Change
GAO-24-106326 Published: Apr 02, 2024. Publicly Released: Apr 02, 2024.
https://www.gao.gov/products/gao-24-106326
136margd
Going forward, there will be a night when folks without AC will not wake up... Thailand heat is invariably humid, at least in Bangkok(?)--wet bulb temps, when perspiration no longer cools one down will happen one of these days ...
Peter Dynes @PGDynes | 2:48 PM · Apr 27, 2024:
MD http://MEEgR.org - building climate resilient Adaptation/Mitigation through SRT (surface reflection technology)
Human survivability at its absolute limit in #Asia currently: #Thailand, #Myanmar, #Cambodia, #Vietnam, and the #Philippines. All hit temperatures above 40°C, with some places experiencing an incredible life-threatening heat index of up to 52°C.
Map (https://twitter.com/PGDynes/status/1784293521102406027/photo/1)
Peter Dynes @PGDynes | 2:48 PM · Apr 27, 2024:
MD http://MEEgR.org - building climate resilient Adaptation/Mitigation through SRT (surface reflection technology)
Human survivability at its absolute limit in #Asia currently: #Thailand, #Myanmar, #Cambodia, #Vietnam, and the #Philippines. All hit temperatures above 40°C, with some places experiencing an incredible life-threatening heat index of up to 52°C.
Map (https://twitter.com/PGDynes/status/1784293521102406027/photo/1)
1372wonderY
>136 margd: The Ministry for the Future is science fiction, but it starts by describing a persistent heatwave in India that kills a million people. Close up description.
138margd
Kenya flooding leaves dozens dead after dam collapse
DW | 29 April 2024
The disaster has also damaged infrastructure, including the destruction of roads, bridges and cancellation of school lessons across the country. Thousands have also been displaced due to rains in the country.
Nakuru County Governor Susan Kihika said ...At least 42 people have died...The access for the rescue groups is complicated by washed-out roads and demolished houses blocking the way.
Flooding has also blocked a major road in the region, police spokesman Stephen Kirui told the Associated Press news agency.
Kenyans mourn the death of flood victims
...Since March, 76 people have died in Kenya due to heavy rains and floods, leaving more than 131,000 displaced...school {closed} for at least a week
...The rains have also impacted other East African countries, with 155 deaths in Tanzania and more than 200,000 impacted in neighboring Burundi.
The Kenyan Department of Meteorology has warned of further rains.
This last season of rains in Kenya was at the end of 2023, and caused record flooding in the country. According to scientists, climate change is triggering the devastating extreme weather conditions in Kenya.
https://www.dw.com/en/kenya-flooding-leaves-dozens-dead-after-dam-collapse/a-689...
----------------------------------------------
The 77 Percent
DW | January 6, 2021
The 77 Percent’s Edith Kimani takes us to Lakes Bogoria and Baringo of Kenya’s Rift Valley to find out how people are coming to terms with the rising water levels...
https://www.dw.com/en/how-is-climate-change-affecting-young-africans-today/a-561...
DW | 29 April 2024
The disaster has also damaged infrastructure, including the destruction of roads, bridges and cancellation of school lessons across the country. Thousands have also been displaced due to rains in the country.
Nakuru County Governor Susan Kihika said ...At least 42 people have died...The access for the rescue groups is complicated by washed-out roads and demolished houses blocking the way.
Flooding has also blocked a major road in the region, police spokesman Stephen Kirui told the Associated Press news agency.
Kenyans mourn the death of flood victims
...Since March, 76 people have died in Kenya due to heavy rains and floods, leaving more than 131,000 displaced...school {closed} for at least a week
...The rains have also impacted other East African countries, with 155 deaths in Tanzania and more than 200,000 impacted in neighboring Burundi.
The Kenyan Department of Meteorology has warned of further rains.
This last season of rains in Kenya was at the end of 2023, and caused record flooding in the country. According to scientists, climate change is triggering the devastating extreme weather conditions in Kenya.
https://www.dw.com/en/kenya-flooding-leaves-dozens-dead-after-dam-collapse/a-689...
----------------------------------------------
The 77 Percent
DW | January 6, 2021
The 77 Percent’s Edith Kimani takes us to Lakes Bogoria and Baringo of Kenya’s Rift Valley to find out how people are coming to terms with the rising water levels...
https://www.dw.com/en/how-is-climate-change-affecting-young-africans-today/a-561...
139margd
>136 margd: contd.
The Philippines closed public schools on Monday and Tuesday because of dangerously high temperatures, moving classes online. The extreme heat coincided with a nationwide strike of jeepneys, the country's main mode of public transport.
The heat index in Manila is forecast to hit 45 degrees Celsius, or 113 degrees Fahrenheit, this week.
- The New York Times @nytimes | 7:00 AM · Apr 29, 2024 (X)
https://www.nytimes.com/2024/04/29/world/asia/philippines-heat-schools-jeepney.h...
---------------------------------------------
Why you need to worry about the ‘wet-bulb temperature’
Jocelyn Timperley | 31 Jul 2022
Scientists think we need to pay attention to a measure of heat and humidity – and it’s edging closer to the limits of human survivability
...Wet-bulb temperature (WBT) combines dry air temperature (as you’d see on a thermometer) with humidity – in essence, it is a measure of heat-stress conditions on humans.
The term comes from how it is measured. If you slide a wet cloth over the bulb of a thermometer, the evaporating water from the cloth will cool the thermometer down. This lower temperature is the WBT, which cannot go above the dry temperature. If humidity in the surrounding air is high, however – meaning the air is already more saturated with water – less evaporation will occur, so the WBT will be closer to the dry temperature.
Humidity and temperature are not the only things that affect a person’s body temperature: solar radiation and wind speed are other factors. But WBT is especially important as a measure of indoor environments, where deaths often occur in heatwaves, says W Larry Kenney, a physiology professor at Penn State University. {margd: first, older folks as in France and Chicago?}
Concern often centres on the “threshold” or “critical” WBT for humans, the point at which a healthy person could survive for only six hours. This is usually considered to be 35C, approximately equivalent to an air temperature of 40C with a relative humidity of 75%...the real threshold our bodies can tolerate could be far lower...closer to 31.5C
... the region around the Arabian Gulf...some coastal subtropical locations...Pakistan, India, Saudi Arabia, Mexico and Australia
...the maximum WBT in the tropics will rise by 1C for each 1C of average warming. This means limiting global heating to 1.5C above the pre-industrial era would prevent the majority of the tropical area – where 40% of the global population lives – from reaching the survival limit of 35C
...could ultimately mean that some places simply become too hot to live in, opening up the need for migration pathways to enable millions of people to get away from their home areas...
https://www.theguardian.com/science/2022/jul/31/why-you-need-to-worry-about-the-...
---------------------------------------------
>137 2wonderY: Ministry for the Future by Kim Stanley Robinson
Thanks--I've added it to my TBR list. It has a happy ending, I hope??
The Philippines closed public schools on Monday and Tuesday because of dangerously high temperatures, moving classes online. The extreme heat coincided with a nationwide strike of jeepneys, the country's main mode of public transport.
The heat index in Manila is forecast to hit 45 degrees Celsius, or 113 degrees Fahrenheit, this week.
- The New York Times @nytimes | 7:00 AM · Apr 29, 2024 (X)
https://www.nytimes.com/2024/04/29/world/asia/philippines-heat-schools-jeepney.h...
---------------------------------------------
Why you need to worry about the ‘wet-bulb temperature’
Jocelyn Timperley | 31 Jul 2022
Scientists think we need to pay attention to a measure of heat and humidity – and it’s edging closer to the limits of human survivability
...Wet-bulb temperature (WBT) combines dry air temperature (as you’d see on a thermometer) with humidity – in essence, it is a measure of heat-stress conditions on humans.
The term comes from how it is measured. If you slide a wet cloth over the bulb of a thermometer, the evaporating water from the cloth will cool the thermometer down. This lower temperature is the WBT, which cannot go above the dry temperature. If humidity in the surrounding air is high, however – meaning the air is already more saturated with water – less evaporation will occur, so the WBT will be closer to the dry temperature.
Humidity and temperature are not the only things that affect a person’s body temperature: solar radiation and wind speed are other factors. But WBT is especially important as a measure of indoor environments, where deaths often occur in heatwaves, says W Larry Kenney, a physiology professor at Penn State University. {margd: first, older folks as in France and Chicago?}
Concern often centres on the “threshold” or “critical” WBT for humans, the point at which a healthy person could survive for only six hours. This is usually considered to be 35C, approximately equivalent to an air temperature of 40C with a relative humidity of 75%...the real threshold our bodies can tolerate could be far lower...closer to 31.5C
... the region around the Arabian Gulf...some coastal subtropical locations...Pakistan, India, Saudi Arabia, Mexico and Australia
...the maximum WBT in the tropics will rise by 1C for each 1C of average warming. This means limiting global heating to 1.5C above the pre-industrial era would prevent the majority of the tropical area – where 40% of the global population lives – from reaching the survival limit of 35C
...could ultimately mean that some places simply become too hot to live in, opening up the need for migration pathways to enable millions of people to get away from their home areas...
https://www.theguardian.com/science/2022/jul/31/why-you-need-to-worry-about-the-...
---------------------------------------------
>137 2wonderY: Ministry for the Future by Kim Stanley Robinson
Thanks--I've added it to my TBR list. It has a happy ending, I hope??
1402wonderY
>139 margd: I confess, I didn’t get to the end. India takes a prime place in world policies though, as the rest of the countries continued to dither.
141margd
La Nina means US summer will be largely hot...
NOAA expands availability of new heat forecast tool ahead of summer (Press Release)
Collaboration with CDC provides health guidance for those most vulnerable to heat
NOAA | April 22, 2024
...HeatRisk complements the heat index and wet-bulb globe temperature, two established NWS heat forecast products for heat stress.
https://www.noaa.gov/news-release/noaa-expands-availability-of-new-heat-forecast...
----------------------------------------------
Experimental: This page is experimental to provide a period of time for customers to provide feedback to NWS.
National Weather Service
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
NWS HeatRisk
Identifying Potential Heat Risks in the Seven Day Forecast
Click map for potential heat risks and NWS forecast for a location
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/heatrisk/
NOAA expands availability of new heat forecast tool ahead of summer (Press Release)
Collaboration with CDC provides health guidance for those most vulnerable to heat
NOAA | April 22, 2024
...HeatRisk complements the heat index and wet-bulb globe temperature, two established NWS heat forecast products for heat stress.
https://www.noaa.gov/news-release/noaa-expands-availability-of-new-heat-forecast...
----------------------------------------------
Experimental: This page is experimental to provide a period of time for customers to provide feedback to NWS.
National Weather Service
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
NWS HeatRisk
Identifying Potential Heat Risks in the Seven Day Forecast
Click map for potential heat risks and NWS forecast for a location
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/heatrisk/
142margd
Fossil fuel and petrochemical campaigners {196} at Ottawa summit outnumber scientists, EU and Indigenous delegates
...Most plastic is made from fossil fuels via a chemical process known as cracking, and 196 lobbyists from both industries are at the UN talks in Ottawa, Canada, where countries are attempting to come to an agreement to curb plastic production as part of a treaty to cut global plastic waste, according to analysis by the Center for International Environmental Law (Ciel)...
...According to Carbon Tracker, BP expects plastics to represent 95% of net growth in oil demand from 2020 to 2040, and the International Energy Agency estimates plastic demand will make up 45% of growth for oil and gas mining to 2040...
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2024/apr/25/fears-grow-over-rising-numbe...
...Most plastic is made from fossil fuels via a chemical process known as cracking, and 196 lobbyists from both industries are at the UN talks in Ottawa, Canada, where countries are attempting to come to an agreement to curb plastic production as part of a treaty to cut global plastic waste, according to analysis by the Center for International Environmental Law (Ciel)...
...According to Carbon Tracker, BP expects plastics to represent 95% of net growth in oil demand from 2020 to 2040, and the International Energy Agency estimates plastic demand will make up 45% of growth for oil and gas mining to 2040...
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2024/apr/25/fears-grow-over-rising-numbe...
143margd
Daniel M Kammen @dan_kammen | 2:26 PM · May 3, 2024 {X}:
Prof., UC Berkeley & Co-Director, Roundtable on Climate & Env. Justice; former Science Envoy US State Dept.; IPCC; pilot.
Climate change / heat wave dynamics are scary:
The Asian/SE Asian heat wave is now being called the
"most extreme climate event in history".
https://cbsnews.com/news/heat-wave-asia-2024-deaths-india-severe-weather-climate...
Map S, SE Asia {https://twitter.com/dan_kammen/status/1786462327925354764/photo/1}
Prof., UC Berkeley & Co-Director, Roundtable on Climate & Env. Justice; former Science Envoy US State Dept.; IPCC; pilot.
Climate change / heat wave dynamics are scary:
The Asian/SE Asian heat wave is now being called the
"most extreme climate event in history".
https://cbsnews.com/news/heat-wave-asia-2024-deaths-india-severe-weather-climate...
Map S, SE Asia {https://twitter.com/dan_kammen/status/1786462327925354764/photo/1}
1442wonderY
>142 margd: Damn! Plastics need to be phased out. There are some appropriate products; but most substitute for other materials that work just fine.
145margd
Methane emissions from gas flaring being hidden from satellite monitors
Tom Brown and Christina Last | 2 May 2024
Use of enclosed combustors leaves regulators heavily reliant on oil and gas companies’ own flaring data
...The World Bank, alongside the EU and other regulators, have been using satellites for years to find and document gas flares, asking energy companies to find ways of capturing the gas instead of burning or venting it.
The bank set up the Zero Routine Flaring 2030 initiative at the Paris climate conference to eradicate unnecessary flaring, and its latest report stated that flaring decreased by 3% globally from 2021 to 2022.
But since the initiative, “enclosed combustors” have begun appearing in the same countries that promised to end flaring. Experts say enclosed combustors are functionally the same as flares, except the flame is hidden.
Tim Doty, a former regulator at the Texas Commission on Environmental Quality, said: “Enclosed combustors are basically a flare with an internal flare tip that you don’t see. Enclosed flaring is still flaring. It’s just different infrastructure that they’re allowing.
“Enclosed flaring is, in truth, probably less efficient than a typical flare. It’s better than venting, but going from a flare to an enclosed flare or a vapour combustor is not an improvement in reducing emissions.”
...researchers...saw that the satellites were not picking up the enclosed flares.
...Without the satellite data, countries were forced to rely mostly on self-disclosed reporting from oil and gas companies, researchers said. Environmentalists fear the research community’s ability to understand pollution and greenhouse gas emissions from the energy sector could be jeopardised...
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2024/may/02/methane-emissions-gas-flarin...
Tom Brown and Christina Last | 2 May 2024
Use of enclosed combustors leaves regulators heavily reliant on oil and gas companies’ own flaring data
...The World Bank, alongside the EU and other regulators, have been using satellites for years to find and document gas flares, asking energy companies to find ways of capturing the gas instead of burning or venting it.
The bank set up the Zero Routine Flaring 2030 initiative at the Paris climate conference to eradicate unnecessary flaring, and its latest report stated that flaring decreased by 3% globally from 2021 to 2022.
But since the initiative, “enclosed combustors” have begun appearing in the same countries that promised to end flaring. Experts say enclosed combustors are functionally the same as flares, except the flame is hidden.
Tim Doty, a former regulator at the Texas Commission on Environmental Quality, said: “Enclosed combustors are basically a flare with an internal flare tip that you don’t see. Enclosed flaring is still flaring. It’s just different infrastructure that they’re allowing.
“Enclosed flaring is, in truth, probably less efficient than a typical flare. It’s better than venting, but going from a flare to an enclosed flare or a vapour combustor is not an improvement in reducing emissions.”
...researchers...saw that the satellites were not picking up the enclosed flares.
...Without the satellite data, countries were forced to rely mostly on self-disclosed reporting from oil and gas companies, researchers said. Environmentalists fear the research community’s ability to understand pollution and greenhouse gas emissions from the energy sector could be jeopardised...
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2024/may/02/methane-emissions-gas-flarin...
146margd
Prof. Eliot Jacobson @EliotJacobson | 11:00 AM · May 7, 2024 {X}:
Retired professor of mathematics and computer science
No doubt about it, the f&%kery in the North Atlantic is not over yet.
Graph, N Atlantic surface temp anomaly 1982-2024
https://twitter.com/EliotJacobson/status/1787860147802685695/photo/1
-------------------------------------------
The New York Times @nytimes | 11:00 AM · May 7, 2024 {X}:
Some of the most alarming consequences of climate change are hiding beneath the surface of the ocean. Two reporters explain just how close we might be to a tipping point. Listen to “The Daily.”
This year had the hottest January on record in the world’s oceans, and temperatures have continued to rise since then.
How changing ocean temperatures could upend life on earth. Is the world's climate close to a tipping point? (29:41) 7 May 2024
https://www.nytimes.com/2024/05/07/podcasts/the-daily/ocean-temperature-climate....
Retired professor of mathematics and computer science
No doubt about it, the f&%kery in the North Atlantic is not over yet.
Graph, N Atlantic surface temp anomaly 1982-2024
https://twitter.com/EliotJacobson/status/1787860147802685695/photo/1
-------------------------------------------
The New York Times @nytimes | 11:00 AM · May 7, 2024 {X}:
Some of the most alarming consequences of climate change are hiding beneath the surface of the ocean. Two reporters explain just how close we might be to a tipping point. Listen to “The Daily.”
This year had the hottest January on record in the world’s oceans, and temperatures have continued to rise since then.
How changing ocean temperatures could upend life on earth. Is the world's climate close to a tipping point? (29:41) 7 May 2024
https://www.nytimes.com/2024/05/07/podcasts/the-daily/ocean-temperature-climate....
147margd
‘I am starting to panic about my child’s future’: climate scientists wary of starting families
Damian Carrington | 10 May 2024
A fifth of female climate scientists who responded to Guardian survey said they had opted to have no or fewer children...
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/article/2024/may/10/climate-scientists-s...
________________________________
Have the courage to have children despite climate change and wars, Pope Francis says
Claire Giangravé | May 10, 2024
The pontiff asks nations to help women juggle motherhood and work, create job security for young people and help couples buy homes.
...“I know that for many of you, the future may see unsettling, and that between falling birthrates, wars, pandemics and climate change it’s not easy to keep hope alive,” Francis said, “but don’t give up, have faith, because tomorrow is not something inevitable: We build it together, and this together we find first and foremost with the Lord.”...
https://www.sltrib.com/religion/2024/05/10/have-courage-have-children-despite/
Damian Carrington | 10 May 2024
A fifth of female climate scientists who responded to Guardian survey said they had opted to have no or fewer children...
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/article/2024/may/10/climate-scientists-s...
________________________________
Have the courage to have children despite climate change and wars, Pope Francis says
Claire Giangravé | May 10, 2024
The pontiff asks nations to help women juggle motherhood and work, create job security for young people and help couples buy homes.
...“I know that for many of you, the future may see unsettling, and that between falling birthrates, wars, pandemics and climate change it’s not easy to keep hope alive,” Francis said, “but don’t give up, have faith, because tomorrow is not something inevitable: We build it together, and this together we find first and foremost with the Lord.”...
https://www.sltrib.com/religion/2024/05/10/have-courage-have-children-despite/
148margd
Chemical analysis of natural CO₂ rise over the last 50,000 years shows that today's rate is 10 times faster
Michelle Klampe, Oregon State University | May 13, 2024
Today's rate of atmospheric carbon dioxide increase is 10 times faster than at any other point in the past 50,000 years, researchers have found through a detailed chemical analysis of ancient Antarctic ice...
...Previous research showed that during the last ice age, which ended about 10,000 years ago, there were several periods where carbon dioxide levels appeared to jump much higher than the average.
...Using samples from the West Antarctic Ice Sheet Divide ice core, {Kathleen Wendt, an assistant professor in Oregon State University's College of Earth, Ocean, and Atmospheric Sciences and the study's lead author} and colleagues ... identified a pattern that showed that these jumps in carbon dioxide occurred alongside North Atlantic cold intervals known as Heinrich Events that are associated with abrupt climate shifts around the world.
"These Heinrich Events are truly remarkable," said Christo Buizert, an associate professor in the College of Earth, Ocean, and Atmospheric Sciences and co-author of the study. "We think they are caused by a dramatic collapse of the North American ice sheet. This sets into motion a chain reaction that involves changes to the tropical monsoons, the Southern hemisphere westerly winds and these large burps of CO2 coming out of the oceans."
During the largest of the natural rises, carbon dioxide increased by about 14 parts per million in 55 years. The jumps occurred about once every 7,000 years or so. At today's rates, that magnitude of increase takes only 5 to 6 years.
Evidence suggests that during past periods of natural carbon dioxide rise, the westerly winds that play an important role in the circulation of the deep ocean were also strengthening, leading to a rapid release of CO2 from the Southern Ocean.
Other research has suggested that these westerlies will strengthen over the next century due to climate change. The new findings suggest that if that occurs, it will reduce the Southern Ocean's capacity to absorb human-generated carbon dioxide ..."We rely on the Southern Ocean to take up part of the carbon dioxide we emit, but rapidly increasing southerly winds weaken its ability to do so," Wendt said.
https://phys.org/news/2024-05-chemical-analysis-natural-years-today.html
------------------------------------------
Kathleen A. Wendt et al. 2024. Southern Ocean drives multidecadal atmospheric CO2 rise during Heinrich Stadials
https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8905-5013. PNAS, May 13, 2024. 121 (21) e2319652121. https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2319652121 https://www.pnas.org/doi/10.1073/pnas.2319652121
Abstract
The last glacial period was punctuated by cold intervals in the North Atlantic region that culminated in extensive iceberg discharge events. These cold intervals, known as Heinrich Stadials, are associated with abrupt climate shifts worldwide. Here, we present CO2 measurements from the West Antarctic Ice Sheet Divide ice core across Heinrich Stadials 2 to 5 at decadal-scale resolution. Our results reveal multi-decadal-scale jumps in atmospheric CO2 concentrations within each Heinrich Stadial. The largest magnitude of change (14.0 ... ppm within 55 ... y) occurred during Heinrich Stadial 4. Abrupt rises in atmospheric CO2 are concurrent with jumps in atmospheric CH4 {methane}and abrupt changes in the water isotopologs* in multiple Antarctic ice cores, the latter of which suggest rapid warming of both Antarctica and Southern Ocean vapor source regions. The synchroneity of these rapid shifts points to wind-driven upwelling of relatively warm, carbon-rich waters in the Southern Ocean, likely linked to a poleward intensification of the Southern Hemisphere westerly winds. Using an isotope-enabled atmospheric circulation model, we show that observed changes in Antarctic water isotopologs can be explained by abrupt and widespread Southern Ocean warming. Our work presents evidence for a multi-decadal- to century-scale response of the Southern Ocean to changes in atmospheric circulation, demonstrating the potential for dynamic changes in Southern Ocean biogeochemistry and circulation on human timescales. Furthermore, it suggests that anthropogenic CO2 uptake in the Southern Ocean may weaken with poleward strengthening westerlies today and into the future.
...The last glacial period was punctuated by millennial-scale cold intervals in the northern hemisphere (NH), referred to as stadials. A Heinrich Stadial (HS) is defined as a stadial that culminated in a rapid and extensive ice rafting event in the North Atlantic, known as a Heinrich Event (HE)... The unique impacts of these century-scale ice-rafting events and the HS they occurred in have been identified in paleoclimate records worldwide... A key mechanism that facilitated the global propagation of these impacts was a weakening of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) during NH stadials, which amplified the interhemispheric temperature contrast through an oceanic teleconnection known as the thermal bipolar seesaw ...
...DISCUSSION
...Our decadal-resolution atmospheric CO2 record from the WD** ice core reveals multi-decadal- to centennial-scale jumps in atmospheric CO2 levels that are synchronous with jumps in atmospheric CH4 {methan} concentrations and Antarctic water isotopologs during HSs {Heinrich Stadials}... The synchroneity of these jumps can be explained by a southward displacement of the ITCZ {Intertropical Convergence Zone} in response to North Atlantic ice rafting events, which ultimately led to a poleward enhancement of the SH {Southern Hemisphere} westerlies. Enhanced wind stress drove increased vertical transport and ventilation of deep waters in the Southern Ocean, resulting in rapid CO2 outgassing that drove a pulse of atmospheric CO2 rise of up to 14 ppm within half a century. Other potential mechanisms, including a multidecadal scale release of CO2 from a terrestrial carbon pool, cannot be excluded and may have occurred in parallel to Southern Ocean changes. The rate and magnitude of atmospheric CO2 rises resolved in this study provide critical constraints on carbon-cycle variability during abrupt climate shifts and urge caution that the modern-day Southern Ocean carbon sink has the potential to weaken in response to continued poleward enhancement of the SH westerlies ...
* In chemistry, isotopologues are molecules that differ only in their isotopic composition.1 They have the same chemical formula and bonding arrangement of atoms, but at least one atom has a different number of neutrons than the parent.
An example is water, whose hydrogen-related isotopologues are: "light water" (HOH or H2O), "semi-heavy water" with the deuterium isotope in equal proportion to protium (HDO or 1H2HO), "heavy water" with two deuterium isotopes of hydrogen per molecule (D2O or 2H2O), and "super-heavy water" or tritiated water (T2O or 3H2O, as well as HTO {1H3HO} and DTO {2H3HO}, where some or all of the hydrogen atoms are replaced with the radioactive tritium isotope)... (Wikipedia)
** "The West Antarctic Ice Sheet Divide (WAIS Di-vide, WD) ice core is a newly drilled, high-accumulation deep ice core that provides Antarctic climate records of the past ˘68ka at unprecedented temporal resolution." https://cp.copernicus.org/articles/11/153/2015/cp-11-153-2015.pdf
Michelle Klampe, Oregon State University | May 13, 2024
Today's rate of atmospheric carbon dioxide increase is 10 times faster than at any other point in the past 50,000 years, researchers have found through a detailed chemical analysis of ancient Antarctic ice...
...Previous research showed that during the last ice age, which ended about 10,000 years ago, there were several periods where carbon dioxide levels appeared to jump much higher than the average.
...Using samples from the West Antarctic Ice Sheet Divide ice core, {Kathleen Wendt, an assistant professor in Oregon State University's College of Earth, Ocean, and Atmospheric Sciences and the study's lead author} and colleagues ... identified a pattern that showed that these jumps in carbon dioxide occurred alongside North Atlantic cold intervals known as Heinrich Events that are associated with abrupt climate shifts around the world.
"These Heinrich Events are truly remarkable," said Christo Buizert, an associate professor in the College of Earth, Ocean, and Atmospheric Sciences and co-author of the study. "We think they are caused by a dramatic collapse of the North American ice sheet. This sets into motion a chain reaction that involves changes to the tropical monsoons, the Southern hemisphere westerly winds and these large burps of CO2 coming out of the oceans."
During the largest of the natural rises, carbon dioxide increased by about 14 parts per million in 55 years. The jumps occurred about once every 7,000 years or so. At today's rates, that magnitude of increase takes only 5 to 6 years.
Evidence suggests that during past periods of natural carbon dioxide rise, the westerly winds that play an important role in the circulation of the deep ocean were also strengthening, leading to a rapid release of CO2 from the Southern Ocean.
Other research has suggested that these westerlies will strengthen over the next century due to climate change. The new findings suggest that if that occurs, it will reduce the Southern Ocean's capacity to absorb human-generated carbon dioxide ..."We rely on the Southern Ocean to take up part of the carbon dioxide we emit, but rapidly increasing southerly winds weaken its ability to do so," Wendt said.
https://phys.org/news/2024-05-chemical-analysis-natural-years-today.html
------------------------------------------
Kathleen A. Wendt et al. 2024. Southern Ocean drives multidecadal atmospheric CO2 rise during Heinrich Stadials
https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8905-5013. PNAS, May 13, 2024. 121 (21) e2319652121. https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2319652121 https://www.pnas.org/doi/10.1073/pnas.2319652121
Abstract
The last glacial period was punctuated by cold intervals in the North Atlantic region that culminated in extensive iceberg discharge events. These cold intervals, known as Heinrich Stadials, are associated with abrupt climate shifts worldwide. Here, we present CO2 measurements from the West Antarctic Ice Sheet Divide ice core across Heinrich Stadials 2 to 5 at decadal-scale resolution. Our results reveal multi-decadal-scale jumps in atmospheric CO2 concentrations within each Heinrich Stadial. The largest magnitude of change (14.0 ... ppm within 55 ... y) occurred during Heinrich Stadial 4. Abrupt rises in atmospheric CO2 are concurrent with jumps in atmospheric CH4 {methane}and abrupt changes in the water isotopologs* in multiple Antarctic ice cores, the latter of which suggest rapid warming of both Antarctica and Southern Ocean vapor source regions. The synchroneity of these rapid shifts points to wind-driven upwelling of relatively warm, carbon-rich waters in the Southern Ocean, likely linked to a poleward intensification of the Southern Hemisphere westerly winds. Using an isotope-enabled atmospheric circulation model, we show that observed changes in Antarctic water isotopologs can be explained by abrupt and widespread Southern Ocean warming. Our work presents evidence for a multi-decadal- to century-scale response of the Southern Ocean to changes in atmospheric circulation, demonstrating the potential for dynamic changes in Southern Ocean biogeochemistry and circulation on human timescales. Furthermore, it suggests that anthropogenic CO2 uptake in the Southern Ocean may weaken with poleward strengthening westerlies today and into the future.
...The last glacial period was punctuated by millennial-scale cold intervals in the northern hemisphere (NH), referred to as stadials. A Heinrich Stadial (HS) is defined as a stadial that culminated in a rapid and extensive ice rafting event in the North Atlantic, known as a Heinrich Event (HE)... The unique impacts of these century-scale ice-rafting events and the HS they occurred in have been identified in paleoclimate records worldwide... A key mechanism that facilitated the global propagation of these impacts was a weakening of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) during NH stadials, which amplified the interhemispheric temperature contrast through an oceanic teleconnection known as the thermal bipolar seesaw ...
...DISCUSSION
...Our decadal-resolution atmospheric CO2 record from the WD** ice core reveals multi-decadal- to centennial-scale jumps in atmospheric CO2 levels that are synchronous with jumps in atmospheric CH4 {methan} concentrations and Antarctic water isotopologs during HSs {Heinrich Stadials}... The synchroneity of these jumps can be explained by a southward displacement of the ITCZ {Intertropical Convergence Zone} in response to North Atlantic ice rafting events, which ultimately led to a poleward enhancement of the SH {Southern Hemisphere} westerlies. Enhanced wind stress drove increased vertical transport and ventilation of deep waters in the Southern Ocean, resulting in rapid CO2 outgassing that drove a pulse of atmospheric CO2 rise of up to 14 ppm within half a century. Other potential mechanisms, including a multidecadal scale release of CO2 from a terrestrial carbon pool, cannot be excluded and may have occurred in parallel to Southern Ocean changes. The rate and magnitude of atmospheric CO2 rises resolved in this study provide critical constraints on carbon-cycle variability during abrupt climate shifts and urge caution that the modern-day Southern Ocean carbon sink has the potential to weaken in response to continued poleward enhancement of the SH westerlies ...
* In chemistry, isotopologues are molecules that differ only in their isotopic composition.1 They have the same chemical formula and bonding arrangement of atoms, but at least one atom has a different number of neutrons than the parent.
An example is water, whose hydrogen-related isotopologues are: "light water" (HOH or H2O), "semi-heavy water" with the deuterium isotope in equal proportion to protium (HDO or 1H2HO), "heavy water" with two deuterium isotopes of hydrogen per molecule (D2O or 2H2O), and "super-heavy water" or tritiated water (T2O or 3H2O, as well as HTO {1H3HO} and DTO {2H3HO}, where some or all of the hydrogen atoms are replaced with the radioactive tritium isotope)... (Wikipedia)
** "The West Antarctic Ice Sheet Divide (WAIS Di-vide, WD) ice core is a newly drilled, high-accumulation deep ice core that provides Antarctic climate records of the past ˘68ka at unprecedented temporal resolution." https://cp.copernicus.org/articles/11/153/2015/cp-11-153-2015.pdf
149margd
Inside the giant 'sky rivers' swelling with climate change
Sophie Hardach | 5/14/2024
...atmospheric rivers are getting bigger, more frequent and more extreme, due to climate change; and the damage they cause is getting worse...
Often described as rivers in the sky, atmospheric rivers are a huge, invisible ribbons of water vapour. Each can be several hundreds of kilometres wide, and transport 27 times as much water as the Mississippi River. They are born in warm oceans, as seawater evaporates, rises and moves to cooler latitudes. When the vapour reaches a coast, such as California, it flows up a mountain, cools, and comes down as rain or snow – enough to wash down hillsides causing landslides, and bring torrential rain, floods and deadly avalanches...
On the US West Coast, atmospheric rivers bring the heaviest rains, warmest storms, major floods, extreme coastal winds, and landslides. They can come in groups – known as "families" – with several of them striking a place within days...
...Atmospheric rivers ... tend to travel under cloud cover, which hides them from conventional weather observation tools like satellites... Knowing when and where such a storm will arrive, and how powerful it is, helps people on land prepare for what's coming, and for example, empty the right reservoirs in time... they can be life-sustaining... Up to two-thirds of the West Coast's droughts are brought to an end by the arrival of an atmospheric river – they are known as drought busters...
https://www.bbc.com/future/article/20240509-how-to-forecast-the-next-atmospheric...
Sophie Hardach | 5/14/2024
...atmospheric rivers are getting bigger, more frequent and more extreme, due to climate change; and the damage they cause is getting worse...
Often described as rivers in the sky, atmospheric rivers are a huge, invisible ribbons of water vapour. Each can be several hundreds of kilometres wide, and transport 27 times as much water as the Mississippi River. They are born in warm oceans, as seawater evaporates, rises and moves to cooler latitudes. When the vapour reaches a coast, such as California, it flows up a mountain, cools, and comes down as rain or snow – enough to wash down hillsides causing landslides, and bring torrential rain, floods and deadly avalanches...
On the US West Coast, atmospheric rivers bring the heaviest rains, warmest storms, major floods, extreme coastal winds, and landslides. They can come in groups – known as "families" – with several of them striking a place within days...
...Atmospheric rivers ... tend to travel under cloud cover, which hides them from conventional weather observation tools like satellites... Knowing when and where such a storm will arrive, and how powerful it is, helps people on land prepare for what's coming, and for example, empty the right reservoirs in time... they can be life-sustaining... Up to two-thirds of the West Coast's droughts are brought to an end by the arrival of an atmospheric river – they are known as drought busters...
https://www.bbc.com/future/article/20240509-how-to-forecast-the-next-atmospheric...
150margd
Esp bad these days, but I remember sand firebreaks around a Manitoba military base in Manitoba in 1960s--that proved useful on a couple of occasion (grassfires). Hot, dry, and windy is typical in summer, but Mays were green, as I remember?
Canada's oil sands hub threatened by wildfire, sparking large evacuations
David Ljunggren and Nia Williams | May 15, 2024
A large wildfire is slowly approaching the major Canadian oil sands city of Fort McMurray and around 6,000 people in four suburbs have been told to evacuate...
The fire, fueled by tinder-dry conditions and high winds, has been threatening the city in the western province of Alberta since last week. It is now about 7.5 km (4.7 miles) away from the Fort McMurray landfill, authorities said in an update.
...In addition to the harm that may befall people and property, the fire puts a large portion of Canada's oil production at risk. Fort McMurray is the hub for the country's oil-sands output and a huge wildfire in 2016 forced the evacuation of 90,000 residents and shut in more than 1 million barrels per day (bpd) of output...
https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/wildfire-forces-evacuation-four-suburbs-w...
Canada's oil sands hub threatened by wildfire, sparking large evacuations
David Ljunggren and Nia Williams | May 15, 2024
A large wildfire is slowly approaching the major Canadian oil sands city of Fort McMurray and around 6,000 people in four suburbs have been told to evacuate...
The fire, fueled by tinder-dry conditions and high winds, has been threatening the city in the western province of Alberta since last week. It is now about 7.5 km (4.7 miles) away from the Fort McMurray landfill, authorities said in an update.
...In addition to the harm that may befall people and property, the fire puts a large portion of Canada's oil production at risk. Fort McMurray is the hub for the country's oil-sands output and a huge wildfire in 2016 forced the evacuation of 90,000 residents and shut in more than 1 million barrels per day (bpd) of output...
https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/wildfire-forces-evacuation-four-suburbs-w...
151margd
Summer 2023 was the hottest in 2,000 years, study says
Gloria Dickie | May 14, 2024
The intense northern hemisphere summer heat that drove wildfires across the Mediterranean, buckled roads in Texas and strained power grids in China last year made it not just the warmest summer on record - but the warmest in some 2,000 years, new research suggests...
https://www.reuters.com/business/environment/summer-2023-was-hottest-2000-years-...
------------------------------------
Jan Esper et al. 2024. 2023 summer warmth unparalleled over the past 2,000 years. Nature (14 May 2024). https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-024-07512-y#:~:text=Here%2C%20we%20combin...
Gloria Dickie | May 14, 2024
The intense northern hemisphere summer heat that drove wildfires across the Mediterranean, buckled roads in Texas and strained power grids in China last year made it not just the warmest summer on record - but the warmest in some 2,000 years, new research suggests...
https://www.reuters.com/business/environment/summer-2023-was-hottest-2000-years-...
------------------------------------
Jan Esper et al. 2024. 2023 summer warmth unparalleled over the past 2,000 years. Nature (14 May 2024). https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-024-07512-y#:~:text=Here%2C%20we%20combin...
Questa conversazione è stata continuata da Climate change issues, prevention, adaptation 12.
