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Sto caricando le informazioni... Future Scenarios: How Communities Can Adapt to Peak Oil and Climate Changedi David Holmgren
Permaculture (50) Sto caricando le informazioni...
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In Future Scenarios, permaculture co-originator and leading sustainability innovator David Holmgren outlines four scenarios that bring to life the likely cultural, political, agricultural, and economic implications of peak oil and climate change, and the generations-long era of "energy descent" that faces us. "Scenario planning," Holmgren explains, "allows us to use stories about the future as a reference point for imagining how particular strategies and structures might thrive, fail, or be transformed." Future Scenarios depicts four very different futures. Each is a permutation of mild or destructive climate change, combined with either slow or severe energy declines. Probable futures, explains Holmgren, range from the relatively benign Green Tech scenario to the near catastrophic Lifeboats scenario. As Adam Grubb, founder of the influential Energy Bulletin website, says, "These aren't two-dimensional nightmarish scenarios designed to scare people into environmental action. They are compellingly fleshed-out visions of quite plausible alternative futures, which delve into energy, politics, agriculture, social, and even spiritual trends. What they do help make clear are the best strategies for preparing for and adapting to these possible futures." Future Scenarios provides brilliant and balanced consideration of the world's options and will prove to be one of the most important books of the year. Non sono state trovate descrizioni di biblioteche |
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Google Books — Sto caricando le informazioni... GeneriSistema Decimale Melvil (DDC)333.8232Social sciences Economics Economics of land & energy Underground Resources Fossil Fuels Oil And Natural Gas OilClassificazione LCVotoMedia:
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Rarely are these two issues considered in combination, but each affects the way we can respond to the other. The possibilities for our future range from "techno-explosion" to civilisation collapse; but another possibility is energy descent, where available energy and organisational complexity progressively decline. Many sustainability strategists believe that energy descent may be inevitable.
There is a desperate need to recast energy descent as a positive process that can free people from the dysfunctions of growth economics. Future Scenarios uses a planning model incorporating the spectrums of climate change and peak oil to generate four "energy descent" scenarios – "brown tech", "green tech", "lifeboats" and "Earth steward" – representing various future pathways. It uses the principles of permaculture – a design system founded on reduced resource availability – to show how we can deal with energy descent in the most graceful way possible.
The Author: David Holmgren is a futurist and the co-originator of the permaculture concept with Bill Mollison. He lives with his partner and their son at Melliodora, a one-hectare permaculture demonstration site at Hepburn Springs, Central Victoria, Australia. David's website can be found at www.holmgren.com.au.