Probabilities concerning end of humanity, ET, AI, multiple universes. Endlessly fascinating and mostly pointless, like masturbation. 😉 ( )

The End Is Near for far more reasons that you think

If you think the scientific arguments over climate change are harrowing, let William Poundstone take you on a tour of Man’s inevitable extinction. There are theories from every angle, and just as many experts ready to refute or at least denounce them, often in very colorful terms.

The Doomsday Calculation is a book of math, specifically probability. Gladstone tries to educate readers in the history, lore and application of probability. There was a great turning point at the time of Copernicus, and ever since, Man has been trying to predict things mathematically. Ultimately, the book is about how much readers might or should believe predictions for the extinction of Man, based purely on the math.

The era of probability really took off a couple of hundred years after Copernicus, when an unpublished paper by Thomas Bayes was discovered. It ushered in all kinds of practical applications and has been instrumental in running the world ever since, and moreso every day. Yet arguments over its application to mankind itself are, to put it mildly, fraught.

When scientists look at Man they see a fairly typical Earth life form. They come and go, like everything else, and there’s little reason to think Man will be the exception that proves the rule. After all, there have been a dozen variants of Homo, and sapiens is the only one still around, he points out.

As bright as the future might be, Man has severe limitations. He must carry his environment around with him, his food needs are outlandish by comparison to any other species’ requirements, and his lifetime is nothing to brag about on a galactic scale. J. Richard Gott, the current pope of probability, says the likelihood of Man colonizing other planets in the galaxy is one in a billion.

Meanwhile, there are numerous threats at home, any of which could wipe out the species. Mathematically, the more successful Man is (in sheer numbers), the more the threats to survival are real. From insufficient food and water, to disease and overcrowding, there is ample reason to doubt this will go on much longer. Then there is the manmade threat collection, from nuclear war to unbreathable air on down. And there are galactic factors, from meteorites to crashing galaxies, a swelling sun and a breakup of the solar system.

Running the numbers, physicist Willard Wells says the only hope for man’s survival is an apocalyptic event that nearly wipes out the species. Mathematically, that would greatly reduce the chances of total extinction. This is the kind of probability theory Gladstone explores.
The book breaks out all those themes and more. Gladstone examines odds of similar or identical worlds and civilizations, the reasons extraterrestrials don’t visit or write, the quantum makeup of the universe, and the theory that our universe is merely an expanding bubble among possibly an infinite number of such universe bubbles, separated by high force vacuums that prevent anyone seeing to the next bubble.

Back on Earth. Gladstone shows that probability theories work and have more or less successfully predicted any number of things that needed no predicting. Artificial intelligence comes in for a particular thrashing. All by itself, AI is capable of running Man off the planet as redundant. Once it starts writing software on its own, the game is over. And there are a lot people in the business who worry about that. Unfortunately, as we have seen in weaponry, gene editing of babies and the over-carboning of everything, the capitalist system encourages the race to the end, regardless of need, benefit or common good. And there is really nothing that can stop it. Short of extinction, that is.

The Doomsday Calculation is a romp through history, cosmology, physics and academics calling each other out. It is fast paced, lightly written and for such a morose topic, totally enjoyable. Strikingly, Gladstone found no theories we could call optimistic. We may not be closer to the beginning than the end, but all the math says the end in near, relatively speaking.

David Wineberg ( )