Casti sets up a philosophical framework around causation, rules, and probability, that distinguishes explanation of some phenomenon from prediction of that phenomenon. He then applies these ideas to a series of particular cases: weather and climate, embryology, the stock market, the outbreak of war, and mathematical proofs and truths.

The basic lay of the land is not unreasonable. But here is a suggestion. Perhaps the pinnacle of the book is at the end, with the suggestion of Lakatos that maybe even mathematical truth is empirical. Well, how about philosophical truth, too?

This whole book annoys me throughout because everything is sketched out rather sloppily. There are some nice stories and attempts at humor to lighten things up, which is not a bad thing. But when we get to the meat of the various matters, we never really get our teeth into it. Of course it is no easy thing to write a popular book on such deep issues. But that is the task that Casti set for himself. As a quick sketch it at least traverses interesting territory. And he does provide a "To Dig Deeper" collection of resources that is quite valuable. But it's frustrating because very little of the book really succeeds in hitting its target.

One way to make the book a bit more fun would have been to move the philosophical section to the back. Why not let the philosophy emerge from the concrete issues? That would be an empirical philosophy. Maybe by looking for the philosophical bones buried in the empirical flesh, maybe that would have tightened up the focus on the flesh. That's actually a fascinating aspect of real bodies too: the muscles shape the bones by their patterns of stresses etc.

Anyway it is an OK book but a bit like Twinings tea or Harney & Sons. Sorry if you like those. But for a fan of e.g. Taylor's of Harrogate or Fortnum and Mason... it's not that the former aren't tea at all. But a person might decide on the basis of tasting them that tea is a rather tasteless insipid brew and then miss out totally on the real stuff. You can indeed get a general sense of what these topics are about by reading Casti's book. But don't be mistaken... it's worth the struggle to find and work through more precise discussions. I wish I could recommend popular books that achieve genuine precision. Probably they exist... I am still hunting! Ah, but I should not forget perhaps one stellar example of what Casti's book is not: Hofstadter's Godel Escher Bach! Has anyone hit a pinnacle like that, since? ( )

Since the beginning of time, humankind has been searching for ways to predict future events. Although the oracle at Delphi has given way to modern scientific theories, the prediction game is still a hard one to beat.
Taking us on a journey through the worlds of probability, chance, and chaos, John Casti asks a variety of intriguing questions. Does any method exist for foreseeing stock market trends? Can warfare be predicted and avoided? And is mathematics really as infallible as it's cracked up to be? Challenging the reliability of previously established ""truths"" of the scientific community, Casti shows with extraordinary wit and insight the forces that drive our world. From physics and supercomputers to pure mathematical theory, Casti brings the reader to the frontier of science and research in a clear style, fascinating for the scientist and layman alike.