For some time I have been concerned that China’s ascent is more than a case of an emerging economy awakening from an extended period of slumber.

Unlike the Japanese, Latin Americans and the Europeans, China appeared to be a society with unprecedented resources, an innate inclination for risk-taking and a unique bargaining position. This combination, I worry, will have an enormous impact on the worldwide economy, political balance of power and ultimately the way I make my living.

Oded Shenkar, a business professor at Ohio State University, says that within 20 years China will have the world’s largest economy. He argues convincingly—I admit to being favorably disposed prior to reading the book—that China seeks to restore its imperial glory by infusing modern technology and market economics into its non-democratic system.

China’s rapid growth, he argues, differs from its predecessors.

• The Chinese, while aspiring to economic growth, have no desire to emulate the American way of life. They have their own values and will not sacrifice them for the sake of economic growth.
• They appear to be willing to maintain their dominance in low-tech industries, using its cash-flow to internally finance their entry into high-tech.
• The presence of an unprecedented human resource pool. Not only is it the world’s largest, but it includes an unusually large number of scientists, engineers and seasoned executives.
• It possesses an advanced and rapidly improving technological infrastructure.
• Finally the Chinese have traditionally taken an assertive view in implementing their foreign policy.

This combination, the professor argues, will have a profound effect on the economy and politics here in the United States.

• Organizations will increasingly divide themselves along a fault line that separates those who benefit from increased investment in and trade with China and those which cannot. These two groups will take opposing views on protectionism and free trade.
• Job security will become a more important issue. This issue could reverse the decades-old trend away from unionization.
• This country will have to increasingly cope with the implications of a continued transition from a manufacturing-based economy to one that increasingly relies on services. This could have severe implications for a nation used to assuming the role of the world’s innovator.

While I want to believe that American ingenuity, innovation and adaptability will come to the forefront in meeting this challenge; in the back of my mind I am concerned this time is different.

Shenkar’s book did little to allay my nagging doubts. ( )