fascintating. learned more geography, just have to remember that his predictions are just that. Surely would have liked better maps (tough to differentiate between various shades of gray). ( )

Since I discovered Peter Zeihan's from reading his blisteringly good The End of the World Is Just the Beginning (2022) I've been working my way backwards through his bibliography. ALL of them are excellent and I recommend them all, but if I had to crown a crème de la crème winner it would be this one, The Accidental Superpower: The Next Generation of American Preeminence and the Coming Global Disaster. So much has changed in the world in the 7 years since this book came out, but you'll be surprised by how many of the predictions argued here have come true or trending that way. And since 2020, since COVID began, these trends have in many cases accelerated.

But it's not The Accidental Superpower having many of its predictions come true that makes it one of the best. That's a part of it, for sure. It's also the way the arguments are laid out, by giving what's to come a historical context in a way that feels both succinct and full of details. And also I just love history, geography and politics, and this book has all that and more. ( )

Book very clearly presents the author's concept, so it's a 4-5 star on that basis. The real question is: does this concept reflect reality and have any predictive value? Undecided, but it's certainly interesting.

Essentially Zeihan's whole thing is "geography determines destiny" (via demographics and other factors). On the basis of geography alone, the US is clearly great, and a lot of other places are in trouble, and this gap will expand. Coupled with the aftereffects of WW2: 1) the baby boom and bust and then Gen Y in the US, and the baby boom and bust and lack of recovery everywhere else 2) the Bretton Woods/Cold War arrangement and its decreasing utility to the US, he makes the case that the US will retreat from global engagement and remain strong, while most of the rest of the world is essentially doomed to varying degrees. As well, there's a massive energy boom in the US due to shale which is mentioned in this book and expanded on in his sequel.

On a purely demographic and age-based demographics basis, he seems correct. However, he neglects two powerful forces entirely: technology and technological progress, and the character/value/culture/qualities of individual humans, and groups of humans, distinct from just their ages.

It's great that ports and river systems matter, but while they provide a big cost advantage, given enough other advantages you can overcome this through technology. If a certain geographic territory had the best laws but bad geography, it would still be a winner.

I'd argue you could the right entrepreneurs in the middle of Afghanistan with a starting supply of food and weapons, come back, and there would be something great. If you took a random Afghan village (not self-selected entrepreneurs) in the other direction, you'd get shitholeistan-by-the-sea. His arguments for the US's long-term dominance come down to population numbers and ages, rather than taking into account cultural and quality changes.

Overall, it's an interesting theory. He's great at presenting it (it's fun watching a few of his talks and seeing how various things evolve over time.) . Certainly worth the time to read, just not 100% convincing without additional evidence. ( )

I disagree with almost everything the author says. His predictions are outlandish and based on mind-boggling simplifications. It has a Thomas Malthus ring to it. Very simple extrapolations of current trends with no contingency for any technology shifts (except 3D printing apparently!) and assumes everyone's fate is predetermined and people will just follow their roles regardless of their own wants because we all know all countries act rationally all the time. Very interesting observations but far from the whole story.

I plan to be around in 2040 as well so I will be here to laugh when Canada fails to join the US and its close ally Iran - some of those predictions seem to be there just to provoke headlines. ( )

Americans can rejoice, along with folks in Australia, NZ, Mexico, Argentina, Angola, Turkey, Indonesia, Uzbekistan, Vietnam, Thailand, Myanmar and a few other countries. For the rest, well, the 21st century is going to be either a struggle to stay stable (at best), a downward slide, or a complete collapse. So say history, geography and demographics, according to Zeihan, who sees American energy independence as a signal of coming U.S. withdrawal from its post-Breton Woods position as trade protector for the world. As the only surviving naval power, with little need for massive international involvement and little military threat to the homeland because of geography, the U.S. will have a few years while Baby Boomer demographics get sorted out and then have a fine future, while much of the world will return to the pre-WWII resource wars.

A really interesting book, geared towards the generalist and backed up with lots of facts and maps. It certainly made me aware of aspects of international relationships and geography to which I'd paid little attention. I saw this author being interviewed by Fareed Zakaria, so if you appreciate Zakaria's opinion, this will be a must-read. ( )