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Unintended Consequences: How War in Iraq Strengthened America's Enemies (2008)

di Peter W. Galbraith

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Called by New York Times columnist David Brooks the "smartest and most devastating" critic of President George W. Bush's Iraq policies, Peter W. Galbraith was the earliest expert to describe Iraq's breakup into religious and ethnic entities, a reality that is now commonly accepted.The Iraq war was intended to make the United States more secure, bring democracy to the Middle East, intimidate Iran and Syria, help win the war on terror, consolidate American world leadership, and entrench the Republican Party for decades. Instead,-Bush handed Iran its greatest strategic triumph in four centuries.-U.S. troops now fight to support an Iraqi government led by religious parties intent on creating an Iranian-style Islamic republic.-As part of the surge, the United States created a Sunni militia led by the same Baathists the United States invaded Iraq to overthrow.-Obsessed with Iraq's nonexistent weapons of mass destruction, the Bush administration gave Iran and North Korea a free pass to advance their nuclear programs.-Turkey, a key NANATO ally long considered a model pro-Western Muslim democracy, became one of the most anti-American countries in the world.-U.S. prestige around the world reached an all-time low.Iraq: Galbraith challenges the assertion that the surge will lead to victory. By creating a Sunni army, the surge has, in fact, contributed to Iraq's breakup and set the stage for an intensified civil war between Sunnis and Shiites. If the United States wishes to escape the Iraq quagmire, it must face up to the reality that the country has broken up and cannot be put back together.Iran: Having helped Iran's allies take control in Baghdad, the Bush administration no longer has a viable military option to stop Iran's nuclear program. Galbraith discusses how a president more pragmatic than Bush might get Iran to freeze its nuclear program as part of a package deal to upgrade relations between two countries equally threatened by Sunni extremism.Turkey, Syria, and Israel: A war intended to make Israel more secure, undermine Syria's Assad regime, and strengthen ties with Turkey has had the opposite result.Nationalism: In the coming decades, other countries may follow Iraq's example in fragmenting along ethnic and religious lines. Galbraith draws on his considerable experience in Iraq and the former Yugoslavia to predict where this might happen and what the United States might do about it.The United States: George W. Bush substituted wishful thinking for strategy and, as a result, made America weaker. Galbraith provides some rules for a national strategy that will appeal equally to conservatives and liberals-indeed, to anyone who believes the United States needs an effective national security strategy.… (altro)
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Reading this book early in the Obama presidency was probably just about the right timing. Written at the end of the Bush Administration, reading it two years later allowed enough time to judge many of the predictions Galbraith made about the turmoil and unrest in Iraq and the surrounding countries, and to see what came true, and what did not. Galbraith clearly was not a supporter of the war in Iraq, and tells us why. We've all heard the arguments, pros and cons, about the war, but what I found interesting was his vision of what was to come, as he wrote in 2008, and comparing that to what has occurred, now in 2011. I don't think he got everything right, but Galbraith does have a wealth of foreign policy experience, and his insights did give a fairly accurate projection of what Iraq and the Region would be like around this time. The dust hasn't settled yet on the conflict in Iraq or the region, but Galbraith did have some interesting insights, and much of what he envisioned does seem to have been borne out by the subsequent events.
( )
  rsutto22 | Jul 15, 2021 |
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The Moving Finger writes; and, having writ,
Moves on: nor all your Piety nor Wit
Shall lure it back to cancel half a Line,
Nor all your Tears wash out a Word of it.
--Omar Khayyam
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For Nuala and Claiborne Pell
and
Elizabeth B. Moynihan
and in memory of
Daniel Patrick Moynihan.
And for Tone
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(Introduction) George W. Bush launched and lost America's Iraq War.
(Chapter 1) At the beginning of 2007, President Bush announced a new strategy fo Iraq.
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Called by New York Times columnist David Brooks the "smartest and most devastating" critic of President George W. Bush's Iraq policies, Peter W. Galbraith was the earliest expert to describe Iraq's breakup into religious and ethnic entities, a reality that is now commonly accepted.The Iraq war was intended to make the United States more secure, bring democracy to the Middle East, intimidate Iran and Syria, help win the war on terror, consolidate American world leadership, and entrench the Republican Party for decades. Instead,-Bush handed Iran its greatest strategic triumph in four centuries.-U.S. troops now fight to support an Iraqi government led by religious parties intent on creating an Iranian-style Islamic republic.-As part of the surge, the United States created a Sunni militia led by the same Baathists the United States invaded Iraq to overthrow.-Obsessed with Iraq's nonexistent weapons of mass destruction, the Bush administration gave Iran and North Korea a free pass to advance their nuclear programs.-Turkey, a key NANATO ally long considered a model pro-Western Muslim democracy, became one of the most anti-American countries in the world.-U.S. prestige around the world reached an all-time low.Iraq: Galbraith challenges the assertion that the surge will lead to victory. By creating a Sunni army, the surge has, in fact, contributed to Iraq's breakup and set the stage for an intensified civil war between Sunnis and Shiites. If the United States wishes to escape the Iraq quagmire, it must face up to the reality that the country has broken up and cannot be put back together.Iran: Having helped Iran's allies take control in Baghdad, the Bush administration no longer has a viable military option to stop Iran's nuclear program. Galbraith discusses how a president more pragmatic than Bush might get Iran to freeze its nuclear program as part of a package deal to upgrade relations between two countries equally threatened by Sunni extremism.Turkey, Syria, and Israel: A war intended to make Israel more secure, undermine Syria's Assad regime, and strengthen ties with Turkey has had the opposite result.Nationalism: In the coming decades, other countries may follow Iraq's example in fragmenting along ethnic and religious lines. Galbraith draws on his considerable experience in Iraq and the former Yugoslavia to predict where this might happen and what the United States might do about it.The United States: George W. Bush substituted wishful thinking for strategy and, as a result, made America weaker. Galbraith provides some rules for a national strategy that will appeal equally to conservatives and liberals-indeed, to anyone who believes the United States needs an effective national security strategy.

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