Probability theory is the underpinning of the modern world. Current research in both the physical and social sciences cannot be understood without it. Today’s politics, tomorrow’s weather, and next week’s satellite all depend on it. By ignoring, or failing to grasp, the laws of chance we hurt ourselves in many ways. We buy insurance we don’t need, for instance and then fail to insure the risks we should. We make damaging decisions in business and in driving a car. We also gamble on “systems”: to beat the house at blackjack, play unnecessarily bad bridge, and draw to inside straights. For the famous “Law of Averages” does not mean that half of all our guesses will come out right. Darrell Huff explains clearly and forcefully just what it does mean to take a chance, and shows how to recognize and deal effectively with the probabilities which so importantly affect our judgments and actions. - Back cover.