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Cyber War Will Not Take Place

di Thomas Rid

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A fresh and refined appraisal of today's top cyber threats
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In this book author gives a very interesting premise - cyber war will not take place because there is no such thing as cyber war.

Book explains in a very precise way how cyber warfare, no matter how crazed (and yes, truly crazed, bombastic and ever on the lookout for sensations and half truths) media and politicians want it to be seen differently, is not warfare in the way we understand it, is not warfare at all but a tool. And again not a tool in Clausewitz's sense (continuation of policy by other means) but support tool, yet another venue for supporting the conventional means of warfare in the same way GPS, communication and recon satellites are supporting tools.

Going very slowly and thoroughly through historical examples (from 1980's to modern times - of course 2016 gets mention here) author describes that cyber warfare actions can never be seen as standard violent actions of opposing armed forces because it is in one way either highly specialized and precise tool for support (Stuxnet and APT for example) and in other so dispersed and decentralized that it can motivate people to join a virtual movement but also leave it as soon as they get bored (social oriented software and systems) that it cannot survive on its own. It needs to be used as part of the whole and it cannot survive on its own to achieve any goal.

In other words if cyber warfare ever achieves its goal then it will not be an action triggered by the moment (like assassination of Hapsburg monarch in the Balkans or mishap in firing of nuclear weapons) but precisely launched attack on the very much studied and observed target, for months if not years. There will be no excuse for this offense, no I/we did not know. And this is why it will never be triggered because to trigger it means painting huge bulls-eye on ones country to be ripped apart by other parties. And all for the dubiously effective attack on infrastructure (that is continuously covered by government services). This is what makes the situation highly unlikely (if not completely impossible).

And this is where reality clashes with fiction (yeah, Swordfish is not the way hacking is done, although I liked the entry test :)), fiction that is so liked by people looking for sensations and bombastic titles - to get more funding or get more blog/news media readers.

Even when used for sabotage and subversion cyber warfare tools are only as good as other parts of the operation. From insertion to exfiltration.

Excellent book that explains how computer network warfare (sounds much boring than cyber warfare right?) can be dangerous in many ways - especially in wrong attribution of the events and inability to discern criminal from state sponsored actions. It is a tool used by shadow agencies in false flag and proper assaults but either as a scalpel cut or as a support tool in a greater operation (to shutdown radar networks i.e.). We are still far away from Gibson's matrix or Cyberpunk future - which is good, because those book need to be considered a warning not something to yearn for (unless we as a society truly are sick in our collective mind).

I found it very interesting that fear rising in the West from the East seem to be caused by the knowledge coming from western lead operation. It is same as fear of the spy that causes him to see spies all around him, because he knows what can happen and what can be done (i.e. take 2016 and very sophisticated Arab spring - in general they are the same, executed using same tools and network media for pushing ones ideas). Don't get me wrong, East is more than willing to submit these types of operations (and they do it as APT operation shows) but this looks like a closed circuit, without end and with so many contradictions it is unbelievable (i.e. I would like current politicians to finally come to terms with N. Korea - is it backward, starving nation with large peasant army and almost no hi tech, or SPECTRE-like construct that is so capable to conduct cyber warfare operations and endanger highly sophisticated West?).

And this is where additional danger lies - there are so many half-truths, exaggerations for this new vector of attack that you can say almost everything and get away with it. You can present your enemy to be this great great threat in this aspect and nobody will ask for any more details because this boogey-man-warfare is THE threat, our wise official say.

Hopefully this book will put things in proper context because it needs to be done to prevent unnecessary conflicts between nations.

Highly recommended. ( )
  Zare | Jan 23, 2024 |
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