Russia: international moves, West responses, Putin's revenge & future...Ukraine 11

The Kyiv Independent @KyivIndependent | 2:10 AM · Nov 2, 2022:

⚡️General Staff: Ukraine launches 33 strikes against Russian forces.

The General Staff of Ukraine’s Armed Forces reported that Ukrainian forces launched 33 strikes against the Russian troops, hitting 26 areas of military equipment clusters.

Ukrainian soldiers downed a Russian helicopter, two Orlan-10 drones, six Shahed-136 combat drones, and two Kub-type drones in the past 24 hours.

Russian forces continued their retaliatory strikes against civilian targets, launching 47 airstrikes, and over 90 MLRS attacks against Ukraine on Nov. 1. The latest attack targeted more than 25 settlements.

Anton Gerashchenko @Gerashchenko_en | 8:16 AM · Nov 2, 2022:

"They just lie. Are they crazy? Are they ill? I can't understand what's in their heads. How can we talk to them if they fire 54 rockets on us in half a day?" - @ZelenskyyUa commented on the possibility of negotiations with Russia.

0:41 ( https://twitter.com/Gerashchenko_en/status/1587780730859429888 )
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Forbes estimates Russia's Oct. 10 missile strikes cost $400-700 million
The Kyiv Independent news desk | October 11, 2022
https://kyivindependent.com/news-feed/forbes-estimates-russias-oct-10-missile-st...

A week late, but still ahead of the curve? https://www.theamericanconservative.com/playing-at-war-in-ukraine/

As the astute author Hunter S. Thompson noted, “When the going gets weird, the weird turn pro.” Weird is indisputably the condition in Great Britain, where Liz Truss, an arguably empty and talentless prime minister, is out—and was, it seemed for a moment, very nearly replaced by her vacuous predecessor, Boris Johnson.

Weirdness, however, is not foreign to American politics. An indicator of just how weird Washington is becoming is the apparent interest in General (ret.) David Petraeus’s recent suggestion that Washington and its allies may want to intervene in the ongoing conflict between Moscow and Kiev.

According to Petraeus, the military action he advocates would not be a NATO intervention, but “a multinational force led by the US and not as a NATO force.” In other words, a U.S.-led Multi-National Force on the Iraq model composed of conventional ground, air, and naval forces.

Petraeus does not explain why U.S. military action is needed. But it’s not hard to guess. The intervention is designed to rescue Ukrainian forces from defeat and presumably compel Moscow to negotiate on Washington’s terms, whatever those terms might be.

Admittedly, the whole business seems weird, but Petraeus’s suggestion should not be dismissed. Not because Petraeus’s military expertise warrants consideration—it doesn’t. Rather it merits attention because Petraeus would never make such a recommendation unless he was urged to do so by powerful figures in Washington and on Wall Street. And as Jeffrey Sachs tells Americans, globalist and neocon elites clearly want a direct armed confrontation with Russia....

Interview with author today:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=d4yt16j-Ah8
His key assertion regarding the U.S. troops now acknowledged on the ground in Ukraine: "inspection teams" in situations like this usually try to keep a low profile. They don't usually don't show up in uniform, led by a one-star general. That looks a lot more like an advance force.

Source duly considered. Full of shit? Damn, I hope so. Otherwise, fuck this. I want to live.

>3 davidgn: Timing duly considered as well. Could be a midterm op. I suppose only time will tell.

>4 davidgn: cf.
https://www.wsws.org/en/articles/2022/11/02/ukra-n02.html
And calls from Adm. Stavridis, of all people (who I seem to recall was the guy who kept the U.S. out of war with Iran ca. '07) for direct U.S. naval intervention in the Black Sea.
https://www.wsws.org/en/articles/2022/10/31/nbsp-o31.html

ETA: My memory seems to be faulty. That was primarily Adm. Fallon, ca. '08.

The Kyiv Independent @KyivIndependent | 7:50 PM · Nov 2, 2022:

⚡️Russia says nuclear powers teetering 'on brink of armed conflict.'

Russia's Foreign Ministry said in a statement that provocations with weapons of mass destruction may lead to "catastrophic consequences."

The ministry blamed the West for the escalation and claimed that it sought to prevent a nuclear conflict. Russia has repeatedly threatened to use nuclear weapons since it launched the full-scale invasion of Ukraine on Feb. 24.

James Waterhouse @JamWaterhouse | 7:02 AM · Nov 2, 2022:

Turkey is emerging as the dominant player in this grain deal.

After convincing Moscow to participate once again, Erdogan reportedly suggested to Putin to “completely withdraw & start negotiations” with Kyiv - as “defeat is inevitable”

Anton Gerashchenko @Gerashchenko_en | 4:50 PM · Nov 2, 2022:
Ukrainian patriot. Advisor to the Minister of Internal Affairs of Ukraine. Founder of the Institute of the Future. Official enemy of Russian propaganda

Russians say that the iron curtain is coming down for a long time.

They also say mean things about Finns and Swedes. And threaten them with nuclear weapons yet again.

1:57 https://twitter.com/Gerashchenko_en/status/1587910146063212546
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Insults for the British, too:
1:31 ( https://twitter.com/francis_scarr/status/1587891900543115270 )

>7 margd: contd. (James Waterhouse is BBC's Ukraine correspondent.)

The Kyiv Independent @KyivIndependent | 7:50 PM · Nov 2, 2022

⚡️New York Times: Russian military bloggers criticize Putin for rejoining grain deal.

Yuri Podolyaka told his 2.8 million Telegram followers “this weakness will have a negative impact on everything: at the front lines, in the rear, in the international arena," NYT reported.

>9 margd: contd.

NYT also quoted Sergei Markov, a political analyst, as writing on Telegram: “Does all this look like a humiliating defeat for Moscow?” to which he answered, “Yes,” adding that Moscow paid “little attention to its image."
____________________________________

Seems like more bluster (nuke talk) and angst (Belarus at UN) than usual? Russia being armed by Iran and North Korea--surely the suppliers of last resort. Retired US generals sabre rattling. Russia rejoins grain deal--maybe they need the money? The sanctions are biting?

Anton Gerashchenko @Gerashchenko_en | 2:25 PM · Nov 2, 2022:

Belarus representative in the UN announced that international sanctions undermine human right for life.

Don't your rockets undermine anything?

1:09 ( https://twitter.com/Gerashchenko_en/status/1587873504292110337 )
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The Kyiv Independent @KyivIndependent | 3:03 PM · Nov 2, 2022:

⚡️North Korea accused of hiding ammunition supplies to Russia.

U.S. officials said North Korea was trying to hide the shipments by making it appear as if the ammunition is being sent to the Middle East or North Africa, according to newly declassified intelligence quoted by CNN.

Two months ago, U.S. intelligence alleged Russia was buying rockets and artillery shells from North Korea for use in Ukraine, CNN reported.

>5 davidgn: A closer inspection of the interview shows it has a number of sweeping overstatements and (at best) oversimplifications in favor of the Russian logistics and supply position. Col. Macgregor certainly knows better, even if his audience doesn't (and presumably, he knows they don't).

Incidentally, some great military analysis that I do trust comes from this channel run by a guy whose day job is apparently somewhere in the Australian security apparatus. Absolutely top-notch briefings from stem to stern. https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCC3ehuUksTyQ7bbjGntmx3Q
-- This on the Russian mobilization is a sterling example.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6hXnQNU8ANo

All sides lie as a matter of course in wartime, but
Macgregor is spouting enough verifiable horseshit that I begin to wonder what's up with him. Also, the first article linked in the American Conservative piece is from April but referenced as though it were recent, which doesn't speak well for his seriousness. I'm feeling a bit better about the likelihood of his scenario, though it still bears keeping a very close eye on how things actually shake out in terms of U.S. forces on the ground.

We can’t keep treating talk of negotiations to end the Ukraine war as off limits (Guardian)

Broaching the subject of peace negotiations invites accusations of helping Putin, as congressional progressives recently learned the hard way, but that’s misguided...

Documents Reveal Wagner’s Golden Ties to Sudanese Military Companies (Organised Crime and Corruption Reporting Project)

The Kyiv Independent @KyivIndependent | 4:55 AM · Nov 3, 2022:

⚡️ UK intelligence: Russia struggles to find artillery ammo, armored vehicles.

Russia has bought about 100 additional tanks and infantry fighting vehicles from Belarus, while its forces are losing about 40 armored vehicles a day in Ukraine, the U.K. Defense Ministry wrote.

"Armored units and artillery are central to Russia's way of war," the report reads. However, according to the ministry, Russian troops are disappointed about having to serve in old combat vehicles, which they describe as "aluminum cans."

Anton Gerashchenko @Gerashchenko_en | 9:15 AM · Nov 3, 2022:

According to Russian propaganda, this is what Tinder will look like this winter in EU: freezing women chasing after Russians who can afford electricity, heat and hot water.

2:19 ( https://twitter.com/Gerashchenko_en/status/1588157858847260678 )

TetleyBitterMan @ManTetley
I think this is actually an advert for the airline associated with the airliner that appears towards the end of the clip.

The Kyiv Independent @KyivIndependent | 12:07 AM · Nov 3, 2022:

⚡️ISW: Financial incentives for Russian soldiers likely to put strain on Russian economy for decades.

Russian officials have been promising salaries to volunteers and mobilized men that are more than twice the average civilian salary, the Institute for the Study of War* said.

* The Institute for the Study of War is a policy research organization focused on U.S. national security...understandingwar.org

The Kyiv Independent @KyivIndependent | 6:26 AM · Nov 3, 2022

⚡️ Tsikhanouskaya: Sending Belarusian troops to Ukraine would mean 'political suicide' for Lukashenko.

If dictator Alexander Lukashenko gives the Belarusian forces an order to attack Ukraine, they won't fight, said leader of the Belarus opposition Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya.

Samuel Ramani (Oxford) @SamRamani2 | 11:42 AM · Nov 3, 2022:

BREAKING: Ukraine says that Russian shelling has put the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Plant into "full blackout mode"

The remaining two high voltage transmission lines were reportedly damaged by Russian shelling

Russia has predictably accused Ukraine of cutting off the electricity power line, while the IAEA says it has lost access to all off-site electricity

AE86@Useless_Mario
Thankfully there working on repairing one of the lines this is taken directly from the IAEA press release
https://twitter.com/Useless_Mario/status/1588234149671976966/photo/1

Anish Patel III @quequisque
Does that mean the plant is now operating with its Diesel backup generators?

Nicolas Gachoud @VoltaNoire
Yep. 15 days max autonomy - estimated.

>10 margd: North Korea and Russia have a shared land border and linked railroads. If they're gonna ship the Russians ammo, they'll just ship the Russians ammo. Pretty sure this is a fairy tale.

Russian and Ukrainian Voices in Dissent

Webinar - Nov 20, 2022 02:00 PM in Eastern Time (US and Canada)

At considerable risk and sacrifice, since the beginning of the Ukraine War, Oleg Bodrov, Aysa Markel and Yurii Sheliazhenko have been speaking in opposition, opposing the war and urging a ceasefire and negotiations. In this webinar, speaking from St. Petersburg, Kyiv and the Czech Republic, they will share their personal circumstances, their perceptions of the war, opposition to the war, and what will be necessary to stop the killing.

Speakers

Oleg Bodrov is a physicist, ecologist and Chairman of the Public Council of the Southern Shore of the Gulf of Finland, Russia. He spoke on nuclear dangers in Boston in May 2019.

Yurii Sheliazhenko is a Ukrainian peace researcher, educator, and activist and executive secretary of the Ukrainian Pacifist Movement. He has a PhD in Law, Master of Mediation and Conflict Management, and is a laureate of the Sean MacBride Peace Prize of the International Peace Bureau.

Eset Maruket Gagieva is a psychologist and activist currently living in exile from Russia. She has long been active in the fields of human rights, democratic values, peace and non-violence communication seeking more peaceful country through cooperation and cultural exchange.

The Kyiv Independent @KyivIndependent | 10:36 AM · Nov 3, 2022:

⚡️ Ukraine returns 107 POWs from Russian captivity.

One hundred seven Ukrainian soldiers were released from Russian captivity on Nov. 3, including 74 defenders of the Azovstal steel plant, according to President's Office Head Andriy Yermak.

Many of them are seriously wounded.

"We've managed to exchange those who were seriously wounded in Mariupol... boys with shrapnel wounds in their arms and legs," Yermak said.

The Kyiv Independent @KyivIndependent | 7:03 AM · Nov 3, 2022:

⚡️ Energoatom: Russia tries to connect Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant to occupied territories.

Russian forces at the occupied Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant will soon try to connect the plant's communication lines to annexed Crimea, occupied parts of Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts, according to state nuclear operator Energoatom.
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The Kyiv Independent @KyivIndependent | 12:00 PM · Nov 3, 2022:
⚡️ IAEA finds no evidence that proves Russia's 'dirty bomb' accusations.

The IAEA experts have finished in-field inspections in Ukraine and found no "indications of undeclared nuclear activities," said the agency's chief, Rafael Grossi.

The International Atomic Energy Agency's inspections were carried out at Ukraine's request after Russia claimed Ukraine was developing a "dirty bomb."

Elsewhere, a Twitter user mused who would want to go to Mars if Musk controlled your oxygen supply??

Ukraine suffered a comms outage when 1,300 SpaceX satellite units went offline over funding issues
Alex Marquardt and Sean Lyngaas | November 4, 2022

... Earlier this month, Musk said that of the more than 25,000 terminals now in Ukraine, fewer than 11,000 were paying for the service, which can run as high as $4,500 per month.

On Monday a Pentagon spokesman declined to comment on potential contracts or agreements but said talks are ongoing....

Whether greater cooperation with SpaceX would give the US government stronger control over the Starlink signal in Ukraine has not been answered. Currently SpaceX controls where Ukraine Starlink terminals can be used and outages have previously been reported by Ukrainian units near the front, as they advanced and liberated Russian-held areas.

As a result, Musk’s control of the signal gives him significant sway over the battlefield at a time when he has come under heavy criticism for arguing that Ukraine should sue for peace and give up some of its territory.

https://www.cnn.com/2022/11/04/politics/spacex-ukraine-elon-musk-starlink-intern...

The Kyiv Independent @KyivIndependent | 6:39 PM · Nov 4, 2022:

⚡️Zelensky: 'We are ready for peace, for a fair and just peace.'

President Zelensky said in his nightly address that Ukraine's formula for peace requires Russia respect Ukraine's territorial integrity as well as fully compensate for the damage caused to Ukraine.

Zelensky also said that Russia's "alleged readiness for negotiations is false," pointing to Russia's mass mobilization drive as evidence the Kremlin is not interested in negotiating.

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Scholz and Xi agree Russia would cross a line with nuclear weapons in Ukraine
Rob Schmitz | November 4, 2022

He had just 11 hours in Beijing, but German Chancellor Olaf Scholz used this precious time to urge Chinese leader Xi Jinping to use his influence over Russia's President Vladimir Putin to prevent further escalation in Ukraine.

During Friday's meeting, China's state-run Xinhua News Agency reported that Xi Jinping called on the international community to "reject the threat of nuclear weapons and advocate against a nuclear war to prevent a crisis on the Eurasian continent."

After the meeting, Scholz said the two agreed that with the use of nuclear weapons, Russia would cross a line drawn by the international community.

Scholz was widely criticized in the German press, and by fellow politicians, in the run-up to his Beijing trip — which he took with CEOs of German companies whose business relies on China's market — for placing short-term business interests over long-term strategic concerns and European Union unity...

In the days leading up to Scholz's trip, he went against the advice of many advisers and cabinet ministers to approve a 24.9% stake in the port of Hamburg by Chinese state-run shipping giant COSCO, a move that 69% of Germans polled by Deutschland Trend called a "wrong move." The U.S. also voiced misgivings about the deal...

https://www.npr.org/2022/11/04/1134253829/xi-jinping-olaf-scholz-russia-nuclear-...

As of 1 January 2021, Kiev's population was 2,962,180, making it the seventh-most populous city in Europe. (Wikipedia)

Samuel Ramani @SamRamani2 | 3:58 AM · Nov 6, 2022:
DPhil/PhD Intl Relations @UniofOxford, Assoc Fellow @RUSI_org, Bylines @ForeignPolicy, WaPo etc...

BREAKING: Kyiv considers a civilian evacuation if a total blackout occurs

Right now, civilians in Kyiv are largely staying put but the major concern is the collapse of the sewage system due to blackouts from Russian strikes

Kyiv officials will have at least 12 hours notice if the grid is failing completely and evacuations would follow

This is a good human interest story:

How a history lesson, a pro-Russian politician and dozens of cement mixers saved the key city of Kryvyi Rih

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2022/11/05/how-history-lesson-pro-russian...

Samuel Ramani @SamRamani2 | 11:39 AM · Nov 6, 2022:
DPhil/PhD Intl Relations @UniofOxford, Assoc Fellow @RUSI_org,
Bylines @ForeignPolicy, WaPo etc...

Russian jets lost in Ukraine: 277
Soviet jets lost in Afghanistan: 118

!

Anton Gerashchenko @Gerashchenko_en | 9:18 AM · Nov 6, 2022:
Ukrainian patriot. Advisor to the Minister of Internal Affairs of Ukraine. Founder of the Institute of the Future. Official enemy of Russian propaganda

Russian children's show teaches that children deserve to die for misbehaving

This atmosphere of total violence shapes people who are ready to murder, people who think it's the norm and people who are ready to be murdered.

0:58 ( https://twitter.com/Gerashchenko_en/status/1589260916419604480 )

Viktor Kovalenko @MrKovalenko | 7:33 PM · Nov 5, 2022

A survived Russian mobilized soldier Alexei Agafonov told RU media Verstka how his entire battalion of more than 500 poorly equipped men died under Ukrainian artillery fire near Svatove, Luhansk region on Nov 1-2. They had only 3 shovels to dig trenches...

Сотни погибших: под Макеевкой уничтожен батальон мобилизованных из Воронежской области - Вёрстка
Родственники мобилизованных из Воронежской области заявляют о брошенных на передовую солдатах, огромных потерях и бежавшем командовании в боях под Сватово
https://verstka.media/pod-makeevkoy-pogibli-sotni-mobilizovannyh/

{Google translation}
Hundreds of dead: a battalion of mobilized from the Voronezh region was destroyed near Makiivka - Layout
Relatives of those mobilized from the Voronezh region say about the soldiers abandoned on the front line, huge losses and the command fled in the battles near Svatovo...

Viktor Kovalenko @MrKovalenko | 8:03 PM · Nov 5, 2022:

1/ Russian forces in the #Kherson region are trying to fool #Ukrainians that they are retreating. In fact, they're preparing strongholds/traps for urban fighting with artillery support from the eastern riverbank, said spox of the Ukr South Command Natalya Gumeniuk of Ukr TV.
Photo ( https://twitter.com/MrKovalenko/status/1589045717150334981/photo/1 )

2/ "We see objective data - they're staying. Their units dug in quite strongly. They left some armor. They've prepared the firing positions. Their positions on the left bank will be used for fire support," said spox N. Gumeniuk.

The Kyiv Independent @KyivIndependent | 7:54 PM · Nov 6, 2022:

⚡️WSJ: Senior White House official has discussions with top Putin aides.

U.S. National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan had discussions with top aides to Vladimir Putin, including Yuri Ushakov, Putin's foreign-policy adviser and Security Council secretary Nikolai Patrushev.

The Kyiv Independent @KyivIndependent | 1:55 AM · Nov 7, 2022:

⚡️ISW: Kremlin officials begin to deescalate their rhetoric regarding nuclear weapons use.

Vladimir Putin and key Kremlin officials had initially increased their references to the use of nuclear weapons from Putin’s Sept. 30 annexation speech and throughout October.

This was likely done to "pressure Ukraine into negotiations and to reduce Western support for Kyiv," the Institute for the Study of War reports. However, the Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs released a statement on Nov. 2* on “the prevention of nuclear war."

"The Kremlin’s rhetorical shift indicates that senior Russian military commanders and the Kremlin are likely to some extent aware of the massive costs for little operational gain Russia would incur for the use of nuclear weapons against Ukraine or NATO," the ISW found.

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>24 margd: Nov 4, 2022, "Xi Jinping called on the international community to "reject the threat of nuclear weapons and advocate against a nuclear war to prevent a crisis on the Eurasian continent."

Viktor Kovalenko @MrKovalenko | 12:16 AM · Nov 7, 2022:
Author of the podcast @UkraineDecoded. Former Ukraine's journalist & veteran.

A notorious Moscow Orthodox priest Mikhail Vasiliev who spent 24 years "blessing" Russian Strategic Nuclear Forces was killed on the front in #Ukraine, reports @RFERL.

He suggested grieving Rus mothers to give birth to more sons instead of protesting Putin's regime. *

Photo (https://twitter.com/MrKovalenko/status/1589487030538743809/photo/1)
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* 1:01 ( https://twitter.com/Gerashchenko_en/status/1584968900764372992 )

Bill Kristol @BillKristol | 8:40 AM · Nov 7, 2022
Director, http://defendingdemocracytogether.org. Editor at large, http://thebulwark.com. Host, http://conversationswithbillkristol.org.

Close Putin ally and sponsor of the Wagner group of mercenaries Yevgeny Prigozhin: "We have interfered {in U.S. elections}, we are interfering and we will continue to interfere. Carefully, accurately, surgically and in our own way, as we know how to do."

Russia's Prigozhin admits interfering in U.S. elections
7 Nov 2022
https://www.reuters.com/world/us/russias-prigozhin-admits-interfering-us-electio...
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Samuel Ramani @SamRamani2 | 7:10 AM · Nov 7, 2022:
DPhil/PhD Intl Relations @UniofOxford, Assoc Fellow @RUSI_org,
Bylines @ForeignPolicy, WaPo etc ...

Yevgeny Prigozhin on US midterm election interference allegations:
"Gentlemen, we interfered, we interfere and we will interfere"

Given Prigozhin’s long history of denying election interference, this could be trolling. Or a sign that he is going public with his political influence operations just like did with the Wagner Group

{English translation}
We publish a comment by Evgeny Viktorovich:
“I will answer you very subtly, delicately and I apologize, I will allow a certain ambiguity. Gentlemen, we interfered, we interfere and we will interfere. Carefully, precisely, surgically and in our own way, as we know how. During our pinpoint operations, we will remove both kidneys and the liver at once.”
https://t.me/Prigozhin_hat/1978

Ru equivalent of West's reliance on Ru natural gas?

Putin Tried for Years to Stop His Military From Using Western Parts — And Mostly Failed
Alberto Nardelli | October 14, 2022:

...Previously unreported assessments show a program with specific targets was put in place from 2019 to slash Russia’s dependence on Western parts for its arsenal by 2025 — everything from radar to advanced submarines to anti-missile defense systems. But an internal review of the plan 10 months before Putin invaded Ukraine found it was falling short on almost every metric.

Conversations with European officials including those familiar with the audit report highlight the protracted struggle by Russian companies and the trade ministry to move away from parts supplied by NATO member states and Ukraine. One of the Russian assessments explicitly warned the state’s defense procurement program could fail under a tougher sanctions regime

...Information on Russia’s challenges sourcing components has been shared among a number of Western governments and fed into the discussions on trade penalties imposed since late February...

Shortages of modern weapons have forced Russia to rely on models dating to the Soviet era, many of which are less accurate and reliable, according to US and European officials. They said the Kremlin is unlikely to be able to sustain the kinds of massive assaults on Ukrainian infrastructure seen this week, despite Putin’s threats to continue escalating...

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-10-14/putin-tried-for-years-to-stop...

>19 davidgn: As I was saying... https://www.usnews.com/news/world/articles/2022-11-04/train-crosses-north-korea-...

This is a superb visualization of European history (1500-2022).
6:50 ( https://twitter.com/xruiztru/status/1589622943122075650 )

- Xavi Ruiz @xruiztru | 9:16 AM · Nov 7, 2022:
International Relations and History 📚 • Comms Manager at @eurojewcong📲 • Here I mostly post maps & graphs...

The Kyiv Independent @KyivIndependent | 6:07 AM · Nov 8, 2022
https://twitter.com/KyivIndependent/status/1589937703545888768

⚡️ Bloomberg: US quietly asks some banks to keep working with Russia.

The U.S. Treasury and the State Department have reportedly asked major American banks, including JPMorgan and Citigroup, not to refuse to cooperate with "certain strategic Russian companies" to minimize the adverse effects of sanctions, Bloomberg reported on Nov. 7.

According to the story, officials called on banks not to refuse to provide "basic services," such as money transfers and conversion into dollars, to companies that are not directly targeted by sanctions, such as Gazprom, Uralkali, and PhosAgro.

{margd: Last two produce fertilizer. Putin demanded payment for oil and gas in rubles--maybe that's why Gazprom is in the list? So no excuse to accept dollars?}

The Kyiv Independent @ The Kyiv Independent | 8:56 AM · Nov 8, 2022:

⚡️ Official: First Russian ships with military gear entered Mariupol port.

Building materials, medicines for military hospitals, and several hundred sets of military uniforms have been brought to the occupied city of Mariupol through its port for the first time, according to Petro Andriushchenko, an advisor to the Mariupol mayor.

Andriushchenko also said the Russian forces are massively recruiting factory workers for the so-called "business trip" to Kherson Oblast, however, there is a risk that, in this way, they could be illegally drafted into the Russian army.
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Anton Gerashchenko @Gerashchenko_en | 11:32 AM · Nov 8, 2022
They say this is how Putin moves around Moscow: blocked streets,huge speed and over a dozen of armored cars with flashing lights.

0:12 (https://twitter.com/Gerashchenko_en/status/1590019435225501697)

>39 margd: Gee, what’s he afraid of? And where does he have to go?

>40 2wonderY: Looks like the Dictator Dash!

Anton Gerashchenko @Gerashchenko_en | 11:05 AM · Nov 9, 2022:
Ukrainian patriot. Advisor to the Minister of Internal Affairs of Ukraine. Founder of the Institute of the Future. Official enemy of Russian propaganda

📹: Russian Defense Minister Shoigu orders to begin withdrawing troops over the Dnipro river

0:29 ( https://twitter.com/Gerashchenko_en/status/1590375073969340416 )

Wounded Russian soldiers reportedly abandoned in retreat from Kherson city
Peter Beaumont, Pjotr Sauer and Isobel Koshiw | Fri 11 Nov 2022

Ukraine forces said to have reached city centre as Putin’s troops make apparently chaotic withdrawal...*

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/nov/11/reports-of-wounded-soldiers-being-...
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* 0:38 ( https://twitter.com/JimmySecUK/status/1591058457817681920 )

{Don't need to know Ukrainian to guess what crowd is chanting... Touching: the old man wiping away tears in last frame.}

Anton Gerashchenko @Gerashchenko_en | 10:22 AM · Nov 12, 2022
Ukrainian patriot. Advisor to the Minister of Internal Affairs of Ukraine. Founder of the Institute of the Future. Official enemy of Russian propaganda

Moscow residents did come to the rally, chanting " to Washington" and demanding urgently "to strike at the decision-making centers with Sarmat rockets".

1:55 ( https://twitter.com/Gerashchenko_en/status/1591451434939293698 )

* The RS-28 Sarmat (Russian: РС-28 Сармат,... named after the Sarmatians;... NATO reporting name: SS-X-29... or SS-X-30...), known as "Satan II", is a Russian liquid-fueled, MIRV-equipped super-heavy intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) produced by the Makeyev Rocket Design Bureau since 2009... It is intended to replace the R-36M ICBM (SS-18 'Satan') in Russia's arsenal...

The Sarmat is one of the six new Russian strategic weapons unveiled by Russian president Vladimir Putin on 1 March 2018... The RS-28 Sarmat made its first test flight on 20 April 2022,.. and the Russian government expects the missile is entering service in 2022. On August 16, 2022, a state contract was signed for the manufacture and supply of the Sarmat strategic missile system... (Wikipedia)
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Julia Davis (The Daily Beast) @JuliaDavisNews | 11:45 AM · Nov 12, 2022:
Meanwhile in Russia: a rally, demanding for Moscow to strike Washington. They cite Putin's words: "We will go to heaven as martyrs and they will simply croak."

Combat operations by Ukrainian defenders on the Kinburn Spit are the subject of online hints and chatter.

We await official confirmation from the Armed Forces of Ukraine with particular interest as this would indicate a flanking manoeuvre to cross the Dnipro River.

Map ( https://twitter.com/mhmck/status/1591896787551649792 )

- Michael MacKay @mhmck | 3:52 PM · Nov 13, 2022

Toward a Common Set of Signals from the G20 about Russia’s War in Ukraine (International Crisis Group)

The G20 countries’ positions on the war in Ukraine contrast starkly, yet the conflict raises issues of global concern – economic shocks and nuclear risks – that the leaders cannot pass over in silence. The G20 meeting is, therefore, an opportunity for leaders to signal common positions about the war. Their primary focus should be on concrete commitments by the G20 countries to help poorer ones navigate economic turmoil...

The Kyiv Independent @KyivIndependent | 5:17 AM · Nov 14, 2022:

⚡️AP: Russian foreign minister hospitalized in Bali, Indonesia.

Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov has been taken to hospital with a health problem after his arrival at the G20 summit in Indonesia on Nov. 14, AP reported, citing three unnamed sources.

Two of the sources said he was being treated for a heart condition. Russia's Foreign Ministry called this information a fake.
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Pjotr Sauer @PjotrSauer | 4:36 AM · Nov 14, 2022:

Lavrov at his hotel in Bali. Says reports about his health are a "political game"

1:35 ( https://twitter.com/KyivIndependent/status/1592099449714647041 )

Quote Tweet
Pjotr Sauer @PjotrSauer | 4:23 AM · Nov 14, 2022
Maria Zakharova, the Russian foreign ministry spokeswoman, said this was a "fake" and that she read the news alongside Lavrov

{margd: looks like his is a ground floor room--smart! ;) }
---------------------------------------------

Indonesian officials: Russia's Lavrov treated at hospital
NINIEK KARMINI | November 14, 2022

...Russian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Maria Zakharova later denied that Lavrov had been hospitalized, calling it “the highest level of fakes.” She did not address whether he had received medical treatment.

She posted a video of Lavrov, looking healthy in a T-shirt and shorts, in which he was asked to comment on the report.

“They’ve been writing about our president for 10 years that he’s fallen ill. It’s a game that is not new in politics,” Lavrov says in the video.

Russia’s state news agency Tass separately cited Lavrov as saying, “I’m in the hotel, reading materials for the summit tomorrow.”

Lavrov is the highest-ranking Russian official at the G-20 meeting, which U.S. President Joe Biden, China's Xi Jinping and other leaders are attending.

Four Indonesian government and medical officials told The Associated Press that Lavrov was treated at the Sanglah Hospital in the provincial capital, Denpasar.

All of the officials declined to be identified as they were not authorized to discuss the matter publicly. Two of the people said Lavrov had been treated for a heart condition...

https://news.yahoo.com/indonesian-officials-russian-fm-lavrov-090854811.html

Kherson

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/11/13/world/europe/russia-kherson-ukraine.html?refe...

The manner in which each army entered his city, one in February, the other last week, was telling, he said.

“When our soldiers drove in, their machine guns were pointed up, into the air,” Mr. Bloshko said. “When the Russians drove in, their guns were pointed at the people. That explains everything. And they said they were our liberators.”

The Kyiv Independent @KyivIndependent | 8:02 PM · Nov 14, 2022:

⚡️Zambia seeks explanation after national conscripted by Russia and sent to Ukraine.

Zambia's government has asked Russia how its citizen serving jail time in Moscow was recruited to fight in Ukraine, where he was killed, Zambia's FM Stanley Kakubo said, Reuters reports.

According to Kakubo, the Zambian national was a student who was serving a jail sentence near Moscow after being convicted of breaking Russian law.

Reuters also quoted the student's father, who said that he did not know who conscripted him from the prison.
------------------------------------------------

The Kyiv Independent @KyivIndependent | 12:11 PM · Nov 14, 2022:

⚡️Putin signs a decree allowing foreigners to serve in Russian army.

Russian President Vladimir Putin signed a decree that allows foreign citizens to serve in the ranks of Russia's Armed Forces, the state news agency TASS reported on Nov. 14.

Earlier, these folks spoke approvingly of teaching Russian kindergartners to handle weapons...

Julia Davis (The Daily Beast) @JuliaDavisNews | 9:07 PM · Nov 14, 2022:

Meanwhile in Russia: pundits and experts are appalled their saboteurs and sleeper cells aren't blowing up local tractor factories in Ukraine. They propose recruiting Ukrainian children from disadvantaged families for Russia's nefarious plans against the nation it invaded.

4:22 ( https://twitter.com/JuliaDavisNews/status/1592338570467233793 )

Wonder how Navalny is doing... (He published photos of Putin's mansion.)

Life of a Dictator
Photos mansion, yacht
https://twitter.com/CJIL7777/status/1592328957034369024/photo/1

- Jayson @CJIL7777 | 8:29 PM · Nov 14, 2022

Anton Gerashchenko @Gerashchenko_en | 6:43 AM · Nov 15, 2022:
Ukrainian patriot. Advisor to the Minister of Internal Affairs of Ukraine. Founder of the Institute of the Future. Official enemy of Russian propaganda

Lavrov at the G20 summit said that a hybrid war unleashed by the West is now going on in Ukraine and described the conditions for negotiations as unrealistic and inadequate.
Russia, as always, has nothing to do with it...

0:45 ( https://twitter.com/Gerashchenko_en/status/1592483334080581634 )
______________________________________

cartoon
https://twitter.com/Notononsense2/status/1592484650911682560/photo/1

Anton Gerashchenko @Gerashchenko_en | 7:55 AM · Nov 15, 2022:

⚡️Massive missile attack! Missiles have entered our airspace.

Today Russians will try to repeat the 10th of October. Air raid alert all over Ukraine, except Crimea.

Two apparently Russian missiles landed in Poland, 12 miles from the Ukrainian border, killing two. Moldova is also experiencing power outages because of missile strikes.

https://apnews.com/article/russia-ukraine-war-zelenskyy-kherson-9202c032cf3a5c22...

The Kyiv Independent @KyivIndependent | 11:16 PM · Nov 15, 2022:

⚡️CNN: NATO reportedly tracked missile that landed in Poland.

“Intel with the radar tracks of the missile was provided to NATO and Poland,” a NATO military official told CNN.

NATO aircraft have been conducting regular surveillance around Ukraine since Feb. 24. There is no information on who launched the missile that was tracked, nor where it was fired from.
-----------------------------------------------------------

Poland missile ‘unlikely’ to have been fired from Russia, Biden says
Patrick Wintour | 15 Nov 2022

...Asked if the missile was fired from Russia, Biden said: “There is preliminary information that contests that. I don’t want to say that until we completely investigate. But it is unlikely in the minds {sic} of its trajectory that it was fired from Russia.” He added: “But we will see, we will see...We agreed to support Poland’s investigation into the explosion in rural Poland, near the Ukrainian border, and they’re going to make sure we figure out exactly what happened.”

...The Polish Ministry of Foreign Affairs described the missile as a “Russian-made” missile, a phrase that could include S-300 ground to air missiles in the possession of Ukraine.

...Turkey’s president, Recep Tayyip Erdogan...“I have met with the German chancellor, Olaf Scholz. There is general impression that this missile is not Russian made and this declaration paves the way to certain facts so we should not insist this missile was launched from Russia. This would be a provocation.” He added: “Peace can only be established through dialogue and we want to establish dialogue.”

...Biden...convened an emergency meeting of the G7 group of western leaders to discuss the implications of the strike in Poland...Canada, Italy, France, Germany, the UK, the US and Japan. The two EU leaders Charles Michel and Ursula von der Leyen also attended, as did the Dutch prime minister Mark Rutte and the Spanish prime minister Pedro Sánchez. Among the national leaders only Japan is not a member of the Nato alliance.

Russia’s defence ministry denied that Russian missiles hit Polish territory, describing reports as “a deliberate provocation aimed at escalating the situation...No strikes on targets near the Ukrainian-Polish state border were made by Russian means of destruction.”

...Poland is seeking Nato consultations under Article 4 as opposed to actions in self-defence as prescribed under Article 5...Nato is likely to meet at the official level in Brussels. The UN secretary general António Guterres described the attack as incredibly concerning before convening a meeting of the UN security council later on Wednesday

...Ukrainian foreign minister Dmytro Kuleba ... “Russia now promotes a conspiracy theory that it was allegedly a missile of Ukrainian air defense that fell on the Polish theory. Which is not true. No one should buy Russian propaganda or amplify its messages. This lesson should have been long learnt since the downing of MH17”, the Malaysian civilian aircraft shot down by Russia in Ukrainian airspace. {2014}

He later said he had held a detailed call with the US secretary of state Antony Blinken on the “Russian missile terror – its scale, aims, consequences. I stressed the response to what happened in Poland must be stiff and principled.” He added he was “grateful for affirming the US will double down on recovering our energy system, together with G7 and the EU.”

..Poland and Ukraine are likely to demand an increase in air protection in eastern Europe. Ukraine ...defence minister Oleksii Reznikov...“We were asking to close the sky, because sky has no borders. Not for Russian uncontrolled missiles. Not for the threat they carry for our EU & Nato neighbours. Gloves are off. Time to win”...

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2022/nov/16/poland-missile-unlikely-to-have-...

The Kyiv Independent @KyivIndependent | 10:45 AM · Nov 16, 2022:
⚡️ CNN: Ukraine tells US, allies it attempted missile interception near Poland.

Ukraine informed the U.S. and its allies that it tried to intercept a Russian missile near and in the timeframe of the missile strike on Poland on Nov. 15, CNN reported, citing a U.S. official.

It is currently unclear whether the missile that hit Poland was the same missile that Ukraine’s military attempted to intercept. Earlier, U.S. President Joe Biden said it is “unlikely in the lines of the trajectory that it the missile was fired from Russia, but we’ll see.”

>11 davidgn:

Thanks for those links! There's a lot of interesting stuff on that channel.

Russia apparently does not subscribe to Convention of 29 May 1993 on Protection of Children and Cooperation in Respect of Intercountry Adoption, which gives effect to Article 21 of the United Nations Convention on the Rights of the Child... https://assets.hcch.net/docs/e5960426-2d1b-4fe3-9384-f8849d51663d.pdf

The Kyiv Independent @KyivIndependent | 12:09 AM · Nov 17, 2022:

⚡️ ISW: Russia promotes forced adoption of Ukrainian children.

The Institute for the Study of War said that Russian military bloggers started circulating videos with Ukrainian children who were illegally deported and adopted into Russian families.

The videos claim that more than 150,000 children have been illegally deported from Donbas in 2022, the ISW said.

The ISW reported that Russia's forced adoptions and deportations of Ukrainian children "under the guise of vacation and rehabilitation schemes" likely result in a deliberate ethnic cleansing campaign on top of apparent violations of the Genocide Convention.

Why a price will have to be paid for peace in Ukraine (The Tablet)

The war between Russia and Ukraine seems less likely than ever to end in complete victory for either side. It is heading for a stalemate... This is an opportunity to give peace a chance... The West is Ukraine’s major arms supplier but is not a belligerent party. It has no war aims of its own. Its priority must be the speedy cessation of hostilities. As well as guaranteeing Ukraine’s sovereignty and security, the settlement must include measures that will defuse the tension and suspicion between Russia and Nato – in other words, a comprehensive peace treaty that makes it clear Nato is a defensive pact, with no wish to expand further eastwards...

Euan MacDonald @Euan_MacDonald | 3:27 AM · Nov 17, 2022:
Editor-At-Large, http://english.nv.ua, New Voice of Ukraine; BBC freelancer. Totally biased: against fascist regimes; in favor of democracy, rule of law, human rights.

Spectacular footage: Two Russian Kalibr cruise missiles shot down within seconds over Kyiv Oblast on Nov. 15. First is audible explosion and glow on horizon, second a clear view of interception by German Iris-T air defense system.

0:38 ( https://twitter.com/Euan_MacDonald/status/1593158987800641536 )

Kherson euphoria highlights the folly of a premature peace with Putin
Peter Dickinson | November 17, 2022

...Despite overwhelming evidence of the Kremlin’s genocidal agenda in Ukraine, opinion pieces continue to appear with depressing regularity in the international media arguing that the time has come for Ukraine’s Western partners to pressure the country into peace talks.

...compromising with the Kremlin actually means condemning millions of Ukrainians to the horrors of Russian occupation

...Russian war crimes

...methodical Russian bombardment of cities

...desire to eradicate all traces of Ukrainian national identity

...Russia currently occupies around 20% of Ukraine. Any peace agreement reached in the near future would inevitably involve ceding some or all of this territory to Moscow for an indefinite period. Millions of Ukrainians would then face a desperate future. Many would make the agonizing choice to flee their homes for free Ukraine, leaving behind their former lives and worldly possessions. Those who remained would be forced to adopt a Russian imperial identity or risk savage repression if they continued to resist.

Despite the risks involved, resistance would likely continue.

...Ukraine has already shattered the myth of Russia’s military invincibility and has successfully liberated more than half the territory occupied since the invasion began nearly nine months ago.

...any compromise would come with crippling costs. For Ukraine, it would mean betraying and abandoning millions of citizens. For Western leaders, it would mean empowering Putin while sacrificing the foundational values of the democratic world. The problems posed by an aggressive and revisionist Russia would be unresolved, but the West’s position would be significantly weaker. {Putin's biting off part of Ukraine in 2014 resulted in only a pause.}

Nobody wants peace more than the Ukrainians themselves...Nevertheless, Ukrainians also understand that Putin must be defeated before peace can return...

https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/ukrainealert/kherson-euphoria-highlights-t...

Driven by our mission of “shaping the global future together,” the Atlantic Council is a nonpartisan organization that galvanizes US leadership and engagement in the world, in partnership with allies and partners, to shape solutions to global challenges.

>60 John5918:--All the devastation has been wreaked on Ukrainian soil. There are thousands of war crimes to add to that. Who is paying for Mariupol. Pre-war population was around 425 thousand people. It's pretty much destroyed. Ceding Russia Ukrainian territory and/or allowing them to walk away from war crimes and the kind of devastation they've caused throughout Ukraine is going to be a hard sell. Russia has no rights there at all.

That said at least from the perspective of the political situation in the United States an incoming Republican House is likely to shut off much of the help the United States has been sending. Believe it or not some % of the now Republican Party are pro-Putin.....that in part is thanks to Donald who found it easier to build friendships with some of the world's worst dictators than with leaders from other democracies that normally have been US allies.

The Kyiv Independent @KyivIndependent | 9:18 AM · Nov 17, 2022

⚡️⚡️ MH17 verdict: The Hague District Court qualifies Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2014 as ‘international armed conflict’ and recognizes that Russia had control over its proxies in eastern Ukraine.
----------------------------------------------------
Precedent.

Dutch court finds two Russians, one Ukrainian separatist guilty over downing of flight MH17
Sophie Tanno | Updated 8:27 PM EST, Thu November 17, 2022

...Flight MH17 was on its way from Amsterdam to Kuala Lumpur on July 17, 2014, when it was ("intentionally") shot out of the sky over territory held by pro-Russian rebels in eastern Ukraine. All 298 people on board were killed, including 15 crew members and 283 passengers from 17 countries.

The downing of the jet happened in the early phase of the conflict between pro-Russia separatists and Ukrainian forces, a precursor to Moscow’s full invasion of Ukraine earlier this year...

Thursday’s verdict, which follows a two-year trial at the highly secured Schiphol Judicial Complex in Badhoevedorp, marks the first time that independent judgment has been passed on the incident, and may provide some small amount of justice for the families of the victims.

The case has become more significant in light of Russia’s all-out invasion of Ukraine, which is nearly in its ninth month. One legal expert told Reuters that the ruling could impact other cases involving Russia, including one at the United Nation’s top court, the International Court of Justice...

https://www.cnn.com/2022/11/17/europe/mh17-trial-verdict-intl/index.html

Rikard Jozwiak @RikardJozwiak | 8:15 AM · Nov 18, 2022:
Europe Editor Radio Free Europe / Radio Liberty @RFERL.

Warsaw has decided to bar the entry of the Russian foreign minister Sergey Lavrov to #Poland for the OSCE* ministerial meeting in Lodz on 1-2 Dec. #Russia has responded with a furious letter to OSCE...

* The Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe is the world's largest regional security-oriented intergovernmental organization with observer status at the United Nations. Its mandate includes issues such as arms control, promotion of human rights, freedom of the press, and free and fair elections. Wikipedia

In St. Petersburg, Russia, a strong explosion reported in the Murino district, after which a fire started, - Russian media.
St. Petersburg governor said that the gas pipeline is on fire

4 videos ( https://twitter.com/bayraktar_1love/status/1593973079314554881 )

- Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 @bayraktar_1love | 9:22 AM · Nov 19, 2022

What are Russian objectives at Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant?
1. shield its military at Z?
2. deny energy to Ukriane?
3. threaten making Z a "dirty bomb"?
- now (NATO, world)
- later (negotiations)
4. blame Ukraine
5. preserve potential for Z to supply R-occupied Crimea?
6. pique at last night's interview w IAEA director on "60 minutes"? ( 13:14, https://twitter.com/shachar_baron/status/1594560703171551233 )
7. all of the above?

The Kyiv Independent @KyivIndependent | 8:08 AM · Nov 20, 2022:

⚡️ IAEA: Over a dozen explosions reported near Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant.

International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) experts stationed at the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant reported “powerful explosions” overnight on Nov. 19 and on the morning of Nov. 20.

Some non-critical buildings, systems, and equipment were damaged, the IAEA said, citing the plant’s manager. While the origin of the explosions is unconfirmed, Ukraine’s nuclear operator Energoatom said Russian forces shelled the area on the morning of Nov. 20, hitting 12 sites.
-------------------------------------------

Map of Zaporizhzhia attacks:
https://twitter.com/ChuckPfarrer/status/1594327359590748163/photo/1

Hope "former Israeli politician" isn't harmed for contradicting Putin's propagandist Solovyov. (Russian state TV chyron identifies him only as "former Israeli politician"--that can't be good?)

Julia Davis (The Daily Beast) @JuliaDavisNews | 10:12 PM · Nov 20, 2022:

Meanwhile in Russia: a rare moment of sanity on Russian state TV, when one panelist was finally fed up with Vladimir Solovyov's threats to wipe Kyiv or Kharkiv off the face of the earth.

3:58 ( https://twitter.com/JuliaDavisNews/status/1594529208650317824 )

Faces of Kremlin Propaganda: Margarita Simonyan
US State Dept. | August 31, 2022
https://www.state.gov/disarming-disinformation/faces-of-kremlin-propaganda-marga...

Amazing: the floor of Russian state TV is a map of Ukraine...

Julia Davis (The Daily Beast) @JuliaDavisNews | 2:11 PM · Nov 20, 2022:

Meanwhile in Russia: accused war criminal Zakhar Prilepin—who spends a lot of time on the frontlines and previously boasted of "killing many" in Ukraine—admits that Russia wants to negotiate merely to regroup and finish fighting later, any potential peace accords notwithstanding.

4:24 ( https://twitter.com/JuliaDavisNews/status/1594408064337301504 )

Uh oh--Borat...

Anton Gerashchenko @Gerashchenko_en | 8:07 AM · Nov 22, 2022:
Ukrainian patriot. Advisor to the Minister of Internal Affairs of Ukraine. Founder of the Institute of the Future. Official enemy of Russian propaganda

Attention, Kazakhstan!

They're saying you're next.

0:22 ( https://twitter.com/Gerashchenko_en/status/1595041154202058752 )

The Kyiv Independent @KyivIndependent | 6:45 AM · Nov 22, 2022:

⚡️ Ukraine summons Hungarian ambassador amid Orban’s scarf controversy.

Foreign Ministry spokesman Oleh Nikolenko said Ukraine has summoned the Hungarian ambassador after Orban attended a football match with a scarf depicting a map of Hungary including Ukrainian territories.

>70 margd: contd. (Kazakhstan)

Francis Scarr @francis_scarr | 4:25 AM · Nov 23, 2022:
With @BBCMonitoring watching Russian state TV so you don't have to
https://twitter.com/francis_scarr/status/1595347874379976704

It's dawning on Russian pundit Sergei Mikheyev that his country doesn't have the friends it thought it did

He complains that members of the 🇷🇺-led Eurasian Economic Union & Collective Security Treaty Organisation are effectively complying with Western sanctions and supporting 🇺🇦
-------------------------------------------

Russian lawmaker floats idea of Ukraine-style invasion of Kazakhstan
Duma member Konstantin Zatulin warned of potential 'territorial issues' in Kazakhstan's northern provinces after President Tokayev refused to recognise Russia-occupied areas in Ukraine.

Kanat Altynbayev | 2022-06-24

https://central.asia-news.com/en_GB/articles/cnmi_ca/features/2022/06/24/feature...

The Kyiv Independent @KyivIndependent | 1:15 PM · Nov 23, 2022:
⚡️Air Force says it downed 51 out of 70 Russian missiles, 5 kamikaze drones on Nov. 23.

Russia targeted Ukraine’s energy infrastructure, launching missiles from aircraft and ships in the Caspian Sea, the Black Sea, and Rostov Oblast, according to Ukraine's Air Force.
___________________________________

Emmanuel Macron @EmmanuelMacron | 4:41 PM · Nov 23, 2022

Officiel du gouvernement - France
Ukraine suffered massive shelling today, leaving much of the country without water or electricity. Strikes against civilian infrastructures are war crimes and cannot go unpunished.

With winter approaching, we will mobilize international support for Ukraine on December 13 to help that country remain resilient and to guarantee its energy access. We will not forget Moldova, which was also affected by water and electricity cuts.
__________________________________

Yaroslav Trofimov @yarotrof | 8:56 AM · Nov 23, 2022:
Chief Foreign-Affairs Correspondent of The Wall Street Journal. Author of Siege of Mecca.

Moldova’s president lashes out at Russia for the cruise missile attacks that knocked out her country’s electricity networks.
https://twitter.com/yarotrof/status/1595416098698035202/photo/1
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Most Moldovan power supplies restored after Russian strikes on Ukraine
Reuters | November 23, 2022
https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/half-moldova-without-power-after-russian-st...
__________________________________

The Kyiv Independent @KyivIndependent | 8:56 PM · Nov 23, 2022:

⚡️New York Times: Pope Francis compares Russia's war against Ukraine to Holodomor.

Pope Francis compared Russia's war against Ukraine to the “terrible Holodomor genocide,” the famine of Ukrainians by the Soviet authorities, which killed millions in 1932-1933.

According to the NYT, this was the Pope's strongest condemnation of the Russian invasion. “Let us pray for peace in the world, and for an end to all conflicts, with a special thought for the terrible suffering of the dear and martyred people of Ukraine,” Pope Francis said.
__________________________________

Illia Ponomarenko 🇺🇦 @IAPonomarenko | 3:50 PM · Nov 23, 2022:
Defense reporter with @KyivIndependent. Just a dude from Donbas, now living in Bucha.

So.
Again.
Russians have spent a shitload of very expensive and disposable missiles (over 30 against Kyiv alone) to cut most of Ukraine off from electricity.
By the end of the day, power grid restored in most regions, again.
Any ideas what Russians are trying to achieve here?
------------------------------------------------

Samuel Ramani @SamRamani2 | 4:30 PM · Nov 23, 2022:
DPhil/PhD Intl Relations @UniofOxford. Assoc Fellow @RUSI_org. Bylines @ForeignPolicy, etc. 3 forthcoming books HurstPublishers

This map of Ukraine in the dark is spreading on Russian Telegram
Map ( https://twitter.com/SamRamani2/status/1595530333386072081 )

Might be noted that at least part of North Vietnam’s strategy to win against the United States was to bleed our resolve and resources dry on both the home front and battle front by showing resolve in the face of everything we threw at them. Ultimately it was a successful strategy and showed that weaker nations with much less in terms of economic or military resources could overcome huge handicaps and win. Since then similar scenarios around the world have played out again and again.

It might be noted as well that even nations that don’t like their ruling regimes also don’t like to be saved by more powerful nations. No one wants a foreign occupier come to fix their problems. This is a lesson the Russians clearly haven’t learned and FWIW the United States hasn’t either and the Chinese with designs on Taiwan might someday have this same issue.

As well when you look at all the resources that the United States burned in Afghanistan and Iraq not only in men lost, maimed and psychologically damaged but the trillions of dollars spent and here are the Russians with a lot more challenged economy……and the thing is they’re so far down this path that the likelihood is their economy is going to end in complete shambles because this is what this humiliation is demanding…..that more and more be wasted until there is no more to waste.

If Russia has its way, Ukraine would not be the last... Moldova, Kazakhstan, Armenia, _______...

Anton Gerashchenko @Gerashchenko_en | 5:48 AM · Nov 24, 2022:

Yevgeny Fedorov, State Duma deputy from the United Russia party, called Armenia an "illegal state".

"How to deal with this issue? Did Armenia seceded from the Soviet Union legally? No. So it is an illegal state entity. We have to act on this basis," Fedorov said.

0:29 ( https://twitter.com/Gerashchenko_en/status/1595731113628123136 )

ETA: Image ( https://twitter.com/SjoerdNolf/status/1595832855317598208/photo/1 )
________________________________________

...In a (Sept 2022) Telegram post addressed to Russia, (Ukraine President) Zelensky asked: “Do you still think that we are ‘one nation?’ Do you still think that you can scare us, break us, make us make concessions?”

“You really did not understand anything? Don’t understand who we are? What are we for? What are we talking about?...

“Read my lips: Without gas or without you? Without you. Without light or without you? Without you. Without water or without you? Without you. Without food or without you? Without you” ...

“Cold, hunger, darkness and thirst are not as scary and deadly for us as your ‘friendship and brotherhood,’” he added. “But history will put everything in its place. And we will be with gas, light, water and food … and WITHOUT you!”

https://www.cnn.com/2022/09/12/europe/zelensky-message-kharkiv-russia-ukraine-in...

The Transnistria region which is a part of Moldova has at least been very pro-Russian and there are somewhere around 1200 Russian soldiers stationed there. That's not a large force but it complicates things.

🇷🇺 - Sanctions against Russia are very much working (updated with latest data)
• Real GDP, retail trade and vehicle manufacturing are all dropping off a cliff
• Russia is heading towards ~4% recession in 2022 and in 2023, complicating financing of war in Ukraine

Graphs ( https://twitter.com/AgatheDemarais/status/1595733969202561026/photo/1 )

- Agathe Demarais @AgatheDemarais | 6:00 AM · Nov 24, 2022:
Global forecasting director @TheEIU
• 🇫🇷🇬🇧 Young Leaders • @TheELN
• WEF
• @Les_Expertes
• Ex @DGTresor
• Sanctions book 'Backfire' ColumbiaUP

BREAKING: Hungary's Prime Minister Viktor Orban backs Sweden and Finland's accession to NATO

The Hungarian Parliament is likely to follow Orban's directive and approve NATO membership

Turkey remains the only NATO member that is resisting Sweden and Finland's accession, and its offensives against Kurds in Syria and Iraq could create new challenges

There will likely be a delay in Hungary's NATO membership ratification

A key Orban ally previously said mid-December accession was on the cards, now we are looking at early 2023. Finland recently warned about the risks of delaying accession
https://www.politico.eu/article/viktor-orban-hungary-ratification-finland-sweden...

- Samuel Ramani @SamRamani | 25:38 PM · Nov 24, 2022
DPhil/PhD Intl Relations @UniofOxford. Assoc Fellow RUSI_org. Bylines @ForeignPolicy, WaPo etc 3 forthcoming books

Carl Bildt @carlbildt 6:18 PM · Nov 24, 2022
Co-Chair European Council on Foreign Relations @ecfr
. World Health Organization Special Envoy for ACT-Accelerator who @ACTAccelerator. På svenska på @cbildt
.
I remember how cold it was in Tallinn and Riga when the then Soviet Republics sought independence and Moscow cut the gas in order to force them back into the fold. Politically it back fired with a vengeance. People got every more determined. Today 🇱🇹 🇱🇻 🇪🇪 (Lithuania, Latvia, Estonia) are free countries.
_______________________________

Olena Zelenska: We will endure
Lyse Doucet | 24 Nov 2022

..."We are ready to endure this," {Ukraine First Lady} Olena Zelenska asserts when we sit down in a heavily secured compound tucked inside a sandbagged labyrinth of buildings in Kyiv.

"We've had so many terrible challenges, seen so many victims, so much destruction, that blackouts are not the worst thing to happen to us." She cites a recent poll where 90 % of Ukrainians said they were ready to live with electricity shortages for two to three years if they could see the prospect of joining the European Union...

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-63743657

>80 margd: Here's the piece everyone seems to be missing. https://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2022/11/has-russia-already-pwnd-ukraine.html

The upshot is they're reporting that there is only one country that can provide the type of transformers that would be immediately compatible with Ukraine's current grid. That country is Russia. Call it the elephant in the room.
It appears the Ukrainians are going to need a new electric grid, re-specced from scratch, with components supplied by the West and shipped into a war zone under fire. As of yet, I don't see serious efforts towards undertaking that at scale.

The Russians know exactly what they're doing, and it's not pretty.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=N7D9P-TCVzs

It seems we're not talking "shortages" so much as grid fragmentation and collapse.

Also, meanwhile:
https://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2022/11/polands-coming-economic-collapse-a-story...
Hold on to your złotys. (Or, y'know, emphatically don't.)

>81 davidgn: So in war as well as natural disasters (Puerto Rico)--and unserviced rural areas--an important component would be non- or partially centralized grid, incorporating solar panels or heating. Amazing how much heat one can get from sun with solar heating tubes.

Also, albeit on sunny summer day, long, narrow tubes from a water bed (= hot bath!). A biologist I knew enjoyed hot showers in outback using the sun and dark-colored small (ink?) bags from printing machine. Don't know if it would work, but survivalists say one can gather generate significant heat even in winter from grid from back of refrigerator left in sun with reflective foil backing. (Just thinking about poor folk in cold and dark in Ukraine.)

>80 margd: contd.

Samuel Ramani {Oxford U} @SamRamani2 | 6:35 AM · Nov 26, 2022:

Russian MP Boris Chernyshov calls on Ukrainians to overthrow Zelensky's regime due to freezing weather and electricity outages

Russia's efforts to use the "de-electrification" of Ukraine to stoke political unrest have entered state media discourse. Igor Korotchenko spoke openly about this on Telegram. But it is interesting to see a Duma Speaker openly call for this.
3:17 ( https://twitter.com/francis_scarr/status/1596417788616536064 )

Kaya_Bala3 @kaya_bala3
That was Putins aim with nordstream stoppage of gas to Germany, start civilian unrest and it still is, except Ukraine are standing behind their President and hate Russia to the core.

originalscout @originalscout11
Not in the higher echelons. War is often the best time to knock out a leader.

Russia is obviously not afraid of attack from NATO, if it's drawing down its missiles to go after Ukrainian civilians:

The Kyiv Independent @KyivIndependent | 3:39 AM · Nov 26, 2022:

⚡️UK Defense Ministry: Russia likely removes nuclear warheads from 'aging' cruise missiles, attacks Ukraine with 'unarmed munitions.'

The Defense Ministry said the warhead of an allegedly shot down Kh-55 air-launched cruise missile had "probably been substituted for ballast."

"Russia almost certainly hopes such missiles will function as decoys and divert Ukrainian air defenses," the ministry said.

"Whatever Russia's intent, this improvisation highlights the level of depletion in Russia's stock of long-range missiles."

>82 margd: Nothing wrong with the approach. The problem is scaling...

A transformer's a transformer. I wouldn't think it would be that difficult to retool a western factory to make them to Russian grid specs

Samuel Ramani {U Oxford} @SamRamani2 | 12:01 PM · Nov 28, 2022:

BREAKING: Ukraine conducts a "test import" of electricity from Romania {a NATO member}

The test import is just 1 MW but it underscores Romania's potential to alleviate the region's electricity woes, as it is also supplying Moldova

A stark reversal from June 30 when Ukraine announced massively discounted energy exports to Romania

Dr. Daniel N Crisan {organic, polymer chemist, Romania} @DanielCrisan90:
I'd wish my country would hurry up with the 3rd and 4th Nuclear reactors at Cernavoda. And possibly more at other locations. Romania has the potential to be energetically independent AND provide to other states.

Bub Grump @CorlissReid:
I've been waiting for something like this. If Russia can't strike a source repairs to energy can be quick and cheap.

Soryinn 🇷🇴🇺🇦🇪🇺🇺🇸 @soryinn:
Romania also has 200 billion cubic meters of gas in the Black Sea to be extracted in 2023

horatiu popovici {Romania, Transylvania?} @horatiupopovici:
The Gvnmt signed a contract with US government for funding to finish 3 and 4.
Also NuScale will build one if their micro reactor here.
------------------------------------------

Samuel Ramani @SamRamani2 | 7:29 AM · Nov 29, 2022:
The U.S. has budgeted $1.1 billion in energy spending to help Ukraine and Moldova resist the impact of Russian infrastructure strikes

Countering attacks on Ukrainian energy infrastructure is likely to be a key issue at the NATO gathering in Bucharest
----------------------------------------

Samuel Ramani @SamRamani2 | 2:03 PM · Nov 25, 2022:
The EU is donating 40 generators from its reserve stock in Romania to Ukraine

A small boost to Ukraine's health care system, as each generator can supply uninterrupted electricity to a small-to-medium sized hospital
------------------------------------------

Samuel Ramani @SamRamani2 | 5:42 PM · Nov 24, 2022:
Romania is providing electricity to Moldova to alleviate blackouts

Romania is not a firewall partner against Russian infrastructure strikes on Ukraine or weaponization of gas against Moldova, as Romanian electricity shipments to Moldova pass through Ukraine

·

Seven Priorities for Preserving the OSCE in a Time of War (International Crisis Group)

What’s new? In December, foreign ministers will gather in Poland for the OSCE Ministerial Council’s annual meeting – the organisation’s first high-level gathering of this kind since Russia launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine on 24 February. The war has hurt the OSCE, upending its Ukrainian operations and compromising its decision-making ability.

Why does it matter? At the Ministerial Council, and throughout 2023, states will face a series of decisions that will bear on whether the OSCE continues to be a functioning multilateral platform able to manage regional security issues – or whether it declines in relevance and capacity.

What should be done? The OSCE remains a useful forum for bringing Russia and the West together to meet regional security challenges and prevent conflict. Participating states should work to preserve its viability amid the Ukraine war, while sustaining conflict prevention efforts in Moldova, the Western Balkans, the South Caucasus and Central Asia...

Julia Ioffe @juliaioffe | 10:47 PM · Nov 29, 2022:
Founding Partner and Washington Correspondent, @PuckNews.

Meanwhile, @elonmusk's Starlink is hiking rates on Ukrainians, who are cut off from heat and electricity.

https://t.me/insiderUKR/46431

Text announcing price increase ( https://twitter.com/juliaioffe/status/1597799370728120321/photo/1 )

Is attacking Ukraine's power grid a war crime? (BBC)

Russia's frequent and widespread attacks on Ukraine's power infrastructure have plunged millions of people into darkness, depriving them of heat, power and water just as winter arrives and temperatures drop below zero. Many Ukrainian and Western leaders quickly condemned the strikes as war crimes because of the harm done to the civilian population. But attacks on energy grids have long been part of warfare - so is Russia's strategy a violation of international law?

With certain limitations, parts of a country's electrical grid can be considered legitimate targets if they are used to power military facilities. This is true even if the targets have a civilian as well as a military purpose, so long as destroying the object would "offer a definite military advantage". Iraq's energy infrastructure was attacked by US forces in 1991 - a strategy that has been heavily criticised. Nato forces also targeted the power grid in Serbia in 1999. In both cases, the civilian population was affected by the resulting power outages. In fact, there may be times when neutralising a military facility by taking out its power supply is preferable to hitting the facility directly with missiles or artillery...

However, even when an object is a legitimate military target, there are still limits on when and how it can be attacked. "The state has an obligation under international humanitarian law (IHL) to choose a target or a tactic that will cause less damage to civilians. Less death and less injury, but still fulfilling the military advantage," Dr Maria Varaki from King's College War Studies department told the BBC. Civilian deaths and injury caused by attacks on military targets are not necessarily violations of international law. But the principle of proportionality must be applied, which says that the harm to civilians should not be excessive in relation to the military advantage gained. Parties must also take "constant care" to spare the civilian population and civilian property... The sort of advantage gained by an attack is also a factor when considering whether it is a violation of IHL. "Demoralising people, terrorising people, is not considered to be an acceptable military advantage," Dr Varaki explains. In fact, she says, the opposite is true: "Terrorising the civilian population is considered to be a war crime"... The sheer scope and scale of Russia's attacks on Ukrainian infrastructure make it unlikely that they can all be justified in that way, says Prof Schmitt. "We're at a point now where they're hitting so many targets that I can't imagine they're picking power infrastructure that qualifies as a military objective in every case"...

"You can identify a general pattern that the Russian army has not been fully concerned by civilian deaths"... Russia and Ukraine are both parties to Additional Protocol I of the Geneva Conventions, where many of these rules are defined. It remains to be seen whether Russia will ever have to explain how its actions comply with those rules.

A thread on Russian logistical weakness--this time fuel trucks. https://twitter.com/TrentTelenko/status/1598408126310424576
(US army in Afghanistan resorted to solar-powered AC, etc., because fuel trucks coming in from (Pakistan?) were targeted by Taliban, and fuel was gold.)

Trent Telenko @TrentTelenko | 3:06 PM · Dec 1, 2022:
Retired US DoD Civil Servant, Section 22 Special Interest Group list admin

Pulling a 1967 fuel truck into 2022 combat means Russia is in a world of deep logistical hurt because that late 1960's era had far, far fewer fuel trucks built per armored/mechanized unit.

The firepower of the Russian Army is in its vehicles. 17/

Vehicles have to move for Russian firepower to do the same.

That ability to move is now in doubt.

It is clear the Ukrainian military has noticed this Russian fuel distribution problem and is acting to make it worse. 18/
https://twitter.com/visegrad24/status/1598096466320711680

And worse. 19/
https://twitter.com/bradyafr/status/1597681812242833418

And worse. 20/
https://twitter.com/KidsGb/status/1595259363048161280

In fact, it looks like AFU has been striking Russian fuel depots with all the persistence of its strikes on Russian ammo depots.

So, the longer the Russian truck logistics, 21/
https://twitter.com/GossettIii/status/1593085822156173313

...and the farther from rail lines, more immobile Russian ground forces will be.

There are a whole lot of military implications centered on those 'not enough Russian fuel truck' facts. 22/22 End.
------------------------------------------------

realpufferfish1111 @realpufferfish1:
What about Rus ability to pull off any available civilian fuel truck fleet for war efforts?

Christian Kamphuis @Kamphuischris82:
Those trucks are often unsuited for off road use, and they are often way more susceptible to damage when used in rough condition or under fire. Yes, they can be used, but their (operational) attrition rate will be even higher.

There were way more mechanized Soviet divisions then there are Russian ones today. So maybe he number old trucks are sufficient to fill the gaps for a while.

Anton Gerashchenko @Gerashchenko_en | 7:36 AM · Dec 2, 2022

Large explosion at oil terminal in Bryansk, Russia* on 30th November caused a fire that burned out all the oil there.

It was used for Russian military equipment. Not anymore.

The reservoirs held several thousand tonns of oil worth several million dollars.

Someone smoked again?

Photos
https://twitter.com/Gerashchenko_en/status/1598657316743745536/photo/1
https://twitter.com/Gerashchenko_en/status/1598657316743745536/photo/2
https://twitter.com/Gerashchenko_en/status/1598657316743745536/photo/3
--------------------------------------------------

Bryansk is a city and the administrative center of Bryansk Oblast, Russia, situated on the River Desna, 379 kilometers southwest of Moscow. Population: {~400,000. Wikipedia}

Negotiating positions:

Macron says new security architecture should give guarantees for Russia
Reuters | December 3, 2022

...one of the essential points we must address - as President Putin has always said - is the fear that NATO comes right up to its doors, and the deployment of weapons that could threaten Russia," {French President} Macron said...

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/macron-says-new-security-architecture-shoul...

margd: And what guarantees will Russia offer its neighbours that it will not invade, destabilize, etc.?
------------------------------------------------

Biden, Speaking With Macron, Says He’s Open to Meeting With Putin
Zolan Kanno-Youngs | Dec. 1, 2022

Biden says he would talk to Russia’s leader but only in consultation with NATO.

“We have to respect Ukrainians to design the moments and the conditions in which they will negotiate about their territory and their future,” {French Presicent} Macron said.

https://www.nytimes.com/live/2022/12/01/us/biden-macron-news#biden-macron-france

--------------------------------------------------------

Ukraine war: Russia demands annexations recognised before talks
Paul Kirby | 3 Dec 2022

...Russia illegally annexed four Ukrainian regions at the end of September, without controlling any of them...

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-63832151

margd: I read previously that Russia negotiates by throwing out unacceptable preconditions, which they abandon later on?
--------------------------------------------------------

The Kyiv Independent @KyivIndependent | 4:23 PM · Dec 3, 2022:
Lawmaker David Arakhamia, Ukraine's chief negotiator with Russia, said Kyiv is ready to provide Russia with security guarantees after it
withdraws troops from Ukraine,
pays reparations,
brings all war criminals to justice, and
surrenders nuclear weapons.

Ukraine's chief negotiator says Russia must withdraw from Ukraine before starting talks
The Kyiv Independent news desk | December 3, 2022
https://kyivindependent.com/news-feed/ukraines-chief-negotiator-says-russia-must...

An insane photo from Kharkiv, Ukraine today. Two police officers looking at a fragment pile of Russian rockets that hit Ukraine's second largest city. h/t @alexbakus
#Kharkiv #Ukraine️ #ArmUkraineNow #RussianWarCrimes

Image ( https://twitter.com/SpencerGuard/status/1599244013764505600/photo/1 )

- John Spencer @SpencerGuard | 10:27 PM · Dec 3, 2022:
Chair of Urban Warfare Studies, | Madison Policy Forum | Major, US Army (ret) | Author 'Connected Soldiers' and 'Understanding Urban Warfare'

>87 margd: contd.

The Kyiv Independent @KyivIndependent | 12:02 PM · Dec 3, 2022:
⚡️Romania starts supplying gas to Moldova, countering dependence on Russia.

Romania aims to connect Moldovan gas transport to the European pipeline network to help Moldova fight against Russia’s gas blackmail, Romanian gas company Transgaz said in comments to Agerpress. The gas will be delivered along the Iaşi-Ungheni pipeline, completed in 2013.

>93 margd: contd.

Michael McFaul McFaul | 6:00 PM · Dec 4, 2022:
Professor of Political Science, Director of Freeman Spogli Institute & Hoover Senior Fellow all at Stanford University. U.S. Ambassador to Russia, 2012-2014.

Smart, effective diplomacy, especially with Russians, means never giving up any negotiating chit until the end game. Nothing is agreed until all is agreed. Those calling for Zelensky to give concessions before negotiations have started are violating this rule of Diplomacy 101.

I find a striking correlation in the diplomacy debate. Those that know Putin and Russia the best are those most pessimistic about diplomacy, and those that know Putin and Russia the least are the most optimistic. (But correlation is not causation.)

No one I know is against diplomacy with Putin to end his invasion of Ukraine. And no one I know has a workable, realistic strategy for achieving or even starting that process. Shouting "more diplomacy" is not a strategy. It is not "realism."
---------------------------------------------

Security guarantees
Asami Terajima | December 4, 2022

As Western leaders signal toward negotiations to end the war in Ukraine, Kyiv officials explained once again why they chose to “negotiate” on the battlefield.

Oleksiy Danilov, secretary of the National Security and Defense Council, called against granting security guarantees to Russia, countering French President Emmanuel Macron’s earlier statement.

“They want to provide a terrorist and killer country with security guarantees?” Danilov said on Facebook. “This is the strange logic of undercover diplomacy, the time of which is over.”

Danilov said that it’s the world that should receive security guarantees from Russia, not the other way around.

On Dec. 3, Macron said that the West should consider providing Russia with guarantees should Russian President Vladimir Putin agree to pursue negotiations to end the war.

In a TV interview, Macron added that Europe needs to prepare “how to give guarantees to Russia the day it returns to the negotiating table” for its future security architecture.

His statement received immediate backlash from Ukraine.

Late on Dec. 3, David Arakhamia, Ukraine’s chief negotiator with Russia, said Kyiv would only be ready to provide security guarantees to Moscow after a complete Russian military withdrawal and if “all war criminals” are brought to justice. The other conditions he listed were Moscow paying reparations and voluntarily surrendering nuclear weapons.

Earlier this week, U.S. President Joe Biden, speaking alongside Macron during a state visit, said he was ready to talk with Putin if Russia was ready to end its war.

The Kremlin turned down Biden’s offer, saying that it was open for talks “to achieve our goals” in Ukraine but it has no intentions to end the war, spokesman Peskov said.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-12-03/russia-reaped-1-billion-of-wh...

Russia Reaped $1 Billion of Wheat in Occupied Ukraine, NASA Says

NASA Harvest uses satellite imagery to model wheat crop
A quarter of Ukraine wheat is grown on land claimed by Russia

Asami Terajima | December 4, 2022

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-12-03/russia-reaped-1-billion-of-wh...

Russia’s Tear Gas Bombings In Ukraine May Be First Step In Dangerous Chemical Escalation
David Hambling | Nov 1, 2022

https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidhambling/2022/11/01/yes-these-are-chemical-wea...

Yaroslav Trofimov @yarotrof | 2:28 AM · Dec 5, 2022
Chief Foreign-Affairs Correspondent of The Wall Street Journal. Author of Siege of Mecca.

Russian media reports that a Ukrainian drone attack hit the Engels airport, damaging two Tu-95 strategic bombers that are used to lob cruise missiles at Ukrainian cities. Dramatic to say the least. Another hit reported on a Russian military airport near Ryazan.
---------------------------------------------------

Christo Grozev @christogrozev | 4:48 AM · Dec 5, 2022:
We are Bellingcat.

After reports in Russian military channels that Ukraine drones destroyed two strategic Tu-95 bombers and crew deep in Russia's rear, in Engels, now Ukraine reports that 14 other Tu-95 have taken off from that military airport. Could be a revenge attack, or just keeping them safe.
---------------------------------------------------

Anton Gerashchenko @Gerashchenko_en | 3:44 AM · Dec 5, 2022:
Ukrainian patriot. Advisor to the Minister of Internal Affairs of Ukraine. Founder of the Institute of the Future. Official enemy of Russian propaganda

Some sources report that this morning planes based on Engels and Ryazan air fields were scheduled to bomb Ukrainian energy infrastructure yet again.
--------------------------------------------------

Michael MacKay @mhmck@mas.to
@mhmck | 3:41 PM · Dec 4, 2022:
Ph.D. from the LSE ... veteran of Ukraine democratic and civil society renaissance ... election observer ... chronicler of Muscovy's war ... from Upper Canada {Ontario?}

The Ukrainian defence conglomerate Ukroboronprom successfully tested a "kamikaze" strike drone with a range of one thousand kilometres. It can carry a 75 kg warhead.

{Google Translate--DK "Ukroboronprom" conducted a number of successful tests of the Ukrainian strike drone with a range of one thousand kilometers.}
https://ukrinform.ua/rubric-technology/3627601-ukrainskij-dronkamikadze-uspisno-...

Areas from which Russia stages its criminal invasion of Ukraine would be within range.
Map ( https://twitter.com/mhmck/status/1599504060511444992/photo/1 )

>99 margd: contd.

Samuel Ramani @SamRamani2 | 2:53 PM · Dec 5, 2022:

This photo of a strategic bomber in Ryazan is what the Russian Defence Ministry is calling "minor damage"
Photo ( https://twitter.com/SamRamani2/status/1599854402025627648/photo/1 )
-------------------------------------------------------

NLwartracker @NLwartracker | 10:33 PM · Dec 5, 2022
Tracking usage/capture/destruction of weapon systems in #Ukraine theater of operations. Sharing combat footage and more follow @nlwartracker to keep up-to-date!
{With discussion} https://twitter.com/NLwartracker/status/1599970234953519105
{One click, no discussion} https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1599970234953519105.html

Small 🧵 about the attack probably by a suicide drone @ engels AFB, near Saratov, Russia. Facts we know are an attack on the AFB happend at 12-05 @ 06.00, which is exactly the right time to strike such a target, between 6 & 7 in the morning, AD crews would normally be changing
Image...

________________________________
The Kyiv Independent @KyivIndependent | 11:06 AM · Dec 5, 2022:

⚡️Stellar Ukrainian air defense performance praised by Zelensky as over 60 Russian missiles shot down.

Over 60 out of just over 70 Russian cruise missiles were shot down on Dec. 5 by Ukrainian air defense and planes, according to figures published by the Ukrainian Air Force.

Michael McFaul McFaul | 1:39 AM · Dec 6, 2022:

As a Ukrainian friend reminded me today, Ukraine did not just give up nuclear weapons when signing the Budapest Memorandum, but also the strategic delivery vehicles - bombers and rockets - that would have been very useful to Ukraine in the fight to repel the Russain invaders now.

Quote Tweet
Oleksii Reznikov @oleksiireznikov | 11:11 AM · Dec 5, 2022:
Minister of Defence of Ukraine

Today marks the 28th anniversary of the Budapest Memorandum.
Ukraine fulfilled its part of the agreement to voluntarily give up its nuclear weapons in exchange for security assurances from 🇺🇲🇷🇺🇬🇧 1/3

19 years later, russia waged war against us. To mark the anniversary of the agreement, today russia launched a new wave of missile attacks against Ukraine.
The reaction of the world was insufficient. 2/3

This cannot happen again. Agreements must be honored. Evil must be punished.
Ukraine's victory = a new global security architecture = peace and stability in Europe. 3/3
---------------------------------------

Samuel Ramani @SamRamani2 | 1:03 PM · Dec 5, 2022:

Zelensky advisor Mykhailo Podolyak facetiously proposes Ukraine guarantees Russia's security in exchange for Russia abandoning its nukes

The Budapest Memorandum in reverse on its anniversary

Kursk is provincial center east of Ukraine border, ~ same latitude as Kiev.

Anton Gerashchenko @Gerashchenko_en | 2:14 AM · Dec 6, 2022

A large fire at Kursk airfield in Russia.

It is said that an oil tanker {tank?} is on fire after a supposed drone attack.

Videos ( https://twitter.com/Gerashchenko_en/status/1600025882923614209 )
-------------------------------------------------

Steve Rosenberg @BBCSteveR | 1:50 AM · Dec 6, 2022:
russia editor for BBC News

Another attack reported this morning. According to the governor of Kursk region, a drone attack on an airfield there set fire to an oil storage tank.

>99 margd: >100 margd: contd. Uh oh, Russia's nuclear policy has it able to respond if infrastructure to use nukes is attacked--like an airforce base? Then again, on can't attack civilian infrastructure in a neighour without expecting to be attacked in return... Ukrainians at least aren't attacking Ru civilians.

Steve Rosenberg @BBCSteveR | 1:30 AM · Dec 6, 2022:
Russia Editor for BBC News

After the drone attacks on two Russian airbases, one Russian paper today slams the “failure of the whole (Russian) anti-aircraft defence system.” Another: “So it turns out that enemy drones managed to travel hundreds of kilometres & avoid our defence systems?” #ReadingRussia

2:32 in English ( https://twitter.com/BBCSteveR/status/1600014676007342080 )

Jfjfjfjfjf @Jfjfdddddd:
On the last comment on the film, they can’t spread these aging bombers around as there are very few bases equipped to service them and prepare for sorties, they’re basically stuck with these locations, and apparently vulnerable there.

The Dissident Civil Servant @dissident_the:
Russian Air Force, like our own, has had to consider the huge 'peacetime' expense of multiple airfields capable of supporting a single (not very numerous) type of aircraft. In the UK we have headed towards a situation where we have (almost) one air base per aircraft type.

What a trail of tears a winter evacuation of 3 million people would be...

Samuel Ramani (Oxford U) @SamRamani2 | 2:45 PM · Dec 5, 2022

Former Kremlin advisor Sergei Markov says that Russia struck Kyiv at minus 8 degree weather to stop water supply and burst frozen pipes

The result would be the destruction of Kyiv's sewage system and the complete evacuation of Kyiv in winter and spring

Might as well be hung for a sheep as a lamb?
Give US two "fronts" (threatened allies).
If successful, have something to show Ru citizenry?
China, North Korea...

Samuel Ramani (Oxford U) @SamRamani2 | 6:56 AM · Dec 6, 2022:

BREAKING: Russia inflames tensions with Japan by deploying mobile coastal defence missiles system on a northern Kuril Island

Vsevolod @SevaSamokhvalov | 4:33 AM · Dec 1, 2022:
Adjunct Professor, Uni of Liege/Free Uni Brussels. Book: Russian-European Relations in the Black Sea
https://twitter.com/SevaSamokhvalov/status/1598248831766130688

As sinister as they are Russian security services have always checked public opinion by running closed sociological surveys, using quite sophisticated techniques to extract the real mood of people. A recent public opinion survey shows a tectonic shift in the Russian society - 55%

of Russians are against this war. Furthermore, only 25% believe that Russia should continue this war. The rest 20% are undecided which means they would rather see all this "bullsh-t wrapped up". This result is confirmed by the survey of another last respectable semi-independent

pollster Levada Centre, which says 57% against the war. Three take-aways from this change. First, at least one Russian security services (Federal Protective Service - FPS) starts game of its own. Not only does it report to President that the situation is bad, but it also leaks it

to the media. And Russian intel officers know all well that leaking such an info will only empower anti-war attitudes. Second, leaking video with an alleged criminal authority Sasha Kurara who spoke against quickly rising Putin's associate Evgeniy Prigozhyn suggests that Russian

special services are trying to undermine his quest for power. This video has not been purged from Russian internet (you can still find it thru Russian search engine Yandex). This means at least Federal Protective Service and Federal Security Service decided not to remove it.

A quick reminder: Federal Protective Service is small, but very important actor. It is responsible for personal security of President and security of all governing bodies of Russia. Effectively they control the center of Moscow, Kremlin building and even President's brass-band.

Third, this significant change comes after a noticeable change in the mood on Russian TV channels. The anchors do not openly challenge the idea of war, but they keep highlighting that extreme difficulty of the situation on the front. At the same time, they silence those speakers

who voice radical views - escalation of war, nuclear strike and nationalization of Western assets in Russia. This approach does not challenge Putin's story and there is still a lot of heroic rhetoric. And yet this script increases the feeling of hopelessness and disempowers those

who still support the war. Kremlin ideologues and Russian security service have enough sinister intellectuals who could crack this 'Aesopian language'. But it seems to continue which means that several government TV-channels were allowed or even encouraged to do it.

This means that at least some Kremlin ideologues and some security service officers decided to launch anti-war campaign. Not because they are pacifists, but because they fear that if war continues military empire of Prigozhyn and Chechen leader Kadyrov would gain even more power.

Apparently, they fear this scenario so much that they are prepared to go beyond bureaucratic politics and raise stakes by stirring social discontent and mobilizing all possible allies (including liberals, criminals, etc). In this context, Putin becomes an observer and the future

of Russia will be shaped by the clash of these two forces. Until recently it looked like Prigozhyn's military company and Chechen battalions of Kadyrov had more soldiers to claim the power. But if security services manage to ride on the wave of discontent and lead de-escalation

they might have enough legitimacy and soldiers to grab power in the capital and networks to control the rest of the country. If they prevail this wouldn't mean that Russia becomes democratic overnight. But de-escalation & period of internal work would follow. Let's see how it goes

{Discussion at https://twitter.com/SevaSamokhvalov/status/1598248831766130688 }

Avdiivka or Avdeevka is a city of regional significance in Ukraine's Donetsk Oblast. The city is in the center of the region, just north of the city of Donetsk. Avdiivka has a large Avdiivka Coke Plant. (Wikipedia)

Michael McFaul McFaul | 3:41 PM · Dec 7, 2022:
{Stanford U, frmr US Ambassador to Russia}
This is terrorism. Some governments and parliaments have rightly designated Russia a state sponsor of terrorism. Time for others to do the same.

Quote Tweet
FLASH @Flash_news_ua | 2:17 PM · Dec 7, 2022:

⚡️ Russian troops are shelling Avdiivka with phosphorus bombs right now. Video from social networks.

0:42 ( https://twitter.com/Flash_news_ua/status/1600570150700335138 )
----------------------------------------------

Simon 🏕️🛶 @IHearSimon:
That's actually thermite, not white phosphorus, for what it is worth.

Paolo Bernardi @Paolo_Bernardi:
Correct. Not like is any better

...White phosphorus has a different shape like tentacles a little blueish; it burns at 800C for a longer time than thermite. But thermite is as bad actually when you think it goes over 2000C destroys everything below (metal concrete and of course people animal vegetation).

It could also be napalm or thermite. If used against military targets, it is not a crime. Different story if it is used against protected persons and buildings, per Geneva Conventions of 1949 and additional protocols to which, w/o a doubt, RF is a signatory party

>107 margd: contd.

NOËL 🇪🇺 🇺🇦 @NOELreports | 2:12 PM · Dec 7, 2022:
Reports on conflict zones, especially #Ukraine...

The front at Avdiivka right now. A burning hell.
0:20 ( https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1600568976840482816 )

More on what led to this. Russians using what looks to be incendiary ammunition.

They are doing everything to force a breakthrough...

Most likely 9M22S incendiary rockets fired from Grad MRLS.
Photo ( https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1600597550645624833/photo/1 )

Klaus Roehl @Klaus_Roehl:
Russia uses Thermite ammunition. Burns at 3,000 degrees celsius and can't be extinguished.

BREAKING: Putin and his cronies have an evacuation plan in place to flee Russia in case he loses the war and is stripped of power, according to a former aide. High-ranking Kremlin officials have begun buying up real estate and working on getting residency rights in Venezuela.

https://www.thedailybeast.com/vladimir-putin-is-preparing-to-flee-to-venezuela-w...

- Jon Cooper @joncoopertweets | 8:13 AM · Dec 8, 2022:
Former National Finance Chair of Draft Biden, LI Campaign Chair for Barack Obama. ...
https://twitter.com/joncoopertweets/status/1600841033473925120

Russian Ambassador to Kazakhstan Alexei Borodavkin says that Russia will help Tokayev crush "nationalism" and "extremism" in Kazakhstan

This statement is causing massive backlash in Kazakhstan

Erlan Koshanov, the speaker of the lower house of Kazakhstan, openly urged the ambassador not to align with Russian propagandists

Dmitry Peskov {Russian diplomat and the press secretary for Russian President Vladimir Putin} has insisted that "Kazakhs are Nazis" commentaries on state media don't reflect official policy
https://www.delfi.ee/artikkel/120111488/vene-saadik-kasahstanis-kurtis-natsional...

A leading Kazakh commentator says that if Russia invades Kazakhstan, there will be corpses of conscripts on the steppes

He accuses propagandists calling for nukes on Almaty and annexing northern/eastern Kazakhstan of bringing Russophobia on themselves*

- Samuel Ramani {U oxford} @SamRamani2 | 6:20 AM · Dec 9, 2022
https://twitter.com/SamRamani2/status/1601175025423290368
---------------------------------------------

* Anton Gerashchenko @Gerashchenko_en | 6:04 AM · Dec 9, 2022:
Ukrainian patriot. Advisor to the Minister of Internal Affairs of Ukraine. Founder of the Institute of the Future. Official enemy of Russian propaganda

Arman Shuraev, a public figure and professional journalist from Kazakhstan, replied to arrogant speech and threats of Russian ambassador in Kazakhstan, Borodavkin.

Russia is losing its influence among its neighbors and is rightly viewed as a threat.

📹: Arman Shuraev/YouTube
2:12 ( https://twitter.com/Gerashchenko_en/status/1601170999944568833 )

Russian dissent: a seed to be nurtured (Guardian)

Vladimir Putin’s military failure in Ukraine can also make him vulnerable to political opposition at home...

Putin suggests possibility of settlement to end war in Ukraine (Guardian)

Vladimir Putin mentioned a potential settlement to end his war in Ukraine on Friday while still claiming that his “special military operation” was going to plan. “The settlement process as a whole, yes, it will probably be difficult and will take some time. But one way or another, all participants in this process will have to agree with the realities that are taking shape on the ground,” the Russia president said during remarks at a press-conference in Bishkek, Kyrgyzstan...

Arrested Ukrainian priests 'mercilessly tortured' says archbishop (The Tablet)

The head of the Ukrainian Greek Catholic Church has accused Russian forces of torturing two Greek Catholic priests. Major Archbishop Sviatoslav Shevchuk said that Fr Ivan Levitsky and Fr Bohdan Geleta are being “mercilessly tortured” to extract confessions... “They are being forced to confess to crimes that they did not commit”...

The Kyiv Independent @KyivIndependent | 7:01 PM · Dec 9, 2022:

⚡️Russia detains 10,000 men of conscription age in Moscow.

Men were grabbed "right on the street and even at work," Russia's independent human rights group Memorial said on Dec. 9. The police took off their identification badges and did not identify themselves, the report read.

"They (detained men) are still kept in the military registration and enlistment office. Relatives of one of the detainees told our lawyers that they used force against him and forced him to undergo a medical examination. Now there is no contact with any men," Memorial said.
______________________________________

Sanho Tree @SanhoTree | 3:09 PM · Nov 8, 2022:
Fellow, Inst. for Policy Studies...

According to survivor Agafonov’s estimates, only 130 draftees out of the 570 survived the Ukrainian attack, which would make it the deadliest known incident involving conscripts since the start of the mobilisation drive at the end of September...

‘We were completely exposed’: Russian conscripts say hundreds killed in attack
Survivor tells of being abandoned to attack near Makiivka, as anger grows in Russia over death toll from war
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/nov/07/we-were-completely-exposed-russian...

9:12 PM · Dec 9, 2022
Another Russian convict recruited by Wagner mercenaries. They were told they’d be in the 2nd line of defense, but were lied to. There were 90 men in his platoon and no more than 20 remain alive.
2:20 ( https://twitter.com/SanhoTree/status/1601399308590678017 )

12:54 PM · Dec 1, 2022:
One company of Russian conscripts was abandoned without food or water for 7 days. They dropped their weapons in front of an officer and walked away to find the military prosecutor. It’s a complete 💩 show.
1:47 ( https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1598338524952018948 )

9:09 PM · Dec 2, 2022:
The cannon fodder are escaping!Will Putin dare to order another mobilization in the new year?😂
0:28 ( https://twitter.com/clashreport/status/1598787007446192148 )

7:55 PM · Dec 3, 2022:
Russia is so desperate that they’re conscripting Ukrainians in temporarily occupied Crimea to fight against their own country which is a war crime. Moreover, they are considered disposable and used for the deadliest roles.
1:05 ( https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1599125254420713472 )

1:56 PM · Dec 5, 2022:
Looks like Putin will be ordering covert snatch and grab operations to dragoon more cannon fodder for his quagmire.
https://twitter.com/ChrisO_wiki/status/1599814858383335424

8:57 AM · Dec 6, 2022:
They would be infinitely better off as POWs and that’s no exaggeration.

Quote Tweet
ChrisO_wiki @ChrisO_wiki | 3:47 AM · Dec 6, 2022:
https://twitter.com/ChrisO_wiki/status/1600049390520913920
1/ Mobilised Russians sent to Ukraine are relying on food packages sent by their families to prevent them dying of starvation, according to Siberia.Realities (a project of Radio Liberty). Relatives say the mobilised are eating unharvested corn picked from the ground...

etc... :/

>113 margd:
Hope young woman who asked Putin about reports of mobilized's hardships is okay... Woman next to her looks uncomfortable. (Putin's response reminds me of Trump's "I alone can fix it.")

Anton Gerashchenko @Gerashchenko_en | 10:03 AM · Dec 9, 2022:

Putin: "You can't trust anyone. You can only trust me".

And that's how they live. Zombies

0:33 ( https://twitter.com/Gerashchenko_en/status/1601231043637673984 )

Nobel Peace Prize: Russian laureate 'told to turn down award' (BBC)

The Russian co-winner of this year's Nobel Peace Prize has said Kremlin authorities told him to turn down the award. Yan Rachinsky, who heads Memorial, said he was told not to accept the prize because the two other co-laureates - a Ukrainian human rights organisation and jailed Belarusian rights defender - were deemed "inappropriate". Memorial is one of Russia's oldest civil rights groups, and was shut down by the government last year... Mr Rachinsky said his organisation had been advised to decline the award, but "naturally, we took no notice of this advice"...

How would Patriot missiles impact the Ukraine War? (7:20)
DW News | Dec 16, 2022

{Interview w Mike Martin, Sr Fellow War Studies College King's College London at 4:06}

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mL8K2aJ164M

Wagner Group: Burkina Faso anger over Russian mercenary link (BBC)

Burkina Faso's military authorities have summoned Ghana's ambassador over allegations they have hired Russian mercenaries to help fight jihadists. Wagner Group's presence in Burkina Faso was "distressing" said Ghana's President Nana Akufo-Addo.Burkina Faso has been struggling to contain Islamist militants who operate in many parts of the country. Neighbouring Mali faces a similar challenge and is already widely believed to be working with Wagner...

Xavi Ruiz @xruiztru | 9:06 AM · Dec 11, 2022:
International Relations and History 📚 • Comms Manager at @eurojewcong 📲 • Here I mostly post maps & graphs

Russia's security presence in Africa.
Map ( https://twitter.com/xruiztru/status/1601941521984811009/photo/1 )
-----------------------------------------------

David a l'Ametlla @desdelametlla
Mali’s map needs an update
https://amp.theguardian.com/world/2022/nov/01/russian-mercenaries-accused-of-civ...

Tito Lívio Barcellos @BarcellosTito
Geographer and Political Scientist. Post-Soviet geopolitics, Eurasia, Balkans and Global South. Also I make maps for books and articles.
I made a map about Russian arms exports to Africa months ago (in brazilian portuguese)
Map https://twitter.com/BarcellosTito/status/1601944220281241602/photo/1

serkan ates @srknates
Smaller than french presence. {margd--I was wondering what map of US presence would look like? France, China?}

cocaine ghost boat @Ian_likes_pesto
Isn’t there a Wagner presence in Mozambiqu

Radoslav Šoth @radosoth
The only country showing a Russian-made weapon right on its national flag is in Africa ... #Mocambique
__________________________________________

Elaine Shannon @ElaineShannonDC | 10:10 PM · Dec 16, 2022:
Author, Hunting LeRoux, to be Michael Mann film; Desperados, No Heroes, Spy Next Door, Nieman, ex-Time, Newsweek...

In piece on implications of Viktor Bout trade for Politico, I write about the Wagner Group’s point-of-spear role in Africa, US fears that Putin will use Bout to make thuggish Wagner presence smarter, more effective there. https://politico.com/news/magazine/2022/12/12/viktor-bout-merchant-of-death-0007...
...
Russian Official in Africa Wounded by Package Bomb, Moscow Says
The official, previously identified as a senior operative with the Wagner Group, was hospitalized in the capital of the Central African Republic, according to the Russian embassy.
https://www.nytimes.com/2022/12/16/world/africa/central-african-republic-russia-...
__________________________________________

Samuel Ramani (Oxford U) @SamRamani2 | 2:36 PM · Dec 9, 2022:

The US has linked its support for African Union participation in the G20 to an African seat in the UN Security Council

Likely symbolic but it counters Russia's expressions of support for an African UNSC presence when it engages with Nigeria and South Africa

>118 margd: contd.

Samuel Ramani (U Oxford) @SamRamani2 | 5:32 PM · Dec 16, 2022:

Russian media is trying to show the people of Central African Republic are on its side
Photo ( https://twitter.com/SamRamani2/status/1603880713937461248/photo/1 )

Or as John Lennon wrote:

A very merry Christmas and a happy New Year
Let's hope it's a good one without any fear.
War is over if you want it, war is over now.

https://activerain.com/blogsview/4810554/it-s-russian-orthodox-christmas--in-the...
____________________________________________________

Francis Scarr (U Oxford) @francis_scarr | 9:40 AM · Dec 17, 2022:
With @BBCMonitoring watching Russian state TV so you don't have to | Mastodon: http://newsie.social/@francisscarr | Radio stuff: https://soundcloud.com/francis-scarr

I thought we were long past the point when Russia could surprise us, but how wrong I was

Denis Maidanov* has just released a song honouring the Sarmat intercontinental ballistic missile, known in the West as "Satan II"

And ex-Roscosmos {Russian space agency} boss Rogozin helped him with the lyrics

0:56 ( https://twitter.com/francis_scarr/status/1604124392690163724 )

4:36 ( https://twitter.com/francis_scarr/status/1604136008701906944 )
--------------------------------------------------------------------------

* Denis Vasilievich Maidanov is a Russian singer, songwriter, actor, and politician. An accomplished artist known throughout Russia, Maidanov also serves in the Russian State Duma as a representative of the Odintsovo constituency of Odintsovsky District, Moscow Oblast since 2021. He is a member of United Russia. (Wikipedia)

Liveuamap @Liveuamap | 2:36 PM · Dec 17, 2022
liveuamap.com is platform that change the way you receive news. Latest news on the map. Contact us info@liveuamap.com. Tweets sometimes op-ed

Russian tycoon, former owner of biggest developer group Don-Stroi, Dmitriy Zelenov has died in France, after falling from the stairs https://russia.liveuamap.com/en/2022/17-december-russian-tycoon-former-owner-of-...

via @bazabazon
#Russia
Photo ( https://twitter.com/Liveuamap/status/1604198889019518976/photo/1 )

>120 margd: I thought we were long past the point when Russia could surprise us

I'm not in any way condoning militaristic songs, but surely it is no surprise when people at war produce "patriotic" songs which often praise the weapons which are being used? What immediately came to my mind were a couple of Irish republican "rebel" songs named after weapons, "My Little Armalite" and "The SAM Song", but many nations have examples of military songs which praise weapons, and a former South African president used to sing "Bring Me My Machine Gun". One of the most famous Russian militaristic songs is "Katyusha", which came to be associated with a fearsome weapon. A quick Google search for "songs about weapons" brings up dozens of popular songs from UK and USA, many of which were chart-topping hits. Rather than being surprised, we should perhaps see this as one of the dysfunctional trademarks of violent and militaristic societies (including our own) and work to promote a more nonviolent culture, including nonviolent songs, of which there are of course many, even if they are often overlooked.

On either side of the political fence
We share the same biology, regardless of ideology
Believe me when I say to you
I hope the Russians love their children too

_ "Russians" by Sting ( https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wHylQRVN2Qs )
_____________________________________________________

Francis Scarr (Oxford U) @francis_scarr | 10:36 AM · Dec 17, 2022:
With @BBCMonitoring watching Russian state TV so you don't have to...

It's Russia in 2022, so Ded Moroz (Russia's Santa Claus) has ditched his troika sleigh* for an armoured personnel carrier
0:29 ( https://twitter.com/francis_scarr/status/1604138523019382785 )

* The troika is a traditional Russian sleigh or carriage drawn by three horses harnessed abreast. It was developed around the 17th to 18th century as a method of quickly crossing Russia’s lengthy and hazardous roads. Harnessing three horses abreast increased stability and reduced strain on the animals. The troika was primarily used for mail coaches, but also transported passengers across the vast terrain. The sleigh would travel in stages, exchanging teams of animals at each post, to transport loads quickly. The troika introduced the first carriage drawn by multiple horses that did not require an equal number of drivers to guide the horses. ( https://www.macalester.edu/russian/about/resources/miscellany/troikasleigh/ )

Samuel Ramani @SamRamani2 | 6:12 PM · Dec 17, 2022

Russian media is warning that its Kinzhal hypersonic missiles could be aimed at London

This was a discussion topic on Olga Skabeeva's show this week. As retaliation for Britain supporting Ukrainian long-range strikes on Russia

Igor Korotchenko boasted that the Yars nuclear missile could overpower any defence system
Telegram in Ru ( https://t.me/igor_korotchenko/11871 )

Korotchenko also called for a ban on British diplomats travelling to Russia, as he warned that they were acting undercover as spies

A possible counter-measure that Russia could announce if visa bans become more expansive

Iuliia Mendel @IuliiaMendel | 1:21 PM · Dec 17, 2022:
Former Spokesperson to President @ZelenskyyUa. Author: The Fight of Our Lives http://shorturl.at/gsOW3 @PostOpinions contributor. proud Ukrainian

A senior Russian official told the C.I.A. director, William J. Burns, last month that Russia would not give up, no matter how many of its soldiers were killed or injured - NYT investigation
------------------------------------------------------------------

Lew Anno Yieretz Israel @anno1540 | 2:44 PM · Dec 17, 2022:
Putin is ready to accept the loss of 300,000 soldiers - NYT.

According to the publication, one of the NATO members warned the allies that Putin is ready to accept the death or wounding of up to 300,000 Russian servicemen, which is about three times more than his likely current losses.

Herr Dr (GDB) @HerrDr8 | 10:59 PM · Dec 17, 2022:
300k? Already there: 100K dead, ~200k wounded (assuming 2x)...~50k deserters/refuseniks. Total loss rate of about 1700 a day (dead, wounded, deserters).
Russian Losses per UKR Govt ( https://twitter.com/HerrDr8/status/1604325576856199169/photo/1 )
-----------------------------------------------------------------

Anton Gerashchenko @Gerashchenko_en | 7:59 AM · Dec 17, 2022:
"The skill to die in large quantities - this is where Russian strength is" - Russian actor, now state deputy Dmitriy Pevtsov.
1:06 ( https://twitter.com/Gerashchenko_en/status/1604098837483622400 )
___________________________________________________

Russian elites are cavalier with lives of ordinary Russians, but ordinary Russians not so much... A woman on BBC reported that there are five police at every subway stop in Russia--presumably to discourage protests, maybe to seize likely conscripts?

The Kyiv Independent @KyivIndependent | 2:33 PM · Dec 17, 2022:
⚡️ Ukraine’s intelligence: Over 1.2 million calls made to surrender hotline service.

Over 1.2 million calls have been made to Ukraine’s “I Want to Live” hotline, according to the Defense Ministry’s Intelligence Directorate’s representative Andriy Yusov on Dec. 17.

The “I Want to Live” hotline allows Russians to surrender themselves or their units to the Ukrainian army.

Chris McKee @Ragcha:
There aren’t a million Russian troops in Ukraine, so surely this comes from fewer troops calling repeatedly. I wonder how many have actually surrendered so far...

>122 John5918:

Must be secret code:

The United States Army Field Band's Soldiers' Chorus
3:03 ( https://www.facebook.com/watch?v=5605439526172004 )

Shockingly stupid

Russian Official Allegedly Opened Mail Bomb Thinking Son’s Head Was Inside

https://www.thedailybeast.com/russian-official-dmitry-syty-opened-mail-bomb-thin...

He had received a threat along those lines, so he opened a suspicious package, which was actually a bomb.

Another

Russian troops have turned to Wikipedia to find instructions on handling weapons and used 1960s-era maps in the country's invasion of Ukraine: NYT

https://www.businessinsider.com/russian-troops-ukraine-use-wikipedia-weapons-ins...

Nighttime drone attack hits Kyiv as Putin heads to Belarus
HANNA ARHIROVA and VASILISA STEPANENKO | Sun, December 18, 2022

...Russia launched 23 self-exploding drones over Kyiv while the city slept, but Ukrainian forces shot down 18 of them, the Kyiv city administration said on Telegram. No major casualties were reported from the attack, although the Ukrainian president’s office said the war killed at least three civilians and wounded 11 elsewhere in the country between Sunday and Monday.

The drone barrage caused emergency power outages in 11 central and eastern regions of the country, including the capital region, authorities said.

Monday was St. Nicholas Day, an occasion that marks the start of the Christmas holidays in Ukraine and is when children typically receive their first gifts hidden under pillows...

https://www.yahoo.com/news/authorities-kyiv-targeted-early-morning-044510588.htm...

Samuel Ramani @SamRamani2 | 11:14 AM · Dec 19, 2022:
DPhil/PhD Intl Relations @UniofOxford, Assoc Fellow @RUSI_org Bylines @ForeignPolicy, WaPo etc 3 forthcoming books HurstPublishers

The Wagner Group aligned Grey Zone Telegram channels says that Russia could amass troops in Volyn and Lviv to close the Poland-Ukraine border

This is what Russia is really threatening when it says that Poland will invade Ukraine

This Telegram post flatly expresses disbelief in Sergei Naryshkin's claims that Poland is invading Ukraine, which breaks with other pro-war channels, and highlights it as an effort to divert Ukrainian forces from Donbas
https://t.me/grey_zone/16254

So Insanity Claus and a Big Fat Elf meet to plan the New Year?
I assume to distract Kiev from eastern provinces, and to block NATO transfers to Ukraine?

MFA Russia 🇷🇺 @mfa_russia | 7:33 AM · Dec 20, 2022:
Russia government organization

💬 President #Putin: Belarus is not only our good neighbour that we have been working with through all the previous decades with due account of each other’s interests, but Belarus is also definitely our ally in the most direct sense of the word 🇷🇺🇧🇾

🔗 https://is.gd/zeqhkX

Photos Russia in Belarus and 8 others
https://twitter.com/mfa_russia/status/1605179599146590208/photo/1
https://twitter.com/mfa_russia/status/1605179599146590208/photo/2

Russian journalist receives award:

Dmitri @wartranslated | 7:16 AM · Dec 20, 2022:
Archiving war in Ukraine ... 🇪🇪 Estonian

What putin loves the most: while receivng an award, almost dropping to her knees, Margo Simonyan thanks putin for continuing to slay the cannibals (referring to his phrase 20 years ago), and all the other crimes he carried out.

1:42 ( https://twitter.com/mfa_russia/status/1605179599146590208/photo/2 )

UkraineWorld @ukraine_world | 10:25 AM · Dec 19, 2022:

Last year's opening of the Christmas market in Ukrainian Mariupol.
It is just so unbelievably sad..
1:30 ( https://twitter.com/ukraine_world/status/1604860368492314625 )

ETA CORRECTION (rubles, not dollars):
Michael McFaul McFaul | 7:40 PM · Dec 22, 2022:
Mr. Peskov, privet. I apologize for misreading that you had a $6 million watch when it was in fact only a 6 million ruble watch.

But even if you have money from your family to buy a 6 million ruble watch, is it prudent, as a Russian government official, to wear it in public?
----------------------------------------------------------------------

Michael McFaul McFaul | 8:43 AM · Dec 20, 2022:
Professor of Political Science, Director of Freeman Spogli Institute & Hoover Senior Fellow all at Stanford University. U.S. Ambassador to Russia, 2012-2014.

Putin's aide, Peskov, is wearing a $6 million watch! Who does that? & Why dont Russians get more pissed off about this? Sometimes, I wish there were more real communists in Russia, pushing for a class-based revolution against this corrupt ancien regime.

Quote Tweet
Maria Pevchikh @pevchikh | 8:35 AM · Dec 20, 2022:
Вот еще история, которая приводит меня в бешенство. Песков с микрофоном произносит тост, его фотографируют. На руке отчетливо виднеются часы за 6 млн. Зам министра обороны замечает это и заботливо прикрывает ему запястье манжетом. {Google translate: Here's another story that drives me crazy. Peskov with a microphone makes a toast, he is photographed. A watch for 6 million is clearly visible on his hand. The Deputy Minister of Defense notices this and carefully covers his wrist with a cuff.}

Photos
https://twitter.com/pevchikh/status/1605195195963916289/photo/1
https://twitter.com/pevchikh/status/1605195195963916289/photo/2
https://twitter.com/pevchikh/status/1605195195963916289/photo/3
https://twitter.com/pevchikh/status/1605195195963916289/photo/4

Russia Can Finally See That Putin’s ‘Days Are Numbered’ ENDGAME
Anna Nemtsova | Updated Dec. 18, 2022

...Putin is still backed by around 79 percent of Russians, according to recent polls, but that faith is weakening. Studies by Levada, an independent Russian think tank, show the number of Russians who believe their country is moving in the right direction has already fallen from 64 percent in October to 61 percent in November...

https://www.thedailybeast.com/russia-can-finally-see-that-putins-days-are-number...

"Khazarian Mafia" conspiracy theory has legs: not only a basis for Russian invasion of Ukraine, it appears in death threat to MD in rural Ontario...

An Antisemitic Conspiracy Theory is Being Shared on Telegram to Justify Russia’s Invasion of Ukraine
Lea Gerster | 5th May 2022

...the Khazars, a semi-nomadic Turkic people who established a major empire (Khazaria) between Eastern Europe and Western Asia in the Middle Ages...the Khazar people, or at least their elites, converted to Judaism en masse during the 8th century. The lack of reliable, contemporary source research on the Khazars make it difficult to determine how true this claim is....

As Khazaria included large parts of contemporary Ukraine, including Russian-occupied Crimea, antisemitic conspiracy theories about the Khazar people have been applied to discussion of the ongoing Russia-Ukraine war in QAnon, Sovereigntist, and right-wing extremist Telegram channels.

One post making its way through such channels, for example, claims that the “Khazarian Mafia are the people we call Ukrainian Nazis nowadays” ... The post also claims that the Russians knew the current war was the continuation of a conflict in the mid-8th century, when the Khazars tried to subjugate Russian tribes who rejected the Khazars’ love of drinking (preferably Russian) blood. It goes on to state that the Khazars were manipulating human DNA, possessed by demons, and destroyed the DNA of opposing tribes with biological weapons. The post also claims that once Russian invaders threaten to reveal proof of the Khazarian “demons”, Ukrainian “Khazars” will claim that they are being massacred to incite a global war against Russia...

Claims such as these draw on a variety of antisemitic stereotypes, including the blood libel myth and the age-old trope of Jewish plots against other nations, to allege that Ukraine is being governed by “fake” Jews.

https://www.isdglobal.org/digital_dispatches/an-antisemitic-conspiracy-theory-is...

In 2003 George Bush "preemptive" strike against Iraq in which three of my five chidren served, (I opposed) was met with protests from all over the world some say the most ever. I'm wondering where are the John and Yokos, the Desmond Tutus, the Berigan bros, and the anti-war left gone, certainly alot of those oldtime boomers are still around. They are in power now and press for relentless escalation. Appoaching 100,000,000 enough to repave every road in America and a new school in every school district. This "aid" mostly military given to a guy who shows up here dressed like a UPS driver. Whose previous job was doing lewd comic routines. Socialists now control Capitol Hill and are now the war hawks, with calls to "smoke out Putin". These simplistic moral binaries were the ones demanding total obeisance to the manufactured covid regime have now transfered to running a proxy war against Russia. Socialists are now nationalists turning a blindeye to the unsavory aspects of the Ukranian regime. Their no war signs have been updated to no fly Zone signs (a sure ticket to wwlll). Whats really happening is they are allowing America to wage war with a clean conscience, to the last Ukranian, not our boys (and girls) thus removing the domestic sting. The counter culture is now the culture but it comes at a price, They are in charge of the Pentagon and as every military guy I know understands the operation of the Pentagon has always meant war....JMJ....

>136 brone: I'm wondering where are the John and Yokos, the Desmond Tutus, the Berigan bros, and the anti-war left gone

You don't see any difference between invading a foreign nation and helping a sovereign nation fight off an invader?

Appoaching 100,000,000 enough to repave every road in America and a new school in every school district.

4.17 million statute miles of highway and "Paving a two-lane (24'-wide) asphalt road costs $70 to $170 per linear foot or $370,000 to $900,000 per mile." or "a good rule of thumb is that every mile of road costs at least one million dollars to repave", giving us 10^6 * 10^6, or on the magnitude of a trillion dollars to repave just the highways. You are off by about 10,000.

This "aid" mostly military given to a guy who shows up here dressed like a UPS driver. Whose previous job was doing lewd comic routines.

So, US, we are part of NATO, but we're not going to help you as long as you're led by someone who ran a reality show. Or played in a movie called Bedtime for Bonzo.

the ones demanding total obeisance to the manufactured covid regime

It's weird how the people who object to the left-right binary the most seem to be the people who stereotypically embody the right. (I'm sure there's people on the left who do the same, but I haven't run into them.) That is a right-wing talking point right out of the litany, and its absurd falsehood paints you as right in line with the right wing.

We've been through this before....no one has forced anyone to get a covid shot. Not getting one might have meant that for some time you weren't allowed inside a grocery store or later on a sports stadium. In the case of the first you could call or use an app, drive in and pick up and in the second you could watch it on TV. The point of all that was (in most cases) your stupidity not spreading the virus to someone else.

Socialists on Capitol Hill? I wonder who the fuck they are? I already know because I've heard it plenty. Kamala Harris and Joseph Biden. I wonder how long and attentively Mr. Brone has watched either one of these politicians in action. In Biden's case you had decades. This guy is a socialist? No---I would call him a center right democrat. Sorry but he's not Che Guevara by any stretch. That's just who the Tucker Carlson's and Trump's and other right wing ideologues like Bone would like him to be. First they can't get out of their way claiming he has dementia....next he becomes a socialist. What is it really with you guys on the right? These are just your way Brone of trying to demean and/or insult him....but there is no real reality backing up this dumbass socialist claim of yours. FWIW I would like some real say Scandinavia style socialism in this country of ours. I've given up some time ago on that ever happening.

Maybe Brone since you say you didn't believe in this Iraq invasion you should have talked to your three kids who went to fight there......instead of hoping that protests would have saved you the trouble. History might tell you that protests didn't save very many at all from being drafted and sent to Vietnam. Don't want to fight? There was the Muhammed Ali method of refusing and going to prison. There was the cross the border to Canada method of avoiding service.

My own remembrance of the 2003 Iraq invasion was that the large majority of the American population was in favor. Particularly those on the right side of the political spectrum. A lot of this remembrance is anecdotal on my part. Going to work then at a US postal plant in upstate NY. In very large part these people were salivating for somebody's blood. Good people though.....salt of the earth and union members.

There was a survey in Ukraine, and it turned out that 60% want to celebrate on the 25th. Many orthodox countries do celebrate on the 25th, like Greece, for example. I think it would be good to switch to the 25th for Ukraine.
Map ( https://twitter.com/VolodyaTretyak/status/1607303882925039616/photo/1 )

- Volodymyr Tretyak 🇺🇦 @VolodyaTretyak | 4:14 AM · Dec 26, 2022
Translating different things related to the war from Ukrainian/Russian | Sometimes my thoughts | author at @wartranslated | #NAFO

One of the richest deputies of Russia died in India
This was reported by the NDTV. According to them, Antov died after falling from the third floor of the hotel on December 25.
Antov was twice included in the Forbes list in 2019. His fortune was estimated at $150 million.

Photo ( https://twitter.com/nexta_tv/status/1607425817595764738/photo/1 )

- NEXTA @nexta_tv | 12:19 PM · Dec 26, 2022

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CARTOON: https://twitter.com/Timmi_Allen/status/1607438520662069248/photo/1

Phosphorus bombs are outlawed by the Geneva Convention but they rained on Ukraine this Christmas.
Republicans who support Russians are war criminals.

0:19 ( https://twitter.com/duty2warn/status/1607362028615655428 )
From Mousa Zidane

- Duty To Warn 🔉 @duty2warn | 8:05 AM · Dec 26, 2022

In Russia, an elderly woman was kicked out (literally) from the bus for criticising the war Russia wages against Ukraine.
1:02 ( https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1607473776173752321 )

- Dmitri @wartranslated | 3:29 PM · Dec 26, 2022
In Russia, an elderly woman was kicked out (literally) from the bus for criticising the war Russia wages against Ukraine.

The revenge of history in Ukraine: year of war has shaken up world order (Guardian)

A shared sense of national history is proving to be a crucial weapon, spurring on Ukraine resistance and Russian soldiers... It’s a country’s taught collective memory, its shared sense of its own history, that are the decisive instruments for mobilisation, and are as important on the battlefield as weaponry. Few conflicts have been so shaped by the chief actors’ sense of their own national story as the Ukrainian war that began in February. It is the competing grand narratives of the past, not just in Russia and Ukraine, but in Germany, France, Poland, the Baltics, the UK, the US, and even the global south, that make this war so hard to resolve. Indeed, sometimes this war feels less like the end of history and more like the revenge of history... “Russian forces have been smashing their way through Ukraine spurred in large part by historical fiction... But history also propels the fierce Ukrainian resistance. Ukrainians, too, harbour a particular understanding of the past that motivates them to fight. In many ways, this war is the collision of two incompatible historical narratives”...

Michael McFaul (Stanford, frmr ambassador to Ru) McFaul | 4:14 AM · Dec 27, 2022:
Not good.
(Discussion at https://twitter.com/McFaul/status/1607666217745276928 )

Quote Tweet
FLASH @Flash_news_ua | 4:05 AM · Dec 27, 2022:
Prompt information about #War_in_Ukraine without fake news 24/7

⚡️Russia has transferred part of the tank army to Belarus, - British intelligence reports.

According to British intelligence, part of the Russian 1st Guards Tank Army is likely to be among the Russian forces that were recently transferred to Belarus.
Show this thread

Text ( https://twitter.com/Flash_news_ua/status/1607664023268622341/photo/1 )
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Mark Hazard 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁷󠁬󠁳󠁿 🇬🇧 🇺🇦 🇪🇺 🇺🇳 @MarkHazard2020
Deploying more armour in a wooded area against an enemy more proficient in anti-tank warfare than they were at the start of this war ...
Terrain map of Belarus Ukraine border https://twitter.com/MarkHazard2020/status/1607667773697818625/photo/1

Jakob Tarras Ericsson @JakobTarras
Also recall a large chunk of the Northern border is swampland, so only a few entrypoints they could enter without being bogged down (Literally!), and these entrypoints are being the same routes they took last time.

>140 margd: None of the sources on this are reliable, but here's more what's published on the situation.

The Russian outlet Zebra-TV reported that Antov’s lifeless body was found in front of his hotel in the eastern Indian state of Odisha on Saturday. Antov, a lawmaker from Russia’s Vladimir region and the founder and vice president of the hugely successful Vladimir Standard meat company, had been vacationing in India with a group of tourists when local police say he apparently fell out the window.

Over the summer, Antov condemned Russia’s airstrikes on Ukraine in a scathing statement posted to social media.

His fatal fall happened two days after the death of his friend in their hotel. Vladimir Bydanov's death has been described as a heart attack.

The bizarre deaths come just a few days after Alexander Buzakov, the director general of Russia’s Admiralty Shipyards, died “suddenly and tragically” at the age of 66. His cause of death remains unclear.

Buzakov appears to have been in support of the marine weaponry used to murder Ukrainians.

https://www.thedailybeast.com/pavel-antov-russian-lawmaker-who-slammed-putins-wa... +

Jack Murphy is a name I haven't seen in a while, but in my book, his byline is a good one. It does not surprise me in the least that this story was kept out of the press (see note on publication at end).

THE CIA IS USING A EUROPEAN NATO ALLY’S SPY SERVICE TO CONDUCT A COVERT SABOTAGE CAMPAIGN INSIDE RUSSIA UNDER THE AGENCY’S DIRECTION, ACCORDING TO FORMER U.S. INTELLIGENCE AND MILITARY OFFICIALS.
DECEMBER 24, 2022 BY JACK MURPHY
https://jackmurphywrites.com/169/the-cias-sabotage-campaign-inside-russia/

⚡️Kremlin spokesman: Peace possible only if Ukraine agrees to Russia's annexation of its regions.

Putin's spokesman Dmitry Peskov said that any peace plan should “take into account” Russia’s illegal “annexation” of Ukraine’s Zaporizhzhia, Donetsk, Luhansk, and Kherson oblasts.

- The Kyiv Independent @KyivIndependent | 8:18 AM · Dec 28, 2022

Think the war in Ukraine is the world’s deadliest conflict? Think again (Guardian)

A war is raging that has cost more than an estimated 600,000 lives. Its victims have borne witness to shocking human rights abuses and, tragically, civilians have been deliberately targeted. Tens of thousands of women have been raped. It has lasted two years and is happening today, yet the chances are you don’t even know where it is. Though it is far deadlier than the war in Ukraine, the western media have mostly ignored it. On 4 November 2020, when Ethiopia’s prime minister, Abiy Ahmed, a Nobel Peace prize winner, announced a military offensive in the disputed territory of Tigray, it was difficult to imagine how catastrophic it would become...

Not in any way intended to downplay the horror of the war in Ukraine, but I would note that line, "the western media have mostly ignored it".

Prigozhin ally Alexander Ivanov confirms that Russia redeployed many fighters from Central African Republic to Ukraine

These fighters are concentrated in Bakhmut under the Wagner Group's purview but some also returned to Russia and were conscripted

- Samuel Ramani (Oxford U) @SamRamani2 | 6:03 PM · Dec 28, 2022

Molly Jong-Fast @MollyJongFast | 2:13 PM · Mar 5, 2022:
@vanityfair special correspondent

here’s John Bolton saying that Trump was planning to leave NATO in his second term

1:09 ( https://twitter.com/MollyJongFast/status/1500187881431785474 )
From Ron Filipkowski 🇺🇦

>150 margd: I'm not sure I find John Bolton a credible source, at least not in what Trump would have done.

>151 prosfilaes: Trump repeatedly indicated while he was POTUS that he would withdraw the US from NATO. He's not consistent in much other than his praise of his "wonderful" Putin, his arrogance, and his tendency for outrageous lying; however, with how much he said, that moved seemed likely to occur given enough time under his control.

New Year addresses from Russia and Ukraine:

Pres. Putin:
7:58 ( https://www.c-span.org/video/?525089-1/russian-president-vladimir-putin-delivers... )

"soldiers" behind Putin ( https://twitter.com/oculusfiles/status/1609191430790029313 )

0:07 Putin coughing ( https://twitter.com/francis_scarr/status/1609235399628431362 )

Comments on cough:
(Assume this is the best take) ...the people behind him are all actors, so they could do unlimited retakes.
...Whatever neurological issue he has, it’s advancing. What he’s doing is trying to “jolt” his muscles back under control. This is the first time I’ve seen him cough to do it, so it’s starting to affect his vocal chords and likely respiratory system.
It’s also curious they cropped his hands out of the video frame. I guarantee there’s a lot of muscle contraction making them disfigured...I noticed him holding the table in a video several months ago. I’ve been watching the sporadic videos he’s allowed be released ever since because so much about his movements remind me of my friend’s ex husband who has huntingtons...
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Pres. Zelensky:
2:20 ( https://twitter.com/Gerashchenko_en/status/1609326009249140739 )