Russia: international moves, West responses, Putin's revenge & future...Ukraine 10

Samuel Ramani @SamRamani2 | 12:05 PM · Oct 9, 2022:
https://twitter.com/SamRamani2/status/1579140992493826048

Alexander Lukashenko gives Vladimir Putin a tractor for his 70th birthday
Photo ( https://twitter.com/SamRamani2/status/1579140992493826048/photo/1 )

The Minsk Tractor Works is the flagship of Belarusian industry, so it has symbolism that also hearkens back to Soviet traditions

Putin has regularly appeared in public in tractors, including with friendly leaders like Gerhard Schroder
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Dmitri @wartranslated | 2:29 PM · Oct 9, 2022:
https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1579177262959640577

the Russians are now hanging onto fact that putin called it an "attack on critical civilian infrastructure" which could potentially indicate a requirement for a nuclear response
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max seddon @maxseddon | 2:30 PM · Oct 9, 2022:
The Kremlin says it is “completely incorrect” to suggest that Russia could retaliate for the Crimea bridge attack by using nuclear weapons on Ukraine.

{Google translate}
RIA News
✔
Peskov* called RIA Novosti a "completely incorrect formulation of the question" of the reasoning whether the terrorist attack on the Crimean bridge falls under the possibility of using the nuclear doctrine
https://t.me/rian_ru/181043
460.3Kviews
Oct 9 at 14:21

*Dmitry Peskov, Press Secretary of the President of the Russian Federation
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The Kyiv Independent @KyivIndependent | 5:17 PM · Oct 9, 2022:
⚡️Putin to hold security council meeting on Oct. 10 after calling Crimean Bridge blast 'terrorism'.

When asked if this means Russia could respond by using nuclear weapons, Putin's spokesman Dmitry Peskov said that the question had been asked in an incorrect way.

Oleksiy Sorokin @mrsorokaa | 2:33 AM · Oct 10, 2022:
Journalist, editor, manager 🇺🇦🇨🇦| @UofT 2018 | ex-Kyiv Post | now @kyivindependent

Kyiv is bombarded nonstop. All over town. The city is hit in multiple areas.
This is very scary.

This is Putin’s revenge for Ukraine still existing, for Ukrainians fighting back.

Russia bombards civilian infrastructure around the entire country. Tens of rockets. Russians are cowards.

Downtown Kyiv. I have no words.
0:23 ( https://twitter.com/mrsorokaa/status/1579360327413960707 )

Russia bombards Ukraine, hitting parks, pedestrian crossings, museums. They attempt to impose fear.
Ukrainians take cover, sing in the metro. Russia can’t win.
0:21 ( https://twitter.com/mrsorokaa/status/1579394265373106176 )
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Ash @astngz | 2:52 AM · Oct 10, 2022:
This is Surovkin’s style, and Putin put him in charge fully aware of that.
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Illia Ponomarenko 🇺🇦 @IAPonomarenko | 3:36 AM · Oct 10, 2022:
Defense reporter with @KyivIndependent.

They are not even trying to make this look like they’re hitting military facilities.
Russians are just randomly firing missiles upon downtown Kyiv, which makes zero sense - monuments, touristic sights, avenues.

At least fours strikes upon downtown Kyiv.
Putin’s frantic anger.

The Bridge of Glass in the very heart of Kyiv
0:26 ( https://twitter.com/IAPonomarenko/status/1579368581862940672 )
The bridge is fine!
0:28 ( https://twitter.com/IAPonomarenko/status/1579368581862940672 )
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Lesia Vasylenko @lesiavasylenko | 1:55 AM · Oct 10, 2022:
Ukrainian MP, @goloszmin, working mom of 3 lovely humans, lover of freedom, travel and all things green

Just minutes from my home. Just 20 minutes ago. What is #Russia trying to hit? The national university? The park? Or the playground?

Photo ( https://twitter.com/lesiavasylenko/status/1579349792207302658/photo/1 )
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Matthew Luxmoore @mjluxmoore | 2:27 AM · Oct 10, 2022:
WSJ reporter currently in Ukraine. Alum @DCRES_Harvard.

Shevchenko Park in central Kyiv now. Probably the city’s busiest park, usually packed with people and street musicians

0:10 ( https://twitter.com/mjluxmoore/status/1579357969577545729 )

Lviv tonight
0:31 ( https://twitter.com/mjluxmoore/status/1579194001546018816 )
Ukrainian songs were interspersed tonight with chants of “Death to Enemies!” and “Putin is a Dick!”
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Matti Maasikas @MattiMaasikas | 1:49 AM · Oct 10, 2022:
Ambassador of the European Union to Ukraine, Head of @EUDelegationUA. Previously European affairs in @MFAestonia.

Kyiv city centre right now.
Photo ( https://twitter.com/MattiMaasikas/status/1579348274120577025/photo/1 )
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Zelensky: “I beg you: do not leave shelters. Take care of yourself and your loved ones. Let's hold on and be strong.”

-Oliver Carroll @olliecarroll | 2:48 AM · Oct 10, 2022:
Foreign Correspondent for TheEconomist
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Anton Gerashchenko @Gerashchenko_en | 3:11 AM · Oct 10, 2022:
Ukrainian patriot. Advisor to the Minister of Internal Affairs of Ukraine. Founder of the Institute of the Future. Official enemy of Russian propaganda

GIVE US AIR DEFENSE AND AVIATION TO DESTROY ROCKETS AND DRONES!

Samuel Ramani @SamRamani2 | 7:04 PM · Oct 9, 2022:
DPhil/PhD Intl Relations @UniofOxford, Assoc Fellow @RUSI_org, Bylines @ForeignPolicy, WaPo etc 3 forthcoming books HurstPublishers

Dmitry Kiselyov* says that the U.S. will nuke Ukraine, blame Russia and then fire missiles on Russian troops in Ukraine
...
{google translate}
Markov logic **
Dmitry Kiselev in the Vesti Nedelya program supported my version that the United States plans to strike with tactical nuclear weapons on Ukraine and blame Russia for this. And inflict missile strikes on the troops of the Russian army on the territory of the former Ukraine, as if in response. Yes. This is a very likely scenario.
https://t.me/logikamarkova/3760
14.1K viewsedited
Oct 9 at 17:08

* Dmitry Konstantinovich Kiselyov, is a Russian television presenter, news executive and propagandist. In 2013, Kiselyov was appointed by Russian President Vladimir Putin to head Rossiya Segodnya, a Russian state-controlled media group. Wikipedia

** former Putin advisor Sergei Markov

Julia Davis @JuliaDavisNews | 10:59 PM · Oct 9, 2022:
Columnist @TheDailyBeast, creator of the Russian Media Monitor, sanctioned by Russia, member of @TheEmmys. I watch Russian state TV, so you don't have to.

I keep seeing this footage all over Russian state TV. They show how they keep Ukrainian POWs topless and make them walk around crouched forward. Interrogating them is none other than the so-called "war correspondent" Alexander Sladkov, whom you might remember from other videos.
Photos at https://twitter.com/JuliaDavisNews/status/1579305539829661696
----------------------------------------------------

...The four Geneva Conventions set out how soldiers and civilians should be treated in war. The Third Geneva Convention of 1949, which explains how prisoners of war should be treated, does not explicitly mention photography or film. However it does say, in Article 13, that “prisoners of war must at all times be protected, particularly against acts of violence or intimidation and against insults and public curiosity”. These are the words generally considered relevant to photographs.

In its commentary on Article 13, the International Committee of the Red Cross says that it covers “the disclosure of photographic and video images, recordings of interrogations or private conversations or personal correspondence or any other private data, irrespective of which public communication channel is used, including the internet because such disclosure could still be humiliating and jeopardize the safety of the prisoners’ families and of the prisoners themselves once they are released”.

The publication or sharing of images of prisoners of war might not always have this effect, however. For instance, the ICRC commentary also says that “photographic and other visual evidence has been used to prosecute war crimes, promote accountability and raise public awareness of abuses, contributing to greater respect for the Geneva Conventions”.

It therefore recommends that images that identify prisoners of war, or show them in humiliating or degrading situations, are not published unless there is a “compelling public interest” in doing so. This might include when a prisoner is very senior, is wanted by justice, or has gone missing, or in order to bring abuse to public attention. It also says that the same rules apply to deceased prisoners of war.
Who is bound by the law?

The Geneva Convention only applies to those involved in the conflict...

https://fullfact.org/law/prisoners-war-geneva-convention-photographs/

Samuel Ramani @SamRamani2 | 9:38 PM · Oct 9, 2022
DPhil/PhD Intl Relations @UniofOxford, Assoc Fellow @RUSI_org, Bylines @ForeignPolicy, WaPo etc 3 forthcoming books HurstPublishers

This video of Chechen forces headed for Ukraine is circulating on Russian propaganda channels

0:10 ( https://twitter.com/SamRamani2/status/1579285209627131904 )

Julia Davis (The Daily Beast) @JuliaDavisNews | 9:14 PM · Oct 9, 2022:

Genocidal scheming on Russian state TV: Andrey Sidorov, Deputy Dean of world politics at the MSU {Moscow State U} urges Russia not to miss the right moment to cause a massive refugee crisis in Europe, exacerbating economic and political tensions by causing a massive influx of Ukrainian refugees.
1:28 ( https://twitter.com/JuliaDavisNews/status/1579279261592354817 )

Russian state TV: Zakhar Prilepin—who spends a lot of time on the frontlines & previously boasted of "killing many" in Ukraine—admits that Ukrainians aren't actually welcoming Russian forces. He says that territories Russia wants should be {de?} occupied & people forcibly "reeducated."
0:41 ( https://twitter.com/JuliaDavisNews/status/1579292010288406530 )

More genocidal brainstorming in the Russian media: Expert says that destroying all bridges in Ukraine is not feasible. He proposes demolishing the energy infrastructure in time for winter, causing a massive humanitarian crisis. He argues that China and India would not care.
2:06 ( https://twitter.com/JuliaDavisNews/status/1579258480585629696 )

Samuel Ramani @SamRamani2 | 6:50 AM · Oct 10, 2022:

BREAKING: A Russian missile strike hits the building that houses the German consulate in Kyiv

This is entirely symbolic, as the German consulate has not functioned since February

Its a warning shot to EU diplomats, which follows months of veiled and real threats from Russian lawmakers and media outlets against Western officials visiting Kyiv
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Illia Ponomarenko 🇺🇦 @IAPonomarenko | 7:03 AM · Oct 10, 2022:

Just one Russian Kh-101 missile costs $13 million
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Seth Baum @SethBaum | 7:51 AM · Oct 9, 2022
https://twitter.com/SethBaum/status/1579077137948196864\
Executive Director @GCRInstitute. Affiliate @CSERCambridge. Research on catastrophic risk, security, ethics, astrobiology.

If Ukraine continues to retake territory, how can we dissuade Russia from escalating to nuclear?

Prior thread discussed international condemnation. {the value of international condemnation of any nuclear attack, which strikes me as a clear win in that it may help & can’t hurt}

That’s a stick. Here, a quick attempt at listing out a wider range of carrots & sticks

...helpful if Western policy community also spent time thinking about a more likely end game in which Russia continues to cede ground without going nuclear.

...STICK: Threats of retaliation, which could include military force, maybe even more sanctions, etc. The challenge is to make severe enough to deter without committing to Armageddon if deterrence fails. Hopefully US/NATO/etc is getting the balance right

...CARROT: A path for Russia to rejoin the international community as a member in good standing.

...CARROT: Something along the lines of immunity from war crimes prosecution. International law experts can articulate this more precisely than I. What I have in mind is something akin to the “peace vs. justice” dilemma. If avoiding nuclear war means sacrificing justice, so be it.

...CARROT: A golden parachute for Putin, & possibly other Russian elites, probably somewhere in exile. This is if their domestic support further erodes, in particular if they feel their lives may be in danger.

...Though the internal power struggle among factions of the Russian elite seems oddly comforting. If Putin can just play them against each other (totally plausible), perhaps he can survive without resorting to nukes.

Out of all the carrots/sticks, the threat of retaliation stands out as riskiest (could induce more escalation) but possibly most effective. It’s also getting plenty of policy attention. All of the others could probably benefit from more attention & effort...

Nicu Popescu @nicupopescu | 4:46 AM · Oct 10, 2022:
Deputy Prime-Minister and Minister of Foreign Affairs and European Integration of Moldova

Three cruise missiles launched on Ukraine this morning from Russian ships in the Black Sea crossed Moldova's airspace.

I instructed that Russia's ambassador be summoned to provide an explanation.
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Recall: >7 margd: (Russian missiles hit bldg that houses German Embassy, now vacated, in Kiev.)
Also, Germany promised Moldova aid (below).
I read, too that Ru had not sent its best troops to Moldovan breakaway province on Ukraine's border.

Samuel Ramani @SamRamani2 | 6:14 AM · Oct 1, 2022:
DPhil/PhD Intl Relations @UniofOxford, Assoc Fellow @RUSI_org, Bylines @ForeignPolicy, WaPo etc 3 forthcoming books HurstPublishers

BREAKING: Germany promises Moldova military aid

German Defence Minister Christine Lambrecht's strategy to help Moldova counter Russian aggression has 2 dimensions

The first is the provision of drones, the second is helping Moldova destroy and secure Soviet-era munitions

Julia Ioffe @juliaioffe | 3:39 AM · Oct 10, 2022:
Founding Partner and Washington Correspondent, @PuckNews.

Electricity and water are going out all over Ukraine, the the result of massive Russian air strikes all over the country. The commander behind it is the man who flattened Aleppo and gassed Ghouta.
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Euromaidan Press @EuromaidanPress | 4:05 AM · Oct 10, 2022:
News and views from Ukraine.

President Zelenskyy: "The morning is difficult. We are dealing with terrorists. Dozens of missiles, Iranian Shahed drones. They have two targets." 1/X

Zelenskyy: "Russian targets are energy facilities, all across the country. Kyiv Oblast and Khmelnytskyi Oblast, Lviv and Dnipro, Vinnytsia, Ivano-Frankivsk Oblast, Zaporizhzhia, Sumy Oblast, Kharkiv Oblast, Zhytomyr Oblast, Kirovohrad Oblast, the south." 2/X

Zelenskyy: "They (Russians, - Ed.) want panic and chaos, they want to destroy our energy system. They are hopeless." 3/X

Zelenskyy: "The second Russia's target is people. Such a time and such targets were specially chosen to cause as much damage as possible." 4/X

Zelenskyy: "Stay in shelters today. Always follow the safety rules. And always remember: Ukraine was before this enemy appeared, Ukraine will be after him." X/X

https://t.me/V_Zelenskiy_official/3583

Volodymyr Yermolenko @yermolenko_v | 7:29 AM · Oct 10, 2022:

Putin openly admits he ordered these missile strikes, he admits he ordered war crimes. Massive missile strikes against Ukrainian cities, killing civilians and destroying civilian infrastructure. Take this statement to The Hague as an evidence, one day Pu will be taken there

Anton Gerashchenko @Gerashchenko_en | 7:58 AM · Oct 10, 2022:
Ukrainian patriot. Advisor to the Minister of Internal Affairs of Ukraine. Founder of the Institute of the Future. Official enemy of Russian propaganda

Putin: strikes on Ukrainian territory today were carried out with high-precision weapons against the Ukrainian energy and communication facilities.

Is a children's playground energy infrastructure?

0:41 ( https://twitter.com/Gerashchenko_en/status/1579441180336541696 )

Samuel Ramani @SamRamani2 | 10:04 AM · Oct 10, 2022:

BREAKING: Germany will deliver the first of 4 IRIS-T SLM air defence systems* to Ukraine "within days"

Germany is stating that the attacks on civilians in Kyiv is motivating these arms transfers

Ukrainian officials have stepped up their calls for air defence systems in recent days, as Russian Telegram channels and lawmakers warned of imminent attacks on infrastructure...

* The IRIS-T is a German-led program to develop a short to medium range infrared homing air-to-air missile to replace the AIM-9 Sidewinder found in some NATO member countries. Any aircraft capable of firing the Sidewinder is also capable of launching the IRIS-T. Wikipedia

Ukraine War Live Updates: "Biden Condemns Russian 'Brutality'"
BY LAUREN GIELLA AND MEGHAN ROOS ON 10/10/22 AT 9:42 AM EDT
https://www.newsweek.com/ukraine-war-live-updates-1750358

Today's "Statement by President Biden on Russia’s Missile Strikes"
https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/statements-releases/2022/10/10/statemen...

These attacks only further reinforce our commitment to stand with the people of Ukraine for as long as it takes. Alongside our allies and partners, we will continue to impose costs on Russia for its aggression, hold Putin and Russia accountable for its atrocities and war crimes, and provide the support necessary for Ukrainian forces to defend their country and their freedom.

We again call on Russia to end this unprovoked aggression immediately and remove its troops from Ukraine.

Francis Scarr @francis_scarr | 10:57 AM · Oct 10, 2022:
With @BBCMonitoring watching Russian state TV so you don't have to

Just when you thought Russian state TV couldn't go any lower, military pundit Alexander Artamonov comes along while this morning's strikes were still continuing all across Ukraine, and brands the country a "psychiatrically sick society"

0:35 ( https://twitter.com/francis_scarr/status/1579486304546750466 )

In the aftermath of this rather infamous recent interview... https://www.jeffsachs.org/interviewsandmedia/wc5p5k2cbndm2xaerfghe2ncndj849

...another important interview with Jeffrey Sachs on the war. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=g57ViSqmRFM

Just been told one of the victims of today’s bombings here in Kyiv was a young female paediatric haematologist, hit as she drove home from her hospital night shift. She has a 5 year old child. She cared for children with cancer. And Putin just killed her.

-Rachel Clarke @doctor_oxford | 12:52 PM · Oct 10, 2022:
Palliative care doctor 👩🏻‍⚕️ Writer 📚 NHS 💙 She/her 🌈 Rep: @AitkenAlexander
📝 Pub: @LittleBrownUK 🩺 Books: Your Life in My Hands, Dear Life, Breathtaking

Putin's targeting of civilian infrastructure is expensive, unrelated to military objectives, only prompted greater Ukrainian hate/resolve--but he is probably playing to a domestic audience in Russia. Buying time.

‘Someone will fall victim’: insiders reveal elite anguish as Russia’s war falters
Pjotr Sauer and Andrew Roth | 7 Oct 2022

...Two of Vladimir Putin’s most notorious lieutenants, {Wagner founder Yevgeny Prigozhin} and the Chechen leader Ramzan Kadyrov, have openly declared war against the defence minister, Putin loyalist Sergei Shoigu, and his top generals following a series of disastrous defeats that have left Russia’s army in retreat.

...{defence minister, Putin loyalist Sergei Shoigu} native of Tuva had always been an unenthusiastic supporter of the 2014 war in the Donbas but was overruled by a cadre of hawkish Kremlin advisers including Nikolai Patrushev.... He also was not in favour of the more recent “annexations” of occupied Ukrainian territory, he added.

But Putin knows he can trust Shoigu and sacking him would be deeply embarrassing...

Putin for years has pitted his underlings against one another in order to prevent them from uniting against him.

“I cannot imagine that the FSB would allow either Prigozhin or Kadyrov to acquire any political power,” said Yevgenia Albats, a Russian investigative journalist and editor of the New Times. “It’s impossible.”...her contacts among Russian officials estimated that at least 70% of top officials – people she referred to as the nomenklatura – were opposed to the war.

Another well-connected journalist who works on state television said that “intense dread” has taken hold of much of the political elite. “The higher you go, the more desperation you feel. There is general understanding now that the war can’t be won.”

for now, the opposition to the war that has taken hold among senior officials was unlikely to threaten Putin himself.

...{Dmitry Oreshkin, a veteran Russian political scientist} “This whole system is built around a vozdh, a leader. If you get rid of Putin you have to be able to deliver quick results, but everyone knows that is not possible right now.”

...On the other extreme, Kadyrov and Prigozhin’s macho personas appear to have filtered into the Kremlin...

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/oct/07/intense-dread-and-infighting-among...

Konstantin Dolgov, former Russian commissioner for human rights {!}, claims that Ukraine's plumbing and sewer systems are "working to support the war" and therefore are legitimate military targets. He hopes for more strikes and asks: "Are they whining yet? Are they howling yet?"

5:07 ( https://twitter.com/JuliaDavisNews/status/1579578461869731840 )

- Julia Davis {The Daily beast} @JuliaDavisNews | 5:03 PM · Oct 10, 2022
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Russian commentator Alexander Kots on today’s strikes across Ukraine:

“It remains to be hoped that this is not a one-time action of retaliation but a new system of warfare into the depths of the Ukrainian state until it loses its ability to function”

- Samuel Ramani @SamRamani2 | 10:07 PM · Oct 10, 2022
DPhil/PhD Intl Relations @UniofOxford, Assoc Fellow @RUSI_org, Bylines @ForeignPolicy, WaPo etc 3 forthcoming books HurstPublishers

FLASH @Flash_news_ua | 2:22 PM · Oct 10, 2022:

⚡️ The Russian army fired $400-700 million worth of missiles over Ukraine in half a day, - reports the Ukrainian edition of Forbes.
The total cost of all drones released on October 10 - several million dollars.
@Flash_news_ua

Screenshot ( https://twitter.com/Flash_news_ua/status/1579537990187384833/photo/1 )

To calculate the cost of these missiles, Forbes used the following estimates: the cost of the
X-101 missile - $13 million
"Kalibr" - $6.5 million
"Iskander" - $3 million
"Onyx" - $1.25 million
X-22 - $1 million
"Point-U" - $0.3 million.

Russian state TV showcases the latest strikes against Ukraine, seamlessly incorporating Donald Trump, Mike Pompeo & Elon Musk into their war propaganda. As for the "negotiations," it's been stated all along that Moscow seeks nothing less than Ukraine's unconditional capitulation.

5:28 ( https://twitter.com/JuliaDavisNews/status/1579524323953737728 )

- Julia Davis (The Daily Beast) @JuliaDavisNews | 1:28 PM · Oct 10, 2022

How is Russian state TV explaining the missile strike on a children's playground in Kyiv?

Last night it made the implausible claim that the strikes in residential areas (as opposed to the ones on Ukraine's energy infrastructure) were the work of Ukraine's own air defence systems

1:07 ( https://twitter.com/francis_scarr/status/1579744236786024448 )

- Francis Scarr @francis_scarr | 4:02 AM · Oct 11, 2022
With @BBCMonitoring watching Russian state TV so you don't have to

Dmitri @wartranslated | 8:23 AM · Oct 11, 2022:

Sorry, been a bit quiet recently, just a bit overwhelmed.

Here's "DPR" separatist and terrorist Pavel Gubarev* stating he will kill millions of Ukrainians possessed by demons, and even exterminate them all if need to be.

1:58 ( https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1579809855380291584 )

* Pavel Gubarev is a Ukrainian pro-Russian activist who proclaimed himself the "People's Governor" of the Donetsk Region at the Regional Assembly on 3 March 2014, after separatists seized the building. Gubarev had earlier declared himself leader of the Donbas People's Militia. Wikipedia

Lavrov says Russia open to talks with West, awaiting serious proposal
Reuters | Oct 11, 2022

...He also said Russia would not turn down a meeting between President Vladimir Putin and U.S. President Joe Biden at a mid-November summit of the Group of 20 in Indonesia, and would consider the proposal if it receives one.

...Lavrov noted that direct talks between Russia and Ukraine had broken down at the end of March. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy has ruled out talking to Putin after Russia claimed the annexation last month of four Ukrainian regions that it partly occupies.

https://www.reuters.com/world/russia-open-putin-meeting-biden-g20-lavrov-says-20...
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Putin may meet Erdogan to discuss idea of Russia-West talks, Kremlin says
Reuters | October 10, 2022

Both Putin and Erdogan are expected to visit Kazakhstan this week.

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/putin-may-meet-erdogan-discuss-idea-russia-...
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Hungary’s Orban says Trump is the ‘hope for peace’ in Ukraine
Loveday Morris | October 11, 2022

Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban on Tuesday accused the United States of perpetuating the war in Ukraine by providing it with weapons and said there should be U.S.-Russian negotiations to bring about a cease-fire...

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/10/11/viktor-orban-ukraine-hungary-tru...
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Musk spoke w Putin before tweeting Ukraine peace plan, i.e., Crimea would formally become part of Russia, Ukraine must remain neutral, new voting in the 4 Ukraine regions Russia annexed. Musk says the votes would be held under U.N. supervision.
https://twitter.com/apmassaro3/status/1579864482486312960/photo/1
https://www.vice.com/en/article/ake44z/elon-musk-vladimir-putin-ukraine

Amee Vanderpool @girlsreallyrule · 3h
Elon Musk spoke directly with Putin before tweeting a proposal to end the war in Ukraine that would have seen territory permanently ceded to Russia, in what looks like a direct violation of the Logan Act:
https://twitter.com/girlsreallyrule/status/1579871400961396738/photo/1
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Biden calls Zelensky after Russian revenge strikes, again vows US aid ‘as long as it takes’
Steven Nelson | October 10, 2022

...The White House said that during the call Biden “pledged to continue providing Ukraine with the support needed to defend itself, including advanced air defense systems.”

“He also underscored his ongoing engagement with allies and partners to continue imposing costs on Russia, holding Russia accountable for its war crimes and atrocities, and providing Ukraine with security, economic, and humanitarian assistance,” the White House added.

https://nypost.com/2022/10/10/biden-condemns-russian-strikes-on-ukraine-after-cr...

Michael McFaul (frmr US ambassador to Russia) McFaul | 12:27 PM · Oct 11, 2022:

"If the Russian government does not help to pay for Ukrainian reconstruction, the burden will be passed on to taxpayers in Ukraine, other European democracies, Canada, and the United States. Is that fair?" 1/ THREAD

"Why should taxpayers in these countries have to pay for reconstruction but not the Russian government?"

From Working Group Paper #6: Why and How to Confiscate Russia’s Sovereign Assets to Help Rebuild Ukraine.
https://drive.google.com/file/d/1cBAR-tpJSqU8R1nVPHSKcSTFKeSEWbfi/view

2/ END

Russians who were mobilized 11 days ago are now on the front in Svatove. They received one day of training which consisted of firing 3 bursts from a machine gun.

1:01 ( https://twitter.com/jackryan212/status/1579646928845144065 )

- Jack Ryan 🇺🇸🇺🇦 @jackryan212 | 9:35 PM · Oct 10, 2022

PintFella @pint_fella
omg dude knows he’s in Svatove but has to ask his mates where that is 😂 they tell him he’s in Luhansk

Jack Ryan 🇺🇸🇺🇦 @jackryan212
The whole thing is awful

John Nettor @JohnENettor
Interesting to me: Who is the dude in the back (at 9 sec mark) who doesn't seem to part of the group? Would he be a "minder" of the mobiliks?

Jack Ryan 🇺🇸🇺🇦 @jackryan212
Looks like a possibility but I doubt he would’ve let them make this video if his job was to be a minder. I was watching a video with a Mobik POW. He said they just get dumped somewhere as a group and are told to pick someone to be the unit commander. So maybe that’s theirs.

PopzTee @BaxterT2000
Hope they read the surrender leaflets.

Jack Ryan 🇺🇸🇺🇦 @jackryan212
Every Russian man should be downloading those numbers and contacts.

Fjällröven @rincefire · Oct 11
Responding to request for translation}
There isn't much to hear, tbh, they are complaining about sitting 11 days there in Svatove having received a day of training shooting three magazines.
Then he shows the document on the door which is an instruction in Ukrainian and complains it's not in Russian.
That's it.

Game changer: Germany has delivered its cutting edge aerial defence system Iris-T SLM to Ukraine. The €140m system can protect an entire city the size of Kyiv from any aerial attack, including missiles, drones etc. Three more will be delivered soon

Ukraine hat deutsches Luftabwehrsystem erhalten
Seit Monaten stellt die Bundesregierung der Ukraine ein modernes Luftverteidigungssystem in Aussicht. Jetzt wurde die deutsche Flugabwehrwaffe Iris-T nach SPIEGEL-Informationen an das ukrainische Militär übergeben.
Von Marina Kormbaki
11.10.2022, 16.31 Uhr

https://www.spiegel.de/politik/deutschland/ukraine-hat-deutsches-luftabwehrsyste...

-Bojan Pancevski @bopanc | 11:08 AM · Oct 11, 2022
Journalist, Author, Germany Correspondent for the WSJ.

Elon Musk blocks Ukraine from using Starlink in Crimea over concern that Putin could use nuclear weapons: report
Charles R. Davis | October 11, 2022

Elon Musk personally rejected a Ukrainian request to extend his satellite internet service to Crimea, the SpaceX CEO fearing that an effort to retake the peninsula from Russian forces could lead to a nuclear war...

Following Russia's February invasion of Ukraine, Musk — and the US government — provided Kyiv with thousands of Starlink systems, enabling Ukrainian forces to communicate in what were previously dead zones. The low energy requirements of the service's satellite receivers have enabled it to be connected to reconnaissance drones...providing valuable, real-time intelligence on Russian movements and the ability to target them.

But recently there have been problems...the service was suffering "catastrophic" outages on the frontlines, prompting speculation that it had been shut off in areas controlled by Russia — perhaps to prevent the Kremlin from itself exploiting the network.

On Twitter, Musk said he could not comment on battlefield conditions, saying "that's classified." But speaking to Eurasia Group political analyst Ian Bremmer in late September, Musk appeared to confirm that the satellite service was being intentionally disabled.

...Musk, speaking to Bremmer, said that he had been asked by Ukraine's defense ministry to activate Starlink in Crimea, which was invaded and illegally annexed by Russia in 2014. Per Bremmer, Musk "refused given the potential for escalation."

According to Bremmer, Musk claimed to have recently spoken with Russian President Vladimir Putin, asserting that he is "prepared to negotiate" (Musk this month proposed a Ukraine peace plan seen as aligning with Russian interests). In that conversation, Putin reportedly threatened to use nuclear weapons if Ukraine tried to retake the Crimean peninsula, which serves as the base for Russia's naval forces on the Black Sea.

On Twitter, however, Musk flatly denied having any recent conversation with the Russian leader, writing that he has "spoken to Putin only once and that was about 18 months ago." The subject, he said, "was space." (Bremmer is likewise adamant, writing on social media that Musk "told me he had spoken with {P}utin and the {K}remlin directly about {U}kraine."...

(Business Insider)
https://news.yahoo.com/elon-musk-blocks-ukraine-using-174508012.html

Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya* @Tsihanouskaya | 12:37 PM · Oct 11, 2022:
National leader of Belarus / Telegram http://t.me/tsikhanouskaya

I addressed President Zelenskyy today & proposed to build an alliance between Ukraine & democratic Belarus. To establish political & diplomatic relations. Because the fates of our nations are intertwined. We are ready for cooperation & we #StandWithUkraine🇺🇦

0:58 ( https://twitter.com/Tsihanouskaya/status/1579873938783752192 )

* Sviatlana Heorhiyeuna Tsikhanouskaya is a Belarusian educator and the leader of the Belarusian democratic movement. She ran in the 2020 Belarusian presidential election as the main opposition candidate after her husband Sergei Tikhanovsky was arrested in Hrodna by Belarusian authorities. Wikipedia

Francis Scarr (BBC Monitoring) @francis_scarr | 5:00 AM · Oct 12, 2022:
Just another totally normal day on Russian TV

Talking head Bogdan Bezpalko says Ukraine needs to be "constantly battered" by missile strikes for several weeks so that the country "descends into cold and darkness"

0:37 ( https://twitter.com/francis_scarr/status/1580121226470903808 )

Julia Davis (The Daily Beast) @JuliaDavisNews | 9:59 AM · Oct 12, 2022:
Meanwhile on Russian TV: everyone was rejoicing about the latest strikes against Ukraine, but some demanded more, complaining there wasn't enough devastation. Irritated State Duma member complained that they ruined the fun for tens of millions of Russians.
3:44 ( https://twitter.com/JuliaDavisNews/status/1580196518765551616 )

Quote Tweet
Julia Davis @JuliaDavisNews · 17h
Kremlin TV Exposes the Real Goal of Putin’s Missile Strikes:

They were meant as a mood booster for Russian audiences: “Symbolic strikes are very important—we live in the information age.”

https://thedailybeast.com/russian-state-media-exposes-the-real-goal-of-vladimir-...

Meduza in English @meduza_en | 9:06 AM · Oct 12, 2022:
Breaking news in Russia, investigative reports, interviews, and opinions. In English. You’re welcome.

Russia's "irrecoverable losses" in the war with Ukraine have just become known: according to an FSB (main successor agency to kGB) source, that figure is 90K. This includes troops who were killed, went missing, died from wounds, or were disabled and cannot return to military service.

Russia’s ‘irrecoverable losses’ in Ukraine: more than 90,000 troops dead, disabled, or Meduza | October 12, 2022
https://meduza.io/en/news/2022/10/12/russia-s-irrecoverable-losses-in-ukraine-mo...

Julia Davis (The Daily Beast) @JuliaDavisNews | 1:53 PM · Oct 12, 2022
This clip is all over Russian state TV, but they're falsely claiming that Ukrainians did this and are demanding revenge.

Quote Tweet
✙ My home is Ukraine Fella🇺🇦🇪🇺 Ї |@Viktori99541433 | 8:51 AM · Oct 9, 2022
🤯This is the occupied #Kupyansk of the Kharkiv region. Civilian.
The video was taken from the occupant's phone
#RussiaIsATerroristState #RussiaIsANaziState
0:06 ( https://twitter.com/Viktori99541433/status/1579092074305314817 )

https://t.me/MaksymZhorin/3
{English translation}
Zhorin from Azov
Hello everybody!
Censorship on Facebook just stopped, I forgot about Instagram for a long time, so I decided to start a Telegram channel. I will write here what I think - about events in Ukraine and the world, about cotton monsters, about our activities. Not only as the former commander of the "Azov" regiment or the head of the Central Staff of the National Corps, but also simply as a person.

Subscribe, there will be a lot of interesting things;)

@MaksymZhorin
t.me/MaksymZhorin/3
3.5K views
Aug 18, 2020 at 11:35

The Kyiv Independent @KyivIndependent | 7:01 AM · Oct 12, 2022:
⚡️ General Staff: Belarus sends 20 T-72 tanks to Russia.

Belarus has sent the first batch of 20 T-72 tanks to the Belgorod* region, Ukraine's General Staff reported on Oct. 12.

The Belarusian defense industry is already involved in repairing some of the Russian military equipment damaged during the war in Ukraine, the General Staff stated.

* Belgorod is a city and the administrative center of Belgorod Oblast, Russia, located on the Seversky Donets River 40 kilometers north of the border with Ukraine. Population: 339,978; 356,402; 337,030; 300,408. Wikipedia. Belgorod is one of several southern Russian regions where targets such as fuel and ammunition stores have been rocked by explosions since Ukraine war. (Near Kharkiv.)

Jupiter Quirifella Bonkus Maximus @JupiterQuirinus
T-72 As unmodified since 1979. Saint Javelin will greet them

GiancarloC 🇪🇸🏳️‍🌈🏳️‍⚧️ CAMPIONI D'ITALIA!🇮🇹
Russia is down to T-62s, so this is an upgrade...

HE IS A LEGEND 🇩🇪 @alanisalegend
20 tanks? Strong! That helps Russia for one or two days XD

Samuel Ramani @SamRamani2 | 5:42 PM · Oct 12, 2022:
DPhil/PhD Intl Relations @UniofOxford, Assoc Fellow @RUSI_org, Bylines @ForeignPolicy, WaPo etc 3 forthcoming books HurstPublishers

BREAKING: 143 countries in the UNGA vote to uphold Ukraine's territorial integrity

Just Belarus, Syria, North Korea and Nicaragua side with Russia

Key non-Western powers, such as China and India abstain, but Brazil supports the resolution, in spite of abstaining in the UNSC on territorial annexations

Samuel Ramani @SamRamani2 | 2:59 AM · Oct 13, 2022:

BREAKING: Britain announces it will deliver AMRAAM air defence missiles to Ukraine in the coming weeks

British AMRAAMs or advanced medium range air to air missile rockets will be used with a US ground rocket launcher system

Their focus will be on protecting Ukraine's civilian infrastructure after the October 10 Russian attacks on Kyiv

She blames Russian officers, not (yet) Putin and Shoigu...

Francis Scarr @francis_scarr | 5:56 AM · Oct 13, 2022:
Pro-war blogger Anastasia Kashevarova is outraged by reports of zinc coffins* with the bodies of recently mobilised men already returning to Russian cities

"You told us there would be training, that they wouldn't be sent to the front after a week"
https://t.me/akashevarova/5654
Text English (https://twitter.com/francis_scarr/status/1580497639266975745/photo/1)

Quote Tweet
Francis Scarr @francis_scarr · 4h
A local website in the Russian city of Chelyabinsk reports that five men called up in the nearby town of Korkino as part of the country's "partial mobilisation" have already been killed in Ukraine
https://74.ru/text/incidents/2022/10/13/71731982/

* The Russian phrase for it is tfinkovyye groby: zinc coffins. The Soviet dead in the Afghanistan war are shipped back home in sealed coffins made of zinc -- a relatively plentiful metal in the Soviet Union and one that doesn't rust.

>35 AlyssaGlynde:
Anders Åslund @anders_aslund | 10:30 AM · Oct 12, 2022
Economist & author. Russia, Ukraine & Eastern Europe. Read my latest book: "Russia's Crony Capitalism"

I notice that Russian bots and trolls are uncommonly active this week. Quite a few accounts with a minimum of followers but foul language that I have to block. Is this part of their last gasp before the regime recognizes that it has lost in Ukraine?

Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 @bayraktar_1love | 12:16 PM · Oct 12, 2022:

According to Russian-appointed head of Crimea, waiting at the ferry crossing in Crimea takes about 3-4 days. And there are about 900 trucks in line at the moment.

0:43 ( https://twitter.com/bayraktar_1love/status/1580230919306502151 )

Russian prisoners-of-war are reporting that they are dropped off a few days after "mobilization" into the front lines without training, mission orders, food, or drinking water. They're left exposed to the elements while under under fire with only rifles. These are men in their 40s talking to the Ukrainians who save their lives by taking them prisoner.

I won't link to the videos at this time because of the debates about how safe it is for the POW to show their faces on social media. Some of the commentators might also be too-easy targets for Russian cyber attacks when the discussions are widely shared across platforms.

However, I saw one comment I'll paraphrase, because I think it's an important POV: Ukraine is no longer fighting (only) a war against Russia; Ukrainians are now leading a rescue mission for middle-aged Russian men.

Samuel Ramani @SamRamani2 | 8:18 AM · Oct 13, 2022
BREAKING: 14 NATO countries and Finland will develop the European Sky Shield Initiative for air defence

This will strengthen intra-NATO air defence capabilities and further restrict Russia's willingness to test Article 5

Finland spoke about an intra-European air defence network yesterday but admitted it would play a minimal role in it

>40 aspirit: Putin and his military command are out of ideas. They don't have air superiority. They've lost most of their armor. They've been sending their troops into battle with no idea about objectives right from the beginning. They've never worried overmuch about feeding them. Pretty much they're left defending those areas they've conquered which are in large part destroyed and they can throw missiles at targets from afar. They've lost but Putin can't accept defeat it seems any more than Trump can.

Julia Davis ( The Daily Beast) @JuliaDavisNews | 5:02 PM · Oct 13, 2022:

Russian military experts say that the faster they finish their invasion of Ukraine, the better their negotiating position with the U.S. will be. Their solution: carpet bombing Ukraine until it is "paralyzed." So much for their initial pretense of "liberating a brotherly nation."

2:11 ( https://twitter.com/JuliaDavisNews/status/1580665264156209152 )

Chris Murphy @ChrisMurphyCT | 4:18 PM · Oct 13, 2022:
U.S. Senator from Connecticut.

1/ I support halting arms sales to Saudi Arabia, but there are two practical, immediate changes the U.S. can make to Saudi policy that will have an near term impact on the war in Ukraine.

Here me out. This is important.

2/ First, the Ukrainians are using (and need more) air-to-air AMRAAM missiles. These missiles are needed to defend against Russia's criminal bombardment of civilians.

The U.S. is scheduled to send 280 AMRAAMs to Saudi Arabia. These should be redirected to Ukraine.

3/ Second, there are U.S. owned and operated Patriot anti-missile batteries in Saudi Arabia right now. If Saudi Arabia isn't willing to take the side of Ukraine and U.S. over Russia, why should we keep these Patriots in Saudi Arabia when Ukraine and our NATO allies need them?

4/ We should remove these Patriot batteries from Saudi Arabia and move them to either Ukraine, or NATO partners who have transferred weapons to Ukraine and need to backfill defense systems.

These two steps would right-size our relationship with Saudi Arabia AND help Ukraine.

Exclusive: Musk’s SpaceX says it can no longer pay for critical satellite services in Ukraine, asks Pentagon to pick up the tab
Alex Marquardt | October 13, 2022

... SpaceX’s suggestion it will stop funding Starlink also comes amid rising concern in Ukraine over Musk’s allegiance. Musk recently tweeted a controversial peace plan that would have Ukraine give up Crimea and control over the eastern Luhansk and Donetsk regions.

After Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky raised the question of who Musk sides with, he responded that he “still very much supports Ukraine” but fears “massive escalation.”

Musk also argued privately last month that Ukraine doesn’t want peace negotiations right now and that if they went along with his plan, “Russia would accept those terms,” according to a person who heard them.

“Ukraine knows that its current government and wartime efforts are totally dependent on Starlink,” the person familiar with the discussions said. “The decision to keep Starlink running or not rests entirely in the hands of one man. That’s Elon Musk. He hasn’t been elected, no one decided to give him that power. He has it because of the technology and the company he built.”

On Tuesday Musk denied a report he has spoken to Putin directly about Ukraine. On Thursday, when a Ukrainian minister tweeted that Starlink is essential to Ukraine’s infrastructure, Musk replied: “You’re most welcome. Glad to support Ukraine.”

https://www.cnn.com/2022/10/13/politics/elon-musk-spacex-starlink-ukraine/index....

>43 margd: you need to establish air superiority to carpet bomb. The Russians have not done that. What they've been doing lately is sending missiles from the other side of the border targeting civil targets including those meant to knock out civilian water and energy service supply. Unless they go tactical nuclear or a dirty bomb they're not likely going to make areas uninhabitable. Those missiles are super expensive and I seriously doubt they have enough stockpiled to accomplish anywhere near their goal. This is bombast.

>46 lriley: Better bombast than bombING! :/
Speaking of bombast, below's an ugly rant. Sounds like Russian equivalent of QAnon--ZAnon?

Anton Gerashchenko @Gerashchenko_en | 8:58 AM · Oct 13, 2022:
Ukrainian patriot. Advisor to the Minister of Internal Affairs of Ukraine. Founder of the Institute of the Future. Official enemy of Russian propaganda

So Russians are the new crusaders. Then the washing machine is the new Holy Grail?
0:30 ( https://twitter.com/Gerashchenko_en/status/1580543543567081472 )

Yaroslav Trofimov @yarotrof | 3:10 PM · Oct 13, 2022:
Chief Foreign-Affairs Correspondent of The Wall Street Journal. Author of Siege of Mecca.

The bodybags of untrained mobilized Russian men are starting to come home from Ukraine — including to big cities like Moscow. Even the Z propagandists are getting upset. Here is the 28yo former head of dept in Moscow city gov’t, drafted Sept 23, killed Oct 10.

Photo & Ru text ( https://twitter.com/yarotrof/status/1580637031432003585/photo/1 )

Engl translation ( https://twitter.com/DJdolph/status/1580638630766575616/photo/1 )
__________________________________________

The Kyiv Independent @KyivIndependent | 6:28 AM · Oct 13, 2022:
https://twitter.com/KyivIndependent/status/1580505767979151360

⚡️ General Staff: Russian troops receive orders to stop offensive in some front-line areas.

Russian forces in some areas, particularly in Donetsk Oblast, have begun to receive orders from their leadership to stop offensive operations, Ukraine's General Staff reported on Oct. 13.

The main reasons behind those orders are "the extremely low morale and psychological condition of the recruits, numerous facts of desertion, and refusing to obey combat orders," reads the report.

ChrisO @ChrisO_wiki | 4:29 AM · Oct 14, 2022:
Independent military history author and researcher. Author of 'Ron the War Hero', the true story of L. Ron Hubbard's military career

1/ What's life like for newly-mobilised Russian troops in their barracks and temporary accomodation? Terrible, from all accounts, with no heating, no food, no sleeping bags, no hot water, no toilets, freezing tents, bedbug-infested mattresses and no training. 🧵 follows.
https://twitter.com/ChrisO_wiki/status/1580838265774829568

2/ The independent Russian media outlet Verstka reports on the experiences of mobilised men from Ufa and Chelyabinsk, two major cities in west-central Russia...

Source:
Бараки для новобранцев: без хлеба и горячей воды, в грязи и с клопами
Родственники мобилизованных из Уфы и Челябинска рассказали {{Вёрстке}} об ужасных условиях их содержания
https://verstka.media/mobilizovannye-bez-edy-vody-posteley/
...

Meduza reports that Putin is ready to talk but "Crimea is not to be mentioned", "annexed territories in Donbas to stay in Russia".
Russia may withdraw from Kherson area.
Smells like Minsk III that would allow Putin to better train and equip mobilized thousands of Russians

-Anton Barbashin @ABarbashin | 7:40 AM · Oct 14, 2022
Editorial Director @RiddleRussia /Редакционный Директор @RidlRussia
PGR @CEES_GlasgowUni

Dimko Zhluktenko 🇺🇦 @dim0kq | 3:45 AM · Oct 14, 2022:
Founder of 🇺🇦 military charity fund @dzygaspaw. Developer 🥑, Software Engineer, Community Leader @lvivdotnet.
🧵 https://twitter.com/dim0kq/status/1580827171903635456

Very interesting statement from @elonmusk re Ukrainian StarLink and how damaging it is for SpaceX economics.

Being Ukrainian actually in the topic of StarLinks, I want to tell you some based facts re starlinks in Ukraine.

0. I admire the actions of SpaceX of enabling StarLink service in Ukraine. It is a true game changer for Ukrainian army in the open fields of no cellular, and long distances not suitable for radios, given the situation is changing quick on the battlefield.

It’s a game-changer.

1. Despite that, I have not seen ANY StarLink which was bought by the governments, or by SpaceX. All the Starlinks I have seen / used - were bought either by volunteers like myself, or soldiers put their personal money in.

The subscription price is also paid out of the pocket.

2. In my charity fund @dzygaspaw, I have bought and delivered to the frontlines over 50 StarLinks, some of them are still being paid from my credit card, now 60$ each per month.

Pic related - one more StarLink I bought and pay for - for Ukrainian EOD unit for Kharkiv offensive.

3. I would be VERY curious to see actual transparency on the process of getting StarLinks up and running in Ukraine, all the hidden costs that Elon claims. Because - Ukrainians pay the same price as everyone else but it’s only Ukraine that is a subject to discussion for @elonmusk

4. I have bought over 50 StarLinks, with official prices right from the website in EU countries - Poland, CZ, Germany - like 400-500 bucks each, then enable portability for extra IIRC 50$, then payed monthly fee of 60$ (was 120$ before).

It’s the same for everyone else in EU.

5. My question is - why is Ukraine so special for @elonmusk
in sense of operating SpaceX
and StarLink? I don’t get the answers from the interview he did with CNN exclusive, especially given the numbers they claim.

I think it’s far from reality.

6. All pictures in this thread are legit usage of StarLinks in Ukrainian military for communication.

I am arranging that through my charity work - see http://dzygaspaw.com
I have helped my buddies in the military to survive - just because they can get information.

May I present you bank statement of my buddy

Melaniya Podolyak @MelaniePodolyak | 6:56 AM · Oct 14, 2022:
Info on Ukraine in UA/ENG, military/humanitarian aid, political comms. Oh, and I’m NOT President Zelensky’s advisor’s wife :)

So @elonmusk is whining about losing a lot of money on Starlinks for Ukraine.

Meanwhile, may I present to you snippets of my bank statements.
Thousands of Ukrainians, paying his company monthly.

So the question is: did you really lose more money than you earned?
Bank statement snippets
https://twitter.com/MelaniePodolyak/status/1580875153726062593/photo/1
https://twitter.com/MelaniePodolyak/status/1580875153726062593/photo/2
https://twitter.com/MelaniePodolyak/status/1580875153726062593/photo/3

These are payments made for accounts and devices purchased for UA military by ordinary Ukrainian citizens.
___________________________________________

Paul Massaro @apmassaro3
Can the Defense Production Act be used to ensure that Elon doesn’t shut off Ukrainian access to Starlink?

Michael MacKay @mhmck
Ukrainians – whose average annual income is about $6000 per year – crowd-funded $9.6 million in only a day to buy RAM II kamikaze drones.

Elon Musk – whose net worth is around $215 billion – wants U.S. taxpayers to pick up the tab for Starlink in Ukraine.

Why Russia is cheering on the Burkina Faso coup (BBC)

The latest coup in Burkina Faso saw young people waving Russian flags in the streets of the capital, Ouagadougou - something that must have warmed hearts in the Kremlin. Although fairly small in number, it has prompted speculation that there may have been some Russian involvement in the events that saw Captain Ibrahim Traoré seize power in a nation beset by growing jihadist violence... "In previous coups Russia has tried to position itself as an accidental beneficiary of regime changes," says Dr Ramanai from the Royal United Services Institute (Rusi), a defence and security think-tank, and author of Russia in Africa. "This time around Russia is a lot more proactive in support for the coup, and that has led to speculation that Russia has played a co-ordinating role." This points to the Wagner Group, though Russia has consistently denied that the mercenaries have any connection to the state and there is no evidence of direct Russian involvement. Shortly after taking power, Capt Traoré made it clear he wanted to work with new international partners to push back Islamist militant groups that have been active in the country since 2015. Many assumed he meant the Russians...

Some observations I've made from the USA:

• the talk of Elon Musk's ties to Saudi Arabian royalty doesn't make mainstream news, even when the investigation of his finances comes up;

• the FBI investigation into his finances is barely receiving (inter)national attention despite the similarities it has to corporate politicians who are big names in this season's most important elections here;

• and the screenshot of how Musk responded in only six minutes to the Ukrainian official yesterday (or two days ago?) is coming up on neither celebrity gossip sites nor fact-checking sites despite how screenshots of that unusually quick response are referenced on social media as evidence of a coordination of tweets which suggests Musk--a private triple citizen of South Africa, Canada, and the USA--is pressuring Ukrainian leadership to help him maintain his personal power so they don't lose critical communications while fighting against Putin's military.

edited for formatting and clarity

olexander scherba🇺🇦 @olex_scherba | 10:44 AM · Oct 14, 2022:
26 years in 🇺🇦 diplomatic service. Ukraine’s Ambassador to Austria (2014-2021). Author of “Undiplomatic Thoughts” (2021).

Dystopian. Draft commissioners wait for males exiting the building.
#MobilizationInRussia
2:55 ( https://twitter.com/olex_scherba/status/1580932607058984960 )

Karsten Berlin @KarstenBerlin2
Which city?

olexander scherba🇺🇦 @olex_scherba
Sankt Petersburg.

Samuel Ramani @SamRamani2 | 11:12 AM · Oct 14, 2022:

BREAKING: Belarus says that Russian troops will arrive within the regional grouping of forces "within the next few days"

This builds on Alexander Lukashenko's announcement of a regional grouping of Russian and Belarusian forces on the Ukraine border

This grouping is aimed at combatting alleged Ukrainian and Western threats to Belarus's security
_____________________________________________

The Kyiv Independent @KyivIndependent | 4:39 PM · Oct 14, 2022:

⚡️ Belarus provides over 60 tanks, dozens of vehicles to Russia.

Belarusian watchdog Belarusian Hajun reported that, over the past week, Belarus has transported at least 67 T-72 tanks and 28 Ural military trucks from its Mahilou region to Russia.

>46 lriley:

Reznikov: 609 high-precision missiles left in Russia
The Kyiv Independent | October 14, 2022

Russian forces have used 1,235 out of 1,844 Iskander, Kalibr, and air-launched cruise missiles since they started their all-out invasion in February, said Defense Minister Oleksii Reznikov.

"By using hundreds of high-precision missiles against Ukraine's civilian sites, the aggressor state reduces its ability to strike the military targets," said Reznikov...

https://kyivindependent.com/uncategorized/reznikov-609-high-precision-missiles-l...

The Associated Press
AP | 14 Oct 2022

How Moscow grabs Ukrainian children and makes them Russian
Thousands of Ukrainian children, many orphans or separated from their parents, have been deported to Russia.

An AP investigation tracks a declared and well-rooted Russian strategy to adopt those children, in violation of international laws and a possible marker of genocide.
Video via AP

2:01
https://twitter.com/AP/status/1580993480259575808
https://twitter.com/i/events/1580962152822804480
----------------------------------------------------------

How Moscow grabs Ukrainian kids and makes them Russian
SARAH EL DEEB, ANASTASIIA SHVETS and ELIZAVETA TILNA | October 13, 2022

...in May, Putin signed a decree making it easier for Russia to adopt and give citizenship to Ukrainian children without parental care — and harder for Ukraine and surviving relatives to win them back...

...Russia also has prepared a register of suitable Russian families for Ukrainian children, and pays them for each child who gets citizenship — up to $1,000 for those with disabilities. It holds summer camps for Ukrainian orphans, offers “patriotic education” classes and even runs a hotline to pair Russian families with children from Donbas...

https://apnews.com/article/ukrainian-children-russia-7493cb22c9086c6293c1ac7986d...
___________________________________________
ETA

Samuel Ramani @SamRamani2 | 2:48 PM · Oct 15, 2022:
Russia says that it is relocating 500 Ukrainian children each day from Kherson to Russian territory. A harrowing admission of war crimes.

Francis Scarr @francis_scarr | 4:28 AM · Oct 15, 2022
With @BBCMonitoring watching Russian state TV so you don't have to

Last night the body of Russian military draft officer Roman Malyk was found hanging on a fence in the town of Partizansk (near Vladivostok)

It reportedly showed signs of suicide, but "local residents doubt that he could have killed himself"

https://octagon.media/novosti/v_primore_umer_voenkom_pri_strannyx_obstoyatelstva...
{English translation}

In Primorye, he died as a military commissar under strange circumstances

The military commissar of the seaside town of Partizansk, Roman Malyk, tragically passed away. According to Oktagon.Vostok, a source close to law enforcement agencies, on the evening of October 14, the body of the military commissar was found hanging on a fence with signs of suicide. However, local residents doubt that the military commissar could commit suicide.

– The heart of a strong and courageous man stopped, who went through “hot spots”, but did not break under the weight of severe military events and heavy losses. Roman Vasilyevich was a man of his word and deed, he was known and respected in the city for his honesty and decency, - they write in the telegram channel of the Partizansk administration.

The head of Partizansk expressed condolences to the families and friends of the deceased. There is no official information from law enforcement agencies about the causes of death of the military commissar yet.

BREAKING: Saudi Arabia announces $400 million in aid to Ukraine

Saudi Arabia's humanitarian aid to Ukraine follows a phone call between Zelensky and Mohammed bin Salman

Saudi Arabia is positioning itself as a mediator in the Ukraine War again after its involvement in the Medvedchuk-Azov prisoner swap

-Samuel Ramani @SamRamani2 | 8:44 AM · Oct 15, 2022
DPhil/PhD Intl Relations @UniofOxford, Assoc Fellow @RUSI_org, Bylines @ForeignPolicy, WaPo etc 3 forthcoming books HurstPublishers
https://twitter.com/SamRamani2/status/1581264856992272386

>59 margd: Interesting timing.

Two days ago: "The White House accuses Saudi Arabia of aiding Russia and coercing OPEC oil producers" according to NPR's International Affairs Correspondent Jackie Northam.

https://www.npr.org/2022/10/13/1128523146/saudi-arabia-russia-opec-oil-cut-biden...

Saudi Arabia and Russia co-chair OPEC+ (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries plus its allies).

Within the past week, several members of US Congress have talked about ceasing weapons sales to Saudi Arabia (see Senator Chris Murphy's tweets above and other lawmakers' comments in the link below). The talks were fueled in part by concerns of Saudi Arabia's support of Russia in Putin's war against Ukraine.

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2022/oct/11/democratic-senator-robert-menend...

>60 aspirit: Very interesting timing.

The Kyiv Independent @KyivIndependent | 10:32 AM · Oct 15, 2022:
⚡️Germany hands over 16 Biber bridge-layer tanks to Ukraine.

The German Defense Ministry pledged the delivery in late July, saying that the tanks “will enable Ukrainian troops to cross waters or obstacles in combat.”

According to the country's government, Germany also supplied Ukraine with ten pontoon bridge machines. On Oct. 12, the German government announced it would hand over to Ukraine more Panzerhaubitze 2000 self-propelled howitzers and MARS II multiple rocket launchers.

Gabrielius Landsbergis🇱🇹
@GLandsbergis
Minister of Foreign Affairs, Member of Parliament of Lithuania, Chairman of TS-LKD, Homeland Union Party of Lithuania
tweeted at 11:14 AM EST today, Oct 15:
"Ukraine's internet connectivity is too important to be left in the hands of one private individual. Let's find a way to form a coalition of Ukraine's allies to pay for Starlink, or let's find an alternative supplier. Lithuania is ready to contribute."

A tale of three generals — how the Ukrainian military turned the tide
{Generals Zaluzhnyi, Syrskiy and Kovalchuk,}
Mick Ryan* | 14 Oct 2022

...a strategy of corrosion. The Ukrainians, through a variety of indirect attacks, information operations, destruction of Russian logistics and commanders, and tough close combat, have embraced the corrosion of the Russian physical, moral, and intellectual capacity to fight.

British military historian and theorist, Basil Liddell Hart described this as the indirect approach. He wrote about how ‘effective results in war have rarely been attained unless the approach has had such indirectness as to ensure the opponents unreadiness to meet it.’

The Ukrainians have clearly studied this approach closely. They have attacked the weakest physical support systems of the Russian army in Ukraine — communications networks, logistic supply routes, rear areas, artillery and senior commanders in their command posts. In the initial Battles for Kyiv and Kharkiv, the Ukrainians were able to fight the Russians to a standstill because they were able to penetrate Russian rear areas and destroy parts of their logistic support. All of this also had a significant impact on Russian morale. The Ukrainians corroded the northern Russian expedition physical and morally from within and forced its withdrawal from Ukraine.

From the start of the war, leading this effort has been General Valeriy Zaluzhnyi. Appointed by President Zelensky to usher in a new generation of military leaders, Zaluzhnyi has proved to be a decisive yet innovative leader of the kind required when a smaller nation must fight off a larger predator. He has also shown a talent for appointing talented subordinate generals, providing them with guidance and then allowing them to get on with the job. It is this command philosophy from the top, combined with the military strategy of corrosion, that has provided the sure foundations of operational success in Kherson and Kharkiv.

...The Ukrainians have answered the questions of earlier this year about whether they could conduct offensives as well as they could defend. They have done so in the most resounding of ways. Ukraine is smashing the Russian Army and has developed a mastery of modern war that many will seek to emulate.

https://engelsbergideas.com/essays/a-tale-of-two-generals-how-the-ukrainian-mili...

* Mick Ryan is a recently retired Australian Army Major General. He is currently an adjunct fellow at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, and is the author of War Transformed, a book on future war published February 15, 2022, by U.S. Naval Institute Books.

Francis Scarr @francis_scarr | 5:08 PM · Oct 15, 2022:
I'm honestly speechless

This is a fast-track mass wedding for Russian conscripts in St Petersburg

According to this local TV report, being mobilised to fight in Ukraine is now considered a valid reason for speeding up the marriage registration process
https://youtu.be/PK-IfTnE61s

1:31 ( https://twitter.com/francis_scarr/status/1581391693537869824 )

Timothy Snyder @TimothyDSnyder | 1:39 PM · Oct 15, 2022

Two million views of my open Yale lecture class on the history of Ukraine. The first lecture is here.

Timothy Snyder: The Making of Modern Ukraine. Class 1: Ukrainian...
Class 1 is an introduction to the course and an exploration of questions raised by the Russian invasion of Ukraine.Timothy Snyder is the Richard C. Levin Pro...
46:04 ( https://twitter.com/TimothyDSnyder/status/1581339020902006784 )

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bJczLlwp-d8 {at least 11 lectures on Ukraine}

The Institute for the Study of War is a policy research organization focused on U.S. national security.

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, October 15
Oct 15, 2022 - Press ISW

Key Takeaways
Russia is conducting forced deportation of Ukrainians that likely amount to a deliberate ethnic cleansing campaign in addition to apparent violations of the Convention on the Prevention and Punishment of the Crime of Genocide...

...The Wagner Group Private Military Company is likely continuing efforts to assert its supremacy over the Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) and more conventional Russian ground forces...

...Mobilized Russian forces engaged in a fratricidal altercation at a training ground in Belgorod Oblast*...

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessm...
----------------------------------------------------------------
ETA

2 attackers opened fire on volunteer troops preparing to deploy to Ukraine
Charles Maynes | Updated October 15, 2022

Eleven people were killed and 15 wounded in an armed attack this weekend on a Russian military training ground for troops preparing to deploy to Ukraine...

...two armed assailants opened fire Saturday morning on a military training ground for volunteer fighters in the Belgorod region, which borders Ukraine... attackers ...were killed in an ensuing firefight.

(Russia's Defense Ministry) said both shooters were from countries that were part of a commonwealth of former Soviet republics...

https://www.npr.org/2022/10/15/1129321544/russia-soldiers-shooting-training-belg...

Peter Zeihan @PeterZeihan | 9:32 PM · Oct 15, 2022:
Geopolitical strategist, speaker & author. Free → http://zeihan.com/newsletter/ My fourth book - NYT BestSeller #TheEndofTheWorld - out now

Ukraine just initiated a media blackout on Kherson news. That’s what Kyiv does when it begins big military ops. The final push to liberate the city is beginning…now.

How Eurasian borders changed over time (1140-2004)
https://twitter.com/RogersHistory/status/1581610302856081410

David Frum @davidfrum | 2:14 AM · Oct 17, 2022
Russians apparently targeting Kyiv’s heating plants. Soviet-era buildings lack their own furnaces, depend on steam circulated from big central facilities. Long feared that Putin would try to freeze out civilians. The Iranian-made drones an extra nasty twist

Theoretically, two could play at this game. Ukraine has ways to retaliate upon Russian urban heat. They’ve been restrained at least in part to placate Western allies. The rule that Moscow/Petersburg are off limits could change if Russia tries a nuclear demonstration
__________________________________________

The Kyiv Independent @KyivIndependent | 9:48 AM · Oct 16, 2022:
⚡️ Belarus' Defense Ministry: Nearly 9,000 troops to form Russia-Belarus joint military force.

The figure for the joint military command was announced on Oct. 16 by Valery Revenko, the head of Belarus' Defense Ministry’s Department for International Military Cooperation.
__________________________________________

The Kyiv Independent @KyivIndependent | 7:31 PM · Oct 16, 2022:
⚡️ Russian forces attack Mykolaiv Oblast with Iranian-made drones.

Ukraine’s Air Force reported that within an hour on Oct. 16, anti-aircraft missile units of the Air Command “South” destroyed nine Shahed-136 Iranian-made kamikaze drones in southern Ukraine.
----------------------------------------------------------

The Kyiv Independent @KyivIndependent | 3:51 AM · Oct 17, 2022:
Russia launched at least four confirmed strikes on Kyiv using Iranian-made Shahed-136 drones early on Oct. 17.

Information on casualties is not yet available.

📷Anadolu Agency, AFP via Getty Images
https://twitter.com/KyivIndependent/status/1581915714583408641/photo/1
https://twitter.com/KyivIndependent/status/1581915714583408641/photo/2
https://twitter.com/KyivIndependent/status/1581915714583408641/photo/3
https://twitter.com/KyivIndependent/status/1581915714583408641/photo/4
----------------------------------------------------------------

The Kyiv Independent @KyivIndependent | 3:32 AM · Oct 17, 2022:
⚡️ Air defense downs 26 Shahed-136 kamikaze drones overnight.

Ukraine's air defense shot down 26 Iranian-made Shahed-136 kamikaze drones launched overnight on Oct. 16, according to Air Force spokesman Yurii Ihnat.
3:32 AM · Oct 17, 2022
______________________________________________

James Franey (Daily Mail) @jamesfraney | 4:19 AM · Oct 17, 2022:
Rush hour traffic returns to central Kyiv just four hours after a series of Iranian suicide drone attacks
Photo ( https://twitter.com/jamesfraney/status/1581922845059584000/photo/1 )
______________________________________________

Yaroslav Trofimov @yarotrof | 1:24 AM · Oct 17, 2022:
Chief Foreign-Affairs Correspondent of The Wall Street Journal. Author of Siege of Mecca.

Russia attacks Kyiv with a swarm of Iranian kamikaze drones, some of which manage to get through air defenses and hit the city center. Iran developing and perfecting with Russia a weapons system that could be used against Tel Aviv, Riyadh or Abu Dhabi.

Julia Davis (The Daily Beast) @JuliaDavisNews | 10:19 PM · Oct 16, 2022

Meanwhile in Russia: Tempers fly, as not everybody is happy with the government's failure to properly equip the troops, leading to proposals to cancel the New Year's festivities and spend the money on the military. One pundit concludes: "The government sh*t its pants."

5:31 ( https://twitter.com/JuliaDavisNews/status/1581832163905146880 )

Julia Davis (The Daily Beast) @JuliaDavisNews | 9:49 AM · Oct 16, 2022:

Conductor Yuriy Kerpatenko declined to take part in a concert “intended by the occupiers to demonstrate the so-called ‘improvement of peaceful life’ in Kherson.”

Russian soldiers have shot dead a Ukrainian musician in his home after he refused to take part in a concert in occupied Kherson. https://theguardian.com/world/2022/oct/16/russian-troops-kill-ukrainian-musician...

Kherson to be smashed and flooded? Civilians to be used as human shields?

Occupation officials announce transfer of civilians to left bank of Dnipro River: 'the battle for Kherson will begin soon'
10:50 pm, October 18, 2022
Source: Vladimir Saldo

Vladimir Saldo, head of the Russian occupation administration of Kherson region, announced the “organized transfer” of civilians in four municipalities from the right bank to the left bank* of the Dnipro River. The measure is necessary, he said, because Ukraine is “assembling forces for a wide-scale offensive” and there is an “immediate danger that the territory will be flooded due to the planned destruction of the dam at the Kakhovka Hydroelectric Power Plant."

Saldo also called for people not to listen to “alarmists,” claiming that “the Kherson region remains under the reliable protection of the Russian army.”

Soon after the announcement, Saldo’s deputy, Kirill Stremousov, said that “the battle for Kherson will begin very soon.” He called on civilians to “leave the area of the brutal fighting to come if possible.”

Earlier on Tuesday, Kherson occupation official Marat Khusnullin promised housing vouchers to all Kherson residents willing to leave the region for Russia.

https://meduza.io/en/news/2022/10/19/occupation-officials-announce-transfer-of-c...

* The right bank in Ukraine is west of the river Dnieper. The left bank is east towards Russia: https://www.tidridge.com/uploads/3/8/4/1/3841927/cossacks_and_right___left_bank....
_________________________________________

Francis Scarr @francis_scarr | 4:43 PM · Oct 18, 2022:
With @BBCMonitoring watching Russian state TV so you don't have to

In a late-night address posted on Telegram, Russian-installed Kherson official Kirill Stremousov calls for people to "evacuate the city as quickly as possible" and says Ukraine "will begin an offensive on the city of Kherson very soon"

0:51 ( https://twitter.com/francis_scarr/status/1582472381519781888 )

ETA: For reference another clip of Kherson official Kirill Stremousov this time suggesting that France and Germany could hold referenda and join the Russian Federation: https://twitter.com/Gerashchenko_en/status/1582679399731990528 }
________________________________________

Illia Ponomarenko 🇺🇦 @IAPonomarenko | 2:54 AM · Oct 19, 2022:
Defense reporter with @KyivIndependent.

It is very likely that if/when the Russian military withdraws Kherson, it will be using the human shield of civilians it will also be forcibly “evacuating” across the Dnipro.
This would be a grave violation (unsurprisingly) that would nonetheless prevent Ukrainian attacks.

Julia Davis (The Daily Beast) @JuliaDavisNews | 7:12 PM · Oct 18, 2022:
Watch: this is how Russian state TV deals with those who dare to contradict the approved rhetoric: they're hammered and threatened by other participants to the point of reversing their position. Beware that the origins of the clip they discussed were intentionally misrepresented.
7:16 ( https://twitter.com/JuliaDavisNews/status/1582509984360804352 )

>74 margd: speaking to whatever was misrepresented. They seem to be talking about some alleged crime committed by a member of the Azov regiment and FWIW Azov heading into this conflict already had a reputation for being a home to far right and neo-Nazi individuals. Might also be said that the point the one guy was trying to make at least for a while was that atrocities by one side often beget atrocities by the other. People don't want to hear it but that's pretty much true. There is little doubt in my mind that the Russians committed many atrocities in their occupations of small towns and villages in the early months of the war. It fuels rage and revenge. The Ukrainian Army no doubt is way more disciplined than their Russian counterparts but anyone thinking that there haven't been tortures and murders inflicted on Russian military personnel might want to rethink that. Retaliation is something that pretty much always happens to lesser or greater degrees depending a lot on how disciplined an Army is but they still happen. Just from talking to my dad about his WWII experiences (which didn't happen very often because he didn't like to talk about it) some of the shit the USMC or USArmy did during that war would certainly meet the criteria of war crimes---that would go for both the European and Pacific theaters also the Korean, Vietnam and Iraqi and Afghan conflicts.

>75 lriley: It was blurred out, but the clip shown was of soldiers tossing body of civilian woman in a pit. It was found on a Russian's phone, and soldiers tossing had red bands of Ru military. Almost certainly Russian, but presented on Ru TV as though Ukrainian monsters did it. I am sure bad things / crimes happen on both sides, but seems like orders of magnitude worse from Russians -- by design. Ukrainians have more to lose than Russians do in being caught in a lie, but I am sure they are not above releasing a bit of false

In WW2 my dad was sent to Netherlands after the fighting -- not to occupy Germany. (Wise decision not to send in battle-hardened soldiers.) He made distinction between SS and regular German POWs they captured (farm boys like us, happy to be out of the fighting, who didn't believe Nazi stories of fate that awaited them in hands of Allies). The worst thing he 'fessed to was strangling a goose (for dinner?) in spite of German farmer pleading for life of his prize bird. To a country boy, after a long fight, I suspect a goose was a goose was a dinner that he was happy to take from the enemy? The worst abuse he told me about (several times, so it was significant event to him) was to an African-American soldier on a s American base--beaten with a rubber hose for breaking curfew. (Dad trained in US and British Caribbean, as part of Canadian military before being sent overseas.)

>76 margd: my dad rejoined for Korea but didn't fight. His troop ship was getting set to disembark his unit when the armistice was signed. We went to see my wife's Uncle in Smyrna Beach Florida several years ago. He was in the Army in Korea during that conflict but his unit didn't fight. It seemed to bother him. I told him he was lucky and from what my Dad told me he didn't miss anything. There are reasons why so many combat veterans have psychological issues.....normal people aren't meant to kill each other. Part of the purpose of boot camps and all the training that comes after that is to reinvent a person into someone who can but it's like putting tires made out of wood on an automobile.....a person can only go so far with it before it breaks down. There are the pathological but they are a very small percentage. Part of the issue for civilians who never have to deal directly with this is making heroes out of those who really need more empathy and quite often psychological help afterwards. After WWII there was none of that.....you got dumped out of the service and then were on your own--well there were GI loans. These days it's recognized that some of these people are walking time bombs who quite often harm themselves but there are those who harm others too.

>77 lriley: My son works as patient attendant at U hospital, and is being trained to work on psych floor. Thinking of applying for job at VA. Yikes! One thing trainors impress on their students is not to let yourself be cornered. Yikes!

>78 margd: there is a LT member Bert that I talk to quite often here who worked for many years as a clinical psychologist at VA hospitals--mainly with Korean and Vietnam vets and the turnover to Iraqi and Afghani vets. He has some interesting things to say sometimes on this stuff. Not sure he'd like me to share it all though but I also used the VA for a while (USCG from 1981-85) and that included some time spent at the behavioral unit located on the 5th floor of the Bath NY VA. You don't have to have been in actual combat to access that kind of help if you think you might need it. People aren't immune to depression or whatever.....there are loads of issues that can affect almost anyone. That said combat is a very traumatic experience for the great majority of people who experience it.

Russian soldiers returning to their homes see what Putin's government was telling their friends, family, employers, teachers, students,....

That must be developing into a social disaster. I can't think of that working out for the current leadership in Russia any more than it will for the masses told to ignore reality after traumatizing events.

>80 aspirit: Unfortunately so many people believe in the propaganda that there is no social disaster developing. The magnitude of disinformation they are told is astonishing.

>81 annushka: While I agree on your last point....

The survivors among the over 200,000 people sent to invade Ukraine are going to have their own experiences that contradict the disinformation, and their return will follow the coffins that have already started coming into the country because of suicides and mistreatment by the military. Those might seem small numbers in comparison to the country's population, especially considering that many of the Russians dropped on the front lines were marginalized in some way, but I doubt they are jnsignificant. A few of the deaths and several of the surrenders have already caused noticeable backlash.

Some of the invasion's veterans (many who were unwilling from the start) will also undoutedly learn if they didn't already know what happened to war protestors who were trying to save lives.

I live in a rural area of the USA where the pervasive government propaganda contradicts what war veterans (who volunteered to serve!) experienced both within the military then on their reentry into civilian life. The suicide rates are high. It's decreased in the past years, as we've seen locally signs of hope that the political systems will improve again. However, from what I see indications of in international news is that personal crises will be more widespread through the Russian troops.

History as well as well as recent events shows what's about to happen. Maybe "social disaster" is a phrase that doesn't have much meaning while we see so much societal breakdown everywhere, but I believe it's not entirely inaccurate.

corrected a typo

>82 aspirit: Your point is valid. People who will survive and come back will have a real story to tell. The challenge is that due to the number of recently signed laws, it is illegal in Russia to share anything about the war that differs from what their propaganda machine is producing. I was closely monitoring the recent mobilization hoping to see people show resistance. While during the first few days there were some demonstrations (which are considered illegal there), those were in small numbers and people ended up arrested. Most of the families whose husbands/sons got called up since the start of the mobilization are complaining about the lack of proper uniforms and other equipment their loved ones are supposed to receive and no adequate training before people are sent to the front lines. People in Russia are used to personal crises. The last 150 years of Russian history have a lot to show to support it. People are led to believe this war is worth the sacrifice and they are willing to do it because they believe in the cause.

I was surprised to learn that Russia (144 million) population was so much less than the US (329 million). The US faces similar demographic challenges, but has option of immigration--and not by force.

Russia’s population is in a historic decline as emigration, war and a plunging birth rate form a ‘perfect storm’
Bloomberg | October 18, 2022

Besides casualties in the thousands on the battlefield, the enlistment of 300,000 reservists to join the fight — and an even bigger flight of men abroad — is derailing Putin’s goals of starting to stabilize the population already this year.

Crippling disruptions from the war are converging with a population crisis rooted in the 1990s, a period of economic hardship after the Soviet breakup that sent fertility rates plunging. Independent demographer Alexei Raksha is calling it “a perfect storm.”

Plans by Putin’s government had set the goal of starting to reverse the decline in the population in 2022 before growth should resume in 2030. Yet weeks before the mobilization was announced in September, an internal report drafted for a closed-door meeting showed officials were already concluding those targets were unrealistic.

Citing the consequences of the coronavirus and migration outflows, the report instead proposed a revision that envisaged a decrease of 416,700 people in 2030...

https://fortune.com/2022/10/18/russia-population-historic-decline-emigration-war...

Anger Mounts as Russian Draftees Thrown Into Battle Without Training, Equipment
Anastasia Tenisheva | Oct. 18, 2022

...Mounting evidence of ill-equipped Russian conscripts deployed to Ukraine with almost no military training has sparked bafflement and anger among friends and relatives who spoke to The Moscow Times about the experiences of their loved ones.

...Worried about the lack of military training, relatives of soldiers from western Russia’s Bryansk region published a video appeal to Putin over the weekend, asking the president to intervene to bring their mobilized sons and husbands back home.
{English translation: Residents of the city of Fokino appealed to the Commander-in-Chief of the Russian Federation V.V. Putin for help, as there is complete chaos in the Bryansk region, from the organization of a mobilization commission, the delivery of illegal subpoenas by phone with threats, to the fact that untrained relatives are at the forefront in the front line and ask for help and support.}
6:03 ( https://vk.com/fok32?w=wall-63313588_197321 )

...While there is little evidence that friends and relatives of dead soldiers are ready to take to the streets in protest, anger toward officials appears to be on the rise.

...Putin told reporters Friday that mobilization would run for another two weeks.

Moscow Mayor Sergei Sobyanin said Monday that mobilization in the Russian capital was at an end and any outstanding draft papers would no longer be valid.

But the slowing of the pace of mobilization is likely to be of little comfort to the hundreds of thousands families with loved ones on their way to the front....

https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2022/10/18/anger-mounts-as-russian-draftees-throw...

U.S. has viewed wreckage of kamikaze drones Russia used in Ukraine
Such information could prove crucial in helping the United States and its Ukrainian allies better identify and ultimately defeat the unmanned craft
Shane Harris, Dan Lamothe, Alex Horton and Karen DeYoung
October 20, 2022

...the Iranian drones are bigger, noisier and reportedly easier to shoot down than the tiny Switchblade 300s the U.S. is supplying to Ukraine.

...The Shahed is a large, lumbering aircraft that flies very low and appears to have few metallic parts, making it difficult to detect with radars and other sensors before reaching its target. Examination of the wreckage may help overcome those challenges.

The drones’ points of origin pose another challenge...They are too far for U.S.-supplied rocket artillery to strike, blunting options for destroying the aircraft before they are airborne.

...Iran produces a variety of drones and has reportedly supplied them to Hezbollah in Lebanon and Houthi rebels in Yemen, among other groups...

https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2022/10/20/russia-iran-kamikaze...
-------------------------------------------------

Tadeusz Giczan @TadeuszGiczan | 6:29 AM · Oct 20, 2022:
Belarusian journalist, PhD Researcher @UCLSSEES. Belarus' crony socialism⬜️🟥⬜️ Fellow @cepa. Sufferer of WHUFC⚒️Torpedo Minsk

Fail of the day. A Russian defence ministry expert doesn't realise he is already on air and says: "Just don't ask too much about these Iranian drones. We all know they are Iranian, but the authorities don't want to admit it".

0:30 ( https://twitter.com/TadeuszGiczan/status/1583042663426584578 )

3 ways of looking at Putin’s barbaric escalation against Ukrainian civilians
Russia’s brutal missile attacks on civilians are doomed to backfire. Here’s why Putin launched them anyway.
Daniel Drezner | Updated Oct 17, 2022

...Russia’s missile attacks may have violated international law, alienated longstanding partners, hardened the determination of Ukraine and its allies, and expended scarce munitions without altering the situation on the battlefield. Why did Russia do it?

...Essence of Decision by Graham Allison, a longtime political scientist and sometime US government advisor now at Harvard’s Kennedy School of Government...

...three different levels of analysis: the international, the domestic, and the psychological.

...while bombing civilians seems to have minimal military value, ...if Russia demonstrates that it is unconcerned about the norms and laws governing the use of conventional force, that sends a message that it is likewise unconcerned about the norms and laws governing the use of nuclear weapons.

...a ruler needs to command a winning coalition with the selectorate...three key pillars of support for Putin: “Russian milbloggers and war correspondents, former Russian or proxy officers and veterans, and some of the Russian siloviki — people with meaningful power bases and forces of their own. Putin needs to retain the support of all three of these factions.”

...most humans do not make decisions based on rational choice, but rather use a collection of cognitive shortcuts known as prospect theory. A central tenet of prospect theory is that individuals will be risk-averse when they are winning, and risk-tolerant when they are losing.

...the West should hope Russia’s actions are explained by Putin’s individual psychology. Both the international and domestic explanations suggest that Putin will double down on aggressive actions...

https://www.vox.com/world/2022/10/15/23404708/putin-russia-missile-attack-ukrain...

Part of this is Putin has led his country into an epic catastrophe. Every expectation he had has been wrecked. His land Army is in shambles. They don't have the industry to replace what they've lost and they're likely to lose most or all of the territory that they took by force several years ago. If Trump were still president I'm sure we would not have helped Ukraine and the coalition of European partners in Nato might have been more reluctant as well. Putin has been forced to use whatever draconian measures necessary to quell protests within Russia itself and from this point on his hold on power is probably tenuous. Russia is much more isolated than before and his economy is also reeling. He looks every bit like an old crank who bit off way more than he can chew. What's keeping him in power for the time being is fear.

>79 lriley: Yeah, my uncle was allowed to stay at a mental health hospital in Ontario where his son & daughter worked, while he waited for a spot in longterm care. We visitors were locked in with everybody else, but the patients seemed nice enough, with maybe one or two harmless eccentrics--no doubt we were in a "minimum security" ward? Just to keep patients from wandering and getting hurt themselves? In all her time working at the hospital, his DIL, a nurse, was attacked only once--another woman, also pregnant, pulled her hair. The rule for workers seems to be, though, that you never allow yourself to be cornered--stay on door side when one is in a room with a patient...

>73 margd: the imminent flooding of Kherson...Ru said Ua would bust dam, but Ru apparently mined it.

Viktor Kovalenko @MrKovalenko | 2:55 PM · Oct 20, 2022
Author of the podcast @UkraineDecoded. Former Ukraine's journalist (1988-2016) & military veteran (2014-2015). History aficionado.
https://twitter.com/MrKovalenko/status/1583170011786489857

1/ The retreating Russian forces mined the Kahovska dam across the #Dnipro river that holds a large reservoir, as Zelensky warned. If RAF blows up the dam, up to 80 settlements down the river incl. #Kherson city (that Ukraine is going to liberate) would be flooded. Thread⬇️
Photo dam ( https://twitter.com/MrKovalenko/status/1583170011786489857/photo/1 )

2/ By blowing up the Kakhovska dam to slow down the #Ukrainian offensive on #Kherson, the Russians will shoot themselves in a leg ➡️ the canal Dnipro-Crimea that brings water to the occupied Crimean peninsula may drain as well. (Photo is from social media and illustrative)

3/ By blowing up the Kakhovska dam, the Russians will also drain the large Kakhovski reservoir on the #Dnipro river. It may cause an emergency shutdown of the occupied Zaporizhzhya #nuclear power plant due to lack of water supply for cooling.(Photo is illustrative)

4/ By blowing up the dam on the Dnipro river, Putin's Army may repeat what their grandfathers from Stalin's NKVD did by blowing up the dam in Zaporizhzhya in August 1941. It didn't slow the German offensive. But the flooding killed thousands of #Ukrainians living down the river.

Anton Gerashchenko @Gerashchenko_en | 6:31 AM · Oct 20, 2022
Ukrainian patriot. Advisor to the Minister of Internal Affairs of Ukraine. Founder of the Institute of the Future. Official enemy of Russian propaganda

Instead of a thousand words.
Russians burned V and Z symbols on dog's faces in Kamianka village, Kharkiv region.

Photo
https://twitter.com/Gerashchenko_en/status/1583043175748247552/photo/1
📷: Yulia Khimeryk
_______________________________________

Nate Mook @natemook | 7:26 PM · Oct 20, 2022:
Now: Drinking ☕️ and Supporting 🇺🇦 Board: @AMarch4OurLives
Recent: CEO, @WCKitchen
Past: @HBODocs @WTYSL @TEDTalks @Localist @BetaNews
Side: @TEDxMidAtlantic

I’ve never seen anything like this. Yesterday we installed a displaced pet feeding station in Kramatorsk (with your support!). This morning, the Ukrainian dogs waited in line to eat. 🇺🇦🐕

Photo ( https://twitter.com/natemook/status/1583238219566415872/photo/1 )

Is Russia’s silent majority waking up? (Al Jazeera)

The mobilisation has broken Putin’s longstanding social contract with the Russian population to provide stability and comfort...

Timothy Snyder @TimothyDSnyder | 10:50 AM · Oct 21, 2022:
Levin Professor of History at Yale. Author of "On Tyranny," with 20 new lessons on Ukraine, "Our Malady," "Road to Unfreedom," "Black Earth," and "Bloodlands"

Twenty-two Russian torture chambers discovered thus far in the parts of Kharkiv region liberated last month. Ukrainians don’t want to live under torturers. And so they fight, and so they must win.
----------------------------------------------

22 torture chambers found in liberated Kharkiv Oblast; people were brought to Russia for torture
Thursday, 20 October 2022

...torture chambers were discovered in the settlements of Vovchansk (2), Kupinask (4), Shevchenkove (2), Izium (4), Kozacha Lopan (3), Lyptsi, Velykyi Burluk, Pisky-Radkivski, and Borova.

...police have information about occupiers deporting people to Russia, torturing them there, and then returning them to Ukraine...

https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2022/10/20/7372813/

Recall Estonia's PM on Russian negotiation style: https://twitter.com/MunSecConf/status/1512451999622643714 . I think she would expect RU to be hardnosed until the very end.

ISW @TheStudyofWar | 9:09 PM · Oct 21, 2022:
The Institute for the Study of War is a policy research organization focused on U.S. national security. | press@understandingwar.org

The #Russian withdrawal from western #Kherson Oblast has begun. Russian forces likely intend to continue that withdrawal over the next several weeks but may struggle to withdraw in good order if #Ukrainian forces choose to attack.
http://isw.pub/UkrWar102122

Maps
https://twitter.com/TheStudyofWar/status/1583626480935845890/photo/1
https://twitter.com/TheStudyofWar/status/1583626480935845890/photo/2
https://twitter.com/TheStudyofWar/status/1583626480935845890/photo/3
https://twitter.com/TheStudyofWar/status/1583626480935845890/photo/4

2/ Russian forces will likely attempt to blow up the dam at the Kakhovka Hydroelectric Power Plant (HPP) to cover their withdrawal and to prevent Ukrainian forces from pursuing Russian forces deeper into #Kherson Oblast.
https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessm...

3/ #Putin is setting conditions for #Russia to continue a protracted high-intensity conventional war in #Ukraine, not a negotiated settlement or off-ramp. Instead, he is setting conditions for improved Russian combat capability over the winter and well into 2023.

The information conditions that the Kremlin has set to enable the Kherson withdrawal, the preparations to blow the dam, and the preparations for additional mobilization and conscription all demonstrate that Putin is not seeking offramps in the near term.

4/ Putin signed a decree on October 21 creating a Russian government “coordination council” to "strengthen coordination of federal executive branch organs and the federal subjects’ executive branch organs” during the war in Ukraine.

Its responsibilities include coordinating federal & regional authorities to meet the needs of the military; resolving military supply issues, forming plans to supply the military; defining the volume and direction of the state budget to support the military; among other things.

Putin’s creation of the coordination council is a continuation of Putin’s October 19 declaration of martial law readiness standards, which the Kremlin seeks to use to expand Russian government authorities as a way of further transiting Russia to a wartime footing.

It is a step that Putin need not take if he were seeking to wrap the war up soon or were looking for some sort of off-ramp or pause that he expected to end major combat operations.

The creation of this new coordinating body instead sets conditions for a high level of mobilization of the Russian state, economy, and society for continued high-intensity conventional military operations for the foreseeable future.

Putin continues to show his willingness to pay a high price in domestic discontent to pursue a military resolution of the war he initiated on his terms, showing through his actions no interest in serious concessions or ceasefire negotiations that could lead to sustainable peace.
----------------------------------------------

ISW @TheStudyofWar | 9:11 PM · Oct 21, 2022

Southern Axis Update:
#Ukraine’s Southern Operational Command emphasized that #Russian forces are using Ukrainian civilians as human shields when transporting military equipment across the #Dnipro River. /3
understandingwar.org
Institute for the Study of War

While Putin plays hardball in positioning for any end of the war, US Republicans...

Putin’s Last Hope to Win in Ukraine Is a GOP Victory in November
VLAD’S ALLIES
David Rothkopf | Oct. 21, 2022

Just when Russia on the ropes, Republican leaders are already signaling they’ll cut aid to Ukraine if they win control of Congress...

https://www.thedailybeast.com/putins-last-hope-to-win-in-ukraine-is-a-gop-victor...

Ukraine war: 'I'd rather go to jail than fight in Ukraine', Russian man says (BBC)

"I'm not a pacifist," he explains. "If a country was trying to occupy my Motherland, or commit aggression against Russia, I would go straight to the military enlistment office and sign up, without waiting for my call-up papers. But in this particular case I believe that there is no military threat to my Motherland." "But our Motherland is in danger," one of the officials insists. "My Motherland wasn't in danger before 24 February," replies Mikhail, referring to the date on which Russia invaded Ukraine. Mikhail, 34, is a mechanic. Despite Russia becoming an increasingly authoritarian state, in which civil and human rights have been curtailed, Mikhail argues that the Russian constitution gives him the right to be a conscientious objector. He refuses to fight in Ukraine...

Mick Ryan, AM @WarintheFuture | 12:45 AM · Oct 23, 2022:
Strategist, Leader & Author | Retd Australian Army Major General | @CSIS Adjunct Fellow | IntellectualEdge | @MilWritersGuild ...
https://twitter.com/WarintheFuture/status/1584043380706660353
https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1584043380706660353.html

In the last 48 hours, reports have emerged of a potential Russian withdrawal from its Dnipro west bank defensive positions. While this may fit General Surovikin’s overall strategy for #Ukraine, it will be difficult to execute successfully. 1/24 🧵

...

Ukrainian Memes Forces @uamemesforces | 4:50 AM · Oct 23, 2022

Iranians in Berlin protesting brutality of Iranian Republic
v.
Russians in Berlin protesting brutality of Russian Federation
https://twitter.com/uamemesforces/status/1584104942964731906/photo/1

Julia Davis (The Daily Beast) @JuliaDavisNews | 1:28 AM · Oct 23, 2022

Meanwhile on Russia's state-funded RT, director of broadcasting Anton Krasovsky suggests drowning or burning Ukrainian children, makes hideous comments about the rapes by Russian soldiers in Ukraine, says Ukraine should not exist and Ukrainians who resist Russia should be shot.

3:15 ( https://twitter.com/JuliaDavisNews/status/1584054018145685504 )
---------------------------------------------

Julia Davis @JuliaDavisNews | 5:54 PM · Oct 23, 2022

RT just fired Krasovsky. Too little, too late, in light of their pervasive propaganda that contributed to this war and ongoing promotion of Russia's genocidal invasion.

{magd: a pretty low bar, but at there are some limits!}

Who Deserves a Nobel Peace Prize in Ukraine? (Common Dreams)

In what was described as a harsh rebuke of Russia, the 2022 Nobel Peace Prize was awarded to the Ukrainian human rights organization Center for Civil Liberties, along with Belarusian human rights advocate Ales Bialiatski and the Russian human rights organization Memorial. While at first glance, the Ukrainian Center for Civil Liberties might sound like a group that is well deserving of this honor, Ukrainian peace leader Yurii Sheliazhenko wrote a stinging critique. Sheliazhenko, who heads up the Ukrainian Pacifist Movement and is a board member of the European Bureau for Conscientious Objection, accused the Center for Civil Liberties of embracing the agendas of such problematic international donors as the U.S. Department of State and the National Endowment for Democracy. The National Endowment for Democracy supports NATO membership for Ukraine; insists that no negotiations with Russia are possible and shames those who seek compromise; wants the West to impose a dangerous no-fly zone; says that only Putin violates human rights in Ukraine; never criticizes the Ukrainian government for suppressing pro-Russian media, parties, and public figures; never criticizes the Ukrainian army for war crimes and human rights violations, and refuses to stand up for the human right, recognized under international law, to conscientious objection to military service.

Supporting conscientious objectors is the role of Sheliazhenko and his organization, the Ukrainian Pacifist Movement (UPM). While we hear a lot about Russian war resisters, as Sheliazhenko points out even inside Ukraine, which is portrayed in Western media as a country entirely united in its war with Russia, there are men who don’t want to fight. The Ukrainian Pacifist Movement was founded in 2019 when fighting in the separatist-ruled Donbas region was at a peak and Ukraine was forcing its citizens to participate in the civil war. According to Sheliazhenko, Ukrainian men were “being given military summonses off of the streets, out of night clubs and dormitories, or snatched for military service for minor infractions such as traffic violations, public drunkenness, or casual rudeness to police officers.” To make matters worse, when Russia invaded in February 2022, Ukraine suspended its citizens’ right to conscientious objection and forbade men between the ages of 18 and 60 from leaving the country; nevertheless, since February, over 100,000 Ukrainian draft-eligible men managed to flee instead of fight. It’s estimated that several thousand more have been detained while trying to escape. International human rights law affirms peoples’ right, due to principled conviction, to refuse to participate in military conflict and conscientious objection has a long and rich history...

>28 margd: Touchy Belarusian authorities provoked by a simple act after their assistance in Russia's invasion of Ukraine??

Tadeusz Giczan @TadeuszGiczan | 4:08 PM · Oct 23, 2022:
Belarusian journalist, PhD Researcher @UCLSSEES. Belarus' crony socialism⬜️🟥⬜️ Fellow @cepa. Sufferer of WHUFC⚒️Torpedo Minsk

On the Ukrainian-Belarusian border, Ukrainian border guards raised historic Belarusian white-red-white flags, banned by Lukashenko and used by the opposition. Belarusian state propagandists were so triggered they made a TV report about this 'outrageous provocation'😄

Photos
https://twitter.com/TadeuszGiczan/status/1584275524255617024/photo/1
https://twitter.com/TadeuszGiczan/status/1584275524255617024/photo/2

Mark Hertling @MarkHertling
https://twitter.com/MarkHertling/status/1584330581571051521

The @washingtonpost was one of many reporting on @SecDef call w/ Russian MOD Shoigu.

There isn’t much substance in the reporting, because governments either don’t provide the substance or they skew what they want people to know based on their messaging.1/

Having been on these kinds of contentious calls with foreign counterparts (with less at stake) sometimes it’s just feeling each other out.
The pentagon describing the call with the term “professional” tells me there was little to no significant breakthroughs. 2/

Sec Austin likely provided some pointed but nuanced communication that gave Shoigu pause. And Shoigu was likely testing Austin…and lying.

Remember, Shoigu is corrupt, a crook, a grifter, & is the guy most responsible for how poorly the Russian army is performing. 3/

Austin was my boss in Iraq. I watched him have tough conversations partisans & corrupt officials like Maliki, and hold firm. He keeps his cards close & he provides the right messages with no potential for misinterpreting what he’s saying. 4/

Add to that, he’s an official with exceedingly strong values. He holds to his beliefs, and he doesn’t suffer fools. He’s articulate, forceful and his integrity is beyond reproach.

He knows what right looks like. 5/

Given GEN Milley hasn’t connected with GEN Gerasimov (that we know of) in many months & Blinken doesn’t trust Lavrov & Biden has made his thoughts known about Putin (& shouldn’t be talking to him like some EU leaders have), it’s good that @secdef
is reached out. 6/

But however forceful SEC Austin was, it will likely make little difference when Shoigu reports to Putin, as he alone is the decider who doesn’t seem open to influence.

This is simply an attempt to avoid further miscalculations & dumb moves on Russia’s part.

Hope it works. 7/

Phillips P. OBrien @PhillipsPOBrien | 10:11 AM · Oct 23, 2022:
Professor of Strategic Studies, @univofstandrews, Author: How the War was Won, and Second Most Powerful Man in the World. Editor in Chief, War in History
https://twitter.com/PhillipsPOBrien/status/1584185748269387777

...the week in the Russo-Ukraine war can be divided into two areas, the attacks on Ukrainian power supply and the situation on the front line particularly near Kherson.

...the Russian campaign using air assets to target Ukrainian power generation...are clearly having some kind of impact on Ukrainian power generation, and there are stories of Ukraine have power outages and blackouts.

This is something to watch, because it does represent a very different use of airpower from the first part of the Russian air campaign, which seemed to be indiscriminate attacks on Ukrainian cities. That is counterproductive in a war making sense.

There has been some confusion that this means all airpower attacks behind the lines are counterproductive--and that is not true. Strategic Airpower, starting in WWII, could be very effective when it was directed towards the economic war making powers of the Axis countries.

In this way, this Russian air campaign against Ukrainian power is potentially one of the more effective efforts that they have made in this war. Cutting power does impact war fighting, and will divert Ukrainian resources.

It is worth noting that recently this has led to an increase in anti-air support for Ukraine, including from Germany. Will be important for Ukraine that more of such support comes through.

The Russian campaign seems based on the hope that they can now stymie Ukraine through the rest of the winter, while the Russians try to build up a new conscript army. The Ukrainians, however, do seem to want to make at least one more major effort before the winter hits.

The situation at Kherson is definitely worth watching, as @WarintheFuture {Mick Ryan} has tweeted about.

Ive been saying for a while that it would make sense for the Russians to pull back over the Dnipro to try and protect their forces to ride out the winter. It would provide them a better defensive position.
Map ( https://twitter.com/PhillipsPOBrien/status/1568971589827579906/photo/1 )

Of course, politically its a big loss for the Russians, as Kherson is the largest city they have captured and the capital of the oblast which has been illegally annexed. So right now there seems to be conflicting evidence of their intentions.

The thing to watch on the front line is whether Ukraine will try something somewhere other than Kherson. Certainly with the way the war has developed, they would have an impetus to keep pressing somewhere before the winter.
Map ( https://twitter.com/TheStudyofWar/status/1583997027251146752/photo/1 )

So overall, a week again of not much change on the battlefield. Some signs that the Russians are thinking about using airpower in more effective ways, some signs that the Russian position in Kherson is in trouble.

And maybe the biggest question is what the Ukrainian high command feels it can attempt before the onset of bad weather....

Anton Gerashchenko @Gerashchenko_en | 5:58 AM · Oct 24, 2022:
https://twitter.com/Gerashchenko_en/status/1584484582858010625

Russian propagandists openly said they are planning to take away all cultural values they could from occupied Kherson - museum exhibits, monuments, theater assets, library books etc...
---------------------------------

Occupiers steal monuments to Suvorov and Ushakov when fleeing Kherson
24 October 2022

The Russian occupiers have dismantled monuments to Russian generals Oleksandr Suvorov* and Fedor Ushakov** in Kherson and taken them with them as they fled the city

Details: The Russians have explained that they stole the monuments in order to "preserve unique artworks from shelling by the Ukrainian Armed Forces."

A bust of Suvorov was installed in Kherson in 1950 to mark the 150th anniversary of his death.

A statue of Admiral Ushakov was installed in 1957 near the building of the Kherson State Maritime Academy on the avenue of the same name...

https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2022/10/24/7373217/

* https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alexander_Suvorov
** https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fyodor_Ushakov

>100 John5918: Personally the best reason that I can think of for engagement in a war is your country actually under attack on its own soil. I can see that from my own perspective anyway but that's just me. It's kind of been a goal of mine though to get through my life without murdering anybody.....and IMO even on religious grounds just because the pope, bishop or your religious leader of choice decides it's okay because it's time of war it doesn't change the fact that once you've shot and killed someone or blown them up you've murdered them and no matter what they were up to. That said they may leave you no choice dependent on what they are up to and by making it personal but even so. But I can see the pacifist conscientious objector angle anyway because if someone can avoid doing that it's probably the best thing.

German gas storages at 97% capacity and increasing. When Russia was in control of our storage capacities Putin deliberately decreased the flow. Due to that we were at 72% last year at the same time, the prelude of the open war in Ukraine. No more and never, Vlad!#Ukraine #Germany

Graph
https://twitter.com/Tendar/status/1584502008316252160/photo/1

- (((Tendar))) @Tendar | 7:08 AM · Oct 24, 2022

Kharkiv has its own graveyard for all the Russian missiles dropped on the city, containing over 5000 elements. These mainly include Grad, Uragan, Smerch and S-300 remains.

2:18 ( https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1584687616104202241 )

- Dmitri @wartranslated | 7:25 PM · Oct 24, 2022

House Democrats withdraw letter urging Biden to negotiate with Russia – live

Letter was drafted months ago and ‘released by staff without vetting’, says Pramila Jayapal

Martin Pengelly | 25 Oct 2022

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/live/2022/oct/25/trump-documents-aides-testi...

Anton Gerashchenko @Gerashchenko_en | 2:45 PM · Oct 25, 2022:
Ukrainian patriot. Advisor to the Minister of Internal Affairs of Ukraine. Founder of the Institute of the Future. Official enemy of Russian propaganda

Russian propagandists admit they aren't really advancing by land.

They say Kyiv needs to be forced (through the West) to negotiate.

Is Russian TV preparing their population?

1:03 ( https://twitter.com/Gerashchenko_en/status/1584979494976524290 )

Francis Scarr @francis_scarr | 2:35 PM · Oct 25, 2022

Pundit Viktor Olevich isn't buying the dirty bomb allegations being levelled by Moscow against Kyiv

"Russia initiated the special military operation and for eight months has been unable to win... and at the same time, it's complaining that its adversaries do not believe it"

1:15 ( https://twitter.com/francis_scarr/status/1584976926678347777 )
---------------------------------------------------

T Khan @TKhan77777
It is refreshing to hear someone in the Russian media discuss this issue in such a rational way. I hope Viktor Olevich does not die for his statements because new leaders like him will be needed in what remains of a future Russian state.

Get a brand new Lada if your son dies! Russian TV boasts of the compensation benefits for families of soldiers killed in Ukraine by showing parents with a new car
Jack Newman | 19 July 2022

Russian soldier Alexei Malov, 31, died in the early days of the invasion of Ukraine
State TV showed how his parents bought a new car with the 'coffin money'
The Kremlin is offering up to £105,000 to the families of dead troops

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-11028281/Russian-TV-boasts-compensation...
______________________________________

Surely most Russian families would prefer Russia spend that money up front training and supplying their sons??

0:39 ( https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1585036929917423616 In Russian, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=L_yNkM4_qXM )

A REUTERS SPECIAL REPORT
Abandoned Russian base holds secrets of retreat in Ukraine
MARI SAITO, MARIA TSVETKOVA and ANTON ZVEREV | Oct. 26, 2022

When Russian troops fled the Ukrainian town of Balakliia last month, they left behind thousands of documents that detail the inner workings of the Russian war machine...

https://www.reuters.com/investigates/special-report/ukraine-crisis-russia-base/

Could this be Putin's "off-ramp"? Blame Ukraine for explosion at Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant: don't want your contaminated land anyway?

Ukraine alleges Russian dirty bomb deception at nuke plant
AP | 25 Oct. 2022

...Energoatom, the Ukrainian state enterprise that operates the country’s four nuclear power plants, said Russian forces have carried out secret construction work over the last week at the occupied Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant* in Ukraine.

...Russian officers controlling the area won’t give access to Ukrainian staff running the plant or monitors from the U.N.’s atomic energy watchdog that would allow them to see what the Russians are doing, Energoatom said Tuesday in a statement.

Energoatom said it “assumes” the Russians “are preparing a terrorist act using nuclear materials and radioactive waste stored at” the plant. It said there were 174 containers at the plant’s dry spent fuel storage facility, each of them containing 24 assemblies of spent nuclear fuel.

“Destruction of these containers as a result of explosion will lead to a radiation accident and radiation contamination of several hundred square kilometers (miles) of the adjacent territory,” the company said.

It called on the International Atomic Energy Agency to assess what was going on.

The U.N. Security Council held closed-door consultations Tuesday about the dirty-bomb allegations at Russia’s request.

Russia’s U.N. Ambassador Vassily Nebenzia sent a five-page letter to council members before the meeting claiming that according to the Russian Ministry of Defense, Ukraine’s Institute for Nuclear Research of the National Academy of Sciences in Kyiv and Vostochniy Mining and Processing Plant “have received direct orders from (President Volodymyr) Zelenskyy’s regime to develop such a dirty bomb” and “the works are at their concluding stage.”

...Britain’s deputy U.N. ambassador James Kariuki told reporters after the meeting that “we’ve seen and heard no new evidence” and the U.K., France and the U.S. made clear “this is a transparently false allegation” and “pure Russian misinformation.” He said, “Ukraine has been clear it’s got nothing to hide” and “IAEA inspectors are on the way.”...

https://apnews.com/article/russia-ukraine-kyiv-sergei-shoigu-climate-and-environ...

* https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/8/11/what-happens-if-ukraines-zaporizhzhia-n...

Julia Davis (The Daily Beast) @JuliaDavisNews | 3:02 PM · Oct 26, 2022

Meanwhile in the Russian media:
{Pres of Guinea informed Pres of Ukraine that President of Russia is ready for negotiations}
https://twitter.com/JuliaDavisNews/status/1585346174172954627/photo/1

Russian Army’s Quiet Fatal Flaw: No Sergeants
Jeff Stein | 26 Oct 2022

Issues of corruption, poor logistics and inept leadership overshadow a critical hole in the Russian lines: Few NCOs to keep the troops fighting...

https://www.spytalk.co/p/russian-armys-quiet-fatal-flaw-no

Francis Scarr @francis_scarr | 12:56 PM · Oct 27, 2022:

There aren't many things less funny than Vladimir Putin attempting to joke about nuclear war

0:28 ( https://twitter.com/francis_scarr/status/1585676915691687941 )

As invasion of Ukraine continues, western nations need to tax war profiteers’ windfalls (Guardian)

Households and businesses hit by higher prices caused by the conflict should be helped by companies that have benefited...

"a guy called Vasili Arkhipov saved the world"
...historian Arthur M. Schlesinger Jr, "this was not only the most dangerous moment of the Cold War. It was the most dangerous moment in human history."...

Dr David Robert Grimes @drg1985 | 2:52 AM · Oct 27, 2022:
Cancer researcher, physicist, scoundrel. Author of #TheIrrationalApe / #GoodThinking.
https://twitter.com/drg1985/status/1585524746799796224

60 years ago today on the 27th October 1962, human life on Earth came the closest it has ever come to a terrible ending. Everyone alive today owes their life to this handsome devil, and most of us don't even know his name. Let's change that - a thread 🧵
Photo of Vasili Arkhipov
https://twitter.com/drg1985/status/1585524746799796224/photo/1

...Soviet submarine B- 59 had been detected by the US Navy, diving too deep to communicate with the outside world. Pursued by a US aircraft carrier & 11 destroyers, the B- 59 crew had been unable to contact Moscow for days. No one aboard knew if war had begun nor how to proceed

...Attempting to force B-59 to surface, the Americans dropped depth charges, unsurprisingly interpreted as raw aggression.

...The commander (Vasili Arkhipov) was...no stranger to pressure. Only the year before, he served on the K- 19 submarine, when its nuclear reactor coolant system failed. To stave off a nuclear meltdown, Arkhipov & the crew had improvised a secondary coolant system & narrowly averted disaster...This K-19 incident was infamous throughout the Soviet navy, & Arkhipov’s courage was widely known and deeply respected...

...he contended) that launching the T- 5 meant total nuclear war was inevitable. To do so without complete information was the height of madness, he argued; instead, he urged that they surface and re- establish communication with Moscow.

...Arkhipov won his colleagues over. By that stage the White House had become aware of the North Atlantic chase, ordering B-59 be allowed return to the USSR unmolested. It was only much later before either Moscow or Washington realised how close to destruction we had come

...Now, with Putin's nuclear threats, we might be forgiven for a sense of déjà vu. I only hope that if history strives to repeat itself, that new heroes of reason like Arkhipov and Petrov* arise to ensure that critical thought never becomes afterthought. This, we can only hope...

___________________________________

Dr David Robert Grimes @drg1985 | 2:47 PM · Sep 26, 2019:
https://twitter.com/drg1985/status/1177293537097998338

Today, 36 years ago, life on Earth almost ended. Only an insistence on critical thinking by a brave, unsung Russian saved all life on Earth. That man was Stanislav Petrov - here's an extract from the prologue of my book, The Irrational Ape, on why we all owe him our lives..

Text excerpts
https://twitter.com/drg1985/status/1177293537097998338/photo/1
https://twitter.com/drg1985/status/1177293537097998338/photo/2
https://twitter.com/drg1985/status/1177293537097998338/photo/3

Photo of Stanislav Petrov
https://twitter.com/drg1985/status/1177293537097998338/photo/4

>118 margd: though I didn’t remember his name I’ve read the story about Petrov at least a couple of times. He kept his cool under intense pressure and it goes to show there are very good people who live in Russia and pretty much everywhere……even in the worst of times. There was a Nazi doctor who appalled at atrocities the Japanese were committing in China during WWII risked all his ambitions and saved a lot of lives there. Sometimes you have to see things to act and even act against your very firmly held beliefs.

I don’t remember hearing of the submarine incident. Sounds like the Soviet commander of the ship was a good guy too and that President Kennedy backed off.

>119 lriley: Though I could sense the tension at home during the Cuban missile crisis, my dad regarded USSR military as professional, if an adversary. Not sure he'd assess their Russian successors similarly...

(Hopefully more than a few straight-thinking folks on our side, too, who would not act on incomplete or conflicting or non-compelling information. Having had 4 years of Trump, one appreciates all the safety measures in place. Trust they are enough.)

>120 margd: one of my main fears if Trump were to reattain the Presidency is he would purge the Milley's and put in a bunch of Flynn's. There is little doubt in my mind that he would try to set in place in the military and secret services and homeland security people who would support that aim and create a dictatorship/police state. Now should that happen if Putin were still in place I'm sure that friendship would be renewed to the disadvantage of our European allies. China might be a different story however. Would a DeSantis or Cruz, Hawley, Paul do similar? It wouldn't shock me. The Republican Party on the whole has and is distancing itself exponentially from democratic norms. That's not to say that there aren't a lot of assholes in the Democratic Party and I'm not a fan of a lot of them but they've stuck to the norms....they accept their losses for instance when they happen even those times when things have looked a little dodgy.

The United States throws a lot into their military and military industrial and military contractor budget. Last I knew it was 50+. This comes at the expense of social and infrastructure projects. The United States tends to keep up with their logistic issues. The United States is also very much into training and specialization of their troops. Initial boot camps are usually two months and can be longer. Part of the idea is to reinvent psychologies of their recruits. They also focus more these days on recruiting high school team oriented recruits. People already possessing that rah-rah mentality are more malleable to being team oriented. Studies have been done that show that really about 2% of the population can shoot and kill somebody....go to bed the same night and wake up the next morning and eat a hearty breakfast without a care in the world. Those studies were probably done before the plethora of stay in your bedroom playing video war games all day though. Even so breaking down individuals to get them through at least the initial stages of combat related issues has always been a focus since at least Korea and as we've seen many of those who get out are traumatized individuals anyway. The specialization stuff happens after boot camp and can take months or even years of a person's enlistment. The United States as well makes an attempt to keep up with innovation for both sailors and the equipment they use. We also have a lot more capacity for replacing and maintaining armor, aircraft and Naval.

Similar to the Russians however we do have a lot of bureaucratic and politicized military generals, colonels, officer staff without real combat experience apart from clawing their way up the D.C. political ladder. I do believe Flynn has his fair share of combat experience but he is an example (and there are plenty) who would further his political ambitions at any cost.

Just because someone has served or seen combat in any capacity does not make them heroes. It's not right what happened to a lot of those who returned from Vietnam and got grief from the public at large. On the same token it's not right or smart to make these people out to be special just because they have. They are for the most part ordinary and every day average and mostly younger people. GI bills and helping them to find employment or living up to getting them the citizenships you promised when you recruited them is fine as well as the medical or psychological help they might need.

>119 lriley: I didn't know about the Nazi doctor in China but there was a businessman - John Rabe - who organized the "International Safety Zone" in Nanking within which all unarmed Chinese were guaranteed safety - this by virtue of Germany's pact with Japan. He faced down the Japanese with nothing but sheer guts and the estimate is he saved around a quarter of a million people. He's considered the Oscar Schindler of China. There's a pretty good book about him titled The Good Man of Nanking. Because of his isolation he didn't know what was going on in Germany and when he returned and made his report to Hitler he was arrested by the Gestapo - he survived the war.

>121 lriley: Flynn's behavior sort of reminds me of General Edwin Walker. In The Glory and the Dream pp. 806 Manchester states "The officer responsible for this impressive display {of military discipline, control, and defense of civil liberties}, the 101st's commander, was Major General Edwin Walker. Later he was retired for circulating John Birch Society material among his men; later still he was on the wrong side in a racial incident and was arrested. He retired in Dallas, where he flew the American flag upside down. In Little Rock his conduct was above reproach,"

>121 lriley: There's a must-watch documentary on Flynn from Frontline, out a few days back. An Irish Catholic from Rhode Island waging holy war? Fuck me! That is a very, very dangerous man. https://www.pbs.org/wgbh/frontline/documentary/michael-flynns-holy-war/

Anton Gerashchenko @Gerashchenko_en | 9:19 AM · Oct 28, 2022:
Ukrainian patriot. Advisor to the Minister of Internal Affairs of Ukraine. Founder of the Institute of the Future. Official enemy of Russian propaganda

Nebenzya* reports: American combat mosquitoes are in Ukraine already!

Probably through Lend-Lease?

It will be a little boring in the UN without Nebenzya...

1:07 ( https://twitter.com/Gerashchenko_en/status/1585984478173954048 )

* Vasily Alekseyevich Nebenzya is a Russian diplomat and the current Permanent Representative of Russia to the United Nations

>122 alco261: I think it was Rabe who I was thinking of.

Anton Gerashchenko @Gerashchenko_en | 4:10 AM · Oct 29, 2022:
Ukrainian patriot. Advisor to the Minister of Internal Affairs of Ukraine. Founder of the Institute of the Future. Official enemy of Russian propaganda

Explosions in Sevastopol harbor last night.

According to some sources, several Russian warships of the Black Sea Fleet were blown up - including a fregate and a landing ship.

0:16 ( https://twitter.com/Gerashchenko_en/status/1586269146693926912 )

The Kyiv Independent @KyivIndependent | 4:35 AM · Oct 29, 2022:

⚡️High-ranking Wagner officer killed by Ukrainian special forces in close combat.

Ukrainian special forces unit "Khort" reported that it had killed the deputy chief of staff of the Russian state-backed military company Wagner.
_____________________________________

https://www.ukrinform.net/rubric-ato/3603505-khort-special-unit-fighters-elimina...

>124 margd: What does this mean?

>128 aspirit: I think weaponized mosquitoes is latest twist on Russia's old claim that the West is deploying biological weapons, in this case weaponized mosquitoes? With climate warming I suspect pathogens are working their way north in Black Sea area as they are in North America (?), so sooner or later Russia will have a victim to prove their claim? Maybe use release of genetically manipulated mosquitoes in Keys as evidence? Weaponized / combat mosquitoes etc. are becoming a meme for Ukrainians mocking Ru claims.
______________________________________________

>126 margd: contd. Hope grain shipment agreement not jeopardized by Ru pique....

Anton Gerashchenko @Gerashchenko_en | 8:22 AM · Oct 29, 2022:
Ukrainian patriot. Advisor to the Minister of Internal Affairs of Ukraine. Founder of the Institute of the Future. Official enemy of Russian propaganda

Russian MoD blamed British specialists for training 🇺🇦 military to prepare them for today's attack on Sevastopol

They added that the same specialists were guilty of explosions on NS1 and NS2 (Balic gas line)

Tune into next briefings to find out what else 🇬🇧, 🇺🇸 & combat mosquitoes are guilty of

1:38 ( https://twitter.com/Gerashchenko_en/status/1586332708220784640

Anton Gerashchenko @Gerashchenko_en | 10:06 AM · Oct 29, 2022

General Lapin*, allegedly installed by Gerasimov** and Shoigu***, has been dismissed from all his positions in Russia.

He was systematically attacked by Kadyrov and Prigozhin.

Let the murderers fight and destroy each other.

Photo Gen. Lapin ( https://twitter.com/Gerashchenko_en/status/1586358829792382976/photo/1 )

---------------------------------------------------
* Aleksandr Pavlovich Lapin (Russian: Александр Павлович Лапин; born 1 January 1964) is a Russian army officer who has been the commander of the Central Military District since 22 November 2017... He was promoted to the rank of colonel general in 2019.

He is the commander of the Army Group "Center" of the Russian Army Forces in the 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine (Wikipedia)

** Vasilyevich Gerasimov (...born 8 September 1955) is a Russian General of the Army, the current Chief of the General Staff (Wikipedia)

*** Sergei Kuzhugetovich Shoigu (...born 21 May 1955) is a Russian politician who has served as the minister of defence of Russia since 2012. Shoigu has served as the chairman of the Council of Ministers of Defense of the Commonwealth of Independent States since 2012. (Wikipedia)

>129 margd: So Russian war supporters might be expected to believe that weaponized mosquitoes will attack (invading) Russians while not considering how well-supplied soldiers (more likely the Ukrainians than Russians at this point) should be already warding off bloodsuckers that carry naturally evolved diseases...? This would come across as if they're playing a poor victim of super sophisticated technology that's beyond the understanding of Russian researchers, scientists, engineers when the actual message is they don't expect to give the Russians pushed into Ukraine basic insect repellents, nevermind more advanced defenses.

It's like they broadcasting in their attempts at blame how pathetic the government Russia is.

I have to question how much covid-brain fog has degraded mental processing in some of these war propagandists.

>126 margd: >129 margd: contd.

Take THAT, starving children...

Anton Gerashchenko @Gerashchenko_en | 11:00 AM · Oct 29, 2022:

⚡️Russia stops its participation in the grain deal (that allowed to deliver Ukrainian grain by sea) after "Ukrainian attack in the Black Sea", - Russian MoD.

Russia decided to go back to food blackmail and food terrorism.

ETA:
Russia is suspending a Ukraine grain export deal that has helped keep food prices down
Charles Maynes | October 29, 2022
https://www.npr.org/2022/10/29/1132608672/russia-says-it-is-suspending-a-grain-e...
------------------------------------------------------

Samuel Ramani @SamRamani2 | 10:48 AM · Oct 29, 2022:

BREAKING: Russia plans to take its accusations of British involvement in the Nord Stream leak and Black Sea Fleet attacks to the UN Security Council

Hope these guys stay away from windows!

Julia Davis (Daily Beast) @JuliaDavisNews | 12:31 PM · Oct 29, 2022:

Meanwhile in Russia: several panelists threw some truth grenades at the stunned TV hosts, look how those angry propagandists pummeled the pundit who said that by destroying the infrastructure, Russia is waging a cruel, sadistic war against civilians. He won't be invited back.

5:56 ( https://twitter.com/JuliaDavisNews/status/1586395220476039168 )

Mick Ryan, AM @WarintheFuture | 8:30 PM · Oct 29, 2022:
Strategist, Leader & Author | Retd Australian Army Major General | @CSIS Adjunct Fellow | IntellectualEdge | @MilWritersGuild...
https://twitter.com/WarintheFuture/status/1586515730820141057

More details are emerging about the Ukrainian attack on Russia’s Black Sea Fleet in occupied Crimea. Lots more clarity to come in the following days, but a few immediate observations are possible. 1/20 🧵 #Sevastopol

Quote Tweet
James Waterhouse @JamWaterhouse · 17h
Unbelievable footage from one of the marine drones used in the attack on Russia’s Black Sea Fleet in Sevastopol.
0:47 ( https://twitter.com/JamWaterhouse/status/1586358395933970433 )
(Via Ukrainian journalist Andriy Tsaplienko)
Full story: https://bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-63437212

2/ First, it is clear that #Ukraine’s ability to target Russian forces continues to expand beyond the battlefield. Operational and strategic targets are now in their sights, underpinned by good intelligence and long range strike tools like #HIMSRS and maritime drones.

3/ This will place even more stress on a Russian military that is struggling to hold its ground in the areas of #Ukraine they have occupied. Mobilized troops will be little help in preventing the kind of attacks that just occurred in #Sevastopol

4/ Second, Ukraine continues to focus on military targets in these operational and strategic strikes. With these #Sevastopol strikes, Ukraine is degrading the capacity of the Russians to launch sea-based missiles at Ukraine.

5/ Ukraine is also sending the message to Russia, as well as Ukraine’s supporters in the west, that Ukraine is fighting against the Russian military and NOT the Russian people. This is important strategic messaging.

6/ Third, the Ukrainian cost-benefit analysis for this attack would have considered whether Russia would stop grain exports as a result. But, once again, the strategic messaging of Russia doing so is all bad for Russia.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/10/29/russia-ukraine-war-latest-update...

7/ Fourth, this attack again shows how adaptive the Ukrainians are. They have rapidly developed a new maritime strike capability, adding to their growing long range strike arsenal.

Ukraine’s New Weapon To Strike Russian Navy In Sevastopol
A previously unreported drone boat, known as a USV (uncrewed surface vessel), appears to have slipped past Russian Navy patrols. The device was found on a beach close to the major Russian Navy base of Sevastopol in Crimea.
H I Sutton 21 Sep 2022
https://www.navalnews.com/naval-news/2022/09/ukraines-new-weapon-to-strike-russi...

8/ Importantly, Ukraine has integrated this new weapon into their operational and strategic strike concepts. Having a new weapon is good; being able to cleverly integrate it into military warfighting concepts is the acme of military effectiveness.

9/ Fifth, Ukraine is serious about taking back its territory in #Crimea. President @ZelenskaUA has spoken about his several times in the past. These strikes are slowly corroding Russian military capacity in Crimea, and force Russia to look at its force deployment priorities.

10/ Here is a speech he gave on this topic recently:
https://www.president.gov.ua/en/news/povernennya-ukrayinskogo-prapora-v-krim-ozn...

11/ Sixth, once again the Russians are showing that they are not taking their adversary seriously. The Ukrainians have previously attacked #Sevastopol with a drone, as well as other targets in Crimea.

12/ And, the Russians knew Ukraine has been developing this capability. It has been in the open press. Where did the Russians think they were going to use it?

13/ Therefore the Russian inability to adapt quickly to such overt and obvious threats is yet another indication of their sloppy professionalism and inability to conceive that they are fighting a Ukrainian military that is a world class military institution.

14/ Seventh and finally, both sides are increasingly resorting to remotely operated or autonomous systems in their operational and strategic strikes. {margd: isn't this how war was fought in Nineteen Eighty-Four?}

15/ While both sides have used UAVs {unmanned aerial vehicle, drone} for recon, surveillance and tactical strike throughout the war, the Russian use of Iranian drones and Ukraine’s use of maritime drones at #Sevastopol is a broadening of their use. @SamBendett is an expert on this topic.

16/ These systems, while cheaper to procure than crewed systems or more sophisticated missiles, still require good intelligence for targeting and post-strike assessment however. This element of long-range strike is not cheap and takes a lot of effort to develop.

17/ Both sides will have to invest even more in counter-drone and counter-autonomy systems. The object is to reduce the cost and manpower requirement of such systems so they are cheaper than the drones they destroy.

18/ As such, the war in Ukraine will be a testbed for these counter-drone systems, in all domains, as a ‘cost imposition’ capability.

19/ Anyway, these are just some very initial thoughts on the implications of the strike on #Sevastopol. We are sure to learn much more in the coming days. End.
Fanciful imagery ( https://twitter.com/WarintheFuture/status/1586515795848626176/photo/1 )

20/ Thanks to those whose images or work was used in this thread: @CovertShores @SamBendett @washingtonpost @DavidARader @JamWaterhouse

21/ A terrific summary here from @SamBendett on the attack as well.
https://twitter.com/SamBendett/status/1586457695569182720

Samuel Ramani @SamRamani2 | 8:12 AM · Oct 30, 2022:
DPhil/PhD Intl Relations @UniofOxford, Assoc Fellow @RUSI_org, Bylines @ForeignPolicy, WaPo etc , 3 forthcoming books HurstPublishers

BREAKING: Russia has detonated the Krasna Bridge in Luhansk Oblast

Luhansk Governor Serhiy Haidai claims that Russia has taken this step out of fear of the Ukrainian counter-offensive's growing momentum in Luhansk

Russian forces established a pontoon bridge west of Severodonetsk in late April as it prepared for a ground assault on the city

BREAKING: Turkey, Ukraine and the UN reach an agreement to move 16 ships under the Black Sea grain export deal

This is further proof that the Joint Coordination Center in Istanbul is functioning normally despite Russia's withdrawal from the grain export deal

- Samuel Ramani @SamRamani2 | 8:09 PM · Oct 30, 2022:
DPhil/PhD Intl Relations @UniofOxford, Assoc Fellow @RUSI_org, Bylines @ForeignPolicy, WaPo etc. 3 forthcoming books HurstPublishers
___________________________________________

⚡️40 Russian cruise missiles on Ukraine this morning.

- Anton Gerashchenko @Gerashchenko_en | 2:20 AM · Oct 31, 2022
Ukrainian patriot. Advisor to the Minister of Internal Affairs of Ukraine. Founder of the Institute of the Future. Official enemy of Russian propaganda
___________________________________________
ETA:

Samuel Ramani @SamRamani2 | 5:37 PM · Oct 30, 2022:

BREAKING: Russia shells Nikopol from Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant. A gas pipeline and 10 high-rises and private residences have been damaged.

Russia continues its policy of using Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant as a launchpad for attacks on Dnipropetrovsk

Russia also struck power substations in Enerhodar where ZNPP {Zaporizhzhya Nuclear Power Plant} was located, which left large sections of the town without electricity

Samuel Ramani @SamRamani2 | 10:48 AM · Oct 31, 2022:

BREAKING: Norway will place its military at a higher level of alert

Norway deployed troops to guard offshore platforms and onshore facilities after the Nord Stream leak

Norway will now strengthen its security in a more systematic fashion from tomorrow

Samuel Ramani @SamRamani2 | 8:46 AM · Oct 31, 2022:

Russian state media warns that Finns are dying of cold due to severing ties with Russia

Russia's information war against Finland ramps up as NATO membership draws closer
------------------------------------------------------

elaintahra 🇫🇮 @elainTahra | 8:49 AM · Oct 31, 2022:
Helsinki here, central heating working normal as ever. No one is dying

Samuel Ramani @SamRamani2 | 12:39 PM · Oct 31, 2022:

BREAKING: Russia has reportedly fired at a civilian barge transporting grain near Ochakiv

Russia is unable to use its naval power to carry out an air tight blockade, as Turkey is pushing for exports of grain so instead it is resorting to sabotage
---------------------------------------------------

Hromadske Int. @Hromadske | 12:16 PM · Oct 31, 2022:

Russians fired at civilian tugboats transporting a barge with grain near Ochakiv, the Operational Command “South” reported. Two crew members were killed, and one with injuries was rescued. The fate of another one is not yet known.

>134 margd: contd. UK accused of helping organize Sevastopol attack.
Now, Canada.

Samuel Ramani @SamRamani2 | 10:53 AM · Oct 31, 2022:

Canada is in the crossfire of Russia's narratives about the Sevastopol attack

Russia alleges that Canadian-made navigation modules were used in shot-down UAVs

Oligarch renounces Russian citizenship over Ukraine war (Guardian)

The billionaire banker and entrepreneur Oleg Tinkov has renounced his Russian citizenship because of the conflict in Ukraine, which he has previously criticised. “I have taken the decision to exit my Russian citizenship. I can’t and won’t be associated with a fascist country that started a war with their peaceful neighbour and killing innocent people daily,” Tinkov said. “I hope more prominent Russian businessmen will follow me, so it weakens Putin’s regime and his economy, and put him eventually to defeat”...

>117 John5918:

Biden accuses oil companies of ‘war profiteering’ and threatens windfall tax (Guardian)

A week out from US midterm elections, president pleads with energy firms to invest profits in lowering costs for American consumers...

🇺🇦 Ukraine Weapons Tracker @UAWeapons | 4:41 PM · Oct 31, 2022:

#Russia: A video surfaced allegedly showing the planting of explosive charges on a Russian Ka-52 helicopter by a saboteur on Veretye Air Base, Pskov Oblast - according to Russian media two helicopters there were damaged due to unknown explosions at 30th October.
1:17 ( https://twitter.com/UAWeapons/status/1587182889002827780 )

Though we can't completely confirm the authenticity of the video, the Ukrainian army has never captured 3 Ka-52 helicopters which makes it impossible for this video to be filmed somewhere on Ukrainian-controlled territory.

Anton Gerashchenko @Gerashchenko_en | 2:49 PM · Oct 31, 2022
Ukrainian patriot. Advisor to the Minister of Internal Affairs of Ukraine. Founder of the Institute of the Future. Official enemy of Russian propaganda

Seminary students in Ternopil singing Red Viburnum in the Meadow, a song that has become symbolic for Ukrainians in the war.

0:49 ( https://twitter.com/Gerashchenko_en/status/1587154887896449028 )
📽: bo.gresko
___________________________________

In the meadow, there a red kalyna, has bent down low ,
For some reason, our glorious Ukraine, has been worried so.
And we’ll take that red kalyna and we will raise it up,
And we, our glorious Ukraine, shall, hey – hey, cheer up – and rejoice!
And we’ll take that red kalyna and we will raise it up,
And we, our glorious Ukraine, shall, hey – hey, cheer up – and rejoice!

–Oh, the Red Viburnum in the Meadow, Ukrainian Folk Song

The song’s title translates as Oh, the Red Viburnum in the Meadow. It was written in 1914 to honor the Sich Riflemen, a Ukrainian military unit that fought in WW I. The red viburnum or kalyna berry referenced in the song is a national symbol of Ukraine, representing the blood roots and connection to the homeland. The red viburnum is also known as the highbush cranberry though it is not related to the bog or lowbush cranberry....

https://redtreetimes.com/2022/03/09/oh-the-red-viburnum-in-the-meadow/

Russia is ready to return to "grain deal" and allow bringing grain out of Ukraine if Kyiv guarantees the safety of the Black Sea Fleet in Crimea, - Russian media

- Anton Gerashchenko @Gerashchenko_en | 7:54 AM · Nov 1, 2022:
Ukrainian patriot. Advisor to the Minister of Internal Affairs of Ukraine. Founder of the Institute of the Future. Official enemy of Russian propaganda

Samuel Ramani @SamRamani2 | 8:02 AM · Nov 1, 2022:
DPhil/PhD Intl Relations @UniofOxford, Assoc Fellow @RUSI_org, Bylines @ForeignPolicy, WaPo etc

BREAKING: The U.S. will supply Ukraine with 2 NASAMS* in the "very near future"

These NASAM deliveries will be part of a package of 8 that the US will send to Ukraine

The VAMPIRE** counter-unmanned aerial system will also be part of US arms packages to Ukraine
-------------------------------------------------------

* NASAMS (Norwegian Advanced Surface-to-Air Missile System, also known as the National Advanced Surface-to-Air Missile System) is a distributed and networked short- to medium-range: 4  ground-based air defense system developed by Kongsberg Defence & Aerospace (KDA) and Raytheon. The system defends against unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs), helicopters, cruise missiles, unmanned combat aerial vehicles (UCAVs), and crewed fixed wing aircraft,...  firing any of a wide range of existing missiles. (Wikipedia)

** On August 24, the (US) Department of Defense announced it would be sending anti-drone weapons called VAMPIREs to Ukraine...VAMPIRE highlights the major role that drones are playing in the war, and the challenge of fighting against them without having specialized weapons. https://www.popsci.com/technology/vampire-weapon-ukraine-russia/

Samuel Ramani @SamRamani2 | 1:00 PM · Nov 1, 2022:

Ukraine has received military aid equivalent to 86% of Russia's entire military budget

Latvia's donation of 41% of its military budget and Estonia's donation of 37% of its military budget are the largest donations of any NATO member state. Amongst larger countries, Poland's 15% donation stands out.

France and Italy have provided just 0.5% of their military budgets to Ukraine

Germany is maligned for not giving enough to Ukraine but it still provided 2.4%
------------------------------------------------------------

Sergiy Kyslytsya @SergiyKyslytsya | 7:10 AM · Nov 1, 2022:
Ukraine government official. Permanent Representative of Ukraine @UKRinUN

The military aid Ukraine has received in 2022 is 14% less than the military budget of Russia. This & other info per country, including % of its own military budget given to Ukraine, according to Kiel Institute of World Economy as of October 2022. We appreciate every ₴, £, $, €

https://twitter.com/SergiyKyslytsya/status/1587401575663804416/photo/1

⚡️Russia's Wagner group facing UK court action over Ukraine 'terrorism.'

British law firm McCue Jury and Partners said on Nov. 1 that they took the first step towards what they said was "groundbreaking" legal action against Russia's mercenary Wagner group.

- The Kyiv Independent @KyivIndependent | 7:14 PM · Nov 1, 2022

Putin might lose the war. What would that look like for Russia, Ukraine and the world?
A former CIA leader on the cataclysms that may lie ahead — and how the U.S. should deal with them.
John McLaughlin | October 10, 2022

...if Russia suffers defeat in Ukraine, the Russian elite and all those ultranationalists who dominate the media would have to contemplate a world in which Russia and many of its leaders remain under Western sanctions, with a weak and globally isolated leader at the helm, and Russia carrying little weight on the world stage. Would they accept that? Their capacity for sycophancy has been almost boundless, but it is already fraying; calls for a more competent and brutal campaign have filled the airwaves lately, and public criticism of the mobilization has been heard all over the vast reaches of the Russian Federation.

One possibility is that as the bad news persists, Russian military and security service leaders might act as a kind of informal “politburo” and inform Putin that they can no longer support him, and that it is time for him to retire to his dacha with some honor intact.

That may prove to be wishful thinking as well. Other outcomes are possible — including a breakdown of public order — but with Russia’s highly centralized system and the security services willing so far to brutally put down all forms of protest, that scenario is even harder to imagine.

Finally, some Russians — struggling to imagine the aftermath of a Russian loss — sketch yet another scenario, one that might be described as a slow fading away for the Russian leader. A weakened Putin would cling to power, many more Russians would leave the country, and Russia would for a time simply exist as a dispirited and weak country.

This is what Putin’s monumental miscalculation has wrought for a country that, whatever its shortcomings, has no shortage of proud traditions and gifted citizens, and which during his early years in power had attained a place of significant influence and respect in the world. Russia has arrived at a critical, even existential, crossroads at least three times since World War I — during its 1917 revolution, facing the German onslaught on its territory that began in 1941, and then in the aftermath of the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991. These were huge and very different challenges, and Russia is in some ways still working its way through the consequences of all those upheavals.

With his Ukraine invasion, and the folly of his many moves since, Putin appears to be driving the country toward another crossroads. The outcome looks every bit as uncertain and potentially destabilizing as those earlier cataclysmic events.

https://www.grid.news/story/global/2022/10/10/putin-might-lose-the-war-what-woul...

>149 margd: Putin might lose the war

The shallow thinking that someone might "win" or "lose" a war is why we still have wars. Putin is not the "loser", or at least not the only one; everybody has already lost in this war.

Julia Davis (The Daily Beast) @JuliaDavisNews | 8:51 AM · Nov 1, 2022:

Russian state TV is telling the viewers that it's better to die than to lose the war to the wicked West, claiming that if they lose, Russians will be on display in Western zoos alongside the animals.

7:07 ( https://twitter.com/JuliaDavisNews/status/1587427026880937986 )

More in my latest article ⤵️

Head of RT Margarita Simonyan praised "the beauty of war," as opposed to societal freedoms, and said she would rather die than live in a world where people can deal with their own sexuality according to their own free will.

https://thedailybeast.com/margarita-simonyan-urges-russians-to-choose-death-over...

------------------------------------------------

Admiral James Stavridis, USN, Ret. @stavridisj | 9:36 AM · Nov 1, 2022:
Vice Chairman, The Carlyle Group, PhD, Admiral, US Navy (Retired) former Supreme Allied Commander at NATO

Zoos, no. Unlike some Russians, we are not war criminals. But I can think of a couple Russians who should be behind bars.

>151 margd: Pretty rich....so called Russian communists evolving into something akin to versions of USA republicans with all the holy roller God wants this and God wants that morality shit like they have a direct line to the heavens. What do right wing political leaders and the sycophantic celebrities that support them do all the day long in their spare time? They read their Bibles of course....that's what. God's on their side. Gonna actually die for it? Really? They send other people to die....usually those in society from ordinary citizens down the ladder to the poor and that people with wealth or political power don't really care about anyway.

>152 lriley: I read that Russia was encouraging anti-gay laws and attitudes in e Europe and Africa as a poison pill against the West. Maybe the Republicans here, too, with bathroom and don't-say-gay laws--so they didn't lose voters to the Dems? Certainly Russia and Republicans are willing to coopt church in their efforts...

>152 lriley: God's on their side. Gonna actually die for it? Really? They send other people to die

Many Christians who espouse nonviolence would hold a different view, summed up as, "I'm prepared to die for my faith but not to kill for it".

>154 John5918: I think he was referring to Margarita in RT clip--a member of the elite who is not risking death, as long as she stays on rt side of Putin--and away from windows.

>155 margd: I was. That's also why I used the phrase 'sycophantic celebrities'--I read her anti-LGBTQ quote going on about morality and such and being ready and willing to die to support Putin's war.....and she's not serious really about that and no one's likely to ask her to be but she's more than ready to fire up others to support this crazy war and die for her opinions.

In the United States religious and 'morally righteous' celebrities always come out of the woodwork to support this, that and any conflict under the sun. There are certainly religious that are anti-war but they definitely don't carry the same kind of weight in the overall scheme of things.