Russia: international moves, West responses, Putin's revenge & future...Ukraine 9

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Russia: international moves, West responses, Putin's revenge & future...Ukraine 9

1margd
Modificato: Set 15, 2022, 5:23 am

Brave, righteous Russians:

Ukraine war: Putin treason move was about piercing 'bubble of propaganda' in Russia
Mihhail Salenkov • 14/09/2022

A move {by St Petersburg (Deputy?) District Council } to have Vladimir Putin sacked as president is part of a bid to show that not all Russians support the war in Ukraine.

That's according to Nikita Yuferev, part of a group of St Petersburg politicians behind the unusual attempt.

They want Russia's parliament to strip Putin of his powers and charge him with treason.

Yuferev, who faces a fine for his actions and the dissolution of his district council, said it was about highlighting that some opposed Russia's invasion, which Putin and authorities in Russia insist on referring to as a "special military operation"...

https://www.euronews.com/2022/09/14/putin-treason-move-was-about-piercing-bubble...
----------------------------------------------------------------

US says Moscow abusing rights of jailed opposition leader Navalny
Alexey Navalny was Russian President Vladimir Putin’s fiercest domestic critic before being jailed for nine years.
10 Sep 2022

...The US agency said that Russian prison authorities had interfered with Navalny’s access to legal defence by supervising his meetings with his lawyers and delaying exchanges of documents and communication between them.

“This interference, along with his repeated diversion to solitary confinement for minor alleged infractions, is further evidence of politically motivated harassment,” the State Department said.

...In mid-August, Navalny issued a call from his prison cell for the West to impose tougher sanctions on Russian oligarchs.

Images of the opposition leader, published last week by independent Russian media, showed him emaciated and exhausted. His aides have also raised an alarm, saying that new communication restrictions at the prison prevent them from knowing what is happening to him...

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/9/10/us-says-moscow-abusing-rights-of-jailed...

2margd
Modificato: Set 15, 2022, 6:31 am

Mark Hertling @MarkHertling | 4:24 PM · Sep 14, 2022:
Retired soldier...dedicated to nation. Student of leadership, nat’l security & healthcare. Commissioner, @usabmc.

As I’ve said on cnn, Russia is incapable of adapting their army. There is no desire to professionalize, train, or lead a modern Army. This “Dirty Dozen” approach to soldier recruitment is a precursor to more battlefield failure. This is formalized fratricide.

Quote Tweet
Alex Kokcharov @AlexKokcharov | 12:32 PM · Sep 14, 2022:
London-based Country Risk analyst focused on #Russia, #Ukraine, #Belarus, #Baltics, #Eurasia & #Caucasus.

In this video from #Russia, oligarch Prigozhin, who is close to Putin and runs the Wagner private military company, is pitching to prison inmates, trying to recruit them for his PMC {private military company} to deploy in the #war against #Ukraine:
2:20 ( https://twitter.com/AlexKokcharov/status/1570088045545771009 )
(better sound, Russian: https://twitter.com/AlexKokcharov/status/1570088045545771009 )

...There are reports that the Wagner PMC recruited up to 10,000 prisoners already. It’s an army of convicted criminals, literally.
_________________________________________________

Twitter discussant recognized the name Wagner:

Erik Prince Offered Lethal Services to Sanctioned Russian Mercenary Firm Wagner
A business relationship between Prince and Wagner would, in effect, make the prominent Trump administration adviser a subcontractor to the Russian military.
Matthew Cole, Alex Emmons | April 13 2020

...Erik Prince, founder of the private security firm Blackwater and a Trump administration adviser, has sought in recent months to provide military services to a sanctioned Russian mercenary firm in at least two African conflicts, according to three people with knowledge of the efforts.

Prince, who is the brother of Trump Education Secretary Betsy DeVos, met earlier this year with a top official of Russia’s Wagner Group and offered his mercenary forces to support the firm’s operations in Libya and Mozambique... {Both Prince and RU denied any connection.}

https://theintercept.com/2020/04/13/erik-prince-russia-mercenary-wagner-libya-mo...
https://theintercept.com/2020/04/13/erik-prince-russia-mercenary-wagner-libya-mo...

3lriley
Set 15, 2022, 10:27 am

If it looks really like Putin is going to go down I think Navalny is not long for this world.

4margd
Modificato: Set 16, 2022, 11:45 am

Ukrainian Volunteer Paramedic Describes 'Hell' Of Russian Captivity To U.S. Lawmakers
Radio Free Eurpe / Radio Liberty's Ukrainian Service | September 16, 2022

A volunteer Ukrainian paramedic who was captured in the port city of Mariupol and held for three months...Yuliya "Taira" Paievska spoke to lawmakers with the Commission on Security and Cooperation in Europe, also known as the U.S. Helsinki Commission, describing the "hell" of her Russian captivity.

Paievska described "prisoners in cells screaming for weeks, and then dying from the torture without any medical help...she cradled male, female, and child prisoners alike before they died after "abuse and additional beating." ...

Paievska and her driver were taken into custody after being stopped in a routine document check in March in Mariupol, which at the time was under siege. They were held at various locations in territory occupied by Russian-backed separatists in Ukraine's Donetsk region before getting free in June...

https://www.rferl.org/a/ukrainian-paramedic-describes-hell-russian-capitivity/32...
________________________________________________

At least 440 graves found at Izium burial site, Ukraine says
Jonny Hallam and Brad Lendon | September 16, 2022

Ukrainian authorities have found 440 graves at a mass burial site in Izium, an eastern city recently recaptured from Russian forces, Ukraine’s Defense Ministry said...

...Ukraine’s Center for Strategic Communications said on Thursday that some of the graves discovered at Izium were “fresh,” and that the corpses buried there were “mostly civilians.”

Izium was subject to intense Russian artillery attacks in April, and the city, which sits near the border between the Kharkiv and Donetsk regions, became an important hub for the invading military during five months of occupation....

Photos released by the Ukrainian Defense Ministry on Friday showed numerous crosses on mounds in a wooded area near Izium, as well as a larger pit dug into the forest floor.

...Serhii Bolvinov, the chief police investigator for the Kharkiv region, earlier told Britain’s Sky News that there may be other mass burial sites in the Kharkiv area.

Talking specifically about the 440 graves, Bolvinov ...“We know that some were killed (shot dead), some died because of artillery fire, so-called mine explosion traumas. Some died because of airstrikes. Also we have information that a lot of bodies have not been identified yet. So the reasons of death will be established during the investigations” ...

https://www.cnn.com/2022/09/16/europe/ukraine-izium-mass-burial-site-intl-hnk/in...
_______________________________________________
ETA:

Mark MacKinnon markmackinnon | 9:41 AM · Sep 16, 2022:
Senior International Correspondent for The Globe and Mail. Now based in London, after stops in Moscow, the Middle East, and Beijing.

Horrific scenes in Izyum today. Some 445 people buried in this forest, all of whom died during six-month Russian occupation of the city. Another 17 Ukrainian soldiers were executed and dumped together in a single pit. Prosecutors say there’s evidence the soldiers were tortured

Photo forest being excavated ( https://twitter.com/markmackinnon/status/1570769770097647617/photo/1 )

5margd
Modificato: Set 16, 2022, 2:56 pm

Tanvi Madan @tanvi_madan | 9:35 AM · Sep 16, 2022:
Senior Fellow @BrookingsInst. Book "Fateful Triangle: How China Shaped US-India Relations During the Cold War"
https://twitter.com/tanvi_madan/status/1570768301009272837

Putin to Modi: "I know about your position on the conflict in Ukraine and I know about your concerns. I know that you share these concerns and we want all of this to end as soon as possible..." 1/

2/ Modi, who skipped his usual initial hug, to Putin:

"Today's era is not one of war, and I’ve talked to you about this on the phone several times…in the coming days, how we move towards the path of peace – we will definitely have an opportunity to discuss this."

{my transl.}

3/ In his initial remarks Modi also noted key concerns for developing countries – food security, fuel security, fertilizer supply problems -- saying, “we’ll have to find solutions and you will also have to take the initiative”

4/ Modi couched these concerns as coming from a friendly country that wants to maintain ties with Russia.

5/ Modi's "today is not an era of war" echoes past remarks.

In Sep 2014, he criticized those w expansionist rather than development mindsets

"Today we're seeing 18th-century-like expansionism. Encroaching into some countries, into seas & sometimes capturing others' territory"

6/ Are India's concerns about Russia's invasion (and its impact) new?

No; it's just that we're hearing them expressed more publicly -- and that Putin is acknowledging that Modi/India has been conveying their concerns.

Tanvi Madan explains why India is not in Russia’s camp
The historian says that the longer the war continues, the trickier India’s balancing act becomes
May 7th 2022

SINCE RUSSIA’S invasion of Ukraine, India’s position has widely been interpreted as supportive of Moscow. Delhi has not explicitly condemned Russia, and abstained on several related votes at the United Nations. It has refused to rule out the purchase of Russian arms or oil. It hosted Russia’s foreign minister, Sergei Lavrov, and he was granted a meeting with Prime Minister Narendra Modi. Furthermore, China and Russia have both suggested that India shares their view of the current crisis and of the international order.

India is not, however, in Russia’s camp. It neither supports nor endorses the Russian invasion. Moreover, Indian interests have been adversely affected by Moscow’s move. The invasion endangered the lives of more than 20,000 Indian citizens in Ukraine, one of whom was killed. It has increased Indian concerns about further Chinese military action at their shared border while the world’s attention is on Europe. It has also jeopardised the Russian and Ukrainian links in the arms supply chain on which Indian forces depend...

https://www.economist.com/by-invitation/2022/05/07/tanvi-madan-explains-why-indi...
___________________________________________
ETA:

Anton Gerashchenko @Gerashchenko_en | 10:04 AM · Sep 16, 2022:
Ukrainian patriot. Advisor to the Minister of Internal Affairs of Ukraine. Founder of the Institute of the Future. Official enemy of Russian propaganda

Russia will do everything so that conflict in 🇺🇦 finishes ASAP but Kyiv refuses negotiations, - Putin during a meeting with Indian Prime Minister

Will he now nominate himself for the Nobel Peace prize?

0:42 ( https://twitter.com/Gerashchenko_en/status/1570775711174242304 )

6margd
Modificato: Set 16, 2022, 12:50 pm

What now for Putin? After Russian retreat, the Kremlin has few good options in Ukraine
The Russian president is left in an "unenviable" position as he contends with domestic pressures after Ukraine's military launched a stunning counteroffensive, one expert said.
Phil McCausland | 16 Sept 2022

Regroup after retreat?
Full mobilization?
Sue for peace?
The nuclear option?
Winter is coming

https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/russia-retreats-ukraine-what-will-putin-do-mi...
_______________________________________________

What else would Putin say? (Winter is coming.)

Putin Says 'No Hurry' to Finish Ukraine Military Campaign
AFP | 11 minutes ago 16 Sept 2022

Russian President Vladimir Putin said Friday there were no plans to adjust Russia's military operations in Ukraine despite a counter-offensive, saying Moscow was in no rush to finish the campaign.

...Russia was "not fighting with a full army" but only contract soldiers, and said the main goal of the campaign remained "the liberation of the entire territory of Donbas".

He accused Ukrainian forces of attempts to carry out "terrorist acts" and damage Russian civilian infrastructure.

"We are really quite restrained in our response to this, for the time being," Putin said. "If the situation continues to develop in this way, the response will be more serious."

https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2022/09/16/putin-says-no-hurry-to-finish-ukraine-...

7margd
Set 16, 2022, 12:54 pm

The Kyiv Independent @KyivIndependent | 6:33 PM · Sep 15, 2022
⚡️Pope: Morally acceptable to supply Ukraine with weapons for self-defense.

"Self-defense is not only licit but also an expression of love for the homeland. Someone who does not defend oneself, who does not defend something, does not love it." Pope Francis said, Reuters reports

Pope Francis told reporters on Sept. 15 aboard a flight back from Kazakhstan that sending weapons to Ukraine for self-defense against Russian aggression is morally acceptable.

8margd
Modificato: Set 17, 2022, 8:24 am

Michael McFaul McFaul | 5:04 PM · Sep 16, 2022:
{Prof. Frmr US ambassador to Russia}

To those who argue that Russians don't care about symbolic acts of isolation, please check out the outrage being expressed from Moscow because Russia was not invited to attend Queen Elizabeth II's funeral.

JJ @Atamansikka:
They definitely care. Same with the visa restrictions. It’s driving them through the roof as they’re nothing they can do but spew out their anger and righteous indignation.
--------------------------------------------------------------
Below oughtta play well in certain parts of the Commonwealth?

Julia Davis @JuliaDavisNews | 11:48 PM · Sep 15, 2022:
Columnist @TheDailyBeast, creator of the Russian Media Monitor, sanctioned by Russia, member of @TheEmmys. I watch Russian state TV, so you don't have to.

Even after her passing, Russian state media continues to malign Queen Elizabeth. State TV host Olga Skabeeva falsely claimed that the offensive footage depicts the queen, when in fact it was filmed sometime between 1899 and 1900, decades before Queen Elizabeth was born.

0:33 {white woman tossing something to POC --lie Trump tossing paper towels to hurricane victims in Puerto Rico..}. ( https://twitter.com/JuliaDavisNews/status/1570620697143287810 )

9margd
Set 17, 2022, 8:12 am

Inconvenient Truth @BR58721166 | 5:16 PM · Sep 16, 2022:

The jockeying to take advantage of the power vacuum created by Putin’s weakness has already begun.

Kazakhstan Is Breaking Out of Russia’s Grip
The Ukraine war has given Astana a unique chance to frustrate Moscow.
Temur Umarov, a fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace | 16 Sept 2022
https://foreignpolicy.com/2022/09/16/kazakhstan-russia-ukraine-war/

{Screenshots tweets fr mainline media:}
{Georgia} https://twitter.com/BR58721166/status/1570884303474786305/photo/1
{Kyrgystan/Tajikistan} https://twitter.com/BR58721166/status/1570884303474786305/photo/2
{Israel/Syria} https://twitter.com/BR58721166/status/1570884303474786305/photo/3
{Armenia-Azerbaijan} https://twitter.com/BR58721166/status/1570884303474786305/photo/4

10margd
Modificato: Set 18, 2022, 8:37 am

Phillips P. OBrien @PhillipsPOBrien | 3:49 AM · Sep 18, 2022:
Professor of Strategic Studies, @univofstandrews, Author: How the War was Won, and Second Most Powerful Man in the World. Editor in Chief, War in History
{Comments at} https://twitter.com/PhillipsPOBrien/status/1571405919358943232

Russia is now entirely defenseless against NATO--by its own choice as it tries to fight in Ukraine. Putin showing how really unconcerned he is about a possible NATO threat--he is happy to leave Russia undefended.

Quote Tweet
Minna Ålander 🌻 @minna_alander | 1:43 AM · Sep 18, 2022:
Research Fella @FIIA_fi ex @SWPBerlin. Nordic security & defence, also keeping an eye on Germany. From the Arctic Circle.

👀 an analysis of satellite images shows that Russia has been emptying air defence batteries around Saint Petersburg to source missiles to Ukraine

Via @yleuutiset

Suomi = Finland
Venäjä = Russia
Viro = Estonia
Pietari = St. Pete
Red dots = empty bases

https://yle.fi/uutiset/3-12588962

Satellite map ( https://twitter.com/minna_alander/status/1571374244327727104/photo/1 )

Well, there’s still some good stuff left - more likely it’s been S-300s that have been removed and S-400 is still largely in place. But an interesting flex nonetheless ! Here’s the article in English:

Exclusive: Russia moves missiles from St Petersburg to Ukraine
Satellite images obtained by Yle show that Russia has been transferring anti-aircraft missiles away from St Petersburg.
Mika Mäkeläinen, Yle News | 10:00 • Updated 13:16
https://yle.fi/news/3-12626182

Cornelius @CorneliusATlow:
And just to remind folks several months ago they moved loads of troops and equipment out of Alakurtti base near Finland. Never about NATO

11margd
Modificato: Set 19, 2022, 7:27 am

Neil Hauer @NeilPHauer | 5:16 PM · Sep 18, 2022:
Russia, Ukraine & Caucasus: Armenia, Georgia, Chechnya etc. Stories CNN , CBC , @NYMag , guardian , @AJEnglish etc. 🇨🇦

Longtime source in Ukraine's Foreign Legion tells me Lysychansk is fully under Ukrainian control. "River is crossed, city is ours - Severodonetsk soon."

Meaning the river is crossed nearby to secure the environs and prepare for Severodonetsk
.
.
.
{Twitter looks for confirmation}

Pat @PatTheShack1
If it’s true the entire Luhansk region is in danger of collapse. Seems like the LPR forces and Russian forces have ceased to exist.

12margd
Set 19, 2022, 7:45 am

Oleksiy Sorokin @mrsorokaa | 2:50 AM · Sep 19, 2022:
Journalist, editor, manager 🇺🇦🇨🇦| @UofT 2018 | ex-Kyiv Post | now @kyivindependent

Overnight, Russia shells the South Ukrainian Nuclear Power Plant for no reason.

They are also in full control of the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant, which they use as a military base.

13margd
Set 20, 2022, 2:38 am

Ukraine marches farther into liberated lands, separatist calls for urgent referendum
Tom Balmforth | 20 Sept 2022

Ukraine says its forces capture village near Lysychansk
Separatist leader calls for referendum to join Russia
"Occupiers are clearly in a panic," Zelenskiy
Russia relocates some Black Sea submarines- UK

...Luhansk and the neighbouring province of Donetsk comprise the industrialised eastern region of Donbas, which Moscow says it intends to seize ...

...Denis Pushilin, head of the Moscow-based separatist administration in Donetsk, called on his fellow separatist leader in Luhansk to combine efforts toward preparing a referendum on joining Russia...

...Increased Ukrainian long-range strike capability had likely forced Russia's Black Sea fleet to relocate some of its submarines from the port of Sevastopol in Crimea to Novorossiysk in Krasnodor Krai in southern Russia, the British military said...

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/ukraine-marches-farther-into-liberated-land...

14margd
Set 21, 2022, 4:24 am

Here we go...

Ukraine Live Updates: Putin Declares Expansion of War Effort
In a rare address to the nation, the Russian president said more people would be called up to fight and that the goals of his invasion of Ukraine had not changed.
NYT | Moscow Sept. 21, 10:47 a.m.

...In a rare videotaped address to the nation, Mr. Putin stopped short of declaring a full, national draft but instead called for a “partial mobilization” of people with military experience {~300,000}. He said that Russia’s goals in Ukraine had not changed and that the move was “necessary and urgent” because the West had “crossed all lines” by providing sophisticated weapons to Ukraine.

...insisting that the West’s goal is to “weaken, divide and eventually destroy” Russia.

He accused the United States and Europe of engaging in “nuclear blackmail” but warned that Russia has “lots of weapons” in response.

“To those who allow themselves such statements about Russia, I want to remind you that our country also has various means of destruction, and some components are more modern than those of the NATO countries,” he said. “And if the territorial integrity of our country is threatened, we will certainly use all the means at our disposal to protect Russia and our people..”

Mr. Putin said his key war aim — “liberating” Ukraine’s eastern Donbas region — remained unchanged and announced his support for referendums hastily announced on Tuesday that would see occupied Ukrainian territory become part of Russia.

“Russia can’t give up on people living close by to be torn apart by executioners and fail to respond to their desire to determine their own fate,” he said, referring to Ukrainians in occupied territory...

https://www.nytimes.com/live/2022/09/21/world/russia-ukraine-war-putin
____________________________________________

Dmitri Alperovitch @DAlperovitch | 2:00 AM · Sep 21, 2022:
Focus: Geopolitics, National Security, Great Power Competition, Cybersecurity. Chairman @SilveradoPolicy; Founder @alperovitch; Co-Founder @CrowdStrike
https://twitter.com/DAlperovitch/status/1572465816741847045
https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1572465816741847045.html

The much delayed Putin TV address is here. Live tweeted summary is below 🧵
https://twitter.com/DAlperovitch/status/1572465816741847045/photo/1

Talking about the necessary steps to preserve Russia and the right of self determination
Talking about the West pursuit of 'pseudo-values'
The West wants to breakup Russia
Long list of grievances... NATO coming to Russia's borders, etc
'They West pushed Ukraine to war with us'
Kyiv refused to negotiate peace and is pursuing nuclear weapons
The decision to launch the special military operation was necessary and the goal remains to liberate Donbas
Luhanks oblast is almost liberated and we are making progress in liberating Donetsk oblast
Right now professional soldiers serving under contract are serving in the special military operations, as well as volunteers
Talking about providing benefits and materiel to volunteers and LNR/DNR fighters
The front line is over 1000 km
Kyiv started to respond to our positions favorably, including in Istanbul. But the West did not want it and made Ukraine break off negotiations
Ukraine military is under effective command of Western advisors
Talking about historic Novorossiya lands
And, of course, Neo-Nazis
Talking about poor millions of refugees in Eastern Ukraine (Ed: I wonder why they are refugees...)
Now discussing referendums
'We will make everything possible to make sure that the referendums can be held safely'
'We will support referendums'
We are fighting not just neo-nazis but the whole Western military complex
Thus, I have to take the following necessary steps (Ed: here we go)
Putin announces partial mobilization!
Mobilization applies to reserves and those who had previously served in the military
Mobilization will start today Sept 21
Talking about increasing production of munitions and weapons systems
Bashing the West again
Washington, London and Brussels are pushing Ukraine to take the fight to Russian territory
They are even using 'nuclear blackmail' (Zaporizhia NPP)
NATO is talking about the use of weapons of mass destruction against Russia (Ed: It's not)
We will use all of our resources to protect Russia. 'This is not a bluf'. Reinforcing: 'all available resources'
'The wind can blow in their western direction too'

And Putin's speech is done.
Summary: immediate partial mobilization of those with military expertise. Bashing of the West and Ukrainian 'neo-Nazis'. And some not so oblique nuclear threats

END

---------------------------------------------------------------
Dmitri Alperovitch @DAlperovitch
https://twitter.com/DAlperovitch/status/1572480793225707522

New video released in an interview format of Defense Minister Shoigu. Quick thread 🧵

Shoigu: In February, we knew that Ukrainian Armed Forces had 201-202k forces. Their casualties are over 100k. Killed 61,207 and 49,368 wounded (Ed: amazingly precise numbers for something that is virtually impossible to count accurately)

Shoigu: They lost half of their army. That's why they are now doing a 4th wave of mobilization (300k ppl)

Shoigu: There are a little over 1,000 foreign mercenaries and trainers left in Ukraine. Some left, over 2,000 killed

Shoigu: Our losses are 5,937 KIA. 90% of our wounded have returned to service
(Ed: both almost certainly false)

Shoigu on partial mobilization: We are taking reservists who:
A) Have served
B) Have military specialist skills
C) Have combat experience
Ed: Not a lot of people would meet all of those criteria

Shoigu on partial mobilization: We are not going to take students from war colleges. We are also not taking conscripts
Ed: If he is not lying, the number of forces that they can gather through this partial mobilization may be quite tiny

Shoigu: Conscripts will continue to serve on the territory of Russian Federation
Ed: what happens after referendums expand the territory of Russian Federation?
______________________________________________

Volodymyr Tretyak 🇺🇦 @VolodyaTretyak | 2:44 PM · Sep 20, 2022:
Translating different things related to the war from Ukrainian/Russian | Sometimes my thoughts | author at @wartranslated | #NAFO
https://twitter.com/VolodyaTretyak/status/1572295608496705536

#Putin has not yet spoken, but in #Russia, requests on Google "how to leave the country" have increased: "how to leave the country"
Graph ( https://twitter.com/VolodyaTretyak/status/1572295608496705536/photo/1 )

Interest by regions:
Map ( https://twitter.com/VolodyaTretyak/status/1572295617891762182/photo/1 )

15margd
Set 21, 2022, 4:48 am

Alexander Baunov @baunov | 10:03 AM · Sep 20, 2022:
https://twitter.com/baunov/status/1572225020210089985

THREAD 1/9 Today, with no warning, amendments to Russian law were introduced to the Duma & immediately passed in 3 readings. They bring Russia much closer to full mobilization & stipulate harsh penalties for failing to report for military duty, surrendering, or refusal to fight.

2/9 Taken together with demands for “immediate,”—maybe even online—referendums in all parts of occupied Ukrainian territory on becoming part of Russia, the message is clear.

3/9 That message is: “You chose to fight us in Ukraine, now try to fight us in Russia itself, or, to be precise, what we call Russia.” The hope is that the West will baulk at this.

4/9 Foreign troops crossing Russia’s borders, even if the border has just moved, will be used by Putin to justify renaming the “special operation” a war, moving toward mobilization, targeting Ukrainian sites it had previously avoided, & making its nuclear threats less abstract.

5/9 Some commentators are linking these new measures to the support and approval Putin supposedly got from major non-Western countries at the recent Shanghai Cooperation Organization in Samarkand.

6/9 I believe the opposite is true. Those countries signaled to Putin that he should end the war as quickly as possible, and stop claiming to represent the entirety of the non-Western world.

7/9 China by no means supports Russia’s actions in Ukraine, but Beijing’s doubts are rarely made public. This time they were, and clearly at China’s initiative. At the same summit, Russia’s Central Asian allies were less deferential to Putin than previously.

8/9 Moscow’s actions, therefore, are being taken to either end the war as soon as possible, or, if it that doesn’t work, to put the blame for that on other people, and turn Russia’s invasion of a neighboring country into a defensive war.

9/9 Moscow hopes that that distinction will make the conflict more legitimate in the eyes of ordinary Russians, leaving the Kremlin free to make whatever decisions and take whatever measures it deems necessary.

16lriley
Set 21, 2022, 7:28 am

Mobilizing 300,000 or not the Russians still have to figure out all the logistics of clothing, feeding, arming, resupplying. Previous to the invasion their armored tank and vehicle manufacturing capabilities weren’t great to begin…..now they hardly exist because they can’t get all the necessary technology and in the meanwhile a great deal of it has either been destroyed or captured. They’ve never been adequately able to feed or resupply their troops which leaves the same to fend for themselves which is in part why there has been so much looting, raping and murdering of civilians. These troops go and take and lots of them now are being poisoned by what’s being left out for them to take. Might as well add that winter is coming on and that from what I’ve read the Russian Army in Ukraine has very little in the way of cold weather gear or prospects for the same. This war that Putin started isn’t going to take a break for them and those who are dug in or living in destroyed cities with the infrastructure knocked down are going to be freezing their asses off while trying to defend themselves. Expect higher losses and more lost territory.

17margd
Modificato: Set 21, 2022, 10:58 am

Cannon fodder to get through the winter -- hoping the Europeans cave...
I read that Russian searches on how to break one's arm are trending up...

18kiparsky
Set 21, 2022, 11:14 am

>18 kiparsky: It's worth remembering that the Russian army has always fought with weapons on both sides of them - they march towards weapons, with weapons aimed at their backs.

Also worth remembering that this has never proved very successful.

19margd
Set 21, 2022, 11:19 am

Poor guys. Ukrainian winter won't be a picnic either...

20lriley
Modificato: Set 21, 2022, 1:08 pm

Stopping all Russian males from 18 to 65 booking flights out of the country.

If it gets cold enough in winter some are going to cross over the ice from St. Petersburg to Finland.

21margd
Set 21, 2022, 3:15 pm

Moscow protesters chanting
Putin to the trenches,
no war.

22aspirit
Set 21, 2022, 3:25 pm

>21 margd: I saw that on a vlog. "No to war!" in Russian.

The YouTuber walking the street alongside the protestors also mentioned how cold Moscow is today.

23margd
Set 21, 2022, 10:45 pm

Mark Hertling @MarkHertling | 9:01 AM · Sep 21, 2022:
Retired soldier. (Frmer general, head US Army in Europe)
https://twitter.com/MarkHertling/status/1572571686620516353

300,000 "reservists" was jaw-dropping to me this morning, but not for the reason some might suspect.
Why? Because know how Russian soldiers are trained, in basic training & in their units.
A brief 🧵 on some fun facts. 1/

While I commanded US Army Europe before retiring, before that I commanded all basic & advanced soldier training for the Army (2009-11).
During that period,≈150,000 new soldiers/year at (then) 5 basic training sites & 21 advanced training locations, received training.2/
Photo ( https://twitter.com/MarkHertling/status/1572571681927098370/photo/1 )

Most new US soldiers get 10 weeks of basic training (some get more at one-station unit training (OSUT) sites, like infantry, artillery, MPs). Those that don't go to OSUT travel off to different length courses for advanced training in a "specialty" (logistics, intel, etc). 3/
Photo ( https://twitter.com/MarkHertling/status/1572571686620516353/photo/1 )

It's a long period of time, trained by very professional drill sergeants. There is an extremely high resource overhead to all this.
Soldiers report to their units ready to be integrated in the specific mission.
Remember, the US population is 344 million & we train≈150k. 4/
Photo ( https://twitter.com/MarkHertling/status/1572571690852585478/photo/1 )

Russia, on the other hand, has a population of 144 million citizens, spread over 11 time zones.
Theirs is a conscript force w/ 1 basic training site, (Labinsk in S. Russia). Some RU get advanced specialty training, but most RU soldiers get most training in their 1st unit. 5/
Photo ( https://twitter.com/MarkHertling/status/1572571694472261632/photo/1 )

Russian soldiers got just a few days of basic training before being sent to Belarus starting last November (pre-invasion).
https://themoscowtimes.com/2022/07/20/russia-sends-army-recruits-to-fight-in-ukr... 6/

During 2 visits to RU, I saw basic & unit training. It was awful. Familiarization versus qualification on rifles, rudimentary first aid, very few simulations to conserve resources, and...most importantly...horrible leadership by "drill sergeants." 7/
https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2020/02/17/decade-after-military-reform-hazing-pl...

Officers admitted to me that theirs was a "one year" force, with some - the poorest - volunteering or being elected for leadership roles. 8/
Photo ( https://twitter.com/MarkHertling/status/1572571702579822593/photo/1 )

Remember, RU soldiers get almost ALL training in units vs at basic.
How units are resourced play a big part.
One tank unit i visited near Moscow proudly told me they get 1 tank round/crew each year (US units spend hours in simulators & crews fire dozens of real rounds/year). 9/
Photo ( https://twitter.com/MarkHertling/status/1572571707088707584/photo/1 )

BTW, Ukraine's army has taken the US model to heart after receiving training from US personnel in both individual and unit training techniques since 2014.
The establishment of JMTG-U by US Army, Europe was instrumental in that. Here's a link to that. 10/
https://eucom.mil/topic/jmtg-u

The issue is the Russian army is poorly led & poorly trained. That starts in basic training, and doesn't get better during the RU soldier's time in uniform.
Mobilizing 300k "reservists" (after failing with depleted conventional forces, rag-tag militias...11/

...recruiting prisoners & using paramilitaries like the Wagner group) will be extremely difficult.
And placing "newbies" on a front line that has been mauled, has low morale & who don't want to be portends more RU disaster.
Jaw-dropping. A new sign of RU weakness 12/12

24margd
Set 21, 2022, 11:15 pm

Samuel Ramani @SamRamani2 | 5:03 AM · Sep 21, 2022:
DPhil/PhD Intl Relations @UniofOxford Assoc Fellow @RUSI_org
Bylines @ForeignPolicy , WaPo etc 3 forthcoming books HurstPublishers

Russian media is warning that participants in "illegal rallies" will be subjected to military conscription

This new means of deterring anti government dissent is detailed here. https://twitter.com/SamRamani2/status/1572512193245237250

All participants in these rallies will be referred to Russia’s Internal Affairs Ministry after detention and drafted

25lriley
Set 22, 2022, 1:12 am

…….and first chance some of these units get they might surrender en masse.

26margd
Modificato: Set 22, 2022, 7:48 am

Remember last winter when Ukrainian soldiers found an armed Russian soldier frozen to death--chained to a tree?

How many people need to die for Putin's dream? For his future?

27margd
Set 22, 2022, 8:00 am

Pjotr Sauer @PjotrSauer | 4:22 AM · Sep 22, 2022:
Reporter Guardian covering Russia and Ukraine.

First clips coming out of Russia this morning of draftees saying bye to their families. This from a small town in Yakutsk. Credits @taygainfo

0:45 ( https://twitter.com/PjotrSauer/status/1572863899934019585 )

28margd
Modificato: Set 22, 2022, 8:10 am

I thought the Azov defenders of Mariupol who surrendered to Putin's army were goners.

Tadeusz Giczan @TadeuszGiczan | 2:52 AM · Sep 22, 2022:
Belarusian journalist, PhD Researcher @UCLSSEES . Belarus' crony socialism...

The release of the Azov leadership is an even bigger blow to Russian nationalists than the Kharkiv retreat. The retreat could be explained by the mistakes of the military, while the release of the Azov command undermines the very idea of "denazification". 1/
A🧵
Photo ( https://twitter.com/TadeuszGiczan/status/1572841229754286080/photo/1 )

Russian propaganda has been demonising the Azov regiment for the last eight years, telling stories about how they "kill Russian children of Donbas". They have become something like the SS and have been opposed to ordinary Ukrainian soldiers "who are just like us". 2/

One of the main aims of denazification was the elimination of Azov, and the fall of Mariupol and their capture was the main triumph of the war to date. Their trial and execution were supposed to be the culmination of the "liberation" of Ukraine. 3/

And then suddenly, when the cages for the tribunal were ready, they are swapped for the father of Putin's goddaughter.* For Russian nationalists, this is akin to the USSR capturing General Rommel along with an SS division in 1942 and swapping them for Stalin's son. 4/

With the Kharkiv defeat, Putin has already turned a large part of Russian nationalists against himself, but today, by his betrayal, he has practically become their enemy number one making it clear to everyone that the idea of "denazifying Ukraine" was just a bluff. 5/

And as if that wasn't enough, on the same day, by announcing the mobilisation, Putin also destroyed Russia's main social contract of the last 30 years - you let us get rich and we stay out of your private life. 6/

This will soon anger not only politicised activists but a huge apolitical part of the population, something completely unprecedented. It's still too early but I'm pretty sure future historians will mark 21.09.22 as one of the key days in the fall of Putin's Russia. 7/7

------------------------------------------------------------

* https://twitter.com/Arthurmaz1/status/1572851530017177600/photo/1

Gav @Gavin5080
They've also released a number of foreign legionnaires, & a couple Brits who were marines, will this also be infuriating for the hawks etc?

Jon Hallin @JonHallin
Some of them seem almost more upset about that than about the Azov leaders and soldiers.

29margd
Modificato: Set 22, 2022, 11:03 am

Bakhti Nishanov @b_nishanov | 7:11 AM · Sep 22, 2022:
On the Hill with http://csce.gov (U.S. Helsinki Commission). Previously @IRIglobal and freedomhouse.
https://twitter.com/b_nishanov/status/1572906547285721089

Everything I’ve seen on this mobilization so far points to Yakutia, Saha, Buryatia, Dagestan, Chechnya being mobilized in disproportionately large numbers. If this bears out, no question this is a systematic effort to deploy Russia’s ethnic minorities as cannon fodder.

30margd
Set 22, 2022, 1:53 pm

Stairs...

Ex-Putin Ally Plunges to His Death ‘From a Great Height’ at Moscow Aviation Institute
Dan Ladden-Hall | Sep. 21, 2022

...the 73-year-old {Anatoly Gerashchenko} ’s death as “the result of an accident,” adding that his untimely demise was a “a colossal loss for the MAI and the scientific and pedagogical community.” ... “fell from a great height” and careened down several flights of stairs. He was reportedly pronounced dead at the scene.

...Gerashchenko, {the former head of Moscow’s Aviation Institute} who more recently served as an adviser to the current head of MAI, spent his career rising through the ranks at the institute, which has close ties with the Russian defense ministry. He had also been honored with several awards from the Russian government, including the “Merit to the Fatherland” medal.

His death comes less than two weeks after an executive appointed to help oversee development in Russia’s Far East died in a strange fall from a moving boat just days after attending an economic forum with Putin. Theirs are just the latest in a string of odd deaths among officials and executives in Russia’s energy and technology industries.

https://www.thedailybeast.com/russian-aviation-scientist-anatoly-gerashchenko-fa...

31margd
Set 22, 2022, 3:41 pm

Putin is personally giving orders to his generals on the battlefield as dysfunction grows, according to US intel
Jake Epstein | Sept 22, 2022

...CNN reported Thursday that intelligence intercepts have captured Russian military officers arguing about strategy, tactics, and Putin's decision-making from Moscow, even voicing their frustration with loved ones back home in Russia.

In the face of ongoing Ukrainian advances, which appear to have taken a toll on Russian forces, top Russian officials have responded by shifting the blame from Putin and pinning the blame on others...

https://www.businessinsider.com/putin-giving-orders-generals-ukraine-battlefield...
-------------------------------------------------------------

Russian military leadership dissatisfied with Putin’s tactics, CNN says
Putin himself gives instructions to the generals who are on the battlefield
September 22, 2022

Two of CNN’s sources confirmed earlier rumors of Putin personally overseeing Russian combat operations.

“This is a highly unusual management tactic in a modern military that, according to these sources, hints at an ineffective command structure that has interfered with Russia's war from the start,” CNN wrote.

Communications that have been intercepted by Western intelligence agencies show Russian officers bickering and complaining to friends and family about the Kremlin's decisions...

The sources also note that there are serious disagreements between military leaders on where to focus their efforts in order to strengthen the Russian defense...

https://www.yahoo.com/video/russian-military-leadership-dissatisfied-putin-15400...

32margd
Set 22, 2022, 4:27 pm

Samuel Ramani @SamRamani2 | 9:51 AM · Sep 22, 2022:
DPhil/PhD Intl Relations @UniofOxford Assoc Fellow @RUSI_org Bylines @ForeignPolicy, WaPo etc 3 forthcoming books

Poland is distributing iodine tablets to regional fire departments
Poland is preparing for potential fallout from a disaster at the Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant

33margd
Set 23, 2022, 6:34 am

Samuel Ramani @SamRamani2 | 4:13 PM · Sep 22, 2022:
DPhil/PhD Intl Relations @UniofOxford Assoc Fellow @RUSI_org Bylines @ForeignPolicy, WaPo etc 3 forthcoming books HurstPublishers

Buryat University* students are being drafted into the Russian military
This explicitly violates the Kremlin's pledge that students would not be subject to partial mobilization

This episode of students being dragged out of their classrooms to prepare for war with Ukraine is an extraordinary example of the Kremlin's desire to go well beyond the rhetorical confines of its mobilization campaign

Медиазона @mediazzzona | 7:15 AM · Sep 22, 2022:

Студент Бурятского государственного университета в Улан-Удэ рассказал The Village, что сегодня утром на пары в вуз пришли росгвардейцы и военная полиция и «забирают студентов прямо с пар»

https://zona.media/chronicle/211?_share=1&event=49874 {article in Russian}

{Translated from Russian by google: A student at the Buryat State University in Ulan-Ude told The Village that this morning the National Guard and the military police came to the university to take classes and “take the students straight from the classes”}

0:06 ( https://twitter.com/mediazzzona/status/1572907342496251904 )

* Siberia... https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Buryat_State_University
----------------------------------------------------------------

krokk @Drrrgvdd · 13h
"The Kremlin," or conscription offices fulfilling their quotas? My money's on the latter.

34margd
Set 23, 2022, 6:37 am

Samuel Ramani @SamRamani2 | 4:19 PM · Sep 22, 2022:
DPhil/PhD Intl Relations @UniofOxford Assoc Fellow @RUSI_org Bylines @ForeignPolicy, WaPo etc 3 forthcoming books HurstPublishers

Anti-mobilization protests in Russia are not necessarily anti-war protests

35margd
Modificato: Set 23, 2022, 9:03 am

Bet Russia Govt won't waste much money on boots and uniforms:
300,000. To the slaughter....

Dmitri @wartranslated @wartranslated | 5:45 AM · Sep 23, 2022:
DMs open for submissions (NO POWs) | 🇪🇪 Estonian | Founder of a project concerned with translating materials from the war in Ukraine

"Why are you screaming like women?!?! Shut your mouths!!!"
1:31 ( https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1573247133448376320 )

Mikolaj @mikolajnalej
I think you made mistake in translation of the most important part. I think he is not saying "2 nedeli do podgotovki" (2 weeks untill training). He is saying "2 nedeli dop podgotovki" (2 weeks of supplementery training). dop = dopołnitelnoy. And after 2 weeks formation of units.

36margd
Set 23, 2022, 3:55 pm

максим.еріставі 🇺🇦🏳️‍🌈 @maksymeristavi | 12:59 PM · Sep 23, 2022:
#russiancolonialism storyteller-in-chief. i also own 50% of @ukrainianspaces

my family was just forced to vote at gunpoint in russian cosplay of a “referendum” in southern ukraine:

- they come to your house
- you have to openly tick the box for being annexed by russia (or for staying with ukraine if you feel suicidal)
- all while armed gunmen watch you

it seems bizarre for russians cosplaying a “referendum” at gunpoint. but then i remember they did it in 2014 crimea (forcing my aunts to vote, too) and many abroad ate that shit up no questions asked. this bad kabuki theater of a democracy is for foreign audience only

forcing ukrainians at gunpoint to tick a box for their own genocide is a next level sadistic #russiancolonialism, though

37aspirit
Set 23, 2022, 6:32 pm

I searched on "ukraine referendum gunpoint" and was given in the top results a disreputable site. So as a note...

RT.com is political propaganda supporting Putin's government.

Most of the results were from European news sites, which makes sense. The problem is I don't know how to screen them, as they aren't recognizable names here.

So here's "Russian-occupied regions in Ukraine begin staged votes as the Kremlin denies reports of men fleeing partial mobilization" from NBC News, today.
https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/russian-ukraine-referendums-regions-fleeing-m...

"The voting in Ukraine’s occupied Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhzhia and Kherson regions has already been condemned as a sham by Kyiv and its Western allies, including the United States."

38margd
Set 24, 2022, 9:12 am

Dr Mike Martin 🔶 @ThreshedThought | 3:59 AM · Sep 24, 2022
Fascinated by what violent organised conflict teaches us about humans; Visiting Fellow @warstudies; Books: http://tinyurl.com/rwjs5dn9; Videos: http://tinyurl.com/3p6wk8v9
https://twitter.com/ThreshedThought/status/1573582879250071552
https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1573582858454720512.html

I think we are seeing the beginning of the end of the Russia war in Ukraine.
A thread.
.
.
. It’s over for Putin.
His army is slowly collapsing in Ukraine.
The vultures are circulating at home.
And he is internationally isolated.
It’s just a question of whether this wraps up this year or next.

Finally - what I’ve also noticed is that there are a lot less Russian bots attacking me on Twitter...

Sam the man @SamFrance89
He will try a “Battle of the Bulge” tactic soon, but where? My guess is Zaporigha

Rikujuu @RikuJuu
Then the ultimate finish in the bunker?

39margd
Set 24, 2022, 4:19 pm

Russia returns a Ukrainian POW, who could be mistaken for an Auschwitz survivor...

Mark Hertling @ | 9:32 PM · Sep 23, 2022:
Retired soldier. Student of leadership, nat’l security & healthcare. Commissioner, @usabmc

An important interview w @ErinBurnett
with 2 critical lessons:
1. Don’t piss off the mothers & wives of soldiers.
2.Corpses don’t talk about war crimes, but released prisoners do.

Putin and all his generals are war criminals!

EBOF 9.23.22 Christo Grozev, Lt. General Mark Hertling
This is "EBOF 9.23.22 Christo Grozev {Bellingcat}, {retired US} Lt. General Mark Hertling" by EBOF on Vimeo, the home for high quality videos and the people who love them.
7:27 ( https://twitter.com/MarkHertling/status/1573485451113029633 , https://vimeo.com/753169632/9d161ed2b3 )

40margd
Set 24, 2022, 4:31 pm

Svidomi @Svidomi_En | 9:42 AM · Sep 24, 2022:
▪️ Ukrainian media ▪️ Tells news in a convenient format ▪️ ua🇺🇦 – @svidomi_media
▪️ #svidomi_digest

❗️About 90% of call-up papers in the temporarily occupied Crimea were received by Crimean Tatars — human rights defenders

In the temporarily occupied Crimea, Crimean Tatars received about 90% of mobilization summonses, even though they make up 13–15% of the peninsula's population

The CrimeaSOS Board reported about this.

The organization's analyst, Yevhenii Yaroshenko, believes that such mobilization can lead to hidden genocide.

"The Crimean Tatars are citizens and indigenous people of Ukraine, whom Russia can purposefully extinguish by throwing them into a war against their own state," Yevhenii Yaroshenko emphasized.

41margd
Modificato: Set 25, 2022, 3:25 am

Dmitri @wartranslated | 6:34 PM · Sep 24, 2022:
Estonian | Founder of a project concerned with translating materials from the war in Ukraine

If I'm not wrong, Russians lost 4 planes and 1 helicopter today, more than on any day since the start of the war?

Cornelius X. Carroll 🇺🇸🇺🇦 @CXCarroll
My count as well. They must be rather desperate to throw assets into what is clearly heavily defended airspace.

Paul Sarjeant 🇺🇦 🇨🇦 🇺🇦 @psarj
My thought too.
"Glorious" Russian Airforce is getting pressured to justify the billions that have been spent on them!

42margd
Modificato: Set 25, 2022, 8:13 am

Putin regime once again attempts rebrand of Ukraine invasion as Western/NATO aggression...

MFA Russia 🇷🇺 @mfa_russia | 7:17 PM · Sep 24, 2022
Russia government organization

💬 #Lavrov at #UNGA77: Official Russophobia in the West has taken on grotesque forms, grown to unprecedented scale.

👉 They no longer shy away from openly declaring the intention to destroy, to partition Russia.

Photo ( https://twitter.com/mfa_russia/status/1573813856631197697/photo/1 )
Russia at the United Nations and 9 others
_______________________________________
ETA

Dmitri @wartranslated | 6:53 PM · Sep 24, 2022
Lavrov forgets to take the white powder and misspells 3 out of 4 Ukrainian regions, calling Luhansk 'Laos', Kherson - Kharkiv, and Zaporozhye - Zaporozhniye.

0:14 ( https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1573807876359028736 )
_______________________________________

Russia’s Lavrov vows ‘full protection’ for any annexed territory
Al Jazeera English | Sep 25, 2022

The war in Ukraine has dominated discussions at the United Nations General Assembly.
Russia's Foreign Minister put up a defence of Moscow's so-called military operation.
But there has been plenty of strong condemnation from other nations.

1:44 ( https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=n6lVKkyLqsE )

43margd
Set 25, 2022, 7:11 am

Zoya Sheftalovich zoyashef | 8:58 PM · Sep 24, 2022:
Contributing editor @POLITICOeurope, editor of Brussels and London Playbooks. Based in Sydney, born in Ukraine.

Russian family members now referring to Putin's "Magilizatzia".
It's a play on words.
In Russian, a "magila" is a grave, and "mobilizatzia" is mobilization.
This sort of thought crime was unthinkable a week ago.

44margd
Set 25, 2022, 7:32 am

Coups in the Kremlin
What the History of Russia’s Power Struggles Says About Putin’s Future
Sergey Radchenko | September 22, 2022

...there is no shortage of possible usurpers. The president’s coterie of sycophants, crisis managers, and would-be heirs are a colorful bunch. They were selected for their unquestioning loyalty to Putin, but loyalty is a relative concept in a highly treacherous environment. None of them can fully trust Putin. None of them can afford to trust one another. And if they are brought to office through a coup, they will likely want to put significant daylight between themselves and their predecessor, including—and perhaps especially—his failures in Ukraine. Even if they come to power after Putin dies, they may chart a new course that leads away from imperialism.

COMRADES AND RIVALS {Kruschev - Brezhnev}

NAKED AMBITION
...fundamentally, palace coups were about personal relations in the corridors of power: naked ambitions and the backstabbing of rivals.
...failure of the military brass or the security services to capitalize on the intrigue.
...never a trace of foreign involvement

JOCKEYING FOR POSITION
...candidates are implicated in Putin’s many violent acts, including his invasion of Ukraine...But the Kremlin’s power plays rarely involve questions of principle, and successors may well break with the behavior of predecessors when convenient.
...may ultimately continue the war to placate Russia’s ultranationalists or simply because of inertia...if Putin does go, the world should use his departure as a chance to resume negotiations for Russia’s withdrawal from Ukraine...

https://www.foreignaffairs.com/russian-federation/coups-kremlin

45lriley
Modificato: Set 25, 2022, 10:50 am

>44 margd: the number of ‘accidental’ deaths of prominent and high functionaries in the world of energy and tech in recent weeks I kind of think speaks to Putin’s awareness/paranoia in this regard. Falling out of windows or off of boats or found hanging in their garages sometimes surrounded by dead family members. Among the elite where real loyalty lies to Putin and his regime vs. one’s own self preservation in all this is a pretty open question. No doubt he is murdering people he has doubts about.

46John5918
Set 25, 2022, 12:27 pm

Art of dissent: How Russians protest the war on Ukraine (Washington Post)

They risk jail, stigma and fines. But Russian protesters are finding creative ways to get their message out...

47margd
Set 26, 2022, 11:26 am

Michael McFaul McFaul | 12:46 AM · Sep 26, 2022:
{frmr US ambassador to Russia}

Name one world leader who would support Putin's use of nuclear weapons in Ukraine. Name one Ukrainian leader who would call for surrender if Putin used a nuclear weapon.
-----------------------------------------------------------
Lones Smith @LonesSmith | 1:03 AM · Sep 26, 2022:
There is no endgame after nuclear weapons in which Russia wins or Putin emerges with a livable life.

I think even he can do this calculus.

48margd
Set 26, 2022, 11:33 am

The Kyiv Independent @KyivIndependent | 6:26 PM · Sep 25, 2022:
⚡️ Head of Russian Orthodox Church says sacrificing life in war against Ukraine ‘washes away sins.’

Patriarch Kirill, the head of Russia’s Orthodox Church, said during a sermon that when a soldier, driven by a sense of duty, dies on the battlefield, his death is “equal to the sacrifice.”

keyenuta harrison @keyenuta
Oh no they're going crusade mode

49margd
Set 26, 2022, 12:05 pm

Samuel Ramani @SamRamani2 | 4:36 PM · Sep 25, 2022:
DPhil/PhD Intl Relations @UniofOxford Assoc Fellow @RUSI_org Bylines @ForeignPolicy, WaPo etc 3 forthcoming books HurstPublishers

Russia announces that it is recruiting North Korean workers to develop the Far East
Up to 50,000 North Koreans could arrive in Russia. The next step, Donbas?

Omega Man ericyoung
I’m sure he’d like to draw North Korea into his war.

Blake Allen @Blake_Allen13
Or bare minimum to ease the labor shortages from the eastern regions that’ll come from the conscription of the locals. North Korean workers have already had a long presence in the work camps of Russia’s Far East

Jens Walter @JensWalter12
Journalist @SimonOstrovsky: 17:41 vimeo of N Koreans toiling in e Russia logging camps ( https://twitter.com/JensWalter12/status/1574322567950716928 )
{SAD!!!}

50margd
Modificato: Set 26, 2022, 12:56 pm

Samuel Ramani @SamRamani2 | 8:54 AM · Sep 26, 2022:
DPhil/PhD Intl Relations @UniofOxford, Assoc Fellow @RUSI_org, Bylines @ForeignPolicy, WaPo etc 3 forthcoming books HurstPublishers

BREAKING: Japan announces the suspension of sales of goods that could be used for chemical weapons production to Russia {AP}

The suspension applies to 21 Russian organizations including chemical laboratories

A likely reaction to Russia's nuclear brinkmanship rhetoric even though Moscow has told the OPCW {Organisation for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons} and repeatedly insisted that it has no chemical weapons stocks
_________________________________________

The Kyiv Independent @KyivIndependent | 5:36 AM · Sep 26, 2022:

"As the world's only country to have suffered nuclear attacks, we strongly demand that the threat or use of nuclear weapons by Russia should never happen," said Japan's Chief Cabinet Secretary Hirokazu Matsuno.

51margd
Set 26, 2022, 3:31 pm

Samuel Ramani @SamRamani2 | 4:13 PM · Sep 25, 2022:
DPhil/PhD Intl Relations @UniofOxford, Assoc Fellow @RUSI_org, Bylines @ForeignPolicy, WaPo etc 3 forthcoming books HurstPublishers

Arson of military installations in Russia is on the rise as backlash against mobilisation grows
Map in Russian
( https://twitter.com/SamRamani2/status/1574130030761766912/photo/1 )

Map translated into English
( https://twitter.com/candyhog/status/1574133999811067904/photo/1 )

52John5918
Modificato: Set 27, 2022, 12:24 am

Putin’s ‘chef’ Prigozhin admits creating Wagner mercenary outfit in 2014 (CNN)

Yevgeny Prigozhin, one of Russia’s most elusive oligarchs, now admits to founding the private military company known as Wagner in 2014, reversing years of denials about his connection to the shadowy outfit. Prigozhin is so close to the Kremlin that he is known as Russian President Vladimir Putin’s “chef”... he went on to say that the 2014 Russian-backed separatist movements in the Donbas in eastern Ukraine were the catalyst for its founding... CNN has tracked Wagner mercenaries in the Central African Republic, Sudan, Libya, Mozambique, Ukraine and Syria. Over the years they have developed a particularly gruesome reputation and have been linked to various human rights abuses... Observers say Wagner has often acted as an unofficial arm of Russian foreign policy, even though mercenary activity is technically illegal in Russia. For years, Prigozhin has consistently denied links to the Wagner group. He has filed court cases against Russian media outlets that had investigated him, and belittled journalists who questioned him. But his announcement Monday appears to be the culmination of a gradual emergence from the shadows over the course of the past several weeks – and may reflect shifting power balances in Russia as Putin’s campaign in Ukraine falters...


Russia: man shoots officer drafting residents for war in Ukraine (Guardian)

A Russian draft officer has been shot by a man angry at his friend’s conscription and another man has set himself on fire in a protest as opposition to Vladimir Putin’s announcement of a mobilisation for the war in Ukraine grows. Protests also continued for a third day in Russia’s Dagestan region, where officers have fired automatic weapons in the air to disperse angry crowds. Meanwhile, thousands of cars have lined up at the Russian borders carrying young men seeking to flee the country in order to escape the draft. There is a sense that tensions are rising across Russia, as angry showdowns at local draft centres play out in videos published to social media and rumours circulate about an impending closure of the borders or even martial law...

53margd
Modificato: Set 27, 2022, 12:55 pm

Debate on Twitter whether possible sabotage happened in waters of a NATO country...

Nord Stream pipelines hit by suspicious leaks in possible sabotage...
Amanda Macias Holly Ellyatt | Updated Tue, Sep 27 202211:38 AM EDT

European officials, meanwhile, are investigating unexplained leaks affecting both the Nord Stream 1 and 2 pipelines that bring natural gas from Russia to Europe via the Baltic Sea.

Both Europe and Russia have both said sabotage cannot be ruled out as the cause of the damage, but the finger of blame is being pointed at Moscow — which is yet to directly respond to the accusations...

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/09/27/russia-ukraine-live-updates.html
---------------------------------------------------------------

Carl Fridh Kleberg @FridhKleberg | 9:19 AM · Sep 27, 2022:
Foreign news reporter SVT . Russia/Ukraine/MENA/etc. Usual caveats. BJJ, hård musik, ett skoningslöst krig mot trist utrikesjournalistik.

Two powerful explosions were detected near the Nord Stream pipelines yesterday, Swedish seismologist monitor SNSN tells national TV (@svtnyheter ).

"There are no doubts that these we explosions", SNSN Director says. (link in Swedish).

Seismolog: Två explosioner intill Nord Stream

{Google translate: The gas leaks on Nord Stream 1 and 2 are being investigated by German authorities as deliberate attacks. Now SVT can reveal that measuring stations in both Sweden and Denmark registered strong underwater explosions in the same area as the gas leaks on Monday.

- There is no doubt that these are blasts or explosions, says Björn Lund, lecturer in seismology at the Swedish National Seismic Network, SNSN....}

https://www.svt.se/nyheter/inrikes/svt-avslojar-tva-explosioner-intill-nord-stre...

54margd
Set 28, 2022, 1:25 pm

The Kyiv Independent @KyivIndependent | 3:24 AM · Sep 28, 2022:

⚡️ Governor: First mobilized Russian troops arrive at the front line in Ukraine.

Only one week after Russia announced "partial" mobilization, the Russian conscripts have already arrived, sent to replenish the ranks of Russia's 1st Tank Army, said Luhansk Oblast Governor Haidai.

"They didn't undergo any training at all," Haidai said on Telegram.

55davidgn
Set 28, 2022, 1:28 pm

>53 margd:

https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/declassified_137930.htm
"LORD ISMAY
Lord Hastings Lionel Ismay was NATO’s first Secretary General, a position he was initially reluctant to accept. By the end of his tenure however, Ismay had become the biggest advocate of the organisation he had famously said earlier on in his political career, was created to “keep the Soviet Union out, the Americans in, and the Germans down.”"

56davidgn
Modificato: Set 28, 2022, 4:57 pm

57margd
Modificato: Set 29, 2022, 6:50 am

Russians Against Mobilisation: protests, opinions, people fleeing ( 10:44 )
Niki Proshin ( St. Petersburg ) | Sep 24, 2022

Partial mobilisation was announced in Russia. Many people gathered for a protest, many people are fleeing from Russia right now. This video I want to share some details of these events, and also share some personal feelings after observing the protests in Saint Petersburg.

I also prepared a few street interviews with Russians to show what people think about mobilisation. Thanks to Dima from Russia for filming these interviews for us...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6OVFfN0w7nU&t=333s
via https://twitter.com/florian_krammer/status/1574095047787745283

{Niki has now left Russia.}

58margd
Set 29, 2022, 7:27 am

Luke Coffey @LukeDCoffey | 1:56 PM · Sep 28, 2022:
Senior Fellow—Hudson Institute.
https://twitter.com/LukeDCoffey/status/1575182612020137986

🚨Congress is about to vote on another Supplemental package for Ukraine. Expect a lot of disinformation about US aid to Ukraine in the coming days.

🧵Here is a thread debunking the 10 most common myths 👇🏻

Myth 1: We’re writing “blank checks” to Ukraine. No oversight.
Reality: There has never been more accountability & transparency measures in place for US foreign assistance than what was found in the Ukraine Supplemental last May. ~10% of the bill was on oversight. Just read it.

Myth 2: we have already given Ukraine $53 billion.
Reality: This claim is very misleading. $53bn is total for both Supplementals to date—but *billions of dollars* go towards other stuff like replenishing US military stocks, deterrence measures outside Ukraine, energy issues, etc

Myth 3: Congress hasn’t had “enough time to debate” US aid to Ukraine.
Reality: The last Supplemental was only ~30 pages long. Like the forthcoming Supplemental, it also wasn’t a surprise. Ukraine has been the most discussed/debated foreign policy issue in USA since Feb!

Myth 4: This money to Ukraine would be better spent on “the wall” or baby formula or whatever.
Reality: Frankly, this argument is so moronic I’m not even going to address it.

Myth 5: Europe needs to “spend more”
Reality: As % of GDP Estonia, Latvia, Poland, Lithuania, Norway, Slovakia, Czech, UK, & Portugal have given more to Ukraine than US. Regarding refugee support the US is at the bottom. Can Europe do more? Yes. But they’re already doing a lot.

Myth 6: US should only give “military aid”
Reality: It’s not just Ukrainian military at war with Russia. The *whole of Ukrainian society* is at war. 45% of Ukraine’s GDP gone due to war. Police/govt/etc must function. Total war requires total govt. US aid must be comprehensive.

Myth 7: US weapons are ending up on black market/not getting to frontlines
Reality: There is no evidence weapons are going missing. On the contrary, recent events in Kharkiv and Kherson prove otherwise—and also prove the effectiveness of US aid.

Myth 8: No aid until corruption is dealt with
Reality: Must be realistic. Many know corruption is an issue. But even during war Ukraine has made progress. Demanding major reforms during a war of nat’l survival is like asking to build a ship while already at sea…in a hurricane

Myth 9: Russia is a distraction. Focus must be China.
Reality: Russia is China’s junior partner. A defeated Russia means a weaker China. China is also watching how we support Ukraine, so a strong & victorious Ukraine makes Taiwan stronger. Read more Mackinder & less Mahan 😉

Myth 10: Aid to Ukraine puts “America last”
Realty: Many foreign policy challenges we face are too complex to be boiled down to bumper sticker slogans like "America first" or "America last". Anyone using these terms describing US role in world knows little about foreign affairs.

We need to *want* Ukraine to win more then we *hope* Russia will lose. Forget “pre-Feb 24th lines”. Our planning assumption should be to equip Ukraine for the FULL RESTORATION of its internationally recognized borders, including Crimea.

Arm Ukraine to win—not just to survive! 🇺🇦

59margd
Set 29, 2022, 8:56 am

Putin's war may lose them future ag markets as well as fuel. Canada also has a bumper crop this year--small producer globally, but almost entirely exported. US crop not so good this year, I think -- droughts?

Wandile Sihlobo @WandileSihlobo | 10:45 AM · Sep 28, 2022:
Agricultural economist and writer from South Africa. Some of my writings are here (http://wandilesihlobo.com).

South Africa’s 2022 wheat production forecast lifted by 2% from last month to 2,2 million tonnes. We are now roughly at the same levels as last year’s crop, which was the largest in two decades. We could see further improvements in the coming months with good rains in the WC.

Graph (https://twitter.com/WandileSihlobo/status/1575134578964107264/photo/1)

60aspirit
Set 30, 2022, 10:50 am

https://abcnews.go.com/International/live-updates/russia-ukraine/?id=88905005

Putin is formally annexing four Ukrainian regions after sham voting held by gunpoint of his invading forces. Is this supposed to make him look less like a horribly dishonest president who attacks his own people in a weak move to maintain his stolen power, or is he enjoying his evil villain role too much to care about the long-term consequences to Russia, to its ancestral "motherland", and to his own reputation?

61margd
Modificato: Set 30, 2022, 3:24 pm

Michael McFaul {frmr US Ambassador to Russia} McFaul | 2:56 PM · Sep 29, 2022:

Russia is the largest country in the world. Russians don't need more land, but a leader & government that will actually develop the land they already have.
__________________________________________

More than one-fifth of Russian households do not have access to indoor plumbing.

https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2019/04/02/indoor-plumbing-still-a-pipe-dream-for...

62aspirit
Set 30, 2022, 3:56 pm

U.S. announces new sanctions on Russia in response to Ukraine annexation | CNBC
https://www.cnbc.com/2022/09/30/us-set-to-announce-new-russia-sanctions-over-ukr...

Key Points:

• The Biden administration announced new economic sanctions on hundreds of Russian officials in response to the Kremlin’s illegal annexation of four regions of Ukraine.

• The newly sanctioned entities include shell companies formed specifically to evade previous sanctions on Russian military suppliers.

• They also expand prior sanctions on top Kremlin officials to include their wives and children, a sign that officials believe the family sanctions are having an impact.

63davidgn
Set 30, 2022, 6:19 pm

"RUSSIA-UKRAINE | A Real Nuclear Threat?"
Prof. James Ker-Lindsay
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Mz2YcYqU7sc

64margd
Ott 1, 2022, 8:44 am

Putin "annexes" Ukrainian land. Meanwhile in US:

Adam Kinzinger🇺🇦🇺🇸✌️ (US Rep) @AdamKinzinger | 10:59 PM · Sep 30, 2022:
Nice work CPAC

Photo Trump-branded Russian flag at CPAC
https://twitter.com/AdamKinzinger/status/1576044130211614720/photo/1
_____________________________________________

Rick Wilson (Lincoln Project) @TheRickWilson | 10:08 PM · Sep 30, 2022
For y'all coming in later, this is the tweet Putin's little minions at CPAC deleted:

Screenshot of deleted CPAC tweet:
https://twitter.com/TheRickWilson/status/1576031268453728256/photo/1
_____________________________________________

Adam Kinzinger🇺🇦🇺🇸✌️ @AdamKinzinger | 10:09 PM · Sep 30, 2022

Screen shot Tucker Carlson rooting for Russia
https://twitter.com/AdamKinzinger/status/1576031565624143872
______________________________________________

65margd
Modificato: Ott 1, 2022, 9:14 am

Sabotage our pipeline, will you?
Annex Ukrainian territory, will you?
Germany promises Moldova military aid

Samuel Ramani @SamRamani2 | 6:14 AM · Oct 1, 2022:
DPhil/PhD Intl Relations @UniofOxford, Assoc Fellow @RUSI_org, Bylines @ForeignPolicy, WaPo etc 3 forthcoming books HurstPublishers

BREAKING: Germany promises Moldova military aid

German Defence Minister Christine Lambrecht's strategy to help Moldova counter Russian aggression has 2 dimensions

The first is the provision of drones, the second is helping Moldova destroy and secure Soviet-era munitions

66margd
Modificato: Ott 1, 2022, 10:39 am

Samuel Ramani @SamRamani2 | 6:27 AM · Oct 1, 2022:
DPhil/PhD Intl Relations @UniofOxford, Assoc Fellow @RUSI_org, Bylines @ForeignPolicy, WaPo etc 3 forthcoming books HurstPublishers

A leading Russian Telegram channel predicts that Russia will lose Lyman within 1-3 days and that Russia's efforts are already pivoting towards the defence of Kreminna in Luhansk

The full post here. There seems to be confusion about the reasons for this defeat but it is being linked to the fall of Balakliia in Kharkiv:

Colonelcassad
На 13 часов.
1. Командование на краснолиманском направлении текущий оперативный кризис купировать до сих пор не может (причины этого до конца не ясны) и события продолжают развиваться по неблагоприятному ...
сценарию.
2. Красный Лиман судя по всему будет полностью потерян в ближайшие 1-3 дня и на повестку дня выходит уже способность войск и командования обеспечить стабилизацию фронта в районе Кременной.
3. Продолжение отступление теперь и под Красным Лиманом очевидно является следствием предшествующего поражения под Балаклеей.
t.me/boris_rozhin/65766
673.8K views Boris Rozhin,
Oct 1 at 06:19

67margd
Ott 1, 2022, 10:47 am

Amazing, given their challenges, what Germany and England are willing to do:

Samuel Ramani @SamRamani2 | 2:31 PM · Sep 30, 2022:
DPhil/PhD Intl Relations @UniofOxford, Assoc Fellow @RUSI_org, Bylines @ForeignPolicy, WaPo etc 3 forthcoming books HurstPublishers

BREAKING: Britain imposes sanctions on 700 goods that are critical for Russia's industrial and technological capabilities

These sanctions align with US sanctions on suppliers of technology to the Russian military

It also extends to British commercial and transactional services, as the Anglo-Russian economic partnership remains on the brink of total evisceration

68margd
Ott 1, 2022, 10:58 am

Hope all these reports are accurate!
And that eyes in the sky spot any wouldbe saboteurs.

Samuel Ramani @SamRamani2 | 6:57 AM · Oct 1, 2022:
BREAKING: Gas starts flowing through the Norway-Poland pipeline

Gas flows are moving via Denmark and the Baltic Sea

As promised, the Nord Stream leak has caused no delay in the supply of gas from Norway to Poland

Stefan Avramov 🇧🇬 ✌️🏻🇺🇦 @stefanavramov
Today gas starts flowing through the Bulgarian - Greek pipeline too!

Ladela @Ladela51237346
Apparently the Azerbaijan - Bulgaria pipeline has also just opened.

69margd
Modificato: Ott 1, 2022, 4:37 pm

Konstantin Kisin @KonstantinKisin | 4:28 AM · Oct 1, 2022
Satirist, Co-Host of @triggerpod, 'Centrist Chad'. Book: 'An Immigrant's Love Letter to the West'

I've tried to explain to people in the West what is actually happening in Russia but seeing is believing.

This is from yesterday's state-organised rally in Red Square. Remember, nothing gets said at these without approval from the top. The very top.
0:46 ( https://twitter.com/KonstantinKisin/status/1576126809993011205 )

It's time for Western leaders to unplug the fingers from their ears and understand what's happening. A dark time is coming.

🐧🥝Schwulemiker🥝🐧 @Schwulemiker
The crowd doesn't seem that enthusiastic.

Margaret Bidinotto @MargaretBidino1
I was just thinking the same thing.
__________________________________________
ETA

Samuel Ramani @SamRamani2 | 11:24 AM · Oct 1, 2022:

Vladimir Putin on nuclear war in 2018:

"We will go to heaven as martyrs, and they will just drop dead. They will not even have time to repent for this"

Alex Kokcharov @AlexKokcharov
And, importantly, he used the word "сдохнут" which is normally used to describe death of animals, not of people. So more correct translation would be "they will just drop dead like animals".
https://www.bbc.com/russian/media-45903216
___________________________________________
ETA

Samuel Ramani@Sa mRamani2 | 7:29 AM · Oct 1, 2022
The Red Square annexation celebrations were made possible by busing. This also points to a lack of spontaneity

0:11 From о.Фёдор
https://twitter.com/SamRamani2/status/1576172344661651456

70margd
Ott 1, 2022, 12:13 pm

Samuel Ramani @SamRamani2 | 8:07 PM · Sep 30, 2022:
This statistic will likely not deter Putin from using tactical nuclear weapons if he wants to go in that direction, but instead, will ensure that he frames it as a response to NATO aggression against Russia. This is exactly what the Kremlin is pushing.

Quote Tweet
Russia Watcher @russia_watcher · 17h
The idea of using a nuclear weapon against 🇺🇦 is highly unpopular in 🇷🇺. Only ~4% of the Russians we surveyed selected "tactical nuclear strike" from a list of options they would support as a response to 🇺🇦's counteroffensive. (Respondents could select multiple options.) 5/

Bar graph how Russia should proceed
https://twitter.com/russia_watcher/status/1575975146560421888/photo/1

For more insights from our daily public opinion surveys, see our website: http://russiawatcher.com. /END

71margd
Ott 1, 2022, 3:08 pm

Samuel Ramani @SamRamani2 | 4:18 PM · Sep 30, 2022:
BREAKING: The U.S. says Ukraine's NATO membership application
"should be taken up at a different time"

73davidgn
Ott 1, 2022, 3:13 pm

>71 margd: No shit...

74margd
Ott 1, 2022, 3:28 pm

Illia Ponomarenko🇺🇦 @IAPonomarenko | 6:20 AM · Oct 1, 2022
Defense reporter with @KyivIndependent

Ukrainian troops have entered Lyman
1:02 ( https://twitter.com/IAPonomarenko/status/1576155093245693954 )
_________________________________________________

POLITICO: Russia retreats from Lyman a day after Putin’s annexation

Reuters: Russia abandons Ukrainian bastion, Putin {Chechen} ally suggests nuclear
response

CNN: Russian forces retreat from strategic Donetsk city a day after Moscow's
annexation of the region
_________________________________________________

Two Cities, Two Armies: Pivot Points in the Fight in Ukraine’s East
Thomas Gibbons-Neff and Natalia Yermak | Sept. 26, 2022

The battle for the critical Donbas region in Ukraine is centered on two strategically important cities: Lyman, held by the Russians, and Bakhmut, held by Ukraine. The fighting over the cities is fierce as both armies race to claim new ground.

...Lyman, a railway juncture that serves as an important supply hub on the western edge of the Donbas. Russian forces control the city, but Ukraine is hoping to use it as a gateway to push farther east and maintain its momentum.

Bakhmut is an entry point to part of the region still held by Ukrainian forces. Capturing it would also give Russia a win after being routed in humiliating fashion in the north. The Russians have been shelling Bakhmut incessantly for the past three months.

The fight for Bakhmut and Lyman comes down to strategic positioning for both sides before the front lines stagnate in the cold weather. If the cities are under Ukrainian control, Kyiv’s forces will be prepared to claw back lost territory in the coming months. Under Russian occupation, and with reinforcements, they will help Russia put Donbas’s two major cities — Kramatorsk and Sloviansk — under increasing threat and more frequent shelling...

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/09/26/world/europe/ukraine-donbas-russia-lyman-bakh...
_________________________________________________

Russian troops leave Lyman to avoid encirclement, Russian defense ministry says
Darya Tarasova and Josh Pennington | 1 Oct 2022

Russian troops have withdrawn from the town of Lyman in eastern Ukraine to avoid being surrounded by Ukraine's army, the Russian Ministry of Defense said Saturday.

...Russia state media reported that the reason for the withdrawal was due to Western-made artillery and intelligence...

https://www.cnn.com/europe/live-news/russia-ukraine-war-news-10-01-22/index.html

75davidgn
Modificato: Ott 1, 2022, 4:24 pm

See, Biden does have a jobs plan.
Soaring natural gas prices are prompting European companies to move their manufacturing operations to the US
https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/commodities/europe-natural-gas-prices-e...

I suppose it's a matter of counting the years before they start singing all the verses of the Deutschlandlied again...

76aspirit
Modificato: Ott 1, 2022, 5:20 pm

>75 davidgn: See, Biden does have a jobs plan.

He has since the beginning of his presidential term.

https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/statements-releases/2021/03/31/fact-she...

Updates:
https://www.whitehouse.gov/?s=jobs+plan

Renewable energy has always been a part of the plan. Is this news to anyone but the most fanatical Trumpsters?

What else is news: "At UN, Russia, US Trade Barbs Over Nord Stream Damage" per Voice of America.

https://www.voanews.com/a/at-un-russia-us-trade-barbs-over-nord-stream-damage-/6...

The USA, EU, NATO, and Russia all agree the damage to the natural gas pipelines points to sabotage, but they disagree about who is the likely perpetrator. The US envoy has confirmed that Washington, DC leadership was not involved.

corrected a typo

77davidgn
Ott 1, 2022, 5:22 pm

>76 aspirit: You seem to have mistaken my sardonic quip for something else.

79margd
Modificato: Ott 1, 2022, 6:38 pm

How it started: 3-day operation.
How it's going: Ukraine might start bombing Moscow?? (Russian talk TV)

Samuel Ramani @SamRamani2 | 6:09 PM · Oct 1, 2022:
DPhil/PhD Intl Relations @UniofOxford, Assoc Fellow @RUSI_org, Bylines @ForeignPolicy, WaPo etc, 3 forthcoming books HurstPublishers

The loss of Lyman (not mentioned directly) is interpreted by Fedorov as a sign that Ukraine will start a war to liberate annexed territories. This narrative could be used by Putin to rally support for mobilization and justify his nuclear threats

Quote Tweet
Julia Davis @JuliaDavisNews · 24m
Columnist @TheDailyBeast, creator of the Russian Media Monitor, sanctioned by Russia, member of @TheEmmys. I watch Russian state TV, so you don't have to.

Reality sneaks up onto unsuspecting Russian state TV hosts. One pundit reveals they aren't supposed to mention Lyman (although the host denies it). He says that everyone knows things aren't going well for the Russian troops. Another pundit says Kyiv might start bombing Moscow.
1:59 ( https://twitter.com/JuliaDavisNews/status/1576331334317879297 )

80davidgn
Modificato: Ott 1, 2022, 11:49 pm

I always appreciate a take from Col. Wilkerson (Gen. Powell's former chief of staff)
For Humanity’s Sake, Ukraine War Must End – Wilkerson
"An important Chinese commentator warns that a cornered Russia may lead to “unimaginable consequences”. Larry Wilkerson says there must be immediate negotiations to end the war to avoid the danger of nuclear conflict and to refocus the world on the climate crisis. Wilkerson and Jay also discuss rising fascism in the U.S.
https://theanalysis.news/for-humanitys-sake-ukraine-war-must-end-wilkerson/

Already overtaken by events, I'm afraid.

81lriley
Ott 2, 2022, 2:35 am

>80 davidgn: looks to me David like Putin has bitten off a lot more than he can chew and I’m not seeing how this ends apart from Ukraine retaking all the conquered territory even from before. It seems almost an inevitability and hard to say it’s not justified or that they don’t have enough European support even if the United States were to drop out but yeah there is this assumption that Putin won’t take more drastic action and resort to nukes.

82davidgn
Modificato: Ott 2, 2022, 2:50 am

>81 lriley: What worries me on that point, Larry, is exactly how white the Ukrainians are being bled in these offensives. They are already fully mobilized, while the Russians, at least on paper, will be able to raise a lot more cannon fodder. Sending waves of humanity into the grinder has always worked for them in the past. The war may look very different a few months from now. But in the immediate term, things appear to be rather dire for the Russians, there's no doubt about that.

83aspirit
Ott 2, 2022, 8:20 am

>82 davidgn: Throwing the Russians who are most marginalized and least supportive of Putin at the Ukrainians could only weaken the invading lines further. Seems to me, that choice is a sign Putin or his military leaders believes the fight is going to be within actual Russian borders soon. Why else keep so many pro-war people at home for now?

84lriley
Ott 2, 2022, 8:50 am

>82 davidgn: What I would think should worry the Russians more is their inability to deal with any of the logistical issues that being in a war implies which has hampered them right from the beginning. It's almost as if Putin and other Russian leaders really did believe that they could waltz right in and take over the entire country without any resistance at all....and however popular that assumption was with the Russian public at large at the beginning support has eroded and plummeted since. No doubt the Russians can reach for 300,000 or 600,000 more untrained conscripts (while hundreds of thousands of others attempt to leave Russia proper altogether)....can they feed, clothe and arm them and provide material armored support? and up until now they still haven't established air superiority and don't look likely to. Even worse winter is coming on....those troops will need cold weather gear---they'll definitely need to be fed and you can't leave them out in ditches/trenches 24/7. The destruction in cities such as Mariupol would lead me to believe that most infrastructure is down in much of what they have taken.....water, sewage, electricity for light and heating etc. Above all that is the poor leadership throughout by the Russian officer class and the poor morale infecting their troops at the front which is only going to become worse when you force an even more unprepared influx of reluctant draftees into the mix....and who is going to be leading them into battle? Non-coms?....retired military officers? They don't have the industry to provide....there's been no solution for logistical issues, economic sanctions are hurting them badly and even most of their would be allies are keeping their distance.

I think Putin's increasing paranoia in the face of all this does make him dangerous in the sense that he might indeed resort to unconventional last resort weapons. I have no idea what kind of guardrails (if any) are in place to stop him if he decides to go that route. He seems to have lost a great deal of public support even if he still has the Duma cowed into following him over a cliffs edge. As far as the Ukrainians.....they are winning and retaking territory almost at will. Right now I don't see them stopping at all until they've retaken pretty much everything. Negotiation doesn't seem to be in the cards.

85lriley
Ott 2, 2022, 9:07 am

Just to add if Putin does go nuclear that will be very bad for everybody and practically everything but rats and cockroaches on the planet. Depending on the aftermath that could trigger retaliatory nuclear events but almost with certainty one way or another Russia then becomes a pariah state---no friends anywhere. It's pretty much suicidal.

86davidgn
Modificato: Ott 2, 2022, 6:19 pm

>83 aspirit: Yes and no. There will be plenty of stories along the lines you imagine, and many that do not follow those lines. Russia is bigger and more diverse than you might imagine. The mobilization effort, insofar and for as long as the regime survives it, will be a shitshow, but promises to be at least partially effective.
>84 lriley: Logistics and supply issues will continue to be major stumbling blocks. In many respects, the longer the war goes on, the more that's likely to be the case. And if I'm thinking that, the Russian leadership surely is as well. ETA: The danger is that the concept of "escalate to de-escalate" might start to sound appealing, at which point we might see "limited" mushroom clouds. https://globalsecurityreview.com/nuclear-de-escalation-russias-deterrence-strate... ETA, key quote, "Succinctly put, Russia’s entire national security strategy is predicated on the concept of nuclear de-escalation."
(In relation to which, it should ABSOLUTELY not be ignored that the official Kremlin definition of what constitutes "Russian territory" has just altered sharply. What is not important is the international legitimacy of the referenda, but the internal Russian political logic. The situation is exceedingly dangerous.)

A related danger is what happens when "threat to the existence of the Russian state" collides with an increasingly ingrained notion of "L'état, c'est moi."
>85 lriley: Let's hope we don't have to find out.

I've been watching Vlad Vexler's latest, and I highly recommend his channels for honest, culturally informed background and assessment.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-0KWA_ItYpE
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2uQ1y8RrBao

87kiparsky
Ott 2, 2022, 6:43 pm

>85 lriley: if Putin does go nuclear that will be very bad for everybody and practically everything but rats and cockroaches on the planet.

Very bad for everybody, yes, but not a rats-and-cockroaches scenario. What Putin is threatening is the use of "tactical" nuclear weapons, in Ukraine. This would be extremely bad in many ways, but it would certainly not lead to the doomsday scenario that we grew up with in the cold war era. If Russia were to use a tactical nuclear weapon in Ukraine, you and I and everyone outside of Ukraine would never know until we read about it in the newspaper. That's the whole point of tactical nuclear weapons: they're a nuclear weapon that is small enough to not justify a tit-for-tat strategic nuclear response. Horrifying, but that's how these people think.

Fortunately, it's extremely unlikely that we'll find out. Power always has limits, and I think Putin is pretty hard up against those limits. Trying to get Russians to deploy nuclear weapons in the Ukraine - territory that they're trying to occupy on the grounds that Russians and Ukrainians are one people - would be pushing his luck way too far. I may be wrong, but I think he'd be the next one to fall down the stairs if he were to try it.

88davidgn
Modificato: Ott 2, 2022, 6:58 pm

>87 kiparsky: If you replace "certainly not" with "not certainly" in your second sentence, I might be able to swallow it. cf. https://www.businessinsider.com/tactical-nuclear-weapons-escalation-us-russia-wa...

Or more substantively:
https://www.ucsusa.org/resources/tactical-nuclear-weapons

Basically, the wargames we have to date predict that use of tactical weapons leads to use of strategic ones. You are far, FAR too blithe. And that's the problem. You are not alone.

Additional thoughts:
https://carnegieendowment.org/2022/03/03/how-does-this-end-pub-86570

And ETA:
https://warontherocks.com/2022/09/escalation-management-and-nuclear-employment-i...

89kiparsky
Ott 2, 2022, 7:09 pm

>87 kiparsky: I suppose we have no way to know. I personally don't think that the US launches against Russia for deploying a weapon in Ukraine, and I don't think England or any other Continental nuclear power does. But yeah, I could be wrong, and I certainly hope I'm right in the second part of the analysis, which is that Putin won't be able to put us in a position to find out.

To be clear on this, there are certainly scenarios where I think the use of tactical nuclear weapons triggers an escalation of the sort you're envisioning, I just don't think the Ukraine is one of them, particularly considering how close the weapon would be to the Russian border. Essentially, your nuclear powers would be in a position where they'd have to decide whether to risk going to all-out war, or to just agree to agree that Russia had detonated a weapon on its own territory (which they're allowed to do) and deserves a round of Even More Sanctions for being extremely naughty.

I think they would pick door #2 - and believe me, this is not coming from a lack of cynicism.

90lriley
Ott 2, 2022, 7:23 pm

>89 kiparsky: even tactical weapons will cause a lot of environmental damage worldwide. Using them he does no one any favors and I’d expect almost universal condemnation. The question of whether Putin will go that far—it’s really risky for him and he risks isolation—-would he still be able to hold onto power? Think it would be a matter of time before he’s overthrown.

91aspirit
Ott 2, 2022, 7:41 pm

>89 kiparsky: Hmm. I disagree.

The official stance from the USA is that Russia's annexation was illegal. That's not likely to change in Putin's favor under the current presidential administration.

Joe Biden might be staunchly against Americans in combat as well as less inclined as his recent predecessors to drop bombs on other countries; however, he also has a record of supporting extreme military action to fulfill promises.

Additionally, the UN has been discussing what to do about war crimes (or crimes against humanity), what is how any nuclear attack in a populated area would be labeled at this time.

92kiparsky
Ott 2, 2022, 8:24 pm

>90 lriley: Yes, I agree that any nuclear detonation would amount to several catastrophes. "Does no one any favors" is a hell of an understatement!
But just to make sure we're on the same page, when you start talking "rats and cockroaches", that sounds to me like the sort of global apocalypse scenario that I grew up hearing about, the unrestrained global nuclear war scenario. And what I'm saying is, a tactical nuclear strike by Putin, while it would be a horrible thing, is not likely to lead to the "rats and cockroaches" global devastation.

>91 aspirit: war crimes (or crimes against humanity), what is how any nuclear attack in a populated area would be labeled

Well, yeah, if you're envisioning Putin dropping a bomb on a city, that would be an entirely different scenario from what I'm talking about about. Is that what you think Putin was threatening - throwing a nuclear weapon at Kyiv or Odesa?

93aspirit
Ott 2, 2022, 8:38 pm

>92 kiparsky: On a city or on troops outside of one.

94kiparsky
Ott 2, 2022, 8:54 pm

>93 aspirit: Well, those are two very different scenarios. I honestly don't know what would lead to an attack on a population center, and I don't think I could even begin to speculate about what the response would be. But if you were talking about a tactical usage - which generally is taken to mean the use of small nuclear weapons on military forces, as opposed to civilian populations - then we're in a situation where the Western nuclear powers have to decide whether they respond with nuclear force, conventional force, or political force. And in that case I think you end up in a situation where there's no stomach for nuclear, nobody wants to send their conventional forces in, and you're left with political force by default.

Now, I'm hearing a lot of disagreement on this, and that's fine, but I'd like to hear more about what y'all imagine happening to lead to a nuclear escalation following a tactical nuclear strike by Putin against Ukrainian troops. Who launches, against whom, with what, and why? I'm taking the cynical position: nobody launches against nobody, with nothing, because the reason to do so does not outweigh the political and military risks of doing so. Instead, there is a good old fashioned massive global condemnation, Russia is even more of a global pariah than they already are, and if Putin was able to launch the strikes without getting himself chucked out a window, then he survives and rides out his time in office.

That's just a story, though. Happy to hear others.

95davidgn
Modificato: Ott 2, 2022, 9:24 pm

>94 kiparsky: As a start, from the Carnegie link.
"The nuclear option that has been most frequently discussed in the past few days involves Russia using a small nuclear weapon (a “non-strategic nuclear weapon”) against a specific military target in Ukraine. Such a strike might have a military purpose, such as destroying an airfield or other military target, but it would mainly be aimed at demonstrating the will to use nuclear weapons, or “escalating to de-escalate,” and scaring the West into backing down.

Some analysts have questioned Russia’s ability to actually carry out such an operation, given its lack of practice. Unfortunately, this isn’t the only or even the most likely option available to the Kremlin. Based on war games I ran in the wake of Putin’s 2014 invasion, a more likely option would be a sudden nuclear test or a high-altitude nuclear detonation that damages the electrical grid over a major Ukrainian or even NATO city. Think of an explosion that makes the lights go out over Oslo.

Those war games indicated that the best U.S. response to this kind of attack would be first to demonstrate U.S. resolve with a response in kind, aimed at a target of similar value, followed by restraint and diplomatic efforts to de-escalate. In most games, Russia still responds with a second nuclear attack, but in the games that go “well,” the United States and Russia manage to de-escalate after that, although only in circumstances where both sides have clear political off-ramps and lines of communication between Moscow and Washington have remained open. In all the other games, the world is basically destroyed."
https://carnegieendowment.org/2022/03/03/how-does-this-end-pub-86570

96kiparsky
Modificato: Ott 2, 2022, 10:49 pm

>95 davidgn: Okay, that's an interesting story. It seems to me that that's a scenario that can't possibly benefit Putin (seems obvious, but it's nice that the wargames confirm it). So, presuming that Putin is not suicidal and wants to gain some benefit from his first strike, I'm curious about why this would be the more likely option?

I guess I'm making some assumptions here. I'm assuming that the war games have some predictive value, and that both sides find this sort of predictive value worth having, and the both sides have hit on this method of divination. This is just an assumption that both sides are rational actors and have devoted some effort to trying to solve this problem and have become aware of something that has been discussed extensively in technical literature and pop culture for many decades. Basically, if there is any value in the war games technique the we must assume that both sides have hit on roughly the same predictions. So why then would the strategy described, which both sides know is a losing strategy, be the "more likely" option?

ETA: and to go full Smullyan, why would we trust war games that predict that someone who can be assumed to be using a mode of prediction as good as or better than these war games would do something that winds up in many scenarios with "the world basically destroyed"? Doesn't that suggest that there's something deeply wrong with these war games?

97davidgn
Modificato: Ott 3, 2022, 2:23 am

>96 kiparsky: There's nothing infallible about wargames, and some are better than others.
I'll note in passing that the sometimes their results are sufficiently displeasing that the participants intentionally "cheat" https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Millennium_Challenge_2002 . (ETA see also https://warontherocks.com/2015/11/millennium-challenge-the-real-story-of-a-corru...
That said, I claim no particular expertise (though the following is now on my reading list: https://digital-commons.usnwc.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1578&context=n... ).

I do appreciate the views of relevant professionals on the question, and much of my background understanding is based on various military officers' talks over the years, so I was very happy to find a discussion with Col. Wilkerson on this exact issue.
https://theanalysis.news/ukraine-and-the-doomsday-machine-larry-wilkerson-and-pa...
Perhaps we can start by discussing his take once I've had a chance to review it myself?
ETA: 21:26 for most relevant portion, 30 mins for the soundbite.

98margd
Ott 3, 2022, 5:21 am

Samuel Ramani @SamRamani2 | 10:23 AM · Oct 2, 2022:
DPhil/PhD Intl Relations @UniofOxford, Assoc Fellow @RUSI_org, Bylines ForeignPolicy, WaPo etc 3 forthcoming books HurstPublishers

BREAKING: Poland completes the construction of a fence with Belarus

The head of Poland's National Security Department says illegal entry is impossible

This also limits Belarus's ability to weaponize migration, which is a potential hybrid threat that Russia and Belarus pose to Poland and Lithuania

99margd
Ott 3, 2022, 5:32 am

Francis Scarr @francis_scarr | 1:12 AM · Oct 3, 2022:
With @BBCMonitoring watching Russian state TV so you don't have to

By now we've all seen the hunt for scapegoats by Russian military bloggers playing out following the defeat to Ukraine in Lyman

But what did state TV's mammoth Sunday night news shows have to say about it?

A brief 🧵

Well, Channel One's programme didn't even mention Lyman!
Instead, war correspondent Dmitry Kulko said in his report that "in the last month since Kyiv announced its offensive on Lysychansk, the 20km frontline has turned into a cemetery for Ukrainian fighters"
Screenshot https://twitter.com/francis_scarr/status/1576802307911532544/photo/1

NTV was only slightly less evasive. Anatoly Mayorov mentioned it but gave the impression that 🇷🇺 had dealt 🇺🇦 a blow
"Kyiv sent its most combat capable units to the slaughter in Lyman, where we were forced to withdraw to different positions because of the threat of encirclement"
Screenshot https://twitter.com/francis_scarr/status/1576802313318305794/photo/1

Rossiya 1 was the only one that got even close to the truth
Dmitry Kiselyov admitted to a "difficult" situation in Donbas
But he insisted that 🇷🇺 forces were continuing to "beat off the desperate onslaught of Ukrainian army troops that are armed to the teeth with Nato weapons"
Screenshot https://twitter.com/francis_scarr/status/1576802318041108481/photo/1

The channel's war correspondent Yevgeny Poddubny said 🇷🇺 forces were trying to establish new lines of defence at Kreminna to "stop the formations of the Kyiv regime from building on their success" and moving on towards the city of Severodonetsk // END
Screenshot https://twitter.com/francis_scarr/status/1576802323191713792/photo/1

100margd
Ott 3, 2022, 5:41 am

Julia Davis (The Daily Beast) @JuliaDavisNews | 12:48 AM · Oct 3, 2022:

Tonight on Russian state TV: the mood is grim, look at their faces. Dmitry Sablin, Deputy Chairman of the Defense Committee, admits that Russia desperately needs "to stop and regroup" and is experiencing all sorts of shortages, compared to Ukraine that has it all —and then some.
5:30 ( https://twitter.com/JuliaDavisNews/status/1576796427409559558 )

101margd
Ott 3, 2022, 5:42 am

And winter is coming...

Mikhail Khodorkovsky (English)@mbk_center | 11:14 AM · Oct 2, 2022

Russian🇷🇺 deputy of 8th State Duma Andrey Gurulev just can't understand what happened to 1 500 000 complete military uniforms🪖. It's almost like they never existed at all!
or
maybe they existed only on paper?

Screenshot https://twitter.com/mbk_center/status/1576591424812089344/photo/1

102margd
Modificato: Ott 3, 2022, 5:51 am

WarMonitor🇺🇦 @WarMonitor3 | 3:28 PM · Oct 2, 2022:
Reporting On Wars-Currently #UkraineWar🇺🇦 #OSINT

Russian forces requesting urgent air support on social media on the Kherson frontline near the breakthroughs.

Yes you heard that right
On social media😂

103davidgn
Modificato: Ott 4, 2022, 3:34 am

>96 kiparsky: Here's Gen. Petraeus. It's quick. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IBrbsUn6dqQ
Basically, his proposition is that if nukes are used, the US and NATO are going to enter the war. Precisely the direct military confrontation between two nuclear powers that was carefully and successfully avoided throughout the Cold War. Probably the initial response will not be nuclear, but where do you draw the escalatory ceiling? Really, that's all you should need to know to feel queasy.

As for the Carnegie piece and the outcomes of its author's wargames, I think I see the line of reasoning. It's difficult to see situations where tactical nukes would lead, in the present theater, to clear tactical advantages, so any such use would be primarily symbolic. If you're going to make a symbolic gesture, you might as well make it a grand one, and one that will not immediately draw a strategic nuclear response. Given those parameters, the Carnegie author's scenarios start to make sense.

104margd
Ott 4, 2022, 6:46 am

How could Ukraine NOT target that?

Telegraph World News TelegraphWorld | 4:11 PM · Oct 3, 2022:
The latest world news from the Telegraph. { The Daily Telegraph, known online and elsewhere as The Telegraph, is a national British daily broadsheet }

A train operated by the secretive nuclear division and linked to the 12th main directorate of the Russian ministry of defence was spotted in central Russia over the weekend heading towards the front line in Ukraine.

https://telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2022/10/03/nuclear-weapons-convoy-sparks-fear...
A screenshot of a clip showing the military convoy travelling through central Russia towards the front line in Ukraine

Aerial photo https://twitter.com/TelegraphWorld/status/1577028615824252928/photo/1

105margd
Modificato: Ott 4, 2022, 8:27 am

Putin's ally calls for national mobilization for a special agricultural operation:

Samuel Ramani @SamRamani2 | 8:08 PM · Oct 3, 2022:

Alexander Lukashenko {Belarus} calls for national mobilization to harvest agricultural products

1:23 https://twitter.com/SamRamani2/status/1577088289894375424
From Anton Gerashchenko

106margd
Ott 4, 2022, 8:37 am

> 103 The US can rattle sabres, also? By a retired general, so deniable?

I would think US and allies would be more likely to undertake a whole lot of (deniable?) sabotage and support of Ukrainians than to confront Russia directly over tactical nuclear weapons?

Might an out for Poutine be a dirty bomb? Blow up nuclear plant(s) when winds blow from east, blame Ukrainians, and leave saying Russia doesn't want their stinkin' radioactive lands anyway?

We can hope that someone in Russia decides one man's vanity is not worth all this death and destruction. Maybe a laundress who lost a dear one in Ukraine?

107margd
Ott 4, 2022, 8:47 am

Mark Hertling (retired US Lt General) @MarkHertling | 2:44 PM · Oct 3, 2022
Wait…this can’t be true. Iran said they didn’t give drones to Russia. How can this be?

Quote Tweet
Rob Lee @RALee85 | 1:43 PM · Sep 23, 2022
PhD student @warstudies. Senior Fellow @FPRI. Previously USMC, @ColumbiaSIPA, @CentreAST. Focused on Russian defense policy.

Ukraine’s Southern Air Command says it shot down an Iranian Mohajer-6 UCAV.
https://t.me/dvish_alive/17819
0:14 https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1573367460283154433

That captured Iranian Mohajer-6 UCAV with a Qaem-5 munition. 2/
https://vk.com/milinfolive?w=
Photos
https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1577004615807414272/photo/1
https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1577004615807414272/photo/2
https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1577004615807414272/photo/3
https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1577004615807414272/photo/4

Comments: writing on drone is in English, apparently always in English on these things?}

108lriley
Modificato: Ott 4, 2022, 12:42 pm

>106 margd: So far Biden has kept it to arms and military aid.....which I'm more than fine with. I don't want to see our troops in the middle of this and FWIW the Ukrainians seem to be doing just fine fighting with their own people and some foreign volunteers.

I imagine Putin whether it's a tactical nuke or sabotaging a nuclear plant will do something pretty diabolical and probably sooner rather than later. Nothing's worked out for him and his feelings are pretty hurt.

A couple other things though that Putin risks with a tactical strike on Ukrainian territory that more international pressure on China and India might cut him off from the marketplace for his oil that he's more and more dependent on and/or that prevailing winds might boomerang radiation clouds right back into Russia or at his allies in the region.

109margd
Ott 5, 2022, 2:00 pm

What next? Zelensky declares Russian nukes a Ukrainian federal asset?
Putin decress ownership like Trump thinks declassification!

Samuel Ramani @SamRamani2 | 11:55 AM · Oct 5, 2022:
https://twitter.com/SamRamani2/status/1577689035564351488

BREAKING: Vladimir Putin issues a decree to make the Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant a Russian federal asset

Putin's move will create a pretext for Russia to consolidate long-term control over the Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant and divert electricity from it to Crimea/occupied areas of Ukraine
-----------------------------------------------------------------

or @twotime2equals4 | 11:05 AM · Oct 5, 2022:
There is no diplomacy with russia, the day the IAEA visits Kyiv for talks about ZNPP, putlin announce they transfer the facility to russian federal ownership.

Text decree in Russian ( https://twitter.com/twotime2equals4/status/1577676472483028993/photo/1 )

Quote Tweet
Rafael MarianoGrossi @rafaelmgrossi | 11:05 AM · Oct 5, 2022:
Director General of the @IAEAorg International Atomic Energy Agency

On our way to Kyiv for important meetings. The need for a Nuclear Safety and Security Protection Zone (NSSPZ) around #Zaporizhzhya Nuclear Power Plant is now more urgent than ever.
Photos
https://twitter.com/rafaelmgrossi/status/1577675445335638017/photo/1
https://twitter.com/rafaelmgrossi/status/1577675445335638017/photo/2

110margd
Ott 5, 2022, 2:08 pm

Samuel Ramani @SamRamani2 | 9:01 AM · Oct 5, 2022:
Vladimir Putin has elevated Ramzan Kadyrov to the post of Colonel-General*

Interesting timing, given Kadyrov's nuclear threats and strident criticisms of the Russian Defence Ministry

{Speculation on Putin's reasons at https://twitter.com/SamRamani2/status/1577645187198746625}

* Ramzan Akhmadovich Kadyrov is a Russian and Chechen politician who currently serves as the Head of the Chechen Republic. He was formerly a member of the Chechen independence movement, and is a colonel general in the Russian military. Wikipedia

111bnielsen
Ott 5, 2022, 4:32 pm

Anders Puck Nielsen explaining Nord Stream sabotage and Putin. Highly recommended:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hk-0qJXyido

112davidgn
Modificato: Ott 5, 2022, 10:19 pm

>111 bnielsen: How does one sabotage a pipeline in a manner that is below the detection threshold? That's not an "operational choice." I don't really buy it. Either the pipes are breached and flooded or they're not. Anything less is a software problem and operational hiccup, not a billions in infrastructure problem necessitating substantial physical reconstruction over a timeframe that may exceed the duration of the conflict. And if the pipes are breached and flooded, you can't exactly "hide" that.
So under that framing, what we actually have is an "operational choice" not between means of execution, but between operations. That is, between definitively putting the pipeline out of commission for the foreseeable future -- i.e. taking it off the table entirely as a strategic matter for the duration of the conflict -- and some hypothetical aim on the lines of "undermining confidence in the reliability and security of the pipeline." Those are two very different operations that are being intentionally conflated.

A worthy PR effort, though, I'll give it that. :-)
ETA: I should add that it is not lost on me that in the long term, the narrative that the U.S. is behind this in some capacity will fuel far-right European nationalist and populist movements -- who are also those least likely to keep their mouths shut about it. Regrettable. Of note, that is not a "now" problem. The "now" problem is to keep the Germans on board with the war effort (no cold feet allowed, except the literal sort) and to create "facts on the ground" ensuring that the future European energy mix includes as little as possible coming from Russia (or at least from Russia as currently constituted). Short-term thinking? You bet. But enough said.
https://nypost.com/2022/10/04/jeffrey-sachs-yanked-off-air-after-accusing-us-of-...

(/sayingthequietpartoutloud)

114lriley
Ott 6, 2022, 1:18 am

>112 davidgn: FWIW deniability has been not just a tactic of outwardly right wing regimes like Putin’s but pretty much a use if necessary tactic of special or secret services of western democracies pretty much since those services were founded. People shouldn’t kid themselves that we are above doing this or that…..and by the way such operations are exactly some of the documentation to be found in our National Archives as Top Secret.

From my perspective Russia is the aggressor here and I don’t blame the Ukrainians for trying to push them out altogether. There are risks to that for sure though.

115margd
Ott 7, 2022, 8:50 am

The rascals sure are showing their stripes these days...Belarus, Saudi, North Korea. Iran--except that its antipathy to USis somewhat understandable, IMHO.

China must be increasingly upset with the disruption to global economy that Putin's 3-day special military operation has wrought?

Samuel Ramani @SamRamani2 | 8:54 PM · Oct 6, 2022:
DPhil/PhD Intl Relations @UniofOxford, Assoc Fellow @RUSI_org, Bylines @ForeignPolicy, WaPo etc. 3 forthcoming books HurstPublishers..;

Alexander Lukashenko says that Belarus is facing an attack with "tactical nuclear weapons" from Poland

Lukashenko is holding talks with Russia on mitigating this risk and vows to take measures

As Russia's nuclear brinkmanship rhetoric intensifies, the risk of Russia deploying nuclear weapons in Belarus, which has been legalized, grows

116margd
Ott 7, 2022, 3:57 pm

Alexander S. Vindman @AVindman | 11:54 AM · Oct 7, 2022:
.@elonmusk Starlink system reportedly down along the Ukraine frontline, undermining Ukraine war effort.

In the context of the past week…deeply disturbing if intentional & meant to press the Government of Ukraine. I really hope Musk & Starlink make a statement explaining this.

I really hope this is wrong or easily explained.

Quote Tweet
Christopher Miller @ChristopherJM | 11:38 AM · Oct 7, 2022
Ukraine correspondent for FT. 12+ years in Ukraine and Eastern Europe.

NEW: Ukraine troops reported outages of Starlink devices on frontline, hindering efforts to liberate territory from Russian forces, Ukrainian officials & soldiers told us...

Ukrainian forces report Starlink outages during push against Russia
Some SpaceX devices stopped working when soldiers liberated territory, Kyiv officials say
Mehul Srivastava and Roman Olearchyk in Kyiv, Felicia Schwartz in Washington, Christopher Miller in London an hour ago
https://ft.com/content/9a7b922b-2435-4ac7-acdb-0ec9a6dc8397

117aspirit
Modificato: Ott 7, 2022, 9:01 pm

Question: Can Starlink interfere with replacement communications systems? Because it seems to me that in the hypothetical scenario in which Elon Musk throws a fit over not being able to sway Ukrainian leadership to hand their country to Russia could have greater consequences than his system not working.

I know there was a level of desperation to the decision to use it--and perhaps some ignorance of Musk's reputation in the US as an adolescent personality who sporadically supports the goals of dangerous autocrats--but I was surprised since the start that there's been little suspicion of Starlink.

118margd
Ott 8, 2022, 5:17 am

>117 aspirit: I think I read somewhere that US was funding Starlink in Ukraine? if this was an intentional withdrawal of service, unreliable Musk may have lost himself a whole lot of future government business in automotive, communications, space, etc.

119davidgn
Ott 8, 2022, 5:20 am

>118 margd: Dollars to donuts the Russians figured out how to jam it.

120John5918
Ott 8, 2022, 5:33 am

The fear factor (The Tablet, hard copy, 08 October 2022*)

Did Putin invade his neighbour and annexe swathes of its territory because he aspires to rebuild the Russian empire - or because he is frightened of the West's superior power and increasing success in drawing people in Ukraine, Georgia, Belarus and Moldova away from Russia's orbit?... Along with the impression of Russia's weakness, what is emerging from Putin's addresses in the past two weeks is an even stronger strain of fear... of what he, and many Russians, see as the West's superior power and malign intent... If it is fear, rather than imperial ambition, that explains why Putin went to war, this {threat to use nuclear weapons} is a warning that should be taken more seriously than it has.


* The article is available free of charge online but you need to register to read it.

122margd
Modificato: Ott 8, 2022, 6:16 am

>119 davidgn: Let's hope. This is a whole 'nother level of pique than Musk calling the Thai cave rescuer " pedo-guy", when offer of container was rejected.

One would think, though, that Russians would not have jammed Starlink only in areas they controlled? They would have knocked out communications in all of Ukraine if they could?

We'll probably see, one way or another, in how US treats Musk businesses going forward?

123davidgn
Ott 8, 2022, 6:16 am

>122 margd: Jammer range is limited.

124margd
Modificato: Ott 8, 2022, 6:56 am

>123 davidgn: I s'pose, too, if Russia was limited in area it could jam, it would be in Russia's interest to let Ukrainians THINK Musk was responsible if it led to mistrust?

125margd
Modificato: Ott 8, 2022, 10:41 am

Oliver Carroll @olliecarroll | 12:26 AM · Oct 8, 2022:
Foreign Correspondent for TheEconomist

More detail on damage to both road and rail bridges linking Crimea to Russia.
This is big.

Photo ( https://twitter.com/olliecarroll/status/1578602609463545857/photo/1 )

Jim Garwood @_JimGarwood:
Even bigger if those cars on that rail bridge continue to burn.
__________________________________________

The Intel Crab @IntelCrab | 12:15 AM · Oct 8, 2022:
The internet's favorite crustacean. As seen in @washingtonpost , @NewsHour , & your local seafood market. News desk manager & journalism student at UAB.

Rail link = ✂️
Road link = ✂️

Photo ( https://twitter.com/IntelCrab/status/1578600047616614400/photo/1 )
___________________________________________
ETA:

Francis Scarr @francis_scarr | 4:11 AM · Oct 8, 2022:
With @BBCMonitoring watching Russian state TV so you don't have to

Ukrainian social media is an absolute meme goldmine this morning
0:16 ( https://twitter.com/francis_scarr/status/1578659441159057408 )
___________________________________________

Vladimir Putin: Date of birth October 7, 1952...age 70 years

Putin’s 70th birthday is hailed in Russia and derided in Ukraine.
Valeriya Safronova and Megan Specia | Oct. 7, 2022
https://www.nytimes.com/2022/10/07/world/europe/putin-birthday-russia-ukraine.ht...
____________________________________________

126margd
Modificato: Ott 8, 2022, 11:53 am

Security camera footage from bridge--
Russians in Crimea have fewer exit options now--not by land, sea, bridge, air?
A good negotiations position for Ukrainians?
Russians could be deterred from blowing up nuclear plant?

0:23 ( https://twitter.com/mrsorokaa/status/1578641347593936896 )
__________________________________________________

Clear photo of damage:

Russia-Ukraine WarBlast Damages Crimea Bridge, Dealing Blow to Russian War Effort

...A fireball consumed two sections of the only bridge linking the occupied Crimean Peninsula to Russia on Saturday, disrupting the most important supply line for Russian troops fighting in southern Ukraine and dealing an embarrassing blow to the Kremlin...

The blast and fire sent part of the 12-mile Kerch Strait bridge tumbling into the sea and killed at least three people, according to Russian authorities, who said a Ukrainian truck bomb had caused the blast. That claim could not be independently verified and the Ukrainian government, which lauded the damage, stopped short of taking responsibility for the attack...

https://www.nytimes.com/live/2022/10/08/world/russia-ukraine-war-news

127margd
Ott 8, 2022, 11:23 am

Michael McFaul McFaul | 6:04 PM · Oct 7, 2022:
Frmr US ambassador to Russia

Putin is forced to sell his oil to China at a giant discount;
is getting no arms or sophisticated technology from the PRC;
could not get Xi to utter the word Ukraine at their summit in Samarkand; and
didnt get a birthday call today from Xi.
Some "special relationship."

128margd
Modificato: Ott 8, 2022, 11:36 am

A butcher from Syrian operation?

Samuel Ramani @SamRamani2 | 10:26 AM · Oct 8, 2022:
DPhil/PhD Intl Relations @UniofOxford, Assoc Fellow @RUSI_org, Bylines @ForeignPolicy, , WaPo etc. 3 forthcoming books HurstPublishers

BREAKING: Sergei Shoigu* confirms Sergei Suvorikin's** appointment as commander of Russian forces in Ukraine

Surovikin was praised during the June 2022 Luhansk offensive for improving battlefield coordination from Dvornikov's time and aiding the victory in Lysychansk

Surovikin has similar success in Syria and was at point rumoured to succeed Valery Gerasimov

* Sergei Kuzhugetovich Shoigu is a Russian politician who has served as the minister of defence of Russia since 2012. Shoigu has served as the chairman of the Council of Ministers of Defense of the Commonwealth of Independent States since 2012. Shoigu was the minister of emergency situations from 1991 to 2012. Wikipedia

** Sergei Vladimirovich Surovikin is a Russian Armed Forces army general and Commander of the Aerospace Forces. He was in charge of setting up the Main Directorate of the Military Police, a new organisation within the Russian Army. Wikipedia

129margd
Modificato: Ott 8, 2022, 11:44 am

olexander scherba🇺🇦 @olex_scherba | 10:28 AM · Oct 8, 2022:
6 years in 🇺🇦 diplomatic service. Ukraine’s Ambassador to Austria (2014-2021). Author of “Undiplomatic Thoughts” (2021). Currently NAK Naftogaz
https://twitter.com/olex_scherba/status/1578754239610130432

Ukrainian mil intelligence reports multiple arrests among RU military right now in Moscow. RU guard elite unit moving towards downtown. Exits from Moscow tightly controlled.

Interesting.

https://t.me/DIUkraine/1468
Головне управління розвідки МО України
В москві розпочались арешти військових 📌 В російській столиці розпочався комплекс «заходів» спрямованих проти військових. 📌 Рух в центрі перекрито. 📌 В місто увійшли підрозділи дивізії оперативн...

{Google translate}
Military arrests began in Moscow

📌 In the Russian capital, a complex of "measures" directed against the military began.

📌 Traffic in the center is blocked.

📌 Units of the operational division named after Dzerzhinsky {Bolshevik revolutionary and official, born into Polish nobility 1877-1926} - the "elite" of the Russian Guard - entered the city.

📌 They are moving to the center together with police units.

📌 It is known about numerous arrests, detentions and blocking of military personnel.

📌 Instead, all military units on the perimeter of Moscow have been put on high alert.

GUR in other social networks: 🔹Facebook 🔹YouTube 🔹Viber 🔹Instagram 🔹Twitter 🔹 TikTok
t.me/DIUkraine/1468

130margd
Ott 8, 2022, 12:19 pm

KyivPost @KyivPost | 12:37 AM · Oct 8, 2022
https://twitter.com/KyivPost/status/1578605499838128129

According to data of the russian mass media, "the tank with fuel is on fire."

0:04 ( https://twitter.com/KyivPost/status/1578605499838128129 )
#Crimea #CrimeanBridge
-----------------------------------------------------------

Charles Freedberg @cbergmaga | 12:47 AM · Oct 8, 2022:
Here is the bridge before the explosions. The official explanation {truck bomb} does not account for the 2nd road being damaged.

Photo of bridge before damage
https://twitter.com/cbergmaga/status/1578607945167691777/photo/1

131lriley
Modificato: Ott 8, 2022, 1:19 pm

>129 margd: None of this is going to effectively address their battlefield issues. The majority of Russian troops aren't properly trained and armed. They haven't been able to feed them. They are poorly led. The majority of the Army don't want to be there so morale is low. Arresting people back in Moscow does little if anything to speak to the issues they're having in the Ukraine. Actually it probably takes morale even lower if there's still a lower to go to. I guess losing for so long Vladimir at a loss for any other ideas decided a purge of the military might work. A desperate man doing desperate things.

132margd
Modificato: Ott 8, 2022, 1:56 pm

Mick Ryan, AM @WarintheFuture | 1:24 AM · Oct 8, 2022
Strategist, Leader & Author | Retd Australian Army Major General | @CSIS
Adjunct Fellow | IntellectualEdge | @MilWritersGuild ...

It is too early to ascertain the method of attack and the range of implications of this attack on the Kerch Bridge. It is certainly a punch in the face for Putin on his birthday. A couple of thoughts however in this short (for me) thread.

2/ First dropping a bridge span like this would take a lot of ‘bang’ (explosives) and good demolition design. As a sapper, we plan these kind of things all the time. The hardest bridges to drop are reinforced concrete like this.

3/ The amount of explosive required would be more than a few SF {Special Forces?} personnel could carry. A few trucks, or missiles / bombs would do the trick, if aimed at the right points of the bridge span.

4/ Second, the Ukrainians so far have been excellent at operational design and shaping operations in advance of their advances. This could be part of their design for taking back Crimea in the short term - or part of a deception operation to distract from other areas.

5/ Either way, it presents the Russians with a significant problem. It doesn’t stop resupply to Crimea (there are boats and the route through Melitopol), but it makes holding Melitopol even more important for the Russians.

Map, @TheStudyofWar
https://twitter.com/WarintheFuture/status/1578617218052808704/photo/1

6/ This would be the point in a class that the instructor would ask “so, what do we think the next operational objective for the Ukrainians might be?” Because of this, we may see Russian redeployments in the south, which will unveil other weaknesses & opportunities for #Ukraine.

7/ A third and final point: this is a massive influence operation win for Ukraine. Even if they didn’t do it, it is a demonstration to Russians, and the rest of the world, that Russia’s military cannot protect any of the provinces it recently annexed.

8/ And if we were impressed by the outflow of Russians after the recent naval aviation base attack, the rush to leave Crimea will be probably be even greater now. Lack of confidence in Putin and his military will grow.

9/ I am sure we will learn more details in the coming hours and days. But this ‘smoking incident’ is sure to be linked to other events in Ukraine’s overall military strategy. A bad month for Russia just keeps getting worse. Good. End.
_____________________________________________
:)

Julia Ioffe @juliaioffe | 12:20 PM · Oct 8, 2022:
Founding Partner and Washington Correspondent, @PuckNews

Image ( https://twitter.com/juliaioffe/status/1578782419251257344/photo/1 )

133margd
Ott 8, 2022, 2:10 pm

Andrew A. Michta @andrewmichta | 1:28 PM · Oct 7, 2022:
Dean of the College of International and Security Studies at @Marshall_Center; Nonres Senior Fellow at @AtlanticCouncil.

Reportedly, Russia asked Turkey for 200,000 body armor kits & 500,000 sets of winter gear for its soldiers, but Turkey refused.

If confirmed, this tells you all you need to know about the condition of Putin’s military. As the saying goes, armies run on logistics. Enough said….

134margd
Ott 8, 2022, 2:17 pm

Elizabeth Tsurkov🌻 @Elizrael | 5:16 AM · Oct 8, 2022:
Passionate about human rights. Fellow @NewlinesInst focusing on the Levant. @PUPolitics PhD candidate. Admin @WomenKnowMENA

Only 3 months ago, Russian propaganda was claiming that the Crimea bridge was impossible to attack because of 20 different modes of protection covering it, including military dolphins (#17) https://kp.ru/daily/27390/4584149/
What a colossal failure
Infographic ( https://twitter.com/Elizrael/status/1578675708876193793/photo/1 )

135margd
Ott 8, 2022, 5:18 pm

Samuel Ramani @SamRamani2 | 2:32 PM · Oct 8, 2022:
A train reportedly passes through the railway portion of the Crimea bridge

0:14 ( https://twitter.com/SamRamani2/status/1578815641641189376 )
From Rob Lee

For clarity, Mash is a Russian media source which was founded by former Life News employees. We should be skeptical of a fast Russian repair but this video is circulating in Russia, so it’s worth paying attention to
-----------------------------------------------------------

Anton Gerashchenko @Gerashchenko_en | 5:06 PM · Oct 8, 2022
Ukrainian patriot. Advisor to the Minister of Internal Affairs of Ukraine. Founder of the Institute of the Future. Official enemy of Russian propaganda

Top view of the Crimean bridge
Historical photo {less than 24h ago}

Aerial photo ( https://twitter.com/Gerashchenko_en/status/1578854371676524544 )

136margd
Ott 8, 2022, 5:24 pm

Nick Waters @N_Waters89 | 5:19 AM · Oct 8, 2022:
Digital investigations, Syria, Yemen, now Ukraine. Ex-army. Justice & Accountability @Bellingcat.

I’ve been looking at the Kerch Strait bridge explosion and thought I’d make a thread of things I’ve noticed.

Firstly: the explosion affected the Ukraine-bound lane of the bridge at approximately...

https://twitter.com/N_Waters89/status/1578676557518098438

137margd
Ott 8, 2022, 5:40 pm

Oliver Alexander @OAlexanderDK | 10:16 AM · Oct 8, 2022:
Analyst with a passion for OSINT - Work/Interviews featured in @InsiderNews, @ForeignPolicy, @WashingtonPost, @ORF, @DerSpiegel & @Reuters
https://twitter.com/OAlexanderDK/status/1578751682032197633

First vehicles are now driving over the remaining span.
Traffic moving from Crimea towards Russia.
0:11 ( https://twitter.com/OAlexanderDK/status/1578751246391185408 )

All the non-destroyed rail cars have also been removed from the rail bridge.
Photo ( https://twitter.com/OAlexanderDK/status/1578751682032197633/photo/1 )

While traffic is moving it is extremely limited. From what we can see on the livestream of the bridge, it seems like a handful of vehicles an hour.

Approximately 20 cars being allowed to cross the bridge from Crimea towards Russia lead by a police vehicle.

Interesting post on Ukrainian Telegram channels about the driver of the truck.
Text
{English} https://twitter.com/OAlexanderDK/status/1578769132337909763/photo/1
https://twitter.com/OAlexanderDK/status/1578769132337909763/photo/2
...

138davidgn
Ott 9, 2022, 12:08 am

https://www.businessinsider.com/ukraine-spacex-starlink-outages-report-2022-10?r...

"Ukrainian soldiers have faced outages of Starlink's satellite internet service amid their attempts to free territory that had been conquered by Russian troops, Financial Times reported on Friday.

Two government officials, speaking under the condition of anonymity, told the publication that soldiers had difficulty connecting to the satellite internet service when they entered cities that had only recently been freed from Russian troops.

One government official from Ukraine said that the outages have caused a "catastrophic" loss of communication between the country's military forces. Another official said the lack of internet connection resulted in panicked calls from troops to help lines, FT reported.

Roman Sinicyn, a co-ordinator at a foundation that donates Starlink systems to the Ukrainian armed forces, told FT the issue could be caused by SpaceX representatives working to make sure Russian soldiers couldn't use the technology, as the liberation of some of the areas had not been made public yet at the time of the connectivity issues."

Well, I'd say that probably explains things.

139davidgn
Modificato: Ott 9, 2022, 12:39 am

Meanwhile...
https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/russias-ria-state-agency-reports-fuel-tank-...

The bridge attack was a propaganda coup, but a strategic failure.

Paywalled, so TASS.
https://tass.com/politics/1519817
https://tass.com/russia/1519779

140margd
Ott 9, 2022, 3:31 am

>139 davidgn: US News & World Report picked up the Reuters report, if anyone paywalled out of it:

https://www.usnews.com/news/world/articles/2022-10-08/russias-ria-state-agency-r...

141margd
Modificato: Ott 9, 2022, 5:04 am

When / if Ukraine "wins", should Russia pay reparations? I think 'yes', but an argument can be made for some sort of 'Marshall Plan' lifting sanctions in such a way to support the 'pacifists' who would rebuild Russia over the pugilists?

Julia Davis @JuliaDavisNews | 10:14 PM · Oct 8, 2022
Columnist @TheDailyBeast, creator of the Russian Media Monitor, sanctioned by Russia, member of @TheEmmys. I watch Russian state TV, so you don't have to.

Russian host says the events in Crimea call for an escalation. He demands that New Year's celebrations be cancelled. Instead of Christmas trees, lights and decorations, he says money should be spent on winter uniforms for the troops. More in my article ⤵️
5:12 ( https://twitter.com/JuliaDavisNews/status/1578931784850747392 )

Quote Tweet
Julia Davis @JuliaDavisNews | 5:08 PM · Oct 8, 2022:

Team Putin Wakes Up: We Never Should’ve Laughed at Ukraine
‘UNAVOIDABLE ESCALATION’
Julia Davis | Updated Oct. 09, 2022

As the mood shifts and many Russians want the war to end, Russian propagandists try to scare them by airing their grim predictions as to what Moscow's capitulation would look like.

...not everyone is as receptive to the idea of an indefinite war against Ukraine as Russian public polls alleged. Behind the scenes, many are anxious for the armed conflict to be over. In light of this rapidly growing trend, state TV propagandists have been tasked with convincing the public that unless Russia wins, its citizens would be locked “in concentration camps,” enslaved by the West or killed. {Russian state TV host Sergey Mardan} said, “After the mobilization, I noticed the growth of pacifist inclinations in my circles, among the people of my generation or older. Very cautiously, they’re starting to come out and say how nice it would be if everything came to an end, since we’re not pulling through.”

...Mardan invited his guest, political commentator Evgeny Norin, to specify what Russia’s defeat would look like... “Russia’s defeat would resemble the Mongol yoke, with a modern technological twist… Crimea, Donbas and other contested regions would be taken away, just to put us in our place. From the standpoint of national humiliation, we would be forced to give up Sevastopol. Remember the fate of Serbia and Yugoslavia, who had to give up all of their military and political elites. Of course, many people here would say, ‘So they’ll cut off their heads, no big deal.’ Our soft pacifists say exactly that… Naturally, we’d also be forced to pay an enormous amount of reparations, huge amounts would be taken.”

Mardan and Norin concurred that Russian oligarchs and major companies would find a way not to pay and the cost of reparations would land on everyday citizens. Norin mused that Russia would not be allowed to manufacture anything that is more sophisticated than a foot stool and Western companies would lure away all of the specialists—much as they’re already doing. He predicted: “After the capitulation, we would be unable to offer them anything aside from the joy of standing by your Motherland.”

Norin darkly predicted that Russia’s capitulation “would be like Yugoslavia on steroids,” with decolonization as “a cherry on top.” He said Russia would be forced to break up into at least 10 separate parts, with Sharia law being instituted in at least some of them...

https://thedailybeast.com/russian-state-tv-host-sergey-mardan-says-ukraine-has-b...
--------------------------------------------------------------

David Frum @davidfrum | 10:17 PM · Oct 8, 2022:

Bet the Ukrainians didn't wait until mid-October to order winter uniforms for their troops

142John5918
Ott 9, 2022, 5:04 am

U.S. urges for action to stop Wagner’s illicit trafficking of natural resources in Africa (Sudan Tribune)

The United States urged prompt action against the Russian private military company, the Wagner Group, saying they exploit African natural resources to fund Moscow’s war machine and support human rights violations. In a speech at a UN Security Council briefing on the financing of armed groups and terrorists through the illicit trafficking of natural resources on October 6, U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations Linda Thomas-Greenfield expressed growing concerns on Wagner activities across Africa...

143margd
Ott 9, 2022, 5:20 am

140 contd. (Russian media reaction)

Julia Davis @JuliaDavisNews | 9:01 AM · Oct 8, 2022
Columnist @TheDailyBeast, creator of the Russian Media Monitor, sanctioned by Russia, member of @TheEmmys. I watch Russian state TV, so you don't have to.

First reactions from top Russian propagandist Vladimir Solovyov*:
https://twitter.com/JuliaDavisNews/status/1578732189725782016/photo/1
https://twitter.com/JuliaDavisNews/status/1578732189725782016/photo/2
https://twitter.com/JuliaDavisNews/status/1578732189725782016/photo/3

* Vladimir Rudolfovich Solovyov is a Russian television presenter, writer and propagandist. He is an anchor on the television show Evening with Vladimir Solovyov on Russia-1. Wikipedia
__________________________________________

Russia Finally Admits It's Fighting 'War' in Ukraine as Facade Cracks
Isabel van Brugen | 10/6/22

Russian state TV has for the first time described President Vladimir Putin's full-scale invasion against Ukraine as a "war," as cracks begin to show nearly eight months into the conflict.

Putin ally and Russian TV presenter Vladimir Solovyov, nicknamed "Putin's voice" for his stridently pro-Kremlin views, used the word "war" to describe events in Ukraine on his Russia-1 show, Evening with Vladimir Solovyov, on Wednesday.

...Carnegie Endowment for International Peace...rapidly unfolding events in Russia are effectively transforming the conflict in Ukraine from a "special operation" on someone else's territory into a war to defend supposedly Russian land....

https://www.newsweek.com/russia-war-ukraine-state-tv-vladimir-solovyov-putin-all...

144margd
Ott 9, 2022, 7:56 am

Samuel Ramani @SamRamani2 | 7:49 PM · Oct 8, 2022:

Russian MP Pyotr Tolstoy says that Russia should bomb Ukraine into the 18th century and then rebuild it

Tolstoy calls for attacks on “government shelters” which presumably means Kyiv decision making centres and also “roads from Poland”

{Translated fr Russian}
Petr Tolstoy
Stop waiting!

The answer should be as tough as possible: bridges, power plants, all roads from Poland, headquarters and government shelters. We will have to drive Ukraine into the 18th century. Then, after the victory, we will restore everything.

Pity the Ukrainians. But you need to understand: the current state, when the operation is underway and our guys are fighting, and somewhere they are organizing holidays and fireworks, has already dragged on. We must get together and start. And spit on the West, for us now it is more important to mobilize in the minds of the Russian people. Only in this way will victory be ours!

t.me/petr_tolstoy/1552
235.9K viewsedited
Oct 8 at 13:46

https://t.me/petr_tolstoy/1552

145margd
Ott 9, 2022, 8:56 am

>141 margd: contd.
Julia Davis @JuliaDavisNews | 10:35 AM · Oct 8, 2022:

Meanwhile in Russia: "This is too complicated for Ukraine, NATO had to be involved."
Screenshot
https://twitter.com/JuliaDavisNews/status/1578755986298241024/photo/1

146margd
Ott 9, 2022, 9:06 am

>144 margd: contd.

Julia Davis @JuliaDavisNews | 11:57 PM · Oct 7, 2022:

State Duma Defense Committee's head Andrey Kartapolov told a disappointed propagandist Vladimir Solovyov that aside from not having enough uniforms and equipment for its forces, Russia may not have enough munitions to destroy all of Ukraine's infrastructure.

7:19 ( https://twitter.com/JuliaDavisNews/status/1578595525548380162 )

147lriley
Modificato: Ott 9, 2022, 9:16 am

>144 margd: What is it going to cost to rebuild the city of Mariupol into what it was? Clearly this guy is out of his mind if he thinks the Russian government has the wherewithal or the willingness to rebuild all of that when they can hardly keep their troops fed, clothed and armed.....and that's just one city and then he's talking about destroying bridges, power plants and whatnot. What it's going to take is years, probably decades and a lot of investment to rebuild what's already destroyed and is the Russian economy in any shape or readiness to do that and I'm thinking probably not.

Mr. Tolstoy is obviously suffering from the same disillusionment and denial as Putin seems to have himself or maybe he's just mimicking it to stay on VP's good side but IMO that denial is what is driving Russia's continuing effort and it's been right there from the beginning. They have not been able to assess issues properly as they've come along.....instead have ignored them and they've piled up and created an insolvable problem for them and the further down the path the bigger the pile gets. Putin's feelings notwithstanding the longer this adventure goes on the bigger the catastrophe it's going to be for the Russian people, the Russian economy and the Russian military. It's as simple as that. This talk about rebuilding Ukraine after bombing the shit out of it is just unadulterated bullshit. Yeah, they probably could do a pretty good job of sending the rockets and missiles in from afar but that's all they're capable of.

148margd
Ott 9, 2022, 10:36 am

Phillips P. OBrien @PhillipsPOBrien
Professor of Strategic Studies, @univofstandrews, Author: How the War was Won, and Second Most Powerful Man in the World. Editor in Chief, War in History
https://twitter.com/PhillipsPOBrien/status/1579081979991326720

Weekend Update--The attack on the Crimean Bridge and what it might say about Ukrainian intentions. Basically Ukraine is pressing in both East and South simultaneously, to see if they can create a new Russian collapse.

There has been talk for a while about whether the Ukrainians are prioritizing the East (Kharkiv) or West (Kherson) and what their ultimate intentions are. This week seems to show that they are pressing both (in different ways) and are looking for some major result by year's end

Though most of the talk was about the Bridge, its important to note that for the last few days, the Ukrainians have continued to press ahead towards Svatove.

Ukraine Battle Map @ukraine_map | 6:47 AM · Oct 9, 2022:
Svatove Front 🗺 (October 9)
Ukrainian Forces 🇺🇦 liberated the village of Stelmakhivka
Within a week, Ukrainian Forces liberated Bohuslavka and advanced 18km to the East liberating the villages of Lozova and Stelmakhivka
They are now only 14km away from the key city of Svatove
Map ( https://twitter.com/ukraine_map/status/1579060990439698432/photo/1 )

They seem to be pressing both on both the north side and south side of the town, in their normal way of trying to find openings without incurring too many casualties (a bit like they did when they enveloped Lyman).

If/when they force the Russian out of Svatove, they are basically forcing a Russian pull back to a point that they could start an even more humiliating campaign for the Russians, to try and envelope Severodonetsk and Lysychansk.
Map ( https://twitter.com/PhillipsPOBrien/status/1579081992184160256/photo/1 )

You would think the Russians would commit what they can to protect Svatove, and Ive seen reports that the Russians are trying hard to hold the city and even thinking about committing what few reserves they have to a counterattack.

Dmitri @wartranslated | 5:22 AM · Oct 9, 2022:
Similar things are happening in the Svatove direction in Kharkiv. Both sides are amassing forces.
🔥 Overall frontline situation:
Currently, the most important factor is not terrain or weather but the availability and quantity of reserves on both sides.

The problem the Russians face is that they have a large, and even more vulnerable Army in the south--around Kherson oblast. The {bridge} attack yesterday showed just how vulnerable that force really is. Here is the long thread from yesterday.
https://twitter.com/PhillipsPOBrien/status/1578630162085605376

The truth was that this thread was in some ways too optimistic about Russian supplies. I wondered if they lost use of the Kerch Bridge whether they could still try and get some supplies into Kherson from the East.

Turns out that this is already almost impossible to imagine as Russia doesnt have a working rail access from the East to Kherson according to the very reliable and knowledgeable @MBielieskov
https://twitter.com/MBielieskov/status/1578640794474336258

In other words, without the Kerch Bridge, thats it for heavy supplies for Russian forces in the Kherson region--you can see just how crucial it is. So this attack really could have been devastating.

The Russians quickly tried to reassure their people that the rail bridge remained open--but we will have to see. Its a question of the weight of freight that the(y) can send down the line. Its a two track line, and one track might take a while to get back into action

So the amount of freight heading down that line in the coming days will be important to see. Because not only does it have to supply Russian forces in Kherson, they need to supply Crimea as well.

For Russian forces in Kherson, this must be very worrying. They already suffered through a major withdrawal this week. They have been forced/pulled back from a large area to the North on the west bank of the Dnipro.

Brady Africk @bradyafr | 8:00 PM · Oct 4, 2022:
In the past five days, Ukrainian forces have liberated more than 1000 square kilometers of occupied territory in southern Ukraine, maps from @criticalthreats
and @TheStudyofWar show.
0:03 ( https://twitter.com/bradyafr/status/1577448482759004160 )

What the Ukrainians probably dont want, is a full withdrawal. Having a large Russian force on the west bank of the Dnipro provides them with a vulnerable Russian target for their superior ranged weaponry. Indeed they probably want

Anton Gerashchenko @Gerashchenko_en | 7:18 AM · Oct 9, 2022
Video by @radiosvoboda about Ukrainian counteroffensive in Kherson region
2:19 ( https://twitter.com/Gerashchenko_en/status/1579068810761744385 )

The Russians are running short of good troops and equipment, so good for Ukraine if they deploy as much of that as they can in the most exposed position possible--Kherson. Especially as at any moment the Ukrainians might be able to cut supplies there.

So Ukraine is shaping the war relentlessly in their favor. They are pressing towards two strategic targets (Svatove and Kherson) that the Russians want to hold, in such a way that they can continue to degrade Russian forces.

It creates such a problem, that Putin might rush angry, ill prepared conscripts into action too soon. The backdrop to all of this remains the worst mass conscription process of the 20th-21st century.

Hanna Liubakova @HannaLiubakova | 4:47 PM · Oct 5, 2022:
Russian media reported that mobilized men in the Belgorod region are rebelling because of terrible conditions, lack of food and roof, and that they were given decommissioned weapons. In the videos, they claim that among 500 new drafters many got cold, weren’t assigned to any unit
0:34 ( https://twitter.com/HannaLiubakova/status/1577762546391650314 )

Here is a short thread by @MarkHertling about what Russians {rushing?} these troops into combat would mean.
https://twitter.com/MarkHertling/status/1577667093071273985

So here we are, Ukraine is basically presenting the Russians with a host of bad choices--and they will have to take one.

149margd
Ott 9, 2022, 12:07 pm

Putin faces more grim choices after blast hits his prized Crimea bridge
Nick Paton Walsh | October 8, 2022

...Russian officials said a limited amount of car traffic had resumed on undamaged sections of the bridge’s roadways by Saturday evening and that train services were resuming on the bridge’s railways. But trucks were being asked to take ferries across the strait, state media reported.

Rickety ferry crossings in bad weather or highly dangerous air cargo flights may now be needed to bolster military shipments into Crimea and towards the frontlines, which will place more pressure on a single railway track further east coming through Melitopol along the Azov Sea coast.

It exposes the staggering 20th century weakness of Russia’s armed forces and occupation: They need railways to get around.

Ukraine has been targeting this system with slow, patient accuracy...

https://www.cnn.com/2022/10/08/europe/crimea-bridge-putin-ukraine-analysis-intl/...

150margd
Modificato: Ott 9, 2022, 2:57 pm

Ukraine: Russian strikes kill at least 12 after bridge blast
JUSTIN SPIKE and ADAM SCHRECK | Sat, October 8, 2022

A Russian missile barrage that crumbled apartment buildings and houses in Ukraine's city of Zaporizhzhia killed at least dozen people, Ukrainian officials said Sunday.

...Following Russian President Vladimir Putin's annexation of the Zaporizhzhia region last week, Russia has repeatedly bombarded the city of the same name...

“Again, Zaporizhzhia. Again, merciless attacks on civilians, targeting residential buildings, in the middle of the night,” Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy wrote in a Telegram post. “Absolute meanness. Absolute evil. … From the one who gave this order, to everyone who carried out this order: they will answer. They must. Before the law and the people,” he added.

...the Zaporizhzhia plant has since lost its last remaining external power source as a result of renewed shelling and is now relying on emergency diesel generators...

https://www.yahoo.com/news/official-strikes-ukrainian-city-zaporizhzhia-05365527...
________________________________________
ETA:

Putin calls Kerch Bridge attack “a terrorist act” by Kyiv
JUSTIN SPIKE and ADAM SCHRECK | 9 Oct 2022

...What Russian authorities are calling a truck bomb...“There’s no doubt it was a terrorist act directed at the destruction of critically important civilian infrastructure of the Russian Federation,” Putin said in a video of a meeting Sunday with the chairman of Russia’s Investigative Committee, Alexander Bastrykin. “And the authors, perpetrators, and those who ordered it are the special services of Ukraine.”

Bastrykin said said Ukrainian special services and citizens of Russia and other countries took part in the attack.

“We have already established the route of the truck,” he said, adding that it had been to Bulgaria, Georgia, Armenia, North Ossetia and Krasnodar — a region in southern Russia — among other places...

https://apnews.com/article/russia-ukraine-putin-9f6099f7ab937d4e6563aa0aaa4a3184

151margd
Ott 9, 2022, 1:12 pm

The Kyiv Independent @KyivIndependent | 9:02 AM · Oct 9, 2022:

⚡️ Ukrainian intelligence: Putin again tries to drag Belarus into open war against Ukraine.

Putin frequently meets with Lukashenko and tries to convince him to fully join Russia in its war against Ukraine, said Vadym Skibitsky, deputy head of Ukraine's military intelligence.