Peter Tanous

It isn't often that a book's thesis is dramatically confirmed within weeks after its publication. The End of Prosperity, completed just after the Presidential nominations in 2008, argues that America's (and most of the world's) unprecedented quarter century run of economic growth was the product of free market policies and that resurrecting the high taxes, trade barriers, monetary excess, government expansion and regulatory overkill of the Johnson-Nixon-Ford-Carter era will inevitably resurrect that period's stagflation and sense of malaise.

The authors devote most of their space to a much-needed history lesson, showing how Lyndon Johnson's tax hikes, aggravated by Nixonian price controls, negated the promise of John F. Kennedy's proto-supply-side economics and led to one of the longest runs of stock market underperformance in our country's history. By the late 1970's, it was conventional wisdom that the economy would never grow again and that Americans ought to adjust to a future no better than the present.

Then came the amazing turnaround under Ronald Reagan. Maybe it was all voodoo economics; if so, invest in witch doctors. In the 300-month period from the trough of the 1981-82 recession (the hard but necessary corrective to embedded inflation), the economy grew 96 percent of the time. The historical average is about two-thirds. The authors clearly admire Reagan's accomplishments, but they are not mere cheerleaders. Nor do they make the mistake of concentrating solely on Reagan's (and their own) signature issue of low taxes. Prosperity has more than one father, and it is even possible, as under Bill Clinton, to raise taxes without catastrophe, so long as one is simultaneously reducing government spending as a share of GDP, entering into free trade agreements, and reforming the anti-growth welfare system.

During the long expansion, there had been two brief, shallow recessions. In 2008, it became evident that a third was under weigh. The unresolved issue, as The End of Prosperity was being written, was whether the economy would bounce back vigorously, as it did after the twin blows of the bursting of the tech bubble and the 9/11 attacks, or languish in a Carter-like coma. The authors worried that one Presidential candidate flatly rejected the prosperity formula, while the other was, at best, a halting defender. A year later, their fears appear to have been well-founded.

As a refresher on the recent history of economic policy, The End of Prosperity is more than adequate, notwithstanding some faults. The style is often annoyingly breezy and cliché-ridden, and the authors are sometimes unfair to their intellectual adversaries. Their caricatured liberal economist, who doesn't think incentives matter and has unlimited faith in the wisdom of government, is a vanishing species.

If current trends continue, the next several years will complete a "natural experiment" in economic policy. We pursued one set of policies and enjoyed 25 fat years. Now a diametrically contrary philosophy reigns. The comparison will be of great interest to the next generation's historians. It's a pity that those of us living now must be the guinea pigs.… (altro)

Editorial Reviews
Amazon.com
It sometimes seems as if there were as many different investment styles in practice today as stocks in which to invest, with virtually every one of them--styles as well as stocks--offering varying levels of appeal to various people. Professional investment consultant Peter J. Tanous has come to understand this after three decades in the field, and in Investment Gurus, he presents a wide range of tactics and strategies that have been developed by acknowledged stock-picking experts. At the heart of this book are Tanous's interviews with 18 top money managers and academics, including Mario Gabelli, William F. Sharpe, Peter Lynch, Laura J. Sloate, and Merton Miller. The book concludes with "Your Roadmap to Wealth," which summarizes the success factors common to each of the money managers interviewed and suggests ways to develop an "intelligent personal investment plan." --Howard Rothman --This text refers to the Paperback edition.

From Publishers Weekly
Can a smart money manager working from the outside revive a bankrupt company with his clients' massive capital and a sharp management agenda? Are "value" stocks better than "growth" stocks? Can anyone "beat the market"? Is volatility okay? What about the role of the Internet in trading? These and other questions vital to stock market investors are aired in this remarkable series of interviews with investment industry leaders by Tanous, whose firm, Lynx Investment Advisory, finds money managers for billion-dollar clients. The author brings out the financial background, strategy and tactics of such mutual-fund miracle men as Fidelity Magellan's Peter Lynch ("what happens to the company... happens to the stock"); "momentum" trader Richard Driehaus ("look for earnings surprises") and "Super Mario" Gabelli, who champions "intrinsic private market value." Other big-name trader/managers also speak out freely here. In closing, the author constructs sample "portfolios" of guru-managed mutual funds for the reader's consideration. $50,000 ad/promo; author tour.
Copyright 1996 Reed Business Information, Inc.
8 of 8 people found the following review helpful:
By far the best "Interviews with Money Managers" book, June 11, 2003
Reviewer: "alexthevc" (Los Angeles, CA USA) - See all my reviews
Tanous's effort is far superior to the other collections of interviews with money managers. Most books of this sub-genre fall into two categories, depending on the author. The first type of author is usually a journalist who knows little about the disciplines of stock picking and running investment funds, and you are usually hard pressed to find any new insight in their books, because they don't know how to ask their subjects the really insightful questions. The second type, which I'll call the John Train style, has a sophisticated investor/fund consultant doing the interviews, and can often produce real insight from the interviewees. The problem with many of these books, and Train's in particular, is that the author is often not trying to interview the successful money managers. Instead, authors like Train are often trying to play gotcha! with their interviewees, subjecting them to asinine questions and frequently diverging from the topics that made you buy their book in the first place. The Money Masters by Train is so full of political tangents and Train's forcing his opinion on the likes of Peter Lynch and Warren Buffett that I've wanted to scream at him at some points.

In contrast, Tanous knows how to ask questions that are of interest to professional and serious amateur investors, and he knows how to stay on topic. He does ask every interviewee about the efficient market hypothesis, but that's a theme of his book and can be excused. What you get from Tanous is an interviewer who knows how to ask really penetrating, really revealing questions of the world's best money managers, and the humility to realize that his readers don't want to know what he, Tanous, thinks, but what his interviewees think! What's more, he managed to get interviews with at least two money managers--Bruce Sherman of Private Capital Management and Scott Sterling Johnston of Sterling Johnston Asset Management--that have excellent track records but who speak very, very rarely to the press. There is real value to Tanous's book, and I'm a better investor for having read it. Serious investors should still read Train's books for their revealing interviews with Buffett, Templeton, Lynch and others, but in Tanous's book, you have all the strengths of the Train books without any of the that author's obvious, glaring shortcomings as a writer and interviewer.

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13 of 18 people found the following review helpful:
Very amusing!, May 24, 2001
Reviewer: A reader
Most of the interviews in this book appear to have been conducted in 1996.

I checked as many of the managers/funds as I could on Morningstar (some of managers have private equity funds, and therefore are not available on Morningstar), and it appears that most of the managers described here have underperformed the market since 1996. Some of the funds (e.g. Linder) have gone out of business or dramatically restructured due to poor performace. Since one of the major themes of the book is to pit the efficient market theory/passive manager (Fama/French/DFA) types against active managers, and the author seems to side with active managers over passive, this is very amusing. It seems that time has proven the contrary of the point the author chose to make.

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4 of 4 people found the following review helpful:
Highly Recommended!, March 16, 2001
Reviewer: Rolf Dobelli (Luzern Switzerland) - See all my reviews
(TOP 50 REVIEWER) (REAL NAME)
Peter Tanous features interviews with 18 individuals he identifies as top, common stock investment consultants - or "gurus." His choices are based on his work as a consultant identifying investment advisers for corporations. The consultants he selected for this book represent the major stock investing approaches as growth, value or momentum investors. The interview format lets them speak for themselves. He briefly introduces the book with a primer on basic investment terms and principles, and a summary of major themes. We at getAbstract find the range of views shown very helpful, but note that the book suffers from overwriting and a lack of focus and editing. Some tightening would help highlight the main points in the long interviews. The introduction and conclusion are long and general, and a clearer, more detailed summary would be very welcome. Yet, the book offers a lot of information for the average serious investor, much of it straight from the mouths of some very important horses.

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2 of 2 people found the following review helpful:
worthwhile, January 14, 2001
Reviewer: Robertomelbourne (Melbourne, Australia) - See all my reviews
A terrific book, full of conservative, sensible investment advice, on both growth and value investing on ordinary shares. The overall information provides the need for a complete review of many small investors speculative/gambling approach to investing, and replacement with a conservative yet successful trading plan.

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2 of 3 people found the following review helpful:
A GREAT BOOK ON SUPER STOCK TRADERS, July 22, 2000
Reviewer: Deonarine Gopee (Trinidad and Tobago (deonarine.gopee@usa.net)) - See all my reviews
This book provides a comprehensive coverage of some of the best market players in the world. These people definitely fits the title of "Market Gurus". It may not be too much of an interesting piece ofr traders in other vehicles such as commodities, but for stock traders it is about the best you will find. However, I hope the next edition will include the names of some of the other popular names who are not mentioned here.

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3 of 8 people found the following review helpful:
Learn from the great minds of Wall Street, January 23, 2000
Reviewer: Chris Wong (The Colony, TX United States) - See all my reviews
This book contains personal interviews with the past and present great minds of Wall Street. The interview questions however are very similar for each person, and therefore make this book quite boring after a while. If you are into investing and Wall Street, it's not a bad read.… (altro)