William Knoke

Saturday, July 4, 2009
What Lies Ahead Now That We're Living on Facebook
I read William Knoke Bold New World, Essential Road Map to the Twenty-first Century published in 1996, before the Web had dominated the world as it had 12 years later. However, Knoke was right on. His point is "place". To what extent are individuals who interface on social networks all over the world, work in countries other than where their families live, who take their culture overseas. The book then, is about globalization, one of many. It is interesting, but not outstanding.

While now in Obama's early days there is much talk of returning manufacturing jobs to Americans, in fact with computerization and other forms of productivity manufacturing seems to be going the way of agriculture. Knoke makes much of this trend.

Interesting as his writing of globilization, Knoke's real warning, if the book is about warning, is what he writes of the effect of computers on finance. He points out that in the 1980s derivatives were impossible. They could not be done by hand. He points out Soros's use of computers to make his fortune in derivitatives (Soros is still around) and ofers an important quote

"Derivatives serve as a striking example of our detachment from physical capital in favor of sympolic capital. Derivatives have no underlying physical nature, but are merely complex combinations of symbols".

And then

"The computer revolution has utterly transformed the nature of capital and the role of investment houses in 1992, almost half of Goldman Sachs's#1 billion trading profits from derivatives"

And now, the meltdown.

With unemployment rising are we in for a century long recession only to find that something like the Plague brings wages back up after immense poverty in first as well as third world countries ?… (altro)