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End of an Era: How China's Authoritarian Revival is Undermining Its Rise

di Carl Minzner

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"China's reform era is ending. Core factors that characterized it-political stability, ideological openness, and rapid economic growth-are unraveling. Since the 1990s, Beijing's leaders have firmly rejected any fundamental reform of their authoritarian one-party political system, even as a decades-long boom has reshaped China's economy and society. On the surface, their efforts have been a success. Political turmoil has toppled former Communist East bloc regimes, internal unrest overtaken Middle East nations, and populist movements risen to challenge established Western democracies. China, in contrast, has appeared a relative haven of stability and growth. But as [the author] shows, a closer look at China's reform era reveals a different truth. Over the past three decades, a frozen political system has fueled both the rise of entrenched interests within the Communist Party itself, and the systematic underdevelopment of institutions of governance among state and society at large. Economic cleavages have widened. Social unrest has worsened. Ideological polarization has deepened. Now, to address these looming problems, China's leaders are progressively cannibalizing institutional norms and practices that have formed the bedrock of the regime's stability in the reform era. Technocratic rule is giving way to black-box purges; collective governance sliding back towards single-man rule. The post-1978 era of 'reform and opening up' is ending. China is closing down. Uncertainty hangs in the air as a new future slouches towards Beijing to be born. End of an Era explains how China arrived at this dangerous turning point, and outlines the potential outcomes that could result."--… (altro)
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In 1978 Deng Xiaoping launched his policy of “opening and reform,” which permitted a carefully restricted measure of private enterprise. The official view from Beijing has since been that conditions across the country have continually improved, and some foreign pundits, relying on economic data that even the Chinese consider unreliable, parrot the case for China’s inevitable rise to global economic dominance.

Carl Minzner briskly and bluntly rejects this position. In “End of an Era: How China’s Authoritarian Revival Is Undermining Its Rise,” he argues that China is not on an unstoppable upward trajectory but has already begun its decline, its prospects for progress sabotaged by the current leadership’s rejection of further political reforms and its reversal of the modest steps taken by past leaders toward a partly commercialized media, limited local elections and other institutions governed by the rule of law.

...

There’s little here that will be new to dedicated China observers or those who read the newspapers closely. But Mr. Minzner’s arguments are lucid, readable and well-sourced, making this compact volume compulsory reading for those who continue to insist that China’s authoritarian governance might be an improvement on democracy. For all the Communist Party’s persistence in identifying its own well-being with that of the Chinese people, it is the people who are in peril, not the Party. Mr. Minzner sees no possible outcome in which the Party is dislodged from power. For China’s communist leaders, that is the best of all possible worlds.

 
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"China's reform era is ending. Core factors that characterized it-political stability, ideological openness, and rapid economic growth-are unraveling. Since the 1990s, Beijing's leaders have firmly rejected any fundamental reform of their authoritarian one-party political system, even as a decades-long boom has reshaped China's economy and society. On the surface, their efforts have been a success. Political turmoil has toppled former Communist East bloc regimes, internal unrest overtaken Middle East nations, and populist movements risen to challenge established Western democracies. China, in contrast, has appeared a relative haven of stability and growth. But as [the author] shows, a closer look at China's reform era reveals a different truth. Over the past three decades, a frozen political system has fueled both the rise of entrenched interests within the Communist Party itself, and the systematic underdevelopment of institutions of governance among state and society at large. Economic cleavages have widened. Social unrest has worsened. Ideological polarization has deepened. Now, to address these looming problems, China's leaders are progressively cannibalizing institutional norms and practices that have formed the bedrock of the regime's stability in the reform era. Technocratic rule is giving way to black-box purges; collective governance sliding back towards single-man rule. The post-1978 era of 'reform and opening up' is ending. China is closing down. Uncertainty hangs in the air as a new future slouches towards Beijing to be born. End of an Era explains how China arrived at this dangerous turning point, and outlines the potential outcomes that could result."--

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